
Voters are heading to the polls in five states for primaries today.
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Tim Miller
I mean, these are historically bad, but it's not just that they're bad, it's that the administration is showing no signs of trying to improve them.
Nicole
To me, it does not appear that
Tim Miller
there is a bottom Trump is heading
Rob Lowe
towards an electoral black hole.
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Clearly he sees these dismal numbers. He knows they exist, even if he's not wanting to believe them.
Nicole
It's life over on Earth 2, where the polls aren't what all the polls are Hi again Everybody. It's now 5 o' clock in New York. With that backdrop, the horrendously and historically low approval numbers for Donald J. Trump. Voters are heading to the polls today in five states for their primaries, Kansas, Missouri, Virginia, Washington and the all important swing state of Michigan, making decisions that will have massive implications for the direction of the country and how the second half of Donald Trump's term as president will go. Over the past week, Trump has seen poll numbers lower than he's ever seen before. 34% approval on the newest CNN poll, 33% of Americans approve of him, according to the Associated press. And just 32% of Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. In the latest Quinnipiac survey, the New York Times puts these numbers in historical perspective, writing this quote, the latest surveys indicate that Trump is now all but the most unpopular second term president at this stage of their tenure. In the history of polling going Back to the 1940s, the only exception is not one that would give Trump much solace. Richard Nixon had even less public support at this stage in his second term. But at that point, he was days away from resigning over the Watergate scandal. But just under three months to go before November's midterms and Trump's polling deep underwater, it could and should spell disaster for Republicans. As the Times points out, quote, the worry for Republicans is not just that voters disapprove of Donald Trump's handling of the presidency, but that they strongly disapprove, suggesting that they would be more motivated than Trump loyalists to show up this fall. And there's another notable marker. According to the latest findings from Reuters Ipsos, Americans pick Democrats over Republicans as better stewards of the economy. For the first time in nearly a decade, the economy, the single issue Donald Trump won the 2024 election by campaigning on, is now viewed by the American people as something that would be better handled if Democrats were in charge. That's where we begin the hour. Some of our favorite experts and friends. Political analyst, host of the Bulwark podcast, Tim Mil makes his triumphant return from vacation. We missed you. Jim Palmeri is also back with us. We're so happy to see you. She's the host of Crooked Media's Long Play podcast. She was a White House communications director under President Obama. So nice to see both of you. So, Tim, while you were gone, Donald Trump actually got more, a little bit crazier and a lot more unpopular. Your thoughts about where he stands in the polls?
Tim Miller
I don't know if he could have gotten any crazier, Nicole, but he could have done additional crazy things. Yeah, so we'll quibble. I just want to say I'm happy to see Jen Palmieri, my former pal, on the circus and elsewhere. It's been a minute since I've seen her. Look, he is, he's not doing anything to make himself more popular. And this thing, sometimes, like, I feel like you analyze Trump and he gets analyzed separately from other politicians because he has broken a lot of, like, typical political, obviously, norms and traditions, and he's done things that nobody else could do and survived it. And so know, people, like, kind of grade him on this weird, like, separate curve, you know, where he has a press conference and they talk about it. And you know where if any other politician had that press conference, they would say, like, this person needs to resign soon or, like, this person is going to lose their mind. Like, Trump gets graded differently. But, like, one thing that is just the same is that if people don't feel like their needs are being met or like that their concerns are being addressed, then, of course, like, they're Gonna look for other options. And Donald Trump, like, say what you want about him in the first term and even in the campaigns, like, he was always crazy and sometimes he had to be, like, brought back by his advisors. But he always at least, like, pretended to care about people. Right. And, like, pretended to care about what the MAGA base wanted. And he was always somewhat in touch with the MAGA base because he's having these rallies and hearing their response. And he just has totally lost that between the war economy, prices, you know, we're putting gold everywhere in the capital now. Like, and he doesn't even seem to have. There's no message, there's no kind of idea for what he's going to do to address prices to end the war. And so I do think that's creating a big opportunity for Democrats, and I'm not that surprised that his numbers have slipped to where they are. Unfortunately. We're so polarized, they probably need to go even lower because of the. And we'll talk about this because of the kind of states Democrats need to win to win the Senate, some of the states Jen's covering on that podcast. But, you know, our Stacy won by so much. But, you know, I think that it's not looking good.
Nicole
Jen, your thoughts on just where he is right now. And frankly, the other side of this is just how long and how completely historic the political negligence has been. I mean, treating his voters as Tim knows this triggers me more than anything else, treating his voters like garbage, that they're so dumb they're to believe that the elections in 16 had integrity and Trump won. The elections in 24 had integrity and Trump won. But to deliver a primetime address and say the only elections that had no integrity were the ones I was in charge of in 2020. That's the state of his relationship with the very loyal MAGA voter.
Jen Palmieri
You know, there's something about this having gone on for, you know, when the, when his second term ends, it will have been 13 years that we will have been dealing with Donald Trump. Right.
Nicole
Because the year that he ran feels like 49.
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It.
Jen Palmieri
I know, but it's like, I think it matters that it's happened over that. Like, it's been very particularly corrosive because it's gone on for so long and he just seems exhausted by it all now. Right. I mean, he used to. He used to be able to act like he cared people. So many people supported him because they felt like he, even as wealthy as he was, he understood what their lives were like. He had the same kind of values. He was going to look out for them. And now he's actively telling people, I'm not. I think inflation is fine, everything's great. And he's just focused on what, you know, what arc he can build and the capital and the reflecting pool and more gold and the White House. And it just seems like all about legacy. And we're only. I mean, it's only. No, it's August. It is August, but it's only August of 2026. We have two plus more years to get through with this.
Nicole
Yeah, I mean, Tim, the numbers don't suggest that the next two plus years are going to be anything resembling, I want to say, a picnic, but Trump's never been to a picnic. Like a carriage ride for Donald Trump. In terms of who voters blame for the price at the pump, 72% blame Donald Trump some or a whole lot. I mean, that's basically everybody except, I don't know, the people in his own motorcade. There is no escaping his culpability in the affordability cris.
Tim Miller
No, that's nothing. He always used to be good at blaming other people, pointing the finger, not taking responsibility. But he got into this Iran war, which was stupid from the start, obviously stupid. It was a betrayal of his voters. That's obviously the reason why gas prices were up. And if you look at, like Covid, for example, he's able to blame a million people. You can blame the Chinese, you can blame Fauci, you can blame Democrat. Like, you know, people could say, well, who could have predicted this virus would come? Like, this was not that. It was not some exogenous event. Right. It was like he started this war after promising that he wouldn't and now you're paying more. So obviously people are going to blame him. And I think to the third, the people being beaten down in the 13 years that Jen was talking about, I was watching a clip of this podcast. This guy, Sean Ryan, he's a very popular military kind of bro podcast, and he seemed so beaten down. I've never seen a podcaster so beaten down. Like, he had gotten on board with Trump. He was excited about it. And the energy on this podcast, I think he's talking with Tucker. It was just like, I can't believe it. Like, who am I going to have to have to hope for anymore? Right? I do think a lot of his, even his excited supporters are now just like, how can I get excited about this anymore? It's hard for me to get up if you're being paid millions on FOX to do it. You can do it. But for a lot of other people, it's like, how can I get up? Just the energy in the morning to be like, I'm really excited about the triumphal arc. I'm really excited that we're fighting with Jeanine Pirro about the reflecting pool. Like, he's not giving them anything to be excited about.
Nicole
Well, the other thing, Jen, that's amazing to me is we've covered his time in politics as the most divisive time, right? Where I mean, I've started calling it Earth One and Earth Two, but, like, rent's going up over on Earth One, because the only people on Earth Two are. They're these micro, micro minorities. So 72% of all voters agree that Trump is to blame for gas prices going up. 80% of all voters believe that the current economy is either getting worse, are staying the same. So there's not a division in this country in terms of people feeling like absolute garbage about the economy and blaming Trump for it. That is actually an issue now in year 13, as you point out, that unites 70 to 80% of all Americans. That's extraordinary open, soft terrain for Democrats.
Jen Palmieri
I saw a story in the Clarion Ledger today in Mississippi that has Trump's approval rating has dropped to 46%, which I think is the lowest it's ever been in the state of Mississippi. And on the show that we're doing, we've been to, you know, it's focused on the south, right? So we've been to Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee. We're in South Carolina now. And the one thing. Well, first of all, in Tennessee, we passed a Trump superstore that has a monster going down, a business sign. I mean, like a three story going out of business sign. Everything must go. You can see that next week. You can see that footage next week. It does. It feels like. And what's good about it, I'm happy to tell both Nicole and Tim this is that because Trump is not ideological and so many of his supporters were not, you know, just your, your conventional conservative Republican people seem really open now to other alternatives, no matter what the party is. And they, and you just don't hear, you don't feel any energy about Trump. You don't see the MAGA hats, you don't see the MAGA signs, you don't see Trump signs. But I do find, you know, in Texas found a number of Republicans who are voting for both Talarico and in a hosa, and it's partly because they feel like they were lied to. On the Republican side over the last few years, and things that they were told to be scared of weren't true, or things that Trump said he was going to do he hasn't done. Or with immigration, he's done in a way that they find truly offensive. So it really does feel like things are loosening up. Not just, you know, not just Democrats being mobilized and energized, but people who supported Trump and other Republicans being open to other alternatives.
Nicole
I mean, Tim, this gets. At your point, I think about Sean Ryan. Like, polls don't ask the question, but we talked incessantly about the manosphere. Like, I wonder if it's time to start asking questions of people like Sean Ryan. Like, do you feel like less of a man because you fell for Trump's bullshit? I mean, he's played his voters for such fools. He is now, as you point out, literally tacking gold things to the office. And that is a day's work for him. And then in the middle of the night, he'll get up again and work for whatever five minutes it takes him to type out something insane on Truth Social and then charge firms for it to make money based on the policy announcements. The whole thing is a scam. The 80% of voters who think the economy is staying as bad as it is are getting worse. Include a whole lot of people that were f and duped into voting for him more than once.
Tim Miller
No doubt. And I don't know if anyone would admit that they feel like less of a man. Maybe some of the comedians would, but I do think that they don't. Like, they don't have the incentive, right? Like these, the new people in Trump's coalition, right? Like, forget the people who are kind of MAGA propagandists and that media like that, they're paid to just spin his BS and they'll keep doing it up until the last dog dies, right? Some of these other guys that came on board, they thought that they were coming on board for a project. They're mad about whatever. They're mad about the wars, they're mad about COVID they're mad about Woke, and they're like, okay, well, this guy says he's going to deal with all this stuff, and then not only does he not, but he kind of rubs it in their face. He covers up the Epstein files, he gets into a stupid Iran war, he enriches himself. And so I do think they don't feel like they have to carry his water anymore. And I do think that's a big change. My one caution to the kind of hopium on this is just they do still have Trump's corruption has done one good thing for him besides his family's intergenerational wealth is that he's been shaking down all these companies for money in exchange for tariff write offs or regulation rulings. And so their PACs have unimaginable amounts of money and Elon's putting unimaginable amounts of money again during the midterms. And so if you look at, you know, whatever Jen mentioned, Mississippi, a 46% approval in probably not Mississippi, but in a state like Iowa or Texas or whatever where the Democrats need to win the Senate seat, there's gonna be just wall to wall ads trying to vilify the Democrats. Cuz they can't say they can't make Trump look good. Right. But just try to at least vilify the Democrats enough to get people to go home to the Republican or to not flip, et cetera. And I do think that that is the big challenge ahead for Democrats is you counter that because that wave is coming and they're gonna have to go win in these places where Trump has won by 10, 11, 12 points.
Nicole
Jen, how do you counter that?
Jen Palmieri
Well, I think it does so people do feel, it does feel like in the states that we're going to, so states that are going to matter for 26, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina in particular, there is, Mississippi will be where we go next week. There is a, there's a, there's a theory on how Democrats could win that Senate seat. Scott column. And against Cindy Hudsmith. But like obviously very difficult. But what I, but you know, what does work and it takes, you know, I think Talarico. I went into Texas with a lot of skepticism. But people don't like I'm going to call, you know this, they don't like Ken Paxton there. You know, Republicans don't like Ken Paxton there. And I talked to these mothers, publican moms, Christian evangelicals who were like James Tallery, go pastor, he was a middle school teacher. I would be happy to have him as a neighbor. I don't want Ken Paxton anywhere near my family. Like the so the so you know, and I asked, I pushed on. I'm like what about Jimmy's six genders? And they call him low tail Rico and all of that. And they're like we're done with that. That's what we've been hearing for so many years and we're done with that. Like it's still hard. The quality of the candidate really matters. You got a really good candidate, John Ossoff. That man is very native to his state. He really gets it. You got a really good candidate in Roy Cooper in North Carolina. That man has held statewide office for 40 years. And then with Talarico, someone who really is resonating because he's a different kind of candidate. You got, I mean, what I have learned covering these states in the south, you got, you move with intention, you recruit good candidates. You don't ignore the state legislature where talent gets. Where, you know race, where gerrymandering gets decided and talent is grown. So part of this, this is why my show is called Long Play also because I love music, but it's called Long Play because you got to. There's like real investment that needs to happen in the South. But those are three races that seem plausible to me.
Nicole
On the Democratic side, Tim, I think we've both been on campaigns where we had more money and didn't prevail. And we've been on campaigns where we were. Where we were against the side. Yes. What is your sense of the role that money will play? Because I think that could be sort of a head fake. Right. And I think you look at other. I mean, this is a nationalized midterm election, no matter what anyone says. And it doesn't override the strengths or weaknesses of individual candidates. But it is more conducive, I guess, to a wave.
Tim Miller
Look, I don't think. Right. There is a kind of one size fits all answer to this question. I think that in this Michigan primary tonight, Haley Stevens had more money. And I think in a lot of ways that's going to end up having backfired on her because a lot of people are kind of unhappy with the special interest manipulation as they saw it of the race. We'll see. And I was on Jeb's campaign, we had more money that didn't go well. Like money doesn't save everything. And I think that in a couple of those states that Jen mentioned, particularly Georgia and North Carolina, I think Ossoff and Cooper are running such strong campaigns in swingy states and Trump's so unpopular that the money probably doesn't matter to me. I think the area to worry is for the Democrats to really take the Senate. They got to win Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, some combination of those four. And in those states, it's just going to be really incumbent on the candidates to distinguish themselves from whatever boogeyman brand the Republicans put out about them on tv. And Republicans have a lot of money to talk to Republican voters and say, hey, you might not be, might not be thrilled about how things are going, but this person is scary for whatever reason. And I think those are going to be the places where that money could matter and where it's just as Jen said, the Democrats have to run really strong campaigns. There's going to be a smaller margin for error.
Nicole
I think it's exciting that campaigns matter again, right? Like the things that we spent our lives and our careers doing, like campaigns and candidates are really going to matter. Jen, it's so nice to see you. We're so happy about your new show. Thank you for starting us off this hour. Tim stays for the whole hour. When we come back, what Michigan voters are saying and thinking as they head to the polls today amid Donald Trump's plunging poll numbers. Our own Jacob so Roth is with some voters in Detroit. He'll join our coverage next. And later, more highly disturbing, frankly tragic revelations in the case of Ohio Congressman Max Miller, accused by his ex wife of assault and abuse. How the latest developments are leading to growing calls for his resignation, but not among one group that is notable. Deadline White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.
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Nicole
we are just a few hours away from polls closing in a handful of states holding primary elections today. Our friend and colleague Jacob Sobroff is in one of those key states, Michigan, right now. I want to bring into our coverage senior national and political reporter Jacob Sobroff, who's on the ground in Detroit. Tim Miller is still here as well and may chime in. Consider yourself warned. Jacob Soboroff, what are you hearing from voters?
Jacob Soboroff
It's a very exciting day here, not just in Detroit, but in all of Michigan, obviously, Nicole, for the very consequential reason of, you know, this could ultimately decide the fate of the Senate of the United States. And people seem very aware of that here at Wayne County Community College District, the northwest campus in Detroit. It's the largest election jurisdiction, Detroit, in the state of Michigan. They have seen tens of thousands of people participate in the early voting process and expect tens of thousands more to participate now. And you can see, I just want to show you a little bit here. People are signing in at the polling location. I want to be very careful to respect everybody's privacy here because there is a lot of sensitivities around that. But you can see how many voting machines they have set up here. And the idea is there are multiple precincts inside this one particular jurisdiction, and there's 157 different locations just like this all throughout Detroit. And why don't we take a walk outside and we'll talk a little bit more about all this. Hi, how are you? I promised them, Nicole, that I wouldn't bother anybody. But this location is a place where many people, this place rose out of the civil unrest in the 60s, and this is a community college where so many people from Detroit come and it's become a hub for voting because, because they say it's a large foot traffic area. Absentee ballots are really part of the system here in Detroit, which is why you might not see lines like we've seen elsewhere, even though there has been, I think, what can be described as outsized enthusiasm. And we're going to get into all of that, actually, in the next hour because I'll be anchoring a special hour here from outside at Wayne County Community College as people are lining up before polls close at 8. I can show you the set that's over there. But I also want to introduce you to some of the folks that I met over here. These people are here and they are electioneering. It's not just Al Said and Stevens. There are local races that are happening all throughout Detroit and all throughout Michigan. Let me just say hi real quick. I was talking to you earlier, and you're out here campaigning for someone who's running for Congress.
Jen Palmieri
Yes, sir.
Jacob Soboroff
How does it feel? You've been out in the parking lot. There's a lot of cars here. This is a summer at a community college. Not typically a busy time.
Mack Willis
Exactly. What's the.
Jacob Soboroff
What's the mood?
Tim Miller
What's the vibe?
Jacob Soboroff
What's your name, first of all?
Mack Willis
Well, my name is Mack Willis, and it's a pleasure meeting you, Jake.
Jacob Soboroff
It's so nice to meet you.
Mack Willis
And I'm here representing Byron Nolan, running for the 12th congressional district. Spot. And the turnout has been beautiful. They say over 70% has been absentee voters.
Jacob Soboroff
Yeah, a lot of absentee voters.
Mack Willis
Yeah.
Jacob Soboroff
So people are still showing up today, it seems like. Look at these cars over here, Nicole. These people are all actually coming. And you correct me if I'm wrong, but they're coming to do voting, curbside voting. They can vote in the car.
Mack Willis
Right. That's a fact. A lot of people, especially our elders, love the curbside voting. So the aspect of the curbside voting has really been helping the momentum and how this has been moving. So if you notice, there's no long lines.
Jacob Soboroff
Yeah, that's the thing. And I would say to Nicole, oftentimes we see long lines as a sign of enthusiasm. Long lines here, the absence of them doesn't mean people aren't excited. It means that the system's working properly. It's so nice to meet you. I'll talk to you more throughout the night. It's good to see you. Let's go see the curbside voting real quick on the call. You guys doing okay? It's hot here. You're right in the sun. You feeling okay? Yeah. Drink that water. What's your name?
Jen Palmieri
My name is Christian Harlan.
Jacob Soboroff
Did you vote today?
Mack Willis
No.
Jacob Soboroff
Are you old enough to vote?
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No.
Jacob Soboroff
But you're out here participating nevertheless? Yes. Okay, good. See, we got a future voter right here. And, Nicole, I don't want to stick the camera inside the car because they're voting. It's like the same thing as a polling place, but they're here for the curb. You guys here for the curbside boat? How's everybody feeling? Anybody want to be on tv? Not right now. They said not right now. But, Nicole, you can see there's action if it's not what it normally looks like. It's action, nevertheless, and the machinery of democracy is working. One thing I do want to say is people are looking out very closely here for those Department of Justice poll watchers, monitors that the president has sent out. Obviously, he was very bitter about the election results here in the 2020 election, threw around a lot of accusations. I've talked to the clerk here, who's the election official that oversees this election jurisdiction. And there have been reports of those poll watchers showing up at five different polling locations in Detroit, showing up both in the east and the west part of the city. And we're going to keep a close eye on that as well.
Nicole
Jacob, let me, let me, let me first thank you for the tour de force. That is your Election Day live shot. It's like one of my favorite things. I live for it. And I can't wait to run upstairs and watch your special at 6 and be on with you all night. Let me ask you this. In the voters that you've talked to or the election workers you've talked to that haven't necessarily wanted to be on camera, is the contest and the machinery of today's election top of mind, or is it competing with what you just pointed out, that Donald Trump's doj, led by someone who very publicly embraces his role as Donald Trump's personal attorney, has announced that they will send, at Trump's direction, poll workers to Michigan and to Democratic leaning counties in particular.
Jacob Soboroff
I think it's unavoidable here. And so later tonight, you know, I'll be here all throughout the 6 o' clock hour. We're going to do this special at the top of the 8 o' clock hour. I'll be here during every hour, but at the top of the eight with Rachel, when the polls close, at least in this part of Michigan, because in the Upper Peninsula, they close. And I were going to watch the situation, but then we'll go over to the election headquarters, one of the places where they count the votes here. So many absentee votes will be counted tonight and the clerk will be there and we will try to get an update on that to see what exactly these election observers are doing. They had said something to the effect of when I spoke to them earlier today. We're monitoring the readiness of poll workers. Well, I can give you Rodney's name, who I met inside, who's running this location. Things are going smoothly here as far as I can see. And if they're looking for the readiness, take it from me, who sees people all across the country trying to facilitate the vote for so many people, they feel ready here. They look ready here. And this is operating, as far as I can tell, very smoothly when it comes to actually the substance of the contest itself. What's so interesting to me, and I spent a lot of time at Eastern Market in downtown Detroit today because they have a big public market. I was filming for my show some of the stuff that we're going to show this weekend. People are excited about this race, yes, because of the potential for change in El Sayed vs Stevens, but also because they want to support whatever Democrat emerges against Mike Rogers, who is running unopposed in this race, because they see this as a referendum against Donald Trump. It is a pivotal moment for Democrats, but come November, Democrats today to pick their candidate, but it will be a pivotal moment people here feel for American democracy as a whole nationwide ticket.
Nicole
Thank you so much, Tim. Let me come back to you on this. Michigan has been the target of countless, I mean, more lies about rigged elections and illegal ballots. And it started on election day in 2020. I remember Heidi Przbela was our journalist on the ground, I think, on Election Day when he started lying about things that were happening. And Marcolias made the point at the top of the last hour that he now actually has more election deniers in place in battleground states than he did even in 2020. What are your thoughts heading into tonight?
Tim Miller
Yeah, look, I think that because of everything that we were talking about in this first segment about how unpopular Donald Trump is, Michigan's going to be a tough challenge for a Republican candidate in this year. And it is a swing state. And Trump's approval rating is, what, down 15% plus from when it was, when he won it very narrowly in 2024. But it's still, you know, a competitive state. You know, it's still somewhere where Democrats have gotten burned a couple of times recently, particularly 2016 and 2024. And so, you know, it's important that they have a nominee that people get behind. And it is a little bit concerning. Look at this Michigan Senate race. It feels like it's, it's, you know, some primaries are, you know, kind of friendly family feuds. And some primaries get really nasty. And this primary has gotten very nasty, nasty. And so I think it's, and it's a late primary. We're here in August. So I think the one thing that I would look to tonight is, is for whoever wins this primary, I suspect it'll be El said to, like, really work hard to win over the supporters of the other candidate. And you know, to demonstrate that they want to earn their support because, you know, you're get, you're gonna need the whole coalition and Democrat and like you said, Michigan is a state where it's critical that the Democrats are in power because we know this is going to be a place where there are going to be shenanigans in 2028.
Nicole
Exactly. Thank you so much for making those points. I need you to stick around, Tim. I think I said this at the beginning so that if you thought you were going to get off, you were stuck on live tv. You stick around. I want to invite all of our viewers and everyone watching now to come for Jacob Sobroff to stay for Rachel Maddow and the rest of the our primetime team of brilliant colleagues for the full coverage of tonight's primaries. It starts at 8pm Eastern. When we come back, horrific and tragic new allegations against Ohio Republican Congressman Max Miller. Calls are starting to grow for him to resign, but there's an eerie silence from one significant group of people, his fellow House Republicans. That's our next story. Don't go anywhere.
Rob Lowe
Hey, everybody, it's Rob Lowe here. If you haven't heard, I have a podcast that's called Literally with Rob Lowe. And basically it's conversations I've had that really make you feel like you're pulling up a chair at an intimate dinner between myself and people that I admire, like Aaron Sorkin or Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, Chris Pratt, Michael J.
Jacob Soboroff
Fox.
Rob Lowe
There are new episodes out every Thursday, so subscribe, please and listen wherever you get your podcasts.
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Nicole
there are growing calls for Republican Congressman Max Miller to resign amid allegations that he abused his ex wife and 2 year old daughter. Axios is reporting that Donald Trump spoke with Max Miller, informed him that, quote, things aren't looking good, and then repeatedly said his reelection would be tough. That is according to three sources. Miller has denied all allegations of abuse and has sued his ex wife Emily Moreno for defamation. And in an interview this hour, Jake Tapper on cnn, he vowed to stay in the race. Before we go any further, we should tell you that some Senate Republicans, including his former father in law, the father of his ex wife, Senator Bernie Moreno, have called on Miller to resign. Today the bipartisan House Ethics Committee announced it is investigating the allegations against Miller. However, among Miller's Republican colleagues in the House, there is an inexplicable and deafening silence at this hour. 0 as in no house Republicans have publicly called on a man who is accused of abusing his ex wife and 2 year old to resign from the body. That includes 31 Republican women who serve in the caucus as well. In the last few hours we learned that Max Miller's attorney admitted to inadvertently releasing private and personal documents which included the name of Miller's 2 year old daughter and a photo of her without a top. From the letter sent by Emily Moreno's attorney, quote, yesterday you enabled your client, Congressman Max Miller to share and disseminate to the public an electronic Dropbox folder of materials. This was in conjunction with a video rant about our client Emily Moreno that Miller posted on X. The first time Miller shared the photo, it contained private images of Miller and Ms. Moreno's daughter and left her name unredacted. At least one of those images could be considered child sexual abuse material because the daughter's genitals appear to be visible. The post with the link to the folder published under your name garnered over 204,000 views from the time it was posted until this afternoon. A lawyer for Miller took responsibility for the photo being released and called it, quote, completely unintentional and a mistake, but disputed that characterization of the photo, telling Politico this, quote, there were no images of genitals and that quote, a two year old girl had her shirt off, end quote. Max Miller's lawyer apologized to Miller, Moreno and their families, but accused Ms. Moreno, the alleged victim of Miller's physical abuse, of causing, quote, a media spectacle regarding this unfortunate mistake as a means to try to gain leverage in court and distract from underlying evidence that exonerates Miller from the false allegation he's accused of. I want to bring in New York Times congressional correspondent Annie Carney who's been covering this. Tim is still with us. Annie, I want to show you what Max Miller's ex wife's father, who was a senator, Senator Moreno said about the photos that were released.
Senator Bernie Moreno
But on Sunday when he went out and did what he did, including releasing photos of my granddaughter completely naked, that now you have hundreds of thousands of psychotic human beings that have that and to say oops is grotesque. My personal opinion is that this is a felony and that every single human being that touched that photo and transmitted it electronically should go to jail because it is illegal to do that.
Nicole
It's obviously a family at the center of this and a two year old child at the center of this. But those accusations come not just from a fellow Republican, but from a fellow Republican elected official in his state and his former father in law.
Annie Carney
Yeah, we've seen Bernie Moreno take a lot of flack last week as this story was gaining steam for being quiet, for not speaking out against Max Miller. I think it just struck a very human nerve with people that like you see your daughter and granddaughter being, alleging domestic violence and you know, you don't want to speak out against the guy. And then on Sunday he did for the first time with a really strong and unequivocal and emotional statement he put out on, on social media. And then today he spoke in the hallway at length talking about how devastating this has been personally for their family. And he's been clear that the reason he was silent was Emily Marino asked him to. She didn't want to inflame a situation where she still is to co parent with Max Miller. So I think that Bernie Marino's comments in the post have sort of. If people thought he was staying quiet because of politics, I think people are giving it a little grace at this point. I mean, this is obviously a grotesque family tragedy in addition to having extreme political ramifications. But at this point, I think Bernie Moreno is just at this point speaking openly as a dad stuck in the middle of this,
Nicole
afraid, as Bernie Moreno has said, of his daughter's life and his granddaughter's physical safety. He accuses Max Miller of sadistic conduct when it comes to his treatment of his two year old granddaughter and holding hostage a stuffed toy that this child who must be experiencing some degree of trauma from all this, needs to sleep. Let me play that sound
Senator Bernie Moreno
just this Sunday, I had to go. Imagine this. I had to go pick her up because I don't want my daughter interacting with this man. So I meet him at the Bay Village police station because that's the place that we have to go to meet, because I don't know what this guy's capable of.
Shannon Maldonado
Of.
Senator Bernie Moreno
She comes over, gets in our car, we drive away. And if anybody's a parent, she has a little blue bunny that she sleeps with. Max would not hand over the little blue bunny. Literally held it hostage for 48 hours. This girl is crying at night because she can't sleep without her little blue bunny. His answer is, I'm just not going to give it to you. So finally, yesterday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, yesterday, he lets the little blue bunny go. This is the level of total and complete depravity. Do I want all this in public? No. Do you have any idea that. What it's like to go through physical abuse and then mental abuse and then to relive it over and over and over again? That's what my daughter has tried to avoid. She hasn't made a single solitary public statement. Max feels like he needs to go on a publicity tour, which I just don't understand.
Nicole
Again, in an interview with Jake Tapper on cnn, Max Miller denied the story about the little blue bunny that was withheld from his daughter, according to Senator Moreno. Annie, your thoughts?
Annie Carney
I caught the beginning of that Jake Tapper interview right before I came on here. And. And he denied it. Not strongly. Kind of just like, no, that didn't happen. But he's denying everything. So he's denying. Over the years, there have been multiple women who've accused him of domestic abuse. He denies every single allegation that has been leveled against him. And now he's denying this. I mean, yeah, it's. We don't know. We weren't there, I guess just. It's a very specific story that Bernie Marino's sharing that detail that they have to trade custody at a police station is heartbreaking. And I don't. It just. It doesn't sound like a detail that a senator who wants this to just go away and whose daughter is scared that they'll further employ the situation would make up. But, yeah, I mean, we weren't there. Max Miller says that's not true, and they're in a family feud. So I think. We don't. We don't.
Brian Driscoll
I don't know.
Nicole
All right, no one's going anywhere. We have to sneak in a short break. We'll bring Tim in on the Other side. Back with Annie and Tim. Tim, this shouldn't be a political question, and I guess I'm old enough to remember when it wasn't. But right now, these are the Republicans who have called for Miller's resignation based on what is alleged and what is in the public record. Bernie Moreno, his ex father in law, Shelley Moore. Capito, Lisa Murkowski, Roger Marshall, Jim Justice, Rick Scott and Cynthia Loomis. Max Miller, for his part, says he's staying in and that Donald Trump is standing by him. Of course he is. Your thoughts on why not a single House Republican has come out and called for his resignation?
Tim Miller
Look, politics, they have a very small majority in the House and it's been made smaller by resignations by Marjorie Taylor Greene and others over the course of the last year and a half. So it's pure politics. It's inexcusable. I understand Senator Moreno in his case, going through a personal situation. Hard for me to judge what's happening behind the scenes. But Max Miller has other allegations. The former spokesperson for Donald Trump, Stephanie Grisham, alleged that he domestically abused her. So that seems like a pretty credible allegation to me, saying as she was a spokesperson for the Republican Party, that's not, not some left wing activist going after him, that you should discredit that. But, you know, so if you're a Republican and you're doing this on the merits and you're, and you don't believe that someone that is credibly accused by two women of domestic abuse should be in Congress, then, like, they probably should have been speaking out about Max Miller a long time ago. We've been covering Max Miller's allegations for a while at the Bulwark. So these guys don't care. They wanted to get on their high horse about Graham Platner. All these people, Reince Priebus, my former boss, Kevin McCarthy, Kellyanne Conway, were all just condescending going on FOX about how the Democrats are protecting this man. And, you know, plenty of potential criticism for Democrats about how they handled the Platner situation. But like, once the credible, the most credible allegation of physical abuse came out, everyone said that he should resign up to and including his closest political allies. And for Mike Johnson to be silent right now, there's no personal situation there. He's doing it simply to protect his House majority for what, for three months. And they're not even passing anything. So it's like political power for political power's sake, not even actually for any ideological ends or policy ends. So it's really shameful. We've seen it time and again. There are other Republicans in the House, I should mention, that have allegations. Corey Mills, Chuck Edwards, and you know, they're nowhere to be seen.
Nicole
Just a situation described as such a tinderbox by a Republican senator who happens to also be a father in law here. People should think long and hard about staying silent on this one. Annie Carney, you're reporting is invaluable. Thank you for joining us to talk about it. Tim Miller, thank you for joining us to the hour. One more break. We'll be right back. Apropos of our last conversation, integrity and honor from our public servants. Is equality not just fading from view in this new era of politics, but seemingly a trait being actively attacked and belittled by the Trump administration and their never ending quest for loyalty above all else. That's why my guest on this week's episode of the Best People gave me hope for the future. It's former FBI Acting Director Brian Driscoll. He's appearing on a podcast instead of leading the FBI though, and that's no good. Take a listen to what he told me about the vetting process he endured after Trump was elected.
Brian Driscoll
He reflected that he understood I couldn't tell him who I voted for. So he asked when I started supporting the president and didn't answer that question. And he's like, he seemed impatient and he said that, okay, I understand you can't talk about that. Just tell me if you voted for a Democrat in the last five elections. And then I concluded the conversation after that and hung up.
Nicole
Do you think that that is their litmus test for people that did get jobs?
Brian Driscoll
I don't know from experience if that is or was a litmus test to achieve leadership positions within the FBI from within the FBI. I really hope it's not. And if it is, I really hope that people understand that they cannot answer those questions. It's again, a violation of the Hatch act for some of those questions. It's completely inappropriate and unethical and illegal.
Nicole
It's a conversation you won't want to miss. Just scan the QR code on your screen to hear the rest of it or download it wherever you get your podcast, be sure to let me know what you think of this one on Instagram or bluesky. Thank you so much for letting us into your homes tonight. We, we are grateful.
Rob Lowe
Hey everybody, it's Rob Lowe here. If you haven't heard, I have a podcast that's called Literally with Rob Lowe. And basically it's Conversations I've had that really make you feel like you're pulling up a chair at an intimate dinner between myself and people that I admire, like Aaron Sorkin or Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, Chris Pratt, Michael J. Fox. There are new episodes out every Thursday, so subscribe, please, and listen wherever you get your podcasts.
Episode: “Just under three months to go before the midterms”
Date: August 5, 2026
This episode focuses on the political landscape in the United States just under three months before the 2026 midterm elections. Host Nicolle Wallace, with political analysts Tim Miller and Jen Palmieri, explores President Donald Trump’s historically low approval ratings, the political consequences for the Republican Party, the shifting attitudes among voters (including former Trump supporters), and critical Senate races. Reporting from Michigan’s primary elections and discussion of major news, such as the abuse allegations against Ohio Congressman Max Miller, round out a dense and urgent hour.
“Over the past week, Trump has seen poll numbers lower than he's ever seen before… Not just that voters disapprove of Donald Trump's handling of the presidency, but that they strongly disapprove, suggesting that they would be more motivated than Trump loyalists to show up this fall.”
“He’s not doing anything to make himself more popular... if people don't feel like their needs are being met... they're gonna look for other options.”
“He used to be able to act like he cared... and now he's actively telling people, I'm not [looking out for them].”
“He got into this Iran war, which was stupid from the start, obviously stupid. It was a betrayal of his voters... He started this war after promising that he wouldn’t, and now you’re paying more.”
“Because Trump is not ideological... so many of his supporters were not just your conventional conservative Republican. People seem really open now to other alternatives, no matter what the party is.”
“Some of these other guys that came on board… not only does he not [deliver], but he kind of rubs it in their face... I do think they don’t feel like they have to carry his water anymore.”
“There’s gonna be just wall to wall ads trying to vilify the Democrats... That is the big challenge ahead for Democrats.”
“You recruit good candidates... You don’t ignore the state legislature where talent gets grown. There’s like real investment that needs to happen in the South. But those are three races that seem plausible to me.”
“Oftentimes we see long lines as a sign of enthusiasm. Long lines here, the absence of them doesn’t mean people aren’t excited. It means that the system’s working properly.”
“Some primaries get really nasty... the one thing that I would look to tonight is, is for whoever wins this primary... to really work hard to win over the supporters of the other candidate.”
[32:59–44:09]
“She has a little blue bunny that she sleeps with. Max would not hand over the little blue bunny... This is the level of total and complete depravity.”
“If you’re a Republican… and you don’t believe that someone that is credibly accused by two women of domestic abuse should be in Congress, then… they probably should have been speaking out about Max Miller a long time ago... So these guys don’t care.”
[45:11–46:11]
“I really hope it’s not [a litmus test]. And if it is, I really hope that people understand that they cannot answer those questions... it’s completely inappropriate and unethical and illegal.”
| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | Trump’s historic low approval / Polling analysis | 01:25–04:07 | | Analysis on Trump’s strategy & base disaffection | 04:07–10:02 | | Voter malaise & the “manosphere” segment | 12:42–13:29 | | Dems’ opportunity, GOP’s money machine | 13:29–17:37 | | Investing in candidate quality (Palmieri) | 15:33–17:37 | | Michigan live report, voting process, election security | 21:58–27:06 | | Tim Miller on Michigan Democratic challenges | 29:17–30:38 | | Max Miller abuse scandal, GOP silence, family statements | 32:59–44:09 | | FBI litmus test interview segment | 45:11–46:11 |
This episode paints a vivid picture of a turning tide in American politics, where Trump’s waning popularity, policy failures—especially economically and in foreign affairs—alongside serious ethical questions within the GOP, create rare opportunities and urgent challenges for Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms. The importance of candidate quality and sustained grassroots effort stands out, while the segment on Michigan’s ground game and the Max Miller controversy reveal the practical implications of erosion in institutional norms on both democracy and basic public trust.