← Deadline: White House
Deadline: White House
“The first big electoral test”
01:27:27
Nicolle Wallace is joined by political experts, elected officials, and reporters on the ground to discuss the critical races happening this Election Day.
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- [00:00]
Jacob Soboroff
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- [01:07]
Nicole Wallace
Hi there everyone. Happy Election Day. And election days are they're supposed to be happy. They're usually happy. Today certainly is. It's four o'clock in New York. This is the first big electoral test of the second Trump administration, and it is upon us. It's here. Voters are lining up today from coast to coast, like at this polling location in New York City, where voters will choose their next mayor. The contests are set to serve as a bit of a barometer for the national mood nine months into an administration like none before it, one that has pursued an agenda that wide swaths of the American people say they did not sign up for, even people who voted for Donald Trump. Things like sweet sweeping tariffs to massive and brutal deportations, to the political prosecutions of Donald Trump's perceived opponents and critics. Of course, every vote, every ballot in every state is of vital importance. But those cast in the state of California today on what has been called Proposition 50, stand to be felt from coast to coast, from that state's Sugarloaf island in the west across the heartland to the easternmost lighthouse in Maine. That's because that ballot measure, if approved, would initiate a redistricting in California, a redrawing of the maps that would help Democrats make up ground that Republicans have seized. It could help Democrats flip as many as five US House seats ahead of next year's midterm elections. It is the response to what Republicans, at the behest of Donald Trump, started in Texas earlier this year. But evidently our MSNBC colleagues there on the ground in California today aren't the only ones with an eye on the polling locations. Because of the six counties nationwide to which Donald Trump's Department of Justice sent so called election monitors. Five of them are in the state of California. Go figure. Donald Trump today on social media cast doubt on the legitimacy of voting in California today, suggesting without a scrap of evidence or explanation that it's all a, quote, giant scam, that voting there is, quote, rigged. We've heard that before. He suggested that the situation was, quote, under very serious legal and criminal review. It has been and will continue to be a national story. Story about democracy, story about the use of the Department of Justice, a story about a repeat of a lie told rather famously and violently in 20, in 2020 when Donald Trump lost. It's also something that California's Governor Gavin Newsom talked about. He socialized to citizens of the country and his state ahead of election Day.
- [03:52]
Jacob Soboroff
But let's be honest. Why are we all here? We're here because Donald Trump is an historic president. He's an historically unpopular president. We're here because Trump, even Trump, understands that. He didn't expect you to show up. He didn't expect any of this to happen. He thought maybe we'd have a candlelight vigil, maybe we would hold hands, maybe, maybe we could all come together and like, you know, doing op ed in the LA Times and, you know, just say what it could have, should have done something. They never expected this. They never expected all of you. They never expected this show of unity and support and recognition. And look, it's not about Trump this election. The end of the day, it's about the future of our country.
- [04:48]
Nicole Wallace
Democracy on the ballot. The future of our country on the ballot. This election day is where we start the hour with some of our favorite reporters and friends with me at the desk, MSNBC senior contributing editor Michelle Norris is here. And Democratic strategist and professor at Columbia University, MSNBC political analyst Basil Smichel is here. Also joining us, host of the Bulwark Podcast, MSNBC political analyst Tim Miller is here. But I want to start with our colleagues out in the field for us today. MSNBC's Alicia Menendez is in Clifton, New Jersey, following that gubernatorial race there. And MSNBC senior national political correspondent Jacob Sobroff is in Sacramento, California, where the fight for democracy, as we just said, is on the ballot. Jacob, I want to start with you. And just the bookends that I want you to take me through are the announcement which sort of came in the, I won't even say dust. I think the ICE raids are ongoing and they were very much ongoing at the time. But the announcement of Prop 50 to the point where Gavin Newsom says, I have enough money. Just go out and vote. Take me through this historic campaign.
- [05:57]
Jacob Soboroff
Let me just start by saying, Nicole, happy Tuesday after the first Monday in November. This is a happy day, and I'm so happy to be here with you and join you for yet another election Day. And it's going to be an extraordinary night here as we watch play out literally. I think that it is not an exaggeration to say, we always say it's the front lines of democracy, but this is exactly what this election is about. And you know, California historically. And I should tell you where I am. I'm in Sacramento. This is the California Museum. This is one of many polling places. And let me quickly just give you a little look at what's happening in here, and then I'll talk to you. And then I want to show you outside because there are a lot of people here, whether or not people expected people to show up and vote in person, including the President of the United States. So come take a look at this real quick. This is the vote in person situation here. And people have been trickling in here at a steady state all day long. And then let me show you over here because, of course, we have vote by mail. I voted by mail today. Excuse me. You know, everybody gets a vote by mail ballot, and you have the opportunity to bring it in in person. This is the vote by mail box. So people are coming in, they're dropping off their vote by mail ballots if they don't want to vote in person. And that's the way that this process is going. There is only one question on the ballot in Los Angeles county, where I voted this morning here in Sacramento county, and that is whether or not you want to redraw the congressional district lines here in the state of California to potentially swing five districts in the direction of the Democrats in response to what Governor Gavin Newsom says is the partisan gerrymandering and redistricting happening all around this country. And California historically has been a place. Let me show you the lines while we talk. California has historically been a place where independent redistricting was important. Former governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger made it a huge priority of his tenure in inside this government. And check this out, Nicole, as we come outside. There are people here. There are a lot of people here. And Donald Trump was saying that this is going to be a vote by mail ballot. Let's actually walk the line. I'll talk to you as I go. How are you? How are you doing?
- [07:41]
Nicole Wallace
Oh, my God.
- [07:41]
Jacob Soboroff
Wait, hold on. What's up?
- [07:42]
Nicole Wallace
Hi. I'm so excited to vote. It's giving election day.
- [07:45]
Jacob Soboroff
It's giving election day.
- [07:46]
Nicole Wallace
It's giving election day.
- [07:48]
Jacob Soboroff
Prop 50 is only one. One item on the ballot. What is it? Why are you here? What's the motivating factor?
- [07:54]
Nicole Wallace
No, it's giving yes on Prop 50. It's giving hot people. Vote yes on Prop 50. And why are you voting yes on Prop 50?
- [08:01]
Jacob Soboroff
I'm on the air. I can't tell you what I'm voting about. But why are you here? Why'd you decide to come out today? I'm voting to save democracy. I'm voting for Prop 50. Vote yes. What's your name? Carlos. Carlos. Jacob. Nice to meet you. And your name?
- [08:13]
Nicole Wallace
Zen.
- [08:13]
Jacob Soboroff
Zen. Nice to meet you. Nice to meet you. So, Nicole, let's walk. I'm going to show you. But that's what this is about. This is about democracy. And so everything that was happening in California, this holy grail of California politics, which is the independent redistricting Commission, Gavin Newsom, decided that it was time to counterpunch first Texas and other states, as Donald Trump has talked about what he wants to do in this country. And when you watch the. Look at this. Check this out. I mean, they're still here. They keep going. When you watch the commercials, when you watch the advertisements that are on the air here in California, and I see them almost every day, it's not just about the redrawing, obviously, of the congressional district lines. You are seeing videos of the ICE raids, you are seeing other consequential policies of the Trump administration, because it is about ultimately the direction that this country is going to take. And if Even my son, 9 years old, has been watching. And I asked him, I said, do you understand when you see the commercials online or on YouTube or on television, he said, it's about making sure we have fair and equal representation. And that message, I think, has come through very clearly here. And so you're right. Gavin Newsom has said, I don't need any more money. We have raised so much money. We are outraised by orders of magnitude. The Republicans, where he feels like they're in a good position tonight, and that's why we're here in Sacramento, because I think ultimately we may see him tonight. I'm going to try to. To find some time with him. But look, you know, it goes on and on. Anybody else want to just say why they're online today? We're live on msnbc. What's up? How are you what's your name?
- [09:27]
Nicole Wallace
My name is Darren. It's nice to meet you. I'm here to vote.
- [09:31]
Jacob Soboroff
And why'd you come out? To vote for Prop 50. For or against?
- [09:35]
Nicole Wallace
I came to vote because I believe that our democracy is at stake right now, based on what's been happening in.
- [09:45]
Jacob Soboroff
Texas and other states. So you're watching that closely? Yeah. This is not your election. I mean, normally people don't show up for. This is a line that wraps around the block here in the downtown Sacramento area in the middle of the day.
- [09:56]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, I think a lot of us are really scared right now, and I think that's a big motivator for me and the people I know around me.
- [10:06]
Jacob Soboroff
I think that's a hard thing to share, especially impromptu on national television. So I appreciate you doing it. Tell me your name again.
- [10:11]
Nicole Wallace
Darren.
- [10:11]
Jacob Soboroff
Darren. Nice to meet you.
- [10:12]
Nicole Wallace
Nice to meet you.
- [10:13]
Jacob Soboroff
So, Nicole, we just met a couple people and I'm sure we mean a lot more, but they're out here because they believe, as we said, this is the front line of democracy in the United States of America. This evening.
- [10:24]
Nicole Wallace
I am such a SAP. Like, voters just get to me like a. Like a rom com gets to a normal person my age. Let me ask you this. Trump is posting about the election. He's posting lies about this election being rigged. That is at this point to be expected. But his lies have now a pattern of putting a couple things into motion. One, violence, and two, a lack of faith in the results. He's also dispatched election monitors. Just tell me how the governor is dealing with both.
- [11:03]
Jacob Soboroff
Well, I think that the counterpunch, the counter messages show up, and if the margin is big enough, there is no question. It's just, it's the same playbook, different day, a different election. By the way, keep going. I don't mean to stand in your way. I remember talking to you and the team at the desk on the night of the election in 2024. I was in Philadelphia at the ballot processing center, and up and until the moment it was clear that he won in Pennsylvania, he was challenging the results of the election in Pennsylvania itself and in Philadelphia itself. And so I think that that's sort of the baseline expectation right now. We read the social media messages that he put out. We know that there are folks from the Department of Justice, the Civil Rights Division, ironically, of all divisions on the ground here, looking into the elections here. But the elections have always been safe, secure, fair and accurate here. If the biggest criticism in California is that they count the votes slowly and give A long certification process. Let me remind everybody, if the results aren't in immediately tonight, that is because they do that to ensure the safety and the fairness and the accuracy of the, of the ballot counting result here. And then the Secretary of State will certify the election. But that's how it's supposed to go. So don't let anybody tell you otherwise.
- [12:11]
Nicole Wallace
Michelle, it is amazing. For all you know, we all show up every day to talk about the state of democracy and you don't always have a great sample size of how many people feel that that is resonating with them. How many people tie what they're seeing to the result of the last election and view the coming one as a potential response to it. But at least in California, online, in Sacramento at 4 o' clock in the east, that's what's on voters minds. It's important to talk about democracy because for a lot of people it's kind of fuzzy. It's no longer an abstract thing. You know, we're talking about a president who is already musing about serving a third term. So we have to celebrate election Day and understand what it is, for what it is, and understand that we might not have these kinds of elections unless we understand that democracy is a verb and that it belongs to the people and the people have to protect it. And that's what you're seeing there in California. This is not just a California proposition, as you noted. This is a. And many of these other local elections have been nationalized because this is a referendum on Donald Trump's performance in his first months in office. But it also is a test for American democracy and whether America is strong enough to fight for it. You know, Basil, we've had so many conversations about not the way forward, but the way, like off the mat right after a year ago. And two people who obviously have led to this moment, not just in California, but nationally, are two of the loudest voices supporting Prop 50. And it's the governor Gavin Newsom and former President Barack Obama. How important are they in terms of connecting? The rigging of a map in Texas that led to the Democrats in that state going to another state and at Donald Trump's request, rigging their map to a response, you know, several states over, all in service of protecting democracy.
- [14:11]
Jacob Soboroff
Yeah. As you talk about Gavin Newsom, when you played the clip of him earlier, we kind of had a look at each other because we were like, you know, starting to. There's a cadence to his voice that he didn't have before and the shaking of the shoulders and the shaking of the shoulders, that sort of call and response thing that pastors do. Not saying he is, but I'm saying he's getting like there's something that he's getting that he didn't have before that is resonating. And I think part of it comes from what happens to a lot of us, I guess, when we have our backup against the wall. This notion it's either fight or flight. And he's fighting. And that's what voters really want to see. We talked a lot last year about existential threat, and to many voters it was too abstract. But when they see law enforcement with long guns in their neighborhoods, they realize, wow, that's what it means when elections have consequences. And I think for Gavin Newsom, who now seems to be getting that cadence and that sort of language of the fight, and Barack Obama, who's often and almost always been in the fight. Right. But he's now going back on something that even his attorney general, Eric Holder, said we shouldn't be doing. Right. That we've now got to get in the middle of. And for the community organizer to now kind of go back to that root and have that language and go into community, I think in a way to say, look, we've got to start connecting these dots a little more. And it's not just about us talking about this in the abstract. He probably is the best person to be able to do it. And so the fact that he's out there is incredibly important because he speaks in paragraphs in a way that allows people to actually listen to him because he's weaving a narrative that is so compelling because he's the only one that can do it that way, that forces people to listen. And if he's the one that had the coalition before that, we want to try to find a way to get back. He's got to be the voice that helps bring it back.
- [16:10]
Nicole Wallace
Can I make one point? You know, he is important to this, but we should give him credit for the team that he put together.
- [16:15]
Jacob Soboroff
That's true.
- [16:16]
Nicole Wallace
There's a 50 person team that has been working on this, including pollsters, including comms professionals. He figured out, to answer your question, how to tell the story, how to connect the dots, that we're not just doing this because we want to change the rules. We're doing this in direct response to what happened in Texas. And so he figured out how to run a campaign in a very short period of time. And he poached from other states in some cases and other campaigns. And he put together a really impressive team, which also suggests that he's probably going to run. And whenever you hear a politician start to sound like a black Southern preacher, you know, you know that that's. They're heading in. Jacob Sobrov, I want to bring you back in. I hear that you have reporting, but I want to couch it in a question to you. Gavin Newsom went on a journey. I mean, he interviewed MAGA figures and he seems to be bearing out this new axiom in politics that it's much better to take bold swings, even if they don't all land in a Ohtani style home run, than to not be at the the plate. And he seems to have been up for every single inning of every single news cycle since last November's defeat.
- [17:32]
Jacob Soboroff
Thank you for the Dodgers reference, by the way. I would concur. I think that we saw. Tony, walk with me for one second because I just want to show that the line continues to grow. And as I do, I want to communicate to you that the governor continues to take big swings. I think there was some conversation that it was all about the social media press that he was having, but he is watching and he's engaged in a way that I've not seen him covering him in all my years here. And I believe he might be watching us live right now because I was just sent a message communicating some thoughts directly from the governor. Attached to the message that I received was a video of ice raids taking place in the Cypress park neighborhood of Los Angeles. Literally the Home Depot around the corner from where I live down in la. It happened earlier this morning. I haven't seen it. There are unconfirmed reports, but attached to that are thoughts directly from the Governor of the state of California. He said, I'm sure you have seen Los Angeles. This is sick. He's sick. Referring to the President of the United States, I assume. Our country is sick. I am shaking. That's the governor of California in the middle of the day as people are going out to vote, when he feels like he has a comfortable lead, when he doesn't need any more donations. Talking about what is on the line. And that's what I was saying to you. That's what these advertisements are showing here every single day. I think that's why people are showing up to be. You have a big smile on your face. Can I ask you a quick question? Okay. She doesn't want to talk, but. But I think, Nicole, that's what's bringing a lot of people out. Anybody want to. Anybody want to share what's bringing them out today? No, no, no. It's their private right. Nicole and I always check. But that's just another example of the governor continuing, I think, to take big swings. He doesn't have to be out here monitoring, watching, seeing what's happening, looking at the particular issues that they develop on the ground today and as it relates to this redistricting effort in California. But he is intimately engaged, whether that's part of a future presidential campaign or an effort to protect and preserve the democracy of the United States of America. He's doing it. And you make up your own mind.
- [19:18]
Nicole Wallace
Jacob Soborough, we're so glad you're there. I hope we'll be talking to you all night. I'll be on for like another 13 hours. So to be continued. Thank you for starting us off this hour.
- [19:27]
Jacob Soboroff
We'll be here, too.
- [19:29]
Nicole Wallace
When we come back, the other big races to watch today, the other electoral contest during the second Trump term. We'll go to New Jersey, where my friend and colleague Alicia Menendez is watching the competitive race for governor there, speaking to voters who are saying that they're using their votes today to send a message to Donald Trump. Plus, Virginia's Abigail Spamberger hopes to flip that state from red to blue, driven in large part by the enthusiasm for change thanks to a government shutdown which followed Doge cuts. All those policies have hurt voters in the state in the Commonwealth of Virginia hard. We'll check in on the state of that race with polls closing there in a little over two hours. Much, much more ahead when this special Election Day edition of Deadline White House continues after a very short break. Don't go anywhere.
- [20:24]
Jacob Soboroff
Did my card go through?
- [20:26]
Nicole Wallace
Oh, no.
- [20:27]
Jacob Soboroff
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- [21:05]
Nicole Wallace
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- [21:09]
Jacob Soboroff
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- [21:15]
Nicole Wallace
Harmful fillers or preservatives. Head to ollie.com tell them all about your dog and use code happypup to get 60% off your welcome kit.
- [21:23]
Jacob Soboroff
With a bonus, you'll get a storage container for a mess free experience and.
- [21:27]
Nicole Wallace
It comes with a 30 day money back guarantee if your dog doesn't lick the bowl clean.
- [21:35]
Jacob Soboroff
To the rest of the country, what should they be looking at from your candidacy and if you win tonight, what it means for the Democratic Party as a whole going to the midterms?
- [21:44]
Nicole Wallace
Well, I'm going to work relentlessly to drive down costs for people. So I think as we are navigating what is going on in the nation right now with, as I said, constant attacks on our economy from the federal government and a need to make sure our state governments are running incredibly well to, to serve people and create opportunity, that's what I think people should look to New Jersey to lead on as I govern. That was New Jersey Democrat Mikey Sherrill speaking with our colleague Von Hilliard this morning. New Jersey is another one of those closely watched races today. And tonight Democrats are seeing reasons for hope if we still do that in a competitive race. The New York Times reports this quote, the early returns in New Jersey are giving Democrats in the state cautious optimism. Is both the overall high turn and the Democratic early vote advantage in their views signal a path to victory for miss Cheryl. It brings us to our colleague Alicia Menendez, who's on the ground for us in Clifton, New Jersey. Alicia, tell us everything you're seeing and hearing from folks there. Thank you so much, Nicole. You know, I think you, our viewers, your esteemed panel, are all very familiar with the contours of this gubernatorial race, which is why I want to focus on what is happening here in Pasea County. This is a plurality Latino county and it turned a lot of heads in 2024 when it broke for Donald Trump by three points. It was the first time a Republican had carried this county since George H.W. bush was on the ballot in 1992. So as interesting as turnout is going to be here as it relates to Cittarelli and to Sheryl, and it's also going to be a really important bellwether of where the swingiest of swing votes is 10 months into Donald Trump's second term in office. We spent the day here. We spoke to a lot of Latino voters, as you would suspect. There are Democrats who've always voted for Democrats and they are voting for Mikey Sherrill. There are Republicans who've always voted for Republicans and they are voting for Cittarelli. But there was a really interesting dynamic that we found. We spoke to five different Latino voters, voters who sat out the 2024 election. Nicole. They didn't vote for Harris, they didn't vote for Trump. All five of them turning out today to vote for Mikey Sherrill. One of them, Joanna, she set out the 2024 race. She says that it is a decision she now regrets. Our colleague Alex Tabett asked her if immigration was playing a role in her deciding to turn out today for Cheryl. And this is what she said. It's just not fair the way that people are trying to do it the proper way.
- [24:22]
Jacob Soboroff
And then all of a sudden they're just like getting scooped up and, like, taken away.
- [24:25]
Nicole Wallace
And their families are here, children are here, grandparents, and it's just, it's a. It's a lot. So honestly, like, sorry for crying. It is a lot.
- [24:36]
Jacob Soboroff
You, you really don't, you don't need to apologize. I wish I could give you a hug, to be honest. Sorry. Obviously, for you, this isn't just politics. This is personal. This is your family. This is your community. This is people that you know and that you love. But I guess knowing that what has happened in this second Trump administration. Do you kind of wish you would have voted in 2024?
- [25:07]
Nicole Wallace
I do. Okay, so that's a voter who sat out 2024, but is coming out now over the immigration. I also spoke to a voter who in the past had voted for Democrats. He voted for Trump in 2024. He's coming out today to vote for Mikey Sherrill. Take a listen to what he told me. His name is Romaldo. You voted for the Democrat for Mikey Sheryl?
- [25:31]
Jacob Soboroff
Yes.
- [25:32]
Nicole Wallace
Why did you vote for Mikey Sheryl? I voted on before, but now I look the strongest, different. The economy.
- [25:40]
Jacob Soboroff
I don't look good.
- [25:42]
Nicole Wallace
That's above for Democrat. You said the economy. Also, when we spoke earlier, you mentioned immigration. What is it about his immigration action?
- [25:51]
Jacob Soboroff
Well, that's, That's.
- [25:53]
Nicole Wallace
I'm very sad for this because some people. Okay, pero a lot of people working good. The family is the more important in the life.
- [26:03]
Jacob Soboroff
So these are a lot of the.
- [26:04]
Nicole Wallace
Voters I'm gonna have my eyes on tonight, Nicole. Voters who are coming out who may be considered low propensity voters, but they are voting uncharacteristically in what is not even an off year election. And some of these voters who in the past have been Democrats, switched to Trump and are now regretting those votes. I think it's going to tell us a lot about whether or not Mikey Sherrill is able to cut into Trump's gains with Latino voters potentially proving a path forward for Democrats or if Cittarelli is able to hold on to some of those gains. The, the other reason, though, Nicole, before I hand it back to you that we are in Pasea county is this is the only county in New Jersey where the Trump Justice Department has sent election monitors. We're at two polling places earlier today in Patterson. One of them had an election monitor there. That same polling place earlier in the day had also received what turned out to be a non credible bomb threat. So it is a reminder that as laser focus as these two candidates have been on questions of affordability, there are bigger questions about the very fragile nature of our democracy that are in sharp, sharp focus here in Passaic County. Alicia, let me ask you about the two issues that the voters themselves, their surface the economy and immigration. Those are among Trump's historically low approval ratings. These aren't just two of the lowest indicators. They are the lowest that his numbers have ever been since he's been on the national political stage. Are there any other issues shaping the contours of how this race will go that you see or that you're aware of from living there as a sort of viewer and seeing the ad wars and knowing what's going on in terms of how these candidates have waged politics? Nicole, when I tell you this was message discipline like I have never seen before. It was affordability, affordability followed by affordability. A lot of focus on energy costs. That's been a big issue here in New Jersey. Cittarelli trying to try to tie Sherrill to Phil Murphy, our governor here. You know, Cheryl, trying to tie Cittarelli to Trump, Both of them having to answer questions of that nature, but on the issues themselves, Nicole, it was affordability across the board. Lisa Menendez, thank you for joining us. I should tell our viewers you're going to put on your bat cape and fly back to the mothership here and be on the air with us all night long. We'll see you in the 7pm hour. We will all be there. You can see all of us on the screen. Actually, I don't have my glasses on, but I think we're all there. We're going to sneak in a break. We're going to bring Tim Miller in and our panel back on the other side. Don't go anywhere. We are back on this Election Day with Michelle Basil and Tim Miller. Tim Miller, I didn't mean to leave you out of the first conversation. California was a place you called home for a long time. What are you hearing and what are you thinking about Prop 50?
- [29:18]
Jacob Soboroff
It's all good, Nicole. The music gives me clammy hands after the last couple election nights, so I needed a little bit to get ready to be on. Look, I'm hearing what Jacob was reporting and seeing. I'm like you. I love hearing from the voters, my friends out there in California. I think it looks quite good for Proposition 50. I think that, you know, what you led with the beginning of the show is super important, right. That Donald Trump is. We still have to go through this now. I think it's important that we're clear eyed just about how shaky our situation is that the pro democracy movement, the Democratic Party, have to win by big numbers in order to avoid having elections be challenged right now in this country. Right. I think that if Prop 50 wins are very narrow margins, you can already see the playbook that Donald Trump is going through. It's the same playbook after he lost the 2020 election. Probably if it wins by a big margin, those kind of pretend like it didn't happen and he'll just complain about it from time to time. That's not really a good place to be when you feel like elections are only going to count for sure if they're blowouts because the President of the United States wants to undermine them. So I think California is super important. And I guess the other thing, I'd say the one, well, I guess there have been two big races, but one of the two big states we haven't got to yet is in Virginia. I just wanted to tie those elections to what's happening in California as well. Because if Abigail Spamberger wins the governor's race there, which it looks like she's likely to the Democrats, and if the Democrats hold on to the House of Delegates there, then Virginia will potentially have an opportunity and they've signaled that they will follow California's lead when it comes to the redistricting fight. And that's a state where Democrats could pick up another three seats, maybe. So conceivably the result of Today, if Prop 50 gets through and if those results happen in Virginia is somewhere in the neighborhood of eight seats in the House of Representatives that the Democrats could to pick up to offset the gerrymandering that Republicans are doing in Texas, Missouri, Indiana and elsewhere.
- [31:12]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, it's super important. And thank you for one for bringing Virginia back into the conversation and tying all those together. I mean, the other sort of net that catches all these stories is the location of where Donald Trump, who's made no secret. I mean, all the reporting on Trump's relationship with DOJ suggests that in instances where Trump decides to Blanche and Bondi aren't part of the chain of command. I mean, Halligan seems to be reporting directly to Donald Trump on some of the grand jury presentations she's made in Tish James and Jim Comey. So this is what doj, which Trump has made no secret in describing as an organization that he leads when he chooses to. So this is where DOJ has sent election monitors. Passaic County, New Jersey, where Alicia just was. Kern County, California. Riverside County, California. Fresno County, California. Orange County, California. Los Angeles County, California. Does that sound like a strategic list to you or just big vote buckets?
- [32:19]
Jacob Soboroff
It seems like a big vote buckets with Hispanic voters to me. And, you know, look, I think that intimidation is certainly something that is on their mind. I think a lot of times their efforts at voter suppression end up backfiring because it draws attention and, and people don't want to be bullied by the government and people want to kind of speak out for their side and have their voice be heard. But yeah, look, if you're going to send election bonders, you're going to send federal officials to voting locations in places that have big Hispanic populations or maybe they're mixed families where somebody in the family is a legal resident and someone is undocumented, that might deter them from going to vote. And I certainly think that is one of the things at least that's on their mind.
- [33:05]
Nicole Wallace
Well, my first question went to what will they be wearing? Because the folks that are walking the streets don't look like ICE agents used to look. And one of the reasons is we learned that they're mostly CBP agents or largely CBP agents now, but they're also dressed like they could be in Fallujah. I mean, they're dressed in fatigues in many instances and they're wearing things strapped to their bodies that in past days they could. I mean, the look is meant to do what you just said, intimidate.
- [33:41]
Jacob Soboroff
Of course. And this is a kind of tale as old as time, going back to kind of police strategies in inner city neighborhoods and things of that nature. So this is not a first for that, but for it to be a federal government directed operation, for Donald Trump to care about it personally, for him to be directing, as you mentioned, what's happening at doj, for him to be posting about how he's Hearing about election theft or whatever, trying to raise suspicions about the election. And then like you mentioned, we'll have to kind of see exactly what things look like at these various voting locations. But the CBP and the ICE agents, they don't look like people that are there just to do their job and keep the peace and go after violent criminals. They look like they're there to intimidate and this is part of their plan. And they also will tell you that this isn't even us. You know, guessing that. I mean, the administration just posted, I think it was the New York magazine story. It was a magazine story, you know, about all of the kind of notch with pictures of some of the extreme activities that ICE and CBB have been undertaking. They blew up the pictures of the magazine and posted it outside the detention center in New York City today, where they're also going to be elections. So they're not subtle about what they're trying to do.
- [34:58]
Nicole Wallace
Let me ask you, Tim, about Gavin Newsom. His public life has been, I just described it as sort of, you know, a lot of big swings. And I think a lot of people in the Democratic coalition haven't loved every move he's made. But he has been out there perhaps most aggressively trying to find his place in this post 2024electoral defeat, this new time of Trump. He's found his voice maybe on the streets of LA when not just ICE and cbp, but also military and some active duty military showed up in Los Angeles. And between the time that he announced and I was on the air when he went to the Prop 50 announcement and there were federal agents outside of his event, I mean, he's living the story that we're all trying to cover and tell. What are your thoughts about him right now?
- [35:50]
Jacob Soboroff
Yeah, yeah. Look, I haven't agreed with every move that he's made either when it comes to the governing of California. But I think that where he's been strong throughout his whole career is as a fighter. Right. I go back to, you know, I've always had a little bit of a soft spot for him because you go back to the gay marriage fight back when he was mayor of San Francisco. He was one of the first people at the tip of the spear fighting for gay marriage back when it wasn't quite popular. It wasn't nearly as popular. It is now nationally, of course. And then you think about the fight against Ron DeSantis kind of making the case for Democratic governance over Republican governance. And then in that clip you played at the beginning of the hour, him talking here about how in this moment, I think the Republicans in Texas and nationally made the bet the Democrats would do what Democrats do and gather a commission together and think about what they do. And we'll revisit in 2028 and instead just kind of grabbing the mantle of this fight and saying, no, we're going to take you on head on right now. We're going to play hardball. I think in those moments of the big fights has been where he's been strongest as opposed to maybe some of the governing coalition management elements of the job.
- [36:57]
Nicole Wallace
And this hunger for a fighter is something Democrats have been screaming from the rooftops. We'll turn to the state of the Democratic voter and what we are, what questions we have that we may have more answers to when we wake up tomorrow morning. There's another look at those lines to vote in California where the only thing on the ballot is what we're talking about, Prop 50. There's much more breaking news coverage ahead. So don't go anywhere like Tim, I get a little clammy when I hear that music, but we will be hearing that music all night long. Welcome back to our election night coverage with Tim, Michelle and Basil. Tim, let me give you one more and then I'll open it back up to the panel. What do you, what questions do you have tonight that that you'll have some answers to in the morning?
- [37:55]
Jacob Soboroff
I'm interested in where Alicia is right now. I was really interested to hear more for her tonight. I think the Hispanic vote question will tell us a little bit about I think that will be a group that will be able to actually see whether there's been a change in the first 10 months and how people vote. Donald Trump's over performance with Hispanics was a big reason why he succeeded. We don't talk about that as much as we do some of the other demographic groups that he overperformed with in 2024. And so that will be interesting to see for sure. And you know, like I said in the first one, I'm a political dork. So I'm going to be looking at those Virginia and New Jersey for that matter, state legislative races. Let's see what's happening in the Virginia House of Delegates. Are they going to get a big enough lead to do a redistricting next year? Are Democrats going to do better in places that they haven't done as well, exurban parts of the state? I think Democrats will obviously do well in Northern Virginia where government workers are rightfully enraged about Doge and What's happened in this administration, but how do they do in the rest of the state, I think will be interesting as well.
- [38:53]
Nicole Wallace
You and I could watch returns come in together. I'm interested in those things as well. But I think something that we've talked in the breaks about and that Tim is getting at is that maybe it was really never about the price of eggs. I don't think the last election, I mean, this election, I think, is about the price of eggs. Correct. Because they've all gone up. They're like $11 and everything else. You know, eggs, they're selling like egg. Lucy's. I don't think the last election was.
- [39:19]
Jacob Soboroff
About a price increase, but I think.
- [39:21]
Nicole Wallace
It was about something that is just as fragile and that is people's sense of their. Their place in the world. And that was true for a lot of MAGA voters who thought that Donald Trump, you know, they may not have had his money, but he made them feel better about themselves in a world that they didn't understand. You know, they were afraid of a future that was bearing down on them. For a lot of Latino voters, they.
- [39:41]
Jacob Soboroff
Liked his border policy.
- [39:43]
Nicole Wallace
And that's kind of the nuanced message, you know, to follow up on what Tim was saying. I'm going to be watching Latino voters because some of them, despite what's happening with all the ICE raids, you know, we took all this time, we went through the process, they need to do that, too. And so there's sort of a nuanced message there, but the affordability issue is big this time. You asked him what he'll be looking for. I'll be looking at the Latino vote, but also in Virginia. Virginia is like three states.
- [40:10]
Jacob Soboroff
You know, there's Northern Virginia.
- [40:11]
Nicole Wallace
There are 235,000 federal workers in Virginia. And they're angry right now. And so that's going to tip the.
- [40:19]
Jacob Soboroff
Balance in Northern Virginia.
- [40:20]
Nicole Wallace
But when you get out into rural Virginia, that's when you start seeing the big, huge Trump flags that are the size of small houses, you know, I mean, literally that you see from the freeway when you're driving down past Richmond or the Plains.
- [40:31]
Jacob Soboroff
Yes, exactly.
- [40:32]
Nicole Wallace
And, you know, into the Shenandoah down by Lynchburg. And so I'll be looking at what will happen with some of those voters. Farmers, you know, who are hit hard. They're not growing soybeans in Virginia, but they're still hit hard. And then the other group are young people. When Barack Obama was there to stump for September, he went to Hampton Roads, big College area, Old Dominions, There HBCU is their big military base. So be looking at young voters in that area to see, you know, Virginia just is sort of over indexed with very good institutions of higher education and whether she's able to activate them and whether that will then translate in a.
- [41:11]
Jacob Soboroff
Good way for the Democratic Party going forward. You know, one of the things that I have to call out and Alicia talked about this is the incredible message discipline that these Democrats running have had. And I think that's incredibly important at a time when voters have been really talking a lot about affordability. The candidates have amplified that and they've stayed on course. I like the fact that that mirrors what's happen with Democrats in Congress talking about health care. So I think this kind of, this level of message discipline is something that can be carried forward to the next few cycles. I also looking at, we didn't talk about New York, and I know New York is very different from the rest of the country, but I think what's happening in New York is something that can be mapped through the rest of the country, which is that this election has the opportunity to, to really reform the Democratic coalition. My mentor, Arnie Seguero, I'll say his name, told me in the early 90s when I started that every movement becomes the establishment. And I think the movement that got me into politics is the establishment that this current movement is pushing back against. And if we can find, if there is a way that this new coalition can really solidify itself, maybe that's not just what's happening in New York, but also of Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, then I do think that that is a way forward for Democrats in 26 and 28.
- [42:37]
Nicole Wallace
And the margin is so big. Are you just watching for how big the margin actually is and who turns out or.
- [42:42]
Jacob Soboroff
Well, I'm looking at turnout for one because we've seen some really significant turnout in New York and other places. So that's an energy, particularly for young people, that's going to be important.
- [42:52]
Nicole Wallace
Okay. The hour went so quickly. I never say that. I mean, I do sometimes say that, but it went particularly quickly today. Thank you guys for being here with us. Michelle, Norris Bazils, Michael, Tim Miller, the best of the best people you want to spend any election day with. My thanks to all of them after the break. Against the backdrop of today's election, there's also the government shutdown, of course, Donald Trump's latest threat causing confusion and chaos. What's new after a quick break. Don't go anywhere. Donald Trump appears to have no issue with denying food stamps to more than 40 million Americans, threatening in a social media post earlier today to withhold SNAP benefits until the end of the government shutdown. Donald Trump's threat is not just weaponizing food insecurity and access to food, but if he follows through on it, he would also be in defiance of a federal court order that ordered him and his administration to continue to make payments for food aid. This month, the White House attempted to walk back Donald Trump's threat further adding to the confusion for the millions of Americans who rely on SNAP benefits, claiming that the administration is, quote, fully complying with the court's order. We'll continue to try to sift through their confusing statements and monitor that story when we come back. We've been talking about Virginia all hours, so after the break, we'll bring in our friend and colleague Ali Vital Brutality, who's on the ground there. Don't go anywhere much more ahead.
- [44:29]
Jacob Soboroff
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Nicole Wallace
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Jacob Soboroff
With a bonus, you'll get a storage container for a mess free experience and.
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Nicole Wallace
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This year's races may not include a presidential contest, but the stakes for democracy could not be any higher as four big races across New York City, New Jersey, Virginia and California will tell us a whole lot about you, about the American people and how they are pushing back if they don't like this administration's anti Democratic ways. They'll also tell us whether the Democratic Party is able to harness that discontent and anger that we see in the polls as it looks ahead to next year's midterm contest. We are two hours away from the closing of the polls in Virginia, where the race for governor seems like it is the Democrats to lose. Former Congresswoman Abigail Spamberger is running against the current Republican lieutenant governor, Winsome Earl Sears. Spamberger has maintained a strong lead in all the polls there, campaigning on a platform of affordability, affordability and affordability with a side of anti Trumpism. Politico's Jonathan Martin notes what he will be looking for in this race. Quote, if she can outdo former governor Ralph Northam's 8.9% margin of victory in 2017 and post the largest margin of any modern Virginia Democratic governor. If Spamberger gets into double digits, she makes a statement not just about her lackluster opponent, but about both Virginia's sweeping rejection of Trumpism and the appeal of a moderate Democratic woman from the suburbs. Here's a little of her closing message to voters. We need a governor who will speak up when careless, chaotic, reckless economic policies out of Washington hurt our economy, raising costs for families, making it harder for small business owners to survive, and crushing Virginia's farmers. We do not need someone who has been in lockstep with this administration every step of the way. It's where we start the hour with some of our most favorite reporters and friends. Former Democratic senator, MSNBC political analyst Claire McCaskill is back with us. Plus, former Assistant U.S. attorney and President of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, Maya Wiley's here. Puck new senior political columnist, MSNBC national affairs analyst John Heilman is at the it's not a table, it's a desk. And on the ground for us in Arlington, Virginia, MSNBC senior Capitol Hill correspondent and the anchor of Way Too early, my friend Ali Vitale is here. Ali, I never get to see you because your shift is literally the opposite of mine, but I'm so happy to start with you. Tell us what you're seeing and hearing and feeling there in Arlington, Virginia. I know. I'm so happy to get the excuse to stay up late with you. Nicole, I've really missed you. But look here on the ground in Virginia, I think it's really a story that you tee up so nicely. It is a campaign for Spanberger about affordability. It's a campaign that's localized, but the local issues are national simply because of Virginia's proximity to Washington and the sheer number of federal workers that live in this state. You know, I've been going to town halls in Virginia trying to track the response of federal workers back during the first months of the administration when their biggest problem was Doge and Elon Musk. Now that's transitioned to the continued rifts and furloughs and even firings by the Trump administration during this government shutdown. And of course, the fact that many of these federal workers, whether they are rift furloughed or laid off, some of them also don't know when their next paycheck is coming because the government shutdown is only stretching on. Of course, I've been tracking that in my capacity as our Senior Hill correspondent, and there's some optimism that maybe there's a deal close at hand. But for folks who were going to the polls today, you could feel the frustration, and I think it's bearing out in some of their votes. Take a listen to what one voter had to say to me just this afternoon. A presidential administration that's going to try to do a lot of bad things and we need people ready to stand up for them and also stand up for what we need in Virginia. Abigail Spanberger, are you someone who was voting for her or against the Trump administration, or is it some mix of both? Honestly, probably against the Trump administration, But I'm hoping that she will do good to represent progressive values in the the state. I'm not sure she will, but I hope. As you walked in there and voted, are you thinking about the shutdown? I mean, that's why I'm available. I mean, it's a little bit of dark humor there from that one person who is deeply impacted by this government shutdown. But I also think that polling location that I was at in Alexandria this afternoon sort of was a physical embodiment of a lot of the issues that we're seeing at play here, Nicole, because on the one hand, it was a polling, polling place, but then just across the street there was also an active food bank. And we've seen the sheer stress on those food banks because of programs like SNAP being held in limbo and because of the number of federal workers who, because they don't know where their next paycheck is coming from, are leaning on these resources to just help feed their families as congresspeople try to get it together and reopen the government. So those are the dynamics at play then. I also want to pick up on something that you were reading from Jonathan Martin because I think he hits the nail on the head. I think out of tonight's election night, if we go by what the polls are telling us at a very early point, which is that Spanberger will win in Virginia and that Zo Run Mamdani will win in New York City, I think that Democrats have a few different stories to tell about what it means to be a Democrat in 2025 and beyond. But I think it's important that we underscore that for Spanberger. And you know, this is my sweet spot because of my book. And I know Spanberger's read it because she keeps it on the mantle in the background of some of her live shots on her bookshelf. But this does show what the expanding paradigm of female Democratic leadership can mean in executive roles. If she does break a glass ceiling here in the Commonwealth, becoming the first woman to be the governor here, that would be a moment where Democrats are forced to explore this idea of the ways that women can be great governors and great executives at a time of very, very high stakes, higher than ever. I'm so happy to have Maya and Claire here on set to have that conversation. I want to ask you one more question, though, about the Commonwealth voter stories like Doge, where usaid, which has served as a soft power instrument for Republican and Democratic presidents since it existed, they are thrust into the national spotlight and they burn really hot. And then the next crisis knocks them out of the headlines. The purges that the FBI and doj. Again, their national stories when they happen, because these people leave and they by and large tell their lifelong sort of career colleagues to hold the line as long as they can and then they move out of the national spotlight. The capitulation of law firms again in the news when they happen. But these are places that, because they've done a deal with Trump, don't hire some of these fired federal workers. All those stories remain in the local section of the local papers and TV stations and websites in Virginia and in Maryland and in the District because they are local news. That traumatized federal workforce. That's Russ Boatsworth, as you know as well as anyone is the electorate in the Commonwealth. Tell me how those issues and the intentional trauma inflicted on federal workers is playing in this contest. I mean, I, even if I wasn't talking directly to a federal worker, everyone here is knows federal workers. It's either the teachers whose students are in their class, it's their friends, it's their neighbors, their spouses. And so every time I come here, everyone has that story to share. And so, of course, they're taking that into the ballot box. And I think that that's what makes this race, as much as it's local, a very much national one, and one that is a referendum on the Trump administration. I mean, you have to look no further than the fact that winsome Earl Sears, the Republican candidate here, has on her side keep a good thing going, basically keep me as a continuation of the Youngkin years. Now, Youngkin, if you remember back in 2021, and I know that you do, he really had to work to keep Trump close, but not too close to be able to win in Virginia. But he did capitalize on the culture wars. I just think the issue set here over the course of the last four years has changed so significantly. And the wind driving that issue set change is the president of the United States. The fact that the issues that voters have have in front of them now are when is my next paycheck coming? Cost of goods at the grocery store are still high and the person who was elected to fix it isn't doing that. I'm not sure where my next paycheck is coming from. Jobs that previously were relied upon in this area are going by the wayside and seem to be a political cudgel at this point on behalf of Russ vote. So I think that's very much in the ether. But I'll leave you with this. I had a few conversations this morning, Nicole, one of them with a woman who said this is my second, second time only ever voting for a Democrat. And she said she was doing it because of Trump. Wow. Ali Vitale, thank you for your great reporting. I hope you have a nap planned at some point in the night. Thank you so much. I want to bring me into our coverage MSNBC senior national political correspondent Jacob Sibaroff. He is still in Sacramento, California for us covering Gavin Newsom and all things Prop 50. What are you seeing and hearing this hour?
- [55:23]
Jacob Soboroff
Well, nothing has slowed down at all. Nicole, the back of the line. Let me just, can I just say hello to you real quick? Since you're on the back of the line? What's your name? Farouk. Farouk, I'm Jacob. It's nice to meet you. It's a long line. Seems like people are taking their time to get inside. Only one issue on the ballot, Proposition 50. Why'd you decide to wait on the line and wait to cast your vote? Like I was told, it's my civic duty, so I'm just doing my part. What is it about this proposition? The redrawing of the district lines here in California? Governor Newsom says it's in response to. To partisan gerrymandering, usurpation of democracy in the other states by the Republicans. Are you worried about the future? Is democracy your defining issue? Yeah, I'd say yeah, definitely. All right, well, I appreciate you. Good luck on the line. Thank you so much. Nicole, let's just take a little walk because I was talking to some of the other folks earlier as well. I know I told you I was going to come back. So. What's your name? Taylor. Taylor, you've been on the line now for a little while. This is an off year election. What are you doing here? You know, exercising my right to vote, you know, making my voice heard. No candidates on the ballot, but Proposition 50 is going to redraw the lines of the congressional districts here, take it away from the independent redistricting commission and potentially give five seats to the Democrats. Why is that important to you? I don't know that I'm well read enough to expand upon it. So what brought you out? Why did you want to be here? You know, to make my voice heard, you know, support the candidates that I. I know that I support. And I think that that's right because. And Nicole, I will say to you that all the advertisements that I've seen, I don't know. Do you want to weigh in here a little bit, too?
- [56:48]
Nicole Wallace
I was gonna say, I think there's a lot of, like, propaganda and politicization, and the way people are phrasing things isn't always accurate. And so it's important to, like, read on it and know what we're voting for.
- [57:00]
Jacob Soboroff
Let's keep going, Nicole. Thank you guys very much. The thing that, you know that, that reminds me of is the ads over and over again are leaning in on the issues. They're leaning on the implications of this democracy. And the tenuous balance has been held in, like Governor Newsom says, who works directly across the street, in the building across the street. You guys, I was talking to earlier, too. How are you feeling about tonight about the future of democracy in California and in the nation? I'm feeling good about it. I feel like most people, especially with this voting, I feel like a lot of people are more proactively going out to vote. Like, you can see the line. Have you ever voted in an off year? Presidential. An off year election. Tuesday after the first Monday in November. November. No, actually, I haven't. First time? Yeah, first time. Have you ever voted ever? I have, I have. But not an off your election like this. How about you? What's your name?
- [57:44]
Nicole Wallace
Cameron.
- [57:44]
Jacob Soboroff
Cameron, what are you doing here? I already voted, but I'm here with him, so those are my favorite, I think. Nicole, we talked about this on election day in 2024. The people who show up online and wait with their friends to go and vote. Why? What's motivating you? Why do you want to stand together and be here today?
- [58:00]
Nicole Wallace
I think we have a right to.
- [58:02]
Jacob Soboroff
Use our voice, and it's awesome that he's doing it today. So just supporting you feeling motivated? Yeah, extremely motivated. Well, good, because you got a little bit of a weight left. I'll show you guys the rest of the line. Nicole, let's keep going. But, yeah, no, it's not lost on me that Governor Newsom works directly across the street in the building right here. And so I can't remember exactly what side of the building his office is on. And if he can look down and see this. But it must be reassuring. Nicole, this is the governor's office here, and this is the State of California building, where the governor's office in Sacramento. Not at the state Capitol, but his private office is. It must be reassuring to him to look out. You got a big smile on your face to look out and see a big smile like the one that you have. What's your name?
- [58:39]
Nicole Wallace
Caitlin.
- [58:39]
Jacob Soboroff
Caitlin, how does it feel to be online today here?
- [58:41]
Nicole Wallace
Feels Good. Yeah.
- [58:43]
Jacob Soboroff
Proposition 50 is on the ballot. What is it about Proposition 50? Redrawing of district line Sounds boring and geeky and nerdy, but that's not what I'm hearing from people.
- [58:53]
Nicole Wallace
No, I think it's a good time to, dare I say, fight fire with fire.
- [58:59]
Jacob Soboroff
So that's what I've heard from the man across the street. Governor Newsom has said, let's fight fire with fire. He saw what happened in Texas, and he said, they don't want to rest. He doesn't want to wait. He wants to get those congressional seats back. 52 of them here in the state of California could tip five over to the Democrats and away from the Republicans. How does that make you feel?
- [59:16]
Nicole Wallace
Makes me feel good. I mean, this is like our generation. I feel like we're suffering a little bit. So it's kind of time to take it back. Take back the power that we can.
- [59:25]
Jacob Soboroff
All right, thank you so much. Tell me your name again.
- [59:27]
Nicole Wallace
Caitlin.
- [59:27]
Jacob Soboroff
Caitlin. Nice to meet you. Nice to meet you, Nicole. Everybody has a different story. Some people are more dialed into the specifics of the proposition itself and what it would do. But everybody seems to have an understanding that there's a lot on the line here to show up, you know, on a day like today.
- [59:40]
Nicole Wallace
Well, and the bigger story that you're stitching together for us is turnout, turnout, turnout, which is really incredible in an off year election for a contest where there's just a ballot initiative on the ballot, there's nothing else there. It's pretty remarkable to consider.
- [59:55]
Jacob Soboroff
Not a single candidate. That's exactly right. Not a single candidate. Thank you, Nicole.
- [59:59]
Nicole Wallace
I hope that the pointing to where Gavin Newsom's office is is an invitation for Governor Gavin Newsom to walk outside of that office and come talk to you on that line. So if that happens, you just wave your arms. We'll get you right back on the governor.
- [60:12]
Jacob Soboroff
You know where to find me. I'm right down here, sir.
- [60:14]
Nicole Wallace
You know where to find Jacob Zumfrom. Can we have an embarrassment of from Ali to Jacob to our beloved colleague Ali Belshi, who's going to give us our first look at the exit polling. Ali, I'm so thrilled that you are in this role. You're going to be talking us through the whole night. Tell us what you're saying and later.
- [60:30]
Jacob Soboroff
On we'll have actual numbers. Right now we've got exit polling which is very, very telling. And good afternoon to all of you and all of you out there. Let's take a quick look. The most important issue to people who are voting, let's go to New Jersey because we're expecting this race to be interesting and potentially quite close. The economy, first of all, taxes are their biggest issue. 36% of voters said taxes are the biggest issue. The economy comes in next at 34%. Health care comes in third at 16%. Immigration, interestingly enough, this is a city in which a state in which one in four people is not born there or an immigrant, 7%, it doesn't come in very high. And crime, of course, is down at 3%. Okay, that's in New Jersey, which we'll be watching very closely. I'll remind you, the governor's race in New Jersey last time around was quite called the following evening. So we're going to see how tight it is. And over here, let's look at Virginia most important issues. Very, very different. Now this is a state that has more than 300,000 people employed by the federal government. About half of them go into Washington, D.C. or Maryland to work. About half of them work for government installations or employers in Virginia. 49% of Virginia voters say that the economy is their most important issue. 21% say it's health care. This is a big deal. Some of these people are getting their health care through their government jobs, some of which have been eliminated through Doge. Immigration, much bigger concern than it is in New Jersey. It's 11%. It was 7% in New Jersey. Education, which is not showing up in the New Jersey polling, is 10% of the concern of Virginia voters. Crime's a little higher than it was, but again, 3% in New Jersey, 5% in Virginia. This is not probably what Donald Trump's hoping for because crime has been so central to people there. Let's go back to New Jersey for a second, because the economy is the major issue here. 42% of the voters who we've talked to in New Jersey say the economy's not so good, 36% say it's good. 2%, ironically, think it's excellent, and 17% think it's poor. So this is gonna be very telling. How does this play out in terms of who you vote, voted for, for governor or in your local races? Because more people think the economy is not so good than good. That's an important one. Let's take a look at Virginia. Again. I'm just. I'm bouncing back and forth because I want to compare what those two states look like in terms of the economy. So let's go to Virginia Family finances. Here we ask people, what's going on in Your own household? 62% of people in Virginia say their income is holding steady, 24% say that they're falling behind, 12% say they're getting ahead. So, again, the people who are doing well in the economy are a smaller number of all of these. And let's go to this one. This is job approval for President Trump. We've heard this in the last little while, while you've been on tv asking people what do they think of Donald Trump? Is this vote that they've cast a vote for or against Donald Trump. Now, we're not entirely sure how it all breaks down. That said, in Virginia, 56% of voters disapprove of Donald Trump's performance. In New Jersey, almost identical. 55%. Take a look at California. Just jump to the bottom here. 63% disapprove of Donald Trump. Remember, there's not much else on the ballot. In California, they're literally voting on redistricting. 63% don't like Donald Trump's policies. Here in New York City, which will be the biggest of all the almost 30 municipal elections going on across the country. 60%, 89% disapprove of Donald Trump. Why is this interesting, Nicole? Because you got three candidates. 4. Eric Adams is still technically on the ballot. He can't be elected mayor. He's withdrawn. But of the three candidate, none of them are particularly pro Trump, whether it's Cuomo or the actual Republican candidate, Curtis Lewa, obviously Zoran Mamdani isn't. But Donald Trump definitely wants Andrew Cuomo to win. So this is tricky. When Trump endorsed Cuomo today, Cuomo sitting there thinking, thinking, I don't know if I really want your vote, because 69% of voters in New York City do not approve of Donald Trump.
- [64:40]
Nicole Wallace
Ali, I am so excited that you're going to be the one talking us through all of this. The numbers are already making my brain hurt. What are you watching for and how. I mean, are you looking at how that economy number tracks with the fate of the Democrats?
- [64:54]
Jacob Soboroff
Yeah, I think there's three things I'm looking for. Number one, how does the economy number track with Democrats? Number two. Number two, why are people voting the way they're voting? Is it about Donald Trump? Is it about the future of the Democratic Party? Is it something else? Number three thing I'm looking for is whether or not those votes signal to the Democratic Party what the future looks like for them, because there may be very different things coming out. If you're voting for what Gavin Newsom has done in California, it's different than what Mikey Sherrill is suggesting in New Jersey, which is very different than what Zoran Mandani is suggesting in New York. I think you made this point earlier. People could be voting the same way for very different reasons, which we'll have to parse through the course of the night.
- [65:35]
Nicole Wallace
You know that your wardrobe choices will set a trend, that it's not just a vest, that it's Steve Cornett's khakis, and that whoever made that should have stocked up because you are. You were going to move markets the way Carrie Bradshaw moves markets.
- [65:48]
Jacob Soboroff
We shall see. We shall. I hope I'm here all night so you can cast your vote on that, too.
- [65:52]
Nicole Wallace
I love it. I love it. Maya, jump in on what you heard from really all three. What is the picture looking like for you as we sit here sort of in the last window of the night before we have real data. You know, it looks to me a like Zoram Hamdani is going to be the next mayor of New York City. It looks to me like Abigail Spanberger is going to do quite well in the Virginia races. And it looks to me like New Jersey's too close to call. And if you look at what the pattern is, and if I marry what we've heard from Ali, and if I marry that to what we're seeing in this race and what we're hearing and feeling from people, it's about affordability. It comes down not just to how they feel about what's happening in Washington, but whether they feel like they're going to get someone in office where they live, who's really going to bring solutions that are going to bring down their cost of living. That is one of the reasons why we see Zoramdani doing well. And full disclosure, I endorsed him. Are you advising him as well? I am actually not advising him. Not advising him. Okay, let me be very clear. I've supported him as a New Yorker. I've endorsed him as a former candidate. You know, a little over four years ago, I was doing what he did in general. But this is the thing New Yorkers have always shown up for, people who are proposing solutions for, for their daily lives. I think that's what we are hearing from Abigail Spamberger when we hear her on the campaign trail. And that is where, when we see those numbers of New Jersey residents who are looking for how their taxes are going to come down, it's because they have some of the highest taxes in the country, and they are looking for affordability. They're looking for where their pain points are and who they're going to believe to bring those pain points down. I will say I think. I think the difference in New Jersey is, you know, if you're the person in the party with the unpopular former governor, it is harder. You have to. She's had to distance herself. And that is always trickier when you're the person in the same party on the ballot. But at the end of the day, it's really, how are you showing up and making people feel like you are the one bringing the solutions? And that is why I think we're seeing the patterns that we're seeing just quickly. On Ali's point about the Trump endorsement for Cuomo, I mean, I don't think Trump plays 3D chess, so I don't think he did it to hurt him, but I'm throwing up Confetti. I'm throwing up confetti from my candidate because I'm like, thank you for drawing the distinction. Thank you for clarifying. Like, if you were on the line, that can't help. Listen, if you watched the debates in the New York City mayors race and Lord knows you weren't necessarily watching them, if you weren't a New Yorker. But for those of us tuning in, and if you're really tuning in and listening, I was hearing Donald Trump in some of the behaviors and statements that were coming out of Andrew Cuomo's mouth. He was already, for me, tracking like someone using a playbook, particularly as we heard him attacking Zoran Kwame Mamdani, who is going to be the first Muslim, the first man of color who is not black, the first person who's going to represent a whole group of people in the city who are thrilled that they are being seen as able to lead. And some of what he was doing in that rhetoric and the fear mongering and some of the stereotypes were frankly for me as a New Yorker, offensive and upsetting and something that reminded me of a playbook from Donald Trump, including playing out the crime narrative and the you're going to be less safe narrative. And when Donald Trump comes out and endorses the, the remember what we saw on Canal street in this city. We saw a tank roll down our city streets as we watched people who live in this city treated like less than human on a major commercial thoroughfare in broad daylight. In broad daylight. And by the way, business owners weren't helped by that behavior either. So I just think that the more you're, the more anything draws attention to who Cuomo looks like and feels like and acts like. That is not a solution to the problems New Yorkers feel we face. The more that helps. Sora Mamdani. All right, I'm dying to bring Claire and Heilman in on this. I'm getting screamed at to take a break before I do that. We will be bursting when we come back to you on the other side of this break as the first polls close in Virginia in a little over 90 minutes. We'll also be joined by Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego on whether Latino voters who supported Donald Trump one year ago will do so again today after nearly 10 months of Donald Trump's placid economy and brutal ICE raids. Our coverage continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere. We are back. There's the music. Cue the music. The music comes with a lot of memories. Hellman, what are your thoughts which race.
- [71:06]
Jacob Soboroff
Would you like to discuss?
- [71:07]
Nicole Wallace
I mean, I mean look for what we have sort of been tracking all year, Prop 50 and the Republican brazen out in public intimidation campaign to get Indiana to follow Texas. What happened in Texas, the brutality and the threats that the Democratic lawmakers there faced when they went to Illinois to draw attention from the country and the, and then the quick response from Gavin Newsom and the way he framed it in front of voters this week saying what Republicans expected us to do is to write a sharply worded op ed in the New York Times. But no, we're voting. You can start there.
- [71:41]
Jacob Soboroff
Prop 50 in terms of the most like the measurable, tangible, important race of the night. California is it. It's it. Because if Democrats get those five seats, it basically invalidates. It levels out the thing it was intended to do. It gets rid of the gains that they, the seats that Republicans stole in Texas. It's important because as Tim was saying earlier, that it will embolden other Democratic governors to take the same step. And it further illustrates the reality, which is that if Gavin Newsom took a big gamble on this, we've talked about this before, the state had twice recently, voters had gone to the polls and had validated, endorsed the notion of independent nonpartisan redistricting commissions. And to go up against that, knowing he would have a well funded opposition was a gambit. It was a gutsy move on his part, just politically speaking. If he lost today, I don't think it would have killed his presidential candidacy, but he would have taken a big setback if he'd lost. Instead, he won. He's going to win decisively and he ran a smart, gutsy campaign. And we've talked a little bit on the show in the past few days about how he's kind of found his voice in a way. Gavin, I've covered him for a long time. He has weaknesses as a politician. There are things that people look at him, they think too slick, too calculating to this, to that in this moment, he took the right kind of gamble for something that really mattered. It helped him find what seems like a voice that's resonating with a lot of people. And I will say to the point about Jacob, you almost want to laugh at first when you hear someone online say I'm here to, you know, I want to support my candidates. And you're like, well, there are no candidates on the ballot. What they did with this initiative in California, the closing ads, the most important ad was Obama, who put a face, a credible face on why this was okay. Someone who, voters who would be persuaded by this seems like Sandy Democratic. Okay. Barack Obama blessed it. And then in the final campaign ad, which again, lot of gross rating points behind this ad you had, it's just all faces. It's Obama, it's Gavin Newsom, it's aoc, it's Chris Murphy, it's Jasmine Crockett. It's just all of them validating this argument. And I think for a lot of voters getting their head around districting, redistricting, gerrymandering, but when they see recognizable faces, they trust in the party. That seems like the most obvious thing in the world, but it's not an obvious thing to do. And they did a really important. I think there are probably a lot of people who don't think they're voting for those people, but they still think of it in terms of I'm with that crowd and I think that was a smart, tactical and strategic way of getting this thing across the finish line as Hawaii. I don't think it's going to be close today.
- [74:15]
Nicole Wallace
Well, here's what I think is interesting, just to build on your point 1. It is these are new muscles for Democrats. Right. This is doing this to me was I was worried it was going to be like the filibuster debate where there was a debate in this country about why don't they get rid of the filibuster to pass voting rights when the Republicans are so clearly changing and rigging their passing voter suppression laws predicated on the big law. Why do they cling to the traditions and act like everything's normal and it's not? This is showing that Democrats do have other muscles if they choose to use them. It also shows that the same voters who supported the independent redistricting can change their mind because they're following events. And I think we worry a lot about information bubbles and information ecosystems. This shows that when people are not numb, they are not tuned out. They just didn't know what they could do in this moment. And Gavin Newsom gave them something to do.
- [75:02]
Jacob Soboroff
Yeah, I don't want to overgeneralize about what, quote, people are, but you know that there's. Look, we'll see what the turnout numbers are. I'm not being skeptical. I'm just saying, you know, there are people who are tuned out. There are also a lot of of people who are not tuned out. The other thing I want to say, we could talk about Virginia and New Jersey later, but because of something that Maya was talking about Democrats tonight, because there is this effort by Republicans to try to make Zor Ahmadami the face of the Democratic Party. Democrats will want to not talk about Zoram Dani. They'll want to talk about Virginia. They'll want to talk about New Jersey. They'll want to talk about California. Whatever you think about Zorab Mamdani, his policies and your concerns and his administrative experience and can he run the city? See, if Democrats do not I'm not even talking about affordability here. If Democrats do not take from Zora Al Mamdani that campaigning with joy and with enthusiasm and with spontaneity and with giving people something to believe in, they don't take that message away wherever they are on the ideological spectrum, they'll make a huge mistake. Cuz that has been the story of a guy who had 2% in the Democratic primary when he started and won the Democratic primary going away and is probably going to win the mayor's race tonight going away.
- [76:09]
Nicole Wallace
And who did all the things, who went everywhere of the sort of postmortems you have to go everywhere he is when everyone talk to everyone, talk to everyone. Yeah. All right. I want to bring FOX News to our coverage. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona. Senator, I'm going to bring Claire into the questioning. But my first question for you is what I've asked everyone today. What are you hearing and seeing and feeling about the country today on election day?
- [76:36]
Jacob Soboroff
Look, I can tell you what I saw was campaigning in New Jersey and one of the most Latino areas of New Jersey when I was in Virginia campaigning there and working class areas and Latino areas. People are worried about the cost of living. And they're asking where was and is the Republican Party and where is President Trump? They promised to bring down the cost of living. They promised to, you know, make things more livable. They promised to go after the criminals that are in our communities that are here illegally. Instead, what we're seeing is costs of everything going up and you're separating families and you're racially profiling Latinos. So I think you're going to see a very strong reaction tonight from very Latino areas of both states, really putting a check on this presidency and the lawlessness that is occurring under the guise of these Republicans.
- [77:22]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, Senator, following up on that, you know, I think New Jersey is going to be the story of the night. Just because it's been 60 years since the Democrats have controlled the governor's mansion for more than two terms. That's a long time. New Jersey, it's always what have you done for me lately? And it's Also a place where Trump saw real movement his way, particularly among Hispanic voters. I'm looking at some of those counties where 40% of the voters are Hispanic. I was shocked that he got that kind of movement on election night. And I don't know how you felt about it, but when they, when they held up signs, mass deportation now at their convention, I naively assumed that the Hispanic community would not like that, and they would know that the vast majority of the people who come across the border were not rapists and murderers and criminals and drug dealers, that they were people looking for a better life. So talk to me about why such a movement towards Trump. Was it just the economy? Was it some of the conservative cultural issues that I know resonate in that community? And what will it mean tonight if you not only see a bigger turnout in those counties that are really dominated by Hispanic voters? And. And what will that mean for the midterms?
- [78:50]
Jacob Soboroff
Well, two things you got to remember, even though the economy may have been improving under the last administration, the last couple of months, Latino community in particular, because we are the working class and the working backbone of this country, we're particularly feeling the pressure of inflation. You had men and women that were working multiple hours, you know, working extra hours and still not able to, you know, pay the rent, you know, make. Make enough money to fully buy what they want at the grocery store. You know, they were not truly living the American dream. And there was a messaging missing when it came to the administration that was running at that point. And our campaign was a little different. We're very much focused on the economics every day, but we did also focus on security. And one of the first things that we talked about during my campaign was in Spanish, about border security and how we were going to bring more border security and immigration reform. What Latinos were hearing that was more closer to what they were looking for was that prices were going to go down to Trump and that he was going to go after criminals and get them deported. Something that a lot of people felt was, you know, was aligned with them. But now, what they're seeing right now, what I'm hearing from former Trump supporters, people that supported Trump, gave him this one chance, is two things. Number one, why are you ratio profiling us? Why are you going after these good, hardworking people that are trying to do their best in this country? And number two, things are not cheaper, they actually are worse. And now I'm working harder and, and making less, and my, my buying power is even less now, and they are mad and they're going to come out and they're going to show that in this election cycle.
- [80:23]
Nicole Wallace
Senator Ruben Gallego, thank you for spending time with us on a busy election day. It's great to see. Claire, I want to follow up with you on this question of sort of perceptions that we had about voters and how the voters always get the last word right. I mean, that's what we'll have tomorrow that we don't have today is how are voters experiencing the Trump era? And I wonder if it's as simple as the lies on the economy are the most epic betrayal. They're the boldest. Like, we've covered the lies as they've come in. 35,000 was the Washington Post tracker, and I think, I think some combination of us was on the air for every one of them. We've all got the brain damage to show for it. But the betrayal on the economy, Trump stood in front of melting groceries at Bedminster and every network, including this one, took it live and said, all these things will be cheaper. And in the transition, he wasn't even inaugurated before, he said, oh, no, they're going to go up, basically, Ruh Roh, I can't make anything cheaper because I'm going to do tariffs and inflation's going to go. That his policies. Someone got to him and said nothing's going down and nothing has gone down. Is it that simple that the betrayal on the economy is a window into the fact that it's all a lie? Well, I think that's the ice cream in the sundae, that no one is getting their ice cream cheaper and no one is getting anything cheaper. And there's also the issue of insurance rates, both health and property and car and utilities and all of that. But the topping on the ice cream and the whipped cream and the cherry, all of that. I think there is a cumulative effect of the crazy that is Trump, whether it's killing people without showing us why in the waters off Venezuela, or whether it's threatening, you know, threatening to go to war with Nigeria. This was a guy who said he was going to get out of foreign entanglements. You know, Ukraine, there's still no peace. It's a tentative peace with Hamas. But I mean, there's so many things blowing up. DOJ and getting rid of career prosecution people. There is a cumulative effect. We think they're numb. Everyone's numb. But I would disagree. I don't think people are numb. I think they are frustrated, angry, depressed. And that's why tonight, turnout. You know, there's two things to winning an election, Nicole, one is turn out the people who support you and two is persuade the people who may have voted for somebody else before. That's how you win an election. New Jersey's going to show us both, it's going to show us how persuaded.
- [82:55]
Jacob Soboroff
And Virginia.
- [82:56]
Nicole Wallace
And Virginia will. But they've got the shutdown that impacts them. I think New Jersey will tell us more about where the national electorate's head is. And you know, I just think people don't, aren't. They weren't comfortable with the chaos when they elected Joe Biden and the chaos is back and it's worse. And I just do think that there will be a craving for something more normal. And I think people are more upset than they were in the first term. We'll see. But if turnout is up like I think it will be for a midterm election, for an off year election, not even a midterm election. And if you see those Hispanics come back to the Democratic side, I think that bodes very. Unless they pull some kind of miracle out of his hat and prices go down, which they want with his tariffs. Right, right. I think one thing back to this point that Senator Gallego made is, you know, there are lots of folks who voted for Trump, black and Latino, not a lot of percentage wise. But for those who did, who actually said, oh, but he's not going to do that. Yes, it's not that they were voting for him to violate people's human rights. That actually was not what they were voting for. They didn't actually believe. They did not. We heard people time and time again saying, well, he's just going to go after criminals. But what we're seeing in all the images and all the stories and in real human suffering is people who are citizens, people who are parents, who've been working for 20 years and paying taxes, people who are now being kids, who are being put in handcuffs, who because they're going to school. I mean, that is a very different image for what people thought they were going to get when they were saying, we did it according to the law. We don't think other people should be able to not do it according to the law. And I think we underestimate that. We also underestimate there was a part of the Trump vote which was a disruption vote. It was like government hasn't been working for me. My life isn't good. I blow it up. Some of these candidates are blow up candidates too. Yeah. All right. Much more with the panel on Donald Trump's historically low poll numbers. And, and how exactly that impacts the outcome of today's contest. Our coverage continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere. Whatever they are, the results the voters tell us tonight about these contests, about these elections will lay the foundation for Democrats across the country to run on for next year's midterm elections. And polling just over the weekend shows that nationally, Democrats will be running with the political winds at their backs in terms of what will be the defining referendum against Donald Trump. The latest NBC News poll shows that voters would prefer Democrats to control Congress by 50 to 42%. I want to bring into our coverage MSNBC political analyst and pollster Cornell Belcher. He is serving as a pollster for N. Andrew Cuomo's mayoral campaign. Claire, Maia and John are still here. Cornell, I feel like what I would predict that you would say is what you always say, that Democrats can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but. Right. That's where your head usually goes. But the structural discontent with Trump feels like it's the chaos that Claire is articulating, but it's also nothing got cheaper. You are not just deporting the worst of the worst. And there's a sliver of MAGA that may like what they're seeing. Christine Oem says she watches the deportation brutality videos for fun. I think that represents a minority of the Trump coalition. I think you even hear some of the voices in the much ballyhooed manosphere saying, hey, leave the gardeners alone. I thought they were just going to empty the jails. Where do you see Trump's weakness in this moment in terms of how it could aid Democrats in elections?
- [87:01]
Jacob Soboroff
Well, look, I mean, if you look at the Washington Post poll that was just out, and not just look at the top line, Nicole, look deeper in there. And on the top line, you see, you know, his, you know, job approval is roughly around 59 or 60% disapproval, which is tremendous. But if you go underneath that and look at that moderate middle swath of the electorate, look at where independent voters are. Independent voters are over 70% disapproving of Trump's job. And overall, you know, on handling the economy, it's almost approaching 80% disapproval around Trump on handling the economic issues. So look, I think a lot of itand we talked about this before, midterms are largely a referendum on the incumbent on their party. And if you're a Republican and you're going into a midterm where prices are not going down, but they're rising, consumer confidence is cratering, and you have a president on the Top who has lost the middle of the electorate. You are looking at real problems. Now that said, I'm always going to call balls and strikes. Right. I'm not going to be partisan on this one here. Democrats have their issues and part of what we do too often is we try to overlearn from one night or one or two elections. And that's happening right now and it's happening on our network and it's happening on other networks. Networks. Look, I get the idea that, and we've talked about this before, I've never been in an election where the economy wasn't a top issue, but there's always changing issues underneath it. And we pretend that voters are one dimensional. Yes, affordability is a big issue. Yes, Democrats must talk about affordability. I would argue they've always been talking about affordability. But the problem with learning this lesson simply about affordability is Nicole, it's not. The problem that Democrats have is not solved by a message. Right, Correct. Simply, Democrats talking about affordability doesn't mean all of a sudden they're going to win elections. That is an oversimplification of things because voters are not sort of one dimensional. Look, there was a poll out the other day that showed back in 2013, you know, a 51% majority of Americans said they were extremely proud to be American. Today it's only 23 or 24% who are extremely proud to be American. There are bigger things at stake than simply affordability. Yes, affordability is a top issue. Yes, we must talk about affordability, but simply fix things or having a message about affordability that's not fundamentally changed some of the tactical issues and some of the structural issues that we've seen problematic with Democrats, particularly our ability to compete and talk and touch voters in all 50 states.
- [89:40]
Nicole Wallace
That's such an important note, not just for our coverage, but for hosts like myself, Corona Belcher, thank you for that. Claire McCaskill, Maya Wylie, John Hellman, all of you, thank you for being here. Much more. We've teed it all up. You got to come back tomorrow. We'll see what, what we're, see what we're looking at. Or tonight. Or tonight. Yes.
- [89:58]
Jacob Soboroff
What are you talking about, sleeping under the desk?
- [90:00]
Nicole Wallace
I think that actually is my spot under the desk. A quick break for us. We'll be right back. Former Vice President Dick Cheney was one of only two Republicans on the floor of the House of representatives on the one year anniversary of the deadly January 6th insurrection. The other was his daughter, then Congresswoman Liz Cheney. And that might tell you more about how far the Republican Party has descended than it will tell you about Dick Cheney. But it's as salient as anything to remember him by today. A dad, a Harris supporter, a defender of democracy, we learned Dick Cheney died today at 84. His family describes him as a, quote, noble giant of a man. His detractors certainly have their reasons. But in 2024, he was with her. That does it for us. Thank you for letting us into your homes today. We are grateful. I'll be back in an hour alongside my friend and colleague Rachel Maddow for MSNBC's special election coverage. Our coverage continues at the top of the hour with Ari Melber and Jen Psaki picking up the coverage. Don't go anywhere.
- [91:13]
Jacob Soboroff
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