“A re-escalation of the war in Iran”

Summary

Podcast Summary: Deadline: White House

Episode: “A re-escalation of the war in Iran”

Host: Nicolle Wallace
Date: July 21, 2026

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Main Theme

This episode explores the rapid escalation and mounting unpopularity of the Iran war under President Donald Trump, the hidden costs and casualties, the policy failures fueling public outrage, and the looming impact of the conflict on the U.S. economy and upcoming midterm elections. Nicolle Wallace is joined by national security experts Ben Rhodes, Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.), and David Rhode, as well as political analysts Cornell Belcher and Claire McCaskill.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rapid Escalation and Mounting Casualties

• [00:54] Opening News Recap

  • Despite Trump's repeated promises to end U.S. involvement in "forever wars," the conflict with Iran has dramatically intensified.
  • Three U.S. service members were killed in the last week, bringing total U.S. casualties to 17.
  • Notably, the war is increasingly unpopular: “Net approval for Trump's decision to attack Iran now stands at minus 30% among Americans.” (The Economist)

• Lack of Transparency

  • Reports show the administration is concealing both casualties and facility damage. Pentagon denies, but multiple sources confirm earlier strikes and injuries not disclosed by officials.

2. U.S. and Iranian Strategies & Stalemate

• [06:56] Lt. Gen. Hertling on U.S. Approach

  • The U.S. is shifting to targeting operational systems and infrastructure (e.g., cities, bridges, fuel sites) to pressure the Iranian government.
  • Strategy is to create division in Iran between the IRGC, regime, and populace, hoping to force strategic decisions—or a return to negotiations.
  • “They are bombing places like Bandar Abbas and Isfahan, transportation hubs, bridges, fuel distribution sites,” but this increases economic pressure on Iranian society and risks backlash.

• Iran’s Response

  • Iran keeps critical straits closed, depletes U.S. defenses, divides the U.S. from allies in the region, and uses proxies (notably the Houthis) to threaten new fronts and global oil flows (e.g., Red Sea blockade).
  • “They’re trading space for time and they’re putting our allies and internal elements in the United States against us... Iran still has the upper hand.” (Hertling, [08:58])

3. Rising Public Backlash & Political Fallout

• [10:56] Host & Guests: War's Unpopularity

  • Trump’s anticipated “military victory” is elusive; war’s cost is public and political.
  • “Trump is desperate to cover up the cost of the war that he started because it’s absolutely catastrophic.” (Ben Rhodes, [12:43])
  • The war’s disfavor is deeper and faster than Vietnam, with approval turning negative in months, not years.

• Cover-up Concerns

  • Reports confirm a “massive amount of damage” to U.S. bases is hidden from the public. Multiple sources cite use of satellite imagery and subpoenaed journalism to track the true toll of attacks.
  • “It is shameful on the US Congress not forcing this information out, that Americans don’t even know the extent of the injured among our service personnel.” (Ben Rhodes, [12:47])

4. Economic & Geopolitical Costs

• [11:51] Sanctions and Escalating Economic Impact

  • The ongoing conflict severely affects global oil prices, supply chains, and overall affordability for American consumers.
  • “It’s at the nexus of the most important issue in domestic politics, which is affordability, because it’s driving up the price not just at the pump, but of fertilizer, of helium, of vital inputs to the American global economy.” (Ben Rhodes, [20:19])

• [14:48] International Dynamics

  • Russia and China’s possible involvement—Russia via satellite intelligence, China with missile supply to Iran—heighten U.S. vulnerability and erode any chance of quick victory or stability.

5. Impact on Electoral Politics

• [27:44–29:00] Motivation Gap for Midterms

  • Democrats show “dramatic enthusiasm” for midterms: “Democrats are ten times more likely to be certain to vote this year than Republicans,” per Washington Post poll.
  • Poll numbers flip previous trends, with rural, white, non-college voters (a key Trump base) now largely disapproving of his economic performance—54% disapprove according to recent polling.

• [30:55] Political Analysis—Claire McCaskill

  • Trump is driving Democratic enthusiasm through both policy failure and his “narcissistic behavior.”
  • Republican donors and base are disaffected by war, tariffs, and corruption:
    “They are feeding at a trough like pigs have never fed at a trough.” (McCaskill, [32:11])

• [34:02] Ben Rhodes on Threats to Elections

  • “Trump’s midterm election strategy is not to lower prices, is not to even talk about affordability. Trump told us... it’s to steal the election. It’s to say that there’s a combination of foreign interference and domestic fraud...” ([34:15])
  • The threat is immediate: “The crisis in our election is not 2028, it’s going to be in 2026.”

6. The Trump Administration’s Messaging and Disregard for Public Opinion

• [36:45] Quote—Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (as Trump):

  • “The word affordability is a con job by the Democrats. You know, they always have a hoax. The new word is affordability. The word affordability is a Democrat scam.”

• [38:37] Claire McCaskill on Denial of Reality

  • “He can’t feed them that. There’s not an affordability problem... They are struggling. And that is real. And he can’t talk his way out of that.”

• [41:04] Cornell Belcher on Erosion of Trump’s Blue Collar Base

  • “If you look at white non-college voters, 54% of them disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing with the economy. So he’s lost a big swath of what has been his base of support.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• War Unpopularity:
  “The war in Vietnam took six years to become as reviled as the Iran war has become in six months.” - Nicolle Wallace ([01:25])

• Ben Rhodes on Military Strategy:
  “Trump wants the appearance of a military victory that he's not going to get, because strategically, the United States has already lost... escalation is not going to bring a different result.” ([12:00])

• David Rhode on Damage Secrecy:
  “Eric Schmidt... had the reporting today about dozens of casualties, not just from this weekend, but consistently being hidden by the administration.” ([14:48])

• Lt. Gen. Hertling on the Perils of Land War:
  “Iran is a big country. It’s three times larger than Iraq... you would need literally hundreds of thousands of soldiers and Marines to do whatever the plan might call for.” ([09:38])

• General Consensus:
  “When you don’t have the support of the American people or the Congress... you're probably not going to do very well in something that's not an existential threat to the United States.” - Lt. Gen. Hertling ([22:39])

• Political Stakes:
  “Trump’s problems extricating himself from Iran remind him of what Lyndon Johnson said about Vietnam: I feel like a hitchhiker caught in a hailstorm on a Texas highway. I can't run, I can't hide. I can't make it stop.” (Read by Wallace, quoting Aaron David Miller [19:41])

• Election Integrity Concerns:
  “This is happening before our eyes, is not a conspiracy theory... He gave a primetime address last week telling us that his midterm election strategy is to steal the midterm elections.” - Ben Rhodes ([34:22])

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:54 – Wallace’s intro; overview of casualties, context, war unpopularity.
• 03:29 – Discussion begins with guests: strategic failures and “no end in sight.”
• 05:35 – David Rhode details missile strikes, air defense vulnerabilities, new threats in Red Sea.
• 06:56 – Gen. Hertling outlines U.S. and Iranian strategic calculus.
• 09:38 – Hartling warns on scale of potential ground campaign in Iran.
• 11:51 – Ben Rhodes & others analyze lack of strategy, government information cover-up.
• 14:48 – Discussion of cover-up details, media suppression, and international complicity.
• 18:34 – Segment break; return with public opinion analysis.
• 20:08 – Rhodes on intersection of war, economics, and domestic politics.
• 27:44 – Segment shifts to polling, Democratic enthusiasm, and midterm implications.
• 29:31 – Cornell Belcher: data on voter motivation, shifts in base dynamics.
• 30:55 – Claire McCaskill: Trump’s actions fueling Democratic turnout, long-term worries.
• 34:02 – Ben Rhodes: election interference, threats to democratic institutions.
• 36:45 – Hertling (as Trump), McCaskill, and Belcher discuss economic skepticism, erosion of Trump’s appeal with blue-collar voters.

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Analysis & Tone

The episode is analytical, sober, and urgent, closely matching the tone of news coming from major security crises. The hosts and guests emphasize facts, polling, historical parallels, direct quotes, and policy analysis, while expressing deep concern about the ongoing loss of life, the erosion of democratic norms, and the consequences for America’s strategic standing and domestic stability.

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Conclusion

This episode offers a comprehensive, critical look at Trump’s Iran policy, the spiraling military and political costs, and the lack of honest reporting from the administration. The guests collectively warn that escalation and denial—abroad and at home—are aggravating public outrage and could decisively shape the coming midterm elections, with both economic realities and threats to U.S. democratic stability at the center of the 2026 political battle.

Transcript

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[Nicole Wallace]

Hi there everyone. Happy Monday. It's four o'clock in the east now. Despite Donald Trump's repeated campaign promises to end America's involvement in forever wars, it appears that his war with Iran is becoming exactly the kind of conflict he vowed over and over again to end and never involve the United States in ever again. The United States and Iran are closer than they have ever been to escalating the war to its highest level since the conflict began six months ago. That's after three service members were killed in the last week. That brings the total number of U.S. service members killed in the war to 17. The service members killed have been identified. They are First Lieutenant Tyler James Fearon and Private Isabella Gonzalez. The third person has yet to be identified. Earlier today, the U.S. carried out a new round of bombing in response to the attacks. Oil prices are climbing as fears of a wider war once again begin to grow. And as the war drags on and Donald Trump's casualty count grows, Americans are making it clear that they are fed up with the war in Iran. As the Economist reports in a piece titled the Iran War Is America's Least Popular since polls began, quote, net approval for Trump's decision to attack Iran now stands at minus 30% among Americans. The war in Vietnam took six years to become as reviled as the Iran war has become in six months. And as this deeply unpopular war becomes even more unpopular than when it started, Donald Trump and his administration appear to be scrambling to hide the true costs from the American people, concealing the number of service members who have been injured on that. The New York Times reports this quote in the week leading up to the Iranian attack Friday that killed two U.S. soldiers, Iran carried out three other strikes against U.S. forces in the country. Those attacks injured dozens of U.S. service members and damaged several helicopters. That is according to several US Officials who spoke anonymously to discuss operational matters. But the Pentagon did not disclose those earlier strikes, nor the casualties and damage they inflicted. In a statement, a spokesperson for the Pentagon called the reporting, quote, outright lies. But for anyone hoping that Donald Trump will somehow come to his senses and find a way to end America's involvement in this war, even if he is admitting that the Iran war isn't ending, even Trump admits the war isn't ending anytime soon.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

Well, you keep hitting me.

[Ben Rhodes]

This is a far bigger job that we're doing.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

We were doing a little job stopping

[Nicole Wallace]

them from having a certain capability.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

Now we're just ending it. So it's really not the same thing,

[Nicole Wallace]

ending it. No explanation of what the it is Donald Trump hiding the true toll on the true cost of the war with Iran that he started as even he admits there is no end in sight. That's where we begin today with former deputy national security advisor to President Barack Obama. Now the co host of Pod Save the World contributor Ben Rhodes is here. Also joining us, military analyst retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling is back. He served as the commanding general of the US army in Europe. And senior national security reporter David Rhode is here as well. David, let me start with just the body of reporting over the weekend. It's truly, it's truly shocking. And on a summer weekend, I'm not sure everyone followed every development, but each one sort of more ominous than the one before it. This is the Wall Street Journal's report on the missile that struck a housing development for US Troops at a Jordan base. Quote, the Iranian ballistic missile attack on a Jordanian airb that killed two US Service members struck prefabricated housing units where troops lived and slept. That's according to US Officials familiar with the matter. That three missiles were able to slip through US Air defenses points to the challenges in protecting the estimated 50,000 troops stationed in the region against an Iranian military that is still equipped with substantial with a substantial number of ballistic missiles and drones. One of the more consensus arguments for why we were in Iran when helping the people liberate themselves fell away in the first 24 to 48 hours was and when eliminating their nuclear program became clearly unrealistic, even to Donald Trump. One of the things that Marco Rubio talked about a great deal was eliminating their ballistic missile capabilities. It's clear we haven't done that at all.

[David Rhode]

No. And the deaths of these service members, and my heart just goes out to their families is evidence of that. And what's alarming is that the Iranians are adapting. They have lots of missiles left. And then as you were just showing in that great reporting, that they're firing multiple missiles at targets, they're somehow learning to evade American air defenses. And the vulnerability in Jordan is that Jordan is fairly close to Iran. So these are ballistic missiles that travel at incredibly fast speeds. And apparently, you know, the Iranians have found a way to get them in there without being intercepted by American defenses. That's very concerning. And, you know, we can talk about this more separately. But a separate, really alarming development is that the Houthi rebels who are based in Yemen, they're allied with Iran, they're supplied and backed by Iran, they're now threatening to shut down a second waterway, one on the Red Sea, to blockade Saudi oil exports through that route. So that just adds to this moment. And essentially, you know, the Trump administration is on the precipice of all out war again with Iran.

[Nicole Wallace]

Jerome o', Hartling, your thoughts to the developments of the weekend and where David has sort of taken the risk for America and for the men and women of the military.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

What I'd say, first of all, the death of those service members are tragic and my heart goes out to their families. I've experienced this before. But can I try and go to the bigger picture and what's happening, what I think is going on right now? And you got to take a look at the operational campaign of both nations. So instead of merely destroying weapons, the US Bombing things and striking things, the US now appears to be attacking the systems and encircling the cities that allow Iran to regenerate military power. That's also an attempt to reduce their societal will because the Trump administration believes there's a split between the Republican Guards and the ayatollah and the citizens. So they are bombing places like Bandar Abbas and Isfahan, transportation hubs, bridges, fuel distribution sites. And that's not, yes, that's separating the IRGC from its support system, but it's also increasing economic pressure. So they think on the Iranian government and they believe they're trying to force a strategic decision that would present Iran's leadership with that decision on whether they continue the conflict or go back to the negotiating table. Now, on the other hand, Iran, they're keeping the straits closed. They're continuing to deplete US Defense capabilities, especially the rockets or the air Defense systems that we have in the region. They're dividing the US from their allies in the region, as we've seen in Jordan and Qatar and Kuwait and the uae. They are hurting us tactically because they know that the US Will focus on individual combat deaths, as we did this weekend. Three combat deaths. While there have been thousands killed inside of Iran, they're opening new fronts for the proxies like David just mentioned, especially the Houthis in the Bab El Mandab Strait. That could close another waterway and could cause even more economic problems. So what the Iranians are doing while we're bombing locations, they're trading space for time and they're putting our allies and internal elements in the United States against us. So when you look at not the what that they're doing, but the why they're doing it, it becomes pretty clear to me if I'm analyzing this conflict, that Iran still has the upper hand.

[Nicole Wallace]

What does that mean, General Hartling, in terms of how long this could go on and what American military families are really facing, not just this summer, but in the coming months?

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

Yeah, well, we've heard the president and some of his advisors proclaim, or at least, you know, the ones that are not saying it openly, they're saying that they're thinking about putting more military force in the area. Nicole, I tell you, you know, I've said this 100 times, Iran is a big country. It's three times larger than Iraq. And we had some challenges inside of Iraq with a very large force. To go into a place like Iran with not only its size but its population density and also the kind of terrain they have and the inability to set up logistics hub to support us with a massive scale, you would need literally hundreds of thousands of soldiers and Marines to do whatever the plan might call for. And truthfully, I don't know what that plan would call for because you have a population base of 90 million that is going to be a whole lot tougher than any uprising that we, that we fought against in Iraq. So this is why there's a lot of military folks who have been war gaming Iran for the last 30 years and have said we need to be very careful about getting into a land war with the, with the Iranian regime.

[Nicole Wallace]

I think that the glow Ben Rhodes of the Venezuela operation, which a lot of good, solid reporting has suggested, emboldened Donald Trump's decision to defy even his usually very sycophantic and obedient advisors who did ultimately green light America's involvement here is gone. I think that Republicans are as loud as Democrats in this specific instance about the problems with being where we are, which is not holding sort of the cards, if you will, against Iran. And I think the JCPOA is looking better and better by the hour. I am sure no one involved in that feels any joy in that because it's terrible for America and it's terrible for the military. But what are your thoughts?

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, look, I think to Bill and Sing, General Herling said the reason we did the JCPOA instead of this is because it was so predictable that this would happen. It's just better to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon with a diplomatic agreement than this. And Trump couldn't even get something approximating the JCPOA when he was trying to do that with this MOU in part because the Iranians didn't trust him because he'd been bombed. They've been bombed multiple times, and they've been engaged in negotiations. Trump wants the appearance of a military victory that he's not going to get, because the reality is, strategically, the United States has already lost. The Iranian regime is in place. They demonstrate their capacity to shut the Strait of Hormuz. And the nuclear fuel that they have is not something you can bomb from the air. So, as General Hertling said, if you actually want to go in and bolt by bolt, dismantle that program and seize that fuel, you're going to need a massive military force. And I don't think Americans are ready to sign up for it. The only thing I want to say, Nicole, is this issue of underreporting or just not telling us what's happening is something that I've been focused on for months. I think General Hurling has probably had this and, David, the same conversations I've had with people in the region who said, look, the damage to these U.S. bases and facilities is far greater than what we're being told. I used to be in charge of communications from the US Government, including the Pentagon, on military operations. It is extraordinary to me, and it is shameful on the US Congress not forcing this information out, that Americans don't even know the extent of the injured among our service personnel, the extent of the damage that we taxpayers are going to have to pay for to US Bases, facilities, diplomatic facilities that have been attacked. We don't know the damage that had been done to our Gulf allies because they have a clampdown on information. Trump is desperate to cover up the cost of the war that he started because it's absolutely catastrophic. And that tells you a lot. If you can't be transparent with people about what's happening. It's probably not going well. And they have really no strategy here other than to escalate and hope for some capitulation. And there's one thing we've learned about the Iranian regime, not just in this war, but over decades, is that these are not the kind of guys that are going to capitulate. They don't care if their people suffer. That's part of what we don't like about them. But the reality is if it's a contest between who's going to blink first, if the global economy is coming to a grinding halt because of these waterways being shot and Americans don't like seeing service members killed, which breaks our heart. I mean, Isabella Gonzalez is 19 years old. Just look at that picture and think of the life that was denied to her because Donald Trump chose to do this catastrophic war. I just don't see how escalation is going to bring about a different result than what happened in February and March.

[Nicole Wallace]

You know, David, pick up on the point of a cover up. I mean, we know how desperately Pete Hegseth has worked to keep the press out of the Pentagon. I imagine that this far away, those efforts are on overdrive, especially in a, in a war zone. Tell me what you understand and what your reporting shows in terms of the degree of the COVID up.

[David Rhode]

So we've heard for weeks about this massive amount of damage just done for the infrastructure at these bases. To be fair, CNN had a story where they used satellite imagery that talked about the numbers. It's just dozens of bases that have been damaged. Eric Schmidt, who was one of the reporters who was subpoenaed by the Trump administration, had the reporting today about dozens of casualties, not just from this weekend, but consistently being hidden by the administration. And this is again because of ballistic missiles. There was a ballistic missile attack on a base closer to the October 7th attacks on Israel. Our former colleague Courtney Kuby at NBC News reported about all these concussions that soldiers were getting. Our colleagues now at msnow are trying to get more information about it, but the Pentagon keeps downplaying this. They say, oh, if people return quickly to duty, you know, they're not seriously injured. And I just think that's all part of the COVID up of the cost of this financially and on a human scale. And then lastly, what alarms me about this successful strike in Jordan is, you know, they could have been lucky and they hit this barracks where American service members were sleeping and then sadly killed. But Russia, I'm sure, is happy to be sent, you know, sharing satellite imagery that might help them in their targeting. There's a concern that China would want to be sending the propellant they need for these ballistic missiles. But just back to your initial point. There was an assessment by the CIA of up to 2,000 ballistic missiles having survived the war. So they have hundreds of these missiles, many more drones, and, you know, they're in a very good position right now. And I just agree. I don't see a clear strategy coming from this administration. And it just seems to be getting worse.

[Nicole Wallace]

This is also the point when Trump usually does something outrageous to distract from how badly things are going in Iran. So we'll dig a little deeper into latest reporting about the public opinion about what is happening, just in light of what we do know, which it sounds like is a very incomplete picture. So no one's going anywhere. Also ahead for us TikTok about 100 days until the midterm elections. A new poll shows that anyone paying attention to anything feels that Democrats are much more excited and motivated to vote than Republicans. How do Democrats capitalize in close contest? Plus, oops, he did it again. Donald Trump has embarrassed America on the world stage at the World cup as a country he insulted took the game's top prize. We'll show you what that looked like. And later in the show, new developments on the DOJ's war on a free press, including seizing phone records of a journalist's mother to keep reporting about Donald Trump's Qatari gifted Air Force One out of the newspaper. All those stories and much more when Deadline White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.

[David Rhode]

Yeah.

[Ben Rhodes]

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[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, I mean, this war in many ways is a perfect storm, Nicole, because it's a foreign policy catastrophe. It's a broken campaign promise. And it's at the nexus of the most important issue in American domestic politics, which is affordability, because it's driving up the price not just at the pump, but of fertilizer, of helium, of vital inputs to the American global economy. I mean, across the board, there's just nothing good about this. A striking thing to me, Nicole, also, is there's really no constituency for this in the United States. Like, who are the people that were clamoring for this war? Like, who are the people that a few weeks ago thought re escalating this was a good idea. Trump is just doing this to satisfy, I think, kind of his own vanity, his own ego, his own desire not to have been seen to be losing a war. I think another thing, though, that's alarming to me, Nicole, is how little he seems to care about public opinion. I mean, there should actually be kind of a healthy check on A president to shift course when it's so overwhelmingly against you in terms of what the views of the American people are. And if this is a foreshadowing of what's to come for the next two and a half years, Donald Trump, I mean, look, as a Democrat, you know, sure, the Democrats will win more votes probably because of this war, but I don't take a lot of comfort in the fact that Donald Trump is kind of signaling that he may do anything, including launch this or more wars without regard to the views of the American people. At some point, if he is not demonstrably reined in by the United States Congress, he is showing us that he will continue to put the lives of Americans in danger, the global economy in danger, America's standing in the world, which is, you know, taking a massive hit from this. So ultimately, people are going to have to take steps in Congress to rein this in because he doesn't seem to care about public opinion.

[Nicole Wallace]

Yeah, it's interesting to try to reverse engineer this and figure out who is enthusiastic about it. And, and even if you, I mean, can't even name anyone, just trying to think on the spot, we've had a couple of cheerleaders over in the conservative media world and a couple of cheerleaders in the Republican ranks in the Senate. Not many. But if you support being there and you tried to reverse argue it, lying about the number of injuries, lying about the progress we've made, and refusing to settle on a narrative for why we're there seems deadly, even to enthusiasts of being at war with Iran, even if there are only 10 of them.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

General Hartling, it seems to me, Nicole, it's more of a plot though, too. And I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but when you set the conditions for something like this, when you take out the Pentagon press corps, when you continuously lie to the American people about things great and small, when you don't get the support, as Ben just said, of the American people, I mean, how many times do Americans need to learn that lesson? When you don't have the support of the American people or the Congress of the United States or in fact, your allies that you haven't even addressed, you're probably not going to do very well in something that's not an existential threat to the United States. When you put your sons and daughters, like the two pictures you showed a little bit a little while ago, in harm's way and they come home to a family that loves them not the way they went away, that in and of itself is a, is A requirement for persuading America to support any kind of conflict. But what has happened, I'm going to go a little bit further and perhaps not a whole lot deeper, but say, you know, this has been something the United States has been doing for decades. They've used the military as the, as the arm of first resort instead of the last resort, because we are a powerful military. And but sometimes when it goes to the extreme and you don't get the support of the American people and you do it in an ad hoc basis, even as reported, against the advice of some of your main counsel in the White House, and you don't have a National Security Council, and you're doing it on a whim because you think you can do all these things in a great way when you really don't know what the military does, it leads to disaster. And that's what we're seeing right now.

[Nicole Wallace]

David, what is your sense of whether there is any, if there are any red? I feel dumb asking this question, but I feel like it needs to be asked. In light of the loss of life, in light of the very real evidence of a cover up of the extent of the injuries and the damage to American bases, is there any indication, any flashing yellow warning signs for any Republicans in Congress at any level to try to find out what the hell's going on?

[David Rhode]

Look, the red line, and the thing that should alarm them is the midterm elections in November. And the Iranians know this. They know that they can pressure Trump. They just have to sort of hang in there between now and November 3rd, drive gas prices up, make him look weak and sadly. And you keep showing these pictures and look, every loss of life in the American military is a tragedy. But again, these two young faces that we've been looking at today, that loss of life has an impact here and it's heartbreaking, but it's just for what? So again, when this country was attacked on September 11 years ago, there was a rally around the flag effect, but there was just no sort of broad case made to wage this war. And now it's dragging on and it's costing these lives. There are still 50,000American service members in the Middle east fighting this war, 50,000 of them and all their families. So it fades from the headlines when there aren't deaths like this. But it's, and it's a lot, it's about a lot more than gas prices. And it's just a completely preventable tragedy in my view.

[Nicole Wallace]

David Rhode, thank you so much for your reporting on this. Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, thank you so much for your wisdom and your candor on this. Ben Rhodes sticks around after the break. The anti Trump messaging that may be the driving force motivating Democrats to vote in November. Look at what that sounds like next. You know that thing where you get an amazing pair of shoes at a really great price and want to tell everyone about it?

[Cornell Belcher]

Yeah.

[Nicole Wallace]

So do we. Here at Designer Shoe Warehouse. We'll give you something to brag about, like the latest styles from brands you love or the trends everyone's obsessing over

[Angie Hicks]

or shoes that make you feel like, well, you.

[Nicole Wallace]

So go ahead, show off a little. Buying shoes that get you and prices that get your budget. Head to your DSW store or dsw.com today. DSW. Let us surprise you.

[Angie Hicks]

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[Nicole Wallace]

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[Angie Hicks]

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[Nicole Wallace]

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[Angie Hicks]

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[Nicole Wallace]

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[Angie Hicks]

And that's too late.

[Nicole Wallace]

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[Angie Hicks]

We don't just alert, we stop crime before it starts.

[Nicole Wallace]

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[Ben Rhodes]

code SXM Outdoor deterrence requires a Simplisafe Active Guard Outdoor Protection plan starting at $49.99 a month.

[Nicole Wallace]

Visit simplisafe.com licenses for alarm license information.

[Ben Rhodes]

Tennessee 2012

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

At A Moment when his war spirals out of control and prices for American families climb higher and higher, Instead of focusing on the nation's needs, as always, he nurses his grievances.

[David Rhode]

As always, he forces the rest of

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

us to help him process his shame.

[Nicole Wallace]

As always, he centers his own fear

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

of the accountability that he will face when we win decisively this fall.

[Nicole Wallace]

It's difficult to argue with any of that. That's Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff exposing. For one thing, the party of Donald Trump is offering to their voters less than four months ahead of the midterms. And maybe that is why the latest findings in the Washington Post are revealing a stark enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters. Right now, according to the post, Democrats are 10 points, 10 times more likely to be certain to vote this year than Republicans, larger than their 2 point edge in the year 2018 and more than 7 in 10 Democrats say it is, quote, more important to vote in 2026 and in previous midterm elections. That compares with just over half of Republicans. Americans are also much more worried about their finances than they were eight years ago. This year, 40% of registered voters say they are not as well off as when Donald Trump took office, compared with 13% who said the same thing in November 2018. I want to bring in political analysts, the former Senator Claire McCaskill. Also joining us, Democratic pollster and political analyst Cornell Belcher. And Ben Rhodes is still with us. Cornell, what do you see in these numbers?

[Cornell Belcher]

It's really interesting. You know, Nicole, we've talked about it before how, you know, especially off your elections, they're really about whose base turns out right. First and foremost, you've got to energize and turn out, turn out your bay. And when you look at data, not only data in Washington Post, but I'm also picking up and reminded it, we ask it number either how motivated are you to vote on the scale of 0 to 10 pound duty at which is that Democratic voters are tending to be more, much more enthusiastic and see the stakes as higher this election year than we've, than we've seen in prior years. And Nicole, it's not just this is in the polling, this is when the polling actually matches up with real life. Because you'll also notice, Nicole, that if you look at turnout patterns from primaries or special elections this year, you've seen more sporadic Democrats turning out voting and more Democrats in primaries this time around than that surge in more Democrats, more sporadic voting Democrats helped Democrats outperform previous election analysis in almost every race that you've seen of consequence since 2020.

[Nicole Wallace]

Claire, you've been tracking this intensity, the intensive emotions for and against Donald Trump and for and against Democrats, I think since about the week after his reelection. Tell me how you see this.

[Angie Hicks]

Well, Trump's doing the heavy lifting here. This enthusiasm is really, we can lay it at his feet because on a real life level, whether it's gas prices or the farmers across this country that are scratching their heads going what wait, our markets are gone, we can't get health care, we can't afford our input costs, they're the ones that are saying they're not so excited about voting now. They were all Republican voters for Donald Trump, not all of them, but the vast majority of them were. So all of the policy stuff is lining up against him. But really, Nicole, what's driving a lot of this enthusiasm is the outrageous stuff he does, the stuff that makes you Just go, I can't stand this guy. The narcissistic behavior, the hogging the attention from the Spain World cup winners, the ballroom, the putting his name on stuff, the ridiculous thing on the reflecting pool for most Americans, they're going, okay, this guy's nuts. This guy is not focusing on leading our country in ways that will help us and make us more secure. And that's the whipped cream and cherry on top of the war and the tariffs and healthcare costs, wrapping it up with a big bow of his corruption and graft, that his family are becoming multi billionaires on the backs of the Oval Office. They are all enriching themselves. They are feeding at a trough like pigs have never fed at a trough. So it is really, I think all of that is what's driving enthusiasm. You know, what's keeping me up at night. How do we sustain this to 2028 when Trump is no longer on the ballot? I feel pretty good about the midterms. I worry about 2028 because those two years, it's going to be very hard for the Democrats to get a lot done and I think the voters expectations are going to be high. But he's still going to be in the White House and he's still going to have a veto pin and there's still not going to be 60 votes on the Democratic side. So now I'm not as worried about the midterms as I am about 2028.

[Nicole Wallace]

I mean, Ben, I want to come back to your earlier point. I see the politics the way Cornell and Claire do, but I see the flaws in our democratic system, I think the way you do. I think that Trump knows that the war in Iran is deeply unpopular. I don't know that anyone tells him, but I think because he was so deeply against wars when he ran in 16, 20 and 24, he actually agrees with the detractors of a forever war, which is what he enter the country into. But when they watch the brazen theft, the stealing from the American people, letting the boys steal from the American people, letting his son steal through shady business deals and government contracts, I wonder what you wonder, whether they have a plan to upend free and fair and secure elections.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, everything he's doing suggests someone who doesn't care about public opinion. I mean, Nicole, announcing essentially an insider trading scheme where hedge funds can buy access to true social posts early so they can make money off of trades on Trump's war. I mean, it's a policy designed in a laboratory to be deconstructed by Jon Ossoff. And motivate Democratic voters. Look, Trump's midterm election strategy is not to lower prices, is not to even talk about affordability. Trump told us his midterm election strategy last week. It's to steal the election. It's to say that there's a combination of foreign interference and domestic fraud. He'll try everything he can to disrupt voting itself. So we have to be worried about ICE agents or military even at polling sites based on some trumped up fake threat. We have to worry about ballot boxes being seized before votes can be counted. We have to worry about Donald Trump saying the minute the elections are over that they were stolen. And this time around, here's the Justice Department led by Todd Blanche and Kash Patel, people who will go along with that and echo whatever he says. He's got compliant. He's got a guy that's in line to be the Director of National Intelligence who won't even say that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election. This is happening before our eyes is not a conspiracy theory. He gave a primetime address last week telling us that his midterm election strategy is to steal the midterm elections, not to contest them and win them for Republicans. And so I think, number one, we have to be calling that out and telling people what to expect so that they see it before it happens. Number two, we have to fortify state elections. Right. The elections are still run by the states in this country, not the federal government. And we're going to need to be driving that principle home. Number three, I hope the Democrats win by a decisive enough margin that it just looks ridiculous and absurd for him to be contesting this at all that matters. Nicole, this is a 1020 vote majority for the Democrats in the House. That's one thing compared to two or three late returns coming in from California while Trump is trying to do this. But make no mistake, the crisis in our election is not 2028, it's going to be in 2026. And he's told us that. And we have to be ready for it and have strategies to deal with it.

[Nicole Wallace]

Yeah, And I think to tie together, I mean, I'll show you all the, you know, dismissive things he said about people's very real and growing concerns about the economy. He doesn't care. He thinks it's a, quote, hoax fabricated by Democrats. I'll show you that. I have to sneak in a break before we do that. Also had in one closely watched Senate race. Will tell you about the Republican candidate. You can't even muster the biggest dollar donors in the Republican Party to get on board with his candidacy. Lots more politics ahead. Don't go anywhere.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

The word affordability is a con job by the Democrats. You know, they always have a hoax. The new word is affordability. The word affordability is a Democrat scam.

[Ben Rhodes]

You know what I really love?

[Nicole Wallace]

I love the inflation.

[David Rhode]

I don't think about American financial situation.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

I don't think about anybody.

[Nicole Wallace]

Claire Cornell and Ben are back with us. I mean, Claire, that is an example of a few different things. One, the argument Ben just made about how Trump is sort of a post political president. He doesn't care about his political standing either because he doesn't care about plundering the Republican Party and or because he doesn't plan to preside over free and fair elections in the United States of America. It's also evidence of something else. I mean, it's either like a real detachment from what used to be his calling cards or this political touch, but a real disdain for the MAGA voter. And it was on primetime full display Thursday night's address where he wanted the MAGA voter to believe that President Barack Obama presided over a free and fair election in which he prevailed in 2016, as did President Joe Biden in 2024. Free and fair election in which Donald Trump won in 2024. But only he, Donald Trump presided over a screwed up election that couldn't be protected or fortified against foreign influence. That was the story. As Bill Barr said, bullshit. But that was the story he fed the MAGA base Thursday night on the economy. He's telling his own voters who are struggling as much as people who voted for Kamala Harris or anybody else, that what they're seeing and feeling isn't real, that affordability is a hoax. It is to me, sort of the story of this moment of the Trump presidency.

[Angie Hicks]

Yeah, he's created the perception that somehow our elections are not secure. Our elections are plenty secure. They are the most secure in the world. That's why we have traveled all over the world to teach people how to conduct elections. They are not centralized. They are on purpose at the state level where everyone, local election authorities have much more control than anybody who could ever wave a magic wand or flip a lever. So it is fascinating to me that he is feeding them that the elections are not secure. And maybe they are believing that because of him. But he can't feed them that. There's not an affordability problem. I mean, I looked at the numbers this morning and a huge number of Americans I think is close to half say that they are not better off financially than they were when Trump took office. They're worse off. They are struggling. And that is real. And he can't talk his way out of that. I think that's why there is this disconnect. And make no mistake about it, I completely agree with Ben. I'm not saying I'm not worried about the election midterms being safe and secure and without voter interference. I was talking more about turnout. I think turnout will be very strong in the midterms. I'm worried about turnout after Trump is no longer agitating everyone the way he agitates them every single day. I do think, however, the courts will hold when it comes to keeping our elections secure. And when you tell somebody not to do something, guess what they want to do. They want to vote more every day. When he's telling people your vote won't count, the vote is rigged. People are going, okay, watch me, watch me, watch me. Make it count.

[Nicole Wallace]

Cornell, let me put those economy numbers up that Claire's talking about. 54% of Americans, according to the Washington Post, are worried about the economy and high prices. I think it doubles just about every other issue that they ask about. Next highest is immigration. And below that, 20% of Americans are worried about Iran, Israel, another foreign policy. What do you make of the opportunity to talk to that many Americans, you know, 54% of Americans who are dissatisfied with Trump's economy?

[Cornell Belcher]

Well, I think it's an important number. But, and look this CNBC poll, I think it was out last week. Most Americans actually blame Trump for, for the downturn in the economy. And a number that I saw in a poll which will make all of my Biden White House friends roll their eyes is that now Americans think the economy was better and Biden was handling economy better than they do Trump now. And the other interesting number here from the Washington Post poll, Nicole, that I think we have to pay attention to, especially if I were Republican, I'd be paying a lot of attention to it is, you know, white non college or these blue collar voters, if you will, were, were a base sort of driving force behind Trump's coalition. And, and right now in that Washington Post poll, if you look at white non college voters, 54% of them disapprove of the job that, that, that Donald Trump is doing with the economy. So he's lost a big swath of what has been his base of support around really important issues. And none of those issues being, well, I would argue this cultural issues are more important. But for the sake of today's conversation, very few of those issues have been more important and central than the economy. And when he's losing white non college voters on their approval of his handling of the economy, it's a real problem for Republicans. Now if I can get in really quickly, one thing on what Ben was saying, you know, there was a famous episode of Game of Thrones where Cersei blew up the September and Queen Margaret in the end realized Cersei wasn't coming to face trial because she didn't think there was going to be no consequence. I feel the same way about what's happening with Trump. Like Trump is doing things that Nicole makes no sense. If you in fact think you're going to be held accountable. I don't think he thinks he's going to be held accountable. He's going to do something.

[Nicole Wallace]

Yeah. Well, if you look at what the Supreme Court did in granting him immunity, some of it is age delusion and that woman who prints out all the nice tweets about him, but some of it is that the Supreme Court has all but told him he has complete immunity. So I'm sure that takes up an outsized piece of his brain and whatever's there of his conscience. To be continued, my friends, Claire McCaskill, Cornell Belcher, Ben Rhodes, thank you all so much for spending time with me today. After the break, the judge reviewing the Trump backed merger of two media giants is saying, no, no, no, no, no, not so fast. We'll bring you that important update next. Today, a judge ordered a temporary halt to the Paramount Warner Brothers merger, marking the first major hurdle for the Ellison family's attempt to consolidate Trump friendly media power. The 14 day restraining order is in response to a lawsuit filed by California's Attorney General Rob Bonta and 11 other states claiming that the proposed merger violates antitrust laws. Fonta said this in reaction to today's ruling. Quote, this is a critical first win in our case to ensure this mega merger never sees the light of day. History tells the tale of what happens when a few people have great power over markets that are central to Americans lives. Fewer opportunities for more people, worse products and services for all people. With our lawsuit, we're fighting for a free and fair market and a thriving film and television industry that serves creatives and audiences alike. We have a full tank of gas the law on our side and look forward to continuing to make our case. We'll stay on top of all those developments for you when we come back today. From wanting nothing to do with Spain just a few days ago to not being able to get off the stage with Spain and stay out of their pictures yesterday. Donald Trump's embarrassing face plant over the weekend on the world stage is our next story.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

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[Ben Rhodes]

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