“Few good options to end the war in Iran”

Summary

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Detailed Summary: "Few Good Options to End the War in Iran"

Deadline: White House
Host: Alicia Menendez (in for Nicolle Wallace)
Air Date: March 26, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into the 27th day of the U.S. war with Iran, exploring President Trump’s dwindling options to end the conflict, the mounting domestic and international consequences, and the lack of a coherent strategy. Alicia Menendez leads a discussion with national security and diplomatic experts, including Washington Post’s John Hudson, Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (ret.), and former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman. The conversation outlines the decision-making inside the White House, the risks of military escalation, strain on U.S. resources, collapsing public support, and the shifting political landscape as the war drags on.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. State of the War & Trump's Options

• No Good Off-Ramp for Trump: President Trump is privately signaling the war may end soon but publicly denies any desperation ([01:07]). His peace proposal has been rejected by Iran, and there are no active negotiations.
• Final Blow Scenarios: The Pentagon is considering risky moves, such as seizing Khark Island (Iran’s key oil export hub), capturing territory for safe passage, or blocking Iranian oil exports—all likely to require U.S. boots on the ground ([02:41]).
• Risks of Escalation: Military experts warn these options could prolong or intensify the conflict, not end it.

“Many of the scenarios under discussion would risk prolonging and intensifying the fight rather than bringing it to a dramatic conclusion.” — Axios via Alicia Menendez ([02:35])

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2. Military Analysis: Logistics, Strategy, and Limitations

• Insufficient Troop Levels: U.S. forces (two Marine expeditionary units and an airborne brigade) are not enough for sustained operations in Iran’s challenging terrain ([03:54]).
• Strategy Lacking: Quoting former Defense Secretary Mattis, Menendez notes there’s tactical activity but no overarching strategy or end state.
• Reality Check: Any military gains, like opening the Strait of Hormuz, would be temporary if they aren't tied to a political resolution.

“If you don't have an end state... you're going to waste a lot of lives.” — Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling ([06:04])

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3. Diplomatic Dimensions & Iran’s Perspective

• Diplomacy Losing Ground: The credible threat of force is necessary for negotiation, but destabilization caused by U.S. attacks has hardened Iranian resolve, pushing power to Iran’s most hardline elements—the IRGC ([07:48]).
• Failed Leverage: Attempts to increase leverage through military escalation have failed to bridge divide between U.S. and Iranian demands.

“We now have a more radical... Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is now in charge.” — Wendy Sherman ([08:35])

• No Path to Regime Change: Calls for regime change misunderstand Iran’s resilience and the nationalism provoked by U.S. aggression.

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4. Global & Domestic Repercussions

• Strain on U.S. Resources: The conflict is forcing the Pentagon to consider diverting air defense missiles from Ukraine to the Middle East ([11:07]).
• Logistical Risks: Trying to fight simultaneous wars spreads U.S. forces thin, recalling Mark Hertling’s warning: “If you forget logistics, you’re going to lose.” ([14:14])

“We are in multiple wars, and... the best condition we can get out of this particular conflict is a draw.” — Lt. Gen. Hertling ([15:42])

• U.S. Public Anger: Economic fallout is widespread. Inflation rises past 4%, gas and diesel prices are at record levels, and new surcharges (e.g., USPS 8% package fee) are hitting consumers ([01:07]), ([41:18]).

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5. Political & Public Opinion

• Trump Allies Frustrated: Even Republican lawmakers are worried, as briefings from the Pentagon lack clarity on strategy, casualties, or costs ([25:18]), ([28:57]).
• Conservative Media Dissent: Normally friendly commentators like Tim Dillon openly call the war a “geopolitical nightmare” and “strategic blunder,” saying U.S. global power is spinning out of control ([26:31]).

“This is not the way an empire projects power. This is how they fall.” — Tim Dillon via podcast ([26:50])

• Comparisons to FDR: Analysts contrast Trump’s approach unfavorably against FDR’s leadership, noting Trump has not articulated the “why” for war or united the country as costs mount ([27:53]–[28:59]).

• Losing the Base: Trump's approval drops to all-time lows, including a significant fall among Republicans ([27:19]).

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6. White House Dynamics & Decision-Making

• Polling Filter: Trump is insulated from dissent; he’s shown favorable polling from Republicans, not from independents or Democrats, where support is very low ([16:38]).
• Dueling Advice: Conflicting voices in Trump’s circle urge either escalation or a quick exit and declaration of victory.
• Unclear Strategy & Deadlines: The President’s shifting deadlines (e.g., pausing energy strikes until April 6) are seen as lack of genuine diplomacy, possibly forewarning a ground invasion ([18:19]), ([18:43]).

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7. Broader Societal Impact

• Economic and Small Business Fallout: Trade uncertainty, tariffs, and high shipping/fuel costs strain small businesses, accelerate closures, and deepen economic anxiety ([41:18]).
• Disillusionment & Democracy: Voters express regret, distrust, and a sense of being trapped between untenable choices, fueling cynicism about the political system ([34:43]).

“All the things that Trump ran on that I liked, he has done the opposite.” — Panelist, voter perspective ([35:18])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Military & Diplomacy

• Hertling on Limits of Military Power:
  “We can't kill our way out of this... There’s got to be different elements of national power—policies, politics, diplomatic.” ([15:05])

• Sherman on Iranian Nuclear Ambitions:
  “You cannot bomb away knowledge. They will still have control of the Strait of Hormuz... their stockpile of enriched uranium...” ([18:43])

• Hudson on Trade-offs:
  “There are real trade-offs when you end up using the huge amount of munitions that this war in Iran absolutely devours in a very short amount of time.” ([12:04])

Politics & Public Opinion

• Tim Dillon, Conservative Podcaster:
  “This is not the way an empire projects power. This is how they fall.” ([26:50])

• Alicia Menendez, on lack of rationale:
  “We were never given a reason why this war started.” ([31:48])

• David Gura on Economic Fallout:
  “Gas prices...are only going in one direction... There's a real difficulty in getting that oil out of the region to the world.” ([35:50])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment / Topic | |-------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 01:07 | Situation update: War status, economic consequences | | 03:54 | Hertling: Troop numbers and Iran’s defensive capabilities | | 05:29 | Critique of Trump’s lack of strategy | | 07:48 | Sherman on failed diplomacy and Iranian hardliners | | 09:48 | Discussion: Regime change advocates | | 11:07 | Impact on Ukraine: Weapons diversion | | 14:14 | Risks and logistics; “We can't kill our way out of this” | | 16:38 | Discussion about President’s internal polling | | 18:43 | Pause in strikes: What it signals | | 21:03 | Nuclear proliferation risks | | 25:18 | Congressional frustration: lack of strategy, high costs | | 26:31 | Conservative media: “Strategic blunder” | | 27:19 | Trump’s sagging approval ratings | | 28:46–30:00 | FDR comparison; lack of justification for the war | | 31:48 | Congressional briefings and lack of transparency | | 34:43 | Disillusionment among Trump voters | | 41:18 | Diesel price shock and business impacts |

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Panel Dynamics and Tone

• Largely serious with moments of disbelief and exasperation, especially when discussing the administration’s lack of clarity and the real hardships encountered by Americans.
• Direct, analytical, and occasionally personal (voter regrets, historical comparisons).
• Panelists stress urgency, institutional failure, and the growing disconnect between policymakers and public needs.

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Conclusion

Key Takeaway: The episode paints a stark picture of a war with Iran that is sapping U.S. resources, producing few—if any—good outcomes, and creating cascading consequences both overseas and at home. Political, military, and diplomatic voices emphasize the administration’s lack of strategy, warn about the danger of escalation, highlight America’s strained global position, and document eroding support even among erstwhile Trump allies. The clearest consensus: the best achievable result may be an unsatisfying draw, not the decisive victory Trump envisioned, with costs mounting for both Americans and the world.

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Transcript

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Foreign.

[Alicia Menendez]

Hi everyone, it's four o' clock here in New York. I'm Alicia Menendez in for Nicole Wallace. Day 27 of the war with Iran, and here's where things stand. Rising fuel prices have forced the U.S. postal Service to impose an 8% surcharge on all of your packages and inflation is now expected to top 4%. That's according to one estimate. As for Donald Trump, he faces no good options to end the war he started and growing frustration among the American public over the economic pain his war is causing. Brand new reporting from the Wall Street Journal reveals that, quote, nearly one month into the war, the president has privately informed advisers he thinks the conflict is in its final stages, urging them to stick to the four to six week timeline he's outlined publicly at the White House today, Donald Trump denied the reporting and said he is, quote, the opposite of desperate. But it is becoming increasingly clear that he has few good options. The Iranian regime has rejected a US Peace proposal. There are no active negotiations between the United States and Iran at this moment. Two U.S. officials and two sources with knowledge tell Axios the Pentagon is plotting a, quote, final blow that would involve boots on the ground. Among the options Trump could choose from seizing Khark island, where most of Iran's oil is exported from capturing Iranian territory to allow for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz or blocking ships that are exporting Iran's oil. Many of these possibilities involve boots on the ground and Axios warns that, quote, many of the scenarios under discussion would risk prolonging and intensifying the fight rather than bringing it to a dramatic conclusion. And that is something Trump does not want to do. U.S. officials tell the Wall Street Journal that, quote, Trump is willing to order US Troops on Iranian soil but is reluctant to do so, in part because it could upend his goal of a speedier end to the conflict. He is concerned that the number of US Troops killed or injured in the operation could rise if the war continues. The president being confronted with his limited options for an off ramp, none leading to his original stated goal of regime change and his war of choice with Iran is where we begin today. Washington Post reporter John Hudson is here. He covers the State Department and national security. Also with U.S. lt. Gen. Mark Hertling. He served as the commanding general of the US army in Europe. And former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman is here. She led the US Negotiating team that reached an agreement on the Iran nuclear deal back in 2015. General Hartling, how sobering that reporting from Axios about the options that the Pentagon is laying before the president. Your take on the options that are being floated?

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

Yeah, it's troubling. Alicia, we've talked about this before, but we're talking about different courses of actions to bring a political solution to this. And you're not going to do that with troops on the ground. I don't think you've got various courses of actions. And one of the things we've discussed in the past is something called the troop to task ratio. You know, when there's all different kinds of potential task for a military organization to accomplish, they're spread very thin. We currently have two Marine expeditionary units and one airborne brigade with an airborne headquarters going in, flowing into the region. That's 10,000 forces. That seems like a lot. But when you're talking about the size of the country, of Iraq or, excuse me, of Iran, and the potential that they have to defend themselves with air defense equipment, drone strikes, strikes, explosively formed penetrators like they used in such great numbers in Iraq when I was there. They are not going to sit still and just wait for the US Forces to invade. They're going to defend their country because this is an existential threat for Iran. They know that there are dangers lurking and they're defending their sovereign territory. It doesn't matter what we think in terms of whether or not they have a bad regime or the ayatollah is a bad human being and they're oppressing their people. They still have a desire with the Revolutionary Guard Corps to defend what they see as sovereign territory.

[Alicia Menendez]

General Hertling, I'm reminded of what Trump's own former Defense Secretary, Jim Mattis said just this week about the way Trump is handling the war. Quote, target tree never makes up for a lack of strategy. And when I listen to this reporting, I'm hearing a lot of tactics. I am not, at least in my interpretation of what I am reading, seeing a strategy come together. So if each of these tactics is specifically aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz, then theoretically that then, assuming it were successful, allows ships carrying oil to get through. Then what? What happens then?

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

That's what we've been talking about, Alicia, since the very start of this war. If you don't have an end state, the means that you use the military to conduct along with the ways you're using them to conduct those means, it doesn't fit together. We're seeing battles, kinetic strikes, the potential use of military forces, whether it be a Marine unit or an army unit. But again, what are you trying to achieve now? It seems it's an economic purpose. Open the Straits of Hormuz, try and get the markets back. I'm not so sure that's the best way to use military forces. Unless you have a political end state, you're going to waste a lot of lives. And I think that that was apparent in your opening statement. And what you're going to see in terms of forces going into combat on the ground are going to face much more difficulties than you see when you have airplanes and Tomahawk missiles bombing from 30,000 or 10,000ft. It's just a different ballgame. You're seeing the force involve itself in human interactions on the ground, in tough terrain, in geography that is very different than anything we faced recently trying to establish a waterway to get ships out. If that's the purpose, if that is the political end state, you're going to need a whole lot more troops to conduct that task.

[Alicia Menendez]

So, Wendy, I want you to help me connect the dots between that military analysis and the diplomatic analysis. You have Axios reporting inside the administration, there are folks who think their show of force would increase their leverage against Iran. And when you are talking about diplomacy, do you buy that?

[Wendy Sherman]

Well, look, I think we always need a credible threat of force in any negotiation of this nature. However, as General Hertling knows, the Strait of Hormuz was open before the war. So the closure of the strait is a consequence of the war, not a cause of it. And indeed, the President and Steve Witkoff today talked about putting in front of Iran a 15 point plan which Iran says is impossible. And in fact, the gap is enormous. And Pakistan, the country that ostensibly has been trying to mediate, sending messages back and forth. Today it appears that the Pakistani embassy in Tehran and the Pakistani ambassador's residence got hit by a missile, whether it was ours or Israel's or something else. But nonetheless, there are unintended consequences of this kind of war where, as the general has said, the tactics may be good, the battles may go well, our military is excellent, but there is no strategy. And indeed, all we have accomplished here, painfully, besides the death of Americans and the death of so many civilians in the region, including in Iran, is that we now have a more radical, as I call them, the hard hard liners, the irgc, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is now in charge. And because there have been two instances where we have been negotiating with Iran only to attack them, the Iranians are not going to be in a rush to believe that they can get a deal that meets their national interest just because we want it.

[Alicia Menendez]

Well, Wendy, in light of that analysis, you have the Journal reporting that some people close to Trump are urging him to go harder. Seeing regime change in Iran could be legacy defining. I mean, are they in la la land? Because I'm not understanding any of this to be bringing us closer to that goal.

[Wendy Sherman]

Well, there has been a segment of our population and our political class who have believed for a long time that the regime should be ended and we should do it by force. But that is going to take a lot of troops. That is going to take boots on the ground. I know that some are suggesting that the president say, here's our proposal. If the folks who are in charge don't agree, well, let's decapitate them and get to the next level until we find some folks who will agree. But all we have done as a result of these tactics is to increase the nationalization of it, the nationalism in Iran. This is a country with a great history of pride and resilience and resistance. And all we have done, I believe, is increase their resistance. They have asymmetric tactics they can use. As the general has mentioned, they are not going to give up easily. They are not going to capitulate just because we want them to. And as the general said, none of us likes this regime. All of us want the people of Iran to have freedom. And of course, none of us want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. That's something we've worked for for a long, long time. These tactics aren't getting us there.

[Alicia Menendez]

John, I'm so struck by the fact that we all, I think, understand what this means for the region, what it means for us here at home. You now have entering into that calculus this new reporting from the Washington Post about how the war is affecting the US position on Ukraine. Quote, the Pentagon is considering whether to divert weapons intended for Ukraine to the Middle east as the war in Iran depletes some of the US Military's most crit. The weapons that could be diverted away from Ukraine include air defense inceptor missiles ordered through a NATO program launched last year in which partner countries buy US Arms for Kyiv. So a few questions there, John. Fair to say that that is a sign that the military is strained. What does it mean for Ukraine if those munitions are rerouted? And what does it tell you about the priority of this administration if that is how they choose to use America's resources and America's might?

[John Hudson]

It's absolutely fair to say that there's strained resources right now. I mean, look, the United States is involved in a lot of conflicts around the world and there are real trade offs when you end up using the huge amount of munitions that this war in Iran absolutely devours in a very short amount of time. The first casualty, of course, could be the Ukrainians. This report, which was put forward by my colleague Noah Robertson and Alan Francis, it's very significant given the fact that one of the key munitions that they're considering moving to the Middle east is interceptors. These interceptors are life and death when it comes to a lot of Ukrainians. They're constantly trying to shoot Russian missiles out of the sky that are headed towards civilian areas. This is a massive trade off in the big picture. You have to look at how the United States is involved in so many conflicts around the world world right now. You've got Ukraine, you've got Iran, you have Venezuela where we just very recently removed Maduro. And then you have the Trump administration openly considering regime change in Cuba right now. These are things that potentially require vast amount of munitions and the cupboard is becoming increasingly bare when it comes to our ability to do that. And of course, I didn't even mention China right now, where munitions for a potential defense of Taiwan is something that military planners have been thinking about a lot lately. So there's real trade offs. And the idea that this conflict in Iran is something that the United States can do without any consequences is not true in any way.

[Alicia Menendez]

John Hertlett. General Hertling, I want you to pick up on everything that we just heard from John Hudson there. What it means for leaders of the military to go and to use John words, find the cupboard bare. But also talk about the fact that this war that Donald Trump chose to start with Iran is now acting as a gift to Russia.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

Yeah. First I'll just say that in terms of the. The sustainment of this fight, there's a critical element of strategy that says if you forget logistics, you're going to lose. We're forgetting logistics. We think we can cover all these different grounds. When I was a war planner on the Joint Staff a long, long time ago, when we invaded ir, there was a requirement by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs to determine where are we taking risk in other parts of the world? I'm not sure that kind of assessment has been done today because as John just said, we're spreading ourselves very thin. Very thin. And the other thing I'd say is, you know, we're taking the place of what Russia is doing inside of Ukraine. We're considering bombing different locations that are going to affect citizens and civilians in a country. We are. I mean, even the president is naming it, especially Special Military Operations. He's saying, it's not a war, it's a. It's a military operation. I got to tell you, let me be emphatic when I say this. We are in a war. We are in multiple wars, and we do have to consider the risk associated with other places that we're leaving uncovered. The last thing I'd say, Alicia, is I once heard a great mentor of mine told me when I was going into the surge In Iraq in 2007, he said, we can't kill our way out of this. That would be good advice for the president to understand that you can't kill your way out of this problem. There's got to be different elements of national power, applied policies, politics, diplomatic. And truthfully, in seeing what's been reported, the stance of both the United States and Iran in terms of the peace treaty that we're looking to sign or the cessation of hostilities, they seem as far apart as the Russian, Ukrainian cessation of activities. What they still have both see it very different ways. And truthfully, like I've said before, Alicia, I think the best condition we can get out of this particular conflict is a draw. There is no win win. There's no win lose. There's going to be a draw. And we have to work a whole lot more beyond just the military use of power.

[Alicia Menendez]

John, based on your reporting, are there intermediaries, are there advisors to the President that are making that argument to him that a draw is about the best they're gonna get here.

[John Hudson]

Absolutely. And the most prominent being conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, who made several visits to the White House ahead of this conflict. Unfortunately, as we've seen things play out, and unfortunately, in his case, the President has been very defensive when it comes to criticism, criticisms of the way that he's handling this, including from allies such as Carlson. One of the things that the critics of this conflict who are in the conservative foreign policy restraint community have bemoaned recently is that the polling that the President is seeing about this conflict, he's being shown the views of Republican voters who have largely supported this conflict and have a favorable view of it. President is not seeing as much polling from independents and from Democrats, Independents, of course, being key to his coalition. And this is where this conflict is very unpopular. And so many people in his corner who want to see this end are saying, claim the victory. Just recite the statistics about all of the military infrastructure that has been destroyed by the United States and pull out as soon as possible. But he's getting pushed in a separate direction from a lot of pro Israel and Israeli voices in his circle that have said, go harder, go deeper, continue to the very end. And that's where the central tension is. And you're seeing it play out in real time in that Cabinet meeting you mentioned, where the President is trying to deny that he is in the squeeze that we all really see that he's in.

[Alicia Menendez]

Well, Wendy, as we are on air, we are learning that the President has said he is pausing strikes on energy plants until Monday, April 6th. That is two weeks. What does that tell you about the conversations that they're having inside this administration? And what does it mean for the possibility, the likelihood of a diplomatic negotiation?

[Wendy Sherman]

Well, the President had originally said that Friday of this week was the deadline, his five days. He's now extended that to April 6th. I saw General Hertling, I saw Mark shake his head, because I think he feels, as I do, that that probably increases the likelihood of boots on the ground and an effort to somehow apply some kind of military leverage on this situation, that is not going to solve this problem. That is not even if you take Cark island, you need many more troops to hold it. Over time. If you try to open the Strait of Hormuz, I don't know how you do that without lots of death. And I don't know how you do that over a long period of time without many more troops and many more assets, as Mark pointed out. And so this announcement, which I wish was about diplomacy, that was taking hold and I hope I'm proved wrong and somehow there's some backroom diplomacy that would be fantastic. But I agree, any diplomacy, as John Hudson has said, the sides are very far apart. It will be a draw. In the end, the Trump administration will have to go back to the drawing board. Yes, we will have pushed back their missile program. We will have pushed back their navy. We will have made it a weaker regime in some ways, but a more hardline regime. But we will not have solved the existential problems because you cannot bomb away knowledge. They will still have control of the Strait of Hormuz. They will still have control of their stockpile of enriched uranium, even if it's buried underground. And they will still have their ability to move forward to build a nuclear weapon, which this more hardline regime will likely believe it's necessary to have a deterrent against further and future attacks. So makes me pretty darn nervous. I hope I'm wrong.

[Alicia Menendez]

General Hartling, I have to sneak in a break here, but I do want to ask you before we go, if you agree with that analysis, if the extension of the deadline says to you there's an increased likelihood of boots on the ground here.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

I'm not sure I do just yet, Alicia, but I would like to comment on what Wendy just said about the nuclear aspect of this. There are going to be other nation states, there already are are who are going to say to themselves in order not to be intimidated or blackmailed, they need nuclear weapons. So we're going to see not a non proliferation of nuclear weapons. We're going to have the potential of proliferation because of this kind of intimidation and the threats to other nations. I don't want to say that there is a greater potential for military actions, but extending it two weeks. First of all, the two week deadline that the president always throws out there to extend what he might do is something that we're all used to. But secondly, what we've all been saying is the amount of forces that are in the region right now just are not enough to do the kinds of things that the administration is considering. So it needs additional buildup. Two weeks isn't going to give you that. You're going to get some additional ground forces potentially there more brigades from the 82nd Airborne Division. But those kind of light forces, the muse from The Marines, the 82nd from the army, they are not going to be able to control, as Wendy, just the areas that we're talking about wanting to control to get the Straits of harm use opening. And there's going to be a lot of family members saying, what are my soldiers and Marines doing over there and why are they risking their lives to do it?

[Alicia Menendez]

They deserve to ask those questions. John Hudson, Mark Hartling, Ambassador Wendy Sherman, thank you all so much for being with us. When we come back, more and more Republicans are saying they aren't sure the US Is in Iran for the right reasons. How Trump's war strategy is now frustrating some of his allies on the Hill. Plus, Americans have felt the effects of this war every time they fill up at the pump. Now they're also going to be feeling the war's costs when they ship a package. And later in the show. Even while busy waging a war of choice in the Middle East, Trump has managed to keep up his campaign of political retribution here at home, bending the Department of Justice to try and prosecute a so called political enemy. Going to get to all of that and more when Deadline White House continues after this.

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[Alicia Menendez]

Whether or not Abraham Lincoln ever actually said the phrase so often attributed to him is the subject of some debate. But it's an effective phrase all the same, that you, quote, can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Just look around. The New York Times has extensive new reporting this afternoon that indicates Republicans in Congress, even the ones who've so far given the White House wide latitude on the issue, are growing more anxious about the Trump administration's handling of the war in Iran, specifically having to do with those two big question marks, ground troops and tax dollars, quote. Several GOP lawmakers emerged on Wednesday from classified briefings with Pentagon officials on Capitol Hill complaining that they had crucial details about the way forward. Meanwhile, as Americans looking to travel this spring season choose between hours long lines at the airport and sky high gas prices, the administration's general dysfunction is seeping into the discourse of formerly Trump friendly media spaces. Here is one such podcaster Tim Dillon. But this is a geopolitical nightmare now.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

It's an economic catastrophe and the people

[Alicia Menendez]

these like dumb, you know, you know,

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

maybe well meaning, maybe not.

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[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

as anything other than a strategic blunder

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[Alicia Menendez]

This is how they spin out, where

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

you have people without any justification running

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around talking about how well we're doing gaslighting the public. Our government's completely dysfunctional and everybody knows it. And most of the people know it.

[Alicia Menendez]

Most of the people know what he said. That lines up pretty well with the latest survey from Fox News. And it's a shock. Donald Trump's approval now sits at an all time low, at least for that poll, 41%. And what's more, 16% of Republicans now say that they disapprove. That's an all time high. Joining me at the table is Bloomberg News anchor and correspondent David Gura. Also with us, host of the Fast Politics podcast and a New York Times contributing opinion writer, Molly Jean Fast, Democratic strategist and political analyst Basil Smichel. Does this moment feel different to you?

[Basil Smichel]

It does. It does. Because there are so many things going on at the same time. And it appears that The President and this administration are out of their depth, I think. What are the. First of all, I'm stuck on the fact that he talked about empire. This is not what empires do, actually. In some ways this is exactly what empires. Right. What empires do is they go after anyone they think they can conquer, try to absorb those states, those people into their fold. People were talking about this with respect to Venezuela, he's been talking about Cuba. That changes the framework of what happens geopolitically in the Caribbean and now we're in Iran. But you get the sense that the administration does not know what they're doing and that there is no actual off ramp. And when you fold that into the fact that just living a normal life in this country is starting to become really expensive.

[Alicia Menendez]

Well, it's always been really expensive and now it is becoming more expensive.

[Basil Smichel]

More expensive, yes, I'll correct myself. More expensive. Including the now surcharge at the postal service. Right. So.

[Wendy Sherman]

So

[Basil Smichel]

there is sufficient anger. I do think that a lot of the. According to the polling, that a lot of his core constituents, he's starting to lose that because he is not fdr. And here's why I raised that comparison. Because the country prior to World War II, we were isolationist. And FDR, recognizing that eventually the United States would have to get involved, found a way to work with Congress and to bring the country with him in his thinking and moving the economy and the sort of national spirit to get to a place where we could say as a country, this is important for us. Donald Trump doesn't have that bone in his body and he's starting from a much lower point in terms of approval rating so that he is incapable of getting the country to a place where we'll say this was the right thing to do. Cuz he hasn't sold us on the why, why this is important. What does it do to the country to benefit its voters? And so I can absolutely. This was all predictable, I guess, is the point.

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[Alicia Menendez]

As a nerd raising future nerds, I was recently took them to Hyde park to learn about fdr and I said to one of the people who worked there, what's your favorite exhibit? And they said, go around the corner. It's a list of everything they did during FDR's first year in office. And part of it is that in addition to that role on the global stage, there were so many things they were delivering demand domestically here at home that made people feel like their lives were going to be more livable and that the American dream, whatever that meant at the time was more within reach. Neither of those things are happening right now. You don't have a Congress led by Republicans that is delivering on those domestic agenda questions. And instead what you have is these entanglements which the president campaigned on, never getting involved in being front and center. And lawmakers are starting to get frustrated. I thought this was reporting. This reporting was interesting. From the New York Times. In classified briefings for lawmakers in both chambers on Wednesday, Pentagon officials declined to outline when or how U.S. ground forces might be used in Iran, according to two people familiar with the sessions who spoke about them on the condition of anonymity during the closed door session with senators. According to another person familiar with it who requested anonymity to describe it in general terms. The Republican senators, Mitch McConnell, Jerry Moran and Lisa Murkowski, complained about how limited the information was, including requests for details on the cost of the military campaign. Even if they won't say it in public, the fact that privately they are deeply frustrated about the lack of transparency from this administration, an administration that claims to be the most transparent administration in history, means that they understand the human cost of this, the cost that people are paying at the pump, but also just the absolute political catastrophe that this is likely to be for them.

[Molly Jean Fast]

Yeah, no, I think that's right. And look, we have a, I think it's really important to realize, like, we were never given a reason why this war started. Right.

[David Gura]

Like a lot of reasons.

[Molly Jean Fast]

Well, but not, but the White House never. Right. There's, we've heard Marco Rubio, Israel, we've heard, you know, Saudi Arabia. I mean, there are certainly a lot of theories, but the White House has been unable to articulate why they did this. And so they are unable to articulate what winning would look like because you don't understand why it started. And so this ends up already. And remember, this is Donald Trump who has run on two, basically two things making things cheaper, which this does not do because of the Straits of Hormuz and the oil and gas crisis now. And the numbers, I mean that I see pictures of gas station numbers and I'm like, whoa. And that. And on ending wars, right. No more foreign wars. That was his thing. And so, and he's just had a plethora of foreign wars and he almost postures like he's looking for more, like the whole Greenland thing. So I do think that this is just very hard now. You have to sell. I got elected on two things and have been doing absolutely the opposite for the last two years in the midterms And I think, you know, part of it is they're scared to go against Trump. But more and more, what you're seeing is these politicians making the calculation that as scary as it is to go against Trump, they are going to have to try to get reelected.

[Alicia Menendez]

They're gonna take that albatross right around their neck into the midterms. All right, the panel is sticking with me. I'm gonna get David to weigh in on the other side. We need to sneak in a quick break. We're gonna be right back.

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[Alicia Menendez]

Why have we asked our contractor we found on Angie.com to be our kid's legal guardian? Because he took such good care when redoing our basement that we knew we could trust him to care for our kids.

[Basil Smichel]

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[David Gura]

because I voted for Trump last time,

[Alicia Menendez]

I'm deeply disappointed in his administration. Correct. So it.

[John Hudson]

And it just feels like, what's that?

[Alicia Menendez]

Sorry.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

Sorry.

[John Hudson]

But it's just like, I. I just

[Alicia Menendez]

feel like there's nobody to vote for ever.

[David Gura]

And it's not like I would go

[Alicia Menendez]

back and change it because I don't, like, I don't think it even matters.

[David Gura]

Yeah, that's why.

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

Like, I don't. I don't like what Trump is doing right now.

[John Hudson]

But you can't say that, because then,

[David Gura]

like, they're like, see?

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

Told you.

[David Gura]

It's like, well, I find your alternative unfathomable.

[John Hudson]

So.

[Alicia Menendez]

And the other thing. I feel like all the things that Trump ran on that I liked, he has done the opposite.

[John Hudson]

It's done like the exact opposite.

[Basil Smichel]

I'm like, I didn't.

[David Gura]

I voted for you, but not for this.

[John Hudson]

And so it's just like you can't trust anyone.

[Alicia Menendez]

Wow. I could write a dissertation on that exchange. David Gura, Molly Jean Fass and Basil Smichler back with us. All right, so you know the podcast world that has generally been sympathetic to Trump, I mean, this seems actually like a pretty honest articulation of the moment we find ourselves in.

[David Gura]

Yeah, I think so. You have a president who's really fixated on this response mechanism of the stock market and the oil market. I think that's giving him some solace on some days and certainly worrying him on others. I think the more interesting metric is gas prices, which are only going in one direction. And so I venture to guess those podcasters, like the rest of us, are seeing that upward trajectory in those and really feeling quite bad about the way things are headed. I talked to Admiral James Tavris today, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, and he said there are two clocks right now. There's the clock that's ticking in Washington having to do with, yes, oil prices and the fact the midterms are approaching. And then there's the clock in the Middle east where things are wildly out of control. The war is widening, happening, and there's a real difficulty in getting that oil out of the region to the world. And so, yes, the midterms are close. What's closer is a circumstance in which there really is going to be a drought of oil in a lot of places, and it's going to be a really compounding problem. If you talk about the way that senators respond to this, Todd Young, the Republican senator, was on Bloomberg today, and he couldn't say what these two Marine Expeditionary Units are going to do in the Middle east or what the 82nd Airborne is going to do. So there's a basic level of articulation of mission and strategy that clearly isn't coming across to lawmakers right now. And I think of something that we say about my son often. He's precise, but not accurate. And I think that that's kind of the tell when you listen to this administration. So the president just a few moments ago, tweeting out that he's going to pause the period of energy plant destruction 10 days until 8pm on April 6. There's a level of precision that doesn't last, doesn't stick, and continues to move. And I just see a lot of similarity there. They're between what I often see in my child and the president.

[Alicia Menendez]

Play that back for your kid. I'm so struck by something that was woven into that sound that we heard. One that the alternative was a non starter. But also, if part of what Donald Trump did to American democracy was to engage low propensity voters or folks who had sort of written off politics as not being for them, it is not that the positive outcome is that those folks choose to go back to not being involved. Right. Like I am alarmed by the fact that the answer is not a re engagement, a questioning of why this vote choice was not necessarily for them the right vote choice and a real interest in alternatives, but rather a dismissal of the system altogether. I mean, in addition to all of the active steps they're taking to undermine democracy, whether it's the SAVE act or, or their redistricting effort to not have delivered and to basically say we said we're gonna drain the swamp, instead we're filling it up. That's also bad for American democracy.

[Basil Smichel]

It is. And you know, it's interesting because what I took from that conversation, the gentleman said, I voted for him, but not this. And I just, I was thinking about my hip hop days. I was thinking about black sheep. You could get with this or you could get with that. And you know what? You vote for this, you would. We'll get that. And we said a lot about Donald Trump. What the administration promised, it was written in Project 2025, so it was all laid out. So why did people do it anyway? Because they thought that their adjacency would help them. They thought that being close to people in power, to even liken themselves to what they saw would actually be helpful to them. And yes, there's a certain education that needs to take place to say, well, well, elections matter. And this is why it matters. These are all the people the president appoints and most people are not gonna pay attention to that. However, it is important for as the person talked about alternatives, that if you are presenting alternative, if you are a Democrat right now, that you have to do something similar to what Donald Trump did, which was paint a world you want the voter to live in and attach emotion to it. Policies are important, but you also have to attach the emotion to the policy. And that's what Donald Trump did. He said, I'm gonna. You may not be a billionaire, but I'm gonn gonna make you feel like the billionaire in you is within your reach. I probably said it better than he did. But the billionaire in you is within your reach. And I'm not saying that Democrats need to promise that exactly, but they need to create the world that the next voter wants to live in. So that I think, in addition to. Let's just vote against everything that's happening right now. And just one thing very quickly, because I went up to. We went to Cornell. I went up to Cornell the other day, and I always take notice of what I see. It's a rural. They're largely rural communities that you pass between here and there. A lot of the businesses I saw six months ago, a year ago, are closed. And so when you think about the rising costs, the surcharge with the postal service, all of these small businesses are going away. So when people say, well, we didn't vote, the alternative was just as bad. No, it was not. It never was. And we need to get over this hump of, you know, I want my perfect choice as opposed. I want to just live a better life and vote for the person that's actually creating that world. As I said, that seems that's better for you.

[David Gura]

Let me pull a strand of that.

[Alicia Menendez]

Can you wait till after a commercial break to pull the strand? Because I'm already in trouble. All right, everybody staying. We're gonna be right back. Stay with us. We are back with David Gurl, Molly Jean Fast, and Basilisk Michael. All right, so a gallon of Diesel has reached $5.38 a gallon. That's up 51% from this time last year. You've got the post office saying they're going to implement an 8% surcharge. How does that affect not just individuals, but businesses that were already reeling from this president's tariffs?

[David Gura]

Such a good point. That was the thread I was going to pull, which is you've had businesses kind of wondering how all of these trade policies are going to affect them. Some have closed already. They've had to navigate all of this. They kind of felt like they might be on the other side of this, that things had calmed down when it comes to trade policy a little bit. We've seen more deals negotiated, the Europeans voting to advance one this week. And now they face this just another layer of uncertainty. And I think it's going to be a huge problem. And you've brought up the surcharge on usps. You as well. There are all these second and third order effects. So, yes, it is a huge pain and a difficulty for gas and diesel to be as expensive as they are, but that plays its way through. The economy very quickly, becomes More expensive to ship things around the country to make products. All of this stuff is going to percolate and cause a more acute effect on people in this country and around the world as all of this progresses. And that is very much what's animating, I think, the anxiety within, in the White House. How do you contain this? And yet they have been unable to do it. And we've seen so many ideas floated by the Treasury Department and the White House. If that's reinsurance, if it's escorts through the Strait of Hormuz. There was this gift that the President talked about, which evidently was not a wooden horse, but was talking about empire, but was the allowance of some ships through that channel. None of this has made a real notional difference. Yes, the price continues to vacillate, but it's 40% higher than it was at the start of this conflict. And so it lays out in very stark terms, I think, for everyone. One, when they fill up their cars with gas, just how radically the world has changed since the President gave the State of the Union and was trumpeting the fact that gas prices were as low as they were.

[Alicia Menendez]

Right. Easy for presidents to bring gas prices up. Really, really hard for them to bring them down. Meanwhile, CPAC's going on without the President.

[David Gura]

Yes, without Molly.

[Molly Jean Fast]

We were just talking about this because I started. I used to go to CPAC and write about it. And what I found very interesting was you would see them workshop certain culture war issues, like hamburgers. There was one year they were talking about the Green New Deal and that AOC wants to take away your hamburgers. And I remember sitting there thinking, well, that is an insane thing to say. And then you just heard it again and again and again in a lot of Trump's speeches. So you do get to see some of the culture war ideas that they are going to try and workshop. And that's interesting.

[Alicia Menendez]

I think it's interesting. I also think it's interesting vis a vis the way in which the infrastructure on the right has changed so much in recent years and who has power and who is seen as being an arbiter of ideas and who has the President's ear has shifted so radically shifted

[Basil Smichel]

on the left, too, quite frankly. And I think that one of the things I was talking to a friend of mine about earlier is I'm seeing in my algorithms a lot more explainers. And that's actually quite, quite interesting and valuable because if, and this goes back to the podcast folks earlier,

[Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling]

you want

[Basil Smichel]

to know what's happening and how you're being how your vote and your sort of understanding of the world is being undermined, especially when it comes to who's getting rich off of everything that's happening right now. And that to be honest, even if you're on the right and you are concerned about what's happening, the decisions that the president's made, by the way, you're not that far off from the things that AOC and Bernie Sanders were saying. Right. Because they were making the point and have been for a long time, that the system is rigged against you.

[Molly Jean Fast]

And the mayor does a great job at that.

[Basil Smichel]

Yes, he does.

[Alicia Menendez]

I don't know why you hate hamburgers. All right, David Gurham, Holly Jean Fass, Basil Smichel, thank you all so much for spending some time with us. A quick break for us. New reporting on just how far reaching the harassment of ICE agents got during the surge in Minneapolis this year. Stay with us. As Donald Trump ramps up the role of ice, deploying them to airports all across this country, Minnesota lawmakers are warning about the potential for abuse. The Minnesota Star Tribune reporting that lawmakers are speaking out about being targeted and harassed by ICE agents during Operation Metro Surge. The Star Tribune writing this quote during a Senate hearing in February on a bill to require federal agents to unmask, State Senator Lindsay Port said agents had followed her parked outside her home. One lawmaker told colleagues that federal agents hurled misogynistic epithets at her even after she informed them she was an elected official. Another legislator said an agent with whom she had never interacted greeted her by first name, while another said agents walked around her home taking photos. The Department of Homeland Security did not respond to the Star Tribune's request for comment. We are going to stay on that story after a break. Trump escalating the rhetoric and the threats against judges trying to uphold the rule of law. We're going to look at what is being done about it when Deadline White House continues after this

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