Ep352: Key Developments in the Energy Sector

Summary

Currents Podcast, Ep352: Key Developments in the Energy Sector
Host: Todd Alexander (Norton Rose Fulbright)
Guest: Nick Bradley (Director of Renewable Advisory, Arcadia)
Release Date: June 11, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the fast-evolving landscape of corporate renewable energy procurement, major policy shifts, market forces (especially around tax credits and rising demand from data centers), and the strategic responses companies should consider as the energy sector faces shifting incentives and greater uncertainty. Todd Alexander speaks with Nick Bradley, who brings expertise from advising corporates on renewables procurement, to unpack pivotal challenges and opportunities for energy buyers in the current environment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NG Impact and Client Advisory (00:17–01:11)

• NG Impact is a part of ENGIE Group but operates independently, focused on advisory, not asset ownership.
• Advisory services include bill pay, energy procurement, carbon and renewables strategy.
• Increasingly, clients seek renewables not just for environmental benefit but also for hedging energy price risk as market conditions shift.

Quote:

“We are a fully independent advisor for our clients...what I’m involved in is renewable energy procurement and strategy.”
(Nick Bradley, 00:34)

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2. Renewables Market Pressures & Shifting Dynamics (02:02–03:44)

• The convergence of factors shaping the market:
  • Loss/expiration of federal tax credits (Inflation Reduction Act provisions ending in July 2026 or December 2027).
  • Massive new demand from AI/data centers consuming available project capacity.
  • Corporate 2030 climate/Science Based Target Initiative (SBTi) deadlines looming, pushing demand for renewables.
  • Result: More competition, fewer projects, and likely higher prices.

Quote:

“A lot of these large hyperscalers gobbling up these renewable energy projects…which leaves little room for cool corporates.”
(Nick Bradley, 02:42)

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3. Strategic Client Guidance in an Uncertain Market (03:44–06:56)

• Custom approach: Start by clarity on each client’s goals (cost, risk, carbon).
• Importance of cross-stakeholder alignment—from working group to C-suite.
• Layer renewable options into broader procurement and mitigation strategies.
• Risk of sitting on the sidelines is rising; action is required ahead of impending tax credit deadlines.

Quote:

“Acting now protects you from all the things that I had mentioned previously...Finding that right fit for a company in the near term is important to protect against the long term.”
(Nick Bradley, 05:34)

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4. Power Prices & Timing of Procurement (06:40–08:06)

• Power prices are expected to climb due to expiring tax credits and increased demand.
• There's no perfect time—delaying action can be riskier than moving forward despite uncertainty.

Quote:

“There’s never going to be a right time...as long as you’re meeting the business needs...we should be acting in the near term.”
(Nick Bradley, 06:56)

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5. Role and Value of Battery Storage (08:06–09:12)

• Battery storage economics remain challenging; limited current value in most markets.
• Full potential is unrealized due to constrained value windows and weather-related volatility.
• Expectation that value will grow as grid constraints increase and market conditions shift.

Quote:

“It’s a very specific time period in which [batteries] make sense…We haven’t seen the full value of what a battery can bring.”
(Nick Bradley, 08:11)

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6. Renewables: Cost and Speed to Grid (09:12–10:38)

• Renewables remain cost-competitive (comparable to natural gas in many markets) and are often the fastest solution to meet new power demand, especially with long lead times for new thermal plants.
• Corporate buyers value long-term price certainty via PPAs and VPPAs.

Quote:

“Renewables are really the only asset that we can kind of help bridge the gap of that new power demand.”
(Nick Bradley, 10:07)

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7. Concrete Client Case Studies (10:38–14:12)

• Case 1: Large government entity with high-load distribution centers.
  • Evaluated on-site solar options—15 viable sites approved, structured for both PPA and roof rental revenue + RECs, included battery storage.
  • $12 million net savings projected; tax credits were critical for project viability.
• Case 2: Corporate client leveraging a VPPA in a volatile energy market.
  • Paired VPPA with targeted procurement contracts to hedge price volatility.
  • Emphasizes importance of matching procurement with broader energy strategy.

Quote:

"If the tax credits were not available for them, 12 of those 15 projects would not have been financially viable.”
(Nick Bradley, 13:05)

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8. Critical Tax Credit Deadlines and Future Market Outlook (14:12–17:47)

• Key Deadlines:
  • July 4, 2026: Construction must start to qualify for ITC/PTC.
  • December 31, 2027: No tax credits available post-deadline.
  • Smaller projects (<1.5 MW) have some flexibility via "5% safe harbor" rule.
• Projects slipping past deadlines risk missing out on crucial financial incentives.
• Queue for new projects thinning as developers drop less viable projects in anticipation of tighter economics post-incentives.
• Expect tighter supply, more selective project development, and higher prices post-tax credits.

Quote:

“Post tax credits, I think you’re gonna see, again, a tightening of the market, developers really focusing on specific areas and regions.”
(Nick Bradley, 16:30)

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9. Mechanisms for Future Price Control – Pessimistic & Optimistic Scenarios (17:47–20:39)

• Pessimistic:
  • Federal action may lag until price pain becomes a major political issue for consumers/voters.
• Optimistic:
  • Utilities could innovate, revise procurement or allow more third-party/corporate generation to address customer needs (example: recent change in Georgia permitting more customer-sited generation).
• Utilities may be the fastest to adopt creative solutions to contain costs and ensure supply.

Quote:

“If we're going to see a creative solution, it’s going to be the utilities that start driving it, because ultimately they are the ones who are controlling their prices. And hopefully that becomes the better for everyone.”
(Nick Bradley, 20:16)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Time is not your friend...there’s never going to be a right time either.”
  (Nick Bradley, 06:56)
• “Acting now protects you from all the things that I had mentioned previously...Data centers, competition between clients, fewer projects available.”
  (Nick Bradley, 05:34)
• “If the tax credits were not available for them, 12 of those 15 projects would not have been financially viable.”
  (Nick Bradley, 13:05)
• “Utilities have long planning horizons, but they also need to serve their customer base...I think it’s going to be, if we’re going to see a creative solution, it’s going to be the utilities that start driving it.”
  (Nick Bradley, 19:45–20:16)

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Key Timestamps

• 00:17 – Introductions; explanation of NG Impact’s role
• 02:32 – Impact of policy, tax credits, and surging data center demand
• 03:52 – How client needs shape renewable procurement strategy
• 05:33 – Urgency around acting before tax credits expire
• 08:11 – Economics and limits of battery storage today
• 09:12 – Renewables as lowest-cost, fastest-to-grid options
• 11:03 – Case studies illustrating practical solutions
• 14:31 – Details on tax credit deadlines and developments
• 17:17 – State-level policy responses and higher price signals
• 18:45 – Pessimistic vs. optimistic outlook on price controls and utility adaptation

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Takeaways for Energy Buyers and Stakeholders

• Rapid market change means corporates need tailored strategies, not a one-size-fits-all solution.
• The expiration of tax credits creates a strong imperative to act sooner rather than later.
• Renewables continue to be compelling for both cost and speed, especially versus thermal alternatives, but the window of opportunity may narrow fast.
• Utilities may become central to creative solutions as public pressure mounts—watch for regulatory and market innovations post-2026.
• Custom, risk-mitigated procurement strategies anchored in business objectives are more important than ever.

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End of Summary.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign. Welcome to Currents, the Norton Rose Fulbright podcast. Today we're recording with Nick Bradley, director of Renewable Advisory at Arcadia, formerly NG Impact. Nick, welcome to the podcast.

[B]

Thanks. Appreciate you having me.

[A]

So almost everybody in the audience, I'm sure, has heard of Engie, given Engie's size. But in your advisory role, can you give us an idea of NG Impact and how you work with clients that people don't confuse you with, with somebody who owns some large power plant in their neighborhood?

[B]

Yeah, of course. So NG Impact is a part of NG Group's portfolio, but we are a fully independent advisor for our clients. We do several things within the energy space, including bill pay, energy procurement, carbon advisory, and what I'm involved in is renewable energy procurement and strategy for our clients.

[A]

So does that mean that corporates who are looking to procure renewable energy through either a virtual PPA or some. Some other type of offtake arrangement, you help advise them on how to structure that arrangement, find that arrangement? Is that what you're doing?

[B]

That's correct. And so really it starts with I would say, what the client needs, figuring out exactly where they are in their renewable energy or carbon reduction, or even just cost and risk mitigation strategy. Typically we see renewable energy buyers doing it for the environmental benefits, such as renewable energy certificates, through a variety of solutions, such as virtual power purchase agreements, VPPAs or power purchase agreements, PPAs. But also renewables can be utilized as a strategic hedging or cost savings mechanism for clients. And that's kind of the direction I've seen most of our clients kind of gravitating towards as energy prices increase and there are. There's more competition for these types of projects.

[A]

Yeah. So it's been there was a good convergence for a long time where rubles were cheap and they were also good for the environment. So you could do something good and at the same time help your bottom line. How has that changed, if at all, over the last 10 years, 10 months or so, with all the data centers coming on and with prices going up and also the change in climate. I shouldn't use climate in this case. Change in posture, let's say, of the administration and Congress, towards renewables.

[B]

Yeah, I feel like we've had a convergence of a lot of different impacts and coming from all sides, essentially. So you mentioned policy. So we have the removal of tax credits from the Inflation Reduction act coming very soon, July 4th of 2026. So in a couple months here or at the end of December 2027, depending on where you go. So you've Got that As a factor, you have increasing demand from AI and data centers. A lot of these large hyperscalers gobbling up these renewable energy projects to satisfy their own needs, which leaves little room for cool corporates. You also have 2030 targets which many of our clients set SBTI or science based Target Initiative targets, which they have to meet by 2030. So you kind of have all of these factors that are going into, well, there's more competition, there's fewer projects with these tax credits rolling off. How are clients going to meet their targets or utilize renewables in a higher price environment to strategically manage their overall energy procurement strategy?

[A]

So what's the type of advice that you're giving? I'm sure it's client specific, but what's the range of things that you're telling people these days?

[B]

Yeah, I think it really starts with figuring out what a client needs. Often there's a process or a length of time where we need to figure out, well, what is the end goal, what will be approved and how does that meet a business's objectives? Without that alignment, from all the way from the working group up through the C suite, we're not going to be able to recommend or implement a project that is fitting for them. So that's really where it starts. But how we approach it is through a strategy development that allows clients to kind of sift through all the different product options and what they would mean for their business. Are they going to get wrecks from it? Are they going to get energy price certainty? Is it a guaranteed savings from something like community solar? That's kind of how we're approaching it from a strategy standpoint, but then also layering in the potential impacts for their broader energy procurement strategy where we may be able to reduce energy consumption and therefore mitigate the price increases that we're seeing across the market. And so it's really about layering and hedging and holistic energy strategy to meet the client where they're at. So that's kind of what we're our strategy in going to clients. But then it gets into very specific details such as what do we do right now with the tax credits expiring or what do we do with GHG protocol changes that are changing? How do we mitigate near term risk for future goals?

[A]

So how do we do it?

[B]

Yeah, how do we do it? Good question. In relation to the tax credits coming offline, really what I'm seeing is that the time to act is now. I don't really see. It's tough to see an Environment where In the next three years before 2030, targets come online or are required to be met where energy prices or renewable energy procurement is going to go down. So with these tax credits, up to 30 to 40% of the project costs can be utilized from that. And so acting now protects you from all the things that I had mentioned previously. Data centers, competition between clients, fewer projects available, and finding that right fit for a company in the near term is important to protect against the long term. So I guess it's getting alignment, having a strategy and a plan and then kicking into action in the near term rather than waiting or sitting on the sidelines before more certainty is in the market.

[A]

So your view is that power prices are headed upward given that the tax credits are going to pull away and there's increasing demand from data centers and so trying to find the perfect match. Time's not your friend.

[B]

Yeah, time is not your friend. And there's never going to be a right time either, I would say to start moving. I think this also relates specifically you mentioned. It's different for every client too. I think something that's important to delineate is specifically for renewable energy buyers is if you're doing it for stated goals compared to another portion of your energy management. Right. So if you're doing it for the actual stated goals and you need the renewable energy certificates, that kind of narrows your focus and limits to what types of projects you want to enter into versus if you're just doing it as part of your whole energy portfolio, then maybe you have things as a cost mitigation tool, for example, swapping RECs on a VPPA or an on site solar system to take value from that. So I think that's an important differentiator why you're entering into these renewable energy contracts. But yeah, there's never going to be a perfect time. So as long as you're meeting the business needs with these energy procurement decisions, then we should be acting in the near term to take advantage of what is available and what is known with the tax credits.

[A]

Are you seeing any change in the market as battery storage becomes more prevalent or not much?

[B]

Battery storage is a tricky one. It's a very tricky one. I don't think that there. I haven't seen anything in terms of like price reduction or you know, enhanced economics on the actual renewable energy asset to date. And I think that's because in the markets where batteries have been heavily implemented, it's a very specific time period in which they make sense. Essentially it's the time when solar comes offline and the wind isn't blowing. And so that time period is limited to a couple hours. In order to make up essentially the value of a battery, energy prices have to be set at a certain level which due to weather patterns and just over the past couple of years just hasn't been happening. So we haven't seen full value of what a battery can bring. But I think that time will be coming soon enough as capacity becomes more constrained and we're seeking kind of to elongate the time period in which renewables are producing and can be discharged to the grid.

[A]

Are you seeing that renewals are still one of, if not the lowest cost option for corporate buyers? So that depending, whatever their competing demands are, almost all of them are going to have either some, some mix of yes, we'd like to reduce our carbon count and yes, we'd like to lower our costs for power. But if you can get both, fantastic.

[B]

Yeah. And so like securing, securing power too is, is a big piece of this. Right. So with the utility you can't really negotiate or do a long term power purchase agreement, but you can with renewables. You can essentially lock in your energy price for a term of 10 to 20 years. And so I'm really seeing that as a value add and being one, it's a cost, a total cost of the project aspect, but also a time to grid.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Renewables are the quickest to the grid and also they are cost competitive with a natural gas turbine. And so if you consider the timeline to buy a new turbine, which is five to eight years right now, a significant backlog, renewables are really the only asset that we can kind of help bridge the gap of that new power demand. And so yes, it is not only the cost competitive with other solutions, but it is also the fastest if you want to secure your power.

[A]

So we've been talking high level principles, but maybe to make it easier for people to understand exactly what you're doing, can you give one or two case studies? I'm sure you can't use the name. Well, maybe you can of the company, but just say company A, here's what they were trying to solve for. Here's what we implemented. Company B, here's what we were doing, here's what we implemented. Just so people have a better idea, I think it'll be easier for people, people to follow a concrete example.

[B]

Yeah, absolutely. One of our clients that we worked with was a large government entity. They have a huge nationwide portfolio with significant distribution centers that have high energy loads. And they were looking at Onsite solar. So we kind of started with, okay, what are the available options for you? You're already down the on site solar path. And they really wanted somebody to help evaluate what was put in front of them. If it made sense in terms of fiscally, it made sense, timing, it made sense, things like that. And so what we did is an analysis of the on site solar systems and found that 15 of them were viable solutions and we helped them structure the contract as well. So it's not only the strategy piece, but it's all the way through the contract structuring and performance reporting of these assets. We were able to structure the contracts so that they had a combination of long term power purchase agreements that secured their energy price in high price energy markets and then also received some income from some of these roof rentals that they also did so not physically taking the electricity, but renting the roof and receiving revenue plus renewable energy certificates for that. So that resulted in 15 of those projects moving forward from our analysis, which result in 13.6 megawatts being installed and 500 kilowatts of battery storage as well. Overall that will generate, over the life of the contract, 12 million in net savings. And then kind of the caveat to all that is that if the tax credits were not available for them, 12 of those 15 projects would not have been financially viable. So it's just kind of highlighting both our analysis and then the importance of the tax credits for this client. Another one of our clients, they were looking at a vppa. And so they had an energy market that had volatility and expected cost for the vppa. And it was, it just so happened that the VPPA was located in the same market in which they had a large energy load. So what we were able to do there in that situation was actually pair the VPPA strategy with their energy procurement strategy. And so not only were we looking at, well, how is this VPPA going to perform over the time of the contract, but how can we structure the energy procurement contracts to essentially create a natural hedge, or at least strategy around how their energy contract performs in relation to the vppa? Because they're often opposites. And so pairing those together actually creates this really nice strategy that smooths out some of the volatility that you experience with a vppa. So two different types of contracts that we're looking at and two different strategies that really show kind of how we approach these and making sure that at the end of the day we're getting to a holistic energy procurement strategy and utilizing renewables as a risk mitigation tool.

[A]

All right. I think hopefully that helped people in closing. Now, just in terms of looking forward, we talked a little bit about deadlines, so maybe you can talk about the deadlines that are important and then once those deadlines are passed, what you think the market's going to look like going forward when the tax credits are no longer available?

[B]

Yeah. So the first deadline that we have is July 4th of 2026. That is when, if you have not started construction, you will not be eligible for the investment tax credit or the production tax credits, the ITC or the ptc. There is one caveat in that deadline is that if your System is under 1.5 megawatts, then you just have to have 5% of the project cost allocated. If it's over 1.5 megawatts, then YOU have to have significant construction has started. So grading of the site, things like that. So that 1.5 is actually really important for on site solar systems. If you can meet that 5% project cost, it actually delays the placed in service until 2030. So that's really beneficial for on site. If you miss the July 4, 2026 deadline, the next one that is implemented is December 31, 2027. And that deadline, if you miss it, no tax credits essentially. So you can imagine when a corporate client is evaluating a project, if the COD or the commercial operation date is, you know, say in Q4 of 2027, it places a significant risk on that project. If it slips at all, they may not be eligible for those tax credits. So that's something that we're really honing in on and taking focus on when we're evaluating and doing due diligence for these projects to ensure that we have confidence and certainty that a project will come online and be eligible for those tax credits. As for post ITC and ptc, I think a lot of those effects you can actually kind of see now these. While renewables are the fastest to the market, there are. There's a lot of steps and process that goes into building them. So environmental permits, interconnection queues, getting through all those steps and hurdles before the project's actually built. So that still may take two years to get through all of that. That being said, two years from today is past the 2027 deadline. So slowly we've kind of been seeing the interconnection queue drop a little bit because developers who do not think their project will be financially viable at that point are taking them out of the queue and just focusing on the ones that will meet the tax credit deadline or will have financial viability after that. So post tax credits, I think you're gonna see, again, a tightening of the market, developers really focusing on specific areas and regions to maximize the financial return that they expect from these projects.

[A]

That sounds to me like reduced incremental supply and higher prices.

[B]

Yes, yes. And some of that. I mean, I think it was a couple months ago, I think it was Indiana that the governor. Indiana or Ohio, I can't remember which, the governor came out and said these, these prices are already increasing. Like we need to enact legislation to help protect against that. So the. I would say the breadcrumbs are there for the price increases. It's just a matter of scale once the full realization of the tax credits coming off online happens. So.

[A]

So I asked this question to a lot of guests. I wasn't planning to ask you, but as a closing one, and hopefully you have a different answer and don't feel any pressure because nobody so far has come up with a great response. So that's why I keep asking it when I listen to a bunch of my guests here, that everybody seems fairly pessimistic in terms of whether there'll be enough supply to meet the demand to control price increases. At the same time, to me, it seems that politically it's going to be. There'll be a lot of pressure to try to help the public to control price increases. Are you seeing anything yet on the horizon that could help control prices through some type of mechanism? Either more transmission, more easier permitting, whatever it is, or are we still too early in the cycle and the political class is not going to react until or closer to a real crisis?

[B]

I could go pessimistic. I can go optimistic on this. It really is.

[A]

Why don't you give us both cases?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Nobody's come up with a great response yet, so I keep asking until I get somebody I like.

[B]

Yeah, I'm going to say the pessimistic view is that from a federal standpoint. Yes. I think it'll be felt to the point where it's a universal sentiment that electricity prices are too expensive and they are hurting, you know, everyday consumers and voters, bottom line. So that's. And so on a federal standpoint, I think that's. That's where maybe you'll start seeing action or directive to states to essentially help alleviate those price increases, whatever mechanism it may be. The optimistic side is that, you know, utilities have long planning horizons, but they also need to serve their customer base. They need to be able to provide reliable and affordable electricity. And so it really gets to the point where we may see kind of a shift in utilities that are being more creative, maybe allowing projects to come online that they previously were not, not willing to accept into their power production because they want to ensure their revenue. And this just happened in Georgia, where they essentially now there was a limit on the what type of projects you can build and bring online under Georgia, which is a regulated state. But now they're allowing consumers or corporates to build their own generation and then serve their site. So I think it's, I think it's going to be, if we're going to see a creative solution, it's going to be the utilities that start driving it, because ultimately they are the ones who are controlling their prices. And hopefully that becomes the better for everyone.

[A]

All right, with that, I'll give you the last word there.

[B]

Last word. Not too many. Just thanks for having me on the show and I really appreciate the opportunity to talk renewables. It's kind of what I live and breathe these days. Yeah.

[A]

All right. Thanks.

[B]

Yeah, thanks, Hud.

[A]

You can find us online at www.google project finance law or send us an [e-mail]. please rate, review and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your preferred podcast app. Our show today was produced by Emily Rogers. Stay ahead of the Currents.