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2306: $5M Bitcoin - Supply Shock Building Faster Than Expected
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- [00:00]
Host JV
Today's episode of Bitcoin News alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive, you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states.
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Host JV
$5 million Bitcoin is no longer a crazy prediction. It is becoming a math problem. And the market hasn't figured it out yet because something just happened behind the scenes that completely breaks how people think about supply and demand. And once you see it, you can't unsee it. Let me show you, my friend. $5 million bitcoin just became mathematically unavoidable. Yesterday proved it. The math just broke. The market hasn't priced it in yet. Michael Sailor, STRC, added 3447 BTC worth $250 million. One company, one day. Now that's nearly eight full days of newly mined bitcoin supply wiped out in one move. Bitcoin produces exactly 450 bitcoin per day awarded to the miners. That's 3150 BTC per week. So when one company removes roughly 3500 bitcoin in a single day, that's not normal demand. That is a supply vacuum forming in real time. In March alone, Strategy bought 44,000 BTC. That's 1,400 Bitcoin per day. That's over 518,000 Bitcoin per year. At that pace, one company is already outpacing the new global supply. And it's not just sailor. A $750 million Canterback firm just revealed its plan to buy up to 150 million in Bitcoin next. That's another 2,000 BTC incoming. And here's the part most people still don't understand. That 344,7 Bitcoin isn't just removed from today's supply, it's removed from the future supply too. Because once bitcoin gets absorbed into the corporate treasuries, the ETFs or long term custody, it rarely comes back to the market. Which means every large buy doesn't just impact the price now, it permanently tightens the market. Moving forward, only 1.9 million Bitcoin are
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
actually available for sale on the exchanges.
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Host JV
Now we put this into perspective. There's over 60 million millionaires in the world. If each just wanted 03 Bitcoin, that's
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
1.8 million Bitcoin demanded almost the entire liquid supply. Now over the last six weeks, 52,519 BTC left exchanges, coal storage, corporate treasuries, long term hodlers, institutional custody. That supply isn't waiting to be bought. It's already been taken. Adam back some claim to be Satoshi just said 10 trillion dollar Morgan Stanley is about to accelerate the Wall street
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Host JV
demand for the bitty and they're already
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
buying the entire mine supply every day. While institutional buy in has still not even started. Meaning we ain't seen nothing yet. Morgan Stanley just had the best ETF launch and in its history not their best crypto ETF, their best ETF launch ever. 16,000 advisers, we're talking $10 trillion in assets and yet one company just wiped out nearly eight days of the global supply in a single shot. Now add another piece. Japan just classified crypto as legitimate financial instruments. At the same time the Japanese bond yields just went parabolic for the first time in 25 years. The bank of Japan is now being forced to raise rates to stabilize the system that matters. It unlocks new capital right as the global liquidity stress forces the capital to find new exits. Because this isn't just a US story anymore. It's not just ETF flows and it's not just Mikey ser. Global capital access is expanding fast. And while that's happening, the market is getting more selective too. Len just officially removed crypto from all products to bitcoin only. The industry itself is consolidating the around bitcoin. Not because it's trendy, because when the real capital, real regulation, a real balance sheet decisions show up. Bitcoin is where capital is converging. Now zoom out and look at the full setup. 450 Bitcoin mined per day. 3500 Bitcoin absorbed yesterday by one company. 52,000 Bitcoin drained from the exchanges in six weeks. Exchange balances at seven year lows. Wall street access, expanding global legal recognition, expanding industry players, increasingly choosing Bitcoin only with only 1.9 million bitcoin actually liquid on the exchanges, that is not a cycle. This is supply compression. And compression doesn't last forever because Bitcoin is still tiny relative to the capital now circling in all competing for the same asset. The total addressable market north of 900 trillion, which includes global equities, global bonds, global real estate, corporate treasuries, ETF platforms, private banks, sovereign pools of capital. And Bitcoin is like 1.3 market cap.
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Host JV
That's.002% of the entire capital of the world, which is a drop in the bucket. So this is enormous. Even a 1% allocation shift from these markets would send trillions of dollars into Bitcoin competing for a supply that's already disappearing, which we're witnessing in real time. Bitcoin supply is fixed. And that's the part people still refuse to understand or process is no mechanism that creates more Bitcoin when demand increases. No supply response, no production ramp, no bailout valve. Only 21 million coins hard capped. And the amount actually available to buy continues shrinking day by day. So what happens when new buyers show up to a market where the float is already drying up? Price doesn't rise neatly. It gaps violently, as Samson calls it, a violent upheaval. That's why the people are still underestimating this move. They think they're watching another normal Bitcoin cycle, but they're not. They're watching a fixed supply asset get cornered in real time by the nation states, by the institutions, corporations, capital markets, and by legal adoption. And if one company can remove nearly eight days of supply in a single day, before institutional buying has even fully started, what do you think happens next? And there's no mechanism to fix that imbalance. No new supply, no relief valve, no second chance once it's gone. Because the real question is no longer whether Bitcoin goes higher. The real question is what? What price clears the market when there's no Bitcoin left to buy? Let that sink in. Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Now, if all this sounds crazy, perfect, because the numbers back it up. This isn't a theory. This is happening literally in real time. Let me show you the actual receipts. Let's start right here, my friends. Michael Sailor's STRC added 3447 Bitcoin worth 250 million yesterday alone. Nearly eight days of the newly mined supply taken right off the market, unapologetically Just like the Gigachad would do, of course. And Sailor said, this is a battle for the future of money. We're talking about easily $200 trillion up for grabs. 400 trillion in 10 years. That's where he believes the bitcoin market cap is heading. And again today it's 1.3 trillion. Run the math. He says the traditional 20th century banking establishment proposes. Give us your money and we'll give you nothing. We'll create the Switzerland of the 21st century. And the Sailor man, he's not bluffing. Yo. Can you see the bitcoin market cap gapping up to $200 trillion or even as high as 400 trillion, ultimately sucking up 40 to 50% of the total addressable market. Where do you think that would land the bitcoin price action? Are you Starting to understand $sat parity becoming a reality in the future? Let me know. Today is Pot episode 2,306. I'm your host JV alongside fetch hair Nipinator Keeping them nip a Nathan. It's sat stacking Saturday. Bitcoin's pricing higher in real time. It's April 11, 2020. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you can save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
you can save when you bundle your
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Host JV
home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.
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Host JV
Now let's take it a step further. You know the Japanese yen carry trade is unwinding. This is a massive story. One of the biggest ones we should focus on. Japanese bond yields just went parabolic for the first time in 25 years. The bank of Japan is now forced to hike interest rates to one and a quarter percent to stabilize the economy. This is not looking good for bitcoin and risk assets. But I disagree because you can't categorize
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
Bitcoin along with the rest of the risk assets.
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Host JV
Because Bitcoin is the one asset with
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
a finite limited supply.
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Host JV
We cannot say the same for any fiat currency which all returns to its original intrinsic value zero. We can't say the same for gold, silver, any other the commodities, oil, etc they can always just discover more. So Bitcoin is the difference. Now Adam Livingston pointed out, imagine when strategy has 4 million Bitcoin and Bitcoin is priced at a million dollars per coin.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
You can issue a lot of credit with 4 trillion of capital. I'm buying MSTR because Strategy will be the most valuable company in the world.
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Host JV
And experts are predicting massive run up
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
on the stock price right now. It's heavily undervalued.
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Host JV
Being able to watch strategy in action and seeing the power of STRC alone is a powerful thing. In March strategy purchased 44000 bitcoins. That is a rate of 1400 a day or 518000 bitties per year. You know, let that one sink in. If you're not familiar with strc, it's one of their new vehicles from strategy which is ultimately paying an 11 and a half percent yield. Tapping into like a 2,300 trillion dollar yield market which is absolutely massive. This just in. 750 million dollar Abra CEO just revealed his Canterback company.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
That's Canter Fish Gerald will buy up
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Host JV
to $150 million in bitcoin. 2000 bitcoin about to evaporate from the market. You know, next massive corporate buy is loading. And thanks to Sailor being the first publicly traded company to put the biddy on the balance sheet back in 2020 there's now 190 plus corporations that have Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Right, and they're all following in the footsteps of Michael the Sailor man too. Now next up, Morgan Stanley just broke their own record. Best first day of any E test they have ever, ever launched Bitcoin. Day one, historic. Not their best crypto ETF, not their best 2025 ETF. Their best ETF launch ever. 16,000 advisors along with $10 trillion worth of assets about to have access to bitcoin. And that's a record breaking day one. Just the beginning. Now I believe this ETF in particular for bitcoin was so successful that just launched because they have the lowest fee. There's nothing even remotely close. So it creates the term game theory where you're going to have these ETFs basically competing over lower fees to attract more capital, you know, get a bigger
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
piece of the pie.
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Host JV
So very smart move by Morgan Stanley. Now also officially announced Japan passed the major law. This is breaking news. Classifying crypto assets as legitimate financial instruments. It is now the US's turn. The time has come.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
That's right.
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Host JV
So it's official Japan.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
Konichiwa. Game on baby.
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Host JV
Now check it Adam back just said 10 trillion dollar Morgan Stanley is about to accelerate Wall street demand for the biddy. They are also ready buying the entire mind supply every day. Now how many corporations or institutions are going to be able to buy? You know more than the daily mind supply.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
Run the math. Can you say supply Shock fam.
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Host JV
Now institutional buy in has still not even started on the grand scheme of things again $1.3 trillion market of Bitcoin is a drop in the bucket compared to where we're heading now. 500 million let in officially removes crypto from products. Now they're exclusively Bitcoin only. The writing is on the wall my friends. Our clients want us to focus on Bitcoin Precisely.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
This is the way of the dragon. As Bruce Lee would say. Rest in peace Bruce.
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Host JV
And of course shout out my man Chuck Norris.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
Now these are the exchange outflows over the last six weeks.
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Host JV
I just want to give big picture total over the past six weeks.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
52519 Bitcoin net outflow numbers don't lie. Check the scoreboard now. Also Strategies MSTR Bitcoin ambition is reshaping corporate finance. Everyone else fallen behind.
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Host JV
The Bitcoin numbers from March are hard
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
to ignore and are bullish at first glance. Public private Companies collectively added 47,435 Bitcoin to their Treasuries last month. And of course Sailor has the lion share over at Strategy worth roughly 3.2 billion at the month end prices. But strip away one name from the ledger and the picture shifts dramatically. Nearly every one of those coins was bought by the one and only Michael Sailor Strategy. Everyone else collectively is in retreat according to Bitcoin Treasuries Net. I guess not all corporate treasuries are built the same. That divergence is becoming the defining story of the corporate bitcoin adoption this year in 2026 strategy purchased 44377 bitties in March alone, including one of its largest ever single week purchases. 22337 Bitcoin disclosed March 16 funded by 1 1/2 billion in ATM sales from the STRC prefer shares and MSTR common stock. Also Sailor more recently like a week ago announced going to be raising another like 44 billion, half of it via STRC, the other half MSTR to be able to buy more Bitcoin. This train is not slowing down. The company now controls 2/3 of all Bitcoin held by public companies and its holdings sit at roughly 762,000 BTC with
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Host JV
a plausible if aggressive path to 1 million. In fact sailor goal is to get to 2 million which would be roughly 10% of the supply. But that's total supply, the liquid supply. It have practically the entire liquid supply at that point. Right? Because if there's 1.9 million bitcoin even available right now that are liquid and his goal is to get to 2 million, he wants it all now. To understand how strategy keeps buying at this scale and what Bitcoin Treasuries net describes as a bare market, you really need to understand strc, the company's variable rate perpetual preferred share product. STRC targets a price near 100 bucks and currently yields 11 and a half percent annually reset monthly. It sits above common shareholders and Strategies capital structure, offering more predictable returns than MSTR stock while still being anchored to the Bitcoin treasury underneath March was a watershed moment for the instrument. STRC recorded its highest ever single day trading volume on March 12, 746 million, followed by its second highest March 31 at 520. That's a half a billion in a day, bro. Weekly volumes hit 2.27 billion. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you can save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if
- [16:58]
Co-host or Guest Analyst
you can save when you bundle your
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Host JV
home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.
- [17:12]
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Host JV
Uncovered repairs from March 9th to the 13th alone. That demand didn't just set records, it funded Bitcoin buying strategies 8k for the week March 9th through the 15th reported 1.2 billion in strc atm proceeds and almost 400 million in mstr proceeds together financing the record 22,337 Bitcoin purchase strategy has now filed for a 42 billion dollar atm program split evenly between strc and mstr plus an additional 2.1 billion in strk. That's why I referenced earlier raising another 44 billion collectively to buy more Bitcoin. If proceeds arrive at a rate of 2.3 billion monthly over the 19 months and Bitcoin hovers where we're nearly at of 75, strategy can reach 1 million Bitcoin by November 2026. Also this week I'm predicting sailors going to overtake the largest Bitcoin ETF ibit, which has roughly just shy of 800000 Bitcoin right now because they're so close to them and all it takes is another big purchase. And just do the math. A million Bitcoin. That's virtually half the liquid supply held by one company. Supply shock a more conservative projection using Strategy's average monthly buy rate of 21000 bitcoins since January 2025 pushes that date to March 2027. Here's one thing.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
He's going to hit the goal. The question is, does it happen sooner
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Host JV
or a little later now the bitcoin leaderboard in free fall March also triggered a major leaderboard reshuffling reflecting just how different the playbook looks outside of sailor's orbit. For example, Mara holdings, one of the second largest public bitcoin treasuries they just
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
sold 15000 Bitcoin probably to pay expenses I would assume as the miners, you
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Host JV
know, kind of getting hit right now. Worth roughly 1.1 billion to repurchase convertible senior notes.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
The sale wiped nearly 28 of its previous holdings.
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Host JV
And as bitcoin treasuries nets Tyler Rowe
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
put it, MERA borrowed aggressively to stack sats during the bull run and is now selling bitcoin at a loss to service the debt. This is the precise scenario critics debt fuel treasury strategies have warned about.
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Host JV
We also have Jack Mahler's 21 to
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
move into second place currently with 43,
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Host JV
514 Bitcoin who is partnered with Canter
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
Fitzgerald which Howard Lutnick's company as well as Tether who are a major player in the game.
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Host JV
They're going to be stashing major bitcoin. Jack Mullers even just recently announced a massive acquisition coming.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
We also have Gamestop. There's rumors they're collectively making their company into a bitcoin treasury play as well, you know. So public company bitcoin accumulation. What's going on is the million dollar question. Will any companies be able to compete with the Gigachad Michael Saylor and what's happening and around STRC and all this good stuff? Let me know fam.
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Host JV
And can you see Bitcoin striking a 200 trillion even as much as 400 trillion dollar market cap. And can you see $sat parity potential? $100 million per coin? Let me know your thoughts. And how do you feel about the Japanese gen car unwinding and the bullishness? Do you think that's bullish for bitcoin or not? I think it's one of the most bullish things happening underneath. You know what people can see right now behind closed doors. But I want to know your thoughts fam. I personally think the repricing will be violent. Things are going to get so exciting. Just like in the first cycle of Bitcoin we saw 100x returns. I'm not saying history is to repeat, but if history is to rhyme, holy moly. We're in for the ride of our lives. Bitcoin's on sale, soon to be sold out. Preach. They're using bitcoin straight of Hermus, which JB mentioned yesterday. Exactly. It's like a dollar per barrel in tariff. So each ship has to pay roughly $2 million worth of Bitcoin to pass.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
Massive.
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Host JV
And we did a deep dive on that. The smart money is accumulating bitcoin like there's no tomorrow. And I showed you all the receipts and all the proof and all the evidence in today's podcast. Reality always beats theory. Let's get it. Ah. Who the F is selling their bitcoin? Especially to the likes of Wall street, sailor Elon, Etc. You're about to walk the plank with bags of gold around your ankles. Preach. An obscure fact about bitcoin and its network. It can and use securely transfer millions in funds globally and totally secure in minutes.
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Co-host or Guest Analyst
No other payment rail can compete, Preach. Not even Palm Beach Pete.
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Host JV
Tickets to Escape the Matrix are priced in bitcoin. The doing. And if you enjoyed today's show, smash that subscribe button. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.
- [22:42]
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