“A demand for unconditional surrender”

Summary

Podcast Summary – Deadline: White House

Episode: “A demand for unconditional surrender”

Host: Nicolle Wallace (joined by panelists Tommy Vietor, Dr. Robert Pape, Sarah Longwell)
Date: March 6, 2026

Main Theme / Purpose

This episode dives deep into President Donald Trump's escalatory demands toward Iran – in particular, his public insistence on Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and regime change, reminiscent of World War II language. The discussion explores the strategic, historical, and political ramifications of this shift, the widening war in the Middle East, Russia’s involvement, the lack of clear U.S. goals or strategy, the implications for American national security, and the domestic political fallout already emerging, especially in terms of the economy and voter sentiment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Demand for Iran’s “Unconditional Surrender”

• [00:42] Host introduces the breaking news: President Trump has publicly demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender”—framing it as a non-negotiable, reminiscent of FDR’s language in WWII.
• Trump details: After surrender and the selection of a “great and acceptable leader,” the U.S. will work with allies to “bring Iran back from the brink of destruction,” suggesting a goal of full regime change.
• Historical context: As Dr. Pape clarifies, regime change via air power alone has never succeeded in over a century of military history. Trump’s rhetoric and goals, therefore, defy historical precedent.

“President Trump is up against the weight of history here ... This has never worked in over 100 years.”
— Dr. Robert Pape [01:17]

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2. The Myth of Decisive Air Power in Regime Change

• [05:35] Dr. Robert Pape explains why air power alone fails to achieve regime change, even with modern precision weaponry.
• Killing a leader often hardens regimes (“martyr effect”), potentially leading to even more extreme successors.
• Dr. Pape cites Chechnya as a cautionary example: after Russian forces killed the Chechen leader via an airstrike, the successor, Basayev, intensified insurgency.
• Comparisons to unconditional surrender in WWII highlight that such absolutist demands may close off possible settlements and escalate conflicts uncontrollably.

“When you kill the leader ... you replace the dead leader, make that person a martyr, and replace them with a more aggressive [one].”
— Dr. Robert Pape [05:35]

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3. External Influence and Regime Messaging Failures

• [08:19] The panel challenges whether external media campaigns—like Trump’s social posts—can positively influence internal politics in adversarial nations. The consensus: Such moves generally backfire and entrench opposition.
• Foreign imposition or visibility in “picking” leadership almost never shifts local political landscapes favorably; instead, it creates “Brutus problems”—internal actors see cooperation with the U.S. as fatal.

“It is often moved it in the negative direction ... infusing the idea of the foreign military power now taking over the political control and all that that means.”
— Dr. Robert Pape [08:19]

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4. Communication and Strategy Shortfalls

• [10:11] Tommy Vietor points out the Trump administration’s extraordinary failures in articulating strategy, mission, or endgame to the American public.

“The communications failures around this war have been extraordinary ... one day we're talking about regime change ... then you’ll have a Pentagon briefing ... where they talk about ... just taking out their ICBMs.”
— Tommy Vietor [10:43]

• Contradictory goals and lack of clear messaging leave the nation and military “wondering what comes next.”
• Rumors of troop mobilizations (82nd Airborne) without explanation indicate further escalation and lack of planning.

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5. Russia’s Involvement and Escalation Risks

• [12:33] Reporting reveals Russia is actively sharing targeting intelligence with Iran, marking a dramatic escalation and deepening of the conflict.
• The panel notes this blurs lines of U.S.—Russia confrontation and fundamentally alters risk calculations in the region.

“As the President, United States, this should be totally unacceptable.”
— Tommy Vietor [13:56]

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6. Political Betrayal and “America First” Ideology

• [15:52] Sarah Longwell highlights how Trump’s actions (war, economic turmoil) betray the MAGA/“America First” doctrine that won him his support base.
• Public opinion is lagging but shifting, especially as real-world consequences—deaths, economic pain—are felt.
• Focus groups reveal many voters are only now catching up with the scale of military escalation, with some unaware the U.S. is at war.

“America first is meant to be a statement of prioritization, not just a slogan ... That's the problem. Promise that voters heard from Donald Trump.”
— Sarah Longwell [15:52]

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7. The Looming Costs: Economic Fallout and Public Perception

• [29:59] Gas prices spike, jobs decline, markets drop—economic pressures are already visible.
• Focus group audio shows swing voters who trusted Trump to increase affordability now questioning his priorities and credibility as costs rise and war deepens.

“They see it as not what they were promised he would do ... every time Trump does something that they don't see as to their advantage ... this Iran war is no different. But it's also worse ... the fatigue is already there.”
— Sarah Longwell [31:41]

• As the war’s costs become tangible, approval ratings are expected to drop further; panelists note the “window” of support is shrinking.

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8. Leadership, Process, and the Erosion of Checks

• Trump’s war decisions, according to reporting, are made “on gut” with little to no formal interagency process (“MAGA jazz ... just winging it” [26:30]), leaving grave strategic and constitutional gaps.
• Dr. Pape warns that U.S. ground deployment would recreate conditions for suicide terrorism seen during and after the Iraq War.

“This really is a problem as we go forward, because what we're doing is ... recreating the conditions that led to this massive wave of terrorism.”
— Dr. Robert Pape [23:34]

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9. Memorable Moments & Quotes

Historical Perspective – On Regime Change:

“This is yet another clear loser in history ... this really is just one step after another. We're getting into the escalation trap.”
— Dr. Robert Pape [07:16]

On Trump’s Rhetoric:

“He told a bunch of the [soccer] players how hot he thought they were. That literally happened yesterday.”
— Tommy Vietor [10:43]
(Highlighting the offhand, unserious tone of Trump during wartime communications)

On Voter Betrayal:

“That's the betrayal, that's the frustration ... this isn't what America first was supposed to be about.”
— Sarah Longwell [35:08]

On Political Vulnerability:

“But most voters, like Sarah was saying, are just going to drive to the gas station and see the price of the pump and be happy about it or not. ... I don't think [hype videos] are really effective when you're talking about life and death and service members dying in a real war.”
— Tommy Vietor [38:09]

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:42] – Breaking news: Trump's “unconditional surrender” ultimatum for Iran
• [01:17] – Dr. Pape’s warning: regime change by air power is historically a failure
• [05:35] – Pape details the limitations, dangers, and historical context of air power for regime change
• [10:43] – Tommy Vietor on communication and strategic confusion in the administration
• [12:33] – Russia’s military assistance to Iran revealed
• [15:52] – Sarah Longwell on the political betrayal of “America First”
• [23:34] – Dr. Pape on the link between U.S. military operations and terrorism at home
• [26:30] – Vietor: “MAGA jazz”—lack of policy process, decisions by gut
• [29:59] – Economic costs and swing voter focus group reactions
• [31:41] – Longwell: Voters’ sense of betrayal and the “fatigue” of Middle East wars
• [38:09] – Price at the pump as the dominant factor for average voters
• [40:23] – Longwell and the panel on Trump’s callousness toward American casualties, and Congressional dereliction

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Notable Quotes

• Dr. Robert Pape:

  • “He’s taking on the history of air power ... this strategy has never worked.” [05:35]
  • “This is one of those [100%] propositions in military history ... it is politically self-defeating.” [08:19]

• Tommy Vietor:

  • “The communications failures around this war have been extraordinary.” [10:43]
  • “They’re just kind of winging it. ... The administration is bombing a Muslim country during Ramadan ... calling it a holy war.” [26:30]

• Sarah Longwell:

  • “America first is meant to be a statement of prioritization, not just a slogan.” [15:52]
  • “They won’t give him infinite leeway ... as soon as Americans start to feel the pain ... that’s the frustration.” [35:08]

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Summary Flow

The episode contextualizes the dangerous escalation of U.S.–Iran tensions as the direct result of Trump’s maximalist demands and lack of communication or strategy. By connecting expert military analysis, real-time developments like Russia’s intervention, and voter focus group data, the conversation weaves together the war’s geopolitical consequences, the historic failures of regime change by force, the risks of domestic attack, and the unraveling of Trump’s “America First” promise as economic and human costs mount. The tone is urgent, skeptical, and openly critical of the administration’s lack of accountability and seriousness.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

• Understand the dangers of escalation in the Middle East tied to Trump’s unprecedented demands.
• Gain historical perspective on why regime change by force rarely succeeds and often backfires.
• Hear early evidence of both economic fallout (oil, jobs) and growing political vulnerability for Trump, especially among swing voters.
• Note the unanimity of concern among panelists about the administration’s lack of process, clarity, or respect for democratic checks and norms.
• Catch important, candid panel analysis—punctuated by moments of incredulity and striking historical analogy.

If you missed the episode, this summary equips you with the critical developments, expert insight, voter perspectives, and the broader stakes around one of the most pivotal moments in contemporary U.S. foreign policy and domestic politics.

Transcript

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We start with breaking news and Donald Trump's brand new demand for Iran's unconditional surrender and that widening war in the Middle East. Even as the Trump administration fails to clearly articulate exactly why we are in a war with Iran right now and fails to articulate what the goal is for the war and has either refused or failed to articulate what we can expect to happen next, fears are growing that the situation may already be out of Donald Trump's control. This warning from an expert is ricocheting around the world today. Watch.

[Dr. Robert Pape]

The problem is that once we drop those bombs and once we announce regime change is our goal and we had no other tools, we trying to do this from the air. This has never worked in over 100 years. This is not like it works sometimes or rarely works. I'm choosing my words carefully. President Trump is up against the weight of history here and it's the illusion of the smart bombs being near perfect and destroying their target. And the problem is when those bombs fall, they inject the they change politics in the target.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

So keep that in mind. Up against the weight of history hits differently when we tell you this. Today, Donald Trump said on social media that he will accept nothing short, nothing less than, quote, unconditional surrender from Iran. It's a demand President Roosevelt made of the Germans and the Japanese in World War II. Donald Trump added this quote after that and the selection of a great and acceptable leader. We and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction. In other words, full and complete regime change where we weigh in on the next leader. Remember what Dr. Robert Pape said in that clip we started with that regime change has never been accomplished. It has never been done from the air in more than 100 years. So if Iran's unconditional surrender in a scenario where we pick the next leader is actually the goal now, which was the latest explanation articulation from Trump. And it is still an if because that has changed since Saturday. But if the goal is regime change and complete surrender, what does the Trump administration have in mind as to how we achieve that? And why won't they address the country directly to explain it? Would it require boosts on the ground? Or do they have a historic never been done in 100 years plan that we don't know about? We don't know. There is brand new reporting today in the Washington Post on a sudden and potentially alarming change in plans for the Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division. Officials telling the Washington Post this quote, the army in recent days abruptly canceled a major training exercise for the headquarters element of elite paratrooper unit. It fueled speculation within the Defense Department that soldiers specializing in ground combat and a range of other missions may be sent to the Middle east as the conflict with Iran widens. Right now, all signs do point to that widening conflict. A blockbuster piece of reporting also in the Washington Post reports that Russia is quietly providing crucial aid to Iran. Three intelligence officials telling the Washington Post this quote, russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle east, the first indication that another major US Adversary is participating, even indirectly, in the war. Analysts said that the sharing of intelligence would fit the pattern of Iran's strikes against the US Forces, including command and control infrastructure, radars and temporary structures like the one in Kuwait where six service members were killed. A war in the Middle east started by Donald Trump now threatening to spiral beyond his control is where we start today. Dr. Robert Pape, University of Chicago political science professor who studies national and international security affairs, joins us. He writes the substack the Escalation Trap. Also joining us, founder of Crooked Media, co host of the podcast Pod Save America and Pod Save the World, Tommy Vitor is here. He was the NSC spokesperson under President Obama. Also joining us, publisher of the Bulwark, host of the focus group podcast, Sarah Longwell is with us as well. She just announced she has a new book coming out later this year. She's been multitasking, to say the least. How to Eat an Elephant, one voter at a time. Think of it as a playbook for everyone on how to beat the MAGA movement and reverse the country's alarming slide into authoritarianism. We're so happy to have all three of you. Dr. Pape, we were struck. We were really sort of stopped in our tracks by what you said there, Please explain.

[Dr. Robert Pape]

Well, you've got it just right. President Trump's not just taking on Iran. He's taking on the history of air power. For over 100 years, states have been trying to topple regimes with air power alone. And just think of the way Donald Trump describes it. A few bombs and we'll take out a few liters, and all of a sudden, we control an entire country. And not just the country. We get all the things that we want, all the enriched uranium, for example, maybe even their oil. So this, of course, seems very enticing. And in the smart bomb age, it's also alluring because the bombs will fall with virtually 100% success. I've taught for the US Air Force conventional targeting strategy. I'm very well aware of, of the accuracy of our precision and the professionalism of our forces. That said, this strategy, and I'm choosing my words carefully, has never worked. And what it does is it typically hardens the regime. You typically, when you kill the leader, as the Russians did, the Chechen leader Dudaev, in April 1996, you replace the dead leader, make that person a martyr, and replace them with a more aggressive. In the Russian case it was named was Baziev, and he is the one who did the suicide attack. He kicked Russian forces out of Chechnya, and then it took three years of fighting to have them come back. So this is what we are up against and what his rhetoric is now. Oh, my goodness gracious. This is yet another clear loser in history, because we know from the inside records that when we announced this unconditional surrender, what it really did in the German case is it took away almost all, not quite 100%, but almost all this energy to cut a deal with the west so that they wouldn't be conquered by the Russians. So this really is just one step after another. We're getting into the escalation trap.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Well, he also. If I could just ask you to sort of put this part of the statement in the context of history. Dr. Pape. Donald Trump posting after that, after Iran's unconditional surrender, quote, the selection of a great and acceptable leader. The Wall street journal reported 24 hours ago that in Iran there is support for Khomeini's son, who's more brutal. And it seems like if there was a plan to weigh in on who would lead Iran after the initial strikes, it would be emerging from inside Iran, not from Donald Trump's Twitter feed. Has an external public sort of media campaign ever influenced the internal politics of a country.

[Dr. Robert Pape]

It has not influenced them in the positive direction of moving the internal politics toward us. It is often moved it in the negative direction and it does so by infusing the idea of the foreign military power now taking over the political control and all that that means. And so if there was somebody who was the dove, they are now disincent, incentivized, because what's going to happen is they'll get a bullet in the back of the head by so they may. Donald Trump may say I threatened to kill you. Well, these are the horns of the dilemma now and it's a Brutus problem if you see what I mean. And so this is why it actually has never worked. We don't have many 100% propositions in military history air strategy, but this is one of those and it is a self defense feeding policy which is why and it's politically self defeating. It's not the bombs don't hit the target. I want to be clear. It's not that our men and women in arms are not the ultimate professionals, they absolutely are. It's that the task itself is about politics and that is the self contradictory nature of it. And by pouring on the fire here that it's his way or the highway over and over and he's going to micromanage. Exactly. It'll be our new Karzai, so to speak speak in Afghanistan. Well if put an army in maybe there's a chance but this is, this is not Afghanistan. This is a much bigger problem. I really think we've pitt not we've taken on way too much more than we can chew. And the danger is the escalation now is coming out of Iran sweeping into the region and I fear that over the coming weeks it will start to creep toward the homeland.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Tommy Vitor Donald Trump doesn't seem to disagree with that assessment. Donald Trump saying in an interview that things could happen here, that people could die, that we are at risk here. So in so much as that isn't in dispute, it seems all the more self defeating on the political side that Donald Trump hasn't addressed the country to articulate a mission, a goal, a timeline. What do you make of this moment?

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, the communications failures around this war have been extraordinary. I mean the last time we heard him talk I think was yesterday and it was an Iran topper as he welcomed an MLS soccer team to the White House. So he talked about Iran and dropping bombs on a country and then he told a bunch of the players how hot he thought they were. That literally happened yesterday. And as you mentioned at the top, I mean, one day we're talking about regime change. Donald Trump is saying he wants to pick the next leader of Iran. He's demanding unconditional surrender. And then you'll have a Pentagon briefing with, with Pete Hegseth and the chairman, Dan Kaine, where they talk about. No, no, no, no. This is about, you know, bombing Iranian naval assets. It's about taking out their ICBMs. It's about limiting their ability to project power outside of Iran's borders. But regardless of which source you're listening to, the. The premise of the war is built on a lie or many lies. Iran was not close to getting a nuclear weapon. We know this because Donald Trump told us that they totally obliterated their nuclear sites last June. Iran is not close to having a ballistic missile capacity that could hit the U.S. we know this because the Defense Intelligence Agency said that they are a decade away from having that capability if they choose to get it. So we're all left wondering, why are we conducting this war? And now we are seeing these reports of the 82nd Airborne mobilizing, and Trump is refusing to put a rule out putting boots on the ground, as is Hegseth. And you have to Wonder, is the 82nd Airborne going there to the Middle east to get Americans out? Is there a mission to go inside Iran? Right. I could imagine a commando raid by the US And Israel to try to take control of the highly enriched uranium that's still in the country. Is this a regime change? Operation like this is getting hairy very, very fast. And it doesn't seem like anyone has a clear handle on what comes next. Not in the White House, not in the Pentagon, not anybody.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Tommy. The Washington Post reporting that Russia is assisting Iran with targeting information about locations of U.S. troops in the Middle east is staggering. And my brain instantly replayed all of the flattery that Donald Trump has lavished on Vladimir Putin. You know, one of the most heinous things Iran has done over the last 20 years is their work in Iraq, where they are directly responsible for the death of men and women of the military. That's one of the reasons normal presidents, I guess, if they went to the country, would articulate for why we would ever consider being at war with Iran. That Russia is doing that very same thing seems like a staggering development. And I wonder if it's just the blur of the sort of pace and freneticism of the news cycle that that hasn't stopped Republicans and Democrats in Congress to at least reconsider their votes. On congressional authorization for this war.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. I mean, look, on some level, if you're Russia, you're probably thinking the United States has been providing intelligence and targeting information to the Ukrainians to take out Russian targets for a long time. So this is their response to that. On some level.

[Dr. Robert Pape]

Right.

[Tommy Vietor]

But like as the President, United States, this should be totally unacceptable. And I think I saw Caroline Levitt was interviewed earlier today, and she basically said, who cares if Russia is doing this? And I blew my mind that she would say something like that because, you know, early on it seemed like the Iranians were just firing their sort of cheap shahed drones wherever. Right. They were hitting civilian buildings, they were targeting US Military installations. They were just trying to soak chaos. With the benefit of a few days and some satellite imagery and some great reporting, we are now seeing that Iran has managed to hit multiple command and control sites for the US Military. Key infrastructure, key radars, infrastructure that's important for missile defense systems. So they're having some real success that seems to be based on very good intelligence. And if that's coming from the Russians, you would hope that Donald Trump would rethink all the things he said about Vladimir Putin. I mean, last time I checked, they still had a jumbo photo up on the wall of Trump and Putin together at the Alaska summit. So maybe. Maybe start by taking that thing down. But yes, I mean, it is. It is a pretty extraordinary development.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Sarah, I have been doing my best in your. In your absence these last five days of this. Actually six days. We were here Saturday to try to explain the political betrayal to every single person who ever voted for Donald Trump over the last three presidential elections. To have taken the country to a war in the Middle east with no clear goal, no clear mission, and refusing to rule out boots on the ground. But I am out of words. I mean, if there was one central, honest, intellectual pillar of maga, it was we will focus our interests and our needs and our dollars here at home, and we will not start new wars in the Middle East. And here we are.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I mean, look, America first is meant to be a statement of prioritization, not just a slogan. It's about saying what we are going to do is not, you know, send our money overseas. We're going to focus on people here at home taking care of them. That's the problem. Promise that voters heard from Donald Trump. Now, right now, public opinion on something like this is a little bit crazy. We've been doing focus groups since this happened. That's immediately what I do. I rush out to listen to voters and see what they know. And I'll tell you, the public is still catching up to what is happening. We did focus groups this week and there were people who didn't know we were in a war. And now some of that is because we've got a government that isn't just saying we're in a war. They're trying to pretend like this isn't a war when we're actively dropping bombs on an other country. But I think that because it's so far away, sometimes it takes a minute until oil prices start to spike, until people feel the personal consequences for everybody to get their heads around what's really happening. And Trump benefits from the fact that when he went and grabbed Maduro in Venezuela, that was a story for a bit and then it kind of went away. And the last time we bombed Iran and, you know, obliterated, according to Donald Trump, their nuclear program, that was something that was felt short lived to Americans. What will happen is if this continues to go on, right, if it, if it becomes prolonged, if there's more loss of American lives, then you will start to see the American public look up and say, what are we doing here? Because right now, public opinion, it sort of maps onto approval of Trump. Like you will see that the number of people who approve of this, the approval numbers, which are about 40%, 43%, that's Trump's approval rating. And the 50 plus that disapprove of it, well, that goes along with his disapproval rating. And so right now for the public, it's sort of coming down to do you trust Trump or not? But that will start to erode as people in America start to catch up and say, are we suddenly in a prolonged war in the Middle East? And I do want to also say there's something about the Middle east that is different for Americans than something like Venezuela, because the memory is still just so fresh. People have a very specific way that they think about us going into the Middle east and their tolerance for it is much lower than other things we might do in other parts of the globe. But I do think that when you talk about the betrayal, one of the things you also have to remember, though, is that it's, I don't want to just say it's a cult, but the people who trust Trump are going to trust Trump for a while until it starts to negatively impact him. So he's going to have this narrow window where his base will stick with him. But over time, that is going to erode, especially as a lot of the people who are more sort of the talking heads on the right, they are not 100% with him. And so they are telling their listeners about this betrayal. And so over time, I think you will see it start to shift. But right now it tends to be public opinion tends to be locked in a if I trust Trump, I'm okay with this right now. If I don't trust Trump, I'm not okay with it.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

So much more on that. You brought us some of that from actual voters. I want to play that. And to your point, you've got Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Marjorie Taylor Greene staking out territory very much consistent with MAGA and opposed to what Trump is doing. We'll talk about that as well. Everyone sticks around with us. Also ahead for us, another broken campaign promise from Donald Trump. After backing away from his declaration of no new foreign wars, he's finding that he is not making America affordable either. Donald Trump's Iran fueled economic crisis has sent gas prices soaring and employers slashing jobs. And now he's losing public support in those areas as well. We'll show you those numbers. Also ahead, the White House and the State Department today struggling to explain why they were not prepared to evacuate the thousands of Americans in the Middle east when the war started. We'll talk with one of those frustrated travelers, a retired major general from the United States army who was stranded in Dubai for days. But before we take a break, we want to show you something. We're going to go back to Chicago where former Vice President Kamala Harris is speaking at the memorial service for the Reverend Jesse Jackson honoring the late civil rights leader. Let's listen to a little bit of that.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm not into saying I told you

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

so, but we did see it coming. But what I did not predict is that we would not have Jesse Jackson with us right now to help us get through this. And this afternoon has been such a beautiful remembrance of his spirit, his life and his faith. And in a way that Reverend Al talked about it and so many others have. I do think of this afternoon as what it is doing for me to renew my faith in what is possible, fueled by the hope that Jesse Jackson so often reminded us of. I'm reminded of a passage, Try angel soft for your tushy. It's made by angels soft and strong. Budget friendly. The choice is simple. A role that feels like paradise and always at a heavenly prowess.

[Sarah Longwell]

Angel song.

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[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Pick up a pack today.

[Sarah Longwell]

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Simple.

[Tommy Vietor]

Why have I asked My electrician I found on Angie.com to bury my pet hamster. I was so moved by how carefully he buried my electrical wires. I knew I could trust him to bury my sweet nibbles after his untimely end. This is very strange, Angie.

[Dr. Robert Pape]

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[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

I learned it from my adoptive mom.

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[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

We are back with Professor Pape, Tommy and Sarah. Professor, let me come back to a point that you and Tommy were both making. This is from Time magazine's reporting about Donald Trump's public statements. Asked whether Americans should be worried about retaliatory attacks at home, Trump acknowledges the possibility, quote, I guess, but I think they're worried about that all the time. We think about it all the time. We plan for it. But yeah, you know, we expect some things. Like I said, some people will die when you go to war, some people will die, end quote. Then a window into maybe more thought than we were aware he gave the risk of terrorism and attacks from Iran on the homeland. But if that were true, it doesn't sync up with the firings at the FBI. All the agents that are trained to protect us hire among those who have been targeted most viciously with purges. I wonder what you make of any serious preparations to the homeland for what Iran is capable of doing in retaliation.

[Dr. Robert Pape]

Well, Nicole, you may not know, but my second area of specialty for decades has been suicide terrorism. I collected the first complete database of all suicide attacks around the world just after 9 11. And it predicted that if we invaded and occupied Iraq, that we would touch off the largest suicide terrorist campaign in modern times. And that prediction came true. And it was a unique prediction. Very few other terrorism experts were saying that. They were saying it would be a cakewalk. And why did I make that prediction? It's because what I discovered was that about 95% of all suicide attacks around the world, and this is true for decades, are in response to a foreign military occupation, ground forces most especially. And so if you, once you take that out of the equation, you still have Some, but again, 95% are in response to that. So that's why over time, suicide terrorism has disappeared. It's not because Islamic fundamentalists have disappeared. It's because we've changed our policy. And I spent decades working with both Democratic and Republicans on both the Hill. I mean, my goodness gracious. And we basically were able to solve that problem. Well, now what's happening is we're going in the opposite direction. And you're even reporting something about the 82nd airport. Well, that would count as. As ground force. Absolutely. And so this really is a problem as we go forward, because what we're doing is we are. We are creating, recreating the conditions that led to this massive wave of terrorism. Now, it doesn't happen on a day I can talk about a little bit about the trajectory time, but the bottom line is we are heading down a road deeper and deeper with more and more reckless ideas. And it's really stunning to me that it's not just President Trump, but apparently folks all around President Trump really have very little understanding of the strategy. They may know quite a bit about putting a bomb on a target or how to kill an individual, but in terms of the actual strategy of military power, this is really becoming quite disconcerting.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Tommy, Mark Mazzetti was here at the beginning of the week and made clear that there wasn't any sort of formal national security NSC policy process that a lot of the decisions that have been made so far have been on. I think Donald Trump has even said this publicly on his gut. When you get to this part of it, right, the initial strikes, the military's genius is on full display. But this. This part of it that requires strategy, that requires protection for the homeland, that requires a conversation with the country about whether or not there will be boots on the ground, what happens without any policy process.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, I mean, it's just like MAGA jazz. They're just kind of winging it. I mean, to Dr. Pape's point, the Trump administration is bombing a Muslim country during Ramadan. And you have Lindsey Graham out there calling it a holy war. That is the kind of thing that we would have avoided doing or thought was a bad idea after 9, 11, when there was a lot of concern about US policies and the way they might foment terrorism. So, I mean, it just. Look, there's been a lot of reporting that Donald Trump has seen, you know, the Operation Midnight Hammer mission go through and then the Venezuela operation and has decided that the US Military gives him godlike powers. And the truth is, he has gotten very lucky over time. The Venezuela mission, as we learned at the State of the Union, you know, one of the lead helicopter pilots took four bullets to the leg and somehow managed to fly through that get everyone down safely and get out safely without anyone getting hurt or getting killed. If one of those bullets goes, you know, a few inches of one direction or the other, that ends very differently. I think now President Trump has is learning the hard way that he's bitten off more than he can chew, that there's no way to conduct a regime change operation against a regime that is as ideologically driven as the Iranian regime. And so, like, what happens next, I guess is up to him. But there is no NSC process, like you said, in place to kind of vet these ideas, to talk about downside risks, to get him intelligence assessments for what could come next or how bad it could be because he just doesn't want to hear that kind of information.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

I am going to do what I promised. I'm going to play this new focus group sound. These are Biden 2020 voters, Trump 2024 voters. It's fascinating. Professor ROBERT Pape, I'm going to thank you and spare you that part of our political conversation, but we will call on you again. Tommy and Sarah, stick around after the break. We'll show you that. Sam we'll also talk about the economic damage to being at a widening war in the Middle east and the signs already that it's having an impact on affordability and on prices at the pump and elsewhere. We'll get to that. Next. Why have we asked our contractor we

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found on Angie.com to be our kid's legal guardian?

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Because he took such good care when redoing our basement that we knew we

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could trust him to care for our

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

kids, all eight of them, should something happen to us.

[Sarah Longwell]

Are you my dad now?

[Dr. Robert Pape]

No, sorry. I do basements. Connecting homeowners with skilled pros for over 30 years. Angie, the one you trust. Define the ones you trust. Find pros for all your home [e-mail]

[Tommy Vietor]

Imagine relying on a dozen different software programs to run your business, none of

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

which are connected, and each one more

[Ad Council Announcer]

expensive and more complicated than the last.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

It can be pretty stressful.

[Tommy Vietor]

Now imagine Odoo.

[Dr. Robert Pape]

Odoo has all the programs you'll ever

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need, and they're all connected on one platform.

[Tommy Vietor]

Doesn't Odoo sound amazing?

[Dr. Robert Pape]

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[Ad Council Announcer]

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[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

I learned it from my adoptive mom.

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Hold my hand. You hold my hand. Learn about adoptive a team from foster [e-mail] you can't imagine the reward brought to you by Adopt Us Kids, the U.S. department of Health and Human Services and the Ad Council.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Today, the markets continued to respond. They plummeted, with the Dow closing down more than 400 points. It's largely driven by the dramatic spike in oil prices, now more than $90 a barrel as shipments have been severely impacted by the war in Iran, as well as an alarming jobs report that hit today that showed that we lost 92,000 jobs in February. Even before that data was released, voters weighed in. Donald Trump's dismissal of their concerns has been weighing on his political standing for some time now. And now with the start of a war in Iran, the doubts voters have about him are starting to multiply. Take a listen to voters who voted, as I said before the break, for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump a year ago in 2024. I sort of feel as though he might be trying to hold out his

[Tommy Vietor]

script when it comes to he has always made jokes stating that there won't be another election. And I just feel as though maybe

[Dr. Robert Pape]

this war is also the catalyst to

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

somehow allow midterm elections to not happen because of us going into war.

[Sarah Longwell]

If you bombed them the first time and set their nuclear program back decades,

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

then why are we bombing them again? That's my first question.

[Sarah Longwell]

My second question is, if we're bombing

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

them so we can have a regime

[Sarah Longwell]

change, what's our game plan for who's going to take over now and how are we going to ensure that they're not going to be worse than the ayatollah? Because my fear is that it's going to be a repeat of what happened with Saddam.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Sarah, those are your voters. They are. These are obviously ones who've taken in a lot of information about what has happened so far. Your, your thoughts?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I mean, look, these are swing voters. And a lot of the swing voters, when you have a Biden to Trump voter, they tend to have voted for Donald Trump for one specific reason, which is that he promised he was going to lower prices and make America more affordable. That's what they heard. That's what they believed. It is a story I hear over and over and over again from voters in the focus groups. And what' interesting is that the way that these voters process anything that Trump is doing is they just ask is what he is doing making my life more affordable? Because that's what I hired him to do. And so whether it's building the ballroom, whether it is the aggressive way that they are, you know, Shooting Americans in the streets and going after immigrants in America's streets, or whether it is this war with Iran, they see it as not what they were promised he would do. And in fact, I mean, you said this at the jump, and I don't think I hit it hard enough. But it is so important to remember that one of the reasons Republican voters today are so much more isolationist than they were 15 years ago is because Donald Trump taught them to be. I mean, a big part of why he was even elected or why he was able to sort of railroad Jeb Bush and some of the other folks is because Americans were tired of these foreign wars. And Trump and so many people in his administration promised that that's not what they were gonna do. They were gonna spend their time improving the lives of the average American. And so these voters feel betrayed every time Trump does something that they don't see as to their advantage. And this Iran war is no different. But it's also worse because as you can hear from these voters, and I hear this from a lot of people in the groups across the political spectrum, is it's just so close to the wars. They felt like we just got done fighting, like the fatigue is already there. And so they'll give Trump a little bit of leeway, but they won't give him infinite leeway. I mean, this. And I gotta tell you, gas prices, they've already gone up about 30 cents a gallon. That is the kind of thing when people are driving up and down the road, they see it on the signs at their local gas station. It is the kind of psychological thing that hits people and it. And it drives up the cost of everything. And voters understand that. And so that is an enormous vulnerability. Because it's one thing to fight a war that's far away, that they can't feel the implications of. It's another thing when they start to feel the costs at home, that's when it drives down public opinion.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

I mean, what's interesting, Sarah, as you're talking, I'm looking at the Fox News polling on the economy. How would you rate the economy today? Excellent. Good. 30%? Fair? Poor? 71%? I mean, the 30% is beneath his approval rating, beneath that group that you said, basically trust Trump by more than 10 points. This is his greatest political vulnerability. And the war in Iran, its most immediate and direct consequence is the loss of six American lives. The second and most widespread consequence is higher gas prices.

[Ad Council Announcer]

This.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

And look, the fact is people dying. And, like, there will be. There will be a short term Sort of letting Trump do what they think he needs to do.

[Dr. Robert Pape]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like this is, this is why the Venezuela sort of smash and grab job on Maduro and why the initial bombing of Iran, the fact that those were over very quickly. Voters saw that, like Trump. Trump also internalized it, like Tommy was saying. And it makes him think this is all so easy. But that happens with the voters too, right? They think, well, you know, this will be short. We're just, we're doing some bombings. It's far away. The fact is, this one looks like it's gonna get away from Trump very quickly. And as soon as Americans start to feel the pain, whether it's the loss of American lives, whether it's just the days that go on. Right. It doesn't ha. It's not over really quickly or it is their gas prices. And just that Donald Trump isn't focusing on the one thing they want him to focus on, the one thing they hired him to do. That's the betrayal, that's the frustration. And that's where you hear a lot of the sort of MAGA talking head types really going hard at him, like, this isn't what America first was supposed to be about. This isn't the promise you made to us. And that is like the most central vulnerability for Trump to the extent that he, he is often seen as invulnerable. But this is the central vulnerability.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Yeah. I mean, the things that Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly and Marjorie Taylor Greene have said about him over the last six days are amazing. I'm not gonna show them to you, but they are amazing. I'm gonna show you. What Trump's been saying, though, about that really just showcases either his obliviousness to what you're articulating, Sarah, or his indifference. And we'll talk on the other side about which is worse for him politically. No one goes anywhere. We'll all be right back. I have never had more compliments on something I did. People felt it's something that had to be done.

[Tommy Vietor]

So if we have a little high

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop. Affordability is a hoax. It's a conjunct.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think affordability is the greatest kind of the ports here in the US the traffic has really slowed and now thousands of dock workers and truck drivers are worried about their jobs.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

That means we lose less money.

[Ad Council Announcer]

Right now.

[Sarah Longwell]

People are buying their holiday presidents presents.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

They're planning. Look, don't be dramatic.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, no, don't be.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Here's.

[Sarah Longwell]

Here's what I want.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Next year's what I want. I know that you said dolls, even dolls could cost a couple bucks more. Maybe they might. I don't think a beautiful baby girl needs, that's 11 years old, needs to have 30 dolls. Tommy. I want to try to not get distracted by all that's outrageous in there and focus on maybe the one truth quote. As soon as it ends, the prices will drop. I mean, ding, ding, ding, that might be the biggest problem with the lack of clarity and certainty to what he's commenced in the Middle East.

[Tommy Vietor]

And by the way, that's not necessarily true. I mean, as Sarah was saying, the price of the barrel of oil is up to $90. I think at the peak of the Ukraine war, it was up to $139 a barrel. So it could go way up. The Qataris are saying you could see $150 barrels of oil. So there's also some situations where if these oil fields need to be shut down, you can't just turn them back on. That's just not how the technology works. It could take weeks, if not months. And then you have this massive choke point in the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of the world's refined petrol transit every day. And if you know the Iranians or the Houthi rebels are firing missiles at ships there and taking them out, that is just going to cut off a lot of commerce. So Donald Trump can, can spin as much as he wants and, you know, like political freaks like us who consume a lot of political news, we will see some of that and maybe it'll influence maybe us, maybe it won't. But most voters, like Sarah was saying, are just going to drive to the gas station and see the price of the pump and be happy about it or not. So I, like, I just don't really think he can yada, yada, yada away his political problems here. Nor, I mean, I'm sure you guys have seen like the crazy, you know, edited hype videos with like movie reels cut in or like Call of Duty clips put to these videos of bombs and airstrikes. Like, I just, I don't think this stuff is really effective when you're talking about life and death and service members dying in a real war.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Sarah, let me just stipulate, obviously the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were wildly unpopular with the American people. And to your point about some of Trump's political leeway right now being this idea that voters think this is so far away, that cuts the other way when the people that most Americans view as the best among us. People that volunteer to serve their country, to protect us, start losing their lives. What is your thought to Pete Hegseth describing the six men and women who have lost their lives already in the efforts to cover those deaths and talk about who they were as a, quote, effort to make Donald Trump feel bad. The sort of the callousness that they've already displayed. And Donald Trump, repeatedly, I think he said every day since Saturday, yeah, people are going to die.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, obviously, I couldn't have a lower opinion of Donald Trump and the leadership around him. I mean, look, the way that they are waging this war demonstrates a contempt for the American people, right? Donald Trump, it was just last Tuesday he gave the State of the Union. He could have made the case to the American people then about why this was such an imminent threat, why we needed to do this. He's obviously not gone to Congress with this. Like, he is sidestepping everything that makes America America. And the way the processes by which, you know, we go to war and do something that is so significant that will cost lives and treasure of the American people? Like, you show people decency in those moments, you show people leadership in those moments. You show people that you care about America. I mean, everything you just showed from Donald Trump's waving a way of affordability, as though people not being able to, like, afford real goods, real material goods, just doesn't matter. They don't care. The way that he talks about people dying in this war with a shrug as though, yeah, that's just what happens. And here's the thing, that's true on some level, right? Of course, if you are going to be at war, lives will be lost. It's a very serious thing. But that is why you sit down in the Oval Office and you face the American people and you explain your plan. You don't go on your janky personal social media app that you own, that's a private company, as the only way to give Americans any information about the war that you are dragging them into. And so it is contempt for the American people and our Constitution and our congressional leadership from top to bottom. And it is embarrassing, actually, that Congress's response is to just roll over and let him do it. They should demand their role as a check on this. I just, it is, it is awful the way that he talks to Americans and takes for granted the serious, like, the price that people will pay for this in all different vectors.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Yeah, yeah, it's, it's sort of. You just inspired another conversation. Hopefully we can have that next week. Sarah, I'm so happy that we could announce the title of the book and I cannot wait to read it. I hope I'm among the early people who get to lay my eyes on it. Tommy Vitor, thank you for being here. We'll see you again tomorrow. This is awesome news. The premiere of Crooked on Ms. Now, a new series that highlights the very best moments of the week from Crooked Media's top podcast. You can catch Crooked right here at 9pm Eastern tomorrow after the break. Kristine Noem may have lost her job, maybe because of that disastrous congressional testimony she gave this week, but that might not be the only trouble she's in right now. We'll explain. Senate Democrats are pressing for a perjury investigation into whether freshly fired Kristi Noem lied under oath this week when she claimed that Corey Lewandowski did not approve contracts for the Department of Homeland Security. Senator Richard Blumenthal says Democrats have evidence to suggest that Corey Lewandowski had done that. And that may not have been the only time she perjured herself. Listen to what she told Senator John Kennedy at the same hearing.

[Sarah Longwell]

The president approved ahead of time. You spending $220 million running TV ads across the country in which you are featured prominently? Yes, sir. We went through the legal processes. Did it correct the president with omb? Yes.

[Host (possibly Jon Favreau or a similar political podcast host)]

Which is interesting because Trump told Reuters the next day this quote, I never knew anything about it. And not just Reuters, Trump also told NBC News, quote, I didn't know about it, end quote. And then she lost her job. So seems like Kristi Noem's very bad. Terrible. No Good week continues. We'll stay on top of it after the break. Donald Trump acknowledges that the human cost of a war with Iran could be felt right here at home as well. Quick break, daylighthouse. We'll be right back. Courage. I learned it from my adoptive mom.

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Hold my hand. You hold my hand. Learn about adopting a team from from foster [e-mail]. you can't imagine the reward brought to you by Adopt US Kids, the U Department of Health and Human Services and the Ag Council.