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Dan Bernstein
Dan Bernstein unfiltered unfiltered on 312 sports
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
it's DBU on 312 and I think my guy that I wanted to replace, Drew Dahlman, is probably not going to be in the Bears price range. I sort of woke up to that reality today and it's one thing to think it and it's another thing to start to actually see numbers that are associated with the guy that you want. And do you find it interesting? I just should ask this before we get into some some other football stuff that there's been nothing official on Dahlman yet. You notice that, that there's been no announcement by the Bears. There's been nothing scheduled. Are they waiting for the 11th? Is there a reason technically why they can't announce this yet or where there can't be any anything further from the team despite the fact that everybody knows this?
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, I haven't seen anything on that. I was wondering that last night why it wasn't made official. And then my just my first thought was maybe they wait till the 11th. Yeah, I'm not sure. I don't know if there's some kind of impact to that or not. Or I mean a player can obviously retire whenever they want to, but correct. Not, not sure when the, when the team needs to make it official. So I just assume they're waiting till next Wednesday.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
And I don't know what the protocols are and I don't know with where the player himself may just want to not make a big deal out of it and say, hey, it's done, send out a one line release and that's that. I because I guarantee you there's some sort of agency here in the way a player wants to do this and the team would then probably have the professional courtesy to allow that to happen. But, but it's maybe they're still trying
Dan Bernstein
to talk him out of it.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I hope not.
Dan Bernstein
Are you sure?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Are you sure football's fun? All that science about how it hurts you. That's it's Not. It's all. It's pseudoscience or. What did you. What did the guy say? What did Ditka's buddy say when they were talking about how.
Dan Bernstein
More red wine?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
No, the secondhand smoke. Remember that they were fighting against the smoking band. Science. That's what he said. I forgot who that idiot was. Oh, smoking's not bad for you. It's all sweet. O Science. Oh, thanks. Thanks for saying that.
Dan Bernstein
So this just says that the announcement of a sudden high level voluntary departure requires time for team administration to process contract, salary, cap and legal details which can delay official announcements beyond initial media reports.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Fine. Yeah, I'm not mad about it. I'm just curious.
Dan Bernstein
Curious. I mean, I thought the same thing. I was, I was scrolling through last night watching stuff and I was just like, why, why hasn't this been official? And I just assumed that there's a process to it and they'll wait till Wednesday.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
So. Yeah, sometimes you're trying to get. You'd think a team would want to be in charge of it or out front of it. And often when it's an older player, it's. They want the publicity for it and they want the press conference and they want to have a team. But this is not a longtime bear who is just kind of finishing up. Nor is it. Remember the Jerry Azuma press conference that we made fun of that day, that it was like, I'm announcing my retirement and come to the press conference. There were no Chicago Bears there at all.
Dan Bernstein
Yes.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
It was just sort of like, why is there a press conference for this? Anyway, the name, when I. That I saw affiliated with this story that gave it some, some, some heft was that it's Joel Corey. We know that name. You've probably heard his voice before. But for CBS Sports, one of the aspects of CBS where I can still think that there's actual work being done is Joel Corey. The former agent does a really good job getting a sense of what things cost and the way agents look at positioning their players. So I always read his stuff with a little extra attention. And as he writes here, he says the exclusive negotiating rights teams have with impending free agents ends on March 9th. That's what we. Then it's. I think we still call it the legal tampering period.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, right.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
That you can negotiate with unrestricted free agents between March 9th at noon and then 4 o' clock eastern March 11th. So they call that legal tampering. Joel Corey says it was my responsibility while working on the agent side to create target or asking prices for Our clients headed toward free agency regardless of whether I was the lead agent. Along those lines, I've set target prices with total contract value, overall guarantees and amount fully guaranteed for 10 offensive players who will be unrestricted free agents or designated as franchise players. And then there's all the caveats. There's players don't necessarily sign for target prices. Free agency is fluid. There's market conditions. Some players have a market that never develops for a variety of reasons. But then he gets into some of this. I want to say too, before we start that here on dbu, we are brought to you in partnership with my bookie. Here are the numbers for center Tyler Linderbaum. This was the first thing I said. I don't even really post on social media, but because we were post show and I didn't know if we were going live, I put out a thought when I first heard oh my God, Drew Dahlman's retiring. And I just said Tyler Linderbaum because that would be that for me, the obvious first choice. So let me just run these numbers by you, okay, and react to this. This is what Joel Corey, who is really good at this. 95 million over four years. 23.75 million per year. Overall guarantees of 60 million fully guaranteed at signing 52.5 million.
Dan Bernstein
Well, that not only makes him the highest paid center in the game, it's not, not even close. I think, I think Creed Humphreys is at. I think he signed a four year 72. So what is that? 18 million a year?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
You're good. You're ahead of me on this, Maddie. The price of Linderbaum's 5th year option salary is the reason why he isn't under contract for 2026. The 23.402 million cost that was the 2025 franchise tag for offensive linemen because he was named to the Pro bowl on the original ballot in both 23 and 24. It doesn't reflect the center market since there aren't specific option year salaries for center, guard and tackle. The amount is the same regardless of position. The NFL's highest paid center is Creed Humphrey with four years $72 million on his extension averaging 18 that he got for the Chiefs. Ravens GM Eric DaCosta revealed during his media session at the combine that he offered Linderbaum a market setting deal to prevent him from becoming a free agent. He also referred to Linderbaum as the league's best center. Here's Joel Corey again. Linderbaum should become the NFL's first $20 million per year center. The Real question is how much above that mark. So there, there's. That, that, that's. This seems to be. And if Joel Corey says it, that he's, he's good at this stuff. So somebody. And I don't know if this. All you need are two teams to be in a bidding war. All you need are two. I don't know if the Bears are going to tiptoe up to being that one or going to hang in this particular game of guts poker until they have to make a call in or out.
Dan Bernstein
And you said the Ravens offered him a deal that would set the market at center.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
That's what it says here. Yeah, it says Eric dacosta that he said he, he has offered Linderbaum a market setting deal.
Dan Bernstein
All right, so let's assume that he offered him 20 million.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay. Let's start there.
Dan Bernstein
And he said, no, no, no, thank you.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
20 million? No.
Dan Bernstein
And then your guy here said he, he believes 23 and a half.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
That be the number. That's where he came in. On what his estimation. If he were representing Linder Bob.
Dan Bernstein
Okay. That's what he would, that's what he would ask for. That's what interesting because I heard, I saw Greg Gabriel on, on online and talking about the center position and people saying that, oh, he's gonna, he's gonna demand 20 plus. And Gabriel was like, that's, that's not accurate because that's more than the best center in the game makes.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Right. But that changes with it. That changes all the time. Right?
Dan Bernstein
Oh, I know, I know. So it just, it's just to read between the lines. Gabriel's evaluation obviously is that Creed Humphrey is the, is the top guy and that no one should make more than him, but that's just not how it works. Regardless of the talent level. Even if you think Creed Humphrey is a better center than Linda Baum.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah. The market decides who gets paid.
Dan Bernstein
Then he's, he's still, he still could make, certainly make more money. So. Yeah, dude, I mean, even at 20 million, the Bears aren't going to pay that. Bears are paying 20 million a year and if he's going to Demand or get 22, 23, 24 million, that's, that's not happening.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I also found it very strange too, and I don't know why this happened while we're just doing some football stuff here. Did you see that the Bears are the odds on favorite to get Max Crosby?
Dan Bernstein
I did see that, yes.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Where does that come from? I look, I don't.
Dan Bernstein
That all just comes from online Speculation how you have the Caleb Williams on his podcast. You have.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
It's a.
Dan Bernstein
It would be a fit for Max Crosby. You know, it's that. That hard playing grindy white guy that you know would fit well in a blue collar team and a blue collar city like the Bears. And it's just, it's all those things there, there's. There's nothing, there's nothing concrete to it other than speculation at this point. That's all, that's all there is. The Bears have a need. He wants out. Well, that's a great fit. Oh my God. Kayla Williams was on his podcast. They must be best friends now. He's certainly going to Chicago. I think. I think that's more driven by what people want. And this is obviously a very large influential fan base even within media.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah, I think it's going to be. It's going to take more time overall for us to understand the nature of prediction markets when it comes to things actually happening in sports. Yeah. And we're still in the infancy of some of these things, especially now that we have what is called the future contract markets that are allowed to be in sports because of some arcane legal distinctions. Those being polymarket and Kalshee that are the feel that they are in a position to take away all of the web of these sort of interstate laws with no stronger federal oversight on what's legal, where and when that the. The prediction futures contract markets are basically going to be sports betting with technically without being sports betting. Right. And I don't know where the analysis of the markets fits into to being predictive yet. I just don't and I'm not sure that people do. I just found it interesting that all of a sudden the bears were like minus 145. I think it on DraftKings. I follow our guy Joe Ostrowski very closely just because I think he's one of the smartest people doing this and also has a larger sense of where it fits. But something that he put on his Twitter feed that right now, as far as favorites to land Max Crosby, the Bears are minus 145 like odds on and the Raiders are still plus 165.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. It doesn't matter where you look what online platform that you're checking out Max Crosby on the Bears just seem to go hand in hand with it. And I think just that it just seems like it's a good fit and people want that fit to happen. And we'll talk about it more. I'm glad you bring it up because I want to talk about it more on forward progress. I want to lead off with the Max Crosby thing with the Bears offensive line, so lots to get into as far as that's concerned.
Commercial Announcer
Good.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I'm glad you said that because I, you know, I didn't do a super deep dive in this. There's other things I want to get into. But when I saw that number for Linderbaum and like, I. He's such a perfect fit for them, though. He's just ideal for an outside zone run. Get on the move, get out and find people. You know, you hit your guy, chip over here and then. And then move on to the next.
Dan Bernstein
What is he, 24, 25?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah, yeah.
Dan Bernstein
Right. I mean, yeah. So, hey, you know, maybe with, with Drew Dahlman's retirement, the Bears say, hey, we could lock this guy down.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
And have him develop and grow with Caleb. We have Caleb for the next you decade. Let's get a guy there that can be our next Drew Dolman, even though, you know, Domin only played five years. But let's get a guy that can be here as an anchor of this offensive line regardless of when Joe Tooney retires and Jonah Jackson, that we can fill guys in that we're going to have the head coach, we're going to have the quarterback, we're going to have the center.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
And the problem is that when you start looking at a world in which you've paid Caleb Williams, all the numbers have a different meaning at that point. And you don't want to. You want to do this deal now and then be like, hey, Tyler, we can't pay now. We can't afford you because we paid our quarterback. Right. Or.
Dan Bernstein
Or you look at it and say, all right, you're going to lock down what percentage of your salary cap, which continues to increase each year at your quarterback and center position.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah. It's so funny though, as you better
Dan Bernstein
get good at, really good at the
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
draft and the nature. Yes. This is why the draft matters so much. And this is why the, the really, really good teams are drafting and developing their own talent that they don't have to keep getting older. Talent that isn't retained by other teams for whatever reason.
Dan Bernstein
You know, it's interesting that you bring that up too, because another area of discussion for Ford progress today I did a little bit of a, A deep dive. Nothing crazy, but a little bit of a deep dive on the Los Angeles rams and Sean McVay and what they do with their first round picks, which is not use them. So all their picks want to Talk about it. And it's really interesting to see the success they've had and how that correlates to what they've done with their pick. So we'll get more to that as well, too.
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Safeway and Albertsons have made saving easier than ever with great savings on family favorites this week. 16 ounce sweet strawberries are two for $5 member price. And don't miss the incredible deal on signature select boneless skill skinless chicken breast value packs for 2.97 per pound limit. One plus medium avocados or mangoes are five for $5 member price. Fresh and delicious savings for every meal. Hurry in. These deals won't last. Visit Safeway or albertsons.com for more deals and ways to save.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
You know, whenever the stakes are high, my bookie is where you turn bets into bankroll. There's always a big matchup on the schedule. Everybody's watching, everybody has a take. No matter the sport, the props can be just as fun as the final score. And when you start experimenting with some of these prop bets and you start following box scores, it's actually helped me understand some games a little bit better. When you start looking at individual trends and why guys do what they do, my bookie has all that fun on their prop board because it's deep, it's fun to play. You got player performances, you've got game milestones, everything in between. And it's the kind of action that keeps things interesting all season long, regardless of teams, records and such. This is a great time to get in. Couple reasons. First of all, tournaments, conference tournaments, and then the college stuff is going to be starting up before you know it. Geez, it's already March 5th. I mean it. God, yes. Yeah. Although the local water temperature isn't quite heating up there. Come on now.
Dan Bernstein
Well, it's going to be 70.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I know, I know.
Dan Bernstein
Tomorrow, 70.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
60. 60. 60. So we need that. We need that shoreline water tem. You're into the 40s, and then it's absolutely go time, and then you are not going to see much of me. So it's one account. It's one wallet. I mean, you'll see me.
Dan Bernstein
Oh, I'll still see you.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
And look, and if you are one of the people who wanders the shoreline and sees the crazy people out there, you say, is that. Is that Bernstein? Yes. Come say hi, please. I can't tell you how many people and how. How good it was for me. The. My mental health last year. They. The conversation. Don't, please don't be shy. If you do see me out fishing, because that's part of the joy of it for me is talking to people. Trust me. Well, yeah, the catching fish is good, too.
Dan Bernstein
The talking to the fish.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I may occasionally talk to a fish and to myself. If I'm muttering to myself, feel free to interrupt. My bookie is all at MyBookie AG. One account, one wallet. Bet the spread live, bet the action. Jump into the casino during halftime or between games and write this down, this code, dbu. DBU for Dan Bernstein. Unfiltered. That's your code to get your first bet covered, up to 500 bucks. If it doesn't hit your bet back, bonus token is there. You run it back, and then you're not just watching the action, you're in it, and you're making it pay. With my bookie at MyBookie AG and the code DBU.
Dan Bernstein
Give you an update on my bookie, my picks. Now, going into Yesterday, I was 23, 7 and 1. I did four games. Last night, I went 3 and 1. So now I'm up to 26, 8 and 1.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Wow.
Dan Bernstein
Quite the run that's happening. So I had. I had the Knicks getting four and a half against okc, and the Knicks lost by three, so we won that one. Another note that's been fun about this, too, because I've been. I've been watching more NBA, like, outside of the Bulls, obviously. And then particularly when I'm in the car and I'm driving the Yukon, I got the serious going, listening to more NBA radio than I ever had.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
No, the Yukon. If I just said you were driving to the Yukon.
Dan Bernstein
No, no, no, the Yukon.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay.
Dan Bernstein
So. Yeah, our big family car. So I'm driving around for sports last night, and I'm listening, by the way,
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
and flipping around those pictures you posted on Instagram of the boys. They're so good. Are you taking those?
Dan Bernstein
No, no. So we had a photographer come out for a couple games to take pictures of all the. All the different levels.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Oh. Because they were so cool and like, God, the resemblance to you is just painful. It's. It's. It's. There's certain facial expressions that are just like. They both kids just look like your face.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. No, well, thanks. Yeah, no, we had a. A professional guy come out and took pictures of all the kids at all the levels. And then all the parents get access to them.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Oh, that's great.
Dan Bernstein
No cost, which is cool. Yeah, well, I mean, we pay for it somehow, but.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah, but there's so much stuff you can do with those. You Know, with, like, you got to save these things for, you know, their. Their like, rehearsal dinners and stuff.
Dan Bernstein
So it's funny. So last night I was going through them, and I had Natalie get me some of Griffin and Lucas as well, because I'm like, here, send me, like, your favorite ones because I'm going to. I'm going to blow some up and then frame them and put them down here in the basement.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yes.
Dan Bernstein
And then I started doing that with the baseball pictures, too. And there's a really cool one that I had forgotten about that I saw actually on our aura. It scrolled through last night and I was like, oh, I forgot about that picture. So it's Griff at shortstop, Henry at second base. This is 9U baseball, and they've come together. They're in the shot together, and the ball was thrown. I can't remember who threw it, if Griff threw it or if Hank threw it. But it's like the picture was taken from behind first base. So all you see is the ball coming up, you know, in like, a closer proximity to the camera, and then those two in the background. Oh, that's so cool. It's a really cool picture.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah, that's so cool. I should bring this in. We found there's a hardcover book that was made from Shutterfly from this photographer we had for Jason's 8U baseball team. Oh, cool. Like his very first year playing travel, and the ball looks huge in his hand when he's pitching. It's hysterical.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, so we started doing that last night.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Going through struggle face and like. And like the.
Dan Bernstein
The.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
It's. It's. We were dying watching, looking at all these pictures.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, it's funny, like, a year after we started dating, Natalie made a book like that for me of my food.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
No wonder you married her. Yeah, it's.
Dan Bernstein
It's really cool. Yeah, it's really, really cool.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
All right.
Dan Bernstein
So anyway, yeah, then I had the Clippers minus 12 and a half on the Pacers, and they won 130 to 107. So I'm like, good there. I had Memphis plus nine against Portland, and they lost 122, 114, but I won 123, 122. So we're good there. And if I had to pick one game going into last night that I thought was my definite lock of the night, it would have been Celtics hosting Charlotte. And Charlotte kicked the absolute shit out of Boston.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Charlotte's good. Yeah. Dude, they're killed him.
Dan Bernstein
It was like 1118 to 89. I mean, the Celtics could not do anything to buy a basket.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah, Charlotte plays hard.
Dan Bernstein
And so that one.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
That one cannipple is your rookie of the year. That was so tick, dude, Not Cooper flag.
Dan Bernstein
I thought for sure. I'm, like, looking at these four, I'm like, all right. The one I feel the best about of the Celtics. Celtics will lay six and a half at home, and they'll beat Charlotte. They did not show up to do anything. Score. Play defense. It was ticked. So, Dan, what am I doing? Because I'm a psycho. I'm playing five games a night instead, okay? Because why wouldn't I.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Why wouldn't you?
Dan Bernstein
I mean, I win three. I win three. I win three. All right. I go four games. I go for three and one. What should I do? Play five games.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
So you're not chasing. You're playing with house money right now.
Dan Bernstein
That's all. So let's go all the excuses.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Go get them.
Dan Bernstein
If you haven't done my bookie yet, do my bookie.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Ag.
Dan Bernstein
Get your account in there. It's.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
And do.
Dan Bernstein
Do a little. Do what you can. Don't do something that's gonna. That's gonna harm yourself.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Don't be stupid.
Dan Bernstein
You know, don't be stupid with it.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Don't be stupid.
Dan Bernstein
Have fun with it. And I'm telling you, it's. It's a little bit, and I'm having fun, and it's actually getting me involved. I'm actually looking forward to NBA playoffs, which is what I know. Is that stupid. I'm, like, looking at NBA games every night now.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
But I'm going to say that is the official sports gambling position of. Of dbu. Don't be an idiot.
Dan Bernstein
Don't. Well, not only is it the gambling thing, it's. It's like a life thing.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
General. Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
It's a parenting thing. It's a marriage thing. It's a person thing. It's a human thing.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Is. Please don't be an idiot.
Dan Bernstein
Don't be an idiot.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
And be nice. That it's really all that. It's pretty easy.
Dan Bernstein
That's it. I mean, that's. That's on my next shirt. I'm putting together my shirt company.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Easy way to go to. Oh, I. I had some ideas for some shirts I need to bounce off of you, by the way.
Dan Bernstein
Okay.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Involving. Yeah, it's. I'll tell you. I just. I wrote them down last night, but I didn't bring in what I wrote down.
Dan Bernstein
I had. Let's do it.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Bring in the mean.
Dan Bernstein
Give me Nate.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay. So again, that's Lastly, I just want to say that if you see these Max Crosby odds and you're looking around, I want to know why and I just want to know what people know that I don't or if it's absolutely nothing. Here's what I do know, and that is the Every Major League Baseball team needs a hard plan for how they're going to do ABS challenges this year. Now, there's been some celebration this morning regarding Moises by Esteros. On a heater yesterday, he won three straight challenges as a catcher. I don't know how many games Moises by Astero is going to catch because you can't really play him in the field. He's a DH and maybe. But you have two good catchers and guys in Amaya and Carson Kelly who are going to take up much of that time. I don't know what you're going to do with Ballesteros. I know they want his bat in the lineup somewhere because he's. He makes contact, he's got a little bit of pop, he gets on, he's got a good command of the strike zone. We know that as a hitter is on. Base percentage should be relatively high. I don't know if it's going to justify the lack of power or if he's going to find the power. Either way, he was really good at his ABS challenges. So second inning, oh one. And called a ball by a Steros challenge. It was strike two, two foul balls and then it was a curveball outside edge, called a ball overturned strikeout. Then he did the same low and outside change or whatever you call Edward Cabrera's change. That isn't a change. That'll be subject of a discussion another time because it's like four miles an hour less than his fastball with a lot more.
Dan Bernstein
I thought it was four miles an hour.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Now that would be a change with the same arm speed. Yes. Yeah. Wow. I don't know how he does it, but I'm sitting here watching like a.
Dan Bernstein
Like a Bugs Bunny cartoon where he swings three times at the same pitch.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah, the. The one, two, three strikes you're out. But the so. Well, yeah, we'll talk about that pitch later. So the Cubs have not really announced how they're going to do this. I don't know if anybody has asked specifically to Craig Council what the plan is. And then you think, oh, what's the big deal? Well, can I tell you why it's a huge deal and there was an entire piece that was that my guy Joe Sheehan wrote. And yes, as we are getting closer to baseball season, you will hear from Joe. If you haven't subscribed to his two baseball newsletters right now, you need to subscribe to are Craig Calcatera cup of Coffee and the Joe Sheehan newsletter that you're not an informed enough baseball fan and you're not understanding the game well enough and the context, most importantly, of everything that goes on without following these two guys. And they're almost daily thoughts for Craig, it is pretty much daily. And the challenge system, according to Joe, how he breaks it down and this is, it's been in the use, in use in the minors. So we do have data, we do have an understanding of how this is, this is all worked. A team that wins the challenge, keeps it. One that loses a challenge loses it. You lose two, you're done for the game. Okay? Are we clear on that? You win, you keep challenging. You lose two, you're done. Yes. Last spring's experiment matched the minor league results with about 50% of challenges being successful. You flipping a coin until you get two tails, you'd expect to get to four flips on average. But there's variance around that means. Okay, that's the math on it. 50, 50 challenges are too valuable to let players control their usage. Unbounded players react instinctively. They'll be wrong about half the time. So it's up to the manager to control challenges to ensure they're used when they have the most value. And what Sheehan says in this piece, it's an unnecessarily complicated system that turns what should be a black and white piece of information, ball or strike, into a decision that requires layers and layers of analysis. Oh, God, here goes Bernstein again, taking something simple and making it really complicated. No, because you're going to be remembering this when the Cubs are in the playoffs and they are in a deciding game or they're in a game you don't even realize at the time is a deciding game. We saw it last year in some of those at bats with Brad Keller against the Padres. You remember those calls with, with Machado and Tatis and some of these guys in these unbelievable high leverage situations. You don't control leverage in baseball. You don't control leverage in baseball. You control. You don't control leverage in baseball. The value of a challenge waxes and wanes from batter to batter and pitch to pitch. Here's an example. Leadoff hitters had a 110 ops plus last year. Number three hitters had a 117 ops plus. Number eight hitters average an 84. So there's far more value in a challenge by Aaron Judge or Freddie Freeman than won by Anthony Volpe or Andy Pius because there's more value in the rest of their plate appearances. Challenges should be conserved for use by or against a team's better hitters. Now, that's not the only factor. Every plate appearance occurs in a context that's expressed in a run expectancy chart. Played appearances with runners on base and runners in scoring position have more value than ones with bases empty. Challenges should be conserved for use in situations when the most potential runs are in the balance. Win expectancy can be taken into account. A missed call later in the game has a greater win expectancy impact than one earlier. And we see this in how basketball teams do it. Just sort of feeling it when there's a call goes unchallenged in the NBA because they'd rather have the challenge later. That's just intuitive. They're not looking at a chart. A failed challenge in the top of the third of a two nothing game is one that you cannot use in the top of the 9th of a 33 game. They have to be conserved for leverage. Now that's just the start of it. In any plate appearance, the leverage shifts pitch by pitch between pitcher and batter. We focus on calls that end or could end a matchup strikeout walk. The big swings happen earlier in the matchup when a batter takes the first pitch and he falls behind oh and 1. His expected ops is.607. If he's 1 and oh, the expected ops is 8:06, that's 200 points of ops hinging on the call being right. And that's not even the big one. The difference between being ahead 2 and 1 and being behind 1 and 2 is 300 points of ops. So you should be more angry about a blown call on one and one than those in any other category because of how difference how big a difference they make in the course of the at bat and the game. I want you just remember this that that one and one call in leverage can be the game. Challenges should be reserved for pitches where the gap in value between a ball and strike is largest. 1 and 1 and 3 and 2. The ladder is the difference between an on base percentage of 1000 and an on base percentage of 0. A team could do worse than to start a policy of only challenging three and two pitches, though it means you're not challenging enough. The decision has to be made immediately. There's no time to consult a teammate. Players are supposed to react to the call and not consider the context. That's how the system's designed. The best approach is red light, green light. Make it like signs for base runners in which a player knows heading to the plate whether they are allowed to challenge a call based on their skills and the state of the game. This is this is all managerial here. These players are versed in basic strategy, which means challenge, high value counts challenge 11 challenge 32 decline 0230 he said. I say players though I'm thinking through eyes of hitters. This is, Sheehan says. One of the things I've hated the most about 15 years of catcher framing conversations is the way they treat batters as NPCs just there as a bystander. The interactions of pitcher, catcher and umpire what a great frame job is more often also what a great take of a pitch outside the strike zone the batter did and was conspired against is that my hope has been that we can get full ABS refocus on the pitcher batter matchup rather than one on three that these had bass disintegrate into we're not there yet, but the batters have some recourse. So here's the decision matrix that ends up being a complex table of game state, batter, pitcher, platoon considerations and the count. The count you start the process before the batter walks to the plate. Red green system the batter sees from the dugout via the or via the third base coach Only my best hitters can challenge the first two times throughout the Sorry Kyle Isabel, but we need to save the challenges for Bobby Whitt Jr. No batter can challenge without at least one runner in scoring position. No pitcher can ever challenge. These are Joe's ideas. The success rates on challenges last spring Catchers 56% Batters 50% Pitchers 41 it makes sense because catchers have a great angle, batters lesser and pitchers are finishing their motion as the pitch crosses the plate, he said. I would have a blanket policy of Pitchers can never challenge rare, situational or player specific exceptions. Catchers reserve challenges for good hitters, higher leverage situations, critical counts, he said. Let Sidon Rafaela take a Kyle Bradish slider to get to one and one in the bottom of the second. Even if you think the call was wrong, you'll be fine. As the game moves on, expand the pool of players who can challenge or for catchers, hitters who can be challenged more hitters are given permission with runners in scoring position when leading off an inning. Your better power hitters can challenge the runner on first and no runners on depending on when you have one or two left as a factor. Now your data and strategy people have to create a matrix based on the situation, the hit or the pitcher. They fed the information into the dugout in binders or tablets. The manager or the bench coach sees the data, lets the player know whether he has permission to challenge. The challenge system isn't going to change baseball much, sheen says. I'm curious as how the who gets to challenge issue plays out. Will rookies be asked to wear bad calls so veterans can have challenges available? Will batters focus their challenges on big swing counts or react to a 20 pitch that they think was low? Which teams let pitchers challenge? All these things are interesting fodder for discussion. Said I'm not sure the sport needed another area for analytics departments to shine. Those staffs will have a greater impact on who challenges and when than anyone else will. They're too valuable to leave them in the hands of the players. See that that's the big conclusion here is now you need an in game pitch challenge department. Maybe it's one guy, maybe it's three people. But I want Craig Counsel and Will Venable asked all of these questions. Even if they don't answer, that's fine. To what extent is there a nascent analytics team that is able to do this? Are you going to have hard and fast rules? Are those rules going to change? How often are you going to assess the success or failure of your own rules to do this? Because this would and all as much as you may think, oh, this is a waste of time now. This is unnecessarily complicated. Wait until the first time you think you got screwed. Wait until that time because I want to do this now. Because you're going to be, you're going to be coming here and you're going to be saying why didn't they this, why didn't this? What is their policy? Let's figure it out now and let's start asking managers now about how seriously they're taking this and where they think, especially the Cubs, who do have a very strong analytics group. Maybe ask Carter Hawkins about it. But there are so many unintended consequences of this that you know, we're going to see in October and November. 100%. 100%. This is going to matter in October and November and it might just matter for the Cubs.
Dan Bernstein
You know, I, I like the idea of having this, this abs. I like having the challenges. I saw it firsthand. Was it two or three years ago we were down in Louisville and We saw a Louisville Bats game.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
You don't even notice it after a while.
Dan Bernstein
We're able to see. And I, I liked it. I liked that players were able to challenge things and saw that it took a matter of seconds to correct the call or confirm the call. Whatever, whatever it was. Now just, I mean. And I mean, I'm not trying to all over the process here, but, like, just hearing all of that now, I just felt really heavy. Really.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I understand that.
Dan Bernstein
Weighed down by the whole thing that I, that I was like, really enjoyed they added. I was like, this is a positive thing. They've added now all of that thought. I'm just like, oh, my God, this is so heavy.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Well, it's all going to be in a laptop. It's all on somebody's phone. Like, you're not gonna have to worry about the gory math here.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, I know, but.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
But it's just, it's just understanding. Challenge one, one, Challenge three, two. Those are the ones where you have the wide differentials in outcomes. And I think these, these larger concepts of, of runners on base, the leverage of the situation, and are you a good enough player where your plate appearance matters so much more than anybody else?
Dan Bernstein
Nobody else is sure.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I get it.
Dan Bernstein
And you know, one thing I would love, this is where my, my brain goes. And this would be impossible to do, but I would love to have seen a study of the impact of, like, bad calls. But you can't predict the outcomes. That would have been like, if there was a 2, 2 call that was called a third strike, and it wasn't a third strike and the guy got 3, 2, we would have no idea knowing what that guy would do. He could still certainly strike out at 3:2. But I would, I would love to know the impact of what bad calls did to teams. But there's no way to know that.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
To do the sliding doors to just say, can we, can we live in a world in which this pitch was called this? Because there's. There are too many permutations to a baseball game. Yeah, it's why we love it. Yeah. It's why we absolutely adore baseball, is because there's no clock. And these calls outs are the currency of the game.
Dan Bernstein
Well, Bernstein is a pitch clock. No, I love it. Yeah, I know.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I love the pitch clock. But there's nothing that determines the actual end of the game. A clock. Can't say it is now time for the game to be over.
Dan Bernstein
No, but it makes sure it's not too long. Otherwise people stop watching. God forbid you watch A long baseball game.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
Just stop watching then. Then go about your life. If the game's too long, then go. Leave it. It's fine.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
You don't have to watch. I don't mind the length. Generally.
Dan Bernstein
I've never cared about length.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Oh, I stayed up for all the playoffs.
Dan Bernstein
If I don't want to watch anymore, I just stop watching. If I don't want to be there anymore, I just leave.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I know. Like, oh, it's so long. I don't want to do this.
Dan Bernstein
Then don't. You don't have to do it. That's the point of it.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I did it last night. It had been a long time since I saw that I had seen the first act of the Fugitive.
Dan Bernstein
Okay?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Like, I've seen the, like, the middle and the end. I don't know why. It's like, it's on. You see? Blah, blah. The movie was starting. Like, it's just to see the courtroom scenes and all that stuff.
Dan Bernstein
Do you watch the whole thing?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I actually looked at the clock, and I'm like, what am I doing here? Well, what time was it? I had my dinner. It was like, 10:30. Go to bed, schmuck. Yeah, you know, I'm just like, I know how this ends. I can recite almost every line. I know that Charles Nichols lied to him. I know that it was Lentz. And Charles Nichols is bad.
Dan Bernstein
Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa. Relax, dude.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Spoiler alert.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, people haven't seen it. You don't need to tell the whole movie.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
And then. And then, of course, I was trying to remember the name of the actor who played Charles Nichols, and I would not let myself look at my phone.
Dan Bernstein
Oh, I would never remember.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I remembered the first name, but not the last name.
Dan Bernstein
What was it? What's his first name?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Jeroen. J E R O E N Kraba K K R A B B E.
Dan Bernstein
Not in a million years. Not in a million years.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I remembered the first. I was like, jerry, Jerome. It's Jerome. Jerome. His name's Jerome. I'm like, it's not Jerome, but it sounds like Jerome. And I was. And then Zoe's like, are you talking to yourself? And I said, yeah, you got a problem with it? Like, yes, I'm talking to myself. And she's like, what are you. Are you working on a bit for the show? Because I will occasionally wander around and talk to myself when I'm talking through something. And I said, no, I'm not. And she said, what are you doing? I said, I'm trying to remember the name of that actor. And she goes, why do you have to talk to yourself while you do it? I said, it helps. It helps. And leave me alone. Correct.
Dan Bernstein
Good answers.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
It's my house. I live here. And if I want to sit here like a crazy person and eat my dinner and talk to myself, I'm allowed. So that's how I ended it. I've got another hot sports thought for you, and it's this. Shut up about Shea Gilgeous Alexander. Stop whining. Stop complaining. Oh, this guy, he just. He just shoots free throws because he's so good. And he goes foul baiting and foul hunting. You know why? Because he's a great damn player.
Dan Bernstein
And people are complaining about this stuff.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Oh, everywhere. It happens every year. And the whole thing about now with the. You can't officiate Oklahoma City because Shea Gilgis Alexander is. He's always showing that he got fouled. You know what? That is a skill. That's NBA ball. That's basketball. Show me the most of the greatest scorers of all time in any era. And as long as free throws are given for somebody who is fouled in the act of shooting or in the bonus, there are going to be people who are great at getting fouled because they're quick and they're athletic and they get you leaning in a way that gets you compromised. Or they stop really quickly and start really quickly, or they have the eyebrow fake. What Shea Gilgeous Alexander is doing is the same reason you can argue that DeMar DeRozan can get in the hall of Fame. It is the same way that Michael Jordan was able to with his. His. His strength to use all kinds of grabs and push offs and leans to get to the foul line in critical situations and draw and ones in critical situations. It's a skill and I don't know why. Where it's an aesthetic problem. I get it. I never went. When James Harden was doing this, I was very vocal about saying it's. It's not the greatest thing in the world to watch. But that's a me problem because the rules of the game say that if a guy is that good at getting fouled, he should be incentivized to keep doing it. And if you're going to score, whatever you score a game, 28 or 35 or 40, whatever percentage of those are free throws, because you are good at evincing that you were fouled, you're good at showing you got fouled. It's not falling on the floor necessarily. There's some of that, but some Guys are bad at. Always bothered me about Derrick Rose, that people celebrated the fact that he was too Chicago tough to show he got fouled. Okay, well, you know what? He might have had a longer career because it's a great way to lengthen a career and make your scoring less of a wear and tear generator on your body is to do it standing by yourself at the foul line with nobody guarding you.
Dan Bernstein
All right, Mr. Basketball, Mr. NBA.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah.
Dan Bernstein
I have a list here in front of me of the most free throws attempted in a career. Most free throws attempted. Okay, can you tell me any of the top 10?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I can try. I would say Kareem.
Dan Bernstein
You would be correct. Kareem Abdul Jabbar is. Sorry, I'm just scrolling through my phone. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. He is ninth.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay, how about Carl Malone?
Dan Bernstein
Karl Malone is number one. Okay, most free throws attempted.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yeah, pretty. Also. Also really good at getting fouled.
Dan Bernstein
How about he attempted 13,188 free throws in his career.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Yes, I know. How about Kobe?
Dan Bernstein
Kobe's on the list. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. He is sixth.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay, how about Harden?
Dan Bernstein
James Harden is on the list. 4, 5, 6, 7th.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay, how about Moses Malone?
Dan Bernstein
Moses Malone also on the list. He is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5th.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay, is LeBron on there?
Dan Bernstein
LeBron is on the list at number two.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay.
Dan Bernstein
He's at 11,000, 964. So that's 12,000. So he's. He's over. He's a little thousand less than Carl Malone.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Jordan.
Dan Bernstein
Jordan is. What did I say?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
That I got a played long enough compared to some of these.
Dan Bernstein
No, Jordan's 12th in attempts.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay. Yeah, just. He didn't. He just didn't have a long enough career compared to some of these people.
Dan Bernstein
Tim Duncan, he is not in the top 10.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Okay, well, I mean, I can sit here all day and try to.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah, you're good. All right, so Karl Malone, LeBron James, Wilt Chamberlain, Shaquille O', Neal, Moses Malone, Kobe Bryant, James Harden, Dwight Howard, Kareem Abdul jabbar. And number 10 is Oscar Robertson.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Oh, wow. And Shay Gilgamesh Alexander has led the league in multiple years in free throws made. And he. Look, the guy shoots like 90%. Why wouldn't you just stop being mad at it? And the idea of being good at showing you got fouled or being good at helping the refs make their call is. It's a skill. I always said this, you know, Kobe Bryant, Kobe White should never cut his hair. And I haven't seen charts that show this. But I guarantee you, the moment he grew his hair out and wore it like that, and every time somebody bumps him, he can flip that, that, that, that big head of hair back. I guarantee you that head shake has gotten his. No doubt in my mind, absolutely no doubt in my mind that he has worked on that skill. That when you have this, this giant mop of hair that is able to show the ref that there was something that looked awkward or different or threw you off, that absolutely helps show that the. And, and like I always say, I would always say, like, Derrick Rose got fouled all the time and never complained, never said anything, never played that game. You're like, oh, Derek's too tough for that. He doesn't bother with any of that stuff. He's outdoor Chicago tough and all that. We're like, yeah, but that's. That's just not efficient basketball. Efficient pro basketball is availing yourself of all of those chances and having a time. It helps you rest. That's what the great players understand. That's what Moses Malone understood, is how often he. And the time he would take. He would put his goggles up, he would take a couple of deep breaths. And you know, DeMar DeRozan's amazing at that when he uses those time when he'll fall down and he won't get up because he's resting. And that's a skill within a game of understanding how to keep your energy up and sometimes being able to lie on the floor for a little extra time. You know, Jason, I would always call demarring. Is that guy okay? He's just demarring. He's just demarring. He just. And that's right. You just. All right, you're found. Whatever. The game has stopped. You're fine. Take a little extra time. Have a teammate come over and help you up. I asked Billy Donovan about this, too. This year. I asked Billy Donovan about Modest and about the. How often he's pushed in the back on rebounds. And that's a big guy skill of. It doesn't mean you have to fall down. But it's very easy to show the ref, this guy's climbing on me. This guy's pushing me. You're just. You. There's some guys who are better at it than others, and Modest doesn't really care about it and doesn't do it. And he's got to develop it. He has to develop it if he's. If he's going to max out. And what Donovan said was like, yeah, there are, there are players who are great at it. And it is a skill, but it's one that's developed over time. You can't coach it that you, you have to coach, play as hard as you can. Ignore whistles, just go, go, go. Do play as hard as you can all the time. And he said some of that just the player themselves have to, have to come up with some of those abilities that a coach doesn't want to get in the game of coaching some of that stuff, which I understand, but maybe you want an assistant at the end of practice to come over like, hey man, you know, there's there, I wouldn't mind a little bit of acting class in, in that regard because it definitely does matter to help the refs make those calls. Bottom, bottom line, leave Shay Gil, just Alexander alone. The guy's unbelievable. He was last year's mvp. He is really, really good at forcing defenders into compromised positions and he's not afraid to show you that he's done it. Lastly, and this is for you, Maddie. Okay. This is, I want to put this in here. And I was kind of thinking about this and it's only for you just because you are our resident sort of representative of Top Gun Nation because both of the movies are important to you and important to your identity. We saw the news that three US F15Es were shot down over Kuwait earlier in the week.
Dan Bernstein
Yep.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Three of them. Three of our, the, the, the US's top air superiority fighters, three all shot down. The pilots all ejected safely. So they're fine. So get that out. Everything's, everything's okay. They're fine. But who shot them down? One Kuwaiti pilot. People thought that these were ground based air defenses, that these were surface to air missiles that might have activated automatically or were AI powered and locked on and made these three hits. How could this happen? It wasn't that. According to the Wall Street Journal, Lara Seligman of the Wall Street Journal reported it was one Kuwaiti FA18 fighter jet. Yes, that's an American plane. The FA18 is the primary carrier based fighter attack plane. That's what the FA stands for. That replaced which plane, Maddie?
Dan Bernstein
What did it replace?
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
The what? What was largely taken out of commission because it was just considered past its prime as this versatile fighter attack plane.
Dan Bernstein
Wait, you said the F15 was shot
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
down, right, the F15E, that's, that is the air superiority fighter. What did the, the FA18 famously, and it's kind of referenced in Top Gun 2, what is the plane they have to fly at the end of Top Gun 2?
Dan Bernstein
The F14.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Correct. The Tomcat or the Swing Wing Tomcat. The F. A18. This one plane by himself or herself, themselves shot down. Three American F15E's. So when we start talking about Top Gun, promote this pilot.
Dan Bernstein
Well, I. Yeah, I. I think, though, part of the fact that. That it's. Would be considered friendly fire, that maybe they weren't expecting. They weren't expecting to be shot upon.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
That's. That's probably.
Dan Bernstein
Oh, hey. Oh, there's a Kuwaiti jet. Yeah, all good. Whoa. Holy shit. Whoa. We're gonna eject this motherfucker. Shot me down.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Is that like the. The Jake Johansson bit about hunting cows? You could hunt cows with a hammer. You walk up and the cow says, what's the hammer for?
Dan Bernstein
So, yeah, I think that's probably part of it. I don't think it speaks to that pilot superiority.
Commercial Announcer
I don't know.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
He's in a lesser plane for dog fighting, in a lesser plane for combat. The F15E should be able to easily outmaneuver one of these things.
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. But they probably weren't trying to. Probably just came up on them and they're like, hey, this guy's getting awfully close.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
What's happening?
Dan Bernstein
Holy shit.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Hey, Steve, Steve, Steve. Okay. All right. I just. I just found it interesting that they. After he shot one. This is the thing, though, I understand accidentally downing One American. F15.
Dan Bernstein
Phone calls we made.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Aha. Yeah. Now we're thinking here, or. Or maybe you have an AWACS up there, something, you know, kind of coaching.
Dan Bernstein
You got your. Hey, buddy, you just shot down, you know, an American pilot, right.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
The AWACS would function as, like, the offensive coordinator up in the booth, looking at everything and maybe like, you know, I don't think this is correct, but the. The guy. The guy got three. I don't know. Did he put the little decals on the side of his plane? Did he. Did he. Did he put the.
Dan Bernstein
You don't get recognition for that.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
I don't know.
Dan Bernstein
And then, you know. And then, you know. Thankfully, as you mentioned, all three pilots ejected safe. They're all safe on the ground in Kuwait. But then you have Kuwaiti ground forces run up on them thinking they're Iranian pilots. Then it's like, oh, no, you're good. You're an American pilot.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
What.
Dan Bernstein
What happened? I don't know. One of your fucking planes shot me down.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Exactly.
Dan Bernstein
Oh, who's that floating down in the sky? That's. Oh, that's my buddy Jim.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
What's he doing? Jim? What? The man, I don't know. There's all three of them just, like, floating right next to each other, arms
Dan Bernstein
up in the air, like.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Did that happen? Did that. I get you?
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. Luckily, that doesn't cost a whole lot of money.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
So we're good, right? It's like Fortnite. You can just kind of. You just reset it. You could just. You could just immediately start up a new game, and then. And then you're set, as far as I know. Right? Is it just like Fortnite?
Dan Bernstein
Yeah. It's fine.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
You're back on the. On the bus.
Dan Bernstein
Not a big deal.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Not a big deal. All good. I just thought, as a longtime Top Gun guy. Yeah, you would. You are our air warfare expert on dbu.
Dan Bernstein
I'm sure Agent Orange will just pay for that out of his pocket.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
It's fine. Sure. Why not? March is here, and that means college basketball is heating up, which means it's time to get in on the action with my bookie. Conference races are tightening up. Bubble teams are fighting for their lives. Every game matters. Every possession feels bigger. And it's when things start to get really fun or you get really angry. There's so many angry people. There are people mad. My team might not get in. Your team shouldn't be in either. Don't say bad things about my team.
Dan Bernstein
Rare.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
It's not just picking winners. There's the prop board, loaded up player points, team totals, futures tournament odds. There's value everywhere. If you're paying attention, maybe you want to go in and bet that Max Crosby is going to be traded to the Bears just because you can. I don't know. It doesn't even look like a value bet right now. But that's just me. You don't have to listen to me. Maybe think Bernstein drunk. Everything he says, everything you go against, okay? One account, one wallet. Bet the spread, live. Bet the second half. Hit the casino between games. Everything's in one place at MyBookie AG. The code DBU, and then your first bet is covered up to 500 bucks. What that means is if it doesn't hit, you have a bet back, bonus token. And with that token, you can then run everything back. So don't just watch the madness build. Go to MyBookie AG, use the code DBU and get that bet back. Bonus token. Up to 500 bucks. Register deposit. And then you're rocking and rolling and making it pay. With my bookie. That is dbu. And it's been brought to you in partnership with my bookie,
Dan Bernstein
Dan Bernstein. Unfiltered.
Co-host (possibly Maddie or a sports analyst)
Unfiltered on three. One, two. Sports.
Dan Bernstein Unfiltered – “Will Tyler Linderbaum Cost Too Much for Chicago Bears?”
Podcast: Dan Bernstein Unfiltered
Host: 312 Sports (Dan Bernstein with Matt Abbatacola)
Date: March 5, 2026
This episode centers on the financial and strategic implications of the Chicago Bears potentially pursuing center Tyler Linderbaum in free agency, against the backdrop of Drew Dahlman’s imminent retirement. Dan Bernstein and co-host Matt Abbatacola blend analysis of contract trends and team-building philosophy with explorations into sports betting markets, MLB’s new strike zone challenge rules, and classic on-brand banter about basketball aesthetics, roster construction, and even military aviation mishaps.
Delayed Announcement:
The show opens with speculation about the lack of an official Bears announcement regarding Drew Dahlman’s retirement. The hosts discuss protocol and note it could be a matter of administrative processing (contract, cap, and legal issues) or player/team preference.
Player Agency and Team Courtesy:
The hosts debate whether players often have a say in how and when a retirement is announced, with professional courtesy extended by teams.
Expert Projections:
The conversation pivots to CBS Sports’ Joel Corry’s robust contract projection for Linderbaum:
Market Context:
Corry predicts Linderbaum will set a new high-water mark for NFL centers, surpassing Creed Humphrey’s $18M/year deal with the Chiefs.
Bears’ Cap Philosophy:
Dan and Matt express skepticism that the Bears will go as high as $20-24M/year for a center, especially given a looming payday for quarterback Caleb Williams and the broader team-building implications.
Notable Quote:
Team Building Strategy:
Online Speculation:
The hosts discuss why the Bears are suddenly betting favorites to acquire Raiders star Max Crosby, chalking it up to a combination of online rumor-mongering, fan/media wishcasting, and the embryonic nature of prediction markets.
Prediction Markets Skepticism:
Challenge Strategy Deep Dive:
Bernstein goes through a detailed breakdown of Joe Sheehan’s analysis of MLB’s strike zone challenge system, including win rates, player/manger usage, and strategic recommendations.
Notable Quotes:
Application to Cubs:
The hosts urge that the Cubs' brain trust (Craig Counsell, Carter Hawkins) should develop and disclose concrete policies for challenge usage, as it could be pivotal in high-leverage playoff moments.
Shea Gilgeous-Alexander’s Free Throw Game:
The hosts argue that drawing fouls (and thus, free throws) is a legitimate offensive skill—citing SGA’s league-leading numbers and comparing historical greats.
Coach’s Perspective:
Quotes Billy Donovan on teaching or not teaching this “acting” skill.
The Bears’ pursuit of Tyler Linderbaum confronts the realities of NFL positional value and the modern cap era: Would adding the league’s best center be worth a market-shattering contract? Bernstein and Abbatacola provide a candid, multi-angle discussion, emphasizing the importance of homegrown talent, proportionate spending, and organizational self-awareness. From there, the episode dips into the shifting world of athletic markets—on the field, in Vegas, and on baseball diamonds—always returning to the question at the heart of smart sports fandom: “Is the cost worth it, and who decides anyway?”