“Senator Mark Kelly versus Pete Hegseth”

Summary

Podcast Summary: Deadline: White House

Episode Title: Senator Mark Kelly versus Pete Hegseth
Host: Nicolle Wallace (MS NOW)
Date: May 7, 2026

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Overview

In this episode, Nicolle Wallace leads an urgent, in-depth discussion on the legal and political battle between Senator Mark Kelly—a decorated astronaut, Navy veteran, and husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords—and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, acting on behalf of President Donald Trump. The central issue: Hegseth’s attempt to censure Kelly for participating in a video reminding military personnel of their right to disobey illegal orders, a core principle taught in U.S. military academies. Court proceedings have placed fundamental questions of free speech, military ethics, and democratic accountability at the forefront. Throughout the hour, Wallace and her panel of national security and political experts examine the repercussions for military rank and file, the shifting identity of the Republican Party under Trump, and the intersection of policy, economics, and morality in the 2026 political landscape.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Senator Mark Kelly’s Legal Battle and Its Broader Stakes

[01:06–04:39]

• Oral arguments focused on Defense Secretary Hegseth’s effort to censure and strip Kelly of rank/pay after he warned, alongside other veterans, that military personnel have a duty to disobey illegal orders.
• Judges on the panel (notably Florence Pan and Nina Pillard) questioned the administration’s logic, reinforcing that Kelly’s message echoed what is “taught at West Point and the Naval Academy.”
• Quote—Judge Florence Pan:
  “These are people who serve their country… Many put their lives on the line, and you’re saying that they have to give up their retired status in order to say something that is a textbook example… that you can disobey illegal orders.” ([01:29])
• Kelly, flanked by veterans and family (including Gabby Giffords), denounced the administration’s efforts as a direct attack on free speech and democratic norms.
• Quote—Senator Mark Kelly:
  “If you say something that the president or this administration does not like, they’re going to come after you. The president is trying to silence us. And I can’t think of anything that’s more un-American… I will not back down.” ([03:07])

Implications:

• The case is framed as not simply a legal dispute but as a bellwether test of democratic norms and the ability of military leaders—active and retired—to safeguard institutional values against presidential overreach.

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Military Law, Free Speech, and Chilling Effects

[06:16–08:16]

• David French underscores America’s foundation on dissent and the importance of the non-partisan military ethic.
• Trump’s actions are critiqued as reminiscent of autocracies:
  “He has a cult of personality that would be at home in North Korea… anybody who dares to criticize Donald Trump will have the Department of Justice and FBI… go after them.” ([06:46])
• John Kirby highlights the chilling effect on serving and retired officers.
  “When you retire, you’re still getting a pension… but you don’t give up your right to free speech.” ([08:38])

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The Erosion of First Amendment Values

[09:40–12:08]

• Panelists agree Trump's administration is “the worst free speech presidency since Woodrow Wilson.”
  “All direct attacks on free speech… [and] an enormous amount of hypocrisy about free speech.” —David French ([10:26])
• The administration loses constitutional challenges in court but with a calculated “process as punishment” deterrent to dissent:
  “There is a deterrent effect… people will keep their mouth shut. This is classic chilling effect behavior.” ([11:06])

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Why the Stand by Kelly and the “Six” Matters

[12:33–14:55]

• Sarah Longwell notes the unique credibility and unity among the six veterans taking on Trump, calling out his lack of military service and character.
• Their “won’t back down-ness” and resolve are presented as a model, reflecting backbone earned in service and in politics.
• French draws a line between compromise in policy and clarity in matters of constitutional or moral right, emphasizing the ultimate judgment of history for those who resist proto-fascism.
• Quote—David French:
  “Those institutions and people who stood up against proto-fascism… history will judge them well. And those… who bent the knee… will forever carry that stain.” ([14:33])

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Political, Economic, and Moral Accountability

[15:12–17:33]

• Wallace and French discuss how Democrats must connect accountability to issues voters feel—namely, economic hardship worsened by Trump’s actions (tariffs, war).
• David French: “We’re going to win the election based on addressing… the most painful for the American people. And behind that comes accountability because we’re a rule of law society.” ([16:01])
• Trump’s pervasive corruption is discussed, especially as it collides with economic struggles, fueling voter anger.
  “He’s running the most corrupt administration I’ve ever seen… voters are more tolerant of corruption when they feel comfortable financially… but now, 55% are negative about their own finances.” —David French ([17:33–19:14])

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Trump-World Dysfunction: Policy, Allies, and International Perceptions

[21:19–28:24]

• Segment pivots to foreign policy, focusing on Marco Rubio and Secretary of State’s attempts to defend or “clean up” after Trump’s erratic decisions.
• Trump’s public attacks on Pope Leo XIV (the first American pope) and reversals on the Iran war highlight the instability.
• David French:
  “You just bully your way through politics. He’s now learning you can’t bully your way through all of life… institutions are not yielding to him internationally.” ([22:39])
• “In a weird way, amongst Republicans, Rubio’s star is rising… as the most eloquent defender… it’s a very strange place to be.” ([25:04])
• The Iranian regime is presented as outmaneuvering the U.S. because of Trump’s inconsistency, with control over the Strait of Hormuz and indirect power over global energy prices.
  “The Iranians see we are now in charge.” ([27:12–28:24])

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The Economic Reality: Gas Prices and Voter Discontent

[29:39–35:28]

• Wallace and her panel break down the public’s financial pain from record-high gas prices—a direct effect of war and tariffs initiated by Trump.
• Senator Mark Kelly observes administration spin on economic indicators, conflating credit card debt with financial health: “The consumer is really, really firing on all cylinders… credit card spending is through the roof.” ([30:21])
• Charlotte Howard (Economist):
  “Stock market is doing pretty well, which is what higher income Americans care about. But gas prices… are imposing costs on many lower and middle income Americans.” ([32:47–33:34])
• David French highlights the symbolic and real burden of gas inflation:
  “Gas is often the most prominent thing… because you see the price on billboards… you cannot hide gas inflation.” ([34:04])

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Republican Party Dynamics & Accountability Avoidance

[37:26–40:49]

• Republicans are depicted as unwilling or unable to empathize with voters’ economic pain, instead performing for their most hardcore primary voters.
• David French:
  “[The party is] wholly owned not just by Donald Trump, but also by its primary voters. The primary voter wants to see the media disrespected… I’ve never seen a party… warp away… to serve in total one community.” ([39:04])
• This dynamic is shown as short-sighted, likely to cost them seats in November unless there’s a significant shift:
  “For dozens of them, at least in the House, it’s probably going to cost them their jobs in November, barring some big changes.” ([40:49])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (With Timestamps)

• “These are people who serve their country. Many put their lives on the line, and you’re saying that they have to give up their retired status in order to say something that is a textbook example… that you can disobey illegal orders.”
  —Judge Florence Pan ([01:29])

• “If you say something that the president or this administration does not like, they’re going to come after you. The president is trying to silence us. And I can’t think of anything that’s more un-American… I will not back down.”
  —Senator Mark Kelly ([03:07])

• “He has a cult of personality that would be at home in North Korea… anybody who dares to criticize Donald Trump will have the Department of Justice and FBI… go after them.”
  —David French ([06:46])

• “When you retire… you don’t give up your right to free speech. You don’t give up your obligation as an American citizen to express your views in a meaningful, respectful way.”
  —John Kirby ([08:38])

• “It’s the worst free speech presidency since the McCarthy era, and it might be the worst free speech presidency since Woodrow Wilson.”
  —David French ([10:26])

• “We have a system… that requires us to compromise on policy issues… On issues of the Constitution… right or wrong… there is no compromise.”
  —David French ([14:33])

• “Those institutions and people who stood up against proto-fascism… history will judge them well.”
  —David French ([14:33])

• “He’s running the most corrupt administration I’ve ever seen in my entire life. At the same time that he’s engaging in economic behaviors that are hurting Americans…”
  —David French ([17:33])

• “You just bully your way through politics. He’s now learning you can’t bully your way through all of life… institutions… are not yielding to him internationally.”
  —David French ([22:39])

• “The Iranians see we are now in charge.”
  —David French ([28:24])

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Major Segments & Timestamps

• Opening & Theme: [01:06] — Framing legal and political significance of Kelly v. Hegseth
• Judicial Perspectives: [01:29–02:38]
• Sen. Kelly's Statement: [03:07–04:39]
• Panel Analysis – Military Values vs. Trumpism: [06:16–10:26]
• Chilling Effect & Free Speech Threats: [10:26–12:08]
• Political Resistance & Accountability: [12:33–14:55]
• Democratic Strategy—Economic Pain & Political Fallout: [15:12–17:33]
• Trump World’s Instability – Rubio, Iran, International Actors: [21:19–28:24]
• Economic Pain – Gas Prices, Voter Sentiment: [29:39–35:28]
• GOP Dynamics, Accountability, and Base Politics: [37:26–40:49]

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Final Thoughts

This episode of Deadline: White House presents a sharp, urgent look at the collision of Trump-era political norms, military values, and economic reality in the run-up to a critical election cycle. The discussion, rich with constitutional insight and political analysis, warns of the danger in silencing dissent and highlights the courage of those—like Mark Kelly and his allied veterans—who take principled, historic stands. The mood is sober but fiercely committed to democratic values, with an underlying challenge: how will America’s institutions, voters, and leaders respond in this moment of stress and transformation?

Transcript

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[Chris Hayes]

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[Chris Hayes (continuation)]

We're right now in a situation where it's very difficult to understand what is real and what's not real.

[Chris Hayes]

Why is this happening? The AI Endgame, a special miniseries from Ms. Now. Start listening today wherever you get your podcasts.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Hi there everyone. It's four o'clock in New York. A major legal development to tell you about today in that standoff between six Democratic lawmakers, all of them veterans of the U.S. military or of national security agencies, who simply warn the men and women of the military of their obligation to ignore any illegal orders. Oral arguments took place over Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's decision to censure one of those six, Senator Mark Kelly, a move that would have stripped Kelly of rank and pay. Kelly won a preliminary injunction in court and Hegseth appealed. But today, before a three judge panel, arguments did not appear to go Team Trump's way. One judge, Judge Florence Pan, saying this to the Justice Department, quote, these are people who serve their country. Many put their lives on the line and you're saying that they have to give up their retired status in order to say something that is a textbook example taught at West Point and the Naval Academy, that you can disobey illegal orders. Another judge, Judge Nina Pillard, sang this of Kelly's message in the video, quote, that is something that is taught at Annapolis to every cadet. He added this quote, the text of the video, which I take to really be the fulcrum of this entire case, advises that service members have no obligation to obey unlawful orders. Nobody in the video says service members have a duty to disobey lawful orders. Here's a reminder of what Kelly and the others said in their video.

[Senator Mark Kelly]

Like us, you all swore an oath

[Chris Hayes (continuation)]

to protect and defend this Constitution.

[David French]

Right now, the threats to our Constitution aren't just coming from abroad, but from

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

right here at home.

[Senator Mark Kelly]

Our laws are clear. You can refuse illegal orders.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

It went on a little longer, but that was it. That was the gist of it. After the hearing today, Senator Kelly, flanked by veterans and his family, including his wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, had this to say.

[Senator Mark Kelly]

They're trying to send a message to other retired veterans and really to all of us. If you say something that the president, where this administration does not like, they're going to come after you. The president is trying to silence us. And I can't think of anything that's more un American. Just like these folks behind me, I signed up to serve our country and protect our freedoms, including the freedom of speech. Most of us joined to be part of something bigger than ourselves, to protect and serve the country we love. I know Donald Trump doesn't understand that and he doesn't understand us. This administration has bullied and coerced the press, private companies and universities. The list goes on. But in this case, the president and the Secretary of defense picked the wrong guy because when it comes to our most fundamental rights, I will not back down. Given what's at stake, I appreciate the judge's quick and careful consideration.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Senator Mark Kelly's legal battle with P tegseth and the Pentagon and its enormous implications and consequences for the men and women of the military and the US Military at large, as well as the state of our democracy is where we begin today. National security analyst for US John Kirby is here. He was the press secretary for the Pentagon. He also served as a spokesperson for both the State Department and the National Security Council at the White House. Before that he he was rear admiral in the Navy. Also joining us, New York Times opinion columnist David French. He's a former major in the United States Army Reserve and served as a JAG in the Iraq war. I'm happy to have you on this hour. I watch you all the time. On other hours on this network and with us at the table, House Intelligence Committee's ranking member, Democratic Congressman Jim Himes of Connecticut. Congressman, I start with you. Two thoughts. One, Senator Mark Kelly has gained such sort of not stature he already had. I don't know how you could have much more stature than being an astronaut and a senator and married to Gabby Giffords. But he is so, it seems, invigorated and strengthened by this fight with Donald Trump. There's no way to a better way to sort of figure out how to beat Donald Trump than to fight Donald Trump day in and day out. So my first thought in watching that he sounds more presidential than the guy that we currently have. But the other is this thing that comes through every time he speaks about this is that Donald Trump doesn't understand the military. He does not understand why they do what they do. He does not fundamentally understand that they are not attacking him personally. They are defending an institution they love.

[David French]

Yeah, he said it perfectly. And he doesn't. The president doesn't understand the core values of this country, that we were a country literally founded on dissent. You know, a bunch of our founders said, we're not putting up with this king anymore and at risk of their lives, they said, founding a country where dissent is cherished. And of course, then you have Donald Trump, who has a cult of personality that would be at home in North Korea. Because what these cases have in common are they are people who have disagreed with Donald Trump. And it's not just Mark Kelly. And look, this case is getting tossed out of court in a split second because they simply restated the law taught at West Point in Annapolis, which is that not only can you disobey an illegal order, you must disobey a legal order. But it goes, you know, Bob Mueller, decorated Marine and director of the FBI. Right. And Donald Trump says it's good that he's dead. The chairman of the Federal Reserve investigations, of Adam Schiff investigations, of John Brennan, who is standing behind the senator there. Anybody who dares to criticize Donald Trump will have the Department of Justice and the FBI and the lackeys who run those institutions go after them.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

What? I think we've grown accustomed to that. But John Kirby, they didn't even criticize Donald Trump. I mean, in some ways, their appetite for malevolence is showing everywhere you turn because all they said was, you have an obligation to not follow an illegal order.

[John Kirby]

That's right. It was nothing more than restating a precept and a concept that everybody in the military officer and enlisted understands from almost day one. Nowhere in that video did they alleged that an order was unlawful. Nowhere in that video did they cast blame on any individual in the Department of Defense or at the White House for issuing an unlawful order. They simply stated, again, a simple fact and a reminder that you cannot, you must not obey an unlawful order. And the men and women in the military, they understand that. They understand that quite well.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

What do the men and women of the military make of the fact that six members of Congress, most of them veterans, are. Donald Trump has tried to prosecute them, and now they're trying to strip Senator Kelly of his rank and retirement for saying something so obvious. It's actually in the textbook.

[John Kirby]

Yeah, I think it's gonna have a chilling effect. I think it already has had a bit of a chilling effect inside the ranks. Certainly inside the Pentagon. You're not hearing a lot at all from generals and admirals and officers that are in charge of yet another war here in the Middle East. There's not a lot of communications. I think there's a real chilling effect about saying anything publicly that could land the wrong way on the Resolute desk. But it's also potentially having a chilling effect. And I've talked to friends who are retired admirals and generals, and there's some of them that feel that chilling effect as well, that they don't want to get out there. They don't want to say anything. They don't want to have their retirement pensions put at risk because they dared to criticize the administration. Look, when you retire, you're still getting a pension, so you are still liable to the Uniform Code of Military Justice. David knows this much better than I do. And you have to respect that and observe that, but you don't give up your right to free speech. You don't give up your obligation as an American citizen to express your views in a meaningful, respectful way.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

I want to ask you, David French, to just give voice to what Trump 2.0 has done to pervert any sort of credible position that anyone in the Republican Party stands for. The First Amendment. I mean, at every single turn in every single news cycle, they're either defending his investigation of a journalist, they're defending his prosecution of six veterans who said disobey illegal orders. The. I mean, I'm old enough, as are you, to remember when an entire crop of then young ish Republicans popped up all over the place talking about the First Amendment as their pillar, plank and platform. And Trump has made fools of all of them.

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

You know, it's the worst free speech presidency since the McCarthy era, and it might be the worst free speech presidency since Woodrow Wilson. And Woodrow Wilson threw hundreds of essentially political opponents in jail. I mean, Woodrow Wilson was a terrible free speech president. We've had attacks on law firms, we've had attacks on military veterans, we've had attacks on journalists, we've had attacks on universities, all on an unconstitutional basis, all direct attacks on free speech. And it's not just attacks on free speech. It's also an enormous amount of hypocrisy about free speech. Because, remember, early in the this Trump 2.0 presidency, J.D. vance went to Europe, to scold Europeans about what? Free speech. And then they come home and they execute essentially a comprehensive plan of attack against political dissent. And they're losing in court again and again and again, but it's not really deterring them. They know that the process is the punishment, that it is a. There is a deterrent effect. Even if you ultimately lose in court, when an administration goes after somebody who wants to pay for the legal fees, who can pay for the legal fees, who wants all of the legal hassle and legal risk, and so people will keep their mouth shut. This is classic chilling effect behavior. And you identified the irony. I mean, part of the reason why Donald Trump became president again was he had this whole anti woke sort of phalanx of supporters who are screaming free speech, free speech, free speech. Then he WINS and he's 10 times worse on free speech than I think any administration I've seen in my lifetime.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

That's incredible. I want to show you. I mean, I agree with everything that David said, but I think it makes these six more important and what they've done and the fact that they haven't been chilled and they continue to try to hold him accountable, important politically. Let me show you something Sarah Longwell said to me about why this matters.

[Sarah Longwell]

Go at him like it is a different moment. I do think Democrats are, I still hear a lot of people being like, well, you know, you got to reach across the aisle and you gotta, you know, try to find common cause with Republicans and that that's good. Okay. But actually, what I like about those six is that they're finding common cause with each other on a, in a space that they understand uniquely well. Donald Trump is a draft dodger who has never done an ounce of service for this country. And so people like them should stand up all day long, talk about their service, what they understand uniquely about it, and why Donald Trump is wrong.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

There is a won't back down ness about the six. When they were reported by the press to be about to be indicted, they were not doing what human instinct might have you do. And maybe that's because they're, they're, they're veterans of, veterans of national security. They were, they were on shows like this when the grand jury did not. I don't think anyone in grand jury indicted them. They were out again. I mean, there is a stay in the ring ness about these six that feels different.

[David French]

Yeah, well, that's right. I mean, for two reasons, right? They all served and so they know what it is to have backbone and they're all officials, they're all elected officials. And we are particularly protected, you know, the speech and debate clause. As public officials, we're particularly protected. But they also have the strength of people who are in the right and they know something that is really important here. And I would just comment really quickly on what Sarah Longwell said. We have a system, and I feel this every single day, that requires us to compromise on policy issues. I do it every day. If it's on housing, where we're working on a big housing deal, you compromise. You sort of have to. On issues of the Constitution to which we all swear and like illegal orders, on issues of right or wrong or ethics or morality, there is no compromise. And so these aren't tough lines. And at the end of the day, especially for elected officials, but also for law firms and for universities, you know, I don't know if it's three, five or ten years from now, but those institutions and people who stood up against proto fascism the way those six did, they will. History will judge them well. And those law firms and those universities and those companies that bent the knee to proto fascism, they will forever carry that stain. And there's a strength in knowing that. Again, we don't know if it's three years from now or five years from now, but talk to anybody who says they're proud for having supported Joe McCarthy. You won't find him. Cuz history will judge this correctly.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

I feel that in my gut. Sometimes my head spins so quickly when you see all of the adaptive behaviors and adaptive press coverage that it's hard to forget. Like what will Democrats do to make sure that that'll be the case?

[David French]

Well, you're asking a political question. Right. And so we need to.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

And a brand question. I mean like I believe the brand of capitulating to Donald Trump, that Paramount is associating itself with that. CBS is associating itself with that. Every law firm that instead of going to court, I mean everyone that went to court has batted a thousand. They've had zero legal setbacks. If they've taken the executive orders punishing law firms to court, they have all won. And for all the firms that capitulated, there's no. And the fact that those are lawyer. I'm not a lawyer, but it seems like the ones that fought it winning in court makes the ones that cave to it bad lawyers. Like, I believe what you're saying in my gut, but I don't always see it in our politics. What is the sort of guarantee that people will be held accountable for this?

[David French]

Yeah, and it's a really good political question because as a practitioner, I will tell you this, we are going to the House is going to switch hands to the Democratic Party in November. And the Senate's in play. Is that because Americans are all of a sudden understanding the emoluments clause or you know, profoundly concerned about lack of principle on the first amend part that. But it's also the fact that gasoline is Now a buck 50 higher than it was before Donald Trump started this insane war. So the answer to your question could fill an hour, but we'll do that hour. We're going to win the election based on addressing the issues that are most painful for the American people. And behind that comes accountability because we're a rule of law society. But Democrats need to be very careful that they're not opening up their political conversation with the emoluments clause. Should we impeach? Should we or not? Because Americans are feeling very real pain because of this president. And we start there and then we go to accountability.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

I mean, David French, I think there's a morality piece that Republicans have always injected into politics with many, in many instances, cynical objectives that the Democrats could deploy if they found the right practitioners to do so. I mean, it is immoral that the Trump family is stuffing. I mean, stuffing isn't even the right filling airplanes with cash on their grip. But there is an earnestness that like Democrats want to stick to the things that people are most upset about, which is true and probably the right political move. But what do you make of the fact that all these things are colliding in the same moment?

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

Well, it's the perfect storm right now that the Democrats may be able to take advantage of in November. So it's just a fact that voters are more tolerant of corruption when they feel comfortable financially. So they're going to be less interested in social reform if they're feeling comfortable with their financial situation. We've seen this throughout American history. When voters feel good economically, they're a lot more permissive towards their politicians. When they don't feel good economically, they get a lot more strict and a lot more alarmed at their politicians behavior. And so here's what Trump is doing. He's running the most corrupt administration I've ever seen in my entire life. At the same time that he's engaging in economic behaviors that are hurting Americans, whether it's the tariff war that is just a complete own goal. He didn't have to start this. He started it because he wanted to start this. And then you move on to the Iran war and the effects of the closure of the Straight Hormuz. Again, completely voluntary. Iran did not attack us. This was not a response to an attack from Iran. This was a war of choice. And so he's got two things that he's done, at least two things that are making his life worse politically and making Americans lives worse economically. And they're going to be more concerned about corruption when their own finances are hurting. 55% of Americans in a recent poll were negative about their own finances. They're going to be less excited to hear that Trump and his family are making off with billions of dollars in graft and corruption during the second term. So these things go hand in hand. When voters feel financially insecure, the last thing that they want to see is their politicians getting rich.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Yeah. It also is amazing how nine years ago he ran as a rich guy and now he is governing as a grifter. Like, not even trying to hide it when the whole the whole sort of sales pitch was, I'm already so rich. I'm just going to do this for you. Take one for the team. And now he can't steal or take planes and gifts fast enough. Admiral John Kirby, thank you for your wisdom and your experience and starting us off with that. Everyone else sticks around when we come back. It's been a busy week for Marco Rubio. He's been trying desperately to keep up with and catch up with the erratic whims and utterances and posts of his boss, Donald Trump, from the pressroom podium to a private meeting at the Vatican. We'll look at just how out of step the two of them find themselves, at least publicly. Plus, gas prices have hit another staggering high as more Americans say they're feeling the strain from the jump. But a top economic adviser for Donald Trump feels it's a win and appears giddy about Americans taking on credit card debt to pay for it all. We'll show you what we're talking about. And later in the broadcast, the conservative assault on democracy seems to be picking up speed by the hour. The flashing red warning lights are going off in a number of states. States today it was Tennessee earlier today. Mark Elias will join us on the dizzying race to gerrymander and how Democrats are getting in on the contest as well. All those stories and much more when Deadly White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.

[Chris Hayes]

Artificial intelligence is moving very, very fast and it's raising new questions just about every day about what it is, what it is. When all is said and done, what is The End Game. I'm Chris Hayes, and as part of my podcast, why Is this Happening? I'm speaking with leading experts each week to help ground that conversation.

[Chris Hayes (continuation)]

We're right now in a situation where it's very difficult to understand what is real and what's not real.

[Chris Hayes]

Why Is this Happening? The AI Endgame, a special miniseries from Ms. Now. Start listening today, wherever you get your podcasts.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Marco Rubio's had a busy week, but today he's on cleanup duty. He's at the Vatican, where he met with Pope Leo xiv, the first American pope, for more than two hours. Their private meeting comes amid unprecedented public attacks from Donald Trump against Pope Leo, who has been outspoken about the church's opposition to war. Whatever lame excuse Rubio came up with for Trump's bizarre obsession with attacking the Pope over and over and over again is just the latest humiliation for the Secretary of state forced to navigate Trump's daily reversals on the status of the war with Iran. Here's what the New York Times says about Trump's latest rhetorical shift and how it underscores, quote, how treacherous it is to speak for a president who cultivates a bombastic and erratic style, one that Trump insists keeps his adversaries off balance. Quote. In this case, however, he appeared to be throwing off balance his own secretary of state, who also serves as the president's national security adviser. We're back with David and Congressman Hines. I mean, David, I don't know what kind of pumping up you have to do of Donald Trump to think that these are rhetorical shifts. I've covered him for nine years. These are just blurts of instinct and impulse and I think some fear coming out on a social media platform. What do you think?

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

Well, you know, I think he's used to intimidating and blustering his way through life. And for years and years and years politically in the United States, he was able to get away with that quite a bit because in the Republican Party, he didn't have any real opposition. He could intimidate and bluster his way through domestic American politics to a, to a degree that, quite frankly, has surprised me over these last 10 years. Like, you just bully your way through politics. He's now learning that you just can't bully your way through all of life, that people do resist and that people do have actual convictions and beliefs. Like Pope Leo. You're not going to be able to bully the pope out of his stance regarding the pope is going to push towards peace. That's what he's going to do. You're not going to be able to bully him out of that. I don't think there's any amount of cleanup that Marco Rubio can do that will change the Pope's stance on this war. I mean, the best he can possibly do, I would say, is use whatever influence he has with Trump to dial back the temperature. Because the one thing we know for sure is that this Pope is not going to stop talking about peace. That is what he is going to do. And it's obvious. It is flummox to Trump. It is obvious that he is now encountering people. He is now encountering institutions that are not yielding to him internationally. They're not doing everything he asks. And it's very clear that when that happens, he doesn't have a plan B. His plan B is just to say, go back to plan A, except louder and more angry. And that's just not going to work.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

And what about Marco Rubio? I mean, I, I think you were on covering the, the Rubio press conference with our colleagues. I watched with a little bit of amusement that he seemed to really rise to the two roles he has. He seemed to really relish being behind the podium as a very crowded, it's a smallish space, but the briefing room was packed. And I was just telling the Congressman story. I was at home and I saw the New York Times headline flash that Trump had reversed himself on the very policy that Rubio had been out there with a puffed up chest and some well, rehearsed lines in front of a bathroom mirror or something. He'd made a fool of him like 110 minutes later. What do you make of Marco Rubio?

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

Yeah, this is the classic calculation that Republicans have been making for 10 years. In all likelihood, he's thinking to himself, a, he's very frustrated that he was just contradicted, but B, he's probably congratulating himself on navigating the Trump administration well enough to be in the positions of power he's in, to influence power in the way that he can. This is the bargain Republicans have been making for 10 years. And when you talk to Republicans, they'll say again and again, well, you should be glad I'm there, because if I'm not going to be there, somebody worse will be. And this is the, the way they have accommodated themselves to Trump for a very long time. But it's at such a high price. And part of the price is your dignity. Part of the price is that you're going to be humiliated by your own boss again and again and Again, but here's what's interesting in this moment, where Trump is acting erratically, where he's contradicting his subordinates, and he's. He's lurching from policy to policy. In a weird way amongst Republicans, Rubio's star is rising. They see him as the most eloquent defender of the administration, and J.D. vance's star is falling. They. They do not see him as being a similar ambassador for Trump. So it's a very strange situation. On the one hand, Rubio is being contradicted by his boss all the time. On the other hand, his star keeps rising. It's a. It's a very strange place to be.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

I mean, MAGA is a strange tent to be under in the first place. You know, the. We didn't talk about the. Probably the most important party in this, and that's Iran. I mean, Trump is erratic in a way that we've just started covering. The frequency of the overnight posting, the lack of sleep he's obviously getting, the lack of cohesion between his top national security advisor and the president. The Iranians see all this, too. I mean, what is sort of the intelligence suggests the Iranians are thinking about America right now?

[David French]

Well, you know, I'll tell you, don't need the intelligence to inform you on this matter. Right.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Watch their Lego videos.

[David French]

Well, you know, look, the Iranians, as hideous as their regime is, these people have been negotiating and outwitting people in negotiations for 4,000 years. And, you know, the idea that they don't look at the fact that Donald Trump changes his rationale and his objectives, and he's announcing that peace is at hand. But by the way, I'm about to start bombing again. The Iranians look at that and say, we are now in charge because we have a consistent strategy of keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, which is creating immense pain in Asia. And by the way, for Americans, you think the Iranians don't understand what $50 a gallon gas increase means to Americans? They understand that and so don't believe for one second the way the stock market believes that. Oh, just because Donald Trump announces that the war is over, the market rises 600. Baloney. The Iranians are in charge right now because they control the Strait of Hormuz and United States gas prices and world food prices. So we are in for a long haul, and Donald Trump is gonna bluster. And the more he blusters and backs down and changes his mind and contradicts himself, you know, you're worried about him contradicting his secretary of state. The man contradicts himself twice a day. The Iranians see we are now in charge.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

You made a side comment, but I'm just curious, why do you think the markets and CPAC are the only two institutions that believe everything Trump says?

[David French]

You know, it's mind boggling to me and it's a confident, you know, oil prices go up, the market goes down the market, you know, and vice versa. Right. And that's what, that is what is driving Donald Trump right now. Eventually, he's taking a very bad deal because somehow, even though he doesn't give a damn about Republicans in the Congress, he only cares about his own political standing. At some point, he's gonna look at his polling numbers and say, holy smokes, I need to bring gas prices down. And that's when the Iranians say, that's fine, you're taking this deal. And Donald Trump says, yes, and we'll get nothing.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

We'll be in a worse position at this rate than before it started. Congressman, it's great to have you at the table. Thank you so much for starting us off. David sticks around a little bit longer. After a break, there's new reporting on Donald Trump's fuel crisis that we've been discussing. And the political crisis party may be about to pay for it. We'll bring you that story next.

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[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Americans are getting crushed by the economic impact from the war with Iran, and they know it. Every poll bears that out. Gas prices today hit another new high at $4.56 a gallon. That's according to AAA, and that is up nearly 30 cents in just a week. Brand new polling shows that over 8 in 10Americans say those soaring prices at the pump are putting a strain on their finances. But here's how the Trump administration is talking about it and attempting to spin those very real higher prices and the very real anxiety people feel about it as a good thing. And the latest example of how out of touch they are.

[Senator Mark Kelly]

The consumer is really, really firing on all cylinders. Just like the corporate sector you're seeing in the earnings. And they're doing that because they have so much more money in their pockets. Credit card spending is through the roof. They're spending more on gasoline, but they're spending more on everything else, too.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

I missed the chapter where credit card spending being through the roof is a good economic Indicator. Privately, though, Trump's advisors are not saying that stuff. They're panicking. According to reporting in the Wall Street Journal, they are, quote, increasingly worried that Republicans will pay a political price for the rising fuel costs, according to people familiar with that matter. Many of those advisers are eager to end the war in hopes that prices will begin moderating before November's midterm elections. As for whether there is any relief in sight, the Washington Post reports this, quote, a confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the US Naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship. That's according to four people familiar with the document. Joining our coverage, executive editor and New York bureau chief of the Economist, Charlotte Howard, David French is still with us. We'll deal with the economic realities and then the political realities. The price of gas and the intelligence assessment of what Iran's pressure points are are pretty daunting.

[Chris Hayes (continuation)]

Yeah, I think one of the things that intelligence experts have known from the start of this war is that Iran would really be able to dig in. Normally, if you have a democratic government, of course, you might be more responsive to the pain imposed on your population. But this is existential for Iran, and it's not a democracy. And they're really keen. They have this power over the Strait of Hormuz. They're really keen to retain it. And I think that now we're seeing in the United States a test of the resilience of Donald Trump's resolve, how willing he is to ignore the polls, ignore the discontent within the American people and also members of his party who are looking down the calendar this November election, which is looming. And so you have this mismatch, I think, in the appetite among Iranians to weather this pain and the real political pressures at home. I think there's a question we can talk about how much Donald Trump cares about the midterms, which is separate, but the pressure is real.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Let me just ask you quickly about his advisor's economic roundup there.

[Chris Hayes (continuation)]

So there's some truth there. It's not totally made up. Americans do feel the benefits from the tax cuts that the Republicans helped push through, but that is largely being negated by the higher prices that you pay at the pump. He's correct that corporate earnings are very healthy, as my colleague Mike Bird has written about in the Economist, earnings not just now, but looking through the end of the year, analysts expect them to be pretty robust. And I think if you dive into that divergence, where the stock market is doing pretty well, which is what higher income Americans care about. But gas prices are really imposing costs on many lower and middle income Americans. You get a sense of the divergent sentiment that you see showing up in larger surveys. Higher income Americans feeling more confident. Lower income Americans much more gloomy about their prospects.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Well, and so let's lay voters into this conversation. Corporations, obviously, who was it, Mitt Romney? That said they're people, they're not people. People work at corporations. But people by and large feel pretty crummy about their personal economic status. And importantly, the very people that propel Donald Trump to a second term seem to feel the worst about it. David, how do you see that playing out?

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

Well, I mean, the analysis regarding the gas prices is just spot on. This is a subject that wealthy American Americans are not price sensitive on gas. It's a rounding error in their budget. But if you're working class Americans, you're very price sensitive about all things. And gas is often the most prominent thing. Not just because you have to go to work every day, take kids to school every day, but also because you see the price on billboards all around you all the time. You cannot hide gas inflation. It is something that just flashes in front of your face. And I think on the economy, what's very important for people to understand is the American economy and the economy. The Economist has been on this beat for a long time. The American economy is a very strong, fundamental economy. In many ways, that's been the envy of the world. But Trump is engaged in actions that are artificially suppressing economic growth and are artificially goosing prices. Tariffs, for example, the war in Iran, for example. Again, these are things the Trump administration didn't have to do, but it chose to do. And if you'd had a different administration that just took the Hippocratic oath approach to the economy first, do no harm, you would see a lot better economic situation for Americans. But Trump has intervened into the economy in ways that are hurting everyday Americans, especially working class Americans. The very people who put him in the Oval Office.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Yeah. And I think just politically, the thing about gas prices, and I remember this from being on the trail with politicians I work for, is that a lot of people can't decide how far they drive. Of all the things in their budget, they can plus or minus what they have to spend on gas to get to work, to get their kids to school usually isn't something that they have a lot of control over. People that live farther away to pay less for housing cannot control how far they have to drive to get to work or to get family members around. So it is something that people feel a lot of anger about because they can't control it. We'll talk more about that, how voters are dealing with all this. You have to sneak in a quick break. We'll also show you how the gas prices are tripping up. Republican lawmakers in terms of how they talk about all this. Stay with us.

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

I mean, I don't like to brag

[David French]

about all the expensive, expensive places I've

[John Kirby]

been, but earlier today I went to the gas station.

[Senator Mark Kelly]

What should Congress do about gas prices at 411 national average?

[John Kirby]

Well, there's nothing we can do in my state. The price of gas is so high that it would be cheaper to buy

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

cocaine and just run everywhere.

[John Kirby]

Gasoline and diesel fuel and oil is

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

a product of the conflict in Iran.

[Senator Mark Kelly]

How do you square that patience with impatience with gas prices under Biden when it at times is 3, 33, 40?

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

I don't have to square anything with you.

[John Kirby]

Okay.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

He's not very interesting, but he is indicative of the Republicans not even pretending to care that the Trump economy has rendered them all hypocrites and liars. What they said applied to Biden, they won't even say applies to Donald Trump. And I guess they're hoping that he'll now gerrymander them into safety.

[Chris Hayes (continuation)]

You know, the fact that politicians are hypocrites, I think doesn't faze you. But I will say that. But there is a real challenge that you see Republicans grappling with in real time, which is that they are powerless. I mean, you could, I guess, try to have a range of pretty extreme measures. Let's say that America wanted to change its policy and stop exporting any energy abroad. There was a restriction on American energy exports until 2015, which actually under Obama changed much to the delight of the oil industry. In April, America was exporting about 14% of the world's entire oil exports, a really large number. So that's an example of a pretty dramatic intervention that may or may not have a huge immediate impact on prices. But I raise that as a technical example to point out that the options are very, very limited here. And they also come in the context of a lot of voter angst around the building of data centers and concern of what that does to electricity prices. And so these are very noticeable costs for the American consumer. And as we were discussing, discussing before, it's not surprising that you see that show up in discontent in the polls.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

There's a tone problem, too. I mean, I know that Bill Clinton is still sort of a Republican boogeyman. But there's no effort among Republicans to even attempt to feel people's pain. They're just denying it exists. And that has, in the history of political time, never worked. I mean, they pay no price by just empathizing with their constituents. Why do you think they can't do that? Are they that afraid of Donald Trump?

[New York Times Opinion Columnist David French (continuation)]

DAVID well, it's more than that. They're that afraid of their primary voters. I think it's almost difficult to understand how much the Republican Party is wholly owned not just by Donald Trump, by its but by also by its primary voters. And that exchange you saw there that was just broadcast is a perfect example, because the primary voter wants to see the media disrespected. They don't want to see an argument made. They want to see the media disrespected. So there you have a senator saying, I don't have to answer to you, I don't have to square with you, right? That's a base primary voter. They love that. They are thrilled about that. And I've never seen a presidential administration or an entire political party warp away from not just Democrats. I mean, you would expect that, but from independence as well, to serve in total one community, and that is the most hardcore Republican base. That's the way they orient themselves. There's a lot of reasons why they do that. We just saw the results of the Indiana state Senate primaries earlier this week where the the Republican senators who defied Trump, almost all of them lost their jobs. So these guys are focused like a laser on one segment of the American population. They are not focused on everybody else. And that is something that is keeping their jobs for now as they go through their primary go through the primary process. But I think for dozens of them, at least in the House, it's probably going to cost them their jobs in November, barring some big changes in the political dynamic. But that's how the Republican Party is now. It lives, eats, breathes, exists for the primary voter.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

You can almost see in like 10 years, they're all going to be on book tour writing about how oh, and I knew that the great gas crisis of 2026 was a disaster and a calamity for my constituents. I just couldn't say anything because of what you articulated. It is a phenomenon. David Friend, Charlotte Howard, thank you for spending time with us today. When we come back, the Atlantic has responded to Kash Patel. Fill you in after a short break. The staff at the Atlantic and its editor in chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, are making clear that they will not back down. Amid the reporting that the FBI is investigating the Atlantic, Sarah Fitzpatrick, following her reporting on Cash Patel, Goldberg wrote this to readers of the Atlantic today. Quote, if Patel thought that he could intimidate the Atlantic by suing us, he was very, very wrong. Just yesterday, hours after msnow reported that Fitzpatrick is the focus of a criminal leak investigation launched by the FBI, we posted her latest story on Patel. In it, she reported that it is not unusual for Kash Patel to travel with a supply of personalized branded bourbon. Being the thorough, deeply reported magazine that we are, we obtained one such bottle. This isn't our first rodeo. We live in a period in which some media organizations buckle under government pressure. I promise you that we will never give in. If a story is true, we will publish it and we will defend the Atlantic and its staff vigorously. We will not be intimidated by illegitimate investigations or other acts of politically motivated retaliation. We will continue to cover the FBI professionally, fairly and thoroughly, and we will continue to practice journalism in the public interest. We will continue to follow this story closely. After a break, Tennessee residents came out to oppose the GOP's new maps, eliminating the state's only majority black district. We'll talk about what's next in the fight to protect and preserve our democracy. The next hour of Deadline White House starts after a very short break.

[MSNBC Promo Announcer]

Simone Sanders Townsend and I have known each other for more than a decade, tussling over politics and policy when she worked in the White House, and I reported on it.

[Chris Hayes (continuation)]

And now we're friends and colleagues and on our podcast, Clock it, we are positioning ourselves at the intersection of culture and politics.

[MSNBC Promo Announcer]

Clock it is where we talk about what we see and hear in the news. So you can start to clock it, too. Clock it with Simone and Eugene. All episodes available now.

[MSNBC Host or Anchor]

Sam.