“A political Achilles’ heel”

Summary

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Episode Overview

Title: “A political Achilles’ heel”
Podcast: Deadline: White House
Date: February 16, 2026
Host: Alicia Menendez (in for Nicolle Wallace)
Main Theme:
The episode examines how Donald Trump’s mass deportation and aggressive immigration enforcement policies—once believed to be political strengths—have become a major vulnerability for his administration and the GOP. The discussion centers on public backlash to ICE operations, the trauma inflicted on communities, political consequences ahead of the midterms, and shifting perceptions of America on the world stage.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. ICE Raids Traumatizing Communities and Children

• Opening Story:
  The episode opens with the story of a New Jersey protest after ICE agents caused children to flee from a school bus stop ([01:04]). Surveillance footage showed children “huddled up...crying underneath the seats,” highlighting the fear and trauma induced by mass deportations at the community level ([01:18]).

• Host’s Commentary:
  Alicia Menendez reflects:

  "I watched 4th and 5th grade kids run away from our own government. I never want to see that again... That’s not the United States." ([01:04], Alex Tabitt; [01:19], Alicia Menendez paraphrased)

• Community and Law Enforcement Backlash:
  Law enforcement officials report ICE’s tactics are making communities less safe and undermining trust. Calls for cooperation and visible identification from ICE have been ignored ([04:21]-[05:32]).

2. Mass Deportation Becomes a Political Liability

• Polls & Public Sentiment:
  65% of Americans say ICE has gone too far (NPR/Marist poll). Protests have swelled, including many first-time activists ([03:40]-[05:32]).

• Andrea Flores (Senior Fellow, Forward US):
  Mass enforcement actions, especially around schools, have forced ordinary Americans to confront the policies' effects:

  “For every citizen’s outrage, I keep saying, there is a path forward… It’s going to take children running away from schools in fear and being traumatized… if that’s what it takes to move Congress to finally change the system, so be it.” ([05:32])

• Mary McCord (former acting Assistant AG, DOJ):
  Emphasizes law enforcement is being pressured into coerced partnerships with federal agents, eroding public safety and constitutional protections:

  “If they were really serious, they would try to work hand in glove… they would actually figure out who are the actual criminal worst of the worst. But they're not doing any of that.” ([07:07])

• Nicole Wallace:
  Notes law enforcement’s inability to keep the community safe points to bigger failures with the administration’s approach:

  “The fact that you now have law enforcement saying, ‘We can't keep people safe and secure because your policies don't work,’ that feels like a different part of the conversation.” ([06:34])

3. Erosion of Legal and Constitutional Norms

• ICE’s Secretive & Aggressive Tactics: Ongoing refusal by the Trump administration to require visible identification for ICE agents or warrants for entering homes is highlighted as both dangerous and unconstitutional.

  • Andrea Flores:

    “We’ve never had a secret mass police force. And he’s also pushing back on warrant issues… Do you think your law enforcement should be able to be identified? They’ll say yes. Do you think you should have a warrant to go into someone’s private home? So simple… Yet the White House is saying no.” ([10:15])

  • Mary McCord:

    “There is absolutely zero authority…for the idea that you can go into somebody’s home without a warrant.” ([11:18])

• Basil Smichel (Panelist):
  Connects ICE’s actions to broader threats to the rule of law:

  “It’s not about immigration… If you decide to look at ICE…not as a law enforcement agency but as a squad that’s specifically given authority by this president to do his bidding, then you see it through a whole different lens…it’s all about breaking the norms to do the President’s bidding.” ([12:08])

4. Political Fallout for Republicans

• Texas as a Bellwether:
  Trump's immigration crackdown is alienating Hispanic voters and threatening previously secure Republican districts ([19:38]-[20:44]).

  • Andrea Flores:

    “Once you start looking at what mass deportations were always going to entail, the easiest people to deport right now are people who’ve been here the longest…what a failure for the Latino community.” ([20:44])

  • Mary McCord:
    Points to lack of foresight and courts pushing back on Trump policies:

    “Zero foresight on any of this…when you’re making decisions to do things like arrest people without warrants…and under a new interpretation…they did not foresee the downstream effects.” ([22:22])

  • Nicole Wallace:
    Describes how GOP officials like Rep. Monica De La Cruz are forced into awkward balancing acts on immigration, risking base backlash and broader electoral rejection ([23:50]).

  • Basil Smichel:
    Urges Democrats to provide a clear alternative, notes performative politics and human costs:

    “There’s a point at which I think people have said enough is enough. Democrats just need to at this point give them a clear alternative.” ([24:57])

  • Andrea Flores:

    “How many decades are we going to go by hoping we could launch a state fix? We can’t. You have to have Congress act on this…The lack of leadership right now and vision is such an opportunity.” ([27:06])

5. The Human Toll of Policy

• Story of Ofelia Torres:
  The panel discusses the heartbreaking case of a cancer-stricken teen separated from her detained father:

  “What are we doing?...How do you have a child who should be focused on her own healing, having to be her father’s protector?...The cruelty is the point...there is something in the face of this child and the story of this child that reminds us that this is a choice.” ([16:35], Nicole Wallace)

6. America’s Global Image and the World Stage

• Munich Security Conference Recap:
  Competing visions of America are on display. Secretary of State Marco Rubio promotes harsh, nationalist policies; Democrats and US state governors reassure allies that Trumpism is not forever ([29:39]-[30:49]).

  • Governor Gavin Newsom:

    “Donald Trump is temporary. He’ll be gone in three years. California is a stable and reliable partner in this space.” ([30:35])

  • Michael McFaul (former ambassador):

    “They are playing to unite the illiberal world, the populist nationalists of the world. Whereas most people at the Munich Security Conference want a liberal international order…There was a big divide.” ([31:08])

• International Fallout:
  Michael Crowley notes European diplomats see even modest reassurance from Rubio as a relief, but trust in the US is eroding and Europe is moving toward greater self-sufficiency ([32:41]; [36:36]).

7. High-Profile Abduction Case

• Nancy Guthrie Disappearance (Tucson, AZ):
  The case of Savannah Guthrie’s missing mother is recapped, with updates on DNA evidence and investigation efforts ([39:13]-[44:37]). The episode reiterates that the Guthrie family has been cleared as suspects, underlining the impact of misinformation.

8. Judicial Pushback on Historical Whitewashing

• Federal Judge Blocks Administration's Effort to Remove Exhibit
  A judge stops the Trump administration from erasing the legacy of enslaved people at the President’s House in Philadelphia, condemning the attempt as “modern ignorance is strength” ([44:37]-[46:09]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

The Trauma of ICE Raids

• Alex Tabitt (School Official):

  “I never want to see a child ever run away from our own government ever again.” ([01:18])

• A school bus monitor:

  “Once they were actually on the bus, they were just huddled up...crying underneath the seats.” ([03:09], paraphrased from story)

On Law Enforcement’s Frustration

• Local sheriff (via NYT):

  “They came at him like storm troopers… I call them bush league because it is. This is not professionalism, but it’s meeting a quota.” ([09:18])

• Mary McCord:

  “The local and state law enforcement...are trying to protect those constitutional rights against our own federal government’s infringing on them. And all of it...is making the public less safe.” ([07:07])

ICE as a Political Weapon

• Basil Smichel:

  “It’s not about existing within the rules. It’s about breaking the rules to serve a very specific end and, quite frankly, inflict some kind of terror on these communities and on these families.” ([12:08])

On Erosion of Legal Norms

• Mary McCord:

  “The Fourth Amendment requires it…There is absolutely zero authority…to go into someone’s home without a warrant.” ([11:18])

Trump’s Mass Deportation Backfiring Politically

• Mike Madrid (GOP strategist), via Nicole Wallace:

  “Hard to find another situation in the past 50 years where a political party has squandered a generational opportunity like this.” ([19:38])

Real Human Cost

• Nicole Wallace (about Ofelia Torres):

  “What are we doing?... The cruelty is the point...But there is something in the face of this child and the story of this child that reminds us that this is a choice.” ([16:35])

Global Alliances Fractured

• Gov. Gavin Newsom:

  "Donald Trump is temporary. He’ll be gone in three years. California is a stable and reliable partner in this space." ([30:35])

• Amb. Michael McFaul

  "To me as an American, I was embarrassed to be in Munich because of that dichotomy.” ([35:12])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• ICE causes panic among NJ schoolchildren: [01:04]-[05:32]
• Community backlash, law enforcement unease: [05:32]-[09:10]
• Legal/Constitutional arguments, quotas, and warrants debate: [09:10]-[12:08]
• ICE as a political instrument; rule of law implications: [12:08]-[13:58]
• Political fallout in Texas, Latino voter impact: [19:38]-[22:22]
• Democratic strategy, failures of both parties: [23:50]-[27:51]
• Human stories put front and center (Ofelia Torres): [16:35]-[18:13]
• Global perspective—Munich Security Conference: [29:39]-[38:03]
• Update on Nancy Guthrie abduction (Tucson, AZ): [39:02]-[44:37]
• Federal judge blocks attempt to remove exhibit on enslaved people: [44:37]-[46:09]

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Conclusion

This episode provides a thorough, urgent discussion of how hardline immigration policy—previously a Republican strength—has become a liability both at home and abroad. The hosts and guests repeatedly emphasize the dissonance between official rhetoric, lived experience, and core American values, highlighting the emotional and political repercussions for both the GOP and broader U.S. society. The conversation makes clear: the midterm elections, American legal norms, and the country's reputation on the world stage are all on the line.

Transcript

[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Alex Tabitt]

I've never protested before in my entire life, but. Sorry.

[Narrator/Announcer]

It's all right.

[Alex Tabitt]

I watched 4th and 5th grade kids run away from our own government. I never want to see that again. And I'm not going to stand by and watch my neighbors run away scared. That's not Camden County. That's not New Jersey. It's not the United States.

[Basil Smichel]

I love the United States.

[Alex Tabitt]

I love New Jersey and I love Camden County. I love Linna Wall too. But that's not. That's not what, you know, we are. It's not who we are. And I decided I'm just gonna come out here and stand with you guys and be part of this because I never want to see a child ever.

[Nicole Wallace]

Run away from our own government ever again.

[Basil Smichel]

Sorry about getting.

[Nicole Wallace]

Hi everyone, it's five o' clock here in Washington, D.C. i'm Alicia Menendez in for Nicole Wallace. What many believed was a central issue to Donald Trump's win in November of 2024 immigration is now looking like his political Achilles heel. Donald Trump and Republicans have no one else but themselves to blame. That was a local school official in New Jersey protesting after ICE agents were spotted near a bus stop causing elementary school students to flee. Security camera footage captured fourth and fifth graders running away in fear, warning each other that ICE was nearby. A school bus monitor telling local news, quote, just kind of broke my heart because once they were actually on the bus, they were just huddled up like, with their hands over their heads, like crying underneath the seats. It was just a really horrible morning overall for them. I spent the majority of the ride trying to console them and trying to get them to stop crying, she added in a statement. DHS said they were conducting a, quote, targeted enforcement action to arrest someone they said had a criminal record and that for their safety and that of the community, officers left without completing the arrest. As the number of stories of terrified children and families separated continue to grow, so has the backlash, with growing numbers of protesters taking to the streets, many of whom, like the man we just showed you, having never been involved in politics until mass deportation began. It has all culminated in a political showdown in Washington over funding for ice. The Department of Homeland Security is at the moment shut down after Democrats in the White House failed to reach an agreement over changes to ice. Trump administration emphasizing that this would not stop ICE operations, writing in a letter, quote, immigration enforcement and border security operations have ample funding. While ICE operations may remain unchecked for now, it is growing increasingly politically toxic for Donald Trump. 65% of Americans saying ICE has gone too far. That's according to a recent NPR Marist poll. And the frustration and anger over ICE operations is reaching all corners of this country. The New York Times reports this quote, trump's mass deportation effort has already extended well past large liberal cities like Minneapolis to small communities where the national speed does not exist. But the impact can be at least as acute in places like Cornelius, Oregon, Danbury, Connecticut, Biddeford, Maine, and Coon Rapids, Minnesota, where moderation, not partisanship, might predominate. The arrival of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the more aggressive tactics ICE officers often use have been jarring. One local sheriff said she and other law enforcement leaders have met with regional and national officials from the Department of Homeland Security to ask for what they consider basic changes in how ICE operators operates, including wearing visible badges identifying themselves as federal officers, notifying local police before making arrests in public places. We've talked a lot, she said, nothing has changed. And that is where we start this hour with our panel. Former DHS official and White House advisor, founder of America's Promise, and senior fellow at Forward us Andrea Flores is here. Also joining us, former acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the Justice Department, Mary McCord. And Basil Smichel is back with us. I'm so struck on the that all the video we use is from the state. I live in the state. I love New Jersey. When I saw those images of children running away from ice, I thought, well, we've spoken so much about all of the places where we've seen massive surges and massive enforcement, and we have said they are just moving somewhere else and the trauma is just moving somewhere else. But then also to see that man come out and say, I've Never gone to a protest in my life. But look at that video. You can't walk, watch that video and say that that's the country you want to live in.

[Andrea Flores]

Yeah, it's really moving to see that kind of wake up call that Americans are having. Right. This is not the first time we've seen enforcement at schools in the past year. But as it goes to community to community, we will see more Americans realizing that this is the policy that our president has made his number one priority. It's a policy of mass deportations, which has required things like restarting enforcement at schools, which had not been the case, and is something that Congress could very easily now step in and demand to end. And so I think that kind of organization is really important right now. And for every citizen outrage. I keep saying there is like a path forward. We're in a midterm year. Mass deportations are now a midterm issue when a year ago immigration was something nobody wanted to touch. People see what it will really take to get up to 1 million deportations. And it's going to take children running away from schools in fear and be traumatized. And I don't want that to happen. But if that's what it takes to move Congress to finally change the system, so be it. But it's not going to happen if we don't have more people like this man in New Jersey.

[Nicole Wallace]

Well, I'm just so struck by the fact that the emotional piece of it obviously gets folks like me who have long cared about this issue and understood sort of what the community consequences were going to be. But the fact that you have local law enforcement, Mary, saying you are making our job harder, we have asked for very basic things, and you are not meeting us halfway. If what Donald Trump and his administration were trying, trying to sell was immigration as a safety and security issue, the fact that you now have law enforcement saying we can't keep people safe and secure because your policies don't work, that feels like a different part of the conversation.

[Narrator/Announcer]

It is.

[Mary McCord]

I mean, if they were serious about this, they would try to have partnerships. And I don't mean kind of the coercive partnership that they're trying to have, which is like, if you don't enter into 287G agreements with the federal government, which by which they essentially deputize local law enforcement to be immigration agents. If you don't do that, you know, we'll cut your funding for this. We'll do this to you. We'll send an ICE raid to you. That's not the kind of cooperation I mean, but if they were really serious, they would try to work hand in club. They'd try to, they'd try to actually figure out who are the actual criminal worst of the worst. Right.

[Nicole Wallace]

Who they want to be targeting.

[Mary McCord]

But they're not doing any of that.

[Nicole Wallace]

Because they couldn't meet their quotas if they did.

[Mary McCord]

That's right. They absolutely could not. And you know, it's not only the reversal of the policy at schools, as I know Andrea knows, it's a reversal of the policy of not going to churches or to places of worship, including the places around, you know, parking lots and things like that, around places of worship. And we're seeing that impact so many people. So, you know, the local and state law enforcement in many cases are the ones kind of like stepping in and they are definitely the ones trying to protect people like the protester for his very first time protesting, trying to protect the First Amendment rights of protesters against ICE's heavy handedness. Now, sometimes they have to make arrests when things, you know, when there are individual actors who do engage in acts of violence. But I know many of the state and local law enforcement are really trying to protect those constitutional rights against our own federal governments infringing on them. And all of it, like you say, is making the public less safe. Not to mention the possibility for, you know, what we think of as like blue on blue violence. Right. Because when state and local officials don't really know who these masked people are in full military kits with jeans and all kinds of, you know, full military gear up top, but wearing blue jeans and sneakers, you know, this is really a recipe for people to, you know, dress that way who are not actually ICE agents and, you know, take advantage of other people and local, state and law enforcement have to negotiate all of that.

[Nicole Wallace]

Well, and to that point, I want you to take a listen. The New York Times interviewed local sheriffs about ICE operations. Let's hear from them.

[Narrator/Announcer]

They came at him like storm troopers. You know, the tactics, you know, I call them bush league because it is. This is not professionalism, but it's meet in a quota.

[Basil Smichel]

You can't set quotas in law enforcement because bad things are going to happen.

[Narrator/Announcer]

The communication is worse of the worst. We still can work together, but it takes cooperation. You simply just can't come in our cities, overshadow us and then expect us to respond to you.

[Alex Tabitt]

It creates a division within my own profession.

[Nicole Wallace]

And there's a right way to do our job and there's also a wrong.

[Andrea Flores]

Way to do the job.

[Narrator/Announcer]

So what you're seeing is this type.

[Alex Tabitt]

Of enforcement that is not making us safer, it's dividing us.

[Nicole Wallace]

There is an opportunity right now for Congress to be having this conversation, but it is as though the White House is so dug in on their positioning around the current use of ice, it does not seem that the proposals they're bringing to Congress are really even a good faith starting point.

[Andrea Flores]

They aren't. And I was really shocked this weekend. Tom Homan, the border czar, went on a media tour and he talked about, you know, it's interesting, he totally leaves out the border patrol from all of his points, blames them for a lot of the chaos, says that he's coming in and bringing in ICE to be more professional. And yet the things that he says the White House will not budge on are masking, which ICE has never had to do before. We've never had a secret mass police force. And he's also pushing back on warrant issues. I've noticed. Ask any American common sense, do you think your law enforcement should be able to be identified? They'll say yes. And do you think that you should have a warrant to go into someone's private home? So simple. These are not even huge asks from the Democratic Party, and yet the White House is saying no. That's not a starting point. So if that doesn't give you a sense of why they want to keep the sort of extreme like approach to this issue on the table, I think I was just very alarmed this weekend by saying you're not even trying to negotiate. This is not even a good faith starting point. These are two popular issues. You could just continue on with your enforcement operations without masks and with judicial warrants.

[Mary McCord]

And just on the warrant point, it's not just like, what do Americans think? Should you have a warrant or not? I mean, the Fourth Amendment requires it. I mean, our founders. Your home was your sanctuary. It was the most important thing. And there is absolutely zero authority in Supreme Court precedent or other legal authority for the idea that you can go into somebody's home without a warrant. I mean, so to not want to budge on that basic Fourth Amendment principle is really pretty outrageous.

[Nicole Wallace]

Basil, I will say Andrea has sat at this table many times and made the argument to me that none of this was ever about it. Immigration. It was always about stress testing the rule of law and what they could get away with. Yes, that they might be testing the Fourth Amendment vis a vis immigrants. But wait one minute, because it's coming for all of us soon. And I wonder if you think Those dots have been connected for the average American voter.

[Basil Smichel]

I think so. I think so. It's not about immigration. Look, There are over 18,000 law enforcement agencies in this country at every level of government. And even if you don't like what they do, even if you think they should have different rules or different forms of accountability and transparency, they do find a way to work with each other to at least skirt the law or obey the law to the extent that they see fit. Even if we still try to push for more accountability and transparency. If you decide to look at ICE the way it's currently behaving and constituted, not as a law enforcement agency, but as a squad that is specifically given authority by this president to do his bidding, then you see it through a whole different lens, right? Then it's not about trying to get ICE to adhere to these norms. It's all about breaking the norms to do the President's bidding. That's why the ads that they use to recruit people into ICE have the kind of language that we would see in an authoritarian government. Take back your country. Go after these people, people. It's not about existing within the rules. It's about breaking the rules to serve a very specific end and to, quite frankly, inflict some kind of terror on these communities and on these families. So the reason that you're seeing a lot of people mobilize right now is because they are looking at ICE in the same way, not as a law enforcement agency that's engaged in some kind of mission creepy. It's an agency that is there specifically to do the President's bidding. And recognizing that without guardrails, which Congress has certainly not implemented or has actually intentionally eroded, there's nothing to stop him from doing more.

[Nicole Wallace]

Well, to build on that point, and to build on your point about the fact that Tom Holman has been on a media tour. This is what he had to say yesterday, his claiming that ICE is not racially profiling. Take a listen.

[Basil Smichel]

When they say stop racial profiling, that's just not occurring. I mean, you know, ICE will detain, briefly detain and question somebody based on reasonable suspicion. Has nothing to do with racial profiling.

[Nicole Wallace]

I mean, just to be fair, the Supreme Court sanctioned the racial profiling. So I'm not even sure why that's his answer.

[Mary McCord]

And the Department of Justice argued in favor of it, essentially, which is that you can take the look of somebody's skin, whether they have an accent, where they work, what kind of job they do, and that's enough to make a targeted stop. I mean, that's the argument they made. So it's really something to hear him.

[Andrea Flores]

Say, no, that's not what we're doing. Yeah, I'd like him to listen or watch any single video on social media right now of a black or a brown person or an Asian person who've been stopped, and they're U.S. citizens, and they're not stopped for brief encounters. They're being detained, and they're being detained and thrown into facilities where there's no oversight and people are losing their family members. I mean, that's just him lying to the American public about what they're doing.

[Nicole Wallace]

It's him lying to the American public about what they're doing. And, Basil, I think part of the reason that you see that lie is because the truth is not politically palatable.

[Michael Crowley]

Right.

[Nicole Wallace]

I mean, he could say, we have permission to do this. This is why we're hanging out outside of Home Depot. This is why we're listening to people. The language that they speak, if it's not English, but they know that that does not actually comport with where the American public is.

[Basil Smichel]

No, they know that. But, you know, as we could argue in a lot of different areas, outside of ice, they're not governing for the American people anymore. We're well past that. He is governing for a very small group of people, some of whom might be very powerful, consistently in his ear. Maybe they're CEOs, maybe they're not. But he's governing to a very, very small group of people. And he doesn't. He's not intending to govern for the American people or even the majority of people that may have gotten him elected. And that's why I do think that there is some going back to your earlier question, that this mobilization that you're seeing is concurrent with the polling numbers that we're seeing drop as well, particularly among independents. There are a lot of Republicans that still like what he's doing, but with a lot of. Certainly with Democrats, but a lot of independent voters. This is not what they signed up for. But the President continues, as I said, to govern for a smaller and smaller group of people.

[Nicole Wallace]

I want to make sure before we go to break that we talk about Ofelia Torres, the teen. Her dad was detained by U.S. immigrations and Customs Enforcement last year. She was sick with a rare form of cancer. She has died. Three days before Ofelia's death, she was in a zoom hearing over a removal order for her. What are we doing? What are we doing? How do you have kids running to their bus monitor afraid of their own government. How do you have a child who should be focused on her own healing, having to be her father's protector? And I mean, it just, it does not have to be this way. And I know we often say the cruelty is the point. We talk about the numbers. But there is something in the face of this child and the story of this child that reminds us that this is a choice. And it is a choice that right now Congress has the capacity to do something about.

[Andrea Flores]

They do. And if they don't meet this political moment, I don't know how we come back from this. Because, yes, there's a choice. But our detention system has been built this way for decades and it is being rapidly expanded because those laws are in place and the tools and the funding were in place to do so quickly. And it's not the first time probably that a family member has tried to see if they were terminally ill, not be able to see their family member. And this has been built. And Democrats have to meet this moment and show how they will govern differently because we have so much outrage. But they haven't been able to land that outrage into a plan for the future because people care about the enforcement immigration law. But we shouldn't be doing this to children. And that is what should be guiding us in these midterm politics, like immigration's on the ballot in a really different way than it has been in the past.

[Nicole Wallace]

A plan for the future with moral clarity. All right, the panel is sticking with me. When we come back, political kryptonite. How it was once considered to be one of Donald TRUMP and the GOP's strongest issues threatens to sink Republicans in a crucial midterm battleground. Plus, competing visions of America on the world stage. As Marco Rubio lectures our European allies, Democrats tell the world that Trump won't be in charge forever. And later in the program, the search continues for Nancy Guthrie as her daughter Today show host Savannah Guthrie calls for her mother's abductor to do the right thing. Deadline White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.

[Andrea Flores]

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[Alex Tabitt]

Chalk.

[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Alex Tabitt]

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[Andrea Flores]

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[Alex Tabitt]

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[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Nicole Wallace]

Donald Trump's mass deportation campaign is so unpopular it is threatening to bring down Republicans in states he carried by 14 points. Politico reports this out of Texas, quote, backlash to President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown is putting vulnerable Republicans in a tough spot, forcing them to shift their tone to appease frustrated Hispanic voters or risk losing key battleground seats. The district that Republicans thought were their future a year ago are likely to be their undoings. Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who is a frequent critic of Trump. Hard to find another situation in the past 50 years where a political party has squandered a generational opportunity like this. We are back with Andrea, Mary and Basil. I mean, when we talk about Latino voters, specifically Latino voters at the US Mexico border in a state like Texas, immigration is, of course, a piece of this. I also think the economy is a piece of this. And it is the two of them in tandem. It is the fact that he has not delivered on the promises he made about the economy. And what is happening vis a vis immigration is different than what he sold.

[Andrea Flores]

Yes, I think both parties deeply misread the Latino vote in the last election. Right. Because you came after four years of Biden's border problems. And Latinos had a very negative reaction to seeing people getting immigration benefits they had been waiting for decades for, for many of their family members. And then there was the cost of living issues. And so Trump, I think, thought that some of that Latino anger against recently arrived immigrants was going to give him maybe more time politically. But once you start looking at what mass deportations were always going to entail, the easiest people to deport right now are people who've been here the longest. Right. Because they come from the countries that accept these deportation flights. It's not the people who came recently. And then also on the affordability thing, there's just billions of dollars that are going from people's health care into DHS and to dhs, do the racial profiling and to operate this new federal secret police force. And it feels like a secret police force because once again, we don't know if it's Border Patrol or ICE or who else is in the community. What a failure for the Latino community. But here's what I worry about is that Democrats aren't here to meet that moment and to say One, we see the pain that your community is deeply going through. Two, here's an alternative immigration system that is controlled and fair and compassionate. And then three, also the cost of living issues. Right? Because it's a complicated issue. Border Patrol is a big employer in states like Texas. So if you're gonna do reforms, you have to be respectful of the workforce that's there. So these issues are complicated, and you need sophisticated Latino analysis going into these elections. I worry that, you know, we'll just expect that, you know, a few reforms coming out of this ICE funding fight is enough for Latino vote. It's not.

[Mary McCord]

I think also this. All of this shows that when this idea of this mass deportation plan, you know, got birthed, there was just no foresight. Not there was no political foresight. There was no foresight on how courts would react. Right. When you change policies that have been placed for decades, and suddenly you're detaining without bail, people who've been here for decades under new interpretation, first time ever, of a statute that has been rejected now by almost every court, when you're making decisions to do things like arrest people without warrants and under a new interpretation of how you can do that, like, they did not foresee how that would impact the downstream effects of any of that politically, like Andrea was talking about economically. And economically is not just the things you were talking about, but also the things like the labor shortages. I mean, massive labor shortages across many, many different industries in blue states and red states and blue cities and red cities. I was reading about a town in Idaho where they're like, oh, my gosh, we don't have any workers because of these raids that have been coming here. So. And then, of course, they weren't thinking about how, you know, if you start detaining people, you're going to have hundreds and thousands of habeas petitions, courts are ordering people to be released, and DHS had no mechanism to even monitor these court orders. They're now in, you know, in contempt of court in hundreds of cases, and judges are really having it up to here. Like, zero foresight on any of this.

[Nicole Wallace]

Well, and that lack of foresight, Basil, is now playing out in Texas. I want to read you a little bit more from the political reporting about what is happening there. Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz, representing a majority Hispanic district, has gone from calling for mass deportations to focusing on the worst of the worst. But De La Cruz's shift in messaging has simultaneously earned skepticism from some industry leaders and frustration with the base underscoring the political tightrope she must walk until November. The local GOP county party chair thinks de la Cruz has become too soft on deportations. I align with some of it, but very little, he said. You know, like whatever happens to just like having a principled stance. Like I get, I get it, I get that like politics is a lot of finesse on an issue. But, but if you represent a district on the U. S. Mexico border, you really should have a vision for how this should operate and you should be able to articulate that and to back it up with facts and maybe even in some cases, Basil, to go toe to toe with your own political party and say you've crossed a line.

[Basil Smichel]

Yeah, but that's all well and good, but I mean honestly, how many Republicans have we seen that are really willing to do that? You've got mat, so you've got Marjorie Taylor Greene, who herself is not running again. And so there are political consequences that a lot of these Republicans feel and embrace and it causes them to essentially try to, try to do this balancing act, not in a very good way. So I don't expect any real change to come from members of Congress or D.C. for that matter. And that's why I've always been a been a proponent of being focused locally. You've seen that how Democrats have won a lot of state level elections across the country over the last year or so. And I think one of the messages that they've had is owing to what my colleagues on the panel have said is talking about issues whether it's affordability, whether it's immigration, whether it is health care costs, and actually have a look forward, not just be anti truck. And this is, and it's important because we're in a place where we're seeing both crony capitalism and what I call the gamification of American politics. You know, this performative politics, the theater, the spectacle of it, the bombast of it, but an ignorance to the human stakes that are embodied in all of this behavior. And I think more and more people are waking up to the human toll that is taking. Remember a year ago, Dr. Phil was embedded with ice. Hulk Hogan, the late wrestler, was taking pictures in front of people who were being detained. There's a point at which I think people have said enough is enough. Democrats just need to at this point give them a clear alternative.

[Nicole Wallace]

Well, I mean, I generally accept Basil's point that there is more opportunity at the local level politically. At the same time, if you're talking about reforming ice, reforming dhs, the that has to come through Congress It's a federal issue.

[Andrea Flores]

Like how many decades are we going to go by hoping we could launch a state fix? We can't. You have to have Congress act on this. And so my question really, and it was interesting. You know, there was a lot of everyone was at the Munich security conference and there's a big question about what's going on with the White House immigration negotiations. And I think it's interesting, like, why aren't the 2028 candidates already talking about the future on immigration? My goodness. Like, like if there's not a threshold issue that crosses foreign policy, public safety, affordability, it's immigration and the lack of leadership right now and vision is something that is such opportunity for people in the campaign year. And I hope it comes. And unfortunately, some of it's going to have to come from D.C. because Congress is the only one that's going to bring order to DHS and any of the reforms that Americans want to see.

[Nicole Wallace]

Andrea Flores, Mayor McCord, thank you both so much for being with us. Basil Smichel, thank you for spending so much time with me today. Coming up, one prominent Democrat tells the world, quote, donald Trump is temporary. He'll be gone in three years. We got that story. Next.

[Narrator/Announcer]

It'S tax season. And at LifeLock, we know you're tired of numbers, but here's a big one you need to hear. Billions. That's the amount of money and refunds the IRS has flagged for possible identity fraud. Now here's another big number. 100 million. That's how many data points LifeLock monitors every second. If your identity is stolen, stolen, we'll fix it. Guaranteed. One last big number. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com special offer for the threats you can't control. Terms apply. Tired of the same old game night? Switch things up with Chumba casino. Play over 200 free online social casino games from classic slots in blackjack to exclusive in house favorites you won't find anywhere else. However long you got, you can play your way anytime, anywhere. Make your next chill night a little more fun with Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW group void where prohibited by log. See Terms and conditions for details. 21/subscribe to MSNow Premium on Apple Podcasts for early access, ad free listening and bonus content to all of MSNOW's original podcasts, including the chart topping series the Best People with Nicole Wallace. Why is this happening? Main justice and more. Plus new episodes of all your favorite Ms. Now shows. Ad free and ad free listening to all of Rachel Maddow's original series, including Rachel Maddow presents Burn order. Subscribe to MSNow Premium on Apple Podcasts.

[Nicole Wallace]

Competing visions of America played out on the world stage at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. Representing the Trump administration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who slammed mass migration and called on Europe to help build Trump's vision of world order. Democrats, meanwhile, grappled with the damage to our alliances caused by Donald Trump. Senator Mark Kelly posted his observations from the Munich Security Conference. Quote, it took a world war and eight decades to build the strongest alliance that this world had ever seen. Took less than a year to practically destroy it. When Secretary Rubio said the old World order was dead during his speech in Munich, he was right. It's dead because Donald Trump blew it up.

[Basil Smichel]

Up.

[Nicole Wallace]

He thinks this somehow benefits us. He is wrong. Our allies no longer trust us. It was obvious in the more than a dozen meetings I had with presidents, prime ministers, and defense and foreign ministers. And take a listen to California Governor Gavin Newsom.

[Alex Tabitt]

I hope if there's nothing else I can communicate today, Donald Trump is temporary.

[Narrator/Announcer]

He'll be gone in three years.

[Alex Tabitt]

California is a stable and reliable partner in this space.

[Nicole Wallace]

I want to bring in diplomatic correspondent for the New York Times, Michael Crowley and international affairs analyst Michael McFaul. He's here. He's a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. Ambassador McFaul, you were at the Munich Security Conference. I just got to know what was the reaction to these competing messages from the Trump administration and then from Democrats.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Well, there was relief to Secretary Rubio's speech because it wasn't as bad as the vice president's speech last year at the same meeting. I was there as well, and they stood up. They gave him a standing ovation for that. But the message was not that different. The message was, everything's broken and it's our way or the highway. And then after he left Munich, he went to Hungary and he'll go on to Slovakia, because they are playing to unite the illiberal world, the populist nationalists of the world. Whereas most people at the Munich Security Conference want a liberal international order where the United States and democracies are united around a set of common goals. So there was a big divide, but there are a big divide between Americans, as usual. I'm so glad you played that. And especially when the governor said that I was in the room when he said that, because too many people abroad, they hear Trump and they say, the United States, they say, America believes this. America wants this. Well, it turns out that millions and Millions of Americans, including me, agree with our European counterparts that we are stronger together in institutions that produce win win outcomes rather than this zero sum habeasian world that the Trump administration seems to dream of creating.

[Nicole Wallace]

Michael Crowley, a room full of diplomats giving the US Secretary of State a standing ovation because his remarks weren't as bad as the Vice President's remarks were last year, is really a pretty low bar. I wonder when you talk to diplomats, their reaction to what they heard from U.S. officials.

[Michael Crowley]

The bar is incredibly low and sort of anything short of, of threats and the possibility of war with NATO over something like Greenland is a source of relief at this point. That's where we are at. And look, I think that it's not entirely surprising because Rubio is kind of a Trump translator to some of these audiences. He's Trumpy enough to maintain his standing with the president and in the administration, but he has the credibility as someone who as a senator from Florida was actually, you know, a strong transatlanticist, strong defender of NATO, a believer in working with our allies, our European allies, especially a big hawk against Vladimir Putin. He's now transformed a little bit and he's much more. He has much more of a MAGA tone. But at the same time, I think that these European diplomats feel like on some level Rubio gets it. Many of them are disappointed in him. Some might even express something like disgust where they think that he has betrayed past principles. Nevertheless, he's a messenger that I think comforts them. And when he gives a message like that, I think they feel like at least there's someone who understands our perspective on the inside. I think many of them believe he says the things he has to say to kind of survive with Trump and survive with the base. But they are happy that he's there, cuz I think they see him as one of the few guardrails when it comes to their issues within this administration.

[Nicole Wallace]

Ambassador, to the point that Michael is making about the distinction between tone and substance, I was struck by something that Heather Koch Richardson wrote about the Munich Security Conference. She writes this entirely ignoring the threat of autocratic Russia against Europe, Rubio pushed Europe to abandon the values of democracy in favor of imperialism. Rubio's version of history echoes that of the Nazis during World War II and ignores the strength of the real multicultural history of the United States. European leaders wanted no part of it, understanding that he may be some type of Trump translator. If you dig just below the surface, the vision that he is sharing with these leaders, it is dangerous, it is scary. And I wonder how it is then put into practice once this conference is over?

[Narrator/Announcer]

Well, first speeches are nice, but policy matters more. What was striking about his speech is he didn't even mention the war in Ukraine. He didn't even mention Putin's brutal imperialist intervention and annexation in Ukraine. He only did it during the questions. And number two, we right now in the biggest war in Europe Since World War II in the fight for security, just leave the values out. If you want to talk about hard power, Secretary Rubio, we are doing nothing to help Ukrainians. We are down to near zero. It's the Europeans that are leading. And to me as an American, I was embarrassed to be in Munich because of that dichotomy. We are not in the biggest fight for freedom of our time. And Secretary Rubio, somebody I've known for a long time, he was part of my confirmation hearings way back when I was going on to Moscow. I know what he really thinks. The fact that he is not doing more to try to change the policy is deeply disappointing to me.

[Nicole Wallace]

Well, especially Michael Crowley, since we are now seeing the emergence of a new world order. You had Senator Mark Kelly, he warned about how other countries are, quote, looking elsewhere for trade and security. As you spoke to folks who were there, as they were metabolizing the lessons they heard, your sense of the way in which these allegiances and loyalties are already shifting.

[Michael Crowley]

Yeah, look, there's clearly a shift. Europe. Even prior to President Trump's second term, European leaders were talking about more of a degree of self sufficiency, a sense that they couldn't rely on the United States over the long term. And I think that clearly those feelings have been exacerbated and accelerated. You know, 70 or so years of feeling like the US commitment to Europe was more or less rock solid suddenly have begun to crumble. At the same time, you know, Governor Newsom is onto something. President Trump has less than three years left in office. A president's last year is often, you know, everyone knows he's leaving. His power is often quite diminished. And, you know, the lame duckness really sets in after the midterms, particularly if Democrats, Democrats do well in the midterms. And I think that Ambassador McFaul also made the point that, you know, plenty of Europeans know that millions and millions of Americans like the way things were before. They like unity with our European allies. They didn't want to see us fighting. So I think that there's a little bit of a sense in Europe of let's see how this goes. I don't think there's an assumption that America is lost forever. There's deep concern and disappointment. But I think there's also a sense that, like, maybe we can get through a couple more years and the worst will be behind us, but certainly no one is going to take that for granted.

[Nicole Wallace]

Let's see how this goes. Is not the most assuring thing I have heard today. Michael Crowley, Ambassador McFaul, thank you both so much for joining us, talking us through this. After the break, a plea from TODAY show host Savannah Guthrie as investigators pursue a new lead. Now two weeks into the search for Nancy Guthrie, her daughter, today show host Savannah Guthrie shared a new message last night, pleading for her mother's return. I just wanted to come on and say that we still have hope and.

[Narrator/Announcer]

We still believe.

[Nicole Wallace]

And I wanted to.

[Andrea Flores]

Say.

[Nicole Wallace]

To whoever has her or knows where she is that it's never too.

[Andrea Flores]

Late.

[Nicole Wallace]

And you're not lost or alone.

[Narrator/Announcer]

And it is never too late to.

[Nicole Wallace]

Do the right thing. Today the Pima county sheriff released a statement that reads, quote, to be clear, the Guthrie family, to include all siblings and spouses, has been cleared as possible suspects in this case. The family has been nothing but cooperative and gracious and are victims in this case. To suggest otherwise is not only wrong, it is cruel. As of today, no suspects have been named. No arrests have been made, but authorities appear to have a new lead. The FBI says that gloves containing DNA evidence were recovered about two miles from Nancy Guthrie's home near Tucson, Arizona, and they appear to match those worn in the video from her front porch on the morning she disappeared. Authorities continue to ask that anyone with information call 1-800-Call-FBI. You can also call 911 or the Pima County Sheriff's Office at 520-351-4900. Let's bring in our reporter Alex Tabitt in Tucson. Alex, what's the latest?

[Alex Tabitt]

Well, Alicia, we know that investigators are working on this new lead that you just mentioned. With regard to the glove, I wanted to read you a statement from the Pima County Sheriff's Department that came out just a few hours ago. It says Investigators collected approximately 16 gloves in various areas near the house. Most of them were searchers gloves that they discarded in various areas when they searched the vicinity. The one with the DNA profile recovery is different and appears to match the gloves of the subject in the surveillance video. So what does this mean? It means that this glove that was discovered matches the physical appearance of the glove in the surveillance video, but they do not know yet if the DNA in that glove matches DNA collected in the home right behind me, Nancy Guthrie's home. So at this point in time, this glove is a lead. It's not yet evidence. We don't know definitively yet if it is connected to the abduction of Nancy Guthrie. It's just a lead for now.

[Nicole Wallace]

Alicia, Alex, do you have any sense of why the sheriff's office felt it was necessary to make that statement regarding the family all being cleared as suspects and really recentering them as victims in this case?

[Alex Tabitt]

Well, Alicia, there is a dynamic here on the ground right now where there is a lot of disinformation and misinformation flowing around this case, and it has resulted in certain theories bubbling up that haven't necessarily been backed up with facts or with evidence. So that may explain why Sheriff Nanos released this latest statement with regard to this Guthrie family.

[Nicole Wallace]

Alicia, Alex, the FBI this weekend they did release release some more information about the person they believe is in the surveillance video. What can you tell us?

[Alex Tabitt]

So we knew going into the weekend the backpack that this person, this subject, in front of Nancy Guthrie's home, the potential abductor was wearing, was available at Walmart. What we're also learning is that some of the clothes that he was wearing may have also been purchased from Walmart. We got some more information from the Pima County Sheriff's Department just recently. It said that PCSD can confirm the clothing seen in the video may have been purchased from Walmart, but is not exclusively available at Walmart. So at, right at this moment in time, the clothes, the ski mask, the jacket, other articles of clothing might be linked to a Walmart. Why is this important? There are about seven Walmarts in the Tucson area. If this potential suspect, this subject, in front of Nancy Guthrie's home, bought the backpack, the, the, the ski mask, these articles of clothing from a Walmart in one purchase. We know that federal investigators are working with Walmart right now to comb through their logs to go through their purchases and see if someone bought all of those items in or around the Tucson area. If so, let's say a credit card was used to make those purchases. They might be able to. To nail down a name and get one step closer to a potential suspect.

[Nicole Wallace]

Alicia, Alex, there is obviously tremendous interest in this story, tremendous concern. We are two weeks in. As you talk to investigators, do they have a sense, Are you getting a sense from them about what is next in this investigation?

[Alex Tabitt]

So we do know that There are over 30,000 tips that have been called in both to the FBI and to the Pima County Sheriff sheriff's department. And what we're seeing right now is them take those tips, the leads that are generated from those tips, and try to hunt them down, see if there's any validity to them. In the last week, we've seen two search warrants executed, one in a town called Rio Rico about an hour, hour and a half south of Tucson near the border. Somebody was detained, but multiple people were detained, but no one was taken into custody during that search warrant. We saw another one on Friday, even evening, a very similar set of circumstances. No one ultimately taken into custody. So they're combing through these tips, they're combing through these leads. They're going to a judge, they're getting search warrants, and they're searching these people's homes, questioning them. But as of right now, none of those search warrants have led to a potential suspect.

[Nicole Wallace]

Alex Talbot in Tucson, Arizona, for us. Alex, thank you. Coming up, a federal judge today shot down the Trump administration's latest attempt to whitewash American history and tell you about that next. Donald Trump might be able to tear up the White House to build a ballroom, but today a federal judge blocked him from making his mark on the first executive mansion where George Washington and John Adams lived. Judge issued a preliminary injunction stopping the administration from removing an exhibit at the president's house in Philadelphia, which included names and other biographical details about the nine people enslaved by the Washington family there. The Trump administration's Parks Department last month said it conflicted with his executive order of, quote, restoring truth and sanity to American history. The city of Philadelphia sued a judge today in his order wrote on President's Day, quote, as if the Ministry of Truth In George Orwell's 1984 now existed with its modern ignorance is strength. This court is now asked to determine whether the federal government has the power it claims to disassemble and disassemble historical truths when it has some domain over historical facts, it does not. The judge ordered the exhibit to be returned immediately. Quick break for us. We'll be right back. Nicole's guest on this week's episode of the Best People is Scott Galloway. He talked with Nicole about his Resist and Unsubscribe campaign to try to get Americans to cancel their subscriptions to the tech companies that have outsized influence over the Trump administration.

[Andrea Flores]

Watch.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Just as dry January gives you a chance to recalibrate or rethink your intake.

[Michael Crowley]

Or your consumption of alcohol.

[Alex Tabitt]

At a minimum, this is a chance.

[Nicole Wallace]

To save some money, recalibrate what you.

[Michael Crowley]

Really need, what you don't, and have.

[Nicole Wallace]

Maximum impact on big tech.

[Alex Tabitt]

Send a signal to the Trump administration.

[Nicole Wallace]

And the markets that you are not down with what's going on for a minimal amount of disruption in your life. In the rest of the conversation, Galloway talks about how he sees the political tides turning and gives us his thoughts on the next election. Scan the QR code on your screen to listen now or download wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for joining us on this President's Day.

[Narrator/Announcer]

It's tax season, and at LifeLock, we know you're tired of numbers, but here's a big one you need to hear. Billions. That's the amount of money and refunds the IRS has flagged for possible identity fraud.

[Basil Smichel]

Odd.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Now here's another big number. 100 million. That's how many data points LifeLock monitors every second. If your identity is stolen, we'll fix it. Guaranteed. One last big number. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock. Com specialoffer for the threats you can't control. Terms apply.