Dan Bernstein Unfiltered (Feb. 11, 2026)

Episode: Chicago Cubs WIN the division - PECOTA | we want the Bulls to LOSE | Mel Brooks

Overview

In this episode, Dan Bernstein and Matt Abbatacola dive deep into the latest PECOTA projections for the MLB season, reveling in the Chicago Cubs’ new status as heavy favorites in the NL Central while lamenting the White Sox’s dire outlook. The hosts advocate for Bulls fans to embrace losing (for better draft odds), celebrate a classic Cubs image returning to public display, and share enthusiasm for the new Mel Brooks documentary. The episode also features playful banter, touching on sports nostalgia and pop culture, with updates from the Winter Olympics.

Key Topics & Insights

1. PECOTA Projections: Cubs Flying High, White Sox Low (00:54–16:41)

• Dan and Matt explain PECOTA:
  • An advanced, algorithmic projection system from Baseball Prospectus, named after the forgettable MLBer Bill Pecota.
  • “PECOTA does not pick a team to win any particular number of games. PECOTA identifies the simulations … and gives you the average of that fairly wide range.” (Dan Bernstein, 03:10)
• Cubs’ Outlook
  • The Cubs are runaway favorites in the NL Central with a projected 90 wins, a 10-game gap over Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.
    • “Pakota has them as a runaway favorite in the Central with a 73.5% chance of winning the division … a playoff percentage possibility at the moment of 87.1. That’s pretty insane.” (Dan, 04:31)
• White Sox Prognosis
  • Projected to win just 69 games; fifth in the AL Central.
  • “White Sox projected 69 and 93. … They are projected in their simulations to make a big improvement to 69 and 93.” (Dan & Matt, 08:06)
• Baseball Landscape
  • Dodgers projected for an “absurd” 104 wins—most Dan's seen in the system.
  • AL East: Every team projected to win more than they lose, which Dan finds amazing but probably impossible.
• Joe Sheehan’s Perspective:
  • “PECOTA gives 19 teams at least a 25% chance to make the playoffs. … This is as democratized a season set yet.” (Dan quoting Sheehan, 13:00)
• Playful banjo music riffs:
  • The hosts joke about an “all-American” alternate seventh-inning stretch complete with fried chicken, apple pie, and Chevrolet. (14:37–16:22)

Notable Moment:

“The Cubs by a mile, the prohibitive NL Central favorites, and the White Sox still in the cellar … according to Baseball Prospectus.”
—Dan Bernstein (12:36)

2. Betting & NCAA Talk (17:46–18:46)

• MyBookie plug and NCAA bets:
  • Matt took a flyer on the Fighting Illini at +1200; Illinois had back-to-back overtime losses.
  • Quick touch on recent college basketball and TV viewing.

3. Pop Culture & The Norman Rockwell Cubs "Dugout" (25:02–34:39)

• Legendary Cubs Painting
  • "The Dugout" by Norman Rockwell, a formative image for the "lovable losers" Cubs, has been donated by Bruce Rauner to the Art Institute of Chicago.
  • The painting helped cement the Cubs' national image as underdogs.

“That was the schema in their mind of the Cubs. That is an indelible image that helped shape the lovable loser idea of the Cubs.”
—Dan Bernstein (29:22)

• Fun Art History Stuff:
  • The Cubs have historically lost; image captured the mood of 1948 (Cubs: 64-90; White Sox: even worse).
• Local Youth Baseball Chatter:
  • Mixed feelings about travel baseball tournaments in Cooperstown—and a story of kids going streaking.

4. Realism vs. Dreaming: Raising Athletes (35:52–38:28)

• Dan’s Parenting Honesty:
  • Dan admits he was blunt with his son about the improbability of playing Major League or even college baseball at a young age.

“Dad, do you think I can be a major league baseball player? No. Do you think I could be a minor league baseball player? No.”
—Dan Bernstein (36:47)

• Matt's More Optimistic Approach:
  • Advocating for keeping the dream alive in youth sports, with playful jabs at Dan’s bluntness.

5. Bulls Fans: Root for Losses, Trust the Process! (38:28–41:56)

• Clear Tanking Advocacy:
  • Dan urges Bulls fans to actively root for losses for better NBA draft odds.

“Do not root for the Bulls to win games. … You ultimately want, when the game ends, the Bulls to have fewer points than the opponent.”
—Dan Bernstein (38:31)

• Draft Simulator Fun:
  • The hosts get obsessed with Tankathon.com—simulating the NBA lottery and bemoaning the Bulls’ odds.
• Players to Watch:
  • Root for the Bulls to get a top-3 pick: Drake Peterson, AJ DeBonsa, or Cameron Boozer.

6. Olympics Update with Banter (44:58–50:19)

• Olympic Highlights:
  • U.S. women’s hockey crushed Canada 5-0 to take their group.
  • U.S. mixed doubles curling won silver; Sweden took gold.
  • U.S. medals in skiing events.
  • Men’s hockey kicking off soon.
  • Medal count: Norway (12), Italy (11), USA/Japan (8).
• Stanley Tucci’s Italy Segments:
  • Both guys enthuse about Tucci’s travel/food segments on NBC’s Olympic coverage.
• Heartwarming Note:
  • The Kelsey brothers helped Layla Edwards’ family attend to see her play—first Black woman on U.S. women’s hockey.

7. Documentary/Pop Culture: Mel Brooks (54:47–69:58)

• Deep Dive Review:
  • Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man, a two-part documentary on HBO Max (by Judd Apatow), gets rave reviews from both hosts.
• Personal Significance:
  • For Dan, Brooks was a comedic “canon” that shaped his and his peers’ humor and culture, especially among Jewish communities.
  • “It’s hard for me to put into proper perspective the significance of Mel Brooks to me in my upbringing.”
    —Dan Bernstein (55:30)
• Documentary Highlights:
  • Brooks’ kindness, career resilience, mentoring young talent, and his Jewishness in the face of adversity were all explored.
  • Connections drawn between Brooks’ and Herb Brooks’ (hockey coach) driven mindsets—both “geniuses” in different realms.
• Funny Memories:
  • Favorite Mel Brooks bits (“2000 Year Old Man,” “History of the World,” etc.) and influence on modern comedians.
  • “He had a sledgehammer … and a whoopee cushion.”
    —Dan Bernstein (66:02)
• Nostalgia TV & Generational Habits:
  • Matt & Dan compare channel-surfing habits to their kids’ on-demand ways.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On PECOTA’s Cubs Projections
  • “Pakota has them as a runaway favorite in the Central … a playoff percentage possibility at the moment of 87.1. That’s pretty insane.” (Dan, 04:31)
• Tankathon Fun
  • “You want them to lose every game. Yes, that’s the point.” (Matt, 39:20)
• Parenting Bluntness
  • “Dad, do you think I can be a major league baseball player? No. Do you think I could be a minor league …? No.” (Dan, 36:47)
  • “You’re such a prick.” (Matt, jokingly, to Dan, 36:47)
• Mel Brooks’ Impact
  • “It’s hard for me to put into proper perspective the significance of Mel Brooks to me in my upbringing and in sort of the entertainment side of my life.” (Dan, 55:30)
• Comedy Analysis
  • “He had a sledgehammer that some people have a rapier. He had a sledgehammer. And a whoopee cushion.” (Dan, 66:02)
• Seventh Inning Stretch Absurdity
  • "We’re gonna throw canned beer, fried chicken, and Chevrolet right out the window." (Joking about the all-American alternate stretch, 15:23)

Important Timestamps

• 00:54–16:41: In-depth PECOTA projections and Cubs/Central/AL analysis
• 17:46–18:46: Betting talk—MyBookie & NCAA
• 25:02–34:39: Rockwell’s “Dugout” and Cubs iconography origins
• 35:52–38:28: Youth sports realism vs. chasing dreams
• 38:28–41:56: Bulls tanking advocacy & lottery simulator
• 44:58–50:19: Olympic highlights & Tucci travel segments
• 54:47–69:58: Mel Brooks documentary; pop culture influences

Tone & Style

The episode is conversational, irreverent, and often tongue-in-cheek, with Dan’s dry wit bouncing off Matt’s playful sarcasm. Their sports breakdowns are sharp but accessible, blending insider knowledge with the kind of playful, self-aware humor familiar to Chicago sports media fans. Pop culture references and nostalgia trip moments add warmth and humor throughout.

Episode Summary

This episode is a loving, occasionally cynical but always passionate romp through Chicago sports and sports culture. The hosts celebrate the Cubs’ statistical ascendancy (with warnings that “they still gotta play the games”), bash the Bulls’ mediocrity as a path to hope, and reflect on historical sports imagery and Mel Brooks’ comedic genius with genuine affection and insight. Packed with stats, stories, and smart banter, it’s an essential listen for fans who want analysis and laugh-out-loud moments in equal measure.