“Desperate measures”

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Desperate Measures" — Deadline: White House

Host: Alicia Menendez (in for Nicolle Wallace), MSNBC
Date: August 21, 2025

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Overview

This episode tackles the escalating political battle over redistricting in the United States, pitting Democratic-led states against Republican-dominated moves in Texas and elsewhere. Drawing in lawmakers, political strategists, and journalists, the discussion zeroes in on California’s unprecedented response—empowering voters to decide on a new congressional map—and highlights the broader, national ramifications, from voter sentiment to shifting electoral coalitions.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. California Strikes Back: Emergency Redistricting

• Background: In reaction to Texas Republicans pushing through a mid-decade, partisan redistricting map, California’s State Assembly approved a ballot measure allowing voters the final say on a new congressional map.
  • "For California though, today is a sort of break glass in case of emergency, a retaliation for what Democrats view as an act of political warfare." — Alicia Menendez [00:53]
• Gavin Newsom & Obama Respond:
  • Newsom’s fiery rhetoric, backed by President Obama, places California leaders on the front line of a wider Democratic pushback.
  • Newsom: "We’re walking down a damn different path... We’re fighting fire with fire and we’re going to punch these sons of [expletive] in the mouth." [01:48]
  • Obama (statement): "...since Texas is taking direction from a partisan White House and gerrymandering... I have tremendous respect for how Governor Newsom has approached this..." [02:15]

2. Momentum Among Blue States & Inter-State Coordination

• Expansion to Other States: Leaders in New York, Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey are in talks to join California’s efforts if needed.
  • Nicole Collier: "They’re ready to do it if necessary... We’re going to continue to talk to these states to try to meet them where they are, which is in the dirt." [03:20]
• Democratic Messaging: Theme is not to start the fight, but to respond proportionately and defend democracy.

3. Policy Rationale and Public Sentiment

• California Assemblymember Isaac Bryan on the Ballot Measure:
  • “It’s us empowering the voters of California to make that decision.” [04:35]
• Republican Pushback:
  • Carl DeMaio: “Two wrongs don’t make a right... Governor Gavin Newsom is trying to eliminate what is the gold standard here in California.” [05:03]
• Bryan’s Response:
  • "While [Republicans] stand on hypocrisy in this moment, we’re standing on business." [05:39]
• Voter Attitudes:
  • Melanie Mason shares polling data: "70% of Democrats nationally like the idea of independent redistricting... But when it's framed as a response to Texas, we see strong support for what California is doing." [06:15]
• Claire McCaskill’s Take:
  • She likens the aggression to Russia’s war in Ukraine, pinning responsibility squarely on Trump:
    • "Everybody knows who started this. It was Donald Trump. He’s the one who began...trying to rig the maps." [07:22]
    • Supports acting aggressively to ensure urban and minority voters are not disenfranchised.

4. Escalation and National Stakes

• Sen. Jon Ossoff on the GOP Motive:
  • “They are trying to lock in one party rule...because he can’t afford to have a Democratic House that could investigate his misdeeds.” [08:31]
  • McCaskill: "Democrats across the country...some independent voters too...are going to make the call here." [09:08]

5. Election Strategies, Messaging, and Voter Engagement

• Bryan on Selling the Ballot Measure:
  • "We are tired of being the punching bag of this country...Now we're going to step up and we're going to fight back." [10:02]
• Republican Messaging Playbook:
  • Melanie Mason: "Two different opposition campaigns…One on good governance and independent redistricting, the other, explicitly partisan, to rally Trump’s base." [10:39]
• Kevin McCarthy’s Role:
  • McCaskill downplays his influence, highlighting California’s record of supporting the rest of the country financially and bearing the brunt of Trump’s policies. [11:54]

6. Barack Obama’s Voice and Its Significance

• Obama’s Rare Intervention:
  • "If we don’t respond effectively...this White House and Republican controlled state governments will not stop...They want to restrict [democracy]." [13:55]
  • McCaskill: "For [Obama] to roll up his sleeves...tells you how serious this is." [14:46]
• Bryan: “President Obama speaking up makes a hell of a lot of a difference ... the wind has been in our sails already.” [15:45]

7. Legal Battles and Urgent Timelines

• Court Hurdles:
  • Mason: “California Democrats cleared a major hurdle today...But the hard work is yet to come...They have to educate voters and raise a ton of money.” [17:50]

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Newsom’s Escalation:
  • “We’re fighting fire with fire and we’re going to punch these sons of [expletive] in the mouth.” — Gavin Newsom [01:52]
• Obama on Democracy:
  • “To them, this is not a bug. This is a feature of the kind of democracy ‘quote, unquote’ that they would like to see in America.” [13:55]
• Claire McCaskill:
  • "Glad Gavin Newsom is doing this. I think every single Democratic state should begin yesterday trying to redistrict and draw more Democratic districts." [07:22]
  • “While they stand on hypocrisy...we’re standing on business.” — Isaac Bryan [05:39]
• Jon Ossoff:
  • “We have no time or luxury for high minded hesitation.” [08:31]
• Bryan:
  • “The people of California are speaking incredibly clear…We will not allow the destruction of the foundations of our democracy.” [15:45]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Summary | |-----------|----------------| | 00:53–04:07 | Setting the stage: California retaliates against Texas’ gerrymandering, Newsom’s remarks and Obama’s supportive statement | | 04:07–05:59 | Assemblymember Bryan explains California’s ballot measure; Republican response; accusations of hypocrisy | | 05:59–09:51 | Politico’s Melanie Mason on Newsom’s political bet; McCaskill and Ossoff on Trump’s aggressive strategies and Democratic response | | 10:02–11:51 | Bryan on selling the initiative; Mason details Republican messaging strategies for upcoming CA vote | | 13:55–15:39 | Obama’s essay at NDRC; McCaskill on the urgency of this move, breaking with presidential norms | | 16:19–17:23 | Trump’s rhetoric laid bare; Bryan responds on defending democracy | | 17:50–18:58 | Mason on legal hurdles and demands of the campaign | | 22:16–29:59 | Latino voter dynamics and redistricting’s complexity discussed with Cong. Sam Locardo; McCaskill highlights GOP’s urban voter disenfranchisement tactics in states like Missouri | | 30:23–33:41 | J.D. Vance tasked with selling Trump’s unpopular economic bill, McCaskill and Smichel critique cynical political messaging | | 35:42–37:05 | Big policy impacts, especially on rural health care and Medicaid, highlighted | | 40:19–41:31 | Jon Ossoff contextualizes redistricting, polling data confirms deep public distrust, and need for outreach to independent voters discussed |

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Analysis of Voter Sentiment and Independent Voters

• Independent Voters Hold the Key:
  • McCaskill: "I would be hyper focused...on that wide swath of voters...they’re the ones that decide who gets the Electoral College votes in the swing states.” [41:31]
• Polling Data:
  • Reuters poll: 55% believe ongoing redistricting is bad for democracy—including 46% of Republicans; 57% fear American democracy is in danger. [42:56, 45:02]
• Implication:
  • The episode repeatedly stresses the importance of not assuming a blue wave and underscores the need for ongoing Democratic efforts to reach swing and disillusioned voters.

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Final Thoughts

This episode of "Deadline: White House" offers a comprehensive view of the new partisan arms race around redistricting, the high-stakes strategies now unfolding from D.C. to Sacramento, and the real-time implications for key voting blocs. The panel illuminates both the moral and tactical challenges facing Democrats and calls out the unprecedented nature of Republican brinksmanship. Ultimately, it is a call to action for voter engagement, vigilance, and tough but principled politics as the 2026 elections loom.

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Contributors: Alicia Menendez (host), Claire McCaskill, Isaac Bryan, Melanie Mason, Nicole Collier, Jon Ossoff, Sam Locardo, Basil Smichel, (quotes and attributions per transcript).

Transcript

[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Alicia Menendez]

Hi everyone, it is 4 o' clock here in New York. I'm Alicia Menendez in today for Nicole Wal. Desperate times, desperate measures for Democrats this afternoon from California to New York and everywhere in between. Just moments ago, the California State assembly approved a ballot measure allowing for a vote on a new congressional map on November 4th. It'll head to the Senate then presumably the governor's desk for signing. It is an in kind response to what happened late last night in Texas when Republicans there in transparently political fashion forged and passed a new district map mid decade that stands to pad the party's majority in Washington. For California though, today is a sort of break glass in case of emergency, moment in time, a retaliation for what Democrats there view as an act of political warfare. Here is California Governor Gavin Newsom on the battle lines drawn in Texas.

[Narrator/Announcer]

This is radical rigging of a midterm.

[Gavin Newsom]

Election, radical rigging of an election destroying.

[Alicia Menendez]

Vandalizing this democracy, the rule of law.

[Gavin Newsom]

So I'm sorry, I know some people's sensibilities, I, I respect and appreciate that.

[Narrator/Announcer]

But right now, with all due respect.

[Gavin Newsom]

We'Re walking down a damn different path.

[Narrator/Announcer]

We're fighting fire with fire and we're.

[Alicia Menendez]

Going to punch these sons of in the mouth. It is an aggressive position to take, but Newsom evidently has the support of his party's most popular figure from President Obama today, quote, over the long term, we shouldn't have political gerrymandering in America, just a fair fight between Democrats and Republicans based on who's got better ideas. But since Texas is taking direction from a partisan White House and gerrymandering in the middle of a decade to try and maintain the House despite their unpopular policies. And I have tremendous respect for how Governor Newsom has approached this. He's put forward a smart, measured approach in California designed to address a very particular problem at a very particular moment in Time. The question now, how far does this conflict spread? A number of states, red and blue, are at least considering new maps at this moment. And this morning, Democrat Nicole Collier, the Texas state representative, developed a national profile for her resistance. GOP gerrymandering efforts, told our colleague Ali Vitali that conversations with Democrats in other states are ongoing.

[Nicole Collier]

Well, Governor Hochul in New York, I spoke with her just yesterday and she is ready to take action if necessary. Again, this is all triggered. Not one of these Democratic governors was looking to do any mid decade redistricting. They had did their redistricting at the time of our 2020 census. And so they were not looking to do that, but they're ready. They're ready to do it if necessary. So we've got California Governor Newsom has agreed to start that process and they're already in the process of doing it. And so then we're looking for if we have to, New York is willing, Illinois is willing. We're talking to Maryland, we're talking to New Jersey. We're going to continue to talk to these states to try to meet than where they are, which is in the dirt.

[Alicia Menendez]

That quote, in the dirt. Politics is where we start today with member of the California State Assembly Isaac Bryan is here. Also joining us, senior political reporter covering California politics at Politico, Melanie Mason. And with me at the table, lucky me, former Democratic Senator and MSNBC political analyst Claire McCaskill. It is good to see you all. Assemblymember Bryan, let's start with you. Explain exactly what it is that your legislative body acted on today and why you felt it was necessary.

[Isaac Bryan]

Well, thank you for having me. Today we sent a constitutional amendment to the voters of California so that on November 4th they can decide whether we stand up to the power grab that's happening out of D.C. through Texas. It's not California Democrats drawing new maps. It's us empowering the voters of California to make that decision. And I believe strongly they will stand with us in this moment.

[Alicia Menendez]

Assemblymember Brian Republican Assemblymember Carl DeMaio explained his position like this. Take a listen.

[Narrator/Announcer]

And they're using a lot of voters distrust of Donald Trump and what's going on in Texas. But as the vehicle, the ruse to seize back power for politicians, that's what this is all about. It has nothing to do with the saving of democracy. I learned in kindergarten like most people that two wrongs don't make a right. And yet here you have Governor Gavin Newsom trying to eliminate what is the gold standard here in California.

[Alicia Menendez]

Assemblymember your Evaluation of that point of view, pure hypocrisy.

[Isaac Bryan]

I chaired the Elections Committee for two years. I authored the Fair Maps act, which called for drawing political boundaries without consideration for where politicians currently live. Republicans voted against it. I authored legislation calling for independent redistricting commissions for every single level of California government. Republicans voted against it. While they stand on hypocrisy in this moment, we're standing on business.

[Alicia Menendez]

Melanie, I want you to help me understand how all of this looks from Governor Newsom's perspective. It's not exactly popular, this redistricting effort. He seems committed to playing hardball. What is the calculus in his mind?

[Melanie Mason]

I think his calculus is that Democratic voters in the state of California and nationally can hold two thoughts in their head at the same time. And I think the first is that redistricting is independent. Redistricting is very popular with Democrats in the state, in the country, Country Politico, along with UC Berkeley's Citron center, we just had a poll out today that found that 70% of Democrats nationally like the idea of independent redistricting. But when it's framed to them as this is something that California has to do in response to what happened in Texas, in response to what has been set off by Trump, we see strong majorities of Democrats nationally liking the fact that Governor Newsom and California Democrats are pursuing that.

[Alicia Menendez]

So.

[Melanie Mason]

So that's the bet that Newsom is making. He's saying, you know, we're no longer can we do the sort of two wrongs don't make a right philosoph, which I think has governed a lot of Democrats for a long time. And he is betting that Democrats and independents in the state, and who knows, maybe some Republicans will agree with him and say in this circumstance, we're going to put our personal feelings about independent redistricting aside and see this as a larger political fight.

[Alicia Menendez]

Claire, do you think voters can hold both ideas in their head at the same time?

[Claire McCaskill]

Oh, absolutely. It reminds me a little bit of Trump trying to reframe the war in Ukraine, that somehow Ukraine started it. Everybody knows who started the war in Ukraine. It was Russia. Everybody knows who started this. It was Donald Trump. Everybody knows he's the one who began a process of trying to put pressure on every Republican state that he can to change and rig the maps. And I'm glad Gavin Newsom is doing this. I think every single Democratic state should begin yesterday trying to redistrict and draw more Democratic districts. They're getting ready to take away a lot of black congressmen and women a lot of congressmen and women of color in this country by busting up urban areas so that Republicans can win them. The way to get around that is to do the same thing to Republicans in Democratic states.

[Alicia Menendez]

I am struck by your parallel there, because this is in fact a march of aggression. I want you to take a listen to how Senator John Ossoff of Georgia described it just last night.

[Jon Ossoff]

They are trying to lock in one party rule in the United States in large part because he's engaged in so much outright malfeasance and abuse and corruption that he can't afford to have a Democratic House that could investigate his misdeeds. So Democrats need to strike back. We have no time or luxury for high minded hesitation.

[Alicia Menendez]

Do you think he gets it right?

[Claire McCaskill]

Absolutely. I mean, listen, I think when Gavin Newsom says we need to punch this, I'm not supposed to say that, but you quoted him. So I figure I get a pass.

[Alicia Menendez]

Family program, Claire. But yes, go ahead.

[Claire McCaskill]

In the mouth. I like that. And I think that's, I think Democrats across the country, and frankly some independent voters, too, and let's not take our eye off the ball there, these elections are going to be decided in these new districts that are not going to be heavily Republican or Democrat. I mean, some of the ones in California are going to four or five points. The independent voters are going to make the call here. And I think they're offended at what Trump's doing. You can see his approval numbers among independent voters have tanked. So I really do think this is a smart thing to do because if we don't do it, then they're going to keep going down this path of limiting the ability of Americans to really decide who represents them.

[Alicia Menendez]

So, Assemblymember Melody, I want to ask you the same question, looking at two different sides of this. So Assemblymember, for you, this is now a thing that Democrats in your state have to go out and sell. How do you sell this idea to voters?

[Isaac Bryan]

I think as what's been talked about already, we can walk and chew gum at the same time and we're going to walk all the way to the polls on November 4. We are tired of being the punching bag of this country, knowing that we give over $80 billion in federal taxes that we don't get back, knowing our 40 billion in disaster aid for Los Angeles has been denied, knowing that the big beautiful scam impacts Californians in a disproportionately severe way. We are tired of bowing down to this administration. Now we're going to step up and we're going to fight back.

[Alicia Menendez]

So, Melanie, let's talk about the other side of that. Do you have a sense yet of the effort that Republicans in California are going to make from a messaging perspective in the lead up to this vote?

[Melanie Mason]

What I think is so interesting about the opposition campaign is that there's effectively going to be two different opposition campaigns. And on one side, you're going to have kind of the good governance argument, right? The people who are arguing on the merits of these independent commissions. So we already know that Charlie Munger Jr. Who's a big mega donor, he's already talked about committing 30 to $40 million. They're dropping mail. I got a flyer in my mailbox yesterday about this. And this argument is purely on the good governance, independent redistricting, getting rid of partisan gerrymandering arguments. And then you're going to have sort of the national Republicans. And we anticipate that we're going to see a lot of efforts from the Republican National Committee, from President Trump's political operation, from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who is already speaking to donors and talking about him, wanting to muster quite an operation himself. And that is likely to be a more explicitly partisan effort to rally Trump's base to get that, you know, 38% or so of registered Republicans in the state and make sure that they turn out. Because, remember, in a special election, this is likely going to be a low turnout race. And so it really is going to be a matter of whose base is feeling the most fired up, who are going to be the most reliable voters to come out in a time when most people are not plugged into politics.

[Alicia Menendez]

Does it tell you anything that this is what it took to get Kevin McCarthy off the sidelines?

[Claire McCaskill]

Yeah, listen, I. I got to tell you, I think Kevin McCarthy hasn't quite yet figured out he's not speaker anymore. I don't know what gives him the right to be organizing and being a leader in this regard. I guess because donors like him and he thinks he can raise the money. I don't think Kevin McCarthy is a particularly powerful person. I mean, I think, frankly, Arnold Schwarzenegger is more of a danger to this than Kevin McCarthy is. But I get back to this, that I think people will remember this. How badly do the people of California want to defeat Donald Trump writ large? Because it's a statewide vote. And I think that's really what this is going to come down to. And I think the representative ticking through the ways that he has tried to harm California. I mean, we all know how vengeful he is, and he has been very vengeful towards California. And I think Californians feel it. And, you know, the irony is the Reddit states, most of them are states that get money, more government money from the government than they give. Not California. Some of the biggest blue states are the ones that are supporting other states that don't have the tax base they have. So it's really unfair the way that Trump has treated California. And I think he's right. I think the people of California are going to rise up and say, hey, you want to do this? Well, we've got a vote, too, and we've got a say, and I hope they say it loud and clear.

[Alicia Menendez]

I think what is so interesting about what we're watching transpire in part is it was easy to watch this as just a Texas story, and then it was easy for folks to say, this is just a thing that's happening in California. But this is one of the final frontier fights for our democracy. And the fact that you see it popping up in Indiana, in New Jersey, it is now a fight that is everywhere. And it is interesting to me that you see Barack Obama really finding his voice in this conversation. I want to read you just a little bit of what he said. This was an address at the National Democratic Redistricting Committee this week. And I know we'd all love to hear it in Barack Obama's voice instead of mine, but this is what you get.

[Claire McCaskill]

Okay?

[Alicia Menendez]

I've had to wrestle with my preference, which would be that we don't have political gerrymandering. But what I also know is that if we don't respond effectively, then this White House and Republican controlled state governments all across the country, they will not stop because they do not appear to believe in the idea of an inclusive, expansive democracy. They want to restrict it, and they're not that shy about saying so. And they do not see a problem in a minority of Americans being able to control the majority of legislatures and the White House and the Court and to be able to run things in their interests. It doesn't bother them. To them, this is not a bug. This is a feature of the kind of democracy, quote, unquote, that they would like to see in America. I think he is managing to connect dots there that are important about what the vision is not just for a single political party, but for a country under the leadership of that party.

[Claire McCaskill]

Exactly. And by the way, if. If somebody would have asked me a year ago to bet on whether or not Barack Obama would get in the middle of a fight about Redistricting. I would have bet big money that he wouldn't, because this is a man who really respected the norms of the presidency, really took seriously things like, I don't ever talk to justice about anything. They are independent of my control. Things like, I think it's really important how everything appears in the White House and we won't do politics in the White House. For him to roll up his sleeves and say, let's go to Gavin Newsom, that tells you how serious this is. It tells you that he is, in fact, breaking the glass and saying, to hell with the norms. We've got to fight this guy, because if we don't, we're going to continue down a road that we may not be able to get back on assembly.

[Alicia Menendez]

I also imagine it makes you and your colleagues feel as though you have support and wind in your sails.

[Isaac Bryan]

Oh, absolutely. President Obama speaking up makes a hell of a lot of a difference to me and to many others. But really, the wind has been in our sails already. The people of California are speaking incredibly clear in every community that I've been to and every community many of my colleagues represent. And I think this November, they are going to send a resounding referendum to the Trump administration letting them know that we will not allow the destruction of the foundations of our democracy. And we will not sit quiet in that moment because we're taking some sort of high road that doesn't exist anymore. When you're going to go low, we're gonna meet you right there and we're gonna be ready to fight. And that's what this is all about.

[Alicia Menendez]

Well, especially Assemblymember, because they're not pretending this is about anything other than protecting their own political interests. You had Donald Trump reacting, of course, very positively to the news about what happened in Texas and then advocating for an end to mail in ballots before saying, quote, if we do these two things, we will pick up 100 more seats and the crooked game of politics is over. I mean, like, I get that he cannot piece together that the beginning of what he's saying is in direct contradiction to the end of what he is saying there, but he's giving the game away.

[Isaac Bryan]

No. And he said this when he was running. He said, if you elect me one more time, I'll fix it so good we'll never have to worry about it. And that's because he lies, he cheats and he steals. And that's been a character feature of his his entire life. That's why so many of us were deeply concerned to put a person of that low moral fortitude in the White House. But in this moment, the American people have to step up. And I believe the American people are willing to step up. And I'm proud that California is going to be a major part of leading that resistance.

[Alicia Menendez]

Can I just get a gut check from you, Senator, real quick? 100. Does that sound like a made up number?

[Claire McCaskill]

Yeah, well, lots of most of his numbers are made up. He's consistent.

[Alicia Menendez]

Yeah. Okay. I was like, I'm not sure how we got to that number. Melanie, late last night you had a California judge clearing the way for what? What we're seeing today saying Republicans, quote, failed to meet their burden of establishing a basis for relief. Help me understand, does that mean then that the courts are going to say, go ahead, green light?

[Melanie Mason]

Yeah. I mean, what assembly and Legislative Republicans were trying to do was they were trying to throw sand in the gears any way they could before this advanced out of the legislature. So they were trying to say on sort of procedural grounds that this was moving too fast through the legislature. And what you saw from the California State Supreme Court was a pretty resounding no. I mean, California Democrats, they cleared a major hurdle today in getting this out of the legislature. But I think we all need to be clear and I respect that the assembly member is very confident about how this ballot measure is going to play out. But the hard work for them is yet to come. I mean, they are, in a very compressed time period, going to have to educate the voters about what is going on. They're going to have to raise a ton of money to outset what is going to be a ton of money coming in on the other side. And they are going to have to send this resounding message. If this is a national fight, as they claim it to be, a squeaker is probably not going to send the message that they want. So not only do Democrats want to win this, they want to win this resoundingly. And that's going to put a lot of pressure on them for the 47 days before ballot drops. And that's quite a timeline for them.

[Alicia Menendez]

To work under high stakes on a very tight timeline. California Assemblymember Isaac Bryant and Melanie Mason, thank you both so much for starting us off. Claire, you are sticking with me. When we come back, a House Democrat from California joins us next on where Democrats go from here, what this all means for the midterms. Plus, Donald Trump has tasked J.D. vance with just about the worst job in politics right now, selling his deeply unpopular, quote, big beautiful bill. We'll talk about his visit to Georgia this afternoon and later in the program, Never one to shy away from a photo op, Donald Trump says he's going to join the National Guard patrolling the streets of Washington, D.C. today, but polls show D.C. residents and voters nationwide they oppose his military takeover of the country's capital. Deadline Whitehouse continues after this quick break. Don't go anywhere.

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[Jon Ossoff]

Some point to Texas is a justification for this proposal, but California doesn't follow.

[Claire McCaskill]

We lead since the policies of the federal administration and that majority are so.

[Nicole Collier]

Incredibly unpopular, they decided they needed to.

[Claire McCaskill]

Rewrite the rules to win.

[Alicia Menendez]

Now the governor says it's about fighting with fighting fire with fire. And what I want to submit to.

[Gavin Newsom]

You all today is that fighting fire.

[Alicia Menendez]

With fire is the problem. It's not the solution.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Democrats fight to survive. Republicans fight to dominate. And when you fight to dominate, you stop at nothing. You cheat, you rig you kill democracy in the process because democracy may bend, but here in California, it will not break.

[Alicia Menendez]

Some of that back and forth from inside the California State assembly this afternoon as that state Senate prepares to take up the measure, a reality check for both parties from Politico, quote, the Republican led gambit to redistrict rests on a significant gamble banking on the emerging realignment of of many working class Latino voters towards the GOP. But over a year out from the 2026 elections, there's an emerging reality operatives say are slapping both parties in the face. Trump's approval numbers with Latino voters are souring and those same voters still don't trust Democrats. With Republicans razor thin majority in the House and the possibility of entirely new Hispanic majority districts defining the next elections, the flagging figures are worth paying attention to on both sides of the aisle. Multiple democr Democratic and Republican strategist told Playbook with Palatinos. Both parties are in the wilderness. Joining our conversation, Democratic Congressman Sam Locardo of California. Claire is back with us as well. It is good to see you, Congressman. I want to be transparent here. My husband is a pollster who focuses almost entirely on Latino voters. So this is the conversation that we have at dinner every night. He would argue there wasn't a realignment. Maybe arguably there was a dealignment where you saw Latinos actually moving away from the Democratic Party. Do you think the Dems have an opportunity here to win them back?

[Gavin Newsom]

Absolutely. I'm a member of the Hispanic Caucus. Of course we're looking at the polling data. We're seeing very high levels of dissatisfaction on the order of 70% with this administration among Latino voters. And we know they're worried about it. The Republicans are engaging in these kinds of gamuts precisely because they know they're losing.

[Alicia Menendez]

They know they're losing, but they're also redrawing districts with the idea that these voters are now their voters. And if you really look at the numbers, a lot of these voters that they are counting on are lower propensity voters, meaning they're less likely to vote in a midterm, midterm or historically have been less likely to vote in a midterm, which makes me wonder if they actually think those voters are voting at all if they're so concerned with which party they're voting for so much as they're banking on them staying home.

[Gavin Newsom]

Yeah, I would add to that. In addition, Latino voters, younger voters who we know have turned against Trump, those who supported Trump in 24, the younger voters, are actually the most dissatisfied among all of Trump's supporters from 24. And so these are all low propensity voters. I think, you know, this is a phenomenon known as dummy mandering. When you get out there and start redrawing lines believing you know what the voters are going to do, this is why politicians shouldn't be choosing their voters. Voters will surprise us. And I think voters are absolutely going to surprise Donald Trump.

[Alicia Menendez]

One of the things, I will admit, Claire, that surprised me, this is my own naivete, is how just absolutely transparent Republicans have been about what they were doing at the beginning of this debate in Texas. They were, there was at least this idea that they were doing it because the districts weren't fair and they were hiding behind what they argued were legitimate reasons. The longer this has rolled out, the more transparent they have been about the fact that they are doing this because Donald Trump asked them to. And it is because it is mathematically necessary in order to deliver a House that has majority Republican control.

[Claire McCaskill]

Yeah, and that's the thing. I think voters get that part right. I think people, even the low propensity voters, I think especially with the amount of money that's going to be raised in these new districts and certainly for the ballot initiative in California, they're going to be reminded that this is Trump just this is a raw, bold grab for power is all this is. It is not about anything nice. It's not about anything small d Democratic. And, you know, let's just take, for example, what they're trying to do in Missouri. Missouri is somewhere between 40 and 45% Democratic, depending on what race you're looking at right now. Certainly a Republican majority. Well, they want to take the congressman who is black, from Kansas City and been there for years. Very popular, represents all of greater Kansas City. They want to divide Kansas City up into five little pieces and make it string out from Kansas City so Republicans can win. So then we would end up with all of the congressmen from Missouri and one woman being Republican in a state that has 40% Democrats and the urban area, there would only be one urban area that really had a representative, even though the two urban areas are the economic engine of the state. Multiply that times many in all the states that are trying to do this, they're really, really trying to take away the ability of urban areas to have a representative that understands you.

[Alicia Menendez]

To talk, Congressman, about how we may watch that sort of how the dynamics are going to shake out in your state. But I do want to say it strikes me that very often state legislators are watching what happens in Washington, D.C. something like the budget bill, and thinking, my goodness, there are decisions being made that have such a huge impact on the work that I have to do as a state legislator. Right. All these state legislatures that all of a sudden have to find ways to close the gap, gap in funding that was left by the budget bill, all of a sudden the dynamic is kind of inversed here, right. Where you as a member of Congress, the seats that we are talking about being redrawn, have to watch what is happening in the state legislature and say, guys, do the right thing. I hope you have this under control because it is going to impact the legislative body that I am a of part enough.

[Gavin Newsom]

Certainly there's been a lot of conversation between state legislators and federal legislators, particularly in California over the last several months, because obviously it's the state houses where they're dealing with these massive budget gaps, particularly in health care, that we've left so many states. And so the good news is those conversations have been happening, the collaboration has been happening. And I think this legislature in California, certainly the assembly's already approved this redistricting. We expect the Senate as well will do. So based on the conversations I've had, I think everybody is moving in lockstep. Nobody likes the idea the redistricting plan in California. Nobody thinks this is a great thing to be doing. This is the necessary thing we have to do in a situation where the White House is literally redrawing the lines for Texas and we know they're going to keep doing it in Indiana, Ohio, Florida. So we have to step up.

[Alicia Menendez]

Let me ask you about that. That walking and moving and lockstep. You have to. Right. You are on a truncated timeline here. There is the desire to see a vote outcome that is overwhelming. That is not simply on the margins. Do you have a sense yet of how someone like yourself is going to be deployed in the next two months in order to take this argument to your constituents to other voters?

[Gavin Newsom]

Well, the most part, I think the constituents are ahead of us. Voters get it. I was asked about this at a town hall. I didn't raise the issue. Folks asked me what I was going to do. I said, well, I support it. I'm going to vote for it as a voter. And it was a round of applause. So I didn't have to do any convincing. The truth is, you know, we know there's going to be a lot of money coming in from the Republican side against this. So you. Yeah, there's going to be a battle. And in the end, usually the voters figure it out, out here.

[Alicia Menendez]

So, Congressman, before I let you go, we're going to get to deployment of national guard troops in D.C. later in the show. But I got to ask you, you have the president saying he's joining the Guard today. I know you've introduced a bill about the deployments. Talk to us about it. How Democrats can really push back against what's happening in Washington, D.C. in advance of that vote, you all are going to take about a 30 day extension.

[Gavin Newsom]

Well, I think as we talk about this issue of crime in cities. Look, I'm a former mayor, I'm a former criminal prosecutor. We have to talk about trusting the experts. That's our police departments. And what we know works against crime is good police working collaboratively with the community and lots of community partners involved in everything from gang prevention to domestic violence reduction. All the things that we know, no work to reduce crime rates. I was able to leave San Jose with the lowest homicide rate in the country, not because we had National Guard deployments, but because we trusted our experts, that is the police and community leaders who have been working on these problems for years.

[Alicia Menendez]

Congressman Sam Licardo, thank you so much for joining us. Coming up, J.D. vance heads to a swing state to sell a deeply unpopular Trump agenda. And I show you what Georgia Senator Jon Ossif had to say about that Next. Vice President J.D. vance was sent out today to do the impossible, selling the people of Georgia on Donald Trump's unpopular big, beautiful bill. It is damage control as Democrats visit red states and districts to warn about the pain Trump's bill is likely to cause them. And Georgians already know what's at stake. Most voters are opposed to the bill under which, according to KFF, 500,000 of them, roughly 14 million Americans nationwide, could lose their health insurance over the next 10 years. Joining our conversation, Democratic strategist and Columbia University professor, MSNBC political analyst Basil Smichel. Claire is also back with us. You know, this is part of the thing about being vice president. You get to do a lot of jobs nobody else wants to do. But the fact that they know they have to go out and sell this when there isn't that much to sell. They're going to focus on this idea that there are tax cuts for working families. And what they mean by that is no tax on tips, which I think he will conveniently choose not to mention sunsets in 2028 and the plans for families, which honestly are good. You know, the fact that all of a sudden you have some type of stipend for childcare, it just you can't assess it in a vacuum.

[Claire McCaskill]

Well, and you know, as I've said to everyone, really what everybody needs to do is ask every Republican you see that tries to sell you on this bill. Just explain one thing to me. Why is the tax cut for overtime and tips temporary and the tax cut for billionaires jets are permanent? To me, that kind of is all you gotta say, right?

[Alicia Menendez]

It operates as a rhetorical question.

[Claire McCaskill]

It's a rhetorical question, but the stuff for the rich people is permanent. The stuff for working people, they're only putting in to fool people for a couple of years until the election's over. It is so cynical. It is so bad. And the idea that they're out there with a straight face acting like, well, we've really taken care of the working people when in reality all they're doing is, you know, putting lipstick on a pig.

[Alicia Menendez]

Right. Which is particularly important for them given that they do see a realignment. They believe that they have these working class voters who were able to be a substantial part of their electorate in the last election. They know they would have to maintain them, and yet they haven't actually done anything for them in the little that they have done.

[Basil Smichel]

That's true. I heard you talking about Latino voters earlier. I think the same is true from some of the conversations I've had with Asian American voters in the way that they're looking and voting. And so it's a really critical time for Democrats if they want to be able to win back any of those lost voters or constituencies. But your initial comment I think is true that we tend to think of the job as the vice president like Sisyphus. Right. Rolling the Boulder uphill. And these notes win situations. But this is different not only because vice presidents tend to be effective surrogates for their presidents. There really is no surrogate operation for Donald Trump. It's just Donald Trump. Right. So you put J.D. vance out there to take all of these hits and it sort of takes away the conversation about will he or won't he run in 20 in four years and sort of continues to elevate Donald Trump. But it also, to your point, Senator, there's a lot of back in this bill that Georgians already know a lot about. So no matter what positive language and messaging he can come out there with, there's a ton of other stuff that Democrats can come back with to say, actually you're wrong, that a lot of the benefits do accrete to the top 20% income owners in this state. So tell me now how this actually benefits me. And when you kind of layer on top of that a lot of the so the symbolism of a J.D. vance and his what he's supposed to represent for that rural vote for that working class voter and recognize that people like Stacey Abrams have already gone into those areas and kind of laid foundation for what they should be, those voters should be looking at also talking about the voter suppression that took place there. And it's sort of been at a point where those voters are primed to look at J.D. vance and say, I don't believe you. And I think that's actually a good place for Democrats to be, you know, whenever he makes these visits.

[Alicia Menendez]

Well, especially Claire, because this isn't theoretical to them. Right. Living with the realities of what this legislation has wrought. It was reported this week that Evans Memorial Hospital, which is a small rural hospital in Georgia, was forced to cut $3.3 million annually because of Trump's tax bill. The hospital is saying they might have to cut the ICU. You're talking about a place Donald Trump won with 70% of the vote last year. So how do you reconcile that for gender dance?

[Claire McCaskill]

I think there is a misconception among many people that are in Congress that Medicaid is something that is primarily for people who live in urban areas. The reality is there are more people per capita on Medicaid in rural America than there are in urban America. And it is going to be devastating to rural health care. And you know, listen, I get it. J.D. vance is getting a hard job, but bless his heart, I mean, he's taken like eight vacations, he's well rested. I mean, he was on the ski slopes five days after he got the.

[Alicia Menendez]

But he had to walk through scary union stations. So it probably undid all of the.

[Claire McCaskill]

Rest of the shut down the Taj Mahal, he shut down the Coliseum, he shut down Disney World for his family. So he's getting a lot of breaks from this tough job he has. But I will agree that selling this bill is one of the toughest one he has because I think most Americans know better.

[Alicia Menendez]

Go ahead.

[Basil Smichel]

No, just because there's an interesting sort of add on to this conversation and it's with what's happening in Texas when you and we've talked about this, this sort of apartheid state that it seems like they're trying to do to create when they draw these lines. It's also important to note that this bill, along with other budget negotiations in D.C. is all about pushing these block grants to states. Right. So if you're a Republican governor or Republican legislature of a state. And you're looking not only at the effects of this bill, this tax bill, but also thinking about the lines and they've been drawn. I just go, my mind goes to, well, how are the governors going to take all of this money that they now have at their disposal and at their discretion, and how are they going to spend that in the state? Are they going to, are you going to have Georgians among other voters from other states in the top 20% getting all of these breaks? And with the way the lines are drawn now the governors can spend the money that they get at their discretion in those districts, helping those voters. So what happens to everybody else? That's an argument that the Democrats really have to be on the ground to make.

[Alicia Menendez]

Well, and it's an argument that will be prosecuted in the state legislature because they're the ones who are going to have to figure out how to fill those voids. All right, no one's going anywhere. There are some brand new polling that shows majorities of Americans are worried about the state of our democracy. We're going to talk about that after a quick break.

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[Alicia Menendez]

We are back with Basil and with Claire. I want you both to take a listen to what Senator Jon Ossoff told us last night where he was connecting Vance going to Georgia, needing to sell this awful bill. And what we're watching out of Texas.

[Jon Ossoff]

Well, there's a reason that they're scrambling to redraw maps in Texas ahead of the midterms is because there's a big Democratic wave forming because their agenda is so darn unpopular. I mean, you can't go just about anywhere in the country and sell an agenda that is defunding hospitals and nursing homes to cut taxes for the wealthiest people in the country. That bill is like 20 points underwater in Georgia. And the vice President is coming to do damage control because they realize that even in a purple state like Georgia, the public is opposed to what they're doing.

[Alicia Menendez]

So lots of things can be true at the same time. It can be true that this legislation is deeply unpopular and that Americans have focused on the fact that this budget bill is unpopular and they don't actually like what it does. It can be true that Republicans are having a very hard time recruiting cash in Senate races that they care very much about. It can be true that they are so nervous about the House that they are doing mid district, sorry, mid decade redistricting. I am not convinced that that all adds up to a big blue wave. Your sense of where we are in.

[Claire McCaskill]

This moment, I think you're perfectly right on in terms of saying, wait a minute, all of these things don't mean that it is a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump' policies are going to be defeated next year. I would rather than looking at all of that, I think more and more it's very important that we look at independent voters. There's been a lot of talk because the New York Times article that Democratic registration is down. There are still more Democrats registered in America than Republicans first. But secondly, we now have over 40% of people calling themselves independents. Both parties are unpopular. I think the movement that I am most interested in now is what is going to happen with all the people that say pox on both your houses. How can the Democrats convince independent voters that they are the party they should be voting for? And are we on the precipice of there being a third independent party because the two parties have become so unpopular? I don't know about that. The two party system is deeply entrenched in the way our rules are set up for our Democracy. But, but if I were running in a purple state, I would be hyper focused, not on what the Democratic base is saying in polling and not what the MAGA base is saying in polling, but that wide swath of voters that frankly, they're the ones that decide who gets the Electoral college votes in the swing states and frankly, who will go to the Senate from Georgia.

[Alicia Menendez]

So, Bez, I want to hold that discontent and put it side by side with some new polling. This is a poll from Reuters out today. 55% of Americans, including 46% of Republicans, say that the ongoing, ongoing redistricting plans are bad for democracy. Nearly half of Republicans, they do not like what Trump and Abbott have done. Do you think that question plays?

[Basil Smichel]

Listen, I do. And for something that I've been thinking a lot about, it's sort of the gamification of our politics right now that there is this interest by Republicans to take some very complex and important issues and simplify them to the point where we're only talking about winners and losers. And what the Republicans have decided to do is that they want to win. This isn't about good government. But for the Democrats, this is also a break the glass in case of emergency moment. Right. Because the Republican desire to win at all costs, we've seen, not just going back several years, but we saw that right before the election. I've said this all the time. Project 2025 was not a five year plan. It was a 180 day plan for them to do as much as they could in a shorter period of time. Why? Because they knew if they stretched out, they couldn't win because he'd be talking about it for too long and the negative aspects of it would set in. So the purpose for doing all of this is only to win. And I think one of the things that, you know, and I get the points about the concern about whether there will or will not be a blue wave. So those independent voters are going to be really critical to the future of the Democratic Party, oddly enough. And the party really has to figure out a way to just not take their foot off the gas. Because yes, what's happening in Texas, maybe that's a foregone conclusion, but are the Democratic governors coming together and saying what is our response to not just this, but the next several items that are going to come down the pike because there will be more. So rather than play defense, got to stay on offense. Got to be on offense.

[Alicia Menendez]

I want to look at another number in that, that same poll from Reuters, Claire, found that 57% of Americans fear American democracy is in danger. That includes 4 in 10 Republicans. I think sort of the biggest top line there is, folks are paying attention and that is a good thing.

[Claire McCaskill]

The norms, I think it is easy to get numb because there's a norm broken every day. I mean, you think about what used to be a big deal. I mean the controversy over the khaki suit, right?

[Alicia Menendez]

What a time to be alive.

[Basil Smichel]

The audacity of taupe.

[Claire McCaskill]

Aren't we nostalgic for that? Grabbing the headlines for day after day, especially on Fox News. And now the things that are going on, I mean this ridiculous photo op that's going on in D.C. that's not really making people safer. They've only arrested two people on homicide, hundreds on immigration and low level crimes, but only two. And the people who are ones who should be investigating the homicides are the DEA that tracks the drug cartels. That's where the violence occurs, is in drug trafficking. You know what they're doing, they're standing around like the National Guard is for photo ops, the dea. So people are seeing this and they are absolutely rejecting especially I think independent voters. And let's not Forget there's about 20% of the Republicans that aren't on board board for the Trump style of democracy. So I do think we have a chance. I just don't think we can take it for granted.

[Basil Smichel]

And I'm sorry, and I'd just say, because I don't want to not say that I do think Democrats are primed to actually show up in this next election because so much of what we're seeing, that performative aspect of D.C. is affecting Black and brown people to the heart of the party.

[Alicia Menendez]

Indeed it is. Basil Snickel, Claire McCaskill, thank you both so much for spending some time with us. We're going to sneak in another quick break. Be right back.

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This is Comedy Bang Bang, the podcast, the promo and in 30 seconds I'm going to tell you why you should check out the show. I, the host, Scott Aukerman have a light hearted conversation with famous celebrities like Jon Hamm, Alison Williams, Phoebe Bridgers, Jason Alexander, Natasha Lyonne, Bob Odenkirk, just to name a few things. Go a little off the rails when different eccentric characters and oddballs drop by to be interviewed as well. Each week is a blend of conversations and character work from your favorite comedians as well as some new hilarious voices. Comedy Bang Bang the Podcast. Listen every Monday wherever you get your podcasts.