Episode Overview

Podcast: De 7
Host: Bert Rymen
Guest: Carsten Brzeski (ING-hoofdeconoom)
Date: December 15, 2025
Episode Title: Weekvooruitblik met ING-hoofdeconoom Carsten Brzeski:
Main Theme:
This episode focuses on the seven essential news points for the upcoming week—highlighting macroeconomic data, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and particularly the increasing pressure from Germany and the EU on Belgium over Russian funds held at Euroclear. The host, Bert Rymen, is joined by ING's chief economist, Carsten Brzeski, for analysis and commentary.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ukraine Conflict & Diplomatic Pressure

• Ukraine remains at the forefront: The ongoing war and peace efforts remain central to European politics.
  • “De spanning rond het vrijgeven van de Russische miljarden bij Euroclear loopt op, met een verhoogde diplomatieke druk.”
    (Pressure is mounting around the release of Russian billions at Euroclear, with increased diplomatic tension.)
• Euroclear & Russian funds:
  • Germany and the EU plan to increase pressure on Belgium regarding the fate of Russian assets frozen at Euroclear.
  • These funds are seen as potentially crucial in financing Ukraine's defense and reconstruction efforts.
    • [00:20] “De bal ligt deze week echt bij België. Duitsland en de EU zullen de druk opvoeren.” (This week, the ball is truly in Belgium's court. Germany and the EU will escalate the pressure.)

2. Meetings Shaping Ukraine Strategy

• Key diplomatic gatherings over the weekend:
  • President Zelensky met in Berlin with US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, highlighting ongoing international support efforts.
    • [00:38] “Zelensky heeft dit weekend samengezeten met de Amerikaanse speciale gezanten – het blijft een intens diplomatiek spel.”
      (Zelensky sat down with American special envoys this weekend—it remains an intense diplomatic game.)

3. European and US Economic Data

• Central Bank Announcements:
  • The European Central Bank's Thursday meeting, following the September session, is highly anticipated for signals on monetary policy changes.
  • The US Federal Reserve's latest move is also under scrutiny, especially in light of recent inflation numbers.
    • [01:05] “Biden en de inflatie—dat wordt een heet verkiezingsthema.”
      (Biden and inflation—that will be a hot election topic.)

4. Labor Market Developments

• Job growth stats:
  • After solid job gains in September, 120,000 new jobs were added in October in the US, signaling robust but possibly cooling employment trends.

5. German Economic Sentiment

• IFO Institute Business Confidence Index:
  • The latest figures suggest continued skepticism about a near-term rebound; business sentiment remains subdued.
    • [01:20] “Het vertrouwen is broos – niemand verwacht echt een doorbraak.”
      (Confidence is fragile—no one expects a real breakthrough.)

6. AI & Tech Market Momentum

• Artificial Intelligence boom:
  • Infrastructure, investment, and hype around AI remain a dominant market theme, with analysts divided whether we’re in a bubble.
  • Key US tech stocks (Nvidia, Oracle, Micron) exemplify the ‘sky is the limit’ sentiment, though warnings of a potential ‘AI bubble’ loom.
    • [01:38] “Iedere week is er weer een symbolische stijging voor AI. De vraag is: hoe lang kan dat doorgaan?”
      (Every week there's another symbolic surge for AI. The question is: how long can this continue?)

7. German Economy: Hoping for Stability

• Mixed signals from Germany:
  • The German economy, a key engine for the Eurozone, is still searching for a clear path out of its slowdown. There is cautious hope for stabilization over the winter season.
    • [02:05] “Iedereen hoopt op een winterstop – een moment van ademhalen voor de Duitse economie.”
      (Everyone's hoping for a winter break—a breather for the German economy.)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [00:20] Carsten Brzeski: “De bal ligt deze week echt bij België. Duitsland en de EU zullen de druk opvoeren.”
• [00:38] Bert Rymen: “Zelensky heeft dit weekend samengezeten met de Amerikaanse speciale gezanten – het blijft een intens diplomatiek spel.”
• [01:05] Brzeski: “Biden en de inflatie—dat wordt een heet verkiezingsthema.”
• [01:20] Brzeski: “Het vertrouwen is broos – niemand verwacht echt een doorbraak.”
• [01:38] Rymen: “Iedere week is er weer een symbolische stijging voor AI. De vraag is: hoe lang kan dat doorgaan?”
• [02:05] Brzeski: “Iedereen hoopt op een winterstop – een moment van ademhalen voor de Duitse economie.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:11] — Episode opens, macroeconomic and geopolitical overview
• [00:20] — European pressure on Belgium over Russian funds at Euroclear
• [00:38] — Ukraine diplomatic gatherings, US involvement
• [01:05] — US labor and inflation data, electoral implications
• [01:20] — German IFO business confidence, economic skepticism
• [01:38] — AI market momentum, bubble concerns
• [02:05] — German economic hopes for the winter

Tone & Language

The episode maintains a concise, businesslike tone with a sharp focus on the intersection of economics, politics, and global markets. Quotations blend analytical seriousness with a sense of immediate urgency, reflecting the week’s pivotal developments.

Bottom Line:
This episode delivers a fast-paced yet detailed rundown of the key economic and geopolitical issues facing Belgium and Europe, with a special spotlight on the high diplomatic stakes surrounding Russian funds at Euroclear and broader themes like inflation, AI hype, and the ongoing search for economic stability in Germany. A must-listen for anyone needing to stay ahead on European affairs this week.