Currents Podcast Ep318: TDK Ventures on Emerging Energy Tech

Host: Todd Alexander, Norton Rose Fulbright
Guest: Nicola Savage, President of TDK Ventures
Date: October 2, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Todd Alexander interviews Nicola Savage, president of TDK Ventures, to explore the dynamic intersection of advanced energy technologies and venture capital. The conversation dives deep into the role of sodium ion batteries, the explosion of AI-driven energy demand, and VC strategies for backing capital-intensive, transformative tech. Nicola provides candid insights into how TDK Ventures navigates future uncertainties, makes investment decisions, and seeks to catalyze advances in decarbonization—even in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

TDK Ventures’ Philosophy and Approach (02:00)

• Exploration and 'Backcasting':
  Nicola emphasizes that TDK Ventures isn’t just about “guessing the future” but constructing different plausible scenarios ("features") and then working backward to identify the investment gaps and promising solutions.

  “Our mission is exploration…We look at different types of futures…let’s imagine a fragmented, heavily geopolitical driven friction, and let’s invest according to that type of future.”
  — Nicola Savage, [02:00]

• Portfolio Construction:
  TDK Ventures invests in various scenarios—some favoring lithium, others sodium ion—hedging bets against unpredictable supply and pricing.

The Case for Sodium Ion Batteries (02:40)

• Why Sodium Ion?

  • Grid energy storage requires massive capacity—energy density isn’t paramount, making sodium ion a strong contender for non-mobility applications.

  • Sodium ion excels at operating across wide temperature ranges and offers supply chain advantages compared to lithium.

  • Sodium’s relevance increases under potential geopolitical supply restrictions on lithium.

    “If you think about grid scale, energy storage space is not an issue…it’s not like your phone or your car…[so] other metrics are valuable…that’s what sodium ion can do.”
    — Nicola Savage, [02:43]

• Unit Economics & Timeline:

  • Sodium ion is currently not at parity with lithium but is on a path to be cost-competitive, especially for grid storage, within 3-5 years—assuming growth in demand and successful tech maturation.

    “I definitely see it probably within three to five years where we can really make the progress…assuming first, no grants, no subsidies.”
    — Nicola Savage, [04:43]

AI-Driven Energy Demand: Bottlenecks & Opportunities (06:10)

• AI Accelerates Power Needs:
  As AI drives a surge in energy demand, bottlenecks in energy delivery arise—creating opportunities for new storage and generation technologies.

• Expanding the Decarbonization Toolbox:
  Besides lithium, wind, and solar, TDK Ventures invests in:

  • Sodium ion storage

  • Nuclear fusion (Type 1 Energy)

  • Green hydrogen (Verdigi)

  • Battery recycling (Ascend Elements)

  • Lithium extraction (Novalis)

    “We have three amazing decarbonization solution[s]: lithium ion batteries, wind and solar…We’ve been investing in solutions that will increase that tool set. Sodium ion batteries is one of them…We’ve invested in Type 1 Energy—nuclear fusion…”
    — Nicola Savage, [06:51]

VC Investment in Capital-Intensive Energy Tech (09:42)

• Challenging Conventional VC Wisdom:
  Deep tech and infrastructure require significant capital and time, but can become massive returners (e.g., Tesla).

  “I think it’s a myth to think that decarbonization and capital intensive companies can’t become 10 billion, 100 billion or even trillion dollar companies.”
  — Nicola Savage, [10:20]

• Investment Criteria:

  • Preference for seed/Series A entry at good valuations.
  • Targeting markets expected to grow to $10B+ in 5-7 years.
  • Looking for “king of the hill”—potential market leaders positioned for eventual dominance and financial/strategic returns.

• Deep Tech Benefits:
  Large moats and barriers can benefit first VC entrants:

  “These are actually the ones with the biggest moat…If we invest early, before the market has picked up, we have a chance to do really well.”
  — Nicola Savage, [12:56]

  • Illustration: Ascend Elements (EV battery recycling): A zero-market opportunity at investment time, but with mathematically predictable exponential demand later.

Changing Exit Models & Staying Private (16:55)

• Exits Have Evolved:

  • Private companies can now secure large valuations and capital without going public.

  • Secondaries (private share sales) have become a positive tool, letting VCs return cash to LPs while retaining upside.

  • Companies pushing long-term missions often choose to stay private.

    “Today…the need for a company to go public is no longer as strong…Some are proving to be extremely good fundraiser[s] without having to go public.”
    — Nicola Savage, [17:17]

Navigating Geopolitics & Policy (19:35)

• No-Subsidy Thesis:

  • TDK Ventures only invests when it believes in a subsidy-independent path to positive economics.

  • Investments are made to survive different geopolitical futures; some bets benefit under certain policies, others under different ones.

    “When we make investments, we assume no subsidies…We have to make sure that these features are not correlated…but as orthogonal as they can be between them…”
    — Nicola Savage, [20:22]

Nuclear Fusion & Long-Horizon Technologies (22:19)

• Why Invest in Long Tail Technologies?

  • VC involvement now makes sense given the possibility of large valuation jumps at milestones (de-risking science, tech, execution, or sales).

  • The rise of secondaries allows venture investors liquidity during the long commercialization cycles.

    “Every milestone that a company…would deliver would probably create…I’m not saying 10x every time…but probably not too far off…The valuation would grow quite quickly.”
    — Nicola Savage, [23:06]

Venture Thinking: “Backcasting” the Future (25:24)

• Not Guesswork, But Constructed Vision:
  Nicola emphasizes that he isn’t “guessing” the future, but rather mapping plausible futures and identifying solutions to bridge gaps.

  “I’m not trying to guess the future, I’m just defining a different type of features which is not improbable…These gaps typically have amazing entrepreneurs already working on filling these gaps.”
  — Nicola Savage, [25:52]

• Portfolio Diversification:

  • Dreaming up “beautiful futures” or preparing for dark scenarios, and investing accordingly to ensure a broad, diversified bet.

Underserved Opportunities & Policy Blind Spots (29:09)

• Powering AI as an Underserved Opportunity:
  The convergence of digital (AI) and energy transformation is both highly promising and lacking in sufficient VC/policy attention.

  • Nuclear fusion is seen as the perfect solution for hyperscaler (AI) power demand—with spillover benefits to society at large if the tech succeeds.

    “…where there’s a lot of attention and yet I still believe it’s highly underserved, is how do you power AI and how do you scale these power solutions for AI…Nuclear fusion is the obvious example of the perfect solutions for this type of future.”
    — Nicola Savage, [29:35]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Sodium ion is not today at the level of lithium, absolutely not. But we can definitively see the path…”
  — Nicola Savage, [04:43]

• “I think any VC who had invested early in Tesla did very well…”
  — Nicola Savage, [10:20]

• “Our job is not to guess the market will be big. We know it will be very big. Our job is to find the king of the hill.”
  — Nicola Savage, [13:51]

• “Staying private longer is so much stronger…You had new tools that are being seen positively…”
  — Nicola Savage, [17:27]

• “We have to make sure that these features are not correlated but as orthogonal…”
  — Nicola Savage, [20:22]

• “If nuclear fusion can deliver on its promises…the market size is huge and we’re talking about growing the pie versus just taking away from others.”
  — Nicola Savage, [23:17]

• “I’m not trying to guess the future…I think no one can guess the future…but it’s not very hard to define what the future could look like, make some assumptions and backcast from it.”
  — Nicola Savage, [25:52]

• “Nuclear fusion is the obvious example…where hyperscalers demand huge amount of power…that would then benefit from powering your car, powering your home…nearly free.”
  — Nicola Savage, [29:49]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:00] – TDK Ventures’ Investment Philosophy & Backcasting
• [02:43] – The Technical and Strategic Case for Sodium Ion Batteries
• [04:43] – Unit Economics and Timelines for Sodium Ion Adoption
• [06:51] – AI and Growing Energy Demand: Expanding the Energy Toolbox
• [09:42] – VC Challenges/Opportunities in Capital-Intensive Sectors
• [12:56] – Deep Tech Investing: Moats and Market Leadership
• [16:55] – New Models for VC Exits and Private Market Growth
• [20:22] – Managing Geopolitical Risk with Portfolio Orthogonality
• [23:06] – Rationale for VC in Nuclear Fusion & Long Horizon Tech
• [25:52] – “Backcasting” versus Guessing the Future in VC
• [29:35] – Powering AI: The Convergence of Digital and Energy Tech

Conclusion

Nicola Savage offers a compelling window into how forward-thinking venture capital can shape the future of energy and technology—even amid geopolitical uncertainty and capital intensity. He argues for strategic, diversified bets, an embrace of challenging timelines, and the use of new VC tools to unlock value. Most importantly, Nicola’s vision emphasizes investing in “the king of the hill” who will drive massive market and societal impact, especially as the digital and energy revolutions converge.