“A week of bad headlines”

Summary

Podcast Summary: “A Week of Bad Headlines”
Deadline: White House with Nicolle Wallace, MS NOW
Release Date: March 9, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode of “Deadline: White House,” host Nicolle Wallace gathers seasoned national security, economic, and journalism experts to break down a tumultuous week for the Trump administration. The show focuses primarily on the U.S. war in Iran—now just over a week old—and dives into the grim economic, military, and political fallout facing the United States. The episode features in-depth analysis from New York Times diplomatic correspondent Michael Crowley, former CIA Director John Brennan (NBC News national security analyst), and Charlotte Howard, Executive Editor and New York Bureau Chief at The Economist. Throughout, the conversation weaves together war strategy, domestic impact, administration messaging, the risks of escalation, and deteriorating public trust.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. War in Iran: Status Update and Human Cost

• Nicolle Wallace opens with a stark overview: After just one week of conflict, eight U.S. service members are dead; nearly 2,000 total casualties (including at least 260 children) reported across the Middle East; and a new, even more hardline Supreme Leader (Mujtaba Khamenei) has taken power in Iran.
  [01:08]
• The U.S. has not ruled out a draft. Trump administration is entertaining ideas of deploying a “small contingent” of ground troops, not a mass invasion.
  [01:08–03:31]
• “We face what the Wall Street Journal calls the worst energy crisis since the 1970s.” — Nicolle Wallace [01:08]

2. Economic Fallout: Energy Crisis and Staggering Inflation

• Oil prices surge to over $100/barrel, up 16% in a week, causing spikes in gas, groceries, and other goods domestically.
  [03:31] [17:54]
• Economic pessimism and a recent poor jobs report compound woes: 92,000 jobs lost in February—before the war even started.
  [05:44]
• Michael Crowley ties back to Trump’s decades-long fixation with Iran and “oil humiliation” narratives of the 1970s—paralleling current events (“vindicating that supposed humiliation ... replicating some of those economic conditions.”) [05:44]
• “Americans notice ... If the prices go up at the pump. So there's a real political pressure here, I think, on him now to do what he can to lower those prices.” — Michael Crowley [06:56]
• Charlotte Howard notes the contradiction: “It kind of doesn't make sense for the White House to be ... not ruling out troops on the ground, not ruling out a draft, and on the other hand, the president saying that we're wrapping this up ... But actually I think they are related because ... there have been a lot of pretty tough headlines and developments for this administration in the last several days.” [11:26]
• The global nature of oil means U.S. consumers are exposed despite domestic production gains. Trump’s energy “dominance” narrative collapses amid global supply disruption.
  [16:54]

3. Lack of Coherent Strategy and Messaging

• Panelists unanimously critique the administration’s failure to articulate a clear rationale, objectives, or stable endgame for the war.
  • “He's offered no coherent explanation to the American people of precisely why now, nor has he offered a plan for a more stable Iran, nor has he offered a really compelling economic answer.” — Michael Crowley [07:34]
  • “All of his steps don't take into account the second, third and fourth order effects ... I think he's trying to figure out exactly the next steps. He's not ruling anything out ... These are the things that should have been thought of ... before the operation took place.” — John Brennan [08:24]
• Trump’s decision-making is described as reactive, “hour by hour,” relying on “vibes” and the image of toughness rather than consistent policy.

4. Domestic Division and Political Backlash

• Trump touts high gas prices as a sign of victory and blames “fools” for doubting him. His surrogates refuse to rule out a draft—even when pressed on friendly media.
  [07:12] [10:58]
• The war becomes a wedge inside the GOP, with disputes among Trump, Capitol Hill allies, and right-wing media pundits: “Rubio seemed to dig for himself up on Capitol Hill that ignited a war of words with Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly on one side and the rest of the MAGA figures on the other ... seemingly even Trump has said to Reuters, we've outsourced our decision making.” — Nicolle Wallace [14:16]

5. International and Domestic Security Threats

• Bombshell reports break during the program:
  • The White House is blocking a DHS/FBI/NCTC intelligence bulletin warning of “elevated threats” from Iranian proxies on U.S. soil.
    [33:09]
  • “If this reporting is accurate, I cannot stress enough how much this absolutely ties not just one, but like both hands behind your back at a time that it is critical to have domestic law enforcement acting on this intelligence to keep people safe.” — Andrew Weissman, legal analyst [34:47]
  • “I was the director of the National Counterterrorism Center ... we would ... put together these bulletins ... and push it out to the Joint Terrorism Task Force ... The fact that we are in a war ... and the White House stops [these] bulletins ... is so, you know, politically corrupt ...” — John Brennan [37:51]
• New fears about Iranian sleeper cells, intercepted “operational triggers,” asymmetric warfare, and purges of experienced Iran experts from the FBI are discussed.
  [36:42–42:54]

6. Administration Dynamics and Dangerous Precedent

• Charlotte Howard points to the lack of “guardrails” in Trump’s second term:
  • “In this second Trump term, it's clear that he has advisors around him who say yes and are not there to challenge him, but to enable him ... I think he very consciously didn’t want that in this term and has chosen people around him who are much more willing to say to him, we understand what you want to do. Let's figure out how we can do it. And spend a lot less time ... telling him how things could go wrong.” [23:02]
  • The administration is emboldened by quick wins in Venezuela but underestimated Iran’s complexity.
• Michael Crowley highlights Trump’s tendency to test the limits of power—over business, law, and the military—with little blowback from elites. [28:56]
• John Brennan: “We have tremendous capabilities. We can bring them to bear in the battlefield. But that doesn't mean you're going to change the ... political activities in a country ... So, again, the U.S. military has extraordinary capability and they're showing ... courage ... but ... that's a far, far cry from actually being able to change developments on the ground ... We should have learned the lesson long before this operation got underway.” [30:36]

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Memorable Quotes

• Nicolle Wallace: “Just over one week into Donald Trump’s war in Iran ... almost 2,000 people have been killed ... Officials are worried that Trump's war has opened a Pandora’s box with no clear endgame.”
  [01:08]

• Michael Crowley: “You have high oil prices, you have real threats to the broader economy that could lead to that stagflationary picture ... The thing that is most in Donald Trump's control to bring oil prices down is to end this war very quickly, as quickly as possible.”
  [05:44]

• John Brennan: “Donald Trump ... has been very tactical. All of his steps don't take into account the second, third, and fourth order effects. ... Not just one day at a time, but almost one hour at a time.”
  [08:24]

• Charlotte Howard: “It almost feels like a very compressed, warp speed version of Iraq ... The fact that the Iranian regime was not capitulating ... I think it’s quite plausible that [declaring victory] is a response to the fallout he’s starting to see.”
  [11:26]

• Andrew Weissman: “If this reporting is accurate, I cannot stress enough how much this absolutely ties not just one, but, like both hands behind your back at a time that it is critical to have domestic law enforcement acting on this intelligence to keep people safe.”
  [34:47]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:08 | Update on war in Iran: casualties, energy crisis, regime change | | 03:31 | Trump admin officials rationalize energy crisis, ‘short term pain, long term gain’ | | 05:44 | Michael Crowley analyzes economic impact and Trump’s strategic mindset | | 07:12 | Campaign messaging vs. market and policy reality | | 08:24 | John Brennan outlines administration decision-making flaws | | 10:58 | Domestic political anxiety: draft, boots on the ground, inconsistent messaging | | 16:54 | Global oil interdependence; myth of U.S. energy “independence” | | 23:02 | Charlotte Howard details inner circle changes, lack of guardrails, influence of prior wins (e.g., Venezuela) | | 26:33 | John Brennan refutes admin's shifting rationales for the war, questions about using nuclear threat as a justification | | 28:56 | Trump’s aggressive use of state power; lack of dissent among elites | | 30:36 | Military might vs. political outcomes; lessons from Iraq & Afghanistan | | 33:09 | Breaking: White House blocks DHS/FBI/NCTC security bulletin on Iran-linked threats at home | | 34:47 | Weissman explains the dangers of restricting intelligence to local law enforcement | | 37:51 | Brennan details how threat bulletins usually function and why current behavior is dangerous | | 41:16 | Asymmetric warfare, sleeper cells, and purged FBI expertise on Iran | | 42:54 | Weissman: political expediency overriding threat communication endangers American lives |

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Tone & Takeaways

• The conversation is grave, urgent, and unsparing in its criticism—marked by seasoned experts expressing concern over a hastily-launched, poorly-justified war with mounting blowback.
• There is deep skepticism toward administration explanations and alarm at the political and homeland security risks.
• Panelists emphasize both the human and political costs, pointing out dangerous precedents for process, decision-making, and the politicization of intelligence.
• Despite diverse perspectives, there is consensus: the current crisis is both the result of and an amplifier for deeply troubling trends in governance and national security.

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For Listeners:

This episode of “Deadline: White House” provides a sobering, multifaceted look at the intersection of foreign policy, the economy, national security, and presidential leadership as the U.S. finds itself enmeshed in a dangerous, open-ended war with Iran. The discussion crystallizes how the consequences are echoing from military bases to grocery stores to the broader fabric of American democracy.

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End of Summary

Transcript

[Michael Crowley]

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[Nicole Wallace]

It's four o' clock in New York. Just over one week into Donald Trump's war in Iran. Here's where things stand Eight US Service members have died. The White House did not rule out a draft. We face what the Wall Street Journal calls the worst energy Crisis since the 1970s and the Iranian regime has replaced one brutal dictator with that brutal dictator's son. The war continues to intensify and escalate with apocalyptic scenes of destruction unfolding in Tehran over the weekend. So far across the Middle east, almost 2,000 people have been killed, including at least 260 children. The Pentagon announced the loss of a seventh service member over the weekend in an attack in Saudi Arabia. He was identified earlier today as 26 year old Sergeant Benjamin Pennington. He was from Kentucky, an eighth in Kuwait, died in a non combat medical emergency. He was identified as 46 year old Major Sorefly Davias from New York. The death toll could continue to rise if more US Ground troops are sent to Iran. NBC News is reporting that Donald Trump privately expressed serious interest in boots on the ground. According to that reporting, Trump's quote, interest in deploying ground troops has not focused on a large scale ground invasion of Iran, but rather on the idea of a small contingent of U.S. troops that would be used for specific strategic purposes, end quote. The economic fallout from the first week has been swift and has already proven to be dire. Wall Street Journal reports this quote, the most severe shock to energy markets since the 1970s is cascading through the world economy. The disruption quickly fed into higher gasoline and diesel prices at the pump and higher mortgage rates and borrowing costs for the US Government, endangering Donald Trump's economic priorities. Oil prices are soaring, reaching more than $100 a barrel per period today. It's the first time that has happened in almost four years. And it is thanks to the fact that the war has essentially grounded the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a halt. In response to that, Donald Trump told Fox News yesterday this quote, these ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts. There's nothing to be afraid of, end quote. Here's how Trump administration officials are trying to explain away the startling jump in oil prices.

[John Brennan]

The other side here is that once this is over, then oil prices are going to be sustainably lower and they are in a safer position for years, if not decades to come.

[Charlotte Howard]

Yes, we have a, we have a temporary period of elevated energy prices, but it will not be long. In the worst case, this is weeks, this is not months, and it leads to a much better place. What you're seeing is emotional reactions and fear that this is a long term war. This is not a long term war. It's a temporary movement with respect to

[Nicole Wallace]

what's happening with gas prices right now. This is a short term disruption for the long term gain of taking out the rogue Iranian terrorist regime. That message was echoed by Donald Trump who posted this quote, short term oil prices is a very small price to pay for USA and world safety and peace switching to all caps. Only fools would think differently. The promise of a long term gain though, runs into major problems. First, the Iranian regime shows no signs of backing down. Mujtaba Khamenei is the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khomeini. He was chosen to be the new supreme leader, cementing the hardline theocratic rule in the country. Officials are worried that Trump's war has opened a Pandora's box with no clear endgame. New York Times reports this quote. Interviews with dozens of officials in the United States, Israel, Iran and across the Middle east suggest that while American and Israeli military capabilities have proven to be overwhelming during the war's first seven days, the violence that has metastasized across the region created could yield all manner of fraught outcomes. That is where we start today with some of our favorite reporters and friends. New York Times diplomatic correspondent Michael Crowley's here. Also joining us, former director of the CIA. Our senior national security and intelligence analyst John Brennan is back. And with me at the table, executive Editor and New York Bureau Chief for the Economist, Charlotte Howard. Is here. Let me ask you to start with what you could not make up, a more devastating sort of splash of economic headlines here in this country. Take me through the economic picture today.

[Michael Crowley]

Well, in the past few days, you've had, as you say, a pretty grim picture emerge, both with a jobs report that was much worse than people expected, a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, and then this startling continued rise in the oil price over the weekend. And what's so interesting about this, both in the short term and taking the bigger picture, is that Donald Trump's view on Iran was really forged in the 1970s and 1980s. You can go back to interviews with him there, where he was very outspoken about the humiliation that America faced as a result of the Iran hostage crisis, as well as the oil pressure that came from price shocks in the 1970s. And here you have him, in some ways, in vindicating that supposed humiliation of the 1970s, replicating some of those economic conditions. You have high oil prices, you have real threats to the broader economy that could lead to that stagflationary picture. So the thing that is most in Donald Trump's control to bring oil prices down is to end this war very quickly, as quickly as possible. The idea that tankers should show guts is sort of an interesting question of framing this as moral courage, when the ships will just get blown up. Right. That's not why they're going through the straight line.

[Nicole Wallace]

The gas doesn't make it to the bumps if they get blown up either.

[Michael Crowley]

Exactly. So it's sort of in a logical framing, in terms of toughness, what is a security and economic decision. So I think that Americans notice, of course, Right. If the prices go up at the pump. So there's a real political pressure here, I think, on him now to do what he can to lower those prices. Again.

[Nicole Wallace]

What's amazing is he gives the State of the Union on a Tuesday. He launches the war late Friday, early Saturday. And his only economic indicator that he's boasting about in that speech is gas prices. Do you think he was unaware of the. I mean, what are the markets responding to? Either that he was unaware that he would launch the strike or unaware what the impact of oil would be.

[Michael Crowley]

I sort of gave up a long time ago trying to understand Donald Trump's inner logic. I don't think it leads us very far, but I do think what you can say is that he's offered no coherent explanation to the American people of precisely why now, nor has he offered a plan for a more stable Iran, nor Has he offered a really compelling economic answer to, as we just heard, right, have guts. People who think this is going to go on are fools. You know, there's this kind of moral condemnation that has nothing to do with policy. And so I think politically he's really running on the idea that vibes are gonna carry him through, vibes that is we're being strong and that will this sort of display of American strength is the thing that will give people confidence. And I think you're seeing in the markets right now that that is not a compelling answer.

[Nicole Wallace]

Director Brennan, your read of this moment,

[John Brennan]

it's a difficult read, that's for sure. And I certainly agree with what Charlotte is saying, that that I think is going to go on for some time. And I think it just demonstrates that Donald Trump, ever since he assumed the presidency the second time, he's been very tactical. All of his steps don't take into account the second, third and fourth order effects, whether it's tariffs or whether it's the deployment of ICE or whether it's a military operation in Iran. I think he just looks what's my next move? And he doesn't think about and obviously he doesn't take into account then the intelligence assessment that was given to him and to the other seniors that the military operation was unlikely to topple the regime. And so I think he's trying to figure out exactly the next steps. He's not ruling anything out because he very well may decide to put US Troops on the ground to carry out some type of operation. But these are the things that should have been thought of it through before the operation took place. There was no coordination at the very beginning in terms of either consistent messaging on the rationale and objectives and as well as other issues such as making sure that there's going to be evacuation capabilities in place in the gulf for U.S. citizens. And so there are a number of things that just make me believe more and more that he is taking things not just one day at a time, but almost one hour at a time. And he's going to go with his gut again, irrespective of what the strategic implications are down the road.

[Nicole Wallace]

I mean, to that point. Michael Crowley, the Times has an unbelievable body of reporting over the weekend, but let me read from some of it. In war's first week, a punishing military campaign with no coherent end game. Iranian officials have said they're confident that the government can survive the barrage and that over time, the Americans and Israelis will lose their appetite for a war. They've given a code name to their strategy of raising the costs of the conflict to get the United States and Israel to blink Operation Madman. To that end, let me show you Maria Bartiromo's attempt. I don't know what she's attempting. I'll take Charlie's point of not trying to figure that out. Here she is with Caroline Levitt about a draft.

[Michael Crowley]

The president had an interesting exchange on Air Force One over the weekend.

[Nicole Wallace]

Carol, I want to get your take

[Michael Crowley]

about this idea of troops on the ground. Mothers out there are worried that we're going to have a draft, that they're going to see their sons get in and daughters get involved in this.

[Nicole Wallace]

What do you want to say about

[Michael Crowley]

the president's plans for troops on the ground? As we know, it's been largely an air campaign up until now.

[Nicole Wallace]

It has been and it will continue to be. And President Trump wisely does not remove options off of the table. So refusing to take a draft off the table was Caroline Levitt's answer in the friendly confines of not just Fox, but Maria Bartiromo. But Trump just tweeted, I think it's very complete, pretty much what's, how do you even cover this?

[Charlotte Howard]

It's hard, Nicole, and it is hour by hour, as Director Brennan suggested. But I think these two things are related in a way. It kind of doesn't make sense for the White House to be, on the one hand, not ruling out troops on the ground, not ruling out a draft, and on the other hand, the president saying that we're wrapping this up, but actually I think they are related because what, again, and I think Charlotte's right, there's no way to get inside of President Trump's head. But what we do know is that there have been a lot of pretty tough headlines and developments for this administration in the last several days. It's almost like a very compressed sort of warp speed version of the Iraq war where, you know, President Bush declared mission accomplished, the statues of Saddam were toppled, the Iraqi army was pretty swiftly defeated. And then you started to see all the problems emerge, how complicated this was, things that people hadn't anticipated. So President Trump in the first hours of the war was able to kill Iran's leader, inflict massive damage on Iran's military. There were some US Casualties very early on, but relative to a major military operation, not to minimize them, but they weren't terrible, even if every individual one is terrible. But then you started to see oil prices surge, the markets were going wobbly, people starting to game out. Long term problems that would be faced in particular by America's Gulf allies, who really need peace and stability in the region for their economic models. The fact that the Iranian regime was not capitulating or even seeming to be willing to negotiate on terms that the US Would accept. And so therefore, I think it's not surprising that we're starting to hear President Trump do what many people predicted. By the way, I say this based on one interview that I think he did with CBS News earlier this afternoon. And my understanding is he's going to have a press conference this afternoon, so we'll hear more from him. But based on that one interview, he seems to be trying to declare victory and say, you know, we've, we've destroyed Iran's military. They're very limited in their missile capability. The nuclear program has basically been stopped. And we're getting ready to wrap this up. And I think it's quite plausible that that is a response to the fallout he's starting to see and the fact that the conversation in the country is moving to the point where the White House is forced to take questions about a draft because I think the American people don't know what the strategy is and where this thing is headed. So we'll hear more from the president tonight. But this something that a lot of people had been predicting that he may, if things were looking rocky, try to declare a pretty quick victory and get out. And last point I'll make, are the Israelis on board with that? I think that's a very different question.

[Nicole Wallace]

Well, I mean, Director Brennan on that, he has said that we will make a decision with Israel again, sort of furthering. Reuters is reporting Trump says ending Iran war will be mutual decision with Netanyahu, furthering the hole that Rubio seemed to dig for himself up on Capitol Hill that ignited a war of words with Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly on one side and the rest of the MAGA figures on the other, that we seemingly even Trump has said to Reuters, we've outsourced our decision making. It'll be made, quote, mutually with Netanyahu. But the other is the ayatollah has been replaced with his son, who some reports suggest is more brutal than he was. What will have been accomplished?

[John Brennan]

Well, it's a good question. But as we well know, Donald Trump can tell you that the sky is green and believe that. And so therefore, he's going to, he's never going to admit a mistake or failure. He's going to claim victory. He's going to claim that he's been able to punish the Iranians and Certainly has. But from the standpoint of toppling the regime or actually getting the highly enriched uranium of 60% that is there, I don't see right now how he's going to do that. I think he realizes that he was brought into this war by Bibi Netanyahu. He will never admit it, but Netanyahu was the one who really made this happen. But I think as he sees his economic and political fortunes declining, he's going to try to find a way out and declare victory in the process. So, again, Donald Trump is masterful in many respects in terms of being able to present something to his MAGA base that makes him look good. But I think, by all accounts, looking at what has happened in the Gulf, and this is something that the Iranians are not just going to say, okay, goodbye, We've killed the current Ayatollah Khamenei's father and family members. We have killed many of their senior leaders. We have destroyed a lot of their infrastructure. I do not believe that the Iranians are going to just totally desist from carrying out some attacks, even if we decide to put a halt to military operations. The Strait of Hormuz, I think, is still going to be a very, very dangerous and intense area. So, again, I think Donald Trump is going to have his work cut out for him trying to cast this as something that he will claim as a victory.

[Nicole Wallace]

What's interesting to me is how quickly the economic fortunes and how interconnected all of this is here. And I wonder if you can just talk a little bit about the impacts here at home and the interconnectedness of the economies of all the countries that Iran has been targeting with strikes.

[Michael Crowley]

Well, one of the things that's been interesting about watching America's evolution to becoming the world's biggest oil producer is that for a long time, energy independence was framed as this goal, right? Both this economic and strategic goal. And America is now the world's biggest oil producer, and it remains the biggest oil consumer. And it is not the case that President Trump controls all of America's oil companies, Right? So he can't flip switch, and then the price of oil will fall because production will ramp up. And so I think you see here this sort of basic vulnerability that President Trump doesn't really want to admit, which is that America's economy, despite his tariff threats, despite his claims that America is energy dominant, is still part of a global economic system. And something that happens across the world and chokes off oil, through which 20% of the world's oil supply flows will have a material impact on America's economy. And that's a, a fact that is true and a fact that is incompatible with the president's broader assertion of American economic strength.

[Nicole Wallace]

You mentioned the jobs report. That data came in before the war had begun. You now have this real explosion in the price at the pump, this thing that Trump at least thought was important enough to tout at his State of the Union, an indicator that he thought would allay the economic distress of inflation and of the tariffs. What is the broader economic picture if this continues?

[Michael Crowley]

Well, there's been, as we've talked about before, this broad and consistent consumer pessimism that at some point becomes not just about mood but about behavior that helps drive broader spending in the economy. And the big question again, has always been, will inflation remain at an elevated level as economic growth slows? And these two factors right now of this weak jobs report, plus the higher oil price, really put enormous pressure on that broader picture. But I think, as we just heard, Donald Trump is betting that the politics of this are about the person, not the policy, that he can basically get away with anything with his base. The issue is that it's not just the base he needs to worry about. Right. We know how resilient his support is among a certain faction of American voters. And we're heading into the midterms. It's not enough anymore. It's not enough for this president.

[Nicole Wallace]

Yeah. To your point, his approval rating is actually higher than the approval on the economy. 70% of Americans think the economy is bad or fair. Only 30% think it's excellent or good. So his economic approval rating is a full 10, 11 points beneath his overall approval rating. No one's going anywhere. We have much more after a very short break. Also ahead for us, there's alarming brand new reporting that the Trump administration is stopping the intelligence community from doing what it normally does, warning law enforcement about threats to the homeland because of the war with Iran. We'll tell you about that. And later in the broadcast, Donald Trump's political albatross, how his war of choice with Iran is dragging his political standing down even further, even as he and some of his allies, including Senator Lindsey Graham, push for more interventions in more places. All those stories and much more when Deadline White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.

[John Brennan]

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[John Brennan]

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[John Brennan]

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[Charlotte Howard]

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[John Brennan]

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[Charlotte Howard]

he buried my electrical wires, I knew

[Andrew Weissman]

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[John Brennan]

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[Andrew Weissman]

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[Charlotte Howard]

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[Nicole Wallace]

we're back with Michael Crowley, John Brennan and Charlotte Howard. Michael, I wanted to read to you some of the Times headlines on the economy. Trump's war becomes latest economic Hazard. Your colleagues write this Fuel prices could soar and stay elevated for months. That can make groceries and other ship goods more expensive. Consumers and businesses stung by rising costs could choose to spend less, constraining economic growth. It lands in the same place that Charlotte's analysis has landed about the price of gas. Let me read this. The impact seemed anything but small for Americans. The average price of a gallon of gas reached nearly $3.48 nationally on Monday, according to AAA, a 16% increase from a week earlier. These may be seared in my brain, but I remember the early days of Trump 2.0 was about annihilating all of the clean energy vehicle programs and all of the sort of gas alternative options for the American consumer. The idea that there was any thought into this or any effort to protect Americans from the impact of this war of his choosing is foolish. Are you picking up any sense that anyone around him is feeding him Real information about the impact on all Americans.

[Charlotte Howard]

Well, Nicole, I think that in this second Trump term, it's clear that he has advisors around him who say yes and are not there to challenge him, but to enable him. I mean, it's just a very clear difference between this term and the first term. In the first term, he had a lot of more establishment type figures around him. I think he came into the presidency little bit unsure. I mean, President Trump is never too unsure of himself. But I think he knew that he was going to need some help from veterans who had been around. And he put in people like Jim Mattis and H.R. mcMaster as his national security advisor and a lot of more conventional types who were often, John Kelly, the chief of staff, we often talked about them as the guardrails who would try to talk him out of things, to try to explain to him the unintended consequences of all sorts of things that he had in mind. And I think he very consciously didn't want that in this term and has chosen people around him who are much more willing to talk about, okay, who are much more willing to say to him, we understand what you want to do. Let's figure out how we can do it. And spend a lot less time giving him the bad news or telling him how things could go wrong. Now, that doesn't mean that no one is doing it, and I just don't. I think it strains credulity, even this administration, to imagine you could think you could start a major war with Iran and not know that it was likely to have substantial economic effects. I think a big question here, though, is whether Trump felt, particularly after last year's strikes on Iran and especially after the US Operation in Venezuela, which went so smoothly, was so surgical, pulled out Maduro and left Trump with essentially a compliant government in Venezuela that's doing, you know, what he asks, that he kind of got in mind that you could flex military power much more easily than people had been assuming for a long time. And that all to the extent that he was hearing these warnings, that they were exaggerated or nail biting, and that you could just kind of steamroll ahead and everything would work out well. Because otherwise, it's hard to imagine that he's surprised to find himself in this situation. It really wasn't rocket science to know that oil could go to 100 in a military operation like this.

[Nicole Wallace]

Director Brennan, we started sort of keeping track of all the reasons that were offered. Lots of times in a phone call to a reporter, oftentimes in a social media post, he's yet to address the nation as I think every one of his predecessors has done before taking the country to war. But there's some reporting about one of the rationales that I want to share with you. This is from Ms. Now nuclear experts White House claims about Iran Reactor at heart of case for War Quote, the Trump administration has cited Iran's Tehran research reactor as essential justification for its military strikes, but has provided no evidence that the facility built by the US and used for civilian research for six decades was being used to develop nuclear weapons. Multiple nuclear scientists and non proliferation experts told Ms. NOW that the reactor does not have the capacity to serve as an easy conduit to a bomb as asserted by the administration. Your assessment of where we are in terms of the rationale being provided by the administration for the operation for the war in Iran?

[John Brennan]

Well, I think that rationale is still all over the place and especially in terms of saying that there was an imminent threat from Iran. There was no imminent threat from Iran, either conventional or nuclear. But I think he's going to continue to just emphasize the importance of carrying out these military operations against Iran as a way to prevent Iran from having a capability. So I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, behind closed doors some reports have stated that there's some screaming. He's probably going to blame some people despite the fact that he is the one that I think certainly engineered and decided on this. But he does, as Michael is pointing out, he expects fealty from those around him. He just wants them to say yes to him as opposed to, you know, providing the cautionary remarks that all the presidents that I work for wanted to hear from the intelligence community and from the advisors. Ultimately it's up to a president to make the decisions, but you need to be able to accept the input of others. And the fact that as again, Michael said that the Venezuela operation went very smoothly. Obviously it was very targeted, it was very tactical, but it did come off without really much of a hitch at all. But something as you know, as complicated and complex as Iran, I do think that Donald Trump is infatuated with what he sees as the imperial powers of the president presidency. The fact that Donald Trump is the commander in chief of the world's most powerful army is really quite frightening. And he wanted to exercise that in a way that he thought was going to just make him look good. But I think increasingly he realizes that he's in a bit of a bind here and we'll find a way out if he addresses the nation, as some people, you know, speculate he may be saying tonight, I think he's going to not just continue with the same rationale and the same explanations. He may in fact be claiming that there's going to be, that victory is near and he's going to, I think, change not just the rationale, but also the objectives that he was always seeking.

[Nicole Wallace]

The second term has been the story of titans of industry, people to whom the country has given unbelievable opportunity and wealth, standing shoulder to shoulder with him. His inauguration was the picture of the most successful tech and business titans facing out the country, facing the people standing next to him. Have you heard any rumblings that any of them are uncomfortable with backing the military operation?

[Michael Crowley]

I think this candidly would be a weird place to draw the line. There have been so many other instances. The recent bullying by Pete Hegseth of Anthropic specifically, I think even more potentially than the details of the Ziran operation should send a real chill through corporate America. And as a reminder, Hegseth, Pete hegseth and the DoD or the Department of War rather objected to the terms of Anthropic's contract with the military. And rather than just cancel it, they wanted to intervene in a more dramatic way. Calling them a supply chain risk. Exactly. And so the idea that you would use the power of the state to really severely go after one of the fastest growing companies in America is something that I think should send a chill down the spine of most executives. On Iran specifically, I mean, the story of this administration has been continuously testing the limits, showing their muscle, whether it's bullying a law firm or going in with Elon Musk and Doge, area after area of American life. Donald Trump has wanted to see, how far can I go here? And one of the extraordinary things, and Director Brennan would certainly be able to speak to this better than I can. But just to point out, there's a huge gap between military prowess and military capabilities and strategic outcomes. And there has been an extraordinary display of military prowess in the past week. I mean, really extraordinary what the American military can do, and equally extraordinary a reminder of how that nevertheless cannot achieve a goal that is necessarily in the interests of the American people or that

[Nicole Wallace]

is attached to any strategy. We'll give you a quick last word on that, Director Brennan.

[John Brennan]

Well, I think looking at what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrates exactly Charlotte's point. We have tremendous capabilities. We can bring them to bear in the battlefield. But that doesn't mean you're going to change the, the contours of the, of the political activities in a country, whether or not you're trying to topple a regime or whether you're trying to install some type of government that is going to be more amenable to, you know, U.S. interests. So, again, the U.S. military has extraordinary capability and they're showing tremendous courage and demonstrating the capabilities on the world stage. But that's a far, far cry from actually being able to change developments on the ground, especially in this case. You don't have boots on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan. You had hundreds of thousands of US Troops on the ground. You still couldn't change what's happening politically. So I think we should have learned the lesson long before this operation got underway.

[Nicole Wallace]

An unbelievable moment. I'm so grateful to all of you for starting us off. Michael Crowley, Charlotte Howard, thank you so much. Director Brennan sticks around after the break for us. The intelligence community would like to warn law enforcement agencies about the threat posed to Iran, to us here at home, to the homeland, if only the Trump administration would allow it. We'll bring you that new reporting next.

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[Nicole Wallace]

brand new reporting is raising the alarms today that the Trump administration may be concealing the consequences of the war it has started with Iran. The Daily Mail reports that the White House halted the publication of a report by the FBI, Homeland Security and National Counterterrorism Center. It warns of, quote, elevated threats by the government of Iran to US military and government personnel and facilities and anti regime activists in the United States. The Daily Mail, which reviewed the report, writes this quote, the five page bulletin blocked by the White House provides specific details on how Iranian proxies may carry out attacks across the country. One section explains how local law enforcement can respond to this type of violence. The official title is a public safety awareness report. Elevated threat in the United States during U. S. Iran conflict. Homeland Security broke protocol and gave the White House a heads up about the nationwide bulletin. Hours before it was set to be released, top Trump officials ordered it placed on hold. That's according to a senior DHS official. A senior Trump administration official later confirmed the story to Reuters. The White House neither confirmed or denied blocking the terror bulletin. In a statement to the Daily Mail, a White House spokesperson said, quote, the White House is coordinating closely with all government agencies to ensure information is being disseminated and is accurate up to date and has been properly vetted, even if that means taking additional time to review. To ensure nothing is done in a vacuum, I want to bring in former top DOJ official and general counsel for the FBI. Our legal analyst Andrew Weissman is here. Director John Brennan is still with us as well. Andrew Weissman, your thoughts?

[Andrew Weissman]

I think probably the best thing is for people to understand that when you have something like a war in a foreign country, what is going on domestically as a. What should be going on domestically as a routine matter? Well, my colleagues at the CIA under Director Brennan would be dealing with sort of foreign intelligence domestically. You would want to have as close as possible a sort of federal and state task force across the nation where you are doing sort of two principal things. You are hardening the target, that is that you are making sure that you are looking at people and places that could be at increased risk and there will be increased risk. This isn't something where it's hypothetical. You're going to be looking at locations which could be the target of terrorist events. You're going to be looking at people who may be the target but also could be the perpetrators. You use all sorts of tools, electronic tools, individual tools, to gather information. And then the other thing you do both at the federal and state level in coordination is you figure out if there are disruption tactics, which is a fancy way of saying whether you can do sting operations, whether you do interviews and if necessary, whether you can arrest people to try and minimize the threat that you're seeing. All of that requires information to be given to the people who need it. So if this reporting is accurate, I cannot stress enough how much this absolutely ties not just one, but, like both hands behind your back at a time that it is critical to have domestic law enforcement acting on this intelligence to keep people safe.

[Nicole Wallace]

I mean, to say nothing of the upheaval atop dhs. The news cycle is moving at such a pace that we didn't point that out yet. I want to read for both of you some reporting from ABC along these lines. Iran may be activating sleeper cells outside the country. Alert says the United States has intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as a, quote, operational trigger for sleeper assets outside the country, according to a federal government alert sent to law enforcement agencies. The alert reviewed by ABC News cites preliminary signals analysis of a transmission likely of Iranian origin, that was relayed across multiple countries shortly after the death of the Ayatollah Director Brennan. This seems to be the opposite example of what Andrew's talking about. This seems to be something that was sent from the federal government to law enforcement, and it seems to suggest signal analysis that means intercepts. Right. Will you tell me what you hear when you hear this ABC News reporting?

[John Brennan]

Well, I think since Iran recognizes that it's in an existential threat, real, its survival is at stake, and it is launching missiles and drones at nearby targets in its repertoire of tools, it does have the terrorist capability that it has demonstrated over the years. And so I would suspect that the Iranians are looking for opportunities to carry out strikes, specifically against the United States and Israel, against their targets, whether they be in the United States or abroad or somewhere else. But clearly, I think the intelligence community needs to be working very closely with a lot of our allies and partners to see whether we can detect some of those preparations. But as was pointed out, I mean, it's appalling and it's so, you know, politically corrupt for the White House to stop these bulletins from going out, because, as Andrew pointed out, this is what the locals really rely on. I was the director of the National Counterterrorism center during the Bush administration. We were dealing with Al Qaeda threats on a daily basis. And we would work with the NSA and CIA and FBI and Homeland Security and others to put together these bulletins, these warnings, these advisories, and push it out to the Joint Terrorism Task Force, the. That exist in the United States. There are over 100 of them. And at these task forces, you have the federal agencies represented there. But you also have the state and local officials that are trying to figure out exactly how they can best prevent these types of attacks and activities from taking place. So the fact that we are in a war, despite what the White House says, we are in a war with Iran, and Iran is going to do what it can. And tourism is one of the things that I think they're going to opt for, whether it be now or this week or next week or whenever. But certainly after the drubbing that they've been taking, the death and destruction that has been rained down upon them, I don't see any reason why they would hold back on this while this conflict continues.

[Nicole Wallace]

It's a terrifying analysis, but their capabilities are. I mean, Donald Trump has been protected by the government, first that he ran and then that President Biden ran for the better part of seven years for the strike on Soleimani. So this sort of penchant for terrorism and retribution is something that even Donald Trump is aware of. No one goes anywhere. There's much more on this part of the story to tell you about. We'll all be right back. We're back with Andrew Weissman and John Brennan. Let me read this to you both from the Atlantic. A mysterious code is being broadcast on shortwave. Rad, is it Iran, quote. For years, the Iranian government has used foreign agents, including those working undercover, to try to kidnap or kill government officials, activists and journalists abroad. U.S. and European officials I spoke to this week are bracing for a return to that playbook as the regime fights for its survival in a war against adversaries that boasts superior military capabilities. Now that the war is here, officials told me Tehran likely believes that it has little to lose by attacking overseas, including by striking civilian targets. Under sustained attack by the US And Israel, the regime may turn to asymmetric retaliation to try to maintain control. Is this what's playing out already, Director Brennan, in the Middle East? And what would this look like if this were to be deployed on us here at home?

[John Brennan]

Well, I don't think Iran has had the ability yet to respond asymmetrically with either, you know, large cyber attacks. And maybe the US Military has taken out a lot of their cyber capability, but terrorism is basically a cheap man's ability to retaliate. And in the Iranian culture and in the Middle East, I mean, eye for an eye has kept the has perpetuated the cycle of violence for many, many years now. Iran has been restrained over the last some several years in terms of carrying out attacks. It's the largest State sponsor of terrorism. But the ones that can be attributed to Iran, several have, have been stopped, but they really have not carried them out because of fear of retaliation. I don't think that fear is there anymore. They are being pummeled with military strikes. And so therefore, why would they hold back on something like this if they believe that the Trump administration is determined to overthrow the regime? So it does take a bit of time. There could be messages going out, signals going out to operatives that they have Hezbollah. One of their proxies also has a global presence in different places. They have carried out attacks far afield before. So whether or not it's going to be in the or in Europe or Africa, South America or the United States, the Iranians, I think, will be thinking about, certainly some people in that regime are going to be thinking about how to strike back at the United States and cause pain and cause embarrassment to the Trump administration.

[Nicole Wallace]

Andrew Karolenik had some harrowing reporting about just who has been purged from the FBI. And it includes some of the folks most experienced at combating Iran and protecting against cyber.

[Andrew Weissman]

I want to make sure people understand what we're talking about here, which is that this is what could be going on, that instead of issuing reports to state and locals acknowledging that there's an increased threat environment here domestically as well as to United States interest abroad, instead of issuing that because it would be bad politically because it would make the war seem and be less popular, that that is not being done for that political reason, that people are being endangered simply because it would be unpopular to put out information about the increased threat environment. And I can't stress enough that what Director Brennan is saying is, is exactly what good law enforcement and intelligence officers are would be doing right now, which would be making sure that any increased threat is being dealt with. And one of the ways you do that is making sure that people have the information and that there is coordination. The idea that that is not happening and could be not happening for political reasons means that you're looking at politics over the lives of American citizens.

[Nicole Wallace]

It's an unbelievable moment. We're going to continue to need both of you to get through it. Andrew Weissman, thank you for joining us. Director John Brennan, thank you for spending the hour with me. Coming up next for us, the FBI attempts to revive a 2020 election conspiracy theory. We'll bring you that story next. Just one month after the Trump administration seized materials out of an elections office in Fulton County, Georgia, with the DNI standing by, the FBI has now seized material out of Arizona with a subpoena for investigative material related to Maricopa County's handling of the 2020 election. The record seized are the materials from the so called audit conducted by a now defunct Florida based cybersecurity company called Cyber Ninjas. It was run by an election denier and Trump supporter, but their investigation actually found that Joe Biden had won the county for their hand count by 360 more votes than originally believed. Arizona Attorney General Chris Mays reacted in a statement, quote, what the Trump administration appears to be pursuing now is not a legitimate law enforcement inquiry. It is the weaponization of federal law enforcement in service of crackpots and lies. We'll stay on top of that story. Up next for us, how the war in Iran is dealing another blow to Donald Trump's already low standing with the American people. We'll bring you that story after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.

[John Brennan]

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[Charlotte Howard]

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