Dan Bernstein Unfiltered
Episode: What will prevent the Chicago Bears from winning the Super Bowl?
Release Date: December 17, 2025
Host: Dan Bernstein
Co-host/Guest: Matt Abbatacola (longtime executive producer)
Episode Overview
This episode of "Dan Bernstein Unfiltered" zeroes in on a question every Chicago Bears fan is secretly asking: What could stop the Bears from winning the Super Bowl this year? Dan and Matt dig deep, moving beyond viral optimism to dissect the critical on-field and organizational issues that could derail a championship run. Expect brutally honest analysis, a healthy dose of stats, some Chicago sports banter, and classic Bernstein wit.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Setting the Stage: Bears Playoff Fever
- The hosts start by sharing their excitement for Bears-Packers week, discussing personal plans around the game and the buzz permeating Chicago.
- Bernstein sets up the central episode question: Rather than just saying if the Bears could win it all, let’s dig into why they might not—and whether those flaws can be fixed. (Bernstein, 02:07)
2. Dan Bernstein’s Four Reasons the Bears Might Not Win the Super Bowl
Dan’s self-set rule: Hold the Bears to a “rigorous standard,” examining what an objective observer would see as fatal flaws.
A. Pass Rush Concerns
(Starts ~04:29)
- Statistically suspect: Bears are blitzing way more than ideal (27.2%—10th in NFL, “too much”), out of necessity, not design.
- Sacks are lacking (29 on the year, bottom third of the league); pressure percentage is weak (20.3%—bottom third).
- True difference-makers on the defensive line are missing; successful teams “get home” with their front four.
- Quote:
“I don’t see enough active disruption of games because of the front four.”
(Bernstein, 07:06) - Both hosts agree this is the most significant risk.
B. Coaching Inexperience (Ben Johnson)
(Starts ~08:37)
- Ben Johnson is “brilliant,” but still a rookie head coach, never having managed the pressure, adversity, and adjustments of NFL playoff football.
- Only two rookie head coaches have ever won a Super Bowl (Don McCafferty, George Seifert—see 09:42).
- Quote:
“He’s never been on that sideline with his call sheet or in a… playoff game. He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know.”
(Bernstein, 09:30)
C. The Kicking Game—Cairo Santos’ Range
(Starts ~11:24)
- Modern NFL playoff games often require kickers to reliably hit from 55-60+ yards.
- Cairo Santos is not a 60+ yard guy; may be exposed in a critical moment.
- The co-host pushes back, suggesting this may not decide a championship this year.
- Quote:
“You’re gonna have to have a kicker who can make a 60 [yarder], is my point.”
(Bernstein, 12:41)
D. Passing Game Efficiency & Caleb Williams’ Accuracy
(Starts ~13:33)
- Passing efficiency is a concern:
- Caleb Williams leads NFL in “bad throws” (96), with a 22.4% bad throw rate (second worst among relevant QBs).
- On-target throw percentage is very low (67.6%—31st out of 32, only JJ McCarthy is lower).
- Receivers’ injuries and drops compound the issue.
- Playoff wins often hinge on execution in limited, high-leverage pass attempts.
- Quote:
“You only get a certain number of chances… you’ve got to hit them when they’re there.”
(Bernstein, 16:35)
3. Matt’s Counterpoints & Synthesis
(Segment begins ~18:05)
- Matt doesn’t see Johnson’s inexperience or the kicking game as likely to be the difference—notes the team’s resiliency and coach’s strengths.
- He acknowledges the passing efficiency is an issue but trusts Caleb Williams’ “short memory” and big-game ability, referencing comebacks vs the Eagles and Packers.
- Quote:
“The resiliency of this team… it does not impact or derail [Caleb’s] game.” (Co-host, 19:46)
- Quote:
- For Matt, the true make-or-break factor is pass defense and the pass rush: the defense is statistically porous except for a league-leading number of interceptions (21).
- Breakdown of the pass D’s woes:
- 48 plays allowed of 20+ yards (30th/32)
- 9 plays of 40+ yards (5th worst)
- 7.4 YPA (26th)
- 66% completion rate (11th highest)
- 27 passing TDs allowed (5th most)
- “The only reason they’re 10-4 is the interceptions.” (Co-host, 22:45)
4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | | --- | --- | --- | | 07:06 | "I don’t see enough active disruption of games because of the front four." | Dan Bernstein | | 09:30 | "He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know [about NFL playoff head coaching]." | Dan Bernstein | | 12:41 | "You’re gonna have to have a kicker who can make a 60 [yarder], is my point." | Dan Bernstein | | 16:35 | "You only get a certain number of chances… you’ve got to hit them when they’re there." | Dan Bernstein | | 19:46 | "The resiliency of this team… it does not impact or derail [Caleb’s] game." | Co-host | | 22:45 | "The only reason why they're 10 and 4 is because of the 21 interceptions. That's it." | Co-host |
Other Highlights & Side Conversations
Pressure Rate Analytics (25:51)
- Co-host lists NFL leaders in pressure rate with four or fewer rushers—Broncos, Browns, Seahawks, Eagles, Lions—and reinforces its importance for playoff success.
“Talk about a bellwether stat… successful front four non-blitz pass rush.” (Bernstein, 26:07)
Quick Takes: NBA In-Season Tournament
(29:58 and 36:36)
- Dan and Matt riff on the NBA’s in-season Cup; Dan surprisingly enjoys it, contrasting with “curmudgeonly” critics like Charles Barkley and old-school fans.
- Both agree opposition mostly comes from people who “don’t actually like the NBA.”
- Banter includes mockery of floor designs, Stan Van Gundy’s role, and the “NBA cup” confetti.
Viral Sports Moments
(39:18)
- Hilarious replay of Josh Hart “goosing” Jalen Brunson during NBA Cup trophy celebration, with a callback to the infamous Cesar Izturis/Aramis Ramirez Cubs dugout moment.
Baseball Analytics “Reinsdorf Rule”
(44:00)
- Bernstein slams MLB’s proposed move to standardize data analytics league-wide as “anti-competitive” and a Jerry Reinsdorf-style defensive move.
- Predicts this will reduce incentives to innovate and benefit only cheapskate owners.
- Quote:
“You might as well… this is monopolistic behavior… it hurts innovation.”
(Bernstein, 49:01)
Chicago Subculture: CTA Subway Surfing
(55:22)
- Segment on dangerous “subway surfing” trending in Chicago—Dan’s take: “Just make sure you’re an organ donor.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [04:29] Pass Rush analysis
- [08:37] Rookie head coach inexperience
- [11:24] Kicking game & field goal discussion
- [13:33] Passing game efficiency stats
- [18:05] Matt’s evaluation of the four issues
- [22:45] Pass defense detailed stats & context
- [25:51] Pressure rate leaders with 4 rushers
- [29:58] NBA Cup, celebrations, Stan Van Gundy talk
- [39:18] Josh Hart’s “NBA Cup goose” moment
- [44:00] MLB analytics “Reinsdorf Rule” discussion
- [55:22] CTA subway surfing PSA and banter
Episode Tone & Style
- Candid, statistical, and unsparingly honest.
- Classic Bernstein humor (sometimes dark, always dry).
- In-the-weeds sports analysis, but always approachable.
- Frequent riffs, Chicago cultural references, and food analogies (“the steak sandwich from Ricobene’s…” at 38:50).
Final Word
Dan and Matt’s consensus:
The Bears are much improved—potentially good enough on a great day—but if they fall short, it will be due to a pass rush that doesn’t scare elite opponents, a secondary being bailed out by unsustainable turnover luck, and—less so, but worth watching—unproven playoff leadership. Kicking and passing accuracy are question marks, but not deal-breakers (yet). The show encourages fans to savor the ride and stay critical, not just hopeful.