Podcast Summary: Currents, Ep332 - “Forecasting Energy Trends for 2026”

Host: Todd Alexander, Norton Rose Fulbright
Guest: Robbie Orvis, Senior Director at Energy Innovation
Date: January 29, 2026
Length: ~21 minutes

Overview

In this episode, Todd Alexander speaks with Robbie Orvis about the transformative energy trends of 2025 and their projected impacts for 2026. With substantial policy shifts following political changes—especially after the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—the two discuss the future of renewables, grid storage, the effects of rising electricity prices, and the uncertain outlook for data center expansion. They blend sobering analysis with cautious optimism, exploring both bullish and bearish market areas, and the need for holistic solutions to rising utility rates.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Challenges of Prognostication

• Forecasting as a Learning Tool:
  • Robbie Orvis echoes the sentiment that the value in forecasting isn’t accuracy but in revealing surprises and unexpected outcomes (00:38).

    “The reason we do forecast is not because we think we're going to get it right, but so that we can look back and see if we were surprised because it was something we didn't expect.” — Todd Alexander [00:40]

2. 2025 Policy Shifts and Sector Impacts

• Permitting and Tax Credit Changes:

  • The new administration slowed down the issuing of new permits, severely impacting both offshore and onshore wind projects (01:44).

  • The “One Big Beautiful Bill” altered tax credits, further dampening wind deployment while creating uncertainty for solar.

  • Offshore Wind: Facing "stop work" orders and negative regulatory outlook, Robbie describes it as being "hammered."

  • Onshore Wind: Suffering less, but still anticipated to see a significant drop in deployment.

  • Solar PV: Somewhat resilient due to developers fast-tracking projects before credits expire; possible near-term deployment surge, but long-term prospects remain uncertain.

  • Grid-Scale Storage: Seen as "the darling of both parties," with bipartisan support expected to drive strong growth (02:50).

    “[Solar] might be a strong year for utility scale solar despite all of these seemingly negative policy changes.” — Robbie Orvis [02:25]

3. Quantifying the Impact on Renewables

• Modeling Results:

  • Orvis reports their modeling predicts a 75% drop in onshore wind deployment due to the policy changes (04:23).

  • Solar’s decline appears more muted because of cost declines and favorability in siting.

  • A “pull-forward” effect: Developers are expediting projects to qualify for remaining credits, leading to a near-term bump in solar.

  • Increased demand projections, especially with limited supply from gas turbine manufacturers, could act as a mitigating factor and support solar/storage growth.

    “Onshore wind is really, you know, heavily contingent on the availability of those tax credits... I think about a 3/4 drop in deployments.” — Robbie Orvis [04:24]

4. Bullish Sectors and Emerging Technologies

• Battery Storage:

  • Foreseen as a primary growth segment, especially with continued tax incentives.

  • Enhanced Geothermal: Early-stage, but “quite promising,” citing companies like Fervo and Eber as innovators.

  • Small Modular Reactors (SMRs): Hopes for commercialization, but progress still uncertain.

  • Long Duration Storage (Iron Air): Potential for the first commercial-scale project coming online soon.

    "Battery storage... is really in a prime spot for growth.” — Robbie Orvis [06:49]

5. Energy Prices and Political Pressure

• Rising Energy Prices:

  • Regional power price increases are driving political calls to address affordability.

  • However, Orvis is skeptical about near-term ability to materially lower rates.

  • Utility settlements may provide short-term relief, but often involve cost deferrals.

  • The main drivers of rising bills: not just generation but also transmission, distribution, and on-bill add-ons.

  • Bottlenecks in interconnection and permitting, plus the capital costs of infrastructure, are major cost drivers (09:31).

    “It's going to be very hard, bordering on impossible to make a material impact to [high prices] in the near term.” — Robbie Orvis [09:32]

  • Fuel Prices: Stability in gas prices is vital; continued high gas prices will keep upward pressure on wholesale electricity rates and, thus, consumer bills.

6. Data Centers, EV Growth, and Load Realities

• Vulnerability to Energy Market Dynamics:

  • Data center load projections may be overstated; PJM already revised its forecasts downward.

  • Some data centers are pursuing self-generation (buying, reopening, or converting plants), but the host/guest share skepticism about the feasibility for most operators (13:23–15:11).

  • Flexibility in data center operations (e.g., willingness to operate less consistently) may become more common if grid access is delayed.

    “If the utility is going to tell me that I can't connect for seven years, maybe I can find some flexibility.” — Robbie Orvis [15:17]

  • Legislative moves (e.g., enabling data center micro-grids) are emerging, but practical barriers—like required reliability—remain high.

7. Market Outlook (2026 and Beyond)

• Short-Term:
  • Solar and storage deployment may peak or remain strong due to “pull forward” from expiring tax credits.
  • Wind expected to significantly contract.
• Medium-to-Long Term:

  • “Major headwinds” loom after the initial solar/storage boom, likely leading to fewer renewable installations, accelerating rate hikes, and increased political dissatisfaction (16:25–17:21).

  • Data centers will face tough choices, perhaps seeking new locations or methodologies.

  • Utility bills will face heightened scrutiny, with possible efforts to shift non-electricity costs elsewhere.

    “I still think rates are going up, things [will] be really hard except for these negotiated solutions which… are paperwork shuffling more than a material difference in capital investment.” — Robbie Orvis [18:19]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Always a dangerous game, prognostication. I think you can be certain you'll be wrong, but it's how wrong will you be?” — Robbie Orvis [00:31]
• “I hope to be proven wrong and we get a surge of new supply, clean supply, and some help for folks who are seeing their bills be as high as they've probably been in 20 years.” — Robbie Orvis [20:38]
• “Things don't get done until there's a crisis. And I think if prices keep going up, we'll head into… a relative crisis given what we've seen in the past.” — Todd Alexander [19:36]

Important Timestamps

• 00:38 — Rationale for forecasting in energy (“so we can look back and see if we were surprised”)
• 01:44 — Policy impact on renewables by sector (offshore wind, onshore wind, solar, storage)
• 04:23 — Magnitude of policy effect: “3/4 drop in onshore wind deployment”
• 06:48 — Sectors/technologies Robbie Orvis is bullish on for 2026 (battery storage, geothermal, SMRs, long-duration storage)
• 09:31 — Discussion on rising power prices and the difficulty of near-term solutions
• 13:23 — Data center strategies and the challenge of securing supply
• 16:25 — Overview of the near-term optimism vs. long-term headwinds
• 18:19 — Impact of higher capital costs and risk of rate increases
• 20:38 — Closing hopes and willingness to be proven wrong

Tone & Closing Thoughts

The conversation remains analytical yet conversational, blending technical rigor with pragmatic outlooks. While Robbie expresses cautious optimism about near-term solar and storage deployment, both he and Todd repeatedly emphasize the “major headwinds” facing the sector as tax supports wane and structural bottlenecks persist. The outlook for developers, utilities, and large consumers—including data centers—is fraught with uncertainty, hinging on both market and political developments in the coming years.

For listeners in energy, finance, and policy: this episode provides a crisp, clear-eyed roadmap for what to expect in the U.S. energy sector in 2026, offering actionable insights on policy, technology, and market forces.