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2326: $300 Trillion Capital Targets Bitcoin - Supply Hits All-Time Low
00:20:16
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- [00:00]
JV
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- [00:24]
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- [00:54]
JV
Bitcoin just crossed the line of no return. And what you're watching right now isn't a normal market anymore. Something just flipped and once you see it, you can't unsee it. And the people who understand this first won't be waiting for a dip. They'll be buying whatever's left. Let me show you. Samson Mow just said the four year cycle is dead. Not slowing down, not changing dead. Bitcoin is now heading towards $1 million per coin. This isn't just opinion. Michael Sailor said the same thing. Bitcoin has won. The four year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. Let that sink in. Because what just changed in Bitcoin isn't hype, it's structure right now. And the amount of bitcoin on the exchanges just hit an all time low, down another 62,242 BTC in the last nine weeks. So what happens next when capital flows accelerate and the supply available to sell is already disappearing? I'm glad you asked. Let me show you. April continued the outflows and March saw an even larger drain. This is a pattern and it tells you one thing. The people buying Bitcoin right now are not planning to sell it. This is long term capital. Sticky capital. That sticky, icky permanent capital that changes how price moves. Because bitcoin doesn't need everyone to buy, it only needs a small percentage of capital to move. Let's zoom out. The global credit market is over $300 trillion. That's not a typo. 300 trillion. At the same time, Bitcoin is plugging directly into it. So through ETFs, through corporate treasuries, structured products and through lending and collateralization. Even a 1% shift, just 1% is 3 trillion flowing into Bitcoin. And here's the problem. There isn't even $3 trillion worth of Bitcoin available. Period. Not even close. Supply isn't just fixed, it's disappearing. El Salvador still buying smash, buying a bitty a day tether, stacking billions of Bitcoin for from profits. They have close to 98,000 bitcoin on the balance sheet. Public companies are accumulating. And now nation state game theory just entered the game. Taiwan lawmakers just proposed converting a portion of their $600 billion of reserves into Bitcoin. That's not retail, that's sovereign capital. And it's not just talk. The United States already holds over 300,000 Bitcoin and is introducing legislation to formalize a new strategic Bitcoin reserve. Not to trade it, not to rotate it to hoddle. When one country moves, others are forced to follow. Meanwhile, Jack Dorsey just launched proof of reserves to 60 million users. Millions of people are now being shown in real time the Bitcoin is fully backed, scarce and real. That builds trust, Trust drives adoption and adoption drives demand. So now you have three forces colliding all at once. We got the capital flows accelerating, supply disappearing and adoption expanding. That's not a cycle, that's a structural shift. This is why the old model breaks. The four year cycle was based on minor supply shocks. As you know, every four years we experience a having scheduled reductions. But that's not what's driving this anymore. Before Bitcoin moved in cycles. Now it moves when capital moves. Now its capital flows, its institutions, its sovereigns and its credit markets. And those don't operate on a four year timer. They move when opportunity appears. And when that opportunity becomes obvious, it moves fast. Faster than most people expect, Faster than most people can react. Because by the time most investors realize what's happening, the supply is already gone. So when people hear one million dollar Bitcoin they think it's a prediction, a guess, a stretch. But it's not. It's math. You if trillions of dollars enter and the available supply keeps shrinking, price doesn't move gradually, it reprices violently. Not 100,000 or 200,000, not even 500,000, but into the millions as the only level high enough to force the long term holders to even consider selling their precious little bitties. Because that's the final piece most people miss. Bitcoin isn't just scarce, it's owned by people who don't want to sell. So when demand hits and there's no inventory, only price discovery and that's where this is heading. Not, not another cycle, not another pump, but a supply driven repricing event on a global scale. So the real question isn't will bitcoin go higher. The real question is when the next wave of capital hits and there's nothing left to buy at these prices, what price is the market forced to pay? Let me know yo in the comments because what I just laid out is exactly why this next clip matters. Because this isn't just a theory anymore.
- [05:34]
Crypto Analyst
Listen to this unfolding of events shows that there is no such thing as a four year cycle because we hit an all time high before the having and then we reached a new all time high but not a very euphoric all time high post having and people seem to think that that is the top and you know we're gonna be down for the next couple years but I just don't think that's the case. Everything is up in the air now and I think an Omega candle and one million dollar bitcoin is just around the corner. Especially with all the buy pressure that is flooding the market now with Sailor through STRC and other Bitcoin treasury company players all coming in, I don't think there is enough supply for them.
- [06:15]
JV
Supply shock. Incoming. Send it. Omega candle, Omega candle and times that by 10 will be at a million dollars. For those not familiar with the Omega candle, it's a hundred thousand dollar candle on the daily chart. All I got to say to that. Send it now. Michael Sailor says Bitcoin has won global consensus is that Bitcoin is digital capital. The four year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine Bitcoin's growth trajectory. Preach it Sailor. Now I got to share with you this chart. Bitcoin balance on the exchanges hit an all time low supply shock incoming. A lot of people think there's always going to be 21 million coins but not as the coins continue to be locked away in cold storage permanently. Also consider that the available supply on the exchanges is not the true liquid available supply. When we look at on chain analytics we typically will see a range 2.4 to 2.7 million bitscoin available. But the liquid available supply is close to 1.9 million because some of those bitcoins are locked up, maybe for example as collateral. So just because there is so many bitcoin doesn't mean you're able to buy all those bitcoins.
- [07:38]
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- [08:08]
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- [08:36]
JV
Yeah so today is pod episode 2326. I'm your host JV alongside fed chair Nipinator keeping them nip a natin happy Sat stacking Saturday the total over the last nine weeks of outflows on the exchanges 6224 2. Also the whales wallets are surging. Smart money accumulating 1000 plus Bitcoin wallets rising fast. Demand outpacing supply by 6x. Less liquid supply, more conviction. Classic pre rally setup. You already know when the whales are accumulating. Nipinators and nipinating Sailor said every major US bank has flipped from hostile to bullish on Bitcoin over the last six months. Eight of the top 10 banks are now offering crypto lending. The big banks are bending the knee.
- [09:24]
Banking Expert
What we've seen is BNY Mellon, PNC Bank, Citibank, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, bank of America, Vanguard. All of these have flipped from a hostile, negative or skeptical view to a positive view in the last 12 months. Schwab is going to custody Bitcoin and extend credit against crypto assets early next year. Citi is doing the same thing it used to be. You know, I couldn't get a loan against Bitcoin from any major bank. And now if I counted the top 10 banks in the United States, eight of them are actually engaged in crypto lending and they've all flipped their stance in the last six months.
- [10:05]
JV
Powerful to witness. All the major banks and institutions do a full 180. JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, a great example of that, went from threatening his own employees for touching bitcoin. They'd be fired to, you know, launching his own trading desk and now fully embracing bitcoin. And of course, why wouldn't they? Bitcoin is pristine collateral. It's perfect money. Of course the banks want your bitcoin. And this thing is just starting at the institutional level. We ain't seen nothing yet. This just in tether add 63 bitcoin. They now officially hold 97, 204 bitcoin. 6. 7.6 billion bitcoin stack, 191 billion worth of total assets, a $8.2 billion buffer. 15% of the profits consistently move in a bitcoin. They're now the second largest corporate holder, right behind Michael Sailor, who currently has over 815,000 bitcoin with ambitions of hitting 2 million bitcoin, roughly 10% of the supply. So they're massive. Tether's going to continue to accumulate as they're doing. Also, Senator Lummis just announced the bitcoin and crypto clarity will have its markup in May. And guess what? We're in May. Take that.
- [11:16]
Senator Cynthia Lummis
Evil doers, I want to thank you for the tremendous opportunity to craft legislation in Washington. We are going to mark up the Clarity act in May. We are going to get it to the finish line. We are going to have the market structure that allows us to innovate you to innovate America, to lead the world on this freedom asset.
- [11:40]
JV
There you go. Cynthia Lummis recently at the bitcoin conference. Just a few days ago. Bitcoin has come a long ways. Now this global race for bitcoin accumulation continues with nations around the world. Breaking news. Taiwan lawmakers just urged to convert their $600 billion forex reserves into bitcoin. This is pretty massive. As game theory continues playing out, also El Salvador continues stacking. They bought 1633 Bitcoin since January of this year, now holding 7638 Bitcoin worth around $600 million. Salute President Bukel and the beautiful people over in bitcoin country. I love to see that. And you got to give respect where respect is due because Bukel was the first bitcoin legal tender back in 2021, one year after sailor became the first publicly traded company to put bitcoin on the balance sheet. And the rest is history. Billionaire Jack Dorsey's cash app officially launched proof of reserves this week. He is proving to 60 million users they hold 100% of their Bitcoin. This is the way. Let me know if you think Sailor should do the same thing with strategy. Bitcoin based money supply hits 1.8 trillion, the seventh largest globally at the end of quarter four, 2025. And there's predictions from Michael Sailor that bitcoin will become the largest asset class in the world over the next 48 months. Let me know if you agree with that. So here you can see gold is the 26 trillion. Right below that in the blue is the Chinese yuan at 5.7 trillion and and then you have the US$5,4 trillion and the list goes on. Jack Mers broke the bull meter live on TV says Bitcoin isn't going to 150, it's going for everything. Take it away Jack.
- [13:33]
Jack Mers
I think bitcoin's going after that market. It's going after a market of 400 to 500 trillion dollars worth and right now it's two and a half trillion. So I think in purchasing power terms Bitcoin can go up 100 to 200 times more from here.
- [13:43]
JV
So I want to talk about this real quick because there's a lot of naysayers. Little bitcoin. Why do you talk about a million dollars? Is that we're going to a million. Let's, let's talk about that maybe when we can cross 100,000, maybe return to the all time high. But guess what? We're tapping into hundreds of trillions of dollars of pools of capital, savings, digital credit and it doesn't stop there. So the total addressable market on the planet is north of 900 trillion. Today Bitcoin's a one and a half trillion dollar market cap. And you don't think Bitcoin can 10x and hit a million dollars? We're going to 100, 200x from here. Mark my words. You're not bullish enough. Now the number of people who own bitcoin, well naturally India has the largest population. They have 93 million Bitcoin users. The United States not far behind. Considering we're a much smaller population sitting at 46 million. Then we got China at 41 million and Nigeria at 18 million. As the global adoption continues, banking the unbanked. Now Adam back on his bet. The bitcoin will hit a million dollars by 2028.
- [14:48]
Crypto Analyst
Where do you think we're going through the rest of this year?
- [14:50]
Crypto Investor
I mean it's hard to predict in the very short term but I think personally that bitcoin is a bit mispriced at this level. I Think the institutional interest is coming, but it takes longer to arrive than people expected. I have coincidentally a bet with somebody on Twitter that bitcoin would reach a million dollars by the end of this cycle, which is spring 2028. So whenever the halving date loans we'll see. I mean it's a proposition bet. We'll see if that lands or not. But another one which was that bitcoin would reach parity with gold.
- [15:20]
JV
So there you have it. If Satoshi believes bitcoin's heading to a million dollars by 2028, where do you believe bitcoin will be by the time of the next having which is around April of 2028. Drop it in the comments below. Now Strategy CEO Fung Lee on STRC at the Bitcoin 2026 conference says the global credit market's 300 trillion 1% of that's just 3 trillion of STRC, which is strategies vehicle, which pays those yields of 7 or 11 and a half percent, captures 1% at triples Bitcoin's assets under management. That alone sends Bitcoin at 210 to 230,000. That's all I'm asking for 1%. Check it out.
- [16:01]
Fung Lee
$300 trillion is the entire credit universe. If we could take 1% of that, that's $3 trillion. If we could create a digital credit category that in five years is $3 trillion, that'll mean that we're going to triple the AUM of Bitcoin just from digital credit, which means we could triple the price of bitcoin to, you know, $210,000 or $230,000 just with digital credit
- [16:28]
JV
very powerful right there. Just by 1% of that pool of capital from digital credit flowing into bitcoin would triple the bitcoin price. Now what if they captured 5% or 10%? We 10x that number. All of a sudden we're sitting above $2 million per coin. Send it. And with Michael Saylor, I have no fucking doubt it's going to be a frenzy. A supply shock, omega candle all combined in one with a nip an eight or indicator. Nip an eight or licking indicator. There's no indicator greater.
- [17:00]
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- [17:31]
JV
Michael Saylor revealed the end game. They plan to buy $100 billion worth of Bitcoin. And he says if I can get seven and a half percent of the network, it's 10 million a coin. We top out at seven and a half percent and then we'd slow down.
- [17:44]
Banking Expert
What I've said is, is if we get to 5% of the network, bitcoin's going to be a million a coin. If I get to seven and a half percent of the network, it'll be 10 million of coin.
- [17:52]
JV
Pretty interesting. So, yeah, he's projecting getting seven and a half percent of all the bitcoin that will ever be in existence. And that will send a bitcoin price alone to 10 million per coin. Bring it. Telegram CEO says he thinks bitcoin will go to a million dollars. He says the governments keep printing money like no tomorrow. Nobody is printing bitcoin. Preach.
- [18:12]
Pavel Durov
Do you think bitcoin will go to a million dollars?
- [18:14]
JV
Do you think it'll keep increasing?
- [18:15]
Pavel Durov
Nobody can confiscate your bitcoin from you. Nobody can censor you for political reasons. And I believe it will come to a point when bitcoin is worth $1 million. Just look at the trends. The governments keep printing money like no tomorrow. Nobody's printing bitcoin.
- [18:30]
JV
Respect to Pavel there. That's the founder of Telegram. He claims Telegram never really produced him an income, only cost him money because he's an advocate of free speech. And obviously those who are proponents for free speech and sovereignty and things of that nature embrace bitcoin fully because that's what bitcoin is all about. And bitcoin is peace and love. Fiat equals war, violence and Epstein is all I'm saying. Now check this out. Kathy Wood, Arc Invest CEO, on the rollup today, says the bull case for 20, 31 and a half million per bitty base case, 730 GS. She says the Bitcoin bull market's still intact, down 50% as a victory compared to previous cycles. We were down 85 or even 95% for the alts. Yeah, like Melania Coin, down 99% since launch. That's what happens with shitcoinery. Take it away, Kathy.
- [19:27]
Kathy Wood
Bitcoin bull market is still intact. I realize we've been through what many would call a bear market, and yet down 50% is a victory compared to down 85 or 95 bear market for ants. Kathy, we do believe that bitcoin will get to new all time highs in this next cycle. Many people don't but we do. And you know that. We're on record saying that our base case for 2030 is 730 000. Our bull case is 1.5 million.
- [20:00]
JV
Well there you go. I just shared with you some of the most brilliant minds in the space and what's one thing they all have in common, Belief and faith in bitcoin and where it's heading and bitcoin and what it represents and what it means for humanity. This bitcoin train is not stopping, the speed is accelerating and and it's at the point you either get your position or you get priced out. Because before you know it the supply shock will reflect in the prices. Right now it doesn't reflect. It's not priced in 78,000. You're practically getting a 40% discount from the top. It's not always going to be this way. Before you know it we'll start escalating in price action because there will be no more bitcoin supply available. And you have people like Sailor and Larry Fink and Jack Mahlers and Pavel and Ricardo Salinas and all the OGs accumulating at unprecedented levels. You can never print more bitcoin. Unlike fiat currency which eventually all returns to Its original intrinsic value 0 Bitcoin, true scarcity, perfect money, pristine collateral for that reason alone. And what Pavel mentioned, what's so profound to me, un confiscatable. Your government can't take it or seize it from you. If that's not profound, I don't know what is. And that's when Eric Trump said at the bitcoin conference we will go to the millions, easy peasy. Screw the price. I'm worried about how many sats and bitcoin I have. You want a new hat from the conference? Absolutely. Of course. You can't short your dorks. Something I collect as hats if you guys haven't figured it out. Hats and sats, sats and hats, collectibles and rare Charizards and Pokemon illustrator PSA10s. Gotta catch them all. If you look at the trends, Bitcoin will hit a million sooner than we think. It's inevitable. Bitcoin will be a million this side of 2030. Send it. When the next wave of capital hits and there's nothing left on the exchanges, what price do you think bitcoin is forced to to reprice to? Let me know. And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hle.