“The facts and the politics all point in one direction”

Summary

Deadline: White House – Episode Summary: “The facts and the politics all point in one direction” Release Date: August 12, 2025

In this compelling episode of Deadline: White House, host Nicolle Wallace delves deep into the current American political landscape, examining the growing discontent among constituents towards the Republican Party, the strategic positioning of the Democratic Party ahead of the midterm elections, and the escalating impact of the Epstein scandal on Republican credibility. The episode features insightful analysis from political analysts Matt Dowd and John Heilemann, alongside contributions from Cecilia and Claire McCaskill.

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1. Confrontation at Doug LaMalfa’s Town Hall [01:30 – 06:38]

The episode opens with a recount of a heated town hall meeting held by Republican Congressman Doug LaMalfa in Chico, California. Despite winning the 2024 election with 65% of the vote, LaMalfa faced significant backlash from approximately 650 constituents who voiced their anger over Medicaid cuts included in the so-called “big beautiful bill.”

Cecilia, a constituent, poignantly states at [02:38]:

"How do you justify voting YES on the big ugly bill knowing that 43% of their constituents receive Medicaid and other government assistance... We vote and we will hold you accountable."

Wallace highlights the stark contrast between LaMalfa’s electoral success and the palpable frustration among his constituents, emphasizing that the crowd’s discontent reflects a broader trend of accountability being a critical aspect of American democracy.

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2. Republican Unpopularity and Economic Decline [06:38 – 16:39]

Matt Dowd provides a comprehensive analysis of the Republicans' declining approval ratings, drawing parallels to the 2018 midterms when Democratic enthusiasm surged amidst Republican struggles. He notes that Donald Trump’s approval rating related to the economy has plummeted from a +8 in 2018 to -13 in the current climate, with independent voters showing a staggering -30 perception of Trump’s economic handling.

At [06:38], Dowd states:

"When you combine what they tell us about in conjunction with the data, it shows the Democrats enthusiasm is up, it shows Republicans enthusiasm is down."

He argues that the current scenario could be more detrimental to Republicans than previous years, as the economic perception of Trump has significantly worsened.

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3. Strategic Recommendations for Democrats [09:04 – 12:42]

Addressing the Democratic Party's challenges, Cecilia emphasizes the importance of targeting independent voters and leveraging the support of veterans. She suggests that focusing on the economy and defending veterans can sway the growing number of independents disillusioned with both major parties.

Cecilia remarks at [10:59]:

"The Democratic Party needs to laser focus on those independent voters and the economy is the way to do it."

Matt Dowd concurs, advising Democrats to “hurry up and catch up to where your voters are” and to develop a concise and compelling narrative that not only criticizes Trump but also clearly defines Democratic values and policies.

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4. The Epstein Scandal and Republican Turmoil [20:24 – 31:35]

The discussion pivots to the Epstein scandal, highlighting its detrimental impact on the Republican Party. John Heilemann critiques the inconsistent narrative within Trump's circle regarding the Epstein files, noting the confusion and lack of coherent strategy in addressing the allegations.

At [21:37], Heilemann observes:

"Trump has been really all over the place on this... it's like he's doing the cha cha one minute and he's doing the waltz the next minute."

Matt Dowd underscores the scandal’s “stickiness” and its potential to unravel Republican credibility further, pointing out that independent voters are increasingly skeptical of Trump’s narratives. He warns that if the Epstein issues are fully exposed, they could significantly weaken Trump's political standing.

Furthermore, Dowd highlights the public’s distrust, citing a UMass poll where 81% of Americans believe Trump is hiding something, exacerbating the party's woes.

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5. Voter Sentiment and Democratic Despair [31:35 – 43:11]

John Heilemann sheds light on the Democratic Party’s plummeting favorability, referencing a CNBC poll showing Democrats with a -32% net favorability rating, the lowest since 1996. He expresses concern over the Democrats’ inability to capitalize on Republican missteps, despite their own internal challenges.

At [33:00], Heilemann states:

"The Democratic Party is doing something that's very hard to do, which is remain, which is be historically unpopular in the face of the most historically unpopular Republican president."

Matt Dowd emphasizes the urgency for Democrats to “get their shit together”, advocating for a stronger alignment with voter priorities and enhanced narrative consistency to regain lost ground.

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6. Looking Ahead: Supreme Court and Voting Rights [43:04 – 45:39]

As the episode nears its conclusion, Wallace briefly touches upon the looming battles over voting rights and redistricting, setting the stage for future discussions. She teases an upcoming segment featuring Marc Elias and Melissa Murray on the Supreme Court's role in shaping electoral laws.

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Notable Quotes:

• Cecilia at [02:38]:

  "We vote and we will hold you accountable."

• Matt Dowd at [06:38]:

  "The Democrats enthusiasm is up, it shows Republicans enthusiasm is down."

• John Heilemann at [21:37]:

  "It's like he's doing the cha cha one minute and he's doing the waltz the next minute."

• Matt Dowd at [09:34]:

  "Democrats need to hurry up and catch up to where your voters are."

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Conclusion

In “The facts and the politics all point in one direction,” Nicolle Wallace and her panel provide a sobering analysis of the current political turmoil facing the Republican Party, exacerbated by internal scandals and dwindling public support. Concurrently, they outline the Democratic Party's strategic imperatives to harness voter discontent and regain momentum ahead of the midterm elections. This episode underscores a pivotal moment in American politics, where accountability and strategic realignment could reshape the electoral landscape.

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For those who missed this episode, stay tuned to Deadline: White House for ongoing coverage and in-depth analysis of the ever-evolving political arena.

Transcript

[Riley]

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[Nicole Wallace]

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[John Heilemann]

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[Cecilia]

You and your party are actively hurting people with disabilities, people of color, queer folks, immigrants, veterans, people who are hungry, people without shelter, children experiencing poverty. That's just a partial list. You will deny all of this. We know the truth.

[Nicole Wallace]

Yes, we see. We know what you've done.

[Cecilia]

We vote and we will hold you accountable.

[Nicole Wallace]

Hi again everyone. It's five o' clock in the East. Accountability, a critical aspect of American democracy. We saw it on full display last night at another town hall held by another Republican congressman who was confronted by a raucous group of constituents and voters facing their frustration, saying their quote, we see you. About 650 constituents in Chico, California, according to the news outlet Cal Matters, showed up to the town hall meeting of Republican Congressman Doug LaMalfa. He is from California's 1st congressional district and won in 2024 with 65% of the vote. But that majority approval was not at all visible anywhere last night as the crowd refused to shy away from erring feelings of anger and frustration and profound disagreement. Especially when it came to the Medicaid cuts of the so called big beautiful bill.

[Cecilia]

My name is Cecilia, I'm constituent from Chico. I've called your office every day so it's a big beautiful bill. Haven't gotten a response. Of course you danced around this question.

[Nicole Wallace]

A few times today, so I'm going.

[Cecilia]

To be a little bit more specific. How do you justify voting YES on the big ugly bill knowing that 43% of their constituents, the highest of any California congressional district, receive Medicaid and other government assistance. I would also like to know how you plan to make up for the hospital's deficit because of the lack of payment so the burden doesn't land on the average taxpayer.

[Nicole Wallace]

Attendees did not like when that congressman blamed the prior administration, the Biden administration, over the issue of executive overreach. Watch that.

[Cecilia]

I am a retired Air Force veteran, disabled. My question, the context is very much like that woman was just talking about in that if I as a military person had done an iota of what Donald Trump has done against the Constitution of the United States, I would have been court martialed. So my question to you is, what are you doing to maintain that separation of power between the Supreme Court, Congress and the White House?

[Matt Dowd]

That's a good and important question.

[Nicole Wallace]

We in the US House and the.

[Matt Dowd]

Senate need to assert our portion of that triad. And you know, much power is there invested in the executive branch and we've seen that grow over the years and years with the executive orders. The Biden era set, for example.

[Nicole Wallace]

Not buying it when it comes to the Democratic Party. It got a boost today when it comes to its 2026 Senate aspirations. Former Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio announced that he will throw his hat into the ring to take on incumbent Republican John Husted. As Axios reports, quot Sheriff Brown, who served three terms in the Senate, is the party's best shot at flipping a critical seat in increasingly red Ohio. It comes as Donald Trump's approval rating is plunging and belief that the country is not headed in the right direction. Democrats do have an opportunity to seize. The question now is whether they can get the momentum and energy and sustained storytelling behind them. But as we heard in Northern California last night, all constituents want is to be heard. Last time I was here was eight years ago.

[Cecilia]

And you know, if you met with us more often, we might not have to yell out our.

[Nicole Wallace]

Tectonic shifts potentially in the political landscape in the United States of America. Ahead of the midterms is where we begin this hour with some of our most favorite experts and friends. Matt Dowd is here, MSNBC senior political analyst. Lucky for us, Claire and John have stuck around. They are here as well. Matt Dowd, where do you think the country is right now? And let's just for the purposes of this discussion, put aside a right left continuum. But where do you think my first job as a reporter was in that area? This is a ruby red part of California, which sounds so weird to people who aren't from California, but it's its center, it's sort of i5 corridor is deeply red. And to hear this discontent with someone who won in a plus, you know, 60 county where 65% of its residents voted for Donald Trump is stunning. And to hear them so fluent in the policies that Republicans are both voting for and acquiescing to really is so revealing about this moment. Your thoughts?

[Matt Dowd]

Yeah, I mean, I think of town halls like anecdotes. And so a town hall by itself or a couple of town halls by themselves to me would be like they'll send a signal. But are they really telling us a lot? But when you combine an anecdote with data, that's when the problem develops. This same thing reminds me of what happened to the Democrats in 2010, where there was a bunch of people showed up at town halls and they expressed their displeasure with Obama and everything else that was going on. And the Democrats, many Democrats said, well, no, these people are self select. They're just showing up. They're not really the swing voters. And then the data showed otherwise. And then 2020, 2010 happened in the course of this. And I think I like to look at this election and this moment in comparison to what happened in 2018, which was a huge Democratic year in 2018, in Donald Trump's first midterm in his first reelection. And the numbers, comparable numbers are worse today for Donald Trump and the Republican than they were in 2018. Donald Trump's approval rating is worse. Donald Trump's advocacy for a bill that has a negative 20, the big beautiful bill, or whatever he calls it, is a much worse anchor to be held onto. But the most significant number that I've noticed and why this may be actually worse for the Republicans this time than 2018, is one thing that held up Republicans in 2018 and in 2020 and in 2024 was this idea, though. No matter how people personally felt about Donald Trump, you know, they thought he was a rogue, they thought he was a villain. They didn't like him personally, they didn't trust him, but they thought he was good on the economy. They assumed Donald Trump, because, quote, he was a businessman, was good on the economy. In 2018, on election day, Donald Trump had a plus 8 point advantage on handling the economy. Today he's minus 13. That's 21 points difference between when he lost the bad midterms into where he is on the economy. And among independent voters, he's got a negative 30 on the economy. On people's perception of his ability to handle the economy. So on their own, I think the town halls would tell us something. But when you combine what they tell us about in conjunction with the data, it shows the Democrats enthusiasm is up, it shows Republicans enthusiasm is down. And I know we'll talk about Epstein, and I think that has large part to do with it. And all of the numbers are as bad or worse than they were for the Republicans in 2018.

[Nicole Wallace]

Matt Dowd, if you were to give advice to Democrats, it's really hard to read in the polls what it is that makes Democratic voters mad at Democratic leaders. I mean, they're on the right side of all these issues, but it's this gut thing that they don't see them fighting enough is what the polls show. How do you make that reality or how do you, how would you advise Democratic politicians to act or to conduct themselves or what choices they should make in this moment?

[Matt Dowd]

Well, as happens often in our history, the voters are ahead of political parties and it sometimes takes a little while for the leadership and the politicians to catch up to the voters. I think Democrats have begun to catch up to where voters are and the threat Democrats, the Democratic voters feel that the Republicans and Donald Trump are to not only the country and the Constitution, but actually their life, their daily lives and how they live, whether it's health care or, you know, loss of freedoms and all of those, those things. And so I would just say Democrats, hurry up and catch up to where your voters are. And I think you listed off three things about, you know, will the Democrats ride momentum and the energy. And then you said the storytelling. They need to get a handle on the storytelling. I think for the moment, letting the Epstein thing roll out and piling on and all that talking about the economy is fine, but some by some time of the first quarter of next year, they need to have a concise story to tell that's not only Donald Trump's a threat and what he's doing is wrong, but here's who we are and they need to tell that story in a consistent, clear way. It can wait until the first quarter, but I'd say hurry up and catch up to the voters and have the same energy that the voters have and you adopt that same energy.

[Nicole Wallace]

Claire McCaskill, how are Democrats doing in your view on that mission?

[Cecilia]

Well, I think, I think Matthew's right. I think they have not caught up with the voters yet, but I think they're getting there. And this is very common. I know that my fellow panelists will agree that in the aftermath of Barack Obama winning a lot of the same angst was felt on the Republican side. We don't have a leader. We're not fighting hard enough. What happened? How did this guy get elected? This is the end of the Republican Party. The demographics are against us. Leaders will emerge and they will do better. And, and Matthew's right about the story. But I want to drill down on one thing that he mentioned about the data, and that is the independent voter. Keep in mind the number of people who call themselves independent is growing and growing and growing because people are very disaffected with both parties. The Democratic Party needs to laser focus on those independent voters and the economy is the way to do it. The other way to do it is with veterans. I noticed the veterans that were at this guy's town hall last night. You can't say we cut the suicide hotline because of illegal immigrants. For military veterans, that doesn't work. You can't blame the immigrants for reducing the services to Americans. Veterans. The veteran community has a big role to play here. They're particularly powerful with independent voters. So the economy and what everything is going to cost next year, along with telling a story about what they've done in terms of debasing our military and not respecting our veterans, that's how you can move those independent voters, and that's what the Democratic Party needs to spend some time thinking about.

[Nicole Wallace]

Howman, what are your thoughts on all this?

[John Heilemann]

Well, I never like to get into any kind of a scrap with Matthew or with Claire for that matter. So I'm going to avoid. So I'm going to avoid getting a scrap. Claire I never get a scrap with because she'll just rip me apart. Matthew, I feel a little more comfortable taking you on, but I'll just go to Matthew's point about data. And this relates. I agree with you guys. The Trump administration is a mess and their numbers are terrible and the focus groups are terrible. The town hall meetings are terrible. The anecdotal and the empirical all suggest Donald Trump and the Republican Party are, are, have taken a huge beating. And it's not surprising given how unpopular all the things they've done have been. You knew these things were unpopular. You knew that cutting Medicaid was going to be unpopular. You knew all these things. They did them anyway. Okay, here's the thing. I just don't want to be euphemistic about the situation with the Democratic Party right now because our colleagues over at CNBC commissioned a poll last week which showed the Democratic net favorability rating to be the lowest it's been since at least 1996. I think that's as far back as their poll went. The poll had them at a -32% net, 32 so positive, 24 negative, 56. When a party is seeing numbers that bad, in contrast to a party that is also seeing numbers as bad as Trump's numbers have become and the Republican Party's numbers have become, that is a big warning sign for the Democratic Party. And, and I agree with Claire and Matthew that, that, that the party is doing a little better in terms of its focus and its energy and its discipline on certain messaging things. But I don't hear a lot of people that just in my daily life who are Democrats who come up to me and say, man, Democratic Party's up firing all cylinders, man. They're kicking ass out there. Trump is terrible, but we got him on the ropes. They say to me, Trump is terrible, and where are our guys? You know, where is my team? You know, the Democrats seem as hopeless to a lot of people you just meet on the street. They seem as hopeless and lost. Not evil like the Republican Party, but hopeless and lost. And there's a lot of despair out there among a lot of Democratic voters. I'm not trying to endorse that view. I see bright spots for Democrats. But the numbers tell you that the Democratic Party is doing something that's very hard to do, which is remain, which is be historically unpopular in the face of the most historically unpopular Republican president that any of us have ever seen. At a time when their numbers are cratering on the most important issues to the Republican coalition, and they have problems with their base and they have problems with independent voters. They have all kinds of problems. And Democrats so far have not figured out a way to capitalize on that and put themselves in a position. They still have time. The midterms are a year, are still more than a year away. But I wouldn't be sanguine right now. I would feel a sense of urgency if I were a Democratic Party leader about trying to get my shit together, our shit together, their shit together, whatever. Somebody's shit together.

[Nicole Wallace]

Matt Dowd. I interviewed John Lovett for my podcast today, and I gave this example, and this will. You'll remember where you were standing when this happened. George W. Bush's first debate with John Kerry. We completely fumble. I might be the only person who didn't realize how bad it was in the moment, but you knew our numbers go down 14 points.

[Matt Dowd]

Is that the royal. We fumble.

[Nicole Wallace]

So Bush's numbers go down 14 points. Kerry's go and I have the unenviable job of taking President George W. Bush. The Time and Newsweek polls, which are the first polls that came out after the debate, we're down 14, Kerry's up 11, 12 or 13. I mean, it was zero sum politics, right? One went down, the other went up. Why isn't that the dynamic anymore? That as Trump goes down, the Democrats don't seem to go up?

[Matt Dowd]

Because I mean, adding on to what John said, because both political parties are despised by a majority of Americans, the two political parties are despised. And one of the reasons why Democrats, Democrats are doing so bad is not because they have bad numbers among independent voters, just like the Republicans do, because independents are can't stand the system we're in and don't like the partisanship. And all that is because Democrats, a third of Democrats, have an unfavorable view of their own party exactly to what John was saying, which is they're not doing enough and they're not standing up enough and they don't see them out front and doing the things that they're trying to do at a town hall in the course of this. But I will remind people that elections are always choices. And it's like going to the you're thirsty and you go to the refrigerator and you have two things to choose from. It's lemonade, which you don't like, and there's spoiled sour milk, right? That's going to make you sick. You choose the lemonade even though you don't like it because you're not going to drink because the other makes you sick in this. That's the choice. It's going to be a choice that comes down to it. I think Democrats have to improve. I think they have to do better. I think they have to get back in where their voters are. I think they have to come up with a better story in all of that. I 1000% agree with that. And they should have a sense of urgency, as John said about this. But in the end, 2026 is a midterm election where the party in power is going to take the beating if things aren't going well, even if they don't like so much the alternative, which is the Democrats. And so yes, the Democrats need to do certain things and have to do have to do them. But in the end, if the choice was today, if choice was today, even disliking where the Democrats are, that the Republicans would take an immense beating if the election were held today.

[Nicole Wallace]

All right, no one's going anywhere. We'll keep pushing on this door that has been opened with our panel on what Democrats can do as voters voice their outrage over Donald Trump and his deeply unpopular anti Democratic moves. Also ahead, deadline Democracy how the Supreme Court has for two decades enabled Republicans to chip away at voting rights in America, bringing us to the red hot war over redistricting now consuming American politics. Our friends Marc Elias and Melissa Murray will be our guests a little later in the hour. Deadly White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.

[Matt Dowd]

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[Cecilia]

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[Nicole Wallace]

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[Riley]

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[Nicole Wallace]

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[Mark Elias]

Interesting the Epstein situation was not an.

[Matt Dowd]

Issue during the Biden administration. Yes, I'm hoping by the end of this August recess that we get back September the information will be available to us. So we're very interested in vaccine files. I think it's a it's a bad look to have this information continue to be suppressed. But there's also people involved in the way those files on some level need to be redacted.

[Cecilia]

So.

[Nicole Wallace]

It'S so bad and painful watching them botch questions around the Epstein files. And I and I wonder, Halman, since I've dragged you through so many of the shows trying to get at the why, why can't they? And frankly, J.D. vance said the opposite. J.D. vann said there are a bunch of things in the files, good things for US things about Democrats being at Epstein Island. I mean, how can they not send out one page of talking points and at least all say the same ludicrous thing at the same time. It's, it's a mess that's getting worse for them.

[John Heilemann]

Yeah, I think, Nicole, partly it's because partly I think it stems from the fact that normally in the MAGA sphere, it's very simple. You listen to what the dear leader says. Trump has a line. He says these things over and over and over again. The same things, whether they're recitations of grievances or, or unsubstantiated non factual readings of reality around us, either presently or speculations about the future, whatever they are. He says these things. People say what Trump said. Whatever Trump says is what they say. Problem is, Trump's been really all over the place on this. He has come up with multiple different. He's been over the long term, the medium term and the short term, Trump has had all these different explanations. And so the first thing which was there's a terrible conspiracy here. Terrible things have happened. We're gonna get to the bottom of it. Then to see here, then you're an idiot if you think there ever thought there was anything to see here to. Well, now we're back to there is something here to see, but it's Democrats who are really the ones who are doing it. Let's talk about Bill Clinton. And you know, I think if you are trying to, if your only goal as a White House staffer or as an aligned MAGA surrogate or an elected official who wanted to curry favor with Trump and wanted to follow in lockstep with him. And part of the problem is a lot of these people don't want to follow a lockstep with him on this issue. Part of their problem politically. But if you wanted to follow lockstep with him, you kind of hard to follow the dance moves. You know, it's like he's doing the cha cha one minute and he's doing the waltz the next minute. J.D. vance, I think is just confused. He doesn't know what to do. He doesn't know what to say. So he's trying to. He thinks he got the most recent memo, but hey, there's another memo that just came out 30 seconds ago. And now he's in trouble with Trump because he suggested that there actually is some real dark stuff that happened on Epstein's Island. I think it's just that the fish rots from the head down, you know, and the confusion spreads and Metastasizes from the head down. And I think Trump is the head here and man it's rotting and it's metastasizing that head.

[Nicole Wallace]

Claire, I've tried to always be cognizant that for all of Trump's garbage, Heilman Yusuf, our one swear word already so I don't get to use it. But for all of his bs, the conspiracy theories around the Epstein investigation sit right next to the opposite of a hoax. A real and heinous sprawling crime ring of the most heinous kinds of crimes. Sex crimes against children, young girls. They're not women, they're girls. They were girls and they're, they're, they haven't even all survived the period of time between an appalling non prosecution agreement in 2008 to the Europe Epstein's actually indicted I think 2019 and then his death in jail and his accomplices subsequent trial for the same sex crimes and sex trafficking. Ghislaine Maxwell, how do you as democratically and I think Ro Khanna is doing this expertly, but how do Democrats make sure to stay aligned as I think they are right now with the victims themselves in navigating this, this bizarre political moment where Trump just cannot get off his heels. He is on his heels or on his rear end at all times.

[Cecilia]

Yeah, I think the Democrats have, have, are frankly this is a mess made by the head of the rotting fish, as John said. And by the way, he not only used a cuss word, I counted, he said it I think five times. Nic. So you know, you owe me. I mean he said it and then.

[Nicole Wallace]

He said it and then he said.

[Cecilia]

It again and then he said it again. And it's a word I would use because it describes, it describes the mess they're in over here.

[John Heilemann]

Claire.

[Cecilia]

There you go, there you go. Well, I think staying aligned with the victims is really important here, allowing the victims to speak. The Trump administration and the people at DOJ and the people who are left there that supposedly care about victims of crime have never even talked to them, never consulted them, never drawn upon their information and what they know. And the victims here are very, very, very powerful. And keep in mind this smokescreen that Trump has done, a good example is them asking for the Maxwell grand jury testimony. Well, let me tell you from experience, there was a trial. There's nothing in that grand jury that didn't come out in a public trial, including compelling test testimony of victims about how this woman sexually assaulted children. So if they think they're going to play footsie with Maxwell and get away with it. I think they're underestimating the strength of these victims. I admire their courage. I admire their bravery. And I think the more Democrats can fall in line and support them and promote them and ask them to be part of this journey exposing how badly this administration has tried to protect Donald Trump and hurt them. And, and by the way, he didn't really start changing his tune until he was told how many times his name was in the file.

[Nicole Wallace]

Right? Right. I mean, Matt Dow, the facts and the politics all point in one direction for, for the Trump White House and the Republicans who are letting him brush this under the rug. But I want to come back to your point about Democrats. I mean, Ro Khanna seems to be sort of operating from his gut would appear. I don't know him, but from covering this story, but he's seen us fighting and he's actually brought a Republican along with him in Tom Massie. And I wonder if there's anything instructive or if everything playing out is just so specific to the Epstein crimes and the Epstein, the subsequent scandal created by the Trump White House.

[Matt Dowd]

Well, I mean, I agree 100% with everything Claire said, with everything John said. And I will just add two things to this and why I think Ro Khanna is on the right track and we all ought to keep the, the victim center of this scandal because it is horrendous in this. But this is one of those kind of scandals that has immense stickiness. This is like not like, oh, there was some financial thing. This has sex, this has power, this has money, this has celebrity, this has an island, this has private planes. I mean, it is a reality show made scandal that is not going to go away. And the other part of the reason it's not going to go away and I think why Donald Trump and the Republicans completely mishandle this over and over is because I think deep down they know there's a sense Donald Trump's in the middle of this some way that, that for all of Donald Trump's history, Access Hollywood, the teenage pageants, his history of friendship with Epstein, his history with his wives, sexual assault that he was convicted of sexual assault and lying about it, it all of those things exist. And then Donald Trump is sketchy on this whole topic. I think if they're Republicans, we're like, we don't know what we don't know. And there's probably a high likelihood that if we got everything out there, Donald Trump's name would be all over it. And we got a bigger problem. That's my guess is what they think. It's, I think I said this before on your show. It's as if they spun this web of conspiracy which turned out to be less conspiracy than normal, more truth to it. And they caught the wrong fly. They wanted to catch the Bill Clinton fly and they caught the fly that's sitting in the White House. And that's their problem.

[Nicole Wallace]

Let me just do what I always do. Donald Trump was found liable for sexual assault and defamation of E. Jean Carroll. He's credibly accused of sexual misconduct and sexual assault by close to two dozen women. Donald Trump is that rare person for whom the fact check doesn't really make the facts much better for him. But I want to give you one more chance, one more last word on this. Matt Dowd, how much do you think sort of the manosphere plays a role in that part of Trump's coalition? I mean, they weren't around for Russiagate. So I understand what Trump's doing. He's trying to manufacture predicate to go after and pursue Comey and Brennan and Obama over Russiagate. But the manosphere didn' bite on Russiagate. That's not something they talked about. They talked about the Epstein conspiracy before or after they talked about the Pyramid conspiracy. I mean, they're not, they're apples and oranges. And the idea that the Trump team seems to think they can swap out a Russia hoax for the Epstein hoax seems foolish. But maybe I'm missing something.

[Matt Dowd]

Well, no, you're not, because Donald Trump has, as I said, completely misread this. Completely misread this. This has way more stickiness than all the other things that he's been involved with. And every single time he reaches into his bag of tricks, brings up Obama, brings up Hillary, brings up, it doesn't work because there is a element of the Republican Party and sort of the MAGA world that believed in this conspiracy. As I said, they wanted to catch Bill Clinton or whomever else they wanted to catch. But now they realize that the deep state and the COVID up is aimed and the actions are aimed more and more and more at Donald Trump. And one of this is one that leads to an election conversation. This is why this is so problematic is that 40% of Republican voters don't think Donald Trump is handless. They still support him, but they don't think he's handled this well in this. And those are people who are less likely to vote in a midterm because they don't believe Donald Trump on this issue.

[Nicole Wallace]

Yeah, the UMass poll numbers show that 81% of all Americans think that Donald Trump is hiding something. Terrible numbers. We need to make this a regular thing and we'll spread out the swear word words. Matt Dow, Claire McCaskill, John Hellman, thank you so much for spending this time with us. When we come back, how the United States Supreme Court keeps removing guardrails that were meant to protect voting rights and American democracy, ushering in a red hot war over partisan gerrymandering and allowing Republicans to potentially dismantle what is left of the Voting Rights Act. We'll talk to our friends Marc Elias and Melissa Murray about why it matters and what can be done. After a short break.

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If only he'd fought that hard to protect his constituents from the floods for the power failures. That was Texas Governor Greg Abbott with a week left until the special session he called expires, vowing that he will stop at nothing. Nothing. He will not stop until he passes the re gerrymandered Gerry under maps. Gerrymandered maps that Donald Trump demands. Maps that will disenfranchise hundreds and thousands of his constituents, hundreds of thousands of Texans. Donald Trump has vowed to take this gerrymandering to other states in a rather desperate and transparent ploy to keep hold of the House. Amid widespread backlash against his agenda, and thanks to the United States Supreme Court, he might actually succeed. Supreme Court reporter Adam Liptak writes this in the New York Times, quote, if Republicans succeed in pulling off an aggressively partisan gerrymander of congressional districts in Texas, they will owe the Supreme Court a debt of gratitude. In the two decades Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. Has led the Supreme Court, the justices have reshaped American elections not just by letting state lawmakers like those in Texas draw voting maps warped by politics, but also by gutting the Voting Rights act of 1965 and amplifying the role of money in politics. Developments in recent weeks signal that some members of the court think there's more work to be done in removing legal guardrails governing elections. There are now signs that the court is considering striking down or severely constraining the remaining pillar of the Voting Rights Act, a towering achievement of the civil rights movement that has protected the rights of minority voters since it was enacted 60 years ago last year week. Joining our conversation is voting rights attorney, founder of Democracy docket, Mark Elias. Also joining us, NYU law professor Melissa Murray. She clerked for Justice Sonia Sotomayor while serving on the U.S. court of Appeals. Melissa, let me start with you. This is the reporting from the New York Times Supreme Court correspondent. And it is some of the most stridently terrifying analysis of where we are in the gerrymander fight. Your thoughts?

[Melissa Murray]

So I think one of the things to remember here, Nicole, is that John Roberts is continually lauded as the court's stalwart institutionalist. He is the one most concerned with the court's institutional standing, its legacy. And yet, as Adam Liptak notes in that report, John Roberts has written some of the most democracy corrosive opinions in the history of this court. He is the author of 2013 Shelby county vs. Holder, which eviscerated the pre clearance regime of the Voting Rights Act. He's the author of Russo vs Common Cause, which in 2019 said there was no role for federal courts to play in policing partisan gerrymandering. And he is the author of Trump vs United States that essentially made this president above the law, some of the most terrible decisions for democracy. And yet he is the one who we count on to be an institutionalist. This is not a court that is in a position to defend democracy. It is actually facilitating the dismantling of all of our democratic institutions, beginning with the most important right, the right to vote.

[Nicole Wallace]

Marco Lias, you are in court every day dealing with that wreckage. Your your thoughts on this moment?

[Mark Elias]

Yeah, I think a couple of things. First of all, this term is already lining up to be quite a term for on democracy and voting issues. I mean, you on August, on October 15th, you'll have the rehearing of the Louisiana case, which could lead to the gutting of the remaining parts of the Voting Rights Act Section 2. You also have a case that will be argued a week before that, which is involves whether Republicans will be able to bring claims that challenge ballot receipt deadlines, ballots that come in after election day, but are cast by the voter before election day. And there's a case in that is also going to be argued that I'll be arguing for the Democrats over a campaign finance provision that Republicans are trying to gut. So there's a lot of work left in front of this Supreme Court. But on the gerrymandering piece specifically, the thing I'd add to the equation here is also technology. Like at the same time that the Supreme Court is making it easier legally to draw Jerry Manders and more frequent gerrymanders, technology is making that process scarily dystopianly possible. I mean, you will have AI being able to draw maps that are, you know, completely voter proof. Like, they'll just be completely immune to voting trends. And when people say there's always been gerrymandering, you know, I went back and thought about the first time I was involved in map drawing in the 2000 cycle. You know, we were largely looking, looking at paper maps and census data. And sure, were we looking at which counties we thought were good for Democrats, which towns a candidate like more than the other. But it is nothing like what has what is going on now. And the Supreme Court, rather than recognizing that, seems to be burying its head in the sand and actually facilitating exactly that kind of behavior.

[Nicole Wallace]

So, Mark Elias, what is the what is how do you solve for it? I mean, what does the fight look like?

[Mark Elias]

So look, I think that the fight has three components. The first is that we cannot give the Supreme Court the out of assuming that it will do the wrong thing. What do I mean by that? We have to insist that the Supreme Court uphold Section two of the Voting Rights Act. We have to insist that it, that it reject the other Republican claims. And we have had success. Let's be clear. People thought that we were going to lose the, the North Carolina redistricting case. The, the Moore v. Harper. And I was proud that my law firm represented Becky Harper in that case. And we won. We were expected to lose the Alabama redistricting case, which was also a challenge to the Voting Rights Act. And I was proud that my law firm argued that case. And we won. And we were expected before that to lose a series of racial gerrymandering claims that I argued in the Supreme Court. And we won. So that's not to say that we're going to win these cases. It's not to say that, that everything's going to be okay. But we cannot go in with the cynic, cynics view that it is all rigged and there's no chance because that's what Donald Trump wants us to do. He wants us to lose hope and faith in the court and lose our insistence that the court do what is right. The second thing, though, I just want to add real quickly is that Democrats need to be clear out about this moment and we cannot unilaterally disarm if the fact is that if, if, if Republicans are going to play by the set of rules, we need to play by them as well.

[Nicole Wallace]

I'm smiling because it's a rare day. It's like one in every 37 appearances where you're the optimist and I'm more, I'm not. I want to press both of you on what that means, what Mark Elias just said about redrawing maps. I have to sneak in a quick break first. We'll all be right back. On the other side, this is not about crime. This is about control. This is not about public safety. This is about power. We will not stand here and allow.

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[Nicole Wallace]

I paid that for a couple reasons. One, it's happening right now. It's happening in D.C. and two, I think I've made a mistake over the last nine years of thinking there are distinct people pieces of the Trump story. It's all one story, Melissa. And I wonder how you see this sort of slow boiling of the frog that Texas redrawing their already gerrymandered maps is now largely assumed to be something that they're likely going to do. And whether Democrats in blue states respond or not, whatever they decide, they are responding and reacting to Republicans. Do you see a moment when the pro democracy side can be back on the offensive?

[Melissa Murray]

Well, I think one of the things that we have to remember here is that we can't give in to the narrative that Donald Trump has framed. I mean, we are living in an upside down world where the Trump people have made efficiency in government something that we are skeptical of. But efficiency in government is a good thing. It just can't be done this way. Maybe being thinking about public safety is a really good thing even in blue cities, but it can't be done this way by marshaling the federal government to come in and use the military to police an ordinary city. So I think we have to be clear eyed here that one of the things that's happening here is an inversion of the narrative so that he gets to shape that narrative and Democrats get to be weak on crime, weak on public order, weak on efficiency, when in fact those are things that have always been core values for us as well. We're just not doing them the way that he wants to do them. We're doing them the way the Constitution requires. I think we can't lose sight of that and we can't let Donald Trump shape the narrative, whether it's around redistricting and the fact that this isn't normal. We just had a census. We've already done redistricting. And this is no more than a power grab.

[Nicole Wallace]

So where do you come down, Melissa, on whether California should redraw their maps or Illinois or other blue states?

[Melissa Murray]

Everyone keeps going back and forth that this is really going to be a race to the bottom. And I think in ordinary times they would have said the same thing. I mean, this is a talk that we have when we talk about increasing the number of justices on the Supreme Court, that it will just be a tit for tat. But we are in a break glass moment and I think whatever we can do to arrest this outlandish and outrageous power grab that is about nothing more than keeping the House of Representative for this party and making sure that this president has a wide enough margin to be able to continue pushing an aggressive agenda and to be insulated from any of the oversight mechanisms that Congress could impose like oversight and impeachment.

[Nicole Wallace]

Melissa Mari and Marg Elias to be continued as this battle rages on. Thank you both for joining us today. As a reminder, Melissa is my guest on this week's episode of the Best People, which is now available on YouTube. Scan the QR code on your screen. I hope you'll watch and tell both of us what you think. Another break for us. We'll be right back. There's mounting international backlash over the Israeli military strike Sunday targeting a well known Al Jazeera journalist, Anas Al Sharif. He was a near constant on air presence from northern Gaza over the last 22 months of conflict. The strike ultimately killed seven people, including four other Al Jazeera journalists. Journalists and two others, according to the director of a nearby hospital. Israel had accused Al Sharif of being a Hamas leader posing as a journalist. But Al Jazeera, the Committee to Protect Journalists and a United nations expert have said the documents previously released by the IDF to back up their claim are not credible. Al Jazeera has called the strike an assassination and quote, a desperate attempt to silence the voices exposing the impending seizure and occupation of Gaza. While condemnations have poured in, including from the Committee to Protect Journalists who reported that in total 192 journalists have been killed since October 7th. We'll stay on top of this. Another break for us. We'll be right back. Thank you so much for letting us into your homes. We are grateful we quilt this city.

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