← Deadline: White House
Deadline: White House
"The thing about snake oil"
00:42:55
Nicolle Wallace on Donald Trump's sagging approval numbers almost a year into his second term.
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- [00:00]
John Heilman
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- [00:30]
Claire McCaskill
Home to the Rachel Maddow Morning Joe Morning Joe, the Briefing with Jen Psaki and more Voices you know and trust. Ms. Now is your source for news, opinion and the world. Learn more at Ms. Now.
- [00:50]
Rav
I'm the Tariff King and the Tariff.
- [00:51]
John Heilman
King has done a great job.
- [00:53]
Rav
And I hope we win the Supreme Court case. Because if we don't, be ashamed for our country, be ashamed. We have a great, safe, beautiful country now.
- [01:03]
John Heilman
We're doing better than we've ever done.
- [01:07]
Nicole
Hi again, everybody. It's five o' clock in New York. So here's the thing about snake oil and a fundamental truth understood by those who seek to sell it eventually. Ultimately, people catch on when the product inevitably fails to produce the promised result. The salesman's con collapses in on itself spectacularly, and the gig is up. The only hope for the snake oil salesman is to get out of town before his customers wise up to him. For Donald Trump, though, there's really nowhere to go. There's nowhere to hide. This afternoon, he has to sit there and watch as the Americans he lied to and swindled with false promises of a vibrant economy and disentanglements from foreign conflicts increasingly come to understand a simple truth about Donald Trump. He was lying about everything. They got played. Trump's overall approval rating in a new AP NORC poll merely scratches the surface. 19 points underwater overall, plus that number on the lower right. Two thirds of independents now disapprove of Donald Trump on his handling of immigration. More specifically, that Same poll shows 61% of all Americans disapprove of Donald Trump on immigration. And look at the red that says Republicans. Only 76% of the Republicans in Trump's own party approve of him. For him, that is a very low number, an alarming one. It goes on. 61% disapprove of how he's handling foreign policy. That number is 57% on Venezuela. On the economy, 37% of Americans are into what Trump is doing. Perhaps his failure on manufacturing figures into that. The Washington Post reports this that manufacturing employment has declined every single month since the self proclaimed tariff king proclaimed Liberation day, culminating in 72,000 fewer jobs in U.S. factories. Since that moment in April, quote, the trade measures that the president said would spur manufacturing have instead hampered it, according to most mainstream economists. That's because roughly half of US Imports are intermediate goods that American companies use to make finished products, like aluminum that's shaped into soup cans or circuit boards that are inserted into computers. So while tariffs have protected American manufacturers such as steel mills from foreign competition, they have raised costs for many others. Auto and auto parts employment, for example, has dipped by about 20,000 jobs since April. Not to mention, the New York Times reports, quote, the price of beef has risen 16.4% over the last year. The price of coffee is up a whopping 19.8%. The price of lettuce is up 7.3%. Frozen fish is up 8.6%. As Donald Trump's administration urges Americans to eat this, a, quote, piece of chicken, a piece of broccoli, a corn tortilla and one other thing so far unnamed, a separate CNN poll finds this, quote, more than two thirds of respondents said Trump is out of touch with the problems facing ordinary people, while only 35% of Americans say they are, quote, proud to have Donald Trump as their president. We can call it buyer's remorse, perhaps for those who purchased vats of snake oil just one year ago. It's where we begin the hour with some of our favorite experts and friends. PAC News senior political columnist and national affairs analyst John Heilman is here. Also joining us, political analyst former Senator Claire McCaskill. Still with us with me at the table, host of Fast Politics, New York Times contributing opinion writer and political analyst Molly Zhang. Fast is here. And the host of Politics Nation, the president of the National Action Network, the Reverend Al Sharpton's here, John Heilman, I start with you. How do you see this moment?
- [04:54]
John Heilman
Well, I mean, Nicole, you mean we'll restrict ourselves to the president's political standing here? The broader moment, obviously, is part of that. If you're talking about the broader moments, maybe talking about something much more ugly.
- [05:06]
Nicole
Why don't you go broad and end with the president's standing? How's that?
- [05:11]
John Heilman
Okay. Shit show. I think it's the word you're looking for. Sorry, is anybody cursed on the show so far today?
- [05:16]
Nicole
I feel like it's, yeah, you're second. You're second. I beat you. But you weren't here in the last hour, so you're the first at 5.
- [05:22]
John Heilman
I can't hear a word you're saying. So let's see if I can fix that. I've lost you in my ear.
- [05:27]
Nicole
Okay, we'll fix John Hyland.
- [05:30]
John Heilman
Okay, you're back now. Thank you.
- [05:31]
Nicole
Okay, go ahead.
- [05:33]
John Heilman
The broader moment is like a moment of incredible peril and outrage and upset in the country. And I do think it is intimately connected to the president's state of political peril. You went through some of the polling there. It's worth saying that the moment when the lines cross on immigration for Trump, where he went underwater was in June of last year, when he deployed the national, called in the National Guard and deployed part of the American military to Los Angeles. The occupation of American cities is unpopular broadly across the board. It was unpopular when he first did it in LA. It got more unpopular when he moved to Washington, D.C. it got more unpopular when he tried to take Chicago. And now it's reaching a nadir in terms of its popularity, particularly among these crucial voting segments, not just among Democrats. You just pointed out a quarter of Republicans don't like these policies. And this vast number of independents, which, as we know, are going to be the ones who make the difference in the midterm elections and in the 2028 elections, they have turned against this policy. America does not want to see an occupying force of paramilitary troops in any American city, let alone their own cities. You could do specific polling to those cities that had been occupied for periods of time over the course of the last seven months. The numbers would be even worse for Trump across the board, not just with Democrats, but pronouncedly with independents and even with a lot of Republicans. And so, I mean, for me, the question that we keep. People ask this question all the time. Does Trump understand how unpopular all this is? I don't know that because there are people in his ear, like Stephen Miller, who I think can read a poll, but who doesn't care because he thinks he is on a mission from God. I think everyone, the political operation of the White House can't read a poll, and they wish that the President would listen to, to the polls and listen to the American people and listen to them, rather than listening to Stephen Miller and to his own instincts. But it raises the larger question of if he's doing, particularly doing this thing, this thing that relates to the immigration, crime, paramilitary occupation of American cities with military force thing, and it's demonstrably over a sustained period of time in all Poland polls, Democratic polls, independent polls, news media polls, the White House's own internal polls. But it's wildly unpopular, raises the question of why he's doing it because it's not like he's doing this for political benefit in the way that we normally understand political benefit, that is popularity. He's doing it for some other reason. And I think that opens up a whole larger discussion as we hear him increasingly saying things like maybe we shouldn't have an election in 2020. As he said the other day, Caroline Levitt said it was a joke, not very funny to me or to anybody else. And it makes you. It has always been the case, this flirting with the Insurrection act and talking about whether he should have deployed the National Guard in 2020, all of it. He's not very subtle. I'll say it again for the 9,000 times, projection or confession? And in these cases, I think it's more confession than projection. It is what Trump is thinking about right now. He's doing the stuff he wants to do. He's making himself richer. He's hanging out and making a lot of really rich people happy. But he's way out of touch with the American people. And I think he has some sense that he is. Even as he goes along with Stephen Miller on the immigration policies, I think he understands the political peril of it all, which is why he's starting to do things that set the stage for something very ominous in terms of the 2026 elections and beyond.
- [09:19]
Nicole
Rav, how do you see the moment?
- [09:20]
Rav
I think that when you look at someone who makes it by conning the public, that is very disturbing. What is more disturbing is I think that he has conned himself into believing that whatever I do, they will follow me. And I think his narcissism has blinded him to the fact that he is not only hurting the people that supported him, he's oblivious to the ramifications. And of late, I began to believe that he really believes some of the stuff he's saying, which is even more dangerous than the stuff he's saying and stuff he's doing.
- [10:00]
Nicole
Like why?
- [10:01]
Rav
Like, I think he really believes that he's saving us from all these foreign invaders that are not there. And he's, he's deluded himself in a way that I think is going to lead to the downfall of his administration. Like, for example, the joke about maybe we shouldn't have an election. He's not going to be in the election, the next election anyway.
- [10:24]
Nicole
He's not going to be on a ballot ever again.
- [10:26]
Rav
So what is he talking about?
- [10:27]
Nicole
And what difference does it make?
- [10:28]
Rav
So you're dealing with someone that you have to begin to question, is he dealing with reality? And then you can tell the American people that you can look at a video of a policeman with a smartphone in his hand, a gun in the other hand. Non provoked. He wasn't threatened. He was filming himself. Non provoked. Kills a woman. And he says, I'm telling you, that's not what you're looking at. So you're dealing with someone, I think, that is no longer dealing with reality. And I think that the people that supported him are beginning to say, my reality has gotten worse and this guy doesn't even understand it. He'd do better if he would say that I understand is not doing as well as I thought. We're working through it. He's acting like you're. It doesn't exist. You're complaining about nothing. You're doing better even though your groceries are going up. No, they're not. Well, the, the tariffs are working even though they're not. He's telling you that you are misleading yourself about your own reality. And people are saying there's something wrong here.
- [11:31]
Nicole
I want to pick up on this idea that he's detached from reality. I mean, I, I played the sound in the last week. This last two weeks have felt like 11 years. So I don't know if it was this week or last week, but of him when he made that threat or he made that comment that his supporters would still be behind him if he shot and killed someone on Fifth Avenue. He was a different person when he said that. That was, I think, early 2016. So this detachment from reality, I think has many layers. One of it is whatever you thought of the people around him in Trump 1.0. And I didn't think much of the people that were around him for staying there while he did the things that he did. There were people that could put polls or real news in front of him when he walks out there or sort of, you know, whatever it is he does, shuffles out there and then slumps in a chair and often falls asleep. All he says is what someone on the buffet line, at the omelette line at Mar a Lago said to him.
- [12:25]
Molly Zhang
Country's hot.
- [12:26]
Nicole
You know, Country's hot. I mean, he sounds like a caricature of someone who is, you know, just surrounded by his own entourage. And I wonder what you think of the quality of information in front of him.
- [12:40]
Molly Zhang
Well, that's such a good point. And I wanna go back to this polling, cuz why I think it's relevant is that after the killing of Renee Good, right? I mean, the shot in the head three times. Okay. And then when the EMS came, she actually had a pulse. We saw that in the Times today. So that's after that this administration did a full court press to defend themselves and malign her. And we saw so many people in this administration get out there on television, from the vice president to Stephen Miller to Tom Holman, Everyone was out there trying to sell this. Now we see these polls and what do these polls say? People were not buying it.
- [13:22]
Nicole
Well, let me just dig a little deeper on what you're saying. Trump's role in that was to smear her, but to also try to persuade four New York Times journalists to see it as he saw summons in an aide and plays the video and says, don't you see what I see? So, I mean, he has an elaborate role in smearing her and telling the lie, but he also seems to still want to exist in this world where he can convince reporters of something that is. I mean, the Times has had the most sort of evidence based analysis of the video angles that have absolutely disproven every lie they've told about. Good.
- [13:58]
Molly Zhang
Yeah. And they really did think, or at least it seemed as if they thought, that if they got out there fast and they kept saying it and repeated it on all the outlets that somehow that would prove their case. And what we've seen from this polling is that it did not in fact prove their case.
- [14:14]
Nicole
One of the problems too, Claire, is that the officer. We learned today that the officer who shot and killed Renee Nicole Goode is the officer heard on, I believe it's his own cell phone video calling her. The F word ending and ing and the B word rhyming, with which there's some witness testimony today from a field hearing where a different ICE officer says, that's why we killed that lesbian bitch. Here is the face of protest in America right now. It doesn't look like the smears or the caricature. This is a gentleman in Minneapolis. Do we have this control room? Oh, I want to actually. Give me a second to find this, Claire. It's a gentleman. I played him. Tim Miller flagged it. He's. Oh, here it is. Here it is.
- [15:05]
Rav
This is nuts. This is.
- [15:08]
John Heilman
Yeah. And you're right in the middle of this.
- [15:11]
Rav
What the is going on, dude? This is insane.
- [15:14]
John Heilman
Have you ever gone out to these sort of things before? Never. Never. I've never protested in my life. My brother. My brother's here. He does it all the time. I've never. I got.
- [15:22]
Rav
Dude, I.
- [15:23]
John Heilman
Like I said, I'm far enough away, but close enough. And I sit in my cushy house and look at, get mad and I, yeah, you know, I, my daughter was part of it. We keep going down to Whipple every night now and we're protesting down there. My wife is here, probably way back there because she doesn't want to be part of the tear gas. I think that they, I think that they've, I think they're just trying to scare people and you know, but, but, but why shoot people? My. No, you know what really pisses me off is the fact that they detain people, cuff them and then still beat the out of them.
- [15:58]
Nicole
It is, we've used up all of our swear words. It's just a real WTF moment that is breaking through. What people can see with their own eyes is all the evidence they need that Trump is lying.
- [16:10]
Claire McCaskill
I have never been. There's so many times during my life that I cuss cell phones mostly around my grandchildren because I see how co opted they are by their screenshots. But I think about back when I was the elected DA in Kansas City and how there were no cameras on everybody's hands. There was no evidence that could be gone through. Like the New York Times has matching up time wise a number of different angles of all the different video that was taken of that horrible moment when they murdered that woman. And that's a good thing. And we're going to keep seeing these images. And by the way, these images are way more powerful than any elected official going off with really hot rhetoric about abolish ICE or any of that. These videos of masked men beating people up, shoving elected officials aside, acting, cussing people they've just shot in the face, that is really, really powerful, Stu. And anybody who's ever run a campaign will tell you that real video, real time video of your opponent or any other event that is persuasive is the most powerful thing you can have. So this is the problem that Stephen Miller has. This is the problem that Kristi Noem has. This is the problem that Donald Trump has. America is seeing this and they don't like what they see. And I want to just underline this point and everybody is probably going to get sick of me saying this between now and November of this year and now November of 2028. Please remember these independent voters that have dropped like a rock in terms of approval for Donald Trump. That is what makes majorities, that's what turns this around. I love the base of our party, they're great. But it is in fact those independent voters that hold the key to the kingdom to stop this nonsense and get back to a country that we can be proud of again. And so talking to those independent voters and paying attention to those independent voters, way more important than mouthing off some really, you know, kill the rich or abolish ICE or any of that doesn't help with the independent voters stay grounded on the reality that they're seeing in front of their faces, whether it's their meat prices or whether it's this kind of thuggery going on in the United States of America.
- [18:42]
Nicole
I want to pick that up with the rest of the panel. I have to sneak in a break before I do that. Also ahead for us, how Trump's plunging poll numbers have turned him into an a political albatross around the necks of Republicans running in the two elections, clarinet 26 and 28. New data shows the real world impact of Donald Trump's deep and plunging unpopularity ahead of those midterms. Also ahead for a president who reportedly hates to be mocked and laughed at. Donald Trump seems to be setting himself up for the jokes and for ridicule by strong arming his way into someone else's Nobel medal for a peace prize he didn't win. We'll show you how that embarrassing episode played on late night as Trump fills his gilded trophy case later in the hour. Edlin Whitehouse continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere. When I need to impress someone with.
- [19:37]
Claire McCaskill
A gift, I go straight to 1-800-FLOWERS.
- [19:39]
Nicole
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- [20:06]
John Heilman
As President Trump continues implementing his ambitious agenda. Follow along with the MSNow newsletter Project 47. You'll get weekly updates sent straight to your inbox with expert analysis on the administration's latest actions and how they're affecting the American people.
- [20:23]
Nicole
The American people are basically telling the president that they are not okay with any of this.
- [20:27]
John Heilman
Sign up for the Project 47 newsletter at Ms. Now. Project 47.
- [20:37]
Nicole
One agent took a photo of me on a cell phone and showed it to the other two laughing. Another made demeaning comments about my appearance about two minutes into the ride, one agent said, quote, you guys gotta stop obstructing us. That's why this lesbian bitch is dead. Speaking of Renee Goode, when I was inside my cell, I heard wailing, screaming, crying, begging, and pleading from women, men, and children. Alongside that visceral anguish was the small talk, banter, and laughter from the federal agents outside our cells, clearly desensitized to the deep and audible pain right in front of their eyes. It's worth mentioning that two other people in my cell with me that day were Marine Corps veterans, brave women who said they had gotten arrested for the same reason they wanted to join the Marines, to protect their fellow countrymen. We're back. I mean, we're talking about credibility. This is a witness. This is a victim of ICE arrests and detainment.
- [21:40]
Molly Zhang
Yeah, and it's. We were just talking in the break, and you were saying that in your feed is just all ICE videos. And that's the thing that's sort of beguiling about this is they do really think that these videos are good for them, that these ICE agents think that the more videos they make, the better off they are. And we know from this polling and from what we've seen that they're actually. That this stuff is horrific and that Americans don't like it. They don't want it, and they don't want troops occupying their cities.
- [22:10]
Nicole
You know, I find a way to date myself every day these days, but when I worked in politics, I worked for a Republican president who sought to do something on comprehensive immigration reform. And so we looked at all aspects of this. There is zero support in the country for interior enforcement. There's a lot of support for a sane position at the border. So no one could have looked anywhere and thought, this is what people wanted. And I know people say, well, they wanted mass deportations. There's not a big market for this. And they're putting out videos for an increasingly small, maybe increasingly radical, but increasingly small portion of Americans, which also hurts his overall popularity. What do you make of the. Of the opportunity on the other side for Democrats to sort of seize not just the center and the moral center, but the issue of immigration from Republicans.
- [23:03]
Rav
I think the Democrats can seize it with a real humane immigration policy that does not interfere and invade American neighborhoods. Let's look at the fact that where Renee Good was killed was a out of Outborough kind. We'd say Alberta, New York. But in the outskirts of Minnesota, of Minneapolis, there was not an area dominated by people that you would think were immigrants. And so to have these Invasions consistently go in is an opportunity for Democrats to say, wait a minute, we want to have a same policy to block those that should not be coming in, or even those that are doing things, criminal or wrong, that are in. But we are not after American people. When you start calling American citizens names and when you start saying to them that you just don't have any rights that we are bound to respect, then you're losing the argument, because now the war is not against others. It's against the very people that empowered you in the first place. And I think the fact that they seem to have lost any kind of weighing of that and insensitivity of that is what's killing them in the polls and will continue to kill them in the midterm elections going forward if they don't change. Because they're not listening to their own base, they're attacking their own base.
- [24:32]
Nicole
Yeah. I mean, Claire, this is this inverse, right? So Trump rises in Republican politics in 2015 and 16 as almost like a middle finger to the elites. Trump is now completely hostage to the most extreme elites. I don't even want to call it the right, but sort of on the extreme, on the far, like the alt right, you know, like, people like Bannon now disagrees with him. So he's somewhere on the other side of Bannon, if you can get your brain around that. And only elite voices. They're not like people showing. They're not farmers showing up at the White House and say, do what you're doing. They're not restaurant owners showing up at the White House and say, do what you're doing. They're not hotel owners showing up and saying, do what you're doing. There are not small business owners showing up at Donald Trump's small business events, which he doesn't even have anymore, and saying, do what you're doing. There is no constituency for this other than sort of radicalized online Internet warriors. Yeah.
- [25:25]
Claire McCaskill
And Stephen Miller, who.
- [25:28]
Nicole
Yeah. Whatever category we put him in. Yeah.
- [25:30]
Claire McCaskill
You know, and by the way, we should all remember how he was kept at arm's length in the first administration. He was there, but a lot of people kept him away from the inner circle. He is now it. He is it. And I don't know how he managed this, but clearly he is the one driving all of this policy. And, you know, you're right, Nicole, that the interesting thing about this is that if you look at the business community, for example, there are businesses now in Minneapolis that are saying, don't come in here. If you're ice Your business is not welcome here. There are businesses across this country that have dealt with temporary workers, seasonal workers for years. Whether it's Trump's base in ag or Trump's base in the hospitality industry. These people just need to get a voice, get a backbone, stand up and say out loud, Trump could easily be frightened if some of the elites he's kowtowing to found it somewhere in their spine. I would use another anatomical. But, you know, since somebody's already cussed in this, I'm not going to use an anatomical reference.
- [26:41]
Nicole
I'm in so much trouble.
- [26:42]
Claire McCaskill
I'm in so much trouble to what these businessmen should do. They should get a set and stand up to this guy because they've got the power. He cares more about them. And by the way, the polling I love the most is the polling on. He cares about people like us. That also has dropped like a rock. They are now figuring out. He doesn't care about them. He cares about oil in Venezuela, he cares about tech billionaires. He cares about cutting taxes for the wealthy and he cares about rare minerals in Greenland. And he doesn't care about them.
- [27:15]
Nicole
Yeah, I mean, John Howman, the thing he has going for him strategically is there's so much muck. I'm increasingly struggling with the vocabulary for this news cycle. But on Greenland, if you can stop for an hour, right, and do an hour on Greenland, you understand that we already have Greenland militarily, we already have access to Greenland. Greenland is our friend. Greenland is our NATO. Greenland is a Danish territory. Denmark is one of our best and longest and truest allies. So there's only the grift. There is no Greenland play for US national security. There is no America first case to make for taking Greenland from ourselves. We're already there. And I wonder what you make of the fact that there's no one around him that seems capable of either slowing it down, even when it drags Trump down. And there's no one that seems to be willing. I mean, it doesn't seem like they have the kind of people, whether it was Mark Meadows or Reince Priebus or John Kelly or I don't know what Jared and Ivanka did, but there's no one that seems to be able to get in front of him and say, this is really bleeping stupid.
- [28:30]
John Heilman
Well, first of all, I'd like to just. My friend, Claire McCaskill. Claire, if you're going to talk about some who. Who said a dirty word on the air, don't say somebody said a dirty. Well, you know, full well, who said dirty word on the air? I want credit where credit is due. I give you credit when you talk about people needing to sack up. You know, just give me the credit I deserve.
- [28:50]
Claire McCaskill
Well, you know, I didn't, I didn't recognize you with that very attractive new thing over your lip. So you were in.
- [28:56]
Nicole
Yeah, you know, I was going to let that slide. You know, let's deal with that.
- [29:04]
Molly Zhang
Halloween.
- [29:05]
Nicole
What is, what is that about? Is it a new birthday?
- [29:08]
John Heilman
I just haven't shaved for a while. Okay. I was away from.
- [29:11]
Nicole
You got to the rest of your face. I mean.
- [29:14]
John Heilman
No, it's just because the rest of my face doesn't grow hair. It's like you just say. It's all just. It's just like I'm this. I'm just. I'm like I'm. I'm a prepubescent on the cheeks and like. And Groucho marks on the upper lip. I don't know.
- [29:24]
Rav
Who knows?
- [29:25]
Nicole
Oh, I love you also.
- [29:27]
Molly Zhang
Yeah.
- [29:28]
John Heilman
Explain it. But here's what I'd say. Claire, who I will give credit to, you know, pointed to Steven Miller. And, and we've said this before, but it's worth saying again, this is by design. The things you're talking about, Nicole, about, you know, whether there are the people. There used to be people around him, now there aren't people around him. It's not like an accident. It's not like those people that the administration did four years where, where he was determined, along with the people who were loyal to him through January 6th, every day thereafter, who never left his side, who never wavered. Stephen Miller primarily among them. And you can say whatever you want to say about Steve Miller. He has the power. He is the most powerful person in the White House, more powerful than the chief of staff, more powerful than, I think, any of the Cabinet secretaries. The reporting from inside the White House is that he has his fingers in every important area of policy, domestic and foreign. If you go back and look at Signal Gate, he's on those. He's on those text messages, too. He's everywhere. He plays the role in this White House that a normal chief of staff has played in the past. And he has Trump's number. And I think the reality of how much influence he has. This is tying up a bunch of different people's comments here. Reb talked about earlier about Trump being disconnected from reality. He's very connected to Stephen Miller's reality. And Stephen Miller, I think there's a lot of people who are driving Trump towards the Grift But Stephen Miller is driving Trump towards the cruel and the stupid. And he does it kind of repeatedly, and he does it very, very effectively. And I will tell you when, again, I go back to last summer, when you realize, to Rev's point, that he was disconnected from our reality here on Earth 1 and was connected not just even to Earth 2, but to Earth Miller, like whatever that is. Earth 3 was when he sat down with Terry Moran and Terry Moran and he got into the longest discussion in the history of the world about whether or not Kilmar Abreu Garcia actually had something tattooed on his hands that had been in a Photoshopped picture, a gang tattoo that they had put out in a Photoshop here, a clearly Photoshopped picture. No one disputed it, and Trump wouldn't let it go. He kept arguing with Terry Moran. Terry Moran wanted to get off the subject, and Trump wouldn't let it go. It goes on and on and on. And the only conclusion you could get from that was that he just believed it. He believed that that tattoo really existed. And that is the influence of people like Stephen Miller. Stephen Miller primarily, but other people around him, they are feeding Trump misinformation about the ICE raids, about the people the ICE raids are victimizing, about what America thinks about immigration. Trump has always been prone to believing the notion that polls that he was inclined to disagreement, disagree with are fake. And when the most powerful person in the White House, the ultimate loyalist and the most ideological person around Trump, is constantly telling him, no, sir, these numbers are fake, The American people are with you. We have to keep doing this Trump, it reinforces his instincts, and that's where you get him into this place where he's doing things that are not serving anyone's interests, including his own politically, but they are serving one person's interest, and that's Steve Miller's.
- [32:39]
Nicole
Yeah, it gets back to where we started, sort of the poor quality, the information that gets to him in the absence of anything of better quality. When we come back, all of this, all this bad polling, all this bad information has made Donald Trump a real political drag on his own party. For Democrats, there's no reason for hopes of a really good outcome next November. We'll show you that evidence on the other side of the break.
- [33:10]
John Heilman
Start your day with the MSNow Daily Newsletter. Each morning, read sharp insights from the voices you trust. Catch standout moments from your favorite shows.
- [33:19]
Nicole
The second Trump administration has gone to unprecedented lengths to radically transform America.
- [33:24]
John Heilman
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- [33:32]
Rav
It's everything you love about Ms. Now.
- [33:34]
John Heilman
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- [33:41]
Nicole
Whether he believes his poll numbers are bad or not, they are so bad that they are now dragging down his political party. Case in point, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report is out with its latest batch of race projections, which has Democrats well positioned to take back the House. The group has shifted 18 House races, all in the Democrats direction, including four races from lean Republican to toss up, as well as three races have moved from toss up to lean Democrat. It is a staggering political development and assessment when you consider the pressure campaign carried out by the Trump administration for so much of 2025 to bully Republican state legislatures to redraw their congressional maps to avoid the wrath of voters, to avoid voters at all. We're back with John, Claire, Molly and the Rev. Al Claire. If you promise to keep it clean and not make fun of John's facial hair, I'll send this over to you.
- [34:36]
Claire McCaskill
Yeah, I think the Democrats are in a really good position. I mean, it's always hard because you have to keep the base really motivated, which I think they are right now. As we've seen in these elections, you also have to make sure that you are communicating to as wide audience as possible. Remember, all of these districts that are in play are districts that are capable of electing either a Republican or a Democrat. We're not looking at races that are in bright blue places and bright red places. We're looking at races that are in places that could in fact go either way. But this polling, the polling numbers, especially the economy and by the way, the tariff stuff, if he tries to send a check to everybody for $2,000, I don't think those voters that are in play are going to fall for that. His voters may really like it, but those that are in play, they're going to see it for what it is. Wait, you charge us more for coffee because you put tariffs on it and then you're going to give us a check for $2,000 around an election and think we're going to fall for that? I just don't think that's going to work. I think it reeks of desperation on their part if that's something he actually tries to do. And I do think some of the Republicans in Congress, from my conversations I'm having, are beginning to freak out. The Greenland stuff, the mass thuggery, the really difficult videos that people are seeing, all of that, especially the cost of healthcare, is adding up to a very Bad year for Republicans.
- [36:08]
Nicole
Yeah. I mean, the only thing I'd say about the checks is I hope for any American family that's struggling that he does send them a check for 2,000, 5,000, $10,000. But he's in a bigger hole than that, I guess, is what I would say. And I think I've drank more than $2,000 of coffee in 2026 alone. When we come back, more than $2,000 worth of coffee. And it's not fancy coffee. It's like it's. Yeah, anything I can get a gas station. When we come back, Trump's trophy case and shiny golden medals he never actually won is getting larger and larger. It's not just the Nobel Peace Prize medal he took possession of yesterday without winning the Nobel Peace Prize, when Venezuela's opposition leader visited the White House and gave it to him. We'll show you what Jimmy Kimmel had to say about all of that after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.
- [37:01]
Rav
I heard they have a little surprise. Ooh, that looks nice. I hope it's the stick and not just a shirt. That stick looks beautiful.
- [37:07]
John Heilman
That looks beautiful.
- [37:09]
Rav
Maybe I get both.
- [37:10]
Nicole
Who the hell knows?
- [37:10]
John Heilman
I'm president. I'll just take them.
- [37:15]
Nicole
Sounds a little bit like somebody didn't get enough gold leaf in his stocking or under the Christmas tree this year. Donald Trump with Stanley cup winners the Florida Panthers with a very on brand demand to just take a shiny gold hockey stick. The incident came mere minutes after Donald Trump strong armed Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Cornea Machado into presenting him with her golden Nobel Peace Prize medal in hopes of eventually getting Donald Trump's help in restoring democracy to Venezuela. We're a long way from that. She got a gift bag in exchange. All of this begs the question, just how many gilded awards and prizes would it take to finally satisfy Donald Trump, make this all go away? It's a question Jimmy Kimmel is doing his best to answer. Take a look.
- [38:02]
Rav
Mr. President, I have an offer I think you're going to find difficult to refuse. If you, and only if, you agree to pull ice out of Minneapolis and put them back at the borders where they belong, I am prepared to offer you one of the following trophies that I have been honored with over the years. First off, thank you, Jeremy. The Daytime Emmy I won for best game show host in 1999. That could be yours. Or perhaps you would prefer my Cleo Award for my work selling crap to people, or my Webby Award, the most prestigious award the Internet can give. Or my writer's Guild Award. This is a good one. You can see it looks nice. Or best of all, I'm willing to hand over my 2015 Soul Train Award for White Person of the Year. You do this, the choice is yours.
- [38:58]
Nicole
I mean, it's a joke, but it's all. He clearly wants. Other people's stuff.
- [39:03]
Molly Zhang
Yeah. I mean, it was such a disappointing moment when she went in there with that Nobel Peace Prize and came out with a bag of Trump, you know, a shopping bag branded with the Trump name on it. And it says more almost about us as where we are in a country than anything else. And look, this is a desperate person trying to get to come back into leadership in her country. And I don't think that Trump is going to do that for her.
- [39:34]
Nicole
But it is sort of back to where we started. There's something childlike about his fetish for prizes and trophies and awards. He put his face on fake Time magazine covers and put him in his office. I mean, this is a through line.
- [39:47]
Rav
No, I think we're back where we started at the beginning. There's something missing here, because who wants an object that reminds you that the people that decide the prize rejected you? I mean, any normal person would say, I don't want to be putting up something that I will have to explain. The one that really won by merit had to give it to me. How do you celebrate that unless you are that insecure and that away from reality, that I just want the shiny object because it makes me feel like I'm secure, I'm included. I mean, it just really doesn't make sense. It's a symbol of. The Nobel Committee rejected him. That's what it says. And for the winner to give it to him, I mean, it makes no sense at all other than somebody who's no longer really in control of their own emotions and where and where they're going. It's insane who does that. And I think that. That my concern is that if he is that easily satisfied, what are the people around him manipulating him to do? That puts us all at risk. If all you got to do is give him a phony award and move things around like that, what are they guiding him into? And that's where the American people has to show real concern. And I think they will in the midterm elections.
- [41:13]
Nicole
Yeah. I mean, you talked Heilman about Stephen Miller. I mean, Vladimir Putin's been alone in a room with him, too. What shiny thing did he give him?
- [41:22]
John Heilman
I have no idea. But I'll tell you this. I'm going to volunteer Claire's. That cake back there under Claire Garcar's cake stand, I will. I will give Donald Trump that cake, that slice of cake. I bet Claire might even go along with me on the lifetime supply thing. Lifetime supply. A cake of Claire's cake and a lifetime supply of Big Macs if he will pull ice out of Minneapolis. In fact, I would probably throw in fries, too, if he would just.
- [41:50]
Claire McCaskill
I'm not. I'm not baking for that jerk. I'm not baking for.
- [41:53]
Nicole
I think it has to be gold, though. It has to be gilded gold.
- [41:57]
John Heilman
Cake looks gold.
- [41:58]
Claire McCaskill
Cake looks perfectly gold.
- [41:59]
John Heilman
It looks very gold to me. It's shimmery. It's like the thing in Pulp Fiction, like, that shines in the case. You know, I don't even know what that is. It's magical.
- [42:07]
Nicole
I think it has to be gold, Claire, and I think it has to be an adornment. But, you know, on a serious level, the thing with the Florida Panthers was him trying to vibe with young athletes who prevailed in their sport. But it has an echo to Access Hollywood. When you're famous, you can just take it. They let you. Yeah.
- [42:29]
Claire McCaskill
And you know, to be serious for a minute, this all happened on the same day that he pardoned another group of people. This is a man who legitimately, out of one side of his mouth, says everyone needs to respect law enforcement, even if they're masked and even if they're abusing American citizens. You got to respect law enforcement. But then he turns around and performs the ultimate act of disrespect, which is pardoning people that law enforcement had worked very hard to find guilty of serious crimes. So he's very insecure, but he's doing really, really serious damage.
- [43:05]
Nicole
Claire McCaskill, John Heilman, Molly Dongfast, the Revenue Sharpton. Thank you so much for having this conversation with us. When we come back, as Claire's discussing some new pardons and commutations to tell you about from Donald Trump, including one for a convicted fraudster whose sentence he commuted in his first term, only to have her go on and commit more crimes. We'll bring you that reporting next. To be filed under shocking but not surprising or a scandal for anybody else. Donald Trump has issued a rash of pardons benefiting his political allies and supporters. Reporting in the New York Times reveals that one of the lucky recipients convicted of fraud has already been freed by Donald Trump at the end of his first term as president in 2021 when he commuted her sentence. Rather than taking advantage of mercy or a second chance, she returned to crime. She and her brother were convicted in 2024 in an unrelated fraud. But, but but this week Donald Trump pardoned both siblings. The others in this latest batch of clemency include a man whose daughter had given millions of dollars to a Trump backed super pac, former governor of Puerto Rico, and a former FBI agent, all of whom had pleaded guilty in a political corruption case. We'll stay on top of that one more break. We'll be right back. We're super excited about this. My guest on the newest episode of the Best People podcast is a familiar face to all of you, the viewers of this show. Oliver Darcy covers all things media, including the toxic media environment of disinformation and the dangers it poses to our democracy and what happens to viewers who consume a steady diet of right wing media. Premium subscribers can listen to our conversation starting tonight and the episode will be out for everybody on Monday. Thank you so much for letting us into your homes all week. We are grateful.
- [45:11]
Claire McCaskill
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