Podcast Summary: "Is Society About to Collapse?"

Podcast: Dan Snow's History Hit
Host: Dan Snow
Guest: Dr. Luke Kemp
Date: September 2, 2025

Overview

In this thought-provoking episode, historian Dan Snow interviews Dr. Luke Kemp, research associate at Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and author of "Goliath’s Curse." The central theme is the historical collapse of societies: why some civilizations fall, what truly brings about collapse, and whether our current society might be on the same path. Dr. Kemp challenges the traditional narrative that hierarchies and civilizations are inherently superior, delving into new research on inequality, human psychology, environmental factors, and the '1% view' of history.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Defining Civilizational Collapse

Timestamps: 03:50 – 05:59

• Collapse isn’t inevitable: Not every civilization collapses; many transform instead.
• What is collapse?

  "When all of your different systems of power fall apart quickly in an enduring fashion together, we call that a societal collapse. It's rarer, but it has happened quite a few times throughout human history." — Dr. Luke Kemp (04:22)

• Examples: Aztec (Triple Alliance), Western Roman Empire, Classical Lowland Maya, Cahokia.

2. Root Causes: The Poison Pills in Civilization

Timestamps: 05:59 – 10:56

• The "Goliath" metaphor: Civilization is rebranded as "Goliath"—big dominance hierarchies.
• Lack of an objective definition:

  "Civilization has always been a term of propaganda." — Dr. Luke Kemp (06:32)

• Inequality as a key driver: Historically, rising inequality precedes collapse.
  • Linked to corruption, political instability, and societies becoming "top-heavy" with competing elites.
  • Environmental shocks alone don’t explain collapse; societal vulnerability from inequality is central.

3. Hierarchy vs. Egalitarianism

Timestamps: 10:56 – 14:53

• Are hierarchies necessary? No; human societies evolved to cooperate on a large scale without them.
• Examples of flat societies:
  • Indus Valley Civilization (Harappan): Large, sophisticated cities with no evidence of elite classes or rulers.
  • Teotihuacan: Started hierarchical but moved to a more egalitarian, communal structure.
  • Wikipedia vs. Britannica: Modern evidence of large, effective, non-hierarchical organization.
• Monuments and irrigation pre-date elites: Early grand projects often done before hierarchical states emerged.

4. The Environmental & Psychological Roots of Hierarchy

Timestamps: 15:29 – 24:00

• Environmental factors after the Ice Age:
  • Lootable resources: Societies based on easily stored and taxed crops (like wheat) were more prone to hierarchy.
  • Monopolizable weapons: Introduction of bronze weaponry fostered states.
  • "Caged land": Geography that restricts movement facilitated control and subjugation.
• Human health was often better post-collapse:

  "After the fall of the Western Empire... you tend to see skeletons actually get taller with less bone lesions and less dental caries." — Dr. Luke Kemp (19:40)

  • Collapse sometimes led to improved living conditions for most people, contrary to the narratives left by elites.

5. History Written by the Elite: The "1% View"

Timestamps: 26:21 – 32:33

• Historical perspective is skewed: Our knowledge comes mostly from the elite, whose lifestyles and losses dominate records.
• Lamentation literature reveals bias: Ancient texts often lament the loss of hierarchy, not the actual suffering of common people.
  • Example: The Admonitions of Ipuwer focuses on social inversion as catastrophe, not on material hardship.
• Public works and art glorify the elite: The true daily life of the majority (biodegradable, unnoticed by history) is almost invisible.

6. What About the Benefits of Hierarchy?

Timestamps: 31:05 – 32:33

• Progress for whom?:
  • Technological advances rarely improved real wages or life expectancy until the benefits were shared (e.g., post-WWII welfare states).

  • "It's not just simply technology that happens. It's when you start to have the fruits of technology widely shared and dispersed... that you start to see human height increasing, you start to see all these vast improvements in human health." — Dr. Luke Kemp (34:13)

7. Democracy, Citizen Assemblies, and Future Resilience

Timestamps: 32:33 – 43:09

• More democracy than elections: Call for citizen assemblies—random selection of informed citizens making decisions together yields better, more equitable policy outcomes.

  > "The beauty of democratizing things, of using things like citizen assemblies and juries, is it kind of mitigates all of those [negative traits associated with power and hierarchy]." — Dr. Luke Kemp (41:28)
  

• Democracy undone by inequality: As economic power grows, it subverts democracy (media ownership, lobbying).

8. Human Psychology and the Appeal of Authoritarianism

Timestamps: 38:39 – 42:39

• The dark side of status: Traits like narcissism and psychopathy ("dark triad") are overrepresented among dominant elites.
• Authoritarian impulse is situational: Under threat, populations crave strongmen and accept hierarchies—a pattern manipulated throughout history.

Notable Quotes

• "I think the problem is... it's very difficult to look [civilization] in the eyes and actually acknowledge what changed roughly 5,000 years ago... That's the emergence of big dominance hierarchies." — Dr. Luke Kemp (06:49)

• "Most of history has actually been the wood age, but again, wood is biodegradable." — Dr. Luke Kemp (27:18)

• "Collapse often had numerous benefits. People often got taller afterwards. You see that not just the case of Rome, but also in the case of the late Bronze age collapse." — Dr. Luke Kemp (23:48)

• "The story for a long period of time was that once you had a big surplus enabled by agriculture, you de facto need to have elites to once again organize everyone. Again, I don't think that's the case." — Dr. Luke Kemp (16:17)

• "If you want to have all the good things of the modern world... I think one of the best ways forward here is just simply putting our production under democratic control." — Dr. Luke Kemp (35:36)

• "Until we level each form of power, I don't think we can have true democracy." — Dr. Luke Kemp (45:22)

Memorable Moments & Anecdotes

• Admonitions of Ipuwer: Poetry highlights elite horror at lost hierarchy, not universal suffering (27:05).
• Human height as proxy for prosperity: After Roman collapse and other societal falls, height—and thus health—improved, debunking golden age myths (19:40, 32:33).
• Somalia after state collapse: Quality of life indicators improved after Barre regime fell, challenging assumptions about "order" (21:12).
• Nuclear weapon anecdote: Had ordinary people decided, the atomic bomb might not have been detonated; citizen assemblies might lead to safer choices (36:25).

Takeaways

• Civilizational collapse is not inevitable, but inequality, concentrated power, and rigid hierarchies are recurrent culprits.
• Much of what we “know” about collapse comes from the elite, who naturally mourn their own loss of privilege.
• Human societies can be—and have been—large, stable, and egalitarian.
• Genuine progress (in health and living standards) arises not from hierarchy or technology alone, but from widespread, democratic sharing of resources and power.
• Modern threats (climate, nuclear war, autocracy) should be met not with nostalgia for strongmen or hierarchies, but with inclusive, citizen-driven decision-making structures.

Significant Timestamps

• 03:50 — Defining collapse
• 06:32 — The propaganda of "civilization"
• 11:17 — Examples of egalitarian organization
• 15:29 — Environmental triggers for hierarchy
• 19:40 — Health outcomes after collapse
• 27:18 — The "wood age" and elite skew in history
• 32:33 — Measuring progress, not just through technology
• 36:25 — The citizen jury & the atomic bomb
• 41:28 — Human psychology: status and authoritarianism
• 45:22 — Power and democracy

In Summary:
Dr. Luke Kemp makes a compelling case that civilizations are more fragile than we think, primarily because of inequality and hierarchy. Our dominant narratives are the product of elites, not the collective experience. By thinking more inclusively—through citizen assemblies and democratizing all forms of power—we can avoid repeating the mistakes of history and build a more resilient society.