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Commercial Narrator
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- [00:26]
Tim Miller
expensive and more complicated than the last.
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Dominic Patton
Warner Brothers Discovery and Netflix.
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Commercial Narrator
This deal could change the make of
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Dominic Patton
the media as we know it.
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Commercial Narrator
Are you personally to get involved in that deal? I haven't been involved, I must say. I guess I'm considered to be a very strong president. I've been called by both sides. It's the two sides, but I've decided I shouldn't be involved. The Justice Department will handle it. Okay, in what way? Just looking at it, see if it's going to make a decision. I mean, there's a theory that one of the companies is too big and it shouldn't be allowed to do it. And the other company is saying something else about, you know, they're not, but you're not going to interfere, even though you're beating the hell out of each other and there'll be a winner.
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Nicole Wallace
Hi again, everybody. It's five o' clock in New York. Three weeks later, and today there does appear to be what Donald Trump would call a winner. Would it surprise you to discover that it's one of Donald Trump's closest buddies? Or his buddy's Nepo baby son? Or that as a result, Donald Trump could soon expand his influence over the country's media ecosystem, including something that has been Donald Trump's trigger for a decade? CNN On Monday, we told you about that high stakes bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery. It appears Netflix had the upper hand over Paramount. Even as Donald Trump demanded Netflix remove former US Ambassador Susan Rice from its board over criticism she made of his administration. At the time, the CEO of Netflix made clear, quote, this is a business deal, not a political deal. But since then, in quick succession, Warner Brothers suggested it was taking a serious look at a new bid from Paramount. The Netflix CEO met with officials at the White House and late yesterday, Netflix said it would not counter that bid, paving the way for Paramount to close the deal. We began the hour with Donald Trump answering for his friendly relationship with the Ellison's. That is Larry Ellison, the billionaire, and his son David Ellison, the owner of Paramount, seen here giving a thumbs up as a guest of this at this week's State of the Union address. That looks comfy. Go figure. This afternoon Politico reports this quote, within hours of the agreement, some industry executives and Democratic lawmakers here said they worry that Trump's pressure campaign, including the Susan Rice threat, could reshape how political power is wielded over the entertainment industry. Quote, unequivocally, yes, it will set a bad precedent for Hollywood. That's Assemblymember Nick Schultz, a Burbank Democrat talking to Politico. Quote, I don't have a bone to pick with Paramount per se. My concern remains the influence of the Trump administration. Administration. That influence could perhaps include a hand in what happens next at cnn. As we said, a frequent and constant trigger for Donald Trump. And on the topic, the Times reports this quote, Mr. Ellison's intentions for the channel remain unclear, but the development has caused some shutters within the CNN newsroom where the chief executive Mark Thompson felt compelled to issue a memo shortly after Netflix's announcement. Within CNN though, reporters and producers have expressed concern that their newsroom's independence, a point of pride, could be compromised that Paramount absorbs the company. Concerns over the independence of America's media ecosystem, including news, is where we begin the hour. Political analyst, host of the Bulwark Podcast, Tim Miller is here with us for the hour. Also joining us, executive editor of Deadline.com, dominic Patton is here. And with me at the table, Oliver Darcy. He's the author of the newsletter Status, which covers all things media. This is where I first read about this. Just take me inside. What happened?
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Dominic Patton
Well, we should be clear. What happened is something that should not happen in well functioning democracies. What happened here is the President of the United States, no matter what he says, we watch that clip. I don't think anyone actually believes that he had nothing to do with this deal. He put the weight on the scales in favor of Paramount. And why did he do that? Because Paramount wanted to purchase all of Warner Brothers Discovery, not just the streamer and the movie studio like Netflix did. They wanted to purchase everything, including cnn. Donald Trump does not care about Hollywood programming. He does not care what movies Warner Brothers puts out, what movies Paramount puts out. I don't think he watches the White Lotus in HBO or, or Land Mount and Paramount. Plus what he cares about is cnn. And that was an asset up for grabs. And he was certainly not going to pass up an opportunity to push it into the hands of an ally. And so what he did, what his administration did, or at least the MAGA movement did, was make clear that they were going to oppose a Netflix deal on antitrust grounds. Not that there weren't legitimate antitrust concerns, but I think everyone knew what was going on here, which was we are going to block this deal so that it ends up in an ally of the President's hands. And that's what you see today. So what's going to happen now is David Ellison is going to oversee cnn. It's likely that Barry Weiss, who he's installed as the editor in chief of CBS News, is going to be positioned to lead cnn. And certainly what's going to happen is this network is going to end up softening coverage of Donald Trump because that's what they basically bargained for here. That's the whole deal was we give you CNN and you give us this entire deal.
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Nicole Wallace
Dominic, what could go wrong?
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Oliver Darcy
Well, I'm going to give you a name that may be not so known outside the Golden State. Rob Bonta. Rob Bonta is the Attorney General of California. And Rob Bonta, just mere hours after everyone was popping champagne corks down at the Paramount lot, put out a statement. This is not a done deal. DOJ back in D.C. might be signing and signing the checks and checking the boxes, but here in California, the Attorney General and the Justice Department here, they still have a probe of this. They're investigating this. And today he revealed in response online to actor Mark Ruffalo, who has his own issues about this, that he's talking to other AGs about this. So in actual fact, the multi levels of government which have been to our benefit in many ways over the past year for some, might actually be coming to the rescue.
- [06:46]
Nicole Wallace
That's fascinating. Tim Miller, your thoughts on where this stands this afternoon?
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Tim Miller
Yeah, we could do about an hour on this, Nicole. There's so many kind of layers.
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Nicole Wallace
We have the time. Let's do it.
- [06:59]
Tim Miller
Because, you know, I think that the initial reaction everybody has is right, which is I think that with concerns about consolidation of Media Corporation in The hands of Trump's allies. Right. And what that means for cnn, that matters to a lot of people. I feel pretty happy that the bulwark is independent. It's not going to matter that much to me, and I think we should talk about it. And it matters. But the, there are elements of the corruption of this deal that, you know, I think kind of get lost a little bit in this that I just want to talk about. I mean, the, for starters, this is like, this is not, I think it was, Oliver said, this is not how things work in a functioning democracy. This isn't how things work in a functioning capitalist system either. Like, this isn't really capitalism.
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Nicole Wallace
Right. It's an oligarchy. Right?
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Tim Miller
Yeah, whatever. Discovery is a ton of debt, a massive amount of debt. And, you know, the, and more debt than like Paramount has in money. So how is Paramount buying this? Right? Like Netflix has enough money to buy this. Like, how is Paramount buying it? Well, they're debt financing it from the dad of the Nepo baby, Larry Ellison, the friend of Trump, one of the richest guys in the world, and from a bunch of foreign countries, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. So it's a bunch of foreign entities and Trump's oligarch buddy that are debt financing this company because they want to control the media outlet. Like that. That is, that's what, that's what is happening here. Right. Like, it is not as, you know, it's not as if, oh, Trump just put his thumb on the scale, you know, in kind of an even Stevens situation because he liked one owner better than the other? That would be bad. You know, that would be a banana republic type situation. But it's like, it's far worse than that. This, the scale of it. And then you lay in like the free speech side of this, that how are you going to act if you're a board member of some other multinational who might have issues before the government over the next year or two, after you've just watched what happened this week where Susan Rice talks on a podcast and the next thing you know, the president of the United States threatening to get fired and, you know, helping usher in their competitor, you know, to get a business with the help of the Saudis and the Qataris, I think it would be rational for a lot of people who are in business to decide they don't want to, they won't, they're not going to speak out about stuff. So, like we, you know, as a result of this deal, like, there are some real issues down the road with CNN that that folks can. Well, we'll see how that plays out. But like, already, right now, immediately, it's a chilling of free speech. And there's even more power put into the hands of both Trump's buddies and these foreign entities that he's doing these crypto deals and these other deals with. It's crazy. Why is America, the junior partner now under Trump to Qatar and to the uae? Why do we need Qatar in the UAE to bail out American companies and the president's family? That's the situation that we're in right now, and it's not a pretty one.
- [09:52]
Nicole Wallace
I'm not ready to go to silver linings. I would agree with Tim that there are some and we'll get there. But on this layer of corruption, I mean, we spent nine years trying to cover the impact of the end of the rule of law, which is essentially what Trump ran on. It's, it's a lot easier to see it play out in reality. And, and to, to, to Dominic's point about state ages, I hope that's right. But Trump makes clear in news cycle after news cycle that the DOJ in Washington works for him.
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Dominic Patton
Yeah. And I think that's why the Ellisons are so confident that they can get this closed by September 30th or they'll have to pay a fee to Warner Brother Discovery shareholders and that it's called ticking fee. It's going to keep going and going until they get this deal done. And they're confident it's going to close because it seems like, you know, there's been a wink and a nod may handshake behind the scenes between Donald Trump and David Ellison. David Ellison was in the White House meeting with Donald Trump earlier this month. It's pretty clear that Donald Trump wants this outlet to go to David Ellison. I mean, he basically said so, Nicole, in December. He said any deal that includes Warner Brother Discovery needs to include CNN switching ownership hands. And he said that cnn, he derided cnn. He said it's a lie. You know, a network that peddles lies, which is not true. He smeared the network and he made it clear that he wanted to change hands. And now it's going to go into David Ellison's hands. And I think Tim made a good point, though. You know, there's so much corruption here that we lose sight of another big thing, which is that the Saudi Arabian government, which literally just ordered the butchering of an American journalist, a Washington Post journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, a few years ago, not like a decade ago, just like a few years ago, they're now going to be a part owner of the world's most recognizable news brand. That alone, you know, would typically be considered disqualifying. But there's so many layers to this. There's so much corruption involved in this that that's not even getting much attention today.
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Nicole Wallace
Well, we'll pay attention to it here. I'm trying to figure out how to ask this question politely and I'm not even sure why. Dominic, I've spoken to people who are sort of sympathetic to Bari Weiss's worldview and said she's doing a crappy job running cbs. Is her reward going to be that she'll also run cnn?
- [12:03]
Oliver Darcy
Well, I think Nicole, that's going to be difficult to tell right now. I mean, clearly at this point, I think she's a little overwhelmed with cbs. So I think adding another network to her portfolio might be a little difficult. But I think one element of this to both what Tim and Oliver are talking about in terms of corruption. Let's also talk about the larger feedback loop. You know, Don Deadline, we wrote earlier this month about what we called Project Netflix, which is a report that was devised by a Heritage Fund spin off called the Oversight Project that basically laid out that Netflix was the biggest propaganda agency in the history of the world, incredibly woke and listed off board of directors like Susan Rice. That document was used in the hearing just a few days later that Ted Sarandos went before the Senate subcommittee on antitrust. Literally, senators were quoting from it. We now see this is looped back into the argument against Netflix being a member of this. And you know, Ted Sarandos, as we, as you mentioned was at the White House yesterday, got a bit of a stake in the back by doing that. All of this is moving towards, if you want to call it state run media or not. The reality is there's a consolidation. But here's what's interesting and I am rarely the voice of optimism, so let's
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Tim Miller
be clear about that.
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Oliver Darcy
Senator Chris Murphy has said that when the Democrats come back in power, all of these things are going to be broken into a thousand pieces, to paraphrase jfk. So I have to say, in an America of partisan divides, the spectrum and the ball is going to go right the other way.
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Nicole Wallace
Yeah, I mean, Tim, your point about independent media is so right. I mean, I don't think that the cable channels really compete with one another. This one at least competes with you and competes with Pod Save America and competes with Oliver Darcy because that's where the trust is. And if you look at the bet that Roger Ailes made all those years ago, his bet was that a big chunk of the country didn't trust establishment media. With Donald Trump at 34 to 36% of the polls, you've got 65 to 66% of the country that doesn't trust the establishment. You know, reeks of establishment Donald Trump, Larry Ellison, his Nepo baby, David Ellison and his, you know, baby media mogul Bari Weiss and the man baby, they're trying to keep happy Donald Trump. I mean, that is now a massive media empire catering to a shrinking number of Americans. And yes, they have reach, they have reach, but content is not something. It's like the dog food that you can't make a dog eat if people aren't buying it. The opportunity for independent media and others to appeal to 65% of the country is a massive business opportunity.
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Tim Miller
It's a business opportunity that paid off for Roger Ailes. And you can say a lot negative about Roger Ailes, but he correctly identified that there was a lack of trust and there was a little bit of atrophying in the mainstream media when he started Fox and correctly identified the value of propaganda. So you got to keep that in mind too. But like it worked, right? And so the audience is going to go to news outlets that they feel that they can trust. And I don't think that there's actually a huge news audience for like Soft Maga or whatever they think Corporate Maga. I think that that's a pretty small niche of people that like Corporate maga, David Ellison and Larry Ellison are in that group and, you know, a handful of rich Trump supporters. But I don't, I don't know how well that's going to do business wise. Well, we'll kind of see how that all plays out, at least in the news area. That's what I think the area to be concerned about. I'm, I feel bad for CNN and Washington Post and all these other outlets that are being just torn apart for no reason because, you know, of the aspirations of some of the richest people in the history of the world. Like, that sucks. But for all of us, like most people can, if they don't watch Washington Post, they can come us or they go, whoever they can go listen to. There are a lot of outlets nowad. But I worry about is the algorithms, right? Because these same people are, you know, now control the TikTok algorithm, right. And you don't have as much choice there, right. Like Most people consume TikTok, they're being fed stuff. It's on what's called the for you page, right? So they're just scrolling and the algorithm is telling them what they see, right? That worries me. Obviously X is owned by Elon Musk, Meta is owned by Mark Zuckerberg, is maybe a little more malleable than Ruskin, Musk and Ellison, but even still, that's Instagram, right? That is what worries me, right? That it's like there is a shrinking number of people who go to trusted news sources and an increasing number of people who are getting propagandized on their phones. And I think if I was the Democrats and Chris Murphy next time I would focus much more on that and what kind of rules can be made around that focusing on TikTok and these other social media networks than the media consolidation.
- [16:44]
Nicole Wallace
I mean, the story of information, right, Pirate radio, the sort of rising of dissident content in authoritarian countries is the study, right? That is the study that independent media has to do. That people outside of this massive pileup of media companies, you know, on the Goliath side is now going to compete with a much smaller universe of independent and other networks, including this one. To Tim's point about the algorithms, I mean, on the just brand piece of it, one, the brand is so toxic. You've now got and something that you and Dominic have helped us track here, you've got big, big world famous people like Bono and Bruce Springsteen sort of coming out in an active way using their art to resist Donald Trump. De Niro was on my podcast this week doing the same thing as that movement sort of reflects what's happening in the country where 65% of all Americans disapprove of Donald Trump, who's looking over the horizon. I mean, this all ends no matter what. Donald Trump's gone in three years.
- [17:53]
Dominic Patton
I think that's right. This does end. And there are some warning signs for people like David Ellison that when the Democrats do get in control of Congress, not even the presidency, just Congress could be in less than a year, that he's going to be dragged before them and have a lot of explaining to do. You know, earlier this week, Senator Chris, not Chris Murphy, sorry, Blumenthal. Senator Richard Blumenthal sent a letter to David Ellison saying, you know, he had a lot of questions about the issue with Colbert. That was only earlier this month where Colbert said he was censored by cbs. And you know, he told us, Senator Blumenthal, that, you know, be clear, like we are putting him on notice, like we intend to hold all these people accountable once we are back in power. And the pendulum will swing the other direction, which is why typically business CEOs, media CEOs, they don't so brazenly take one political side of the equation.
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Nicole Wallace
They're not especially a lame duck president at 34%.
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Dominic Patton
Right. They're not going to the State of the Union doing the thumbs up with Lindsey Graham. Like you don't see the Walmart CEO doing that because it's obviously political and you don't want to be in those waters. But David Ellison has decided to do that. He is going to have a lot of explaining to do, I think when Democrats do eventually attain power. And that's going to happen. And especially with Donald Trump's approval rating so low, all he's doing in the meantime is damaging a lot of the assets that he's now owning. So it's kind of a confusing thing. He has to damage the assets, I guess, in order to obtain the assets. I don't know if he's going to be able to restore trust in outlets like CBS News or CNN after this is all said and done.
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Nicole Wallace
It's really remarkable. All right. Thank you for being here, making sense of it. Dominic, thank you. And thank you for bringing your reporting to us. Tim sticks around a little bit longer. When we come back, the United States military is amassing a huge presence ahead of a possible, a possible action military action in Iran. But the arguments the Trump administration is making right now against Iran don't really pass the truth test. We'll bring you the new reporting on that story next. Also ahead, Donald Trump wants you to think he's brought down the cost of just about everything. But that's not true. More and more Americans, for more and more Americans, the high cost of living in our country is driving them to do something that in the past has been unthinkable actually leave America. The real state of our union and the record number of Americans who are hitting the exits and leaving the country is a story we'll cover later this hour. Deadline White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.
- [20:25]
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Dominic Patton
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Nicole Wallace
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Dominic Patton
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Tim Miller
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David Fromm
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Tim Miller
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Commercial Narrator
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- [22:00]
Tim Miller
expensive and more complicated than the last.
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Commercial Narrator
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- [22:25]
Nicole Wallace
still, without any coherent explanation for any of it, Donald Trump insisted today that, quote, sometimes you have to use military action against IR while overseas. The US State Department has authorized non emergency staff at the US Embassy in Jerusalem to leave, quote, while commercial flights are available, end quote. There's also new reporting about how even the very little Donald Trump has offered up this week to explain or defend his massive military buildup in the Middle East. Doesn't really hold up on a factual basis. From the New York Times, quote, Trump and his aides asserted that Iran has restarted its nuclear program, has enough available nuclear material to build a bomb within days, and is developing long range missiles that will soon be capable of hitting the United States. All three of these claims are either false or unproven, end quote. More from that reporting, quote. Three American officials with access to current intelligence about Iran's missile programs said that Trump exaggerated the immediacy of the threat posed to the United States. I want to bring in Washington investigative correspondent for the New York Times, Mark Mazzetti. He's bylined on that reporting in the New York Times. Tim is still here as well. Mark, take us through what you are reporting.
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Commercial Narrator
So, Nicole, as this buildup has happened over the last several weeks in the Middle east, there's been this pressure on the president and the administration to sort of make a case for why war and why now. What is the urgency, what is the threat? So you started to hear that over the past week, most notably in the president's State of the Union address, where the president made claims about the nuclear program and the missile program of Iran that we looked at them and spoke to a lot of people about and basically determined that the claims made over the last week are either false or largely, you know, unfounded. Separating these out, the first is about the missile program. Now, there's no question that Iran has this incredibly large arsenal of missiles, short and medium range missiles. As we saw, these missiles are capable of hitting Israel. They are capable of hitting American troops in the region. But what the president said on Tuesday night was that they have long range missiles that could soon hit the United States. And that is a new claim and it's just false. There is no evidence that these missiles that even Iran is pursuing actively a long range program and that these missiles could hit the United States anytime soon. You saw the next day Marco Rubio kind of dial that back by saying, saying, well, one day they'll be able to do it. So that was the first major claim, and then the second was on the nuclear program that this is an urgent threat, that Iran could basically have a weapon within a week. As Steve Witkoff said a week ago on Fox News, that also is largely unfounded because, largely because of the president's strikes last June. The strikes buried a lot of the fissile material underground. And there's no evidence that Iran has been able to dig it out and also to do active work on the nuclear sites to give it the capability to do it anytime, even a year from now. So again, these claims about the urgency of the threat just don't hold up.
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Nicole Wallace
Mark, when did they migrate toward a threat narrative as opposed to what pulled Trump back into seeming to be interested in Iran in the first place, which was the protests?
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Commercial Narrator
Well, there's been this sort of circuitous path to war right over the last two months where, as you said, we first started hearing about American military support for the protesters, which made it seem like this was a potential military action against the Iranian regime, possibly to take down the regime to support the protesters. That sort of morphed into something else. You haven't heard about the protesters in some time. Obviously there's been this vicious bloody crackdown on the protests. But recently in the last couple weeks, you just hear about this idea of the threat of the nuclear and missile program. But even those arguments have morphed by the day, by the hour also depending on who says them because they're often contradictory statements in public. So even onyou know, even if we're on the eve of an attack in the coming days, as the president has indicated, there's really no clear message about what is the goal and what is the reason.
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Nicole Wallace
Are we on the precipice of an attack?
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Commercial Narrator
I think it's, you know, I don't know and maybe only the president knows. Certainly there is talk of, you know, a militarythe military being ready to strike. Israel's military is ready to also strike. That is up in the air though, what the timing might be or whether in fact there is some chance still of a negotiated solution over Iran's nuclear program. There are still talks scheduled for next week. There is a stated trip by Marco Rubio to go to Israel on Monday. So it's unclear whether there is still a path for more negotiations before any military conflict actually happens.
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Nicole Wallace
Tim Miller, I don't love giving MAGA intellectual consistency points, but I will on the issue of non interventionalism the heat behind Donald Trump's candidacy in 2015, where he defeated, among others, your old boss Jeb Bush, was around this promise to focus all of his energy and all of our money here at home. This, I think would be the third or fourth military operation of his presidency in month. I don't know, it feels like month 37. I think it's month 13. Your thoughts on the sort of political pressures on Donald Trump?
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Tim Miller
I think this is crazy. I truly don't understand what he's doing for the reason that you just laid out Nicole. And it's a direct affront to his base and the message he offered and his mandate, such as there is one from his election. Look, I mean we know on its face that their stated rationale for going into Iran is a lie, right? So that's business as usual from these guys. But like it's obviously they're not weeks away from a nuclear bomb as we just heard. It's not, we don't have an imminent threat to our country from long range missiles. So like that is not where we're going. So then the question becomes like, why are we? And some people say, well, it's a distraction thing. It's a wag the dog. It's distracting from Epstein. This would Literally be the stupidest thing he could possibly do in a real war, a hot war with Iran to distract from Epstein. There are a million things he could do to distract, and this seems like one that risks sinking his whole presidency and consuming his whole presidency. So I don't think it's that I mentioned in the last segment. He's in a lot of business with the Arab states. So I don't know, maybe there's something happening behind the scenes, we don't know with the Qataris of the UAE or Saudi. They seem to be walking us around the block quite a bit lately. Two sources told Politico this week and said the administration that they wanted Israel to attack in the hopes that Iran would counterattack in the hopes that that would provide rationale for getting into the war again. Like, I find that just as a political matter, crazy. I don't think that nobody in the country, nobody in maga, wants to go to war for Israel. Like that's not nobody, but a very small percentage of maga. So it doesn't make sense to me on any level. And I think all of the explanations they give publicly are just are clearly false and that the things that people impute on them seem to me to be very strategically stupid, if that's what they're really thinking.
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Nicole Wallace
Mark, is there any sense that this is being reverse engineered as these verifiably false statements come out, that there's any effort to make them true?
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Commercial Narrator
Well, I think, you know, certainly Iran, you know, has its own efforts underway to protect itself to let's be clear, they have a plenty capable military to inflict some kind of damage if they wanted to. If this escalates, there's no question that Iran could do significant damage to Israel, could do significant damage potentially to American bases, American troops in the region. There are many, many targets now of American military in the region. It is this question, of course, is is there someone calling someone's bluff, right. Does Iran believe that the president is not in this for the long term, that if there is a limit, quote, limited strike, short term of short term duration, whether Iran believes it can weather that and that the President of the United States doesn't want to do this for the long term because of the implications that you've discussed and that if they can surv some limited strike, then what? Then who's got the leverage? So I think that's an open question now if both sides are sort of staring each other down and wondering which
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Nicole Wallace
side's going to blink, it's amazing, amazing reporting. Marc, thank you so much for joining us. Tim sticks around for the whole hour. As we said when we come back. Turns out there is a an unbelievable thing happening. I had to read this story a couple of times to believe it. In Donald Trump's America, citizens are leaving our country in record numbers. Our friend David Fromm will join our conversation after a short break. We're also keeping an eye on Chappaqua, New York, because that is where former President Bill Clinton is still being deposed about Jeffrey Epstein by members of the House Oversight Committee. If he comes out to the cameras, as his wife Hillary Clinton did yesterday, we'll bring it to you live. Don't go anywhere.
- [32:42]
Tim Miller
Why have I asked my electrician I
- [32:43]
Dominic Patton
found on Angie.com to bury my pet hamster?
- [32:45]
David Fromm
I was so moved by how carefully he buried my electrical wires.
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Commercial Narrator
I knew I could trust him to
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Dominic Patton
bury my sweet nibbles after his untimely end.
- [32:51]
Commercial Narrator
This is very strange, Angie.
- [32:53]
Tim Miller
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- [33:41]
Nicole Wallace
as Donald Trump tries to pull every deflection and distraction and delusion out of his toolkit to wave away concerns Americans say they have about the economy. 66% of Americans from ignoring the issues of inflation and tariffs altogether to mocking people who are concerned and upset and scared about the lack of affordability. He simply cannot run away from the lived experience of Americans and the numbers. The Associated Press is reporting that across multiple indicators Americans view of the economy remains deeply remains pessimistic. They write that according to the business research group the Conference Board quote, overall confidence in the economy remains historically low and is barely above the level it plunged to in the depths of the COVID recession. And The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey remains mired at recessionary levels. End Quote in addition to Trump's 39% approval rate on the overall economy, and despite Donald Trump's attempt to proclaim that this is some sort of golden age in America, all of this is contributing to a record number, again, cold, hard numbers of Americans believing that their golden age isn't here at all, that it lies overseas. Wall Street Journal reports this quote. Last year, the United States experienced something that hasn't definitively, definitively occurred since the Great Depression. More people moved out than moved in. America's own citizens are leaving in record numbers, replanting themselves and their families in lands they find more affordable and safe. Across dozens of interviews, US Expats describe their motivations as a tangle of economic incentives, lifestyle preferences, and disenchantment with the trajectory of America, citing violent crime, cost of living and turbulent politics. Donald Trump's reelection was a factor for many, although others voted for him. But the structural and societal shift runs much deeper. When Gallup asked Americans during the 2008 recession how many wanted to leave the U.S. the answer was 1 in 10. Last year, 1 in 5. I want to bring in staff writer at the Atlantic video podcast host David Fromm. Tim Miller is still here. David, Fun this was. I feel shocked by it, but I shouldn't be. I guess that's sort of my gut not catching up with my head and what I cover myself here every day. Your thoughts?
- [36:07]
David Fromm
Let me join this to another statistic that is still taking form because the census is a little slower than these other numbers. But it looks like 2025 was the first year in which the population of the United States shrank. The United States, of course, there were fewer births than deaths. The United States has historically in recent years, made up the difference with migration, because migration is down in, migration is down out, migration is up. The number of migrants has not been equal to the number of deaths. And so it looks like 2025, first year, I think, in American history, the population may have gone down.
- [36:44]
Nicole Wallace
Wow, that is extraordinary when you look at, again, all of the data sets, they all defy everything coming out of Donald Trump's mouth. And I've put the tracking of the lies through sort of a political sieve for the 10 years I've been covering him. But it struck me watching him Tuesday night that his feedback loop exists almost completely at his golf clubs in Palm beach and in New Jersey. And he might be around some of this oligarchy that he either attracts or helped create. He might actually think that because for them, they are grifting and getting richer, that things are good or do you? I mean, what do you think?
- [37:24]
David Fromm
Well, it's an interesting question. How connected to reality is the president? Does he have systems to bring him news that he needs to know in the first term? There are people like Gary Cohn, who ran, who was the former, I think, chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs, who was the head of the National Economic Council, would sometimes tell Trump the truth, that even if he didn't want to hear it. And in the first term, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, not quite as forceful a figure as Gary Cohn, but he would also sometimes bring important bad news to the president's attention that didn't necessarily win them a lot of friendship from the president, but still there was information. Who's filling that role now? Lutnick Besant, Kevin Hassett? Who's doing, who's telling Trump the truth about things he needs to know?
- [38:05]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, I mean, I think, I mean, maybe this is my own sort of romanticizing Steve Bannon's role, but he did seem to at least play the part of a champion for the populist movement on the right. He doesn't seem to have a seat at the table. Or maybe the pardon he received has muzzled him.
- [38:24]
David Fromm
Yeah, or he's off on now his own adventures. But one of the things that someone could have told Donald Trump at the beginning was, look, you want to make the country less dependent on international trade. That's your ideological belief. You also want to make the country less dependent on, on immigrants. That's your ideological belief. But you understand if you do either of those things, never mind doing both at the same time, you're going to cut the country's production. The country will produce less. And if the country is producing less and demand holds up and there's enough money, it's going to, even before your tariffs bite, there's going to be higher prices. I think that's something that Trump doesn't really understand. Does he ever pick up a check? Does he ever see what things cost? And I think there's something else that we learned, and we learned this. The Biden people learned this, the cost. There's something especially politically demoralizing about inflation. You know, with unemployment, Americans who are, can do people believe maybe each person thinks, I can beat this if I just work hard enough on it. I just knock on enough doors. There's a job somewhere. And also unemployment. It lasts for a while, but then it abates. And even when unemployment is bad, most people have work. But in a time of inflation, it's unpredictable. It shows up in all kinds of places nobody expects. I think a lot of people have the experience. They pick up a charge and say, am I like in some foreign country and need to translate this bill into American dollars? When did this thing that used to be $6 become 8? When did this thing that used to be 13 become 18? How did that happen and why?
- [39:52]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, I mean, I also think that the way people spend money now is you can look at it on your phone all the time, which is good because you can look at it on your phone all the time. But when the numbers don't add up or you're in the deficit, you can see it all the time. There's visual sort of stimulus of your economic insecurity or anxiety, and the numbers reflect that. I want to take you through the polls, Tim Miller. I have to sneak in a quick break. We'll do that on the other side. Tim, do you believe Trump is honest and trustworthy America? No. 70% of us. Is he mentally sharp enough to serve as president? That this is even a question asked about Trump, to me feels like half the story. 56% of Americans, no. Is Donald Trump committed to protecting Americans Rights and Freedoms? 56% of Americans underwater? 13 points. No. Do you think Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself? 62%, yes. What gave it away? The Qatari jet. Has Trump exceeded his authority as president? 65%. Yes. These are extraordinary numbers. But even more extraordinary are the questions, the narrative around Trump's presidency. The questions. The questions answer. Is he grifting? In and of themselves, it's just an epic failure of morality and leadership. And I wonder what you make of sort of the slow pace of realizing just how bad it is.
- [41:18]
Tim Miller
Yeah. The insight about the questions is right. Because if you go back, I don't know, to do this in 1991, and you're asking some of those questions about George H.W. bush. Is he grifting, he stealing? You know, is he mentally competent? You know, and these are 9,010 questions. Right. Even people that didn't vote for him, that, like Bill Clinton or Michael Dukakis or that, you know, they would never assume that. So. So the fact that it's being asked is a big change and I think is noteworthy about just how dire the state of affairs is. The other side of that coin is, look, some of those numbers, you know, 43% don't think that he is infringing on people's rights, and 43% think he is, you know, capable to be President Trump. Those are still just a little bit too high for where we need them to be to make it too big to steal in November. And I think that is the big task for Democrats and for folks, anybody in the pro democracy coalition over the next few months. Trump's doing the job for us himself a lot to drive his numbers down. But if you look at that, that to me says that the Democrats are on track for winning the House, but maybe not the Senate in November. And so I think there's more work to be done. But it's.
- [42:33]
Nicole Wallace
Well, interestingly, on the question, has he exceeded his authority as president, he drops 10 points and is down to 33%. So since stealing the election is a clear example of exceeding his authority as president, if that's the path he chooses, he loses 10% of that 43% that still thinks he's sharp as a tack. David, from you get the last word.
- [42:56]
David Fromm
Well, he's also losing his nimbleness. I mean, there's a move he could do that would maybe help him. He's got $200 billion of tariff money that doesn't belong to him. Now, that money belongs to the people paid the tariffs. By law, it should be refunded to them with interest. But he's got a move which is he could say, I don't care about the law. I'm going to cut a check to every household in America, every taxpayer in America, and give you back your portion of the $200 billion. That would be illegal but quite popular. But he can't be realistic enough about what's going on in the world even to think that way. He just wants to keep, and everyone can understand, he took money illegally and he's keeping it.
- [43:31]
Nicole Wallace
I love too, though, that, like our, our advice is to do that which is illegal but popular. I mean, we're all.
- [43:37]
Commercial Narrator
That's not my advice.
- [43:38]
Nicole Wallace
No, but I'm saying that's just an observation, not advice. Not, not advice. I'm sorry, I stand corrected. But the, the analysis of what is on the table for someone like Donald Trump is to do not that which is legal and correct and return all the money to the businesses that overpay them or paid them illegally, but that he could, in his sort of pattern of the last 10 years, do that which is popular and happens to be illegal. David Frohm, great to see you. Thank you for joining us today. Tim Miller, thank you for spending the hour with me. Quick break for us. We'll be right back. If you spend any time on social media, you probably know this already. Robert De Niro is well under Donald Trump's skin right now. So if you haven't yet, please check out this week's episode of the Best People podcast to see why. My guest is the legendary Academy Award winning actor, Roberto De Niro. And here's what he told me about this moment in American history as Donald Trump and his MAGA movement have tried to redefine what it means to be a patriotic American. We just had off year elections and Democrats ran the tables. Republicans lost by huge margins, indisputable margins. To me, that creates an unfair standard. Right. Republicans just have to win. Democrats have to win in massive margins to protect against fraud and cheating. But do you think that's the standard until we get Trump out of the system?
- [45:02]
Commercial Narrator
Yeah, I think it is. I think everybody has to get out there.
- [45:05]
Tim Miller
Every way possible, they have to get out there.
- [45:08]
Commercial Narrator
This is it.
- [45:09]
Dominic Patton
This is our country. You know, I want my country back.
- [45:14]
Commercial Narrator
I don't want everybody going around with their American, the MAGA with the American flags like they're the only ones. We are the Americans, too. And I think there are more of us. No, I don't think. I know there are more of us because we believe in what's right, right and wrong. Empathy, kindness, bringing the country together, not dispersing it.
- [45:37]
Nicole Wallace
You can listen to the entire conversation with Robert De Niro by scanning the QR code on your screen. There's a whole new episode dropping tonight for subscribers to sign up for early access. Scan the QR code up on your screen right now. One more break. We'll be right back. Thank you so much for letting us into your homes for another week of shows. We are so grateful. Why have I asked my h vac guy I found on Angie.com to change my grandpa's trachea tube? Because I was so amazed by how quickly he replaced our air ducts. I knew I could trust him to
- [46:06]
Dominic Patton
change Pop Pop's tube while I was on vacation.
- [46:09]
Oliver Darcy
Make it quick, young man.
- [46:12]
Dominic Patton
Aw.
- [46:13]
Nicole Wallace
See, Pop Pop trusts you.
- [46:15]
Tim Miller
I think we should call a doctor. Connecting homeowners with skilled Pros for over 30 years, Angie, the one you trust to find the ones you trust. Find pros for all your home projects@angie.com.