Dan Bernstein Unfiltered

Episode Title: Will the baseball season in Chicago end today?
Date: October 8, 2025
Host: Dan Bernstein
Co-Host: Matt Abbatacola
Guest: Lucas Burris (Illinois Valley Pistol Shrimp)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the Chicago Cubs’ daunting odds in their playoff series against the Milwaukee Brewers, considering whether the Cubs’ baseball season might end today. Dan and Matt break down the Cubs’ struggles, pitching philosophies, player performances, and the broader state of Chicago baseball. The conversation also includes a deep-dive into pitching velocity, commentary on modern baseball broadcasts, a quirky minor-league segment featuring the Illinois Valley Pistol Shrimp, and rapid-fire discussions of Bulls preseason basketball and new NCAA transfer rules.

Key Discussion Points

The Cubs vs. Brewers: Near the Brink (00:08 – 07:23)

• Historical Odds & Pessimism

  • Dan details how teams down 0-2 in MLB best-of-five series have around a 10% chance of winning, emphasizing the Cubs haven’t looked competitive enough to feel even that optimistic.
    • Quote: "I would think that of the 10% who have come back ... have been more competitive in the previous two games." (00:19)
    • Bernstein grants permission to either hold onto hope ("baseball can baseball") or be entirely pessimistic about the Cubs’ chances.

• Cubs’ On-Field Flaws

  • Matt underscores not just the performance, but also the body language, poor defensive play, and lack of competitive feel.
    • Quote: "It doesn't feel like it is a 92 win ball game ... It hasn't been competitive." (01:54)

• Comparing Cubs and Brewers Approaches

  • Dan praises the Brewers’ at-bats: working counts, making effective contact, and handling a Cubs' pitching staff that lacks high-velocity arms.

Game 3: Pitching Matchup and Player Injuries (03:35 – 05:04)

• Jameson Taillon’s Resilience

  • Matt runs through Taillon’s “battled back” story, from Tommy John and cancer to being a steady veteran.
  • Both hosts agree pitching alone won’t bail the Cubs out unless the offense shows up.

• Injury Reports & Home Field

  • Discussion about key injuries (e.g., Kyle Tucker, Jackson Chourio) and the potential energy boost from the home crowd.
    • Quote: "Now's your chance to prove that if [the home crowd] really makes that much of a difference…" (04:43)

Cubs Offense: Struggles and Stats (05:17 – 06:28)

• Key Player Struggles

  • Dan and Matt run down poor playoff stats for key hitters: Matt Shaw (.000 batting, show of discipline), Ian Happ (2-for-19, 9 Ks), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (4-for-18, with 10 Ks and no walks).
    • Quote: "His batting average is .000." (05:38)

• Crow-Armstrong’s Self-Awareness

  • Dan shares Crow-Armstrong’s own quote about hitting .100 and the game's difficulty.
    • Quote (Crow-Armstrong): “Hitting .100 is always going to be hard. Putting up runs in big league games is hard. The sport that we play is hard. It’s just our job to execute. I know I haven't done that...” (06:07)

Technical Factors: Weather and Home Advantage (06:29 – 07:23)

• Discussion of game-day weather conditions at Wrigley (wind blowing in) and its potential impact on both teams’ power hitting.

Sign Stealing and Baseball’s Unwritten Rules (07:23 – 10:13)

• Legal Sign Stealing

  • The hosts revisit recent TV coverage on legal sign-stealing, hand gestures by runners, and the need for the Cubs to simply adjust if it’s happening.

• Baseball “Policing” and Old School Mentality

  • Dan jokes about past unwritten rules—threats of getting hit for stealing signs—contrasting with today’s more “friendly” approach.

Defense, Base Running, and Discipline (10:13 – 11:59)

• Discussion on defense’s stable value (Crow-Armstrong’s glove), the underappreciated impact of base running, and the importance of not "chasing" pitches.

Pitching Velocity: Cubs’ Philosophy and MLB Trends (11:59 – 21:32)

• Cubs’ Lack of “Gas”: A Decades-Long Problem

  • Dan recounts listener-submitted research: the last time a regular Cubs starter hit 100 mph may have been Kerry Wood in 1998.
    • Quote: "So the last starting pitcher to throw 100 miles per hour for the Cubs was 1998." (17:15)

• Why Velocity Matters: Statcast Data

  • They share MLB data showing that as pitch velocity rises, batting averages, on-base % and slugging % tumble drastically.
    • Memorable Insight:
      • "Batting average [.141], on base [.213], slugging [.216] ... at 100+ [mph]... nearly impossible to hit." (20:27)

• Correlation with Plate Discipline

  • Matt wonders how much worse results get for undisciplined teams, though Dan notes the referenced Statcast data is velocity-only.

Broadcasting Rants: John Smoltz, Hawk Harrelson, and Analyst Trends (21:32 – 27:02)

• Dan vents about "old school" color commentators like John Smoltz and Hawk Harrelson, frustrated by their outdated or inaccurate commentary.
  • Quote: "He is Hawk Harrelson. He just says stuff all the time that isn’t true." (21:48)
  • Laments the lack of data-driven, humble, modern analysis: "Don’t make people dumber ... Ideally, you're making people smarter..." (25:38)

Minor League Spotlight: Illinois Valley Pistol Shrimp & "Radioactive Shrimp" (29:16 – 41:38)

Interview with Lucas Burris (Assistant GM & Play-by-Play, Illinois Valley Pistol Shrimp)

• Radioactive Shrimp Night Origin

  • Lucas explains adopting the viral 'radioactive shrimp' headline for a special alternate-identity game in 2026, timed with their annual “Halloween in July.”
    • Quote: "Sometimes things just fall into your lap... you jump on a bandwagon as quickly as you can." (31:26)
  • New merchandise (green/purple/black), themed logo, and hopes to rank above Walmart recall results on Google!

• Minor League Economics and Marketing

  • Discussion of how minor league (collegiate summer) teams build identity and drive revenue—through clever branding and merch as much as on-field success.

• Pistol Shrimp Facts

  • Team targets D1 and high-caliber D3/juco players; has produced 10 MLB draft picks in six years.
  • Example: Noah Schultz (now White Sox 1st-rounder) pitched there.
  • Games are free admission, focus on local food/trucks, family-friendly environment.

• Pistol Shrimp Biology

  • Brief, fun tangent on what a real pistol shrimp is—one of the loudest aquatic animals, generates heat and sound to stun prey.

Quick Hits: Bulls Preseason and NBA G League (45:27 – 49:47)

• Dan expresses joy at watching 5'8" Yuki Kawamura, a "magician" point guard with the Bulls' G League affiliate (Windy City Bulls).

  • Quote: "He does Steve Nash type stuff out there. He is... a brilliant point guard. Unfortunately, he’s 5’8.” (45:41)

• Matt questions the organizational value if Kawamura can’t realistically stick in the NBA but agrees it makes for a fun G League watch.

NCAA Transfer Portal Changes & College Football Chaos (52:13 – 57:05)

• Matt recaps new NCAA portal window rules: From 2026, there’s one transfer window (Jan 2–16), which now overlaps with the college football semifinals.
• Dan and Matt both argue these windows will not stop behind-the-scenes moves or chaos; if anything, it’ll just push the backdoor dealings "further underground."
  • Quote: "Whatever you try to do with the official dates and official window doesn’t change the fact this goes on all year." (54:43)

Notable Quotes & Moments (w/ Timestamps)

• On Cubs’ Playoff Hopes:
  "I’m going to cast my lot with variance and hold on to hope. Go ahead, dude, you’re allowed. I’m giving you permission to do that." — Dan Bernstein (00:51)
• On Cubs/Brewers Body Language:
  "Just the feeling around it. The body language, the approaches at bat, the swings, you know, defensive errors and just misplays. It doesn’t feel like a 92 win ball game." — Matt Abbatacola (01:54)
• On Pitching Velocity and Modern Trends:
  "Stop saying velocity doesn’t matter. Stop saying throwing 100 doesn’t matter. It does. It’s nearly impossible to hit." — Dan Bernstein (20:27)
• On Annoying Analyst Habits:
  "He just says stuff all the time that isn’t true. ... These grandiose opinions, like he’s some guru on the mount..." — Dan Bernstein on John Smoltz (21:48)
• On Embracing Analytics and Baseball’s Evolution:
  "You can actually look it up. ... Better analysts will say, 'I would like to know the percentage of times that happens.'" — Dan Bernstein (24:08)
• On Embracing Minor League Quirkiness:
  "Sometimes things just fall into your lap ... Sometimes things go viral like radioactive shrimp and you jump on a bandwagon as quickly as you can." — Lucas Burris (31:26)
• On NCAA Chaos:
  "There's no, there's no there there ... half of these guys don't even remember what logo they've got on the side of their head." — Dan Bernstein (56:54)

Segment Timestamps

• Cubs Playoff Despair & Matchup Analysis: 00:08 – 07:23
• Cubs Offense & Approaches: 05:17 – 11:59
• Pitching Velocity Deep-Dive: 11:59 – 21:32
• Broadcasting Rants: 21:32 – 27:02
• Illinois Valley Pistol Shrimp Segment: 29:16 – 41:38
• Bulls Preseason & Yuki Kawamura: 45:27 – 49:47
• NCAA Transfer Rules & College Football: 52:13 – 57:05

Tone & Language

The hosts' discussion is sharp, unfiltered, and sometimes irreverent, faithful to Bernstein’s “no filters, no filler” tagline. The conversation is stats-heavy, opinionated, but always with an underlying sense of humor and a true Chicago sports fan’s realism (and exasperation). The interview with Lucas Burris injects light-heartedness and minor league fun, adding a unique flavor to the episode.

Useful For

• Fans wanting a data-driven, emotionally honest assessment of the Cubs’ playoff fate
• Listeners curious about how the Cubs approach pitching compared to MLB trends
• Those interested in lighter, minor league baseball quirks and promotions
• Bulls fans seeking under-the-radar preseason storylines
• Followers of NCAA reform and athlete movement trends

In summary:
This episode delivers both hard truths and levity as Dan and Matt dissect the Cubs’ bleak playoff predicament, highlight systemic Chicago baseball issues, rant against old-school broadcasting, shine a spotlight on creative minor league baseball marketing, and touch on the latest NCAA transfer chaos — all with the signature candor and wit longtime listeners expect.