← Deadline: White House
Deadline: White House
"Trump's flip-flopping priorities"
00:40:57
When it comes to birthright citizenship, Trump's interest has always been clear -- and his loss today at the hands of a majority conservative Supreme Court is a big one.
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- [00:00]
Tim Miller
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- [00:20]
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- [01:06]
Nicole Wallace
Today's ruling offers reassurance that their children's rights remain protected. But this decision must also remind us that protecting constitutional rights requires constant vigilance. Hi again, everyone. It's now five o' clock in the East. Constant vigilance is right, because in Donald Trump's America, none of us can afford to be complacent. In many instances, Donald Trump's priorities may seem to flip and flop, and he may seem to snooze through some of them. First he's for something, then he doesn't care, then he seems to abandon it altogether. But when it came to birthright citizenship and ending it, Trump's interest in this issue was clear and consistent. It was always something he felt very strongly about, sort of like tariffs. The executive order that today's Supreme Court ruling weighed in on was one he signed on the first day of his second term as president. Trump even showed up for oral arguments in this case back in April, becoming the first sitting president of the United States of America to do that. So his loss today at the hands of a majority conservative Supreme Court, any of the members he picked is a big one. But as we discussed over the last hour, the ruling was actually closer than it looks. Justice Brett Kavanaugh agreed with the majority that Trump's executive order was illegal yet he dissented in part and seemed to give Congress an instruction or invitation to keep fighting this issue. Donald Trump seized on that perceived invitation and called on Congress to act immediately. Republican Senator Eric Schmidt of Missouri responded, posting this on social media. Quote, justice Kavanaugh may have left Congress a door. I'm filing legislation to walk through it. Senator Schmidt's Senate colleague, Democrat Alex Padilla, underscored the need to keep fighting in a powerful response. Quote, the Constitution could not be clearer in if you are born in the United States, you are a citizen of the United States. Period. No ambiguity. While there is nothing surprising about Donald Trump's efforts to erode birthright citizenship and disregard laws he does not like, today's decision reaffirms over a century of legal precedent protecting this fundamental constitutional right. This is personal. I'm a proud son of immigrants. I was born in the United States. I'm a proud citizen of the United States with freedom to pursue the American dream. While we celebrate this ruling today, we cannot rest, because this is certainly not the end of Trump's attacks on our Constitution, on our democracy, and the notion of what it means to be American. As Americans, we will continue to organize, vote, legislate, and litigate because our country depends on it. Not giving up in the fight to protect our Constitution is where we begin the hour with Democratic Senator Alex Padilla of California. Also joining me for the hour, my friend, political analyst, host of the Bulwark podcast, Tim Miller is here. Senator, I start with you. Your reaction first to the decision.
- [04:08]
Senator Alex Padilla
Hi, Nicole. Well, I'll tell you what I've heard from a lot of folks from California to Washington and everywhere in between. What does it say that we were waiting with bated breath for the Supreme Court to uphold the Constitution? Right. We were praying for this outcome, but preparing for. For some devastating news, because that's the times that we're living in. Whether it's a Supreme Court that will act in ways that we can't understand, or Donald Trump and the next thing that will come out of his mouth. We know that the debate doesn't end here. We want a big case at the Supreme Court today, and that deserves to be celebrated, especially in light of the Fourth of July coming up at the end of the week. But as so many of us are saying, we know the work's not over. Trump will continue to press this issue. He'll continue to attack, maybe revisit a different executive order, the push through Congress, and you've seen some of the Republican members of Congress already jumping at his command. So we will legislate however we can litigate when we need to. But we'll continue to organize and mobilize the vote this November because the political pushback is the ultimate accountability.
- [05:18]
Nicole Wallace
Senator, I made the same point about the press coverage. You know, that we've largely covered this case as the big one, but we've covered it as a jump ball. You know, we'll see what they do, assuming nothing. What does it say about our country that on the press end, we've covered this as it could go either way? People have, as you said, been waiting with bated breath to see whether something written down in the Constitution would survive the second Trump term.
- [05:44]
Senator Alex Padilla
Right. And so we can have the policy discussion and debate. I think history is very, very clear. We can, of course, have the political discussion and debate because it will not end as long as Trump is in office. But let's not forget the personal right, what it means for people. I've been sharing throughout the day of how this is personal for me, not just as a proud son of immigrants. My parents immigrated to the United States, and in the 1960s, I was born here, so I'm a citizen by birth. And I've been able to live the American dream, including, but not limited to serving as a member of the United States Senate. But when my wife, Angela and I are having conversations with our kids about issues, and they ask us, what if the Supreme Court, you know, found differently? What does it mean not just for my parents, what does that not just mean for my wife and I, what does that mean for our own children? Because if we lose our citizenship, as no doubt Donald Trump would like to see happen, what does that mean for our kids? Do we get to stay? Do we have to self deport? And that just happened to be our family. But I assure you, millions of families across the country were having those same very difficult conversations and experiencing that same sort of anxiety and uncertainty. And so thank God the Supreme Court got it right this time.
- [07:04]
Nicole Wallace
The case started making its way toward the court. I mean, he signed this executive order on the first day of his term. It feels like 11 years ago, but it was about 18 months ago. Immigration is actually more popular now than it was when he was elected a second time. You were manhandled. I think that's the most diplomatic way to put it, by Kristi Noem's security entourage. We had a lot of eyes on the ground in Minneapolis, but the excesses of ICE are ongoing. And I wonder what your thoughts are on the current immigration regime of the Trump White House.
- [07:40]
Senator Alex Padilla
Yeah. And so look, I'll tell you this, Nicolethe cruelty continues. The cruelty is just less visible than it was a year ago or even six months ago. The detention and arrests of nonviolent criminals. Right. Because for as much talk there is about the worst of the worst and the dangerous, violent criminals, the majority of people being detained, even deported without due process are not that. But what hasn't been seen, not on cable news every night and not on social media feeds, is the conditions in detention facilities so horrible. You know, lack of access to clean water, you know, food that's rotten or has maggots in it, lack of medical attention, even for folks in critical conditions. The cruelty is the point for this administration. And the cruelty trying to drive people to just waive their rights and self deport. I think that's why public opinion has shifted, because it was one thing to say, well, let's secure the border, but the cruelty we've seen in communities across the country is not what people signed up for. Not only is it unpopular, they know it's not good. It's not good policy and it's not good for the economy. When people are afraid to go to work, when people are afraid to go shopping, when you're deporting people who work in the fields, of course the price of food is going to go up. When you're deporting construction workforce, of course the cost of housing is going to go up. So people have seen Trump for what he truly is now, and that's why the approval ratings have flipped.
- [09:10]
Nicole Wallace
The approval rating for the court is also at an historic low. When you take the body of the language of the dissents from Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson to Justice Elena Kagan and Justice Sotomayor in the various decisions eliminating temporary protective status, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson's concurrence today on birthright citizenship or pointed sort of rebuttal to Thomas, what do you make of the state of polarization among the writings of the justices themselves?
- [09:45]
Senator Alex Padilla
Yeah, again, public confidence in the Supreme Court is not nearly what it should be, even on a case as clear as this. Birthright citizenship. Right. The Constitution couldn't be clearer. You read my statement earlier. Anybody born in the United States is a citizen of the United States, period. It couldn't be any more clearer than that. And even then, with that language in the Constitution, it was not a unanimous decision by the Supreme Court. Thankfully, it was a majority, but it wasn't unanimous. So again, we have to continue, not just to wonder, but to continue to be vigilant. The attacks from the Trump administration and from, you know, migrant Republicans are going to continue. So we'll have to continue to resist, have to continue to fight back and defend our values, defend our rights and build on them for future generations.
- [10:34]
Nicole Wallace
Senator Alex Padilla, thank you so much for starting us off on this news this hour.
- [10:38]
Senator Alex Padilla
Thank you, Nicole.
- [10:41]
Nicole Wallace
Tim Miller, let me bring you in on this. I feel like we need to do a whole hour just on the writings of the three liberal justices. And we sometimes say they're writing for history. No, they're writing to stop traffic and get everyone to wake the bleep up and look at what's happening in this country. The alignment between the radical, radical things that Trump is doing and the number of things that the Supreme Court sort of says, okay, it is sort of like watching those permissive parents let the kid that everyone knows is out of control do the things that they shouldn't be doing. And to read those dissents, not in Birthright, it's just a concurrence from Jackson. They were with the majority, luckily in this case. But this term seems to signal real warnings for the country from the three liberal justices.
- [11:38]
Tim Miller
Yeah, absolutely. It's, it's kind of a, the red flashing drudge siren or pay attention to me over here. Like, this is like there are lots to be concerned about. If you look at Birthright, as you mentioned, it's a concurrence. But you know, you can kind of sense an exasperation and sense an urgency of like, well, I'm not writing this 9 0. You know, I have to write this because this should have been a 9, 0 case. You know, neither you or I are constitutional scholars, Nicole, but we both have eyes and can and can comprehend just the plain text of the Constitution. And we've had constitutional amendments in the past. If the MAGA movement thinks it's that important that people who are born in this country are not granted citizenship, like we've done the entire history of our country. They could go through that process, but they didn't. They tried to do it via executive fiat from the king. And it should have been an open and shut case. And instead you end up with a 6, 3 case. It's really kind of more like a 5, 31 case because Kavanaugh writes that he reads this as Congress could pass this law, you wouldn't need a constitutional amendment. You could do it via Congress. And that's kind of what Trump grabbed onto and started pushing afterwards. And so, and I think that is alarming. It's alarming when Trump's in there two and a half more years. You don't know if he gets to replace another justice. And, you know, that starts to get closer to a majority. And so, I mean, I think that is kind of, you know, part of the reason that you're seeing kind of the urgency and either the concurrence in the case of Birthright of the dissents and some of these other cases like slaughter from the liberal justices.
- [13:12]
Nicole Wallace
I mean, none of the politics of the moment are going Trump's way. His own coalition's deeply fractured on whatever we're calling Iran. I mean, it seems like it's still a war zone, an active war. Some people describe it as a shaky ceasefire, but I think a shaky ceasefire and a hot war are essentially synonyms. The economy is on everyone's mind, particularly as we sort of head into summer holiday season. Filling up is sort of gobsmacking. And his indifference to all of it, you know, that the economy, the housing is a yawn, I love the inflation. I mean, what is your sense of this political moment? Because I think these justices have made abundantly clear that they say one thing and do another when it comes to the politics. They're some of the most thin skinned actors in our politics when they go out and talk about, oh, don't view me as political, and then they write in their opinions like their policy actors.
- [14:10]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I. Look, Trump has never been subtle, I guess, to say the least. But I think particularly lately, it's just very obvious, like what it is that he cares about, what he's focused on in his reaction to these rulings, like, as you're saying, and his behavior on other issues, like you mentioned the housing bill, that's pretty astonishing. I mean, the Congress has done basically nothing this year, like they barely work. And, and they have one bipartisan bill, right, that they've done all year, which is on hous. All the voters are saying housing matters, costs are what matter to them. Both parties are being responsive to the voters. Very strange and rare. And they get a bill passed and Trump says, no, I don't know what I'm going to do about it. I might sit on it. I might pocket veto it. We might, I might sign it, I might veto it. What I care about is trying to steal the midterm elections. So we need to get the SAVE act passed. What I care about is now that this birthright citizenship executive order has been overruled, now I want Congress to take this up. I want to try to get a law passed to ban people from being citizens, if they're born in this country, if they're parents were not, are not citizens. So like that. And obviously he cares about, you know, the East Wing and the Arch and all of that. Like Trump is being very blunt about all that. And so for that to be happening, the political winds are going away from him. But then to your point about the justices simultaneously to having this ruling after ruling where they have challenged him on some of his illegal executive orders, we should not acknowledge that. But when it comes to the executive power rulings, time and again they keep giving him more power.
- [15:38]
Nicole Wallace
And seven out of seven.
- [15:41]
Tim Miller
Yeah. So they did this ability to fire people, you know, obviously the ability to act with impunity criminally. And you know, there's a report coming out that I guess it's $2 million for a pardon now. That seems to be the running number. You can just sell pardons. And so like what we have is just a kind of Trump who is totally detached from his political interests but like really locked in on kind of grabbing as much power and money for him and his cronies as possible while the getting's good.
- [16:15]
Nicole Wallace
And his sons, don't forget about that in Kazakhstan. All right, you're not going anywhere. You're here for the hour. When we come back, there's exclusive new reporting in the Washington Post about the secret agreement Donald Trump is using to get around any remaining normal rules to build his massive, deeply unpopular Gold Ballroom where the East Wing once stood. One of the reporters behind that investigative reporting will be our next guest. Also ahead, how Donald Trump stepped in it again, blowing off the very real concerns Americans have. As Tim and I have been discussing about the high cost of housing and handing Democrats a winning campaign message ahead of the midterms. And it looks like it's starting to pay off in a high profile Senate race the Democrats are hoping to flip. We'll have all those stories later in the hour. Deadline White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.
- [17:09]
Livy Dunn
I'm Livy Dunn, all American gymnast and Vuori athlete. When you travel and train as much as I do, you find happiness where you are on the mat or on the sand. Movement and comfort are essential. That's why I live in performance Joggers by Vuori, made from Dream Knit fabric that's made of 89% recycled materials, effortlessly soft and made to move as much as I do. My happiness starts here in the softest joggers on the planet. Get 20% off your first purchase at Biore.com Libby that's V-U-O-R-I.com L I V-V-Y exclusions apply. Not only will you receive 20% off your first purchase, but enjoy free shipping on US orders over $75 and free returns. Go to Vuori.com Libby and discover the full versatility of Vuori Clothing. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions.
- [17:59]
Nicole Wallace
You know that thing where you get an amazing pair of shoes at a really great price and want to tell everyone about it? Yeah.
- [18:06]
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- [18:07]
Nicole Wallace
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- [18:29]
Tim Miller
Why have I asked my H Vac
- [18:30]
Sarah Blaskey
guy I found on angie.com to change
- [18:32]
Nicole Wallace
my grandpa's trachea tube?
- [18:33]
Sarah Blaskey
I was so amazed at how he
- [18:34]
Nicole Wallace
replaced our air ducts.
- [18:35]
Sarah Blaskey
I knew I could trust him to change Pop Pop's tube.
- [18:38]
Tim Miller
I think we should call a doctor,
- [18:39]
Senator Alex Padilla
Angie, the one you trust. Define the ones you trust. Find pros for all your home projects@angie.com
- [18:46]
Nicole Wallace
in the latest installment of Donald Trump's shocking but not surprising conduct when it comes to renovating his house, the various vanity projects popping up all across our nation's capital, there's some stunning new reporting in the Washington Post that reveals how Donald Trump skirted normal practices to try to build his massive, deeply unpopular Gold Ballroom. Quote White House officials last year secretly awarded a no big contract worth up to $500 million for the construction of the East Wing Ballroom in an unusual agreement that sidestepped typical contracting procedures designed to control costs. That's according to a copy of the agreement obtained by the Washington Post. The White House routed the contract through the executive residence. The document chose an office that is exempt from rules that require federal agencies to solicit competitive bids and disclose details to the public. The office is typically responsible for routine repairs, entertainment expenses, and the purchase of furniture, art and other items. The executive Mansion. The Post adds this reporting. Quote. Records also show that Donald Trump was directly involved in negotiating some costs for the project, end quote. I want to bring in one of the reporters who broke this story for the Washington Post, Sarah Blaskey. Tim is still here. Sarah, can you answer a dumb question? Why do they want to avoid all the normal protections around the contracting process? Is It Are they just trying to go really fast?
- [20:21]
Sarah Blaskey
The White House did not answer that question directly when we asked it for our reporting, but they have given some clues along the way. Some of the documents that we obtained as part of this reporting suggest that the White House has at various times said that they wanted to avoid basically a public notice of this contract or soliciting bids publicly because of national security. But at the end of the day, what we can tell from the records, which include communications between the White House and the general contractor on the project, Clark Construction, is that they were moving very quickly, starting last summer, and of course, competitive bidding. Going out and asking for, you know, the best price for multiple companies who could do the work does take more time, and they were certainly on a sort of fast track towards what they were hoping was going to be a demolition day in October. And indeed, they did get to that demolition day in October. So there is a speed element. And at the end of the day, they have also made the case that the executive residence, this office that you mentioned, is just simply not bound to the same rules as a federal agency. And so it can do as it wants. And if it does not want to go out to bid, it does not have to.
- [21:46]
Nicole Wallace
But this is a $500 million. We call it a ballroom. Like, it's like a room for a dance class. It literally replaces and I think quadruples in size what was standing there before it. Is there any precedent for this fun, which I understood from my time in Washington to be for movie nights, if you're going to premiere a movie, this is the budget for snacks for anyone that comes to screen a movie. And the theater, which I think has also been demolished, this is a budget for, you know, if you've got younger children that have lived there, you can use this money for a bunk. But this is not a slush fund for a, quote, $500 million, no big contract to build a ballroom, is it?
- [22:28]
Sarah Blaskey
So the executive residence is, as you said, this office or division of the executive office of the President, which is basically this. It's the staff that are dedicated to helping the president with things, his personal home and also entertainment expenses. So that's. That's a really important distinction here. The executive residents, they hire people like the. The chief usher runs the executive residence, for example, and the housekeepers in the executive Mansion who care for the president's personal home and his personal capacity, those people work for the executive residence. And so if you think about it in those terms, it's exempt from many of these regulations. Experts have told us because it is for the personal or private life of the President. Now, the East Wing is obviously for more than that. And the goal of this president to put this ballroom there for hosting large events is for more than just his personal life. And so the executive residence has had a very small budget in the past for exactly the kind of expenses you're talking about. Entertainment, furnishings, art, that kind of thing. $500 million is many, many, many times the amount that is generally allocated to the executive residence. But I will say this, this particular contract does not obligate those funds. And so it's basically saying, you know, if we can get the funds, we'll, we'll go through with this. So there's a separate allocation process and, and certainly there has been some reporting by my colleagues here at the Post and, and elsewhere that that shows that there are funds coming in to that. It's a repair and restoration account at the, at the White House Executive residence to the tune of many times more millions than have has been seen in recent history. And so, so while there is a precedent for having contracts for small repairs, this is much bigger than that.
- [24:36]
Nicole Wallace
So Tim is much, much, much bigger than the cost of snacks for movie night. It is much, much more closer to illegal in the no bid element of it. And it is no bid because these are taxpayer dollars. It's also totally contradictory to everything Donald Trump said that he would do to fund the ballroom. Let me show you Donald Trump specifically on paying for the ballroom.
- [25:06]
Donald Trump
There's a magnificent walkway that goes into what will be the most beautiful ballroom anywhere in the world. So we did this. No charge to the taxpayer whatsoever. We're going to have the finest ballroom, I believe, anywhere in the world. We didn't ask for any tax money. We have no taxes as taxpayer free. We have no taxpayer putting up 10 cents. There will never be another thing like this. I don't believe built from a cost standpoint, this is all my money and donors money. This is tax free.
- [25:39]
Nicole Wallace
I mean, their own budget requests blow that. I mean, not that it's new that he lies, but these are new lies. And when it comes to the ballroom, it's essentially all sort of AI images and Bill Barr's favorite word, bs.
- [25:57]
Tim Miller
Yeah, well, there are new lies that kind of stack up to, I guess One of the one or two biggest lies of Trump for his over 10 years was that he was going to put the focus on the forgotten man and drain the swamp in D.C. right? I mean, that was his core promise. In 2017, I had John Dickerson the former CBS Evening News host, who.
- [26:19]
Nicole Wallace
Yes, I saw that.
- [26:21]
Tim Miller
I don't know the podcast. He's so great and telling that he gets. Yeah, he's getting pushed out for what we're seeing over there now. But he recalled this quote, I don't go relisten to Trump's 2017 inaugural that often. I don't know if you do, Nicole. And so he pulled this quote from it that I hadn't heard once was enough. And Trump said this, I hear he said, a small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. And like, that was his pitch when he came in the first time. Right. That he was going to stop doing this. And now he supercharged it. Right. I mean, it is. It is all of his friends, as you mentioned before the break. It's his kids that are reaping the benefits of this government. It's him personally, because he wants his fancy ballroom. And, you know, they're not going through the normal process. They're not doing it, you know, in a way that is on the up and up. They're lying about it. They're lying about how much it's going to cost us, the people, because it's us that are paying for it through our taxes. And, you know, this is true on everything. I guess my only other observation when, when you come to the streamlining and speed is one of the arguments they make against, like, liberal governance, which I share a little bit, is sometimes there are too many meetings, too much red tape, it takes too long, it costs too much. That's happening here. Everything is every. The cost overruns is happening on everything. So they say they're speeding it up. But. But every time we learn about the bill, it's more than the last one that they set.
- [27:44]
Nicole Wallace
Well, I guess a lot of it we are learning about from exquisite, careful reporting like yours, Sarah. But a lot of it we can see with our own eyes. And what we can see with our own eyes is he could not install a plastic lining in the reflecting pool. Why does anyone think he can build a structure, let alone a ballroom, let alone a ballroom with stairs going to nowhere, on their own renderings and covered with gold. I guess it's a rhetorical question, but if you want to try to answer it, you'd be my guest.
- [28:17]
Tim Miller
Either of us. Dealer's choice.
- [28:19]
Nicole Wallace
Either of you, you want to go for it? Tim, like, what have they done to inspire confidence? There's like a fake vandalism narrative to explain the Botched installation of a plastic liner in the reflecting pool.
- [28:34]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I mean, this is part of his fake image. I would just say, like, he failed as a real estate guy and we got bailed out through bankruptcy and then he ended up having. His innovation was what he's continued to play into the presidency, which was his celebrity. He was good at being famous. Right. And so he put his name on a bunch of stuff that other people built. Right. And like that. And so it gave the impression that he was going to be good at this, that he was going to be a builder, that he's going to be efficient at this. And I don't, you know, and if you read Haberman and Swan's book, like, it does seem like he does really know about the different kinds of marble and the different kinds of light that come off a chandelier. But, like, it doesn't seem like he knows how to, how to build something cheap, under budget, fast and within the rules. I think that is kind of an obvious statement.
- [29:20]
Nicole Wallace
The only thing I would push back, I read that section, is that it only seems like he knows a lot about Marvel because I don't know a lot about Marvel. So, like, he could be right about Marvel. He, like, I don't know, he could be. He actually be wrong about Marvel. I'm just like, Marvel's not my thing, but. Sarah, we're grateful to have this reporting. It's really important piece of our understanding. Thank you for bringing it to us. Tim sticks around when we come back. There's reason for Democrats to feel cautiously optimistic about all of this, up to and including a race they have dreamed about for decades. There's new polling on the Senate race in Texas that give Democrats a real chance to think it's possible to turn this Republican seat blue. We'll bring you that reporting next.
- [30:07]
Livy Dunn
I'm Livy Dunn, All American gymnast and Vuori athlete. When you travel and train as much as I do, you find happiness where you are, on the mat or on the sand. Movement and comfort are essential. That's why I live in performance. Joggers by Vuori, Made from Dream Knit fabric that's made of 89% recycled materials, effortlessly soft and made to move as much as I do. My happiness starts here in the softest joggers on the planet. Get 20% off your first purchase at biore.com libby that's v U-O-R-I.com l I V-V-Y exclusions apply. Not only will you receive 20% off your first purchase, but enjoy free shipping on US orders over $75 and free returns. Go to vuori.com livy and discover the full versatility of Vuori Cloth. Clothing exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions.
- [30:57]
Tim Miller
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- [31:01]
Nicole Wallace
Zazzle is a custom marketplace where you
- [31:03]
Sarah Blaskey
pick any product, a mug, a card,
- [31:06]
Nicole Wallace
a tote, a phone case and make it personal. A photo, a name, an inside joke.
- [31:11]
Sarah Blaskey
The kind of gift that actually fits the person. That's what 30 million customers have been coming back to Zazzle for over 20 years to find. Right now, save 25% on your first order@zazzle.com that's zazzle.com make it zamazing.
- [31:27]
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- [32:00]
Tim Miller
What are your plans for the housing bill, Mr. President?
- [32:02]
TextNow/Thumbtack Ad Voice
Are you.
- [32:03]
Donald Trump
I don't know. I think it's so unimportant by compared to by compared to the Save America. Here's what I would like to sign much more than a bill that big deal. It's a yawn. Some people say it's wonderful. To me, compared to the Save America act, just about everything is a big yawn.
- [32:29]
Nicole Wallace
You and your pain about the cost of rent and the dream of buying a house are a quote big yawn. To me, it is almost like Donald Trump is trying to suck at being president and winning the midterms. It is like he is trying to make ads for Democratic candidates, midterm campaigns. His apathy, his indifference, his lack of impulse control to say what he really thinks, which is obviously that. That the basic economic struggles of everyday Americans, including the millions who voted for him, are a quote yawn. It is why we are seeing his poll numbers plunge to levels that were simply unimaginable two years ago, particularly in deep red conservative parts of Texas, the state Trump won by 14 points. A brand new New York Times Siena poll shows Texas State Representative James Talarico tied with that state's Republican candidate, the attorney general ken Paxton, at 47% apiece. The poll highlights how in Texas just 44% of voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, with 53% of respondents in Texas saying they disapprove of Donald Trump. I want to bring into our conversation Democratic pollster political analyst Cornell Belcher. Tim is still here. Cornell, where's your head these days on the state of the Democrats fortunes in Texas?
- [33:56]
Cornell Belcher
Here we go with Texas again, Nicole. Here we go.
- [34:01]
Nicole Wallace
I know I was a beto believer. I have that. I have Texas. I have Texas. I feel like I spent a lot of time in Texas. And what the Texas Republicans like is not what Donald Trump is doing. Gold gilded stuff does not sell with the sort of like the alpha conservative brand in Texas.
- [34:21]
Cornell Belcher
I think that's right because look, I think the opening is that Trump job approval is way underwater in Texas, which is a long time since you've seen a Republican president this far underwater in Texas. And look, to show you, and look, I was on your show back when the primary was just before the primary was happening. And I said, look, if Paxton takes out Cornyn, this becomes an open seat. And if Texas come open seat, like all of us political hacks on this panel understand that's different than an incumbent. And I think that becomes a much more competitive race and Republicans are going to have to spend money there. And so what you have right now is a toss up race. But for this, curb our enthusiasm for a moment here. It's a toss up race where Paxton, who has been indicted, has allegations of cheating, has been impeached and is an election denier, is in a toss up race. It is a toss up race where Paxton, who is seen by a majority as not having good ethics and where tal Rico by 18 or 13 points, seen as the more moral, upstanding person and the person with the right values, is in a toss up in Texas. That's how tough Texas is. However, I think this time there is a shot because you do see independence breaking for the Democrat there in a way where we've also seen, Nicole, in the special elections that we've seen as well the statewide elections in the off year, we've seen, we've seen independents breaking away from Republicans as such a staggering number. That puts a lot of these districts, a lot of these places in play. The other thing I would point out about the polling really quickly is that we there was a lot of conversations about the ground that Republicans made, Donald Trump made among Hispanics, Latinos in the Last presidential election. If you look at the way Tyler Rico is running up the score with his bags in Texas right now, you understand that that was not solid or certainly not a, a shift that we've seen permanence to as they are also moving back to Democrats.
- [36:25]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, we saw that in New Jersey. It was just a question of whether that was a New Jersey development or national trend. Cornell, let me ask you about the economy. Is it, I mean, because you made the point more clearly than I could have. I mean, on the question of ethics or morals, you've got Paxton's own wife answering those questions for us that, that he is not moral, he is not ethical. If you take that away as perhaps not a top tier issue, is it the economy or what is what, what is sort of the issue issue set look like for you?
- [37:00]
Cornell Belcher
Well, you know, if you look at the data, we always want to make it about the economy because, because quite frankly, we're kind of lazy and it's easy story. But you know, it's never simply about the right. Voters have, are making sense of their lives through the prism of their values, of their religiosity with a lot of different things. But the economy is always central. And look, here's one where again you see independents really moving away from Donald Trump and Republicans on handling the economy. Nicole, if Donald Trump were not underwater by such a large percentage point in Texas, this would not be a tie race. Right? Here is one where you absolutely see Donald Trump is the problem dragging down the Republican brand. Because everywhere you see where Donald Trump is underwater, yet the vast majority of voters who are disapproving of Donald Trump are breaking for the Democrats. So the more he goes underwater, the better it is for Democrats. And here's a state where you, where you see that fade like this would not be that competitive of a race if Donald Trump was not such a drag on the ticket.
- [38:09]
Nicole Wallace
So Tim, this is what the New York Times poll finds about this question of the economy. Jobs, the stock market, inflation and the cost of living are by far the most pressing issue for Texas voters. 28% said economic issues would decide their vote, triple any other issue. And a full 60% of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of cost of living issues. It's sort of, again, I wasn't not a pollster, I'm not an expert. But from working on campaigns, those are just numbers that are becoming structural and they actually kind of explain why for Trump policy meetings are a quote, yawn. He needs his election rigging bill to pass because on the policies he's given up.
- [38:53]
Tim Miller
Correct? Yes. And, and I think that there's maybe positive ways to look at that, that that's, I think, gonna be good for the Democrats in elections. There's some negative ways to look at it, which is what's happening in his head if he doesn't care about elections anymore. But, you know, on the Texas election, just kind of to add to what you and Cornell said, I just as part of my personal journey, I know that people I can update. After the trauma of 2024, Cornell had to get back to work doing pollstering. I didn't, I quit looking at polls for a while because I just couldn't do it, you know, it was too much ptsd. But I'm back, baby. I'm back. This poll came digging into the cross tabs, ready to get back out in the field. And I was looking at it and look, I mean, it's interesting. The recall vote for the election in this poll was Trump +10. So that's a 1 in 10 Texas voters have moved from voting saying that they're no for Trump to saying that they'd vote for telo, give or take. And so that's a meaningful difference. It's the Hispanic voters almost, you know, the majority of them, as Cornell pointed out. It's also some like older whites, which I think we can probably shorthand as like old George W. Bush types in Texas. And so those are the kind of the two groups that are, that have, that have flipped where telo Rico is still getting just crushed. Where Democrats have gotten crushed for a while now is with working class white voters. And tell Rico is winning basically every other demographic except for working class white voters. He's losing by four. And so that's the question is like, how can the Democrats now over the next four months try to narrow that gap by talking about affordability, by demonstrating they care about affordability, by contrasting from Trump, who doesn't care about affordability, who only cares about the Gold Ballroom, and said that it was a yawn when people were concerned about housing. So some of those voters obviously aren't gettable, but I just think that is where the fight is. Can you reach a breaking point with some percentage of working class whites in order to win in some of these red states? Because that's kind of the last holdout.
- [40:55]
Nicole Wallace
All right, we'll press that issue with Cornell on the other side of a short break. Don't go anywhere.
- [41:05]
Donald Trump
The word affordability is a con job by the Democrats. You know, they always have a hoax the new word is affordability. The word affordability is a Democrat scam. You know what I really love? I love the inflation. I don't think about American financial situation. I don't think about anybody.
- [41:28]
Nicole Wallace
Cornell. There are things that Trump said that were so crazy, we'd come on and we'd sort of, you know, the shock value. The Russia hoax. Russia, if you're listening, you know, he's benefited by shocking people around issues where the gaslighting at least created enough paralysis for people to say, well, you know, I don't know, who knows what Russia did? Affordability isn't one of them.
- [41:55]
Sarah Blaskey
Right.
- [41:55]
Nicole Wallace
Affordability is in your face every day when you stand there and they've added up everything after everything goes by. Affordability is in your face as you push the cart around Walmart and try to decide, do you really need that? You really need that? Everyone shops online now. It's on your brain every time you're at your cart, figuring out what to move to, wish list or save for later. Affordability is on everybody's mind. And calling it a hoax. If you had to go into a laboratory and come up with the worst thing Trump could do for his party, it would be to call affordability a hoax. What do you then do with this sort of raw reveal of Trump's indifference and disdain for people's economic pain?
- [42:38]
Cornell Belcher
Well, you want to know why the Texas Senate race is a toss up right now? It's because of stuff like that, right? It's because most voters, especially independent voters and moderate bell of the road voters, it isn't top issue. Affordability is not a hoax to them. And you hear it in focus groups all the time where families are talking about how difficult it is to make ends meet. And the president doesn't think it's serious. And it's absolutely hurting the party and their brand.
- [43:13]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, I'm with you, Tim. I'm back to looking at the polls, too. Cornell, thank you for your help for keeping us honest. Thank you both for joining us today. Quick break for us. We'll be right back. Our guest on this week's episode of the Best People podcast is Eddie Glad. And our conversation is fitting for the week celebrating our country's 250th birth. But I also got to talk to him about what or who gives him hope for the future of our country. Take a listen.
- [43:43]
Eddie Glad
Part of our task, I think, is to clear the underbrush, is to take out all of the stuff that's been underwater, soaked, ruined, so that the millennials and the gen Zers can come in and gut the house and do what's needed to be done to actually get us to the other side of this.
- [44:05]
Nicole Wallace
Do you see people doing that? Do you see people in our politics that give you hope?
- [44:12]
Eddie Glad
No names jump off the page immediately. You know, I mean, you mentioned Mamdani and immediately people think you're a socialist. And I hate these labels. I just want people to try to address the circumstances of folk. You know, we're drowning in greed and selfishness and hatred and politicians manipulate those three things repeatedly. And I just want somebody, whether it's Dave Jolly in Florida or whether it's Mamdani in New York, I don't give a damn where you are in the ideological spectrum. I just want you to address the circumstances of everyday, ordinary folk.
- [44:53]
Nicole Wallace
You can watch the entire conversation on YouTube right now by scanning the QR code on your screen or you can listen to it by downloading the best people wherever you get your podcasts. One more break. We'll be right back. Thank you so much for letting us into your homes tonight. We are grateful.
- [45:13]
Sarah Blaskey
If you're looking for new ways to get ahead, then you're our kind of person. We're Udemy and we help learners like you upskill in AI productivity, leadership and management and more. Learn at your own pace from real world experts. You can also prep for certifications that show employers what, you know, upskill for the career you want at udemy.
- [45:37]
Eddie Glad
Com.
- [45:40]
Sarah Blaskey
Now back to your regularly scheduled listening.