Professor Ali Ansari (58:21)
Absolutely a friction between the two. And what you find actually is a lot of Iranian thinkers will tend to aspire to and adapt and adopt Western ideas. Now Western ideas can be Western liberal ideas or they can be Western Marxist ideas. I mean, you know, the whole range, the whole gamut, what they have less truck for really is Western policy. Western policy and politics and the pragmatism of politics often contradicts the high ideals. But that's a sort of a standard narrative of US or British politics around the world. In some ways. You know, there is this sort of essence that, you know, there's a lot of synergy, there's a lot of appeal. And there was a, quite a, an interesting case of a Iranian left wing thinker who basically, you know, if you think about it, his encounter with Britain is either the oil company or the embassy. I mean there's a very limited. Right. He then travels, he's given a visa and he goes off to Manchester for some reason, but Manchester in the 1940s. And he visits, you know, working men's clubs and he comes away and actually the report he writes from his visit is very striking. He sort of said, I never realized, you know, in a sense that actually ordinary people in this country are actually arguing for the same things we're arguing for. You know, I mean, he's suddenly gelled. And so you see that at all sort of different levels. And I think it goes back to this 19th century absorption of these ideas. They saw these ideas as much more attractive. They really were taken by, for want of a better word, the Whig narrative of history. I mean that's. It was about progress. You know, it was about. They weren't really taken in by the Soviet model. The Soviet model didn't give them that, you know, but the angry American model did. But they were constantly frustrated by the fact that they think that why don't you live up to the ideals, you know, why don't you. And I think that's, and, and that, that failure, that gap in a sense is something that the Soviets and the Russians and over were able to exploit. Which is, which is what happened what, what the White Revolution was in a sense was an attempt to try and, to try and ma. You know what, the Shah had this idea and it was, you know, flawed idea, obviously, but the idea was, I'm going to push through these ideas of a welfare state, a massive welfare system, a proper economic development. The Americans were very keen, obviously on economic as opposed to political development, interesting enough, partly because their own inheritance, but they pushed this sort of stuff through. And he said, but we're going to marry it to very keen sense of political ideas that are Persian. And of course, his idea of that was monarchy. You see what I mean? He said, monarchy is the way. We don't want all this democracy stuff now because of the economic growth. He sort of fed this idea and he started to believe it. Of course, many people weren't really that keen on it, you know, because they said, what happened to constitutional monarchy? You know, what happened to this 1906. Now, in 1973, you get a very pivotal moment for me, the apogee of the shah's power of 73. And why? Because that's when he's absolutely crucial in the exponential increase in the price of oil. So there's yon Kapur war, the Arab boycott of the West. The oil price goes up from something like, I think $1 a barrel to about $3. I don't know, 14, whatever. Major shock, Western sort of reeling and pain, whatever Shah doesn't get involved in that, interestingly, says quite. He says oil should not be used as a weapon. He says, very sort of high and mighty. By December, he goes, he gives a very famous press conference in the palace. And he says, right, I've decided it's dishonest and not fair that the price of a barrel of oil should, should be cheaper than the price of a barrel of Perrier water. So he says, so I'm going to increase the price. And he increases the price overnight from $3. So in a barrel to 11. This makes a bit of a mess, what it does, of course, for Iran. And this is the interesting thing, and I've talked to people about this, people who were actually in the plan and budget organization. The amount of investment, oil investment going into the Iranian economy between in the fourth development plan was $7 billion. So they had $7 billion of, of oil revenue to inject into the economy to increase infrastructure and so on. They had planned in the fifth development plan to start in 1974, to inject $21 billion. So threefold increase. The Shah with his price rise said, scrap that plan, $70 billion. Now think about it, 10 times the amount of extra capital, liquidity. What happens when the economy can't absorb it? Inflation, corruption, and that's basically the story of the 1970s. So Iran becomes the place to be. It's. It's just, you know, you go back, if you look on YouTube, you find some fantastic adverts from the period, you know, all these airlines flying to Iran. And Iran is basically a. The sort of destination of choice. But there are serious problems, and the problem is the economy begins to overheat and the Shah doesn't democratize. So what he does is he takes all this and he says, because I'm just the most successful king ever, you know, I am the new Cyrus the Great and I'm doing very well. I've given more welfare, I've given more material benefits to my people than anyone else, which, to be honest, in some ways was probably true, actually. But the fact is, if you're going to educate your public, and there were hundreds and thousands of young Iranians going through university in Iran abroad, many of them on scholarships, full scholarships, I mean, halcyon days, you know, full scholarships. Of course, what they want are jobs. And what they want is to get involved in politics. They want to share in the political process. And the Shah said, no, no, no, no, you know, you don't get involved. So I think these created really, really critical tensions which effectively unraveled in 1978 and 1978. A whole coalition of sort of opposition to the Shah builds up ahead of steam. Revolutions are never predictable. It could have happened earlier, it could have happened later. It may never happen to at all. But what happens is coalition of left, the religious sort of right in a sense, plus secular nationalists. The secular nationalists from 1906, who are now, frankly, just a fraction of their, you know, their old self. They're not really numerous, but they've seen as sort of the intellectual powers. On the one side, Khomeini. Ayatollah Khomeini had been sent into exile during the period of the White Revolution, comes back as leader of the sort of religious sort of right, if you put it that way, but basically as the symbolic leader of the entire revolution. Then there's a whole left, massive, massive amounts of people on what we might call the Islamic left or the secular left as well. They all push really to force the Shah at once to sort of reform, but really for the overthrow of the monarchy. I mean, that's basically what happens. And ultimately the reason why, in an interesting way, the Shah falls is because he is so shocked, I mean, honestly, so shocked by the fact that the people don't love him that he basically fails to act. He Stalls, I mean, the whole machinery of government stalls. And in 1978, and as one person put very rightly, he said, there's only one thing worse than being a dictator, and that is to pretend to be a dictator. One of the reasons is because he didn't actually like bloodshed. He wasn't keen on it. It's quite interesting when you look at it, if you compare it with Assad today and the Shah that then the Shah to his eternal credit in some ways wasn't interested in shooting. You know, he actually said I, you cannot build a throne on, on the blood of your people. And people would say, well, you know, that's very idealistic, your majesty, but I think we need to deal with the problem. You know, I mean, the point was by 1978, really it was too late. There was such a swelling of opposition to him, so that by January he goes on holiday, which is one of those lovely metaphors for autocrats going off. And off he goes. Well, there is an interesting thing about that, you know, and I mean one of the things about, about when you look at the monarchy in that sense, it's, it's absolutely right that there was this sort of sense that being a monarch put certain restrictions on you, that you were bound by certain moral codes, whereas the republic, you know, it's much more so. I mean, if you actually look at the French revolution itself, you know, in terms of what it was doing at the time, it has much more room for maneuver because the revolution is itself so important, so massive, such a historic event that you can take sort of historic action. Exactly what you see in the revolution in Iran, it's itself so the amount of blood, you know, people talk about the, the casualties and the lead up the revolution. We now have the figures of the people who were killed in the run up to the revolution. And it comes to in total 3,183, I think the figure is, and that is from 1963 to the date the Shah left. And the vast majority, obviously about 2000 in the year 1978-79, with the vast majority in Tehran, it wasn't really along. Now think about that. In comparison with the number of casualties that occurred after the Shah left, sort of unifying figure for the revolutionary movement goes. And left and right really go at it. They pile into a sort of civil war and you get mass executions. I mean you, you get a lot of bloodshed. To be fair to the Iranian revolution, it's not as bloody as the French or the Russian revolutions. The difference is it's on television, though, so everyone sort of watches it. And one of the critical factors in being on television is when they seize the American empire embassy on November 4, 1979, it becomes a global event. And as I say to people, you know, the Islamic revolution in Iran was the first revolution, in a sense, to be televised. And it obviously magnifies the effect of it. And it was a traumatic event for many, many people. It overturned sort of established order, but in a curious way as well, my arguments, it didn't actually remove the state. The. The Pahlavi state, as built by Reza Shah, is still there there. What they did is they replaced all the personnel and sort of developed it in different ways. But if you look at it, you have this new republic based on the French Fifth Republic, but on top of that, you then have this. This religious structure known as the Guardianship of the Jurist, which is a supreme leader. But that's what gives the game away, really, doesn't it? So it's the supreme leader, so you have a president, prime minister, you've got your judiciary, your parliament, whatever. And then on top of that, they added this layer of the supreme leader. And ultimately this Islamic supreme leader leader had ultimate authority over everything. So, you know, when people say it was the turban replaced the crown, in a way, it did. But the first eight years of that revolution were devoted to war. So the war with Iraq took up a huge amount of time. It was a very bloody conflict. They estimate188 or maybe 200, 000 Iranians died. That's in eight years. But it was the first time the Iranians were involved in what, you know, we might call a total war. I mean, the cities were involved. So, you know, and again, it's one of the founding myths of the Islamic revolution and the Islamic Republic. And so that sort of goes, you know, that goes through to 1988. What it does mean is that the political debate never gets settled. Khomeini is in charge, you know, Ayatollah Khomeini, he's very charismatic. He keeps things together. The war continues, the war ends. A year later, Khomeini dies. Not before sending a fatwa against Salman Rushdie, of course, just to keep things on a bit of a tenterhooks. And. And the real story of the Islamic public and the Islamic revolution from that time onwards is this contest between the republic on one side and the Islamic elements on the other side. And in my view, the high tide of the republican element was between 1997 and 2005, when Khatami was president. And since that time, we've really, unfortunately, I regret to say, have been slipping and sliding into this fight. Far more autocratic, revolutionary Islamic system, which, you know, I've written in places, has really returned the country, I'm sorry to say, to a sort of autocracy that the 19th century rajas would have been more familiar with, because the supreme leader has a sort of absolute authority that is divinely ordained. And whereas previous monarchs may have reigned by divine right, they never claim to be actually, in a sense, you know, the representative of. They might be legitimized by divine authority, but they didn't claim to exercise divine power. You know, I mean, that's the difference. And I think what you're seeing in Iran today is unfortunately the, the democratic elements that were fought for in the revolution being quashed under the weight of this revolutionary Islamist narrative, aided and abetted. I have to say, although I want to be very clear on this, I think the west in many ways has mishandled its relationships with Iran. I mean, plus sachange. But I think the central cause of this is internal, not external.