“Open cruelty”

Summary

Podcast Summary: Deadline: White House

Episode: “Open cruelty”
Date: October 13, 2025
Host: Nicolle Wallace (with Jacob Soboroff, Cornell Belcher, Tim Miller, Michael Crowley, Rick Stengel)

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Overview

This episode of Deadline: White House explores the escalating fallout, public response, and intra-MAGA backlash to Donald Trump’s mass deportation scheme during his second administration. Nicolle Wallace and her panel analyze seismic shifts within right-wing media, dissent from prominent Trump allies, the severe human and social consequences of ongoing deportation raids, and threats to democracy as local and state officials, and everyday Americans, confront what Wallace calls “open cruelty.” The latter part of the episode covers breaking news on the hostage release and peace agreement in Israel and Gaza.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Turning Point: MAGA Dissent Against Trump's Deportation Policy

(01:08–08:21)

• Nicolle Wallace opens with Trump’s mass deportation policy now drawing fire from unexpected quarters: prominent MAGA media and lawmakers.

  • "The sight and the sound and the smells of heavily armed federal agents sweeping up people with no criminal records... those sights and sounds are proving to be too much for arguably the most influential podcaster in the MAGA adjacent universe." (01:12)

• Joe Rogan’s Influence: Wallace highlights Joe Rogan’s recent public condemnation as a watershed moment, calling the raids “heartless”:

  • Quote: "The way it looks is horrific... Everybody who has a heart sees that and go, that can't be right." – Joe Rogan (02:12)
  • Rogan advocates a “pathway to citizenship” for those who’ve been here for decades, separating ‘criminals’ from the rest: “Find a way where you can do this thing that you want to do... but also have a heart.” (02:12)

• Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Shift: The conversation spotlights Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene’s strange new realism:

  • Quote: "We have to do something about labor and that needs to be a smarter plan than just rounding up every single person and deporting them just like that... I'm just living in reality from here on out." – Marjorie Taylor Greene (approx. 05:00)
  • Wallace notes that this marks “more than a shift in tone... it's a shift in her position.”

• Significance: This intra-party backlash is framed as a “Rogan standard” for MAGA: “It is now, quote, heartless, if you were for sending anyone back who's been in the country 20 years, anyone other than, quote, 'terrorists and people coming in with drugs.'” (04:00)

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2. Reality of Mass Deportations: Human and Community Impact

(08:21–15:23)

• On-the-Ground Reporting – Chicago as Microcosm:
  Jacob Soboroff details widespread, militarized raids in Chicago; most detainees lack criminal records.
  • "We saw over the course of just one day, multiple detentions happening of multiple people going about their quotidian activities... It is the rule." (08:21)
• Show of Force and Cruelty as Messaging:
  • "The show of force is the point. Adam Serwer said—the cruelty is the point. Letting people see this is the point. They want these images to be out." (11:15)
  • Just 1% of those arrested in Chicago had criminal records (per DHS-supplied data). The mass operations are portrayed as targeting ordinary people (10:24–11:52).
• Escalating Operations & Public Protest:
  • Trump’s DHS is doubling down, fueling fear and animosity. Soboroff: “They’re going to look to fill beds... $75 billion is intended to do. Create more detention space...” (12:26)
  • Street protests: Tens of thousands have mobilized (“massive protest of something like 7 to 10,000 people... up and down Michigan Avenue.” 12:52)
• Difference from Prior Administrations:
  • Obama’s record deportations are contrasted with Trump’s indiscriminate, high-visibility raids meant to “scare the holy hell out of people.” (13:32)
• Polling and Political Risk:
  • Deportations of long-resident, non-criminal immigrants have minuscule public support (~8%). Vast majority only support deporting “adjudicated violent criminals.” (14:44)
• Cornell Belcher on Racial and Political Dynamics:
  • "This is xenophobia. This is bigotry. This is replacement theory at work... what we've wanted for a long time is for Main Street, calling it what it is—Main Street white people to have skin in this game." (15:23)

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3. Political Fallout, Approval Metrics, and the 2026 Election

(16:44–19:02)

• Republican Base Shrinking, Persuadables Softening:

  • Trump maintains high Republican approval (86%), but the raw number is shrinking; independents' support is “cratered,” with Trump underwater over 30 points. (17:23–17:53)
  • The panel notes: If independents abandon Trump, this could reshape the outcome in upcoming elections.

• Tim Miller: Reality Breaking Through:

  • "What Trump is doing has to be bad enough that people's unreality is pierced... It sucks that we're here, that that has to be our situation." (18:33)
  • Miller highlights the importance of documenting abuses and publicizing stories of citizens—like veterans and security guards—targeted by raids to reach hearts and minds across the spectrum (19:02).

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4. Deportations Escalate to Threats Against Democracy

(23:25–32:18)

• State Leaders Push Back:

  • Governors Pritzker (IL), Newsom (CA), and Mayor Bass (LA) are vocally resisting, viewing federal actions as a usurpation of state/local authority and a democracy threat.
  • “It’s not just about the future of who gets to live in this country. It's whether or not we get to have a free country at all.” – Jacob Soboroff (24:40)

• Panel Anxiety: Will There Be a Free and Fair 2026 Election?

  • Discussion dwells on the use of military, the prospect of federal forces at polling places, and the constant “unbraiding” of anti-democratic tactics from voter suppression to mass deportations (25:03–26:56).
  • “I’m not kidding when I’m not sure there's going to be an election.” – Cornell Belcher (26:28)
  • Optimistic Rebuttal: Tim Miller argues that voter suppression efforts often backfire, increase activism and protests, and predicts blue-state governors will block intimidation locally (27:01).

• No Kings Movement:

  • The “No Kings” protest movement is invoked as the embodiment of core American principle—resistance to authoritarianism. Panel ridicules attempts to brand it “antifa” (28:23–30:06).

• Military and National Guard Discontent:

  • Soboroff notes “members of the National Guard that I've talked to are deeply uncomfortable about having to participate in a mission like this.” Raises further risk of loss of institutional support for the administration (30:06–31:23).

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5. Israel-Gaza Hostage Release and Peace Deal

(35:16–45:44)

• Human Impact:
  • Emotional scenes of the hostages returning home after over 700 days in captivity. Simultaneous release of Palestinian prisoners. Both sides experience grief and relief.
  • "It's impossible to watch those videos with a dry eye... for people seeing their loved ones, also very powerful." – Rick Stengel (39:32)
• Details and Fragility of Peace:
  • Michael Crowley and Rick Stengel caution that while celebrations are warranted, the hardest, most complicated questions—governance of Gaza, regional security, and disarmament—are unresolved.
  • “Every single tiny thing is worried about diplomats because they don't want to over promise and underdeliver. Trump has the exact opposite thing. Let's wildly overpromise and then force people to try to deliver.” – Rick Stengel (41:26)
• U.S. Troop Involvement & Ongoing Risk:
  • Deployment of American troops to Israeli bases introduces “another unknown” and carries dangerous historical echoes (42:39–44:27).
  • Gulf States and international actors face pressure to invest and stabilize, but face political and financial realities.
  • Call for all parties to display “work and discipline”—lest the cycle of violence resume.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Joe Rogan, on Trump’s raids:
  "Everybody who has a heart can't get along with that. No, everybody who has a heart sees that and go, that can't be right..." (02:12)

• Nicolle Wallace, on shifting standards:
  "The Rogan standard is that it is now, quote, heartless, if you were for sending anyone back who's been in the country 20 years..." (04:00)

• Jacob Soboroff, on the raids:
  "The show of force is the point... They want these images to be out. They're making their own videos." (11:15)

• Cornell Belcher, on shifting engagement:
  "What we've wanted for a long time is for Main Street...white people to have skin in this game, and perhaps now...they don't like it." (15:23)

• Tim Miller, on reality breaking through:
  "What Trump is doing has to be bad enough that people's unreality is pierced..." (18:33)

• Rick Stengel, on the Middle East peace:
  "There have been many new dawns. You know, there have been many ceasefires, but then we got what we got in Gaza." (45:44)

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Important Segment Timestamps

| Time | Segment | |----------|---------------------------------------------------| | 01:08 | Wallace's opening: MAGA influencers turn on Trump | | 02:12 | Joe Rogan’s condemnation of mass deportations | | 05:00 | Marjorie Taylor Greene's realism on labor, policy | | 08:21 | Soboroff’s on-the-ground report from Chicago | | 11:15 | “The cruelty is the point”—message of intimidation| | 12:52 | Civic resistance: mass protest in Chicago | | 13:32 | Distinction: Trump vs Obama-era deportations | | 15:23 | Belcher on race, politics, ‘replacement theory’ | | 17:23 | Trump’s support: GOP base vs. independents | | 18:33 | Miller: Dissent requires piercing tribal unreality| | 23:49 | State/local officials shift toward broader resistance| | 24:40 | Soboroff: Link between immigration and democracy | | 25:03 | Fear of 2026 election subverted by militarization | | 30:06 | National Guard disquiet and potential backlash | | 35:16 | Transition: Israel-Gaza hostage release coverage | | 37:16 | Crowley: Deal's fragility and unresolved questions| | 39:32 | Stengel: Emotion and enduring problems | | 42:39 | U.S. troops deployed, historical echoes | | 45:44 | Stengel: “many new dawns” and need for discipline |

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Tone and Takeaways

The episode is urgent, grave, and analytic, mixing on-the-ground reporting with frank political commentary. The hosts and guests express shock at the visibility and scale of the “open cruelty,” yet maintain optimism about democratic pushback, civic solidarity, and the enduring ability of truth and empathy to disrupt dehumanizing policy. The panel—citing new fractures in MAGA consensus—underscores the unpredictability and potential for rapid reversals in public and intra-party opinion when the ruling coalition’s actions become intolerable or hit too close to home.

The later coverage of the Middle East is sobering but cautiously hopeful, emphasizing both the breakthrough and the monumental challenges yet to be faced.

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Summary by Section:

• Trump’s mass deportation crisis is fracturing his coalition, with high-profile dissent from right-wing media and MAGA lawmakers like Greene and Rogan (01:08–05:45).
• On-the-ground reporting exposes the human/street-level cost: ordinary families targeted, military tactics used, and the cruelty made both visible and deliberate (08:21–13:32).
• Political analysis points to waning public support and potential existential risk to the Republican party, especially if independents’ rejection holds (15:23–18:33).
• Growing resistance is happening not only among activists, but among white middle America, state leaders, military members, and previously disengaged citizens—raising the stakes for the 2026 elections (23:25–32:18).
• Israel-Gaza segment juxtaposes elation of hostage release with clear-eyed warnings about unresolved risks, both for the region and U.S. involvement (35:16–45:44).

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Bottom Line:
The Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign has provoked open dissent within its core MAGA ranks and sparked broad-based civic resistance. As this backlash broadens—to media, lawmakers, governors, and even the military—the political and ethical reckoning over “open cruelty” intensifies, casting profound uncertainty over the near future of U.S. democracy and civil society.

Transcript

[Nicole Wallace]

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[MSNBC Promo/Announcer]

Deadline White House with Nicole Wallace, weekdays from 4 to 6pm Eastern on MSNBC.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Hi everyone. Welcome to Monday. It's 4 o' clock in New York. If Donald Trump's political power lies in being able to convince his supporters of anything and everything, then loud public dissent from inside his coalition from prominent MAGA influencers might be the thing that will melt his carefully crafted alternative fact based reality faster than the wicked witch in the wizard of Oz. And that is exactly what is starting to happen with his brutal and ugly and clunky and wildly unpopular mass deportation scheme. The sight and the sound and the smells of heavily armed federal agents sweeping up people with no criminal records, everyone from grandmas to kids with arrests everywhere from outside of schools to outside of bakeries, even to a Marine base. Those sights and sounds are proving to be too much for arguably the most influential podcaster in the MAGA adjacent universe. Here's Joe Rogan.

[Nicole Wallace]

The way it looks is horrific. It looks it when you're just arresting people in front of their kids and just normal regular people that have been here for 20 years. Everybody who has a heart can't get along with that. No, everybody who has a heart sees that and go, that can't be right. That can't be right. That can't be the only way to do this right. Because you have to think, look, yeah, we have to have a border. Yes, it should have been secure. Yes, they should make sure you know who everybody is before they get in. But when people been here for 20 years, like, come on, come on, that's crazy. Let's find a way. Been productive members of society for 20 years, no criminal record, they worked the entire time they paid taxes. Find them a pathway to citizenship. Find a way where you can do this thing that you want to do, which is keep terrorists and cartel members from getting across the border with drugs that kill 100,000 people a year. Okay. But also have a heart, because if you don't, you're not going to get anybody on your side. If you're doing this stuff publicly, throwing women to the ground, handcuffing people just for existing on the wrong side of the dirt.

[Jacob Soboroff]

Yeah.

[Nicole Wallace]

Not a criminal. Not. The only crime they ever committed was coming over here as a kid.

[Michael Crowley]

Yeah.

[Nicole Wallace]

They probably didn't even know what the was going on.

[Rick Stengel]

Yeah.

[Jacob Soboroff]

Yeah.

[Nicole Wallace]

You know, a lot of kids got snuck across when they were already born in Mexico and they've grown up their entire life in America. They can't even speak Spanish.

[Michael Crowley]

Yeah.

[Nicole Wallace]

And they could get sent back.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

I guess our only edit there is they have been sent back. They have been sent back already. Joe Rogan. But a new standard there emerging in American politics, and in one of the most influential media bubbles in American politics, the Rogan standard is that it is now, quote, heartless. If you were for sending anyone back who's been in the country 20 years, anyone other than, quote, terrorists and people coming in with drugs, have an effing heart. And if you do it anyway, you don't have one. But importantly, because he's said things before and we didn't leave with them, he's not alone. Disapproval and unease with Trump's mass deportation scheme extends to some of Trump's most die hard elected supporters as well. Never thought I'd say this, but here's Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene making a lot of sense on a podcast over the weekend. We have a labor force in America, across many industries that has been built on illegal labor. That's a fact that also cannot be ignored. And as a conservative and as a business owner in the construction industry and as a realist, I can say we have to do something about labor and that needs to be a smarter plan than just rounding up every single person and deporting them just like that. So. And I'm going to get pushback on that, but it's. I'm just living in reality from here on out. Plenty to not like about Marjorie Taylor Greene and Joe Rogan, but if we could have done this on our own, we wouldn't be here. So this shift in rhetoric and tone and these new standards being laid out there, Marjorie Taylor Greene saying it's not living in reality to carry out Trump's deportation policy is more than a shift in tone. It's a shift in her position, she owns a construction company. And she's giving voice to people inside Trump's coalition who have the same concerns. Back in May, when a college student who had been raised in her district was due to be deported to Mexico, she was more callous. She hadn't understood what Trump was actually going to do. And she said, quote, the law is the law, but this is her now, quote, I'm not ignoring facts anymore. So the reality of Trump's mass deportation campaign and how it is impacting every one of us, everyone is going to be touched by it, regardless of who you voted for. If it's starting to sink in, we should note that the administration is about to turn the volume up even louder. They are now escalating what brought those two to their conversions in their views on Trump and this policy in city after city after city, it's going to get worse. On Friday, ICE deported the father of a U.S. marine who was first detained along with his wife at a Marine base outside of San Diego. In Chicago, more than 1,000 people have been arrested since deportation operations began last month, leading to some incredibly harrowing scenes that have hit the city and the country and mixed documented families in this country on edge all over the country. Scenes like this one. This video is from the New York Times showing a flower vendor being detained or authorities conducting a military style operation on an apartment building in the south side in which children were zip tied. And according to one eyewitness, the agent said f the kids or this agent shooting pepper balls at a pastor who had his hands held up in prayer. Trump's Department of Homeland Security claiming that it is arresting, quote, the worst of the worst, end quote. But brand new reporting from MSNBC blows that lie out of the water. Reveals that out of the more than 1,000 arrests made in Chicago, quote, the agency provided detailed information for only 10, 10 men with criminal background, about 1% of those detained, making independent verification difficult. The public intra maga backlash to the open cruelty of Donald Trump's mass deportation campaign is where we start today with some of our favorite reporters and friends. MSNBC senior national and political correspondent Jacob Sobroff is at the table. Plus, polestor and president of Brilliant Corners Research, MSNBC political analyst Cornell Belcher, also at the table. And we miss you at the table. Tim Miller, MSNBC political analyst, host of the Bulwark podcast, Tim Miller also joins us. Jacob, this is your new reporting we landed on. Take us through it.

[Jacob Soboroff]

Well, this is, I mean, it is heartening, I think in some measure to hear the clip you Played from Joe Rogan. It is heartening to hear Marjorie Taylor Greene, but like you, I think back when I hear that to what I saw on the floor of the Republican convention. They weren't saying it when the sign said mass deportations now, but they are waking up to the fact that mass deportations are family separation by another name. And anybody who pays any amount of attention to this knows that and has known that for the better part of over a year now, since they were pushing this in the summer at the convention. But now it's actually playing out on the streets all across the country. And Chicago is the latest place where I saw it. And Kay Guerrero, our senior producer and I spent the better part of a week there last week. We saw over the course of just one day, multiple detentions happening of multiple people going about their quotidian activities. And so we wanted to dive deeper to understand, well, is what we saw the exception or is it the rule? And it is the rule. They talk about that apartment building on the South Shore where they detained 37 people. Eight of those 37 had some form of criminal record. One of them has some association with Trent Aragua. When we look at Maricela.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Let me just interrupt you. So who authorized the helicopter to pursue one alleged member of Trend Aragua?

[Jacob Soboroff]

I don't. And so the honest answer is I can't tell you the specific person, but that kind of an operation. Greg Mavino is the chief patrol agent of the Border Patrol. He went from Los Angeles to Chicago to carry out what they did on the streets of la, on the streets of Chicago. And for me it was like deja vu. It was like seeing the same scenes play out in almost exactly the same order. First they come out with literally flashbangs. The type of sort of shock and awe to people on the street would say terrorize the community. And then you see who they're really going after. Like Maricela, the 53 year old mother who was just going to buy meat for a stew. And just to remind everybody we have more reporting about her. But I would love to show everybody, everybody a little bit of that detention. Watch this. What's your. Yes, I am.

[Michael Crowley]

What's your best citizen?

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

I am.

[Tim Miller]

Are you okay? I gotta need you to stay away from here.

[Jacob Soboroff]

All right?

[Tim Miller]

Hey, hey, senora familia.

[MSNBC Promo/Announcer]

Don't touch me.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

You're not allowed to touch me. Look at. Guys, look at this fascist right here.

[Rick Stengel]

She's in.

[Jacob Soboroff]

Shoe. Was going to. Going to buy meat for a stew as we talked about last week and.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Now why Wouldn't the agent just tell the witness her why? Why is taking people away and keeping them anonymous part of their protocol?

[Jacob Soboroff]

Because that is what they want people to see. The show of force is the point, Adam Serwer said. The cruelty is the point. Letting people see this is the point. They want these images to be out. They're making their own videos. Department of Homeland Security is walking around Chicago with a film crew.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Why are they telling people to get away?

[Jacob Soboroff]

Because I think that what they don't want is for people to actually intervene and stop it from happening so that they can have this type of content to show. And so 70% of people in ICE detention have no criminal record right now. 70% of people, when they said they're going after the worst of the worst, and you said it, 10 people is who they provided evidence for. Out of the 1,000 detained since the beginning of September in Chicago.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

One of the problems that they seem to have is they lost Joe Rogan. He'll bring with him his sort of coalition of comedians slash pundits from, in his world, I'm sure if they see things the way he does on this issue, which they don't always, but they often do. One of the problems is that even this, this has got about a 36% approval rating among the American people. It's so operationalized now, they can only keep doubling and tripling down. What do they do with all the former FBI agents turned ICE agents? What do they do with having more money than any law enforcement or national security agency in the country?

[Jacob Soboroff]

They're going to look to fill beds. And that's what that 75 the number. Right? $75 billion is intended to do. Create more detention space with more private immigration prisons than any time before in American history. What Donald Trump wants is to do what Barack Obama actually did, dep more people than any president in the history of the United States. And he has failed. He failed in his first term to do that. And now he is making the biggest push that he, that he possibly can. But the one thing that can stop him is the same thing that stopped him in the first term, which is tens of thousands of people going out into the streets. And guess what? That's the other thing I saw in Chicago last week. A spontaneous massive protest of something like 7 to 10,000 people, organizers say, marching up and down the same Michigan Avenue that those agents kitted out in tactical gear and long rifles before the National Guard even made it to the streets of Illinois, Illinois to try to stop this. And it's what drove them out of Los Angeles. It's what's going to drive them out of Chicago. And I think that it's going to drive them out of other cities as well.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

You said he's trying to do what Obama did, but he can't. What did Obama do at a policy level that's so different?

[Jacob Soboroff]

Well, he certainly didn't do this. And it was not, I think, look, there will be advocates who say there were interior removals that tore apart families. Read Dr. William Lopez. He has a new book out now about raids in the heartland of the United States and how these have played out under multiple presidents. But he didn't have wide scale, indiscriminate, family separation style raids like Donald Trump and Stephen Miller and Tom Oman and Kristi Noem are effectuating on the streets of this country right now for the purpose only of hitting the numbers that Stephen Miller wants to hit Barack Obama. I'm not justifying it in any way. I think any of the advocates would say it was very damaging and traumatic, traumatic, traumatizing to the children that were caught in those policies. But for Donald Trump, and I'm not objectively, this is what they said the point was to harm people with family separation. The point is to hurt these communities so that other people. There are ads running in Chicago in English with Kristi Noemi on television offering people money to leave the country. They want as many people as possible to leave. And the way they think they can do that is by scaring the holy hell out of people by putting these images on television. That is not what prior administrations did. This is a whole new level.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

If you take the parts of this that. Let's just go with Joe Rogan because he's speaking publicly and the MAGA coalition listens to him. He doesn't like deporting people who've been here 20 years who haven't committed crimes. Pew Polling had that number at about, I think 8% of Americans supported deporting people married to a US citizen. It's about 12 who supported people. I mean, there were always micro, micro numbers of people who supported what's actually happening. 87% of Americans, according to Times CNN support deporting adjudicated violent criminals. And the whole program is built around deporting the people that 8% of Americans want gone.

[Cornell Belcher]

Yeah, well, look, the cruelty is the point. Well, yes, cruelty is the point, but I want to go a little deeper than that. Right. Look, this doesn't lower the prices of gas or eggs or groceries. And I keep hearing over and over again how is the price of things and it's inflation that people were so worried about and so worried about it. This does none of that. And look, I'm glad that Margie Taylor Greene is finally not ignoring facts anymore. Right?

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

That's good.

[Cornell Belcher]

Right. And Joe Rogan is coming, is coming, is coming along with this. And look, you're hearing in other parts of the country. And look, I think you've interviewed, like, you know, farmers who are having a hard time bringing in crops. You know, as an African American at this moment, I want to sit back and say, you know what? Now you have skin in this game, something that we've been wanting for a long time. This is xenophobia. This is bigotry. This is replacement theory at work. And what we've wanted for a long time is for Main street calling it what it is, Main street white people to have skin in this game. And perhaps now we're seeing with the hurt and the harm that's being done all across the country that Main street white people have a skin in this game and they don't like it. I hope it's a moment.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

I mean, the other moment that I think we've had, like, this was when the market tumbled, when he tried to fire Jerome Powell and he rolled out Independence Day, the tariffs. And when the market trembled, I had the same feeling because I was like Elsa and frozen. Do you want to build a snowman? Do you want to save democracy? Right. Like, every month leading up to the election, I was like, why don't you give a. You know what, That a person who doesn't believe we should remain a democracy might win and sidelines, sidelines, sidelines. And I would say that they're still not in the game.

[Cornell Belcher]

Well, there's consequences. Right. But what I do take to heart, look, and I'm glad that Rogan and other Republicans are coming out. But if you look at the data right now, he's still at 86% approval among independents. Some of it. Some of the strong approval has been softening. But, Nicole, he's collapsed with independence.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

If you look at the Latest, he's at 86among Republicans.

[Michael Crowley]

Yes.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Which is a shrinking number.

[Cornell Belcher]

This is a shrinking number.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

There are two things in that number. Right. And correct me if I have this wrong, but he's at 86. But it's a smaller pool.

[Rick Stengel]

Yes.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

And then he's. So there are more independents and the numbers down.

[Cornell Belcher]

And something we pay attention to in polling a lot is the strength, not just the broadness, the strength. And so the strength of that Support is weakening, but it is cratered among independents. Right. He's Underwater better than 30 points with independents. And look, independents broke fairly even in the last election. Right. If you go into another election Day where independents are cratering against Donald Trump and the Republican Party, I think you have a really different kind of outcome. And maybe the people on Election Day, if there is an election, can put a check on this.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Tim Miller, let me bring you in on this. Your thoughts.

[Tim Miller]

We're going to have elections. I hear you, Cornell. I hear that joke. We're going to have elections and a lot of these guys are to get thrown out. Look, the interesting thing about the Marjorie Taylor Greene quote, I thought was her saying that she's going to live in reality, something to that effect going forward. I'm going to be in reality. This was her effort moment. So welcome to reality. Welcome to. That's great. I love that.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

I feel like we should send her a basket or.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, yeah, the water's warm here in reality. And so that part, that is the funny part. And it's like, okay, well, great, that's a good place to start. But there is like this kernel of truth there about, about where the pushback can come from, particularly on this issue when it comes to immigration, is that the other people have new people have to live in reality that haven't been before. Right. And I think this is true to the Rogan point. This is true to folks that are watching other networks at this time, like what Trump, what has to happen is that what Trump is doing has to be bad enough that people's unreality is pierced. Right. And that was, to your point, about how that happened after Liberation Day. That was starting to happen for a little bit on the tariffs before he tacoed. And you can sense that it is starting to happen here. And it sucks that we're here, that that has to be our situation. But if all of us can do our job of. And Jacob, obviously at the front lines on the ground, do our job of shooting, showing people the videos of this, of what is happening and having people see firsthand the way regular people are being menaced, the way, you know, old ladies going to get meat for a stew are getting menaced, the way that US Citizens are being menaced. You know, I interviewed George Reddis for the board podcast last week. This guy that was the security guard outside the weed farm in California who was a US citizen, a veteran. And he gets target, he gets tear gassed, racially targeted, jailed for three days, two days in, in isolation, or he said he was naked and the lights were on and he's in solitary confinement for two days without access to a lawyer, without access to family. His he missed his daughter's birthday. She didn't know where he was. Like those stories, the examples of US Citizens, of veterans getting menaced, of people trying to live their lives, having it be disrupted by, you know, these masked agents. There is a new batch of people that can be God on that, that are not for that, as long as they are made aware that it happened, that it's happened. Right. And like that, that is the challenging part.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

This is so good. You're all so good. I have to sneak in a break though. I need you all to stay ahead for all four of us. The Trump administration is now saying that it is considering actually escalating Donald Trump's use of the military on US Streets as former President Barack Obama issues a dire warning that this is not the time for anyone to stay on the sidelines. And later, scenes of joy and relief and tears in Israel. It has been an emotional day, to say the least. After more than 700 days in captivity, the last remaining hostages have returned home to their families. We'll show you some of those emotional reunions when Deadline White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere. It's Cybersecurity awareness month and LifeLock is here with tips to help protect your identity.

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Continues implementing his ambitious agenda. Follow along with MSNBC's newest newsletter, Project 47. You'll get weekly updates sent straight to your inbox with expert analysis on the administration's latest actions and how they're affecting the American people.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

The American people are basically telling the President that they are not okay with any of this.

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[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

We're back with Jacob Cornell and Tim. I feel like we could solve everything. Jacob, just tell me. I mean, Pritzker seems to have been made for this moment or to be emulating what Gavin Newsom pioneered, both as an advocate for his city and state and Karen Bass as well for her city. But just, just tell me, tell me where you see this heading this week and in the coming days.

[Jacob Soboroff]

Well, I think what they have all come to realize and understand is that not only is this a usurpation of their power, at least that's what they say. That's what Bass said on the streets. That's what Newsom was saying when it came to the calling up of the Guard and the deployment of the Marines. Obviously he's not going to deploy the Marines to la, but when the Marines were on the streets of LA and Pritzker as well, and what they are communicating when they're saying come get me, come arrest me, is that he said to me, he said, I don't know if we'll have an election. And we were joking about it, but I don't know if we'll have an election in 2026 or we will have the military outside of the ballot boxes. And so they are taking this from just an immigration related issue to saying democracy is on the line here, ladies and gentlemen. And I think that's part of what is compelling people that as you said, Cornell may not have otherwise showed up for an immigration protest into the streets. That protest of 10 or 7 or 10,000 people up and down Michigan Avenue was just, was not your ordinary immigration protest. That was people from all walks of life. On the night that the Cubs future was on the line in Chicago, it was a really electric, impressive thing to see. And I think because their local leaders are standing up and saying this is about your neighbors, documented and undocumented. But it's not just about the future of who gets to live in this country. It's whether or not we get to have a free country at all.

[Cornell Belcher]

And Nicole, I'm going to go, I'm going to be bad guy here because I'm going to say it's not bad for their politics, thinking about running for president, right? You look at Pritzker and you look at Newsom, you know, they've been outspoken, they've taken on this fight. They're doing everything the base has asked that they want to see more Democrats doing. And again, I'm completely neutral. I never want to work another presidential campaign as long as I live. But I got to tell you, I think this positions them well in a crowded field going into a Democratic primary.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Let me just, let me just give you an alternate analysis. I mean, president of what? Because, right? Because like, if this doesn't win. President of what? And I think that the MAGA world braids these things together. Right. Why do 48 states pass voter suppression laws? They pass them predicated on a lie that Bill Barr told us was a lie. He told us it was bull bleep. It's Monday. I'll try to go through two hours without swearing. So the same thing with immigration raids and militarized federal law enforcement. Like, what are they the streets for? Only the pro democracy side is trying to answer that question to maga. It's a lollapalooza. They're there for all of it. They're there for. They're there for mass deportations. They're there to make it scarier to vote. They have no plans on leaving. Like we're the only side trying to unbraid what is just their mass over.

[Cornell Belcher]

Yeah, but like, I'm not kidding when I'm not sure there's going to be an election. I'm not right. Fingers crossed. I hope there's going to be election. But if I look at everything that's happening in this country right Now, I'm not 100% sure that these people aren't going to block an election. That he's not going to.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

A free and fair election.

[Cornell Belcher]

A free and fair election that he won't, you know, put military on the street. And especially in certain areas of the country, military will be on the street to stop us getting in the way of having a free and fair election.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Tim is the optimist here on the election front. Set us straight.

[Tim Miller]

Well, for starters, a lot of these midterm elections, the key races and the House races are going to happen in blue states in places where people like Gavin Newsom are the governors. And so, you know, who knows what the. We could all catastrophize together. But in the lead up to the elections, if we're concerned about, you know, troops being outside voting locations, Trump's. Trump's forces trying to intimidate folks outside of voting locations. Gavin Newsom and Kathy Hochul and Governor Pritzker and others, you know, could try to counteract that in various ways. And I hope we don't end up in that situation, but that's possible. And a lot of these House races are going to be in blue states or in swing states. So, you know, look, I think that's part of it. And I think that a lot of times these efforts do backfire. And this is not to be scared about anything we can bring. I talked to Mark Elias. And you have. I'm actually kind of more scared about the post election, like whether they try to do stop the steel again and fake seat people. But a lot of times these voter suppression efforts backfire and we're seeing that in the streets now. Like their efforts. I mean, do you think that their efforts to smear the no Kings protesters as antifa and un American and terrorists and all that, do you think that's going to make for smaller protests this week or bigger protests? I think bigger. And so a lot of times these efforts backfire. And I do think that you might see that both in the voting suppression and in the protest space. What's the mean being the optimist?

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

No, no, no, I love it. I love it. This is your job until further notice. But my favorite thing about calling the no Kings protest anti America is it's literally the whole kernel of the idea about America was to not have a king. So, like, if that's become no Kings, like, you know, I'm out. What are we doing here? And I think what is being tested is sor laboratory for fantastical lies. And to me, the news value of Rogan and Greene isn't like, look, it's too icky for them. No. Because they went along with all of the BS ahead of the election. But once you start talking on a podcast, it is infinitely more difficult not to swear when you're having normal conversations. But the whole fantastical nature of no Kings is somehow antifa. No Kings is the most American brand for any protest movement that America could ever have.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, well, and, and I mean, this is them always with the projecting, but it's what they're doing is anti American and there's nothing more. In addition to the kernel of the idea of no Kings being an American idea, the idea of being able to protest and speak out peacefully in March and say that what your government is doing is wrong is a. Is a fundamentally American principle. And, and then on top of that, if you just want to layer into it, I went to the no Kings protest in New Orleans in June and it, you know, it wasn't a antifa type crowd. It is a lot of fanny packs and NPR tote b at the crowd. It's not even attached to reality. So on every level it doesn't work. It's like offensive and a lie. And again, maybe it works in their information silo, but eventually that stuff gets popped. If it's this fantastical and if people see the difference with their own eyes.

[Jacob Soboroff]

Another domino to fall. I think that I've seen as a reporter out in the streets is we've talked about how it's not just the pro immigration folks that are in the streets now, it's the pro democracy people. I think the three of us, you talked about this before, if I'm not mistaken. I think members of the military, if they haven't already, may very well soon start to turn on this administration because of the way that they're being deployed to the streets. It's not just the Barranco children of Narciso Barranco, the Marines whose father was beaten by ICE as he was cutting bushes at IHOP in Santa Ana, California, but it's the people from all of these communities, from which, maybe even Texas, they are deployed and being asked to stand face to face with people who come from communities just like their own, asked to enforce the law in a way that they would overseas or in a combat zone with people from American communities. I can tell you firsthand that members of the National Guard that I've talked to are deeply uncomfortable about having to participate in a mission like this. And we're not talking about a small constituency. We're talking about the members themselves. We're talking about their families, who, if you don't think they're talking to their families about this, you know you're wrong. I can tell you firsthand, I think that there's a, there are more constituencies yet to turn on this administration for the way that they're using the military in the streets, not just for immigration enforcement, but, you know, in the context of this democracy.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Well, and that's, you know, John Kelly's final warning before the election to America was that what he wanted to do and was blocked by people like Kelly and Madison Milley, was to put the military on the streets. And the reason it's bad, it's bad for a whole bunch of reasons. It's bad for Americans on the street who shouldn't be policed by our own military. But it's ultimately the worst for the members of the military who in a natural disaster show up to help and in a time of war, go far away to fight.

[Jacob Soboroff]

The question I would ask if I was Donald Trump's opponent is do you really want a demoralized national guard all in 50 states across the union, because they're waiting to be deployed to hold long rifles up against their neighbors in between ICE detention centers and protests on the street. That is something for everybody, I think, who's joining the military today, 17, 18, 19 years old, to think about that they may be deployed for that purpose rather than the one that they think is a noble calling to stand in defense of this nation abroad.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Incredible. Thank you all for starting me off today like this. I needed that. Your new reporting is online now, right?

[Jacob Soboroff]

It is. I think there's a QR code on.

[Tim Miller]

The bottom of the screen.

[Jacob Soboroff]

I hope everybody can scan it and take a look because it will really debunk the things that you're hearing from this on the street.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Right. I see the headline. I didn't see the QR code, but we'll get it up there. It's on just who these agents are picking up on the streets of Chicago. It's on our website right now. But I feel like you challenged me. I'll find a QR code.

[Jacob Soboroff]

There it is.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Oh, there it is. There it is. See, you're asking. Magic happens is our command. Thank you, Jacob. Thank you, Parnell. Thank you, Tim. Up next, their home. The Israelis taken hostage now more than two years ago in a terrorist attack have returned to their families, to a country and the rest of the world now breathing a sigh of relief and hope. We'll bring you that story.

[MSNBC Promo/Announcer]

MSNBC presents the chart topping original podcast, the Best People with Nicole Wallace. This week, she sits down with actor Martin Sheen.

[Jacob Soboroff]

It's a mighty battle going on. It's not about winning or losing. It's about being in touch with your own personal humanity because there's such a lack of it coming from this administration.

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[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

The second Trump administration has gone to unprecedented lengths to radically transform America.

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Stay up to speed with our latest podcasts and documentaries and get fresh perspectives from experts shaping the news. News, it's everything you love about MSNBC delivered to your inbox. Sign up [e-mail] hey, everyone, it's Chris Hayes.

[Jacob Soboroff]

This week on my podcast, why Is this Happening? Cultural anthropologist Richard Grinker on why the autism discourse has become so political. The truth of the rise of autism as a diagnosis and the truth about what causes the whole autism spectrum isn't satisfying. If you're looking for a single cause.

[Michael Crowley]

And effect because you gotta go into.

[Jacob Soboroff]

Well, there are more child psychiatrists now, and we've improved our special education and they broadened the criteria and on and on.

[Michael Crowley]

And all of those things are what act in concert.

[Jacob Soboroff]

But the single bullet, the magic bullet is so seductive. That's this week on why is this Happening? Search for why is this Happening? Wherever you're listening right now. And follow wow.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

I've been watching those reunions all day and it's an amazing thing to see. We're, of course, following the major news out of Israel and Gaza today. The first time of a peace deal agreed to on Friday. Beginning this morning, all 20 living hostages in Gaza have been released two years after they were kidnapped by Hamas militants in the terrorist attack on October 7, 2023. These emotional scenes were captured in these images of their arrival at the border. Tens of thousands gathered in Tel Aviv's hostage Square. They fell completely silent to watch the first moments of unimaginable relief as their sons and daughters, loved ones finally got to embrace each other as part of the peace plan. Today, emotional scenes in Gaza as well. Israel released 250 prisoners serving life sentences and more than 1700 Palestinians detained after the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. But even in the wake of these emotional scenes, there's still a lot of unanswered questions and a lot to figure out, particularly on the future of Gaza as many Palestinians return home to complete rubble and destruction. There remains a lot of concern on both sides about the fragility of the agreement that Donald Trump publicly celebrated today before Israeli parliament, which Hamas is already being accused of violating. Families learning today that they'd be receiving the bodies of loved ones of just four deceased hostages out of the 28 held by Hamas. I'm going to bring into our coverage New York Times diplomatic correspondent Michael Crowley. And joining me at the table, former under secretary of State for public diplomacy and public affairs during the Obama administration. MSNBC political analyst Rick Stengel is here. Michael Crowley, just bring me up to date. I know we've all been covering this all day, but what is happening now and what is expected to happen in the coming hours?

[Michael Crowley]

Well, Nicole, you know, the final pieces of this first phase are being implemented. As you've seen, the living hostages are coming home. We're already seeing snags involving the return of the many hostages who died in captivity. And there are now claims of foul play by the Israelis saying that Hamas is not actually making good on their agreements to deliver those bodies, bodies the way they said they would. So that is a hitch that's already unfolding here. But you're also critically going to start seeing aid, humanitarian aid, surging into Gaza. So those images of joy among Israelis who are finally being reunited will increasingly be accompanied by images of Gazans who have adequate food and medical supplies for the first time in a long time and who are looking forward to an increased quality of life and sort of getting back to some form of normalcy. But I close Nicole with the cautionary note here, not wanting to be a wet blanket on this day of celebration and joy and talk of all the best that world politics has to offer, which is the promise of peace and cooperation. To say that the hardest questions here have been pushed forward, and this is just a relatively small part of the huge problem that needs to be solved with many, many components, and people are not on the same page. There is a lot of politicking and arguing and quite possibly violence to come. So a big question will be after the ceremonies are over and the reunions are finished, who's going to be doing the hard work? How committed will they be? And will the parties be willing to make sacrifices and take political risks to try to bring lasting peace to Gaza and then potentially to start building this larger peace in the region that the president is talking about, which I would just conclude by saying is very premature to be proclaiming, even as there's so much to be thanked for on this day.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Rick?

[Rick Stengel]

Yeah, no, I think Mike had it right. I mean, I just also want to say it's impossible to watch those videos with a dry eye. It's incredibly emotional. And by the way, the same token, the release of the Palestinian prisoners, for people seeing their loved ones, also very powerful. And there have been very few happy days in the last couple of years since October 7th. But the problems that caused all this still remain the problems that can cause violence. Again, when you come down to the nub of it is nobody has actually settled the idea of who will govern Gaza. You know, will Hamas really let go of their weapons? I mean, governing Gaza and whether the Palestinian Authority will govern both the west bank and Gaza has been the issue that's been around for decades, since the Oslo Accords, and that isn't resolved. And Trump's kind of special sauce here is to kind of proclaim victory and then figure out the details later. You know, the devil is in the details. So the hell with the details. Let's celebrate. Let's have a bunch of flags, and let's get people committed to this. It's sort of like diplomats went crazy watching this today because it's like, oh, my God, what's even in that agreement? Every single tiny thing is worried about diplomats because they don't want to over promise and underdeliver. Trump has the exact opposite thing. Let's wildly overpromise and then force people to try to deliver to bring in the Gulf states to fund this. But you know, there's still so much unresolved. I mean, the Gulf states need to step up and they've spent billions already on the Palestinians. They'll have to spend exponentially more. But they don't want to spend money on a state that is still in effect occupied by Israel, but with another name. And that's kind of what we have here.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

All right, we have to sneak in a break. We'll all be right back on the other side. Much more. We are back with Michael Crowley and Rick Sangel. Michael, I want to ask you about US Troops being deployed. Let me read you this from the Washington Post editorial board. Two hundred U.S. troops are being deployed to an air base in southern Israel. They will be assisted by troops from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and uae. This is not without risk. When President Ronald Reagan deployed Marines to oversee the evacuation of Palestinian fighters from Beirut In 83, a suicide bombing killed 241 U.S. service members. There are other outstanding questions about disarming Hamas and guaranteeing that the terrorist group has no future role in governing Gaza, Egypt and Qatar. And Turkey forced the group to accept the deal by threatening to cut off its remaining leaders. Hamas dead enders could stage a suicide attack and fire projectiles into Israel or against American troops. It's just adding to your point about how there' syou know, it's sort of the end of the beginning maybe, and for those families, a really important day to be reunited. But in terms of the rest of the world and even US Troops, it could be the beginning of a new phase.

[Michael Crowley]

Yeah, absolutely, Nicole. And you know, I think it's worth remembering that when Trump brokered the Abraham Accords late in his first term as president and he oversaw these normalization, diplomatic normalization agreements between Israel and some of its Gulf Arab neighbors, he went around at that time saying it was a new dawn of peace in the Middle east and he had brokered peace in the Middle east and why wasn't he going to get a Nobel Prize? And we all know what happened just a few years later. I mean, under any circumstances, it's very audacious and dangerous to declare peace in the Middle East. But particularly in a situation where you have Israeli troops inside of Gaza, a population that's devastated and many people undoubtedly furious looking for vengeance. Deep political fissures within Israel about how to proceed. Just so many complicated questions to resolve. And sure, throwing in American troops, even that small a number adds to the combustibility of it. So, again, it's a great day. The deal was great. I think that it is possible there's a case to be made that it required Trump's kind of totally out of the box, unpredictable version of diplomacy such as it is, to pull this off. But the question is as how lasting an achievement is this and does it actually lay the groundwork for longer term solutions? And I think people are, it would be reasonable for people to remain pretty skeptical about that right now.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

What are you watching in the coming days, Rick?

[Rick Stengel]

Well, if there is a deployment of American troops, that's another unknown. What is this stabilization force, who's going to participate in? And certainly the Hamas dead enders don't want kind of everything to break out in peace. They're going to try to try to explode things. So, you know, to your point about it, is it maybe the end of the beginning? Are people going to actually work on this and try to flesh out that agreement, that 20 point agreement that the Americans proposed, I mean, is still even so very, very vague and we don't really know what includes even the number 20, which is this kind of genuflecting toward maybe a two state solution. You know, Bibi is still against that. So, you know, what I would pray for and hope for is that people really in good faith work on this, that the US Works on it, the Gulf states work on it. The European nations were there, of course, they've all declared Palestine a state already.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

That's just the unga. Yeah, yeah.

[Rick Stengel]

So that's just one of the hurdles. But, but it actually takes work and discipline. Part of the problem of the Middle east for decades is that there hasn't been follow up. There have been many new dawns. You know, there have been many ceasefires, but then we got what we got in Gaza.

[Host/Anchor (possibly Nicole Wallace or another main host)]

Michael Crowley and Rick Sangel, thank you for your informed contributions on this today and grateful to both of you. Up next, some airports are now pushing back against Kristi Noem when it comes to the government shutdown. We'll show that to you next. The Trump administration is getting more pushback from interesting places over its use of government resources to wage a highly partisan media campaign on the government shutdown. With airports in more than a half a dozen U.S. cities declining, refusing to play a video of DHS Secretary Christy Noem blaming congressional Democrats for travel delays from the Washington Post reporting on this story. Quote, officials that oversee airports in Buffalo, Charlotte, Cleveland, Portland, Phoenix, and Seattle said the video could violate internal policies that bar political messaging or contravene state or federal law that prohibits the use of public resources for political activity. A spokesperson for Portland's airport says this, quote, we believe the Hatch act clearly prohibits use of public assets for political purposes and messages. We'll stay on top of that story. Up next, the Trump administration says the Insurrection act is on the table in American cities. How people are preparing and standing up against it. When Deadline White House continues after quick break.