← Deadline: White House
Deadline: White House
“Donald Trump’s performance at this week’s NATO summit”
00:41:48
July 8, 2026; 4pm: Nicolle Wallace and guests break down Trump’s interesting performance at this week’s NATO summit and how European leaders are running out of patience when it comes to Trump’s “me, me, me” approach to geopolitics.
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- [00:00]
Rachel Maddow
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- [01:05]
Nicole Wallace
Hi there, everyone. It's four o' clock in the east. So the ceasefire with Iran that was never really a ceasefire, now appears to really be over. We have ended trade. All trade with Spain and Japan is now apparently an Islamic republic. If all or any of that is news to you, then you've been fortunate enough to have missed Donald Trump's performance on the world stage at this week's NATO summit, where in a series of bizarre press conferences, Donald Trump ran the gamut of sounding merely uninformed to downright addled and crazy. Take a listen to some of the highlights. Is the ceasefire over? Is the ceasefire done? Is the MOU dead?
- [01:48]
Donald Trump
It's a very interesting question to me. I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum. I told the story Yesterday. We had 111 missiles shot by the Islamic Republic of Japan. They were shot at the aircraft. Jcpoc. What a terrible. What a terrible deal. I call it the Obama nuclear waste deal. I don't want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain, please. Including visits. Okay, we don't want anything to do. You know who's number one on TikTok?
- [02:23]
Nicole Wallace
I am.
- [02:24]
Donald Trump
I'm number one on TikTok you have a question for President Putin? You have a question for President Putin? Not, not so much. What would you like to ask him? Because I'm going to ask him that question.
- [02:41]
Nicole Wallace
He's not sitting next to President Putin. I don't know what tic tac is. The Islamic Republic of Japan came out of his mouth. Marco Rubio is going to have to start standing next to him and translating. But unsurprisingly, Donald Trump's incomprehensible, unhinged, embarrassing, uninformed me, me, me display there and his approach to geopolitics has had an effect. It appears to have finally exasperated and exhausted European leaders. Patience on that. The New York Times reports this quote, a major motif of this year's NATO summit has to do with European leaders deciding whether it's politically advantageous to at last dispense with the niceties and fight back against Trump as the Spanish and Italian leaders have started to do. The time when all European heads of state were playing nice with the mercurial American president is decidedly over an exasperation that seems only likely to grow as Donald Trump's war with Iran threatens to tank everyone's economies. The New York Times reports this quote, the global economy is set to slow sharply in 2026 after the war with Iran disrupted energy supply chains and triggered a fresh bout of inflation. The International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday. Forecasts reflect the damaging toll from the decision by the US And Israel to attack Iran this year. Donald Trump exhausting not just Americans patience, but now the world's as he humiliates himself on the world stage is where we begin again today with some of our favorite experts in France. Staff writer at the Atlantic, Tom Nichols is here. He's a professor emeritus of national security affairs at the U.S. naval War College. Also joining us PAC News Senior political columnist and national affairs analyst John Heilman is back. And former ambassador to Russia and international affairs analyst Michael McFaul is here. Ambassador, I'm only half joking about having translator there. He speaks now so incomprehensibly and I guess it's old fashioned, but I remember when the world hung on every word that an American president and an American ambassador, an American diplomat and an American spokesperson said, and now we're all supposed to look the other way when he describes Japan as an Islamic republic and thinks he's sitting next to Putin.
- [05:03]
Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
It was crazy. Just I'm glad you pointed it out. A lot of people don't think it's crazy anymore. Right? We've gotten so used to him speaking this way, we just give him a pass on all this. But that clip you just showed, these, in other circumstances just a few years ago, would have been major international crises. Today, this is just the way the President talks. And as you also said, rambling all over the place about different issues, all having to do with him personally was also something very striking from the press conference. But on the substance, there's another thing that's very striking. In my world, everybody is calling this a success, this summit, and you know why? Because President Trump didn't walk out. He didn't blow up the NATO alliance. He didn't say he was going to leave. And that, that is the bar of success, I think, also says a lot about where we are in terms of our relations with our allies today.
- [06:03]
Nicole Wallace
Tom, the bar has to be lowered because world leaders have their own electorates that they're responsive to. But that the bar has been so unceremoniously lowered, like so that it's underground seems like something that should get more notice among American civic leaders. I mean, this is the guy that Jeff Bezos capitulated to and stood shoulder to shoulder. This is the guy that all the fanciest law firms in New York are now doing pro bono work for, his Commerce Department. This is the guy that universities capitulated to. And this is a guy who doesn't know the difference between Japan and Iran.
- [06:45]
Rachel Maddow
It's almost like we have a relative in the room and there's something deeply wrong with him and we've all agreed to not talk about it. But there is something deeply wrong with him. His friends know it, his critics know it, his staff, I'm sure, knows it. The world knows it, world leaders know it, and most importantly, our enemies know it, which is why they don't take him seriously, which is why nobody, as you pointed out, you know, once upon a time, people hung on the word of President. That's why nobody hangs on his words. They, they kind of do, but mostly out of freakish curiosity to see what kind of wild thing he's going to say next, not because his words have any inherent meaning or reflect policy. You know, I spent years teaching students that when the president speaks, it's policy. And you must pay attention to when the president speaks, because nobody can contradict him now. You know, are we really cutting off all trade with Spain? Who knows? Maybe, maybe not. It might have just been a stray electron, you know, caroming around inside his brain pan. Who knows? But this is really dangerous because in the middle of all this stuff and we can laugh about, you know, the Islamic Republic of Japan and all of that, but he made several statements about an ongoing war that the United States is losing, and no one's even trying to pretend that they can make any sense of it. And I'll just add that one last thing that you just brought up. If this were any other president, this would be a national crisis. I mean, Joe Biden got somebody's name wrong and it was headlines. The president gets all kinds of things wrong completely, you know, is out to lunch at an important NATO summit and, you know, it's Wednesday.
- [08:44]
Nicole Wallace
Well, as a reward for your astute point, I'm going to show you more of what he said today. This is a serious question about his security. His security is a legitimate and important question. And here's what he was asked and how he answered it.
- [09:02]
Rachel Maddow
Stephen Nelson from the New York Post. I'd like you to address speculation that you're leaving Ankara, not in the new Air Force One, because of security concerns involving Iran. You've spoken today twice about them possibly assassinating you and possibly being successful. Did that concern have something to do?
- [09:22]
Donald Trump
Well, I speak about it a lot because, you know, the life of a president is very dangerous. It's 5.2%. You know what a race car driver is 1/10 of 1%. A bull rider. That looks pretty dangerous to me. It's 1/10 of 1%. No, it's 5.2%, is you don't make it. There was another list came out yesterday, and I'm, I'm number one on. I like being number one on TikTok better, but I'm number one on the list for killing. Go ahead.
- [09:58]
Rachel Maddow
Hey, Sean McCreesh, New York Times. But why aren't you flying the new plane home?
- [10:03]
Donald Trump
Say what?
- [10:03]
Rachel Maddow
Why aren't you flying on the new Air Force One home?
- [10:06]
Donald Trump
It's flying to Europe to one of the big bases, two or three of the big bases where we can show it to the people and we'll be going home by normal methods. But we, we have it going to Europe to a couple of bases, actually, one in particular, but it's going to go to a couple of bases. Stop. So the soldiers can see it because it's truly magnificent.
- [10:31]
Nicole Wallace
I mean, Tom Nichols, I'm again guilty of trying to understand what he's trying to say. And is he trying to say he's sending the plane on tour to showcase it to the men and women of the military. Is that how you understood that?
- [10:45]
Rachel Maddow
Maybe. I suspect what he's really saying is that because this version of Air Force One does not have a lot of the systems, important defense systems, that the American version of Air Force One has, that his people in the Secret Service just didn't want him on it, which would be a completely understandable thing. If we're up to me, he would never set foot on this plane. I mean, you don't take a 747 given to you by a foreign country, even one that you might be friendly with, and let the President ride around in it with secure communications, talking to his advisors. You know, even if they pulled out every stud and ripped out every carpet, I just would never let the President on that plane. But I suspect that this air show story is because his advisor said, you know, we can't send you into a war zone because Turkey is right next to where military operations are taking place without the kind of protections that the actual Air Force One has on it. So it's, I think it's a typical Trump moment of this is a, that would sound bad. And so he's got to come up with a story about how really it's just because the plane's so awesome. He, you know, everybody wants to see it, but I don't think that's the real reason. I think it's a genuine security problem.
- [12:10]
Nicole Wallace
John Heilman, a Danish reporter, fell to the Danes today to deal with the issue of self respect and how leaders do what, what Ambassador McFaul just addressed. Sort of lower the bar and then take the winds where they can get them. Let me show you what that sounded like,
- [12:28]
Donald Trump
Mark.
- [12:29]
Rachel Maddow
You sit next to Donald Trump in moments where he talks about conquering Greenland, talks about lashing out at allies like Spain, starting trade wars, things that it doesn't seem like the old Margot would approve of. Does this have any effect on your self respect when you sit next to him like that and say nothing? You know, what I always do is acknowledge when praise is due. And I think we should praise Donald Trump for the fact that NATO is so much stronger.
- [13:00]
Nicole Wallace
I remember pointing out once in 2017 that we're going to get to the point where Republicans on Capitol Hill will just clap for him when he zips his fly. Like the bar is so low that when, like his parts aren't hanging out, the gop, you know, all the guys that used to care about balanced budgets and character would just be happy that he like had his, his, his belt and his fly up. That's where we are on the world stage now. It's, it's appalling.
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John Heilman
Well, I'd Say, Nicole, if he. If he keeps his fly up and his pants on, that's. That's at this point, merits a standing ovation.
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Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
Not.
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John Heilman
Not.
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Donald Trump
Yeah.
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John Heilman
Not mere. Not. Not merely. I mean, I'll give the guy a round of applause if that happens. I mean, because the. Because the alternative.
- [13:43]
Nicole Wallace
Every woman in America is saying, me, too, right now.
- [13:46]
John Heilman
Yes, yes, seriously. I also just want to ask about that previous clip, like, the whole 5.2% thing. Does anybody understand that? I mean, I understand he's saying that. That American presidents are targets of security threats and potential assassinations, but the numbers that he was spouting there, I have no idea what those correspond to or what they mean. It was just a complete gibberish, as far as I can tell. I mean, really, I don't really. I'm asking the pan. I'm asking the panel, like, does anybody understand what he's saying?
- [14:18]
Nicole Wallace
My guess. And again, this is my own sickness of trying to figure out what he's trying to say, and it's because I have a toddler, actually, who just, like, went through this. But I think what he's trying to say is that the odds of making it maybe if you're president are. I don't know. I don't know what he's trying to say. Ambassador McFaul, you want to take a stab at it?
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John Heilman
I mean.
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Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
Well, my guess is.
- [14:40]
Nicole Wallace
Anyone.
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Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
Right. The number of assassinated Presidents is probably 5% of all presidents. That's my guess. The live TV, doing math. But you're underscoring something. I just think it's important we keep focusing on. He just says things all over the time, all the time. We don't know if they're true or not. Another one off the top of my head. He said $19.2 trillion are being invested this year in the United States. And I went to try to verify that claim. I found no evidence to verify that claim. And that just happens every single time he's giving a press conference. But the other thing I wanted to get back to Rachel, that you said also, you know, he says things whether they're true or not, whether they're policy or not. You know, it used to be that a president said something, it was policy, but you never know if it's true or not. And sometimes that's when he says things that I think are not in America's national interest. So cutting off all trade and contact with Spain, that is not in America's national security interest or national economic interest. And when he says it, somebody should be refuting it. That we just listened to it, it's like, okay, this is the new policy. But then the other part is equally true. So he said something encouraging today from my point of view. He said that he's decided that we should give a license to do joint production to make Patriot interceptors with the Ukrainians. That's fantastic. If it's true. It's not.
- [16:14]
Rachel Maddow
It's.
- [16:14]
Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
That's for the long term. Right. They need Patriot interceptors today. But is it going to be policy? Did anybody ask Lockheed Martin if they signed up for this? Have any of the details been worked out about it? And so even when there's good news, you don't even know if it's true.
- [16:32]
Nicole Wallace
Well, and I think the other thing is when you have news news, sometimes it gets buried in the insanity. This is real news. Here's where Donald Trump thinks Iran's nuclear material is. Let me play this for you, Tom Nichols, you said that dealing with the Iranians is a waste of time.
- [16:50]
Michelle Norris
How do you plan to get the
- [16:51]
Nicole Wallace
nuclear material and the nuclear assurances that you want?
- [16:54]
Donald Trump
Well, we've already got the nuclear material because it's so far underground, nobody's going to be able to get it except us because we have the equipment that can get it. But I call it the nuclear test. The nuclear material is so far down underneath the mountain, and now that's been determined that it would take massive machinery that we have that no other country has, they can't get.
- [17:18]
Nicole Wallace
So you have no plans to go
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John Heilman
in boots on the ground?
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Donald Trump
Why would I go in now? I go in when they're completely either eliminated or whatever or an agreement's made.
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Nicole Wallace
I mean, Tom Mickels is. It's underground because that's where they're hiding it. It's not underground. And I mean, what I knew it was going to catch up with us, that he doesn't like intelligence, that he doesn't consume a pdb. But it's not underground because it got lost there. It's underground because that's where they hid it in anticipation of strikes.
- [17:50]
Rachel Maddow
Well, I'm sure he means that some of it is buried, but you can, you know, you can tell that when an, when a question stresses him out because he starts making stuff up and, you know, his hands start going and, you know, pretty soon he loses the bubble. I think what you saw in that answer is that when something has gone wrong, Trump changes the terms of the question. So he started off with we want unconditional surrender. All the, I call it the nuclear dust. All of the nuclear dust. All of the materials. And then when he can't get that, he says, oh, no, problem solved. We didn't need it anyway. Like, he's done with regime change. Well, I was never interested in a regime change. Well, you're pretty interested in it the night you started the war and you told the Iranians that they were going to take their government back. But that's a very Trump approach, to simply wave away things. And to go back to Mike's point, it makes policy and communicating policy and formulating policy impossible because the president doesn't live on the same planet as everybody else says whatever gets him through the next 10 seconds of his day to try to dominate the point or evade the questioner. And so, you know, the rest of the world, the country, everybody else has to deal with this shifting kaleidoscope of unreal assumptions. Well, it's underground. We don't need it anyway. I was never interested in regime change. The Iranians are great people, except now they're scum and so on. And it just goes on and on and on because it's all only about Donald Trump trying to compensate for constantly being humiliated in public. And everybody else just simply has to deal with it and work around it. And again, it's like. It's like having that, you know, that. That relative in the middle of the room and, you know, everybody kind of looking away and trying not to say anything that's going to. I mean, you saw that with Mark Ruda. You know, it's like. Well, we just sort of, you know, try not to set him off. We give him grace. He didn't blow anything up. So it was another good day for Naito. But that, I think that's what you saw in that answer. He has no idea. And you're right, he's unbreakable. He doesn't read intelligence. He doesn't care about it. He just wants. It's very childlike. He wants the world to conform to what he wants it to be. And this war is really, I think, the first time where circumstances have pushed back and made it impossible for him to simply wish what he wants into existence.
- [20:30]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, I mean, he's met an enemy in Iran that he can't defeat. He has a consequence that he can't sell to his base, which has bought absolutely everything else, from Access Hollywood to tariffs to just about everything else. And we're left. I have to just pull the curtain back. Like, we're left as a press corps covering things that are nonsensical, but because it matters what he says, and because other world leaders bend around the craziest person in the room, especially when that person is the American president, they go back to their countries and their populations and they have to deal with what happens. So thank you for letting us just show you instead of telling you what happened. There's actually more everyone sticks around. Also ahead for us, it's been described as must win. That's the Senate race in Maine. It is part of the Democrats urgent, urgent campaign to retake the majority in the US Senate from the Republicans. Republicans. This fall, we'll look at where national Democrats are going to focus in addition to Maine, after Graham Platner's campaign is, at least at this hour, either on life support or nearing some sort of transition. Plus, Donald Trump and his Justice Department putting the safety of the American people at risk if they don't comply with his bogus voting demands. Another move in Donald Trump's campaign to control our elections. And later in the broadcast, Donald Trump again ordered to pay up to pay Jean Carroll the money she is owed and then some. So what happens if he doesn't? We'll get to all those stories and much more when Deadly White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere today.
- [22:11]
Rachel Maddow
Ever since I was young, I've watched
- [22:12]
Nicole Wallace
people working hard, chasing opportunity, making sacrifices,
- [22:16]
Rachel Maddow
doing everything they can to build a better life.
- [22:19]
Michelle Norris
And now we're shining a light on what matters most, our economy, our national identity, our democracy, our future. The stakes have never been higher. It's all on the line.
- [22:30]
Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
On the line with Alicia Menendez, weekdays at 12:00pm Eastern on Ms. Now,
- [22:43]
Nicole Wallace
As Trump's tenuous cease fire with Iran officially falls apart, our friend and current guest Tom Nichols writes this in the Atlantic about its demise. Quote, if Donald Trump ever had any control over the war he started with Iran, he has lost it. The Iranians are now setting the terms of this conflict and routinely humiliating the American president. The cease fire Trump declared last month, a move probably meant to both soothe international markets and avert legislative action from the United States Congress, never really existed because neither side ever ceased firing. Trump is now going through something like the stages of wartime grief, denial that America failed, anger which has led to renewed attacks and then bargaining as if the Iranians could somehow be bought off like a gang of calcitrant construction workers in New York. None of it has worked. Depression and acceptance await. We're back with Tom, John and Ambassador McFall. Tom, do you think anyone will communicate this bluntly to Donald Trump? What is clear, I guess importantly, to an increasing number of Americans. But to the Iranians,
- [23:56]
Rachel Maddow
no, he's got Pete Hegseth sitting right there with him, saying, on your order, Mr. President, we'll go back at it. We'll take, you know, that's how people like Hegseth keep their jobs. They're doing great. Mr. President, you're in charge. Everything's going well. Things are not going well. We have lost this war. The Iranians are clearly driving events, choosing what to do, when to do it, gauging their interests and being willing to accept damage after they inflict damage in the Gulf. So, you know, Donald Trump is kidding himself and again, trying to wish circumstances into existence just by saying them. But even today, you saw him start off by saying, well, if they don't play ball, I'll commit war crimes. Basically, I'll attack desalinization plants and electrical plants and bridges. And then by afternoon saying, well, we're not in it for the long term. I don't think this is going to happen. You know, I taught, as I said in the piece, I taught strategy for a long time, and there weren't a whole lot of rules. But normally you don't threaten your opponent and then, you know, two hours later say, nah, you know, we're not going to do any of that. And the Iranians, I think, are used to it. I think they know they're in charge, and that's why they just don't pay any attention to them at this point.
- [25:18]
Nicole Wallace
Ambassador McFaul, what is your sense of how this impacts our relations and conversations, even with the very, very low bar that I think you accurately sort of described at the beginning with our European allies, whose economies are likely to take the hardest hit soonest?
- [25:40]
Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
So, Nicole, I think I said Rachel before in my jet lag, Nicole, I was flattered.
- [25:47]
Nicole Wallace
I'll never correct that one.
- [25:50]
Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
I got up at 2am today. I just got back from Europe, and apropos of your question, I just was in Europe in several NATO countries, there was deep apprehension, of course, about this summit in Ankara. So the fact that there's not the worst case scenarios. So sigh of relief. But secondly, I mean, Tom's point is so important here that, that we've lost control. The President has lost control of this war. There's never been a ceasefire. He signed a document with great fanfare, but it didn't end the war. And I want to remind everybody, because we forget, because he says so many things all the time, what he is trying to end this. The fighting about is, is to open the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Hormuz was open before he launched this war against Iran. So he's not trying to get rid of their nuclear program. He's not trying to end their missile production. He's not trying to stop support for terrorism. He's not trying to foment democratic regime change. Those are all the things he said the war was about. He's trying to clean up a problem that his war caused, and he has no strategy to achieve that. So this idea we're going to bomb and it's going to change anything in the negotiations, it hasn't worked in the past. I don't see why it works in the future. And that makes America look weak, makes us look weak in Europe, makes us look weak in the Middle east, it makes us look weak in Asia. And that is dangerous for our long term national security interests.
- [27:30]
Nicole Wallace
You know what's amazing, Heilman? I think the only parts of this conversation that would track in Trump's brain, whatever he's still working with, is this weakness. And you think about the choice he made at the beginning of his second term to bail on Zelensky. And he was there with him today, and there may be some policy moves that are favorable, but if he wanted to look strong and he wanted to win his much ballyhooed peace prize, siding with winners was available to him. And he walked away. And he got his Pentagon to walk away, and he got his intelligence agencies to essentially stop helping Zelensky. So he throws in with a war in the Middle east, which is precisely what he promised his base and his coalition he would never, ever, ever, ever, ever do. He starts it and he's lost. I mean, to me, it's also a window into the weakness and the fecklessness and the lack of any sort of MAGA people inside his inner circle in the White House that he's making, the choices he's making.
- [28:32]
John Heilman
I think, Nicole, that it's a window into the fact that to some extent, although it is true what we have all said, which is that the notion of being an anti war president has always been something that Trump campaigned on. He campaigned on in 2016 and 2020 and 2024, that his actual commitment to that conviction is less firm than all the repetition of it suggests, and is about as firm as it turns out as it is to all the rest of his policy convictions. I think the reality is that Trump, the number of people around Trump, influencing him on almost anything, is very, very small. And their ideology is mostly Trumpism, not even maga. It's just Trump, what does the boss want? And what we've learned over time, but partly from Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan's book, but from other reporting too, is that Trump was in fact more hawkish on Iran than people understood. Going back for many months. He was aided and abetted and reinforced in that by Bibi Netanyahu and decided to do this and by his own the illusion of how easy it would be in Venezuela, by his success in Venezuela and having been able to do that in a cost free way. And I think it's hard to know what goes on inside Donald Trump's head. It's not a place that any of us have the capacity to navigate. We don't have the compass or the GPS that can guide us through there. But I can't help but think that he wakes up that now if he has any moments of real self reflection, he doesn't wake up and think, I wish that I didn't do this because I don't think Trump ever takes that kind of responsibility. But I think he understands that this has gone wrong and that the options that he has, he keeps going back to the same playbook which is basically threaten annihilation, but also suggest that, yeah, we're open to negotiation and that to Tom's point, just gives Iran the whip hand in this. In this. And I'll tell you, the one group of people who are most upset today is the entirety of the GOP caucus on Capitol Hill who look at this and say, I can't believe energy is spiking again. We are screwed.
- [30:35]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah. And the men and women of the military and their families, I mean, CENTCOM has confirmed that strikes are now ongoing. So, so that puts, that puts a lot of families on edge as well. Tom Nichols, Ambassador McFaul, Tom, thank you for writing and dropping this piece right in time for our conversation. Ambassador, thank you for joining us. And a quick turnaround from Europe. Hallman sticks around. When we come back, how Democrats move on from this current news cycle that has ensnared their Senate candidate in Maine to continue their rather desperate push to take back control of the Senate in November to push back against Donald Trump. We'll get to the latest next.
- [31:20]
Rachel Maddow
Simone Sanders Townsend and I have known each other for more than a decade, tussling over politics and policy when she worked in the White House. And I reported on it.
- [31:29]
Nicole Wallace
And now we're friends and colleagues and on our podcast, Clock it, we are positioning ourselves at the intersection of culture and politics.
- [31:37]
Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
Clock it is where we talk about
- [31:38]
Rachel Maddow
what we see and hear in the news so you can start to clock it, too.
- [31:43]
Rachel Maddow Show Announcer
Clock it with Simone and Eugene. All episodes available now.
- [31:52]
Nicole Wallace
I think candidate Platner needs to have left the race yesterday and become ex candidate Platner because it's too important here. We had a saying on the Hill about Susan Collins. She was always there when we didn't need her. That is not these times. We need people who are going to fight when it matters, not when it doesn't. And that's why Maine is so incredibly important as we work to take back a majority in the Senate.
- [32:16]
Michelle Norris
So he needs to get out right away.
- [32:19]
Nicole Wallace
That was New Jersey's Governor Mikey Sherrill on the national implications of the Maine Senate race as Democrats wait for the imploding candidacy of Graham Platner to come to an end. Flipping Maine is seen as essential to the hope that Democrats have of retaking control of the US Senate and putting a real check on Donald Trump. But the events of this week have forced Democrats nationwide to turn their attention toward other major races, some in states that have been Trump strongholds. With or without Maine. Democrats must flip four U.S. senate seats in November in states that Trump won three times. States like North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Alaska. New polling from the New York Times makes it look possible, gives Democrats real hope in each of those five races. And Donald Trump's rapidly plunging approval ratings are helping to boost Democratic aspirations. A new Economist YouGov poll out shows Donald Trump at 35%. I want to bring into our coverage senior contributing editor, my colleague Michelle Norris. John Heilman is still here. John, I know you've been looking at the Senate map. Take me through how you see it.
- [33:27]
John Heilman
Well, I'll give you my sense, Nicole, of if we, if we could put the top 40 Democratic strategists who have a view of the whole country under sodium pannothal and ask them to rate these races. You would start at the top of the easiest of those. We got to pick up four out of those six. The six, including Maine. Maine. We'll come back to why it's so important, but it was always seen as the most likely pick up. Second is North Carolina, where the, where Democrats have very strong candidate in Cooper, who's one statewide, and his former governor, et cetera, et cetera. And then below that, I think you'd move to Alaska or Mary Peltola is a uniquely well suited candidate to, to the, to that state. There's a lot of people who think that's the third most likely Democratic pickup. And then it's kind of A toss up, I'd say, between those, those, the last three there, Ohio, Iowa and Texas, I think because of the structural factors, Texas is at the bottom of that list. Even though we can say what we want about James Talarico, he's very talented, he's running against a particularly vulnerable Republican. But that is the deepest red of those states. We can't remember a time when Texas has voted for a statewide Democrat. We have to go back to Ann Richards for that. And we know that Republicans have dominated that state at the presidential level, whereas Ohio and Iowa, at least in this century, have been states that have elected Democrats to statewide office and that Democratic presidential candidates have carried. And that brings me back to Maine and why Maine's so important.
- [34:59]
Donald Trump
Right?
- [34:59]
John Heilman
Because what's the one thing that stands out on that list of six is that the five that I just talked about, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska, those are all states Donald Trump carried in 2024. You know which state? The only one on the list that wasn't carried by Donald Trump is Maine, where Kamala Harris took the state, the popular vote in the state, and that is a state that at the presidential level, I was actually a little surprised to go back and I looked it up this morning, has not voted for a Republican in terms of the popular vote. They split the electoral votes in Maine according to congressional districts. But that is, Maine is a state that has not voted for a Republican in terms of the popular vote for president since 1988 when George Herbert Walker Bush, who was a part time resident of Maine, won the state. So all this is a state that is, it's not an easy pickup. You know, we know that Susan Collins has been, has been resilient in her ability to hold on there. She, she, she won the state by 9 points in 2000 when Joe Biden, when, when Joe Biden won it by nine. That's a pretty impressive performance. So we understand she's a tough incumbent to knock off. But that is not a state, that is a red state and it's not a state that really is even a purple state. It's a state that has a Democratic governor and Kamala Harris carried. So that was why everybody looked at Maine and said this is our best pickup opportunity and why this crisis that has now engulfed the Maine race and I think most people believe is going to end, lead to the, going to result in the end of Grant Platner's candidacy. Why that is such a big blow to Democratic hopes to retake the Senate doesn't mean it's impossible. But, man, that was, that was the one that everyone was thinking, well, if we're going to win, if we're going to take back the Senate, it's going to start the road to, it's going to start in Maine.
- [36:47]
Nicole Wallace
I want to bring Michelle in on, on both the platinum race, and I think Sherrod Brown deserves a few minutes of discussion. We'll have that conversation on the other side of a short break with Michelle. Don't go anywhere. We're back with Michelle and John. Michelle, Sherrod Brown doesn't get as much attention and it might aid him, right, to not be part of the national conversation. He's trying to have a conversation with the voters in Ohio who, who know him. But that is a place where the Trump economy has landed with a thud. And it's a state that knows Sherrod Brown very well. What do you, what do you think or what do you hear about that?
- [37:26]
Michelle Norris
Well, no, Sherrod Brown and his wife, who's also, you know, Connie, is also quite popular in the state. Two things that are interesting, I think, about that race, and they relate to Donald Trump and his sagging, his erosion of his support overall, and that's that his, his dropping support among independents. And I think one of the reasons that that race in Ohio has gotten as tight as it is now is because some of those independents are drifting away from Donald Trump and taking another look at, at a candidate like Sherrod Brown who has spent a lot of time talking about the economy, talking about the dignity of work. That was one of the slogans that he's always talking about. And the second thing that's interesting is some of the polls are picking up how that phrase in particular, the dignity of work, is it has a particular resonance with, resonance with younger voters who are really having a hard time in this economy. You know, recent college graduates. This is a very tough economy for all kinds of reasons, in part because of, you know, just the economic winds that are blowing in the wrong direction because of I go back to a place where a number of people who have older, you know, adults living in the basement again, as we saw, you know, during the rough years and in 2008. And that is something that is starting to resonate with him. He's picking up support that, you know, the younger voters who were starting to move toward Donald Trump are now moving back in the Republican Party, in the Democratic, toward the Democratic Party. And you're seeing that in a few other states, but it's most prominent in Ohio.
- [38:53]
Nicole Wallace
What do you make Michelle of the state of Maine, the state of the race in Maine.
- [38:59]
Michelle Norris
Well, you know, at a time when. When there should be enthusiasm for all the reasons that John so eloquently spelled out, instead we see confusion. And it is curious to me that Platner is fighting to have some say in the. In who will replace him and is concerned that the party should not have a role in determining, you know, the party apparatus should not have a role when he basically is a product of the party apparatus. And you could argue that people were more interested perhaps in a good story than. Or a great story than a good and a truly strong candidate. I think that the delay here is really a problem for them and something that probably should have happened much quicker. And figuring out who the replacement is and trying to figure out how the party can get behind them and then trying to figure out if that replace. If the person who replaced. That replaces him still has the kind of progressive leanings that Platner had without seeming like they're tied to Platner at the same time. But it does make the Hill much steeper in Maine. And I think that Senator Collins is probably sitting back and, you know, enjoying all of this right now.
- [40:11]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah. I mean, Heilmann, the winner here is clearly Susan Collins.
- [40:16]
John Heilman
Yeah. Although you could argue that the. That given what we've learned about Graham Platner and given that there are Republicans who have been saying for days, these last few days that they have oppo books that, that. That are much deeper than what we already know about him and much more damaging, and they were praying that he would get past the deadline and they would be stuck with him. They wanted to run against Graham Platner. It may actually be a benefit to Democrats that. That a blessing that they're able to rid themselves of Platner if they can figure out and get. Figure out a candidate, figure out a process to pick a candidate that they can get the state, the party behind. You know, the most recent polling in the New York Times showed that like a third of Platner's support were people who were starting to have doubts about him even before the rape allegation. And so his, His. It looks like he was sort of. It was like the next big scandal, whatever that was, and whenever it came, probably would have killed his candidacy. And so it's not. It's hard to say this is a blessing because it's obviously, you know, in the moment, it's kind of terrible for the party. They at least have a chance now to clean it up, and then they have months in order to try to get the enthusiasm behind that person. But I think whoever that person is, the process is going to be very important though. And if it looks too much like party bosses didn't listen to voters and go through some kind of a process, if it looks like an inside game, there's a chance they'll end up alienating a lot of the people they need to get behind. Whoever it is that candidate turns out to be.
- [41:44]
Nicole Wallace
Well, I'm surprised they're not more worried about alienating women. It's a long time to let a guy accused of rape credibly dictate the terms of getting out of a race. So as they sit around and worry about looking insidery, I think they should worry about looking a little too deferential to an accused rapist. Michelle, thank you for joining us. John Heilman, thank you for spending the whole hour with me today. After a break, a panel of judges weigh in on Trump's obsession with putting his name all over Washington. The latest loss for him is next. An appeals court today rejected Donald Trump's last ditch, pathetic attempt to put his name back on the Kennedy Center. This is real. This is not the Onion. A three judge panel for the U.S. court of Appeals for the D.C. circuit shot down Trump's DOJ request. They had argued that removing Trump's name could, quote, substantially undermine fundraising. But the panel, which included a judge appointed by Donald Trump, found that Trump and the board failed to provide any, quote, specific facts and evidence to support that. We have yet to see his name off the building because a tarp that the administration used to cover up the area is still there. Covering up the area. Here's what Kennedy center board member and congresswoman Joyce Beatty, who brought the original lawsuit, said about the circuit court ruling, quote, his name no longer desecrates this sacred memorial which belongs to the American people. Now it is time for the Trump administration to accept this, comply with the law and take the tarps down. Let you know when we see the tarps coming down. Take the tarps down. I feel like that could be a new slogan coming up for us. Trump and his allies have been very loud about imaginary so called illegal voting. The Justice Department may want to look into the Republican Senate candidate from Texas though. We'll explain next.
- [43:49]
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Rachel Maddow
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