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[00:01]
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[00:30]
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[00:54]
Charlie Sykes
Never know how.
[01:02]
Nicole Lapin
Hi there everyone. Happy Monday. It's 4 o' clock in the east as Donald Trump's rapidly declining poll numbers on the economy reach the category of officially historically bad. The Republicans who have enabled him are now facing a cold, hard political reality that Donald Trump may have created a generational shift in terms of who voters trust to handle the economy, one that extends far beyond Donald Trump, tainting his entire party in the process. The Wall Street Journal reports this quote with voters negative impressions now hardening, some Republican and independent analysts say Trump and his GOP allies have little time to regain a key asset, their image as the party better suited to handle the economy. For the gop, the fear is that voters who back the party in 2024, believing Trump would ease the cost of living, will either stay home or defect this November. One political scientist at Vanderbilt University tells the Wall Street Journal this quote, the set of events that would need to happen to produce a real change in the Republican Party's fortune is pretty big. The Journal notes this quote for the first time since 2010, Fox News polls find voters citing Democrats as better on the economy than Republicans. Democrats led by 4 points on the question in April and by 9 points by July, whereas the GOP was viewed as the better economic manager by as much as 15 points in 2022 and 2023. Well, how bad is it? It is so bad that at this point, you can't even make it up. Trump is desperately fending off comparisons to the president most Americans associate as the worst of the Great Depression.
[02:48]
Claire McCaskill
Watch.
[02:51]
Donald Trump
I have one primary wish as president in terms of people. I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover. I don't want to be a president that oversees the great worldwide Depression that was Herbert Hoover and it was a terrible thing. Rather than possibly going into a depression, rather than having your favorite president be Herbert Hoover. I never want to be Herbert Hoover. When I didn't say it would cause a depression, I said it could cause a depression. Right? And they said that I don't want to be Herbert Hoover.
[03:33]
Nicole Lapin
For a guy who does not know a lot about history, he sure seems obsessed with Herbert Hoover. NPR is reporting this about Trump's growing Herbert Hoover obsession as his war with Iran continues to put pressure on Americans finances. Quote, behind the scenes and in public remarks, Trump has acknowledged seeking an agreement to end the Iran war in hopes of escaping comparisons to former President Herbert Hoover, the Republican whose name became synonymous with economic collapse after the Great Depression. It is recognition that he may be judged not only by what happens on the battlefield, but by the impacts on inflation, gas prices and voters lives at home. For Trump, that concern is more urgent as the war takes a toll on energy and inflation. The Trump economic message morphing from I alone can fix it to I'm not Herbert Hoover. Bad is where we begin today with some of our favorite reporters and friends. Senior economics reporter for cnbc, Steve Liesman's back with us. Also back with us, Charlie Sykes is the author of the to the Contrary newsletter. And joining us as well, our friend, political analyst, former Senator Claire McCaskill, who's with us for the hour. Steve, first just help us understand where we are in terms of this latest jobs report. Our headline was this US economy loses 23,000 jobs in July as Trump era economy continues to struggle. I think people could tell you this story. They've been able to tell you this story for many, many, many, many months with the tariffs sort of laying the foundation for their economic anxiety. And then the war in Iran maxing it out as their credit cards maxed out and their economic anger maxed out. But tell me what, what it seems like the data has caught up with that lived reality.
[05:27]
Steve Liesman
Well, it's clear that we've had a major downshift in job growth and I think think there's two potential sources there. And actually it's the second one, the one people don't talk about, that is the one that's more worrisome to me. The first downshift in growth for jobs comes from the idea that maybe the economy is cooling some and you've had all of these speed bumps along the way. These are self inflicted speed bumps, if I can mix a couple of metaphors there. The first one being the tariffs. The second one Being the war in Iran and the spike in gas prices. The other element which is more worrisome to me because you can go through these cyclical issues and you can bounce back and things can be okay, is this idea that we have basically decided not to have any labor force growth. You have very little population growth domestically among the native population. And we have decided not to allow many immigrants into the country and kick a bunch out. So what's happened, Nicole, is that the, what you would call the average number of jobs needed in this economy or the amount of labor force available has come way down. And so I was just looking at some numbers. Under Donald Trump, we've created 30,000 jobs a month over the 19 months that you could count he's been in office before that, it was 107,000amonth in the last 12 months of the Biden administration. So there has been a combination of a cyclical downturn where, which is something that can go up and down and maybe less worrisome. But the idea that what you would call in economics a secular downturn, in other words, one that is more permanent and part of policy, that's the one that worries me more.
[07:10]
Nicole Lapin
What could be done about that second one?
[07:14]
Steve Liesman
Well, labor force growth, I mean, that's, you know, how do you do that? Economics can sound, economics can sound very complicated. There's only two ways to grow the economy. You work more or you work more productively. Those two combinations are essentially what give you GDP growth. That's your economics one on one lesson for the day. And the story is that we can grow by being more productive. Maybe AI is going to provide that. But the other part of that equation is labor force growth. And you could have immigration population, you could have native domestic population growth. But when we've decided essentially to both kick out foreigners and deportations and stop immigration and bring that number way down, you lose that. And think about the number of businesses that their business plan is essentially, well, we're going to work really hard. We're going to gain some market share. We're going to be more productive. But we also have this other thing going for us was that the population grows. Well, guess what? We may be in the middle of a major reset here in this country where we don't have population force. I'll give you an example. We sit here and we do 8:30 the first Friday of every month on CNBC. We do the jobs report. A number comes out, it's 100,000. That's pretty good. 150,000, that's pretty good. 200,000. That's a big number. Well, guess what, folks? Reset. Get rid of all those expectations. It comes in at 50 now. That's a good number. Minus 23. Well, maybe now we're flirting with both a secular downturn and a cyclical downturn, and it's something to worry about.
[08:44]
Nicole Lapin
Claire, I think that my sort of lifelong goal is to be able to talk to Steve Liesman on television. And I'm a work in progress on that. But I think that if you're out in the country this summer, if you're at baseball games, if you're at the grocery store, if you're at swim meets, if you're at soccer games, if you're at basketball camp, if you're talking to anybody about anything. You are talking about where the cheapest gas is. You are talking about stuff like where the cheapest packs of chicken breasts can be. People are talking about how expensive life has become. People are talking without shame about bargain hunting. People are commiserating about how quickly it's become this bad, and that's what's happening. And Trump calling affordability a hoax is, you know, politically, the Republicans deserve what they get. But in terms of what they've done to people's sense of economic security, it really is in terms of lived experiences, to borrow Steve's word, absolutely unforced errors.
[10:00]
Claire McCaskill
Yeah. And the thing that I worry about, I understand Steve, is looking at this through the lens of the economy. I'm looking through it as the lens of political reality. And what I worry most about is the disconnect between the policymakers in the White house and the 40 to 60% of Americans that are living paycheck to paycheck. We're going to have really good corporate profits.
[10:25]
Nicole Lapin
Right.
[10:25]
Claire McCaskill
And that just exacerbates the feeling that people have, wait a minute, these corporations are making all this money. These executives are making all this money. These billionaires are getting created at a record pace in America. That's what's giving strength to the movements on the extremes. That's what's giving strength to the idea that we've got to, like, really upset everything in order to get anything to happen for the folks who are struggling. And that's what really worries me. That's when you end up with kind of political upheaval that really does some lasting damage to democracy. So I'm hoping that the Democrats can get back to talking about real policy issues that can make a difference for that 40 to 60% of America. You know, lots of folks watching CNBC are looking at the stock market. But lots of other folks are looking at the monthly bills and realizing they don't have enough to pay them.
[11:21]
Nicole Lapin
Charlie, to Claire's point, let me read you the CNBC reporting. Affordability is a defining challenge for Americans. With food costs leading the way, affordability is the defining challenge when it comes to economic mobility. According to a new report by McKinsey, the survey of 30,000Americans across income levels found that 90% of those polled cited groceries and food prices as a top cost concern, even over other key expenses such as housing and healthcare. Now, that doesn't mean that housing and healthcare have gone down. People are still pretty upset about those. But it means that the thing you need to go do every day or every couple of days, depending on the size of your family, is so in your face. And that's the price you pay at wherever you shop, stop and shop, or wherever you publix, or wherever you're doing your regular family shopping.
[12:10]
Charlie Sykes
Well, I appreciate Claire's point because we really do have two Americas. You ask what is the source of this economic anxiety? People look at the stock market and it's incredibly high. But this is a K shaped recovery where you do have Americans having that lived experience of being concerned. This is the defining issue of this midterm election, the economy. And this administration is incredibly tone deaf about it. Also, Donald Trump backed himself into a corner. He is obsessed with tariffs and he's got himself into a quagmire in Iran. We are three months away from the midterm elections and there's no indication that he's got any exit strategy from either from Iran or from the trade wars that he's launched. Not to mention the fact that many of those people who are worried about paying the bills and putting gas in their car and buying groceries are also concerned about what's going to happen to my job with AI, the AI revolution. And I think all of this does come together in terms of this, this, this almost revolutionary sense of anxiety that we have. Can I make one other sense? We've talked about economics, we talked about politics. I'd like to talk about psychology. This is a really interesting insight into Donald Trump's psychology because it's very rare and of course, we're hesitant to go into the dark recesses of Donald Trump's mind. But you can tell what he really fears most. He doesn't fear infamy. He doesn't being remembered as a corrupt individual. What he fears is being portrayed as a loser or as weak, which is why his obsession with Herbert Hoover, even though he's adopted the Smoot Hawley economic approach, you know, is kind of a tell. What does Donald Trump most fear? He fears being remembered as Herbert Hoover on the economy and he fears being remembered as Jimmy Carter on Iran. And those are the things that are rattling around in his head because here's a guy that just months ago was talking about himself being a new Caesar, Napoleon, Alexander the Great. But you know, when he's alone at 3am Donald Trump is thinking, oh my God, maybe I'll end up as Herbert Hoover, maybe I'll end up as Jimmy Carter. So we're getting a glimpse of what Donald Trump fears the most.
[14:26]
Nicole Lapin
Yeah, I mean, Steve, if you could just pull that thread. I mean, what do you, what do business leaders fear the most? I know that they've sort of been like teenagers consuming his social media and always like reading the most positive thing out of his inane posts, which Iran and most political watchers no longer believe are good for anything but the market seems to cast the most optimistic view on the things he posts. What do, I mean, what do they think about the comparison to Herbert Hoover?
[15:00]
Steve Liesman
Well, first, I think one of the things business leaders fear the most is Donald Trump. Right? I mean, there have been tremendous efforts on the part of the CEOs of the biggest corporations in order to make sure they're not on his bad side. Because policy, business policy, economic policy in the United States right now is very random and tied to the whims of Donald Trump. And that's a very big deal. And that's why you have all of these contributions to all these projects of his. And I guess the returns on those contributions have been in many cases pretty darn good for the business leaders in terms of getting either regulations that they want, regulations passed, regulations removed, as well as government contracts. So that's a big deal right there. In terms of the Herbert Hoover comparison, I really don't even want to go there because it's not a very pleasant comparison when we think about it. It's, it's 20 plus percent unemployment, 25%, I believe, was what happened in the Great Depression. And it went on for many, many years. And I guess the issue right now is we are tremendously extended when it comes to the investment in AI and the stock market. This may turn out just fine and be the huge revolution in technology and business and the economy that everybody hopes for. But it can go badly. And I've been through enough of these to know that it indeed can go badly. And when it starts to crumble if it doesn't come return the results that people expect, it would be very painful.
[16:33]
Nicole Lapin
All right, no one's going anywhere. And I'm going to, I'm going to make one more run at you, Steve, because it's Donald Trump. He's talking about Herbert Hoover for the, you know, it's a rare instance for the comparisons or projections from him himself also had for us. Charlie teased it for us. But there is another president Donald Trump has tried very hard to run from a new warning about turning into Jimmy Carter when it comes to the war with Iran. From a one time close advisor and ally of Donald Trump's. And later in the broadcast, Trump's yes man at DOJ is now officially the country's Attorney general. Todd Blanche's presence sending a chill among those who value the rule of law, the rule of one man, as fears grow about what he will be pressured to do now that he's in the top job officially. All those stories and much more when Deadline White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.
[17:27]
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[17:57]
Nicole Lapin
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[18:07]
Steve Liesman
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[18:13]
Julian Barnes
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[19:07]
Unidentified Interviewer
And for the average American out there, I mean, polling indicates that they feel an inflation problem, that they are feeling the Costs go up in housing and medical expenses, dining out in the last CPI report. I mean, how do you address that? I mean, you can, you can point to all the numbers you want in the economic data. I don't know if it's a perception problem, but that's what they're feeling out there, right?
[19:28]
Charlie Sykes
Well, absolutely.
[19:29]
Steve Liesman
You know, we understand what people are feeling.
[19:31]
Charlie Sykes
And in part it came about because of the runaway inflation under Joe Biden.
[19:38]
Nicole Lapin
I mean, Steve, back to your point about not wanting to go there with Herbert Hoover. It's Donald Trump that keeps going there with Herbert Hoover. We could have made a match three times that long for all of the obsessive things he says about not wanting to be Herbert Hoover. And we could have made one 10 times that long about all the attacks on Joe Biden's economy. I mean, these are their projections and deflections. And I wonder if any of it is rooted in anything defensively true.
[20:05]
Steve Liesman
Well, I mean, the real facts are that Donald Trump had an opportunity to deliver much lower inflation to the American public. By the time he took office, the inflation that happened under the Biden administration was waning. It was down to about 3% or so. It had come down quite sharply as a result of largely Federal Reserve rate hikes. It's interesting that he hated Jay Powell, but Jay Powell raised interest rates very sharply. The American public lived through a very difficult time in terms of enduring higher prices. But that inflation, which of course I mean the rate of price growth, I don't mean the level of prices because prices did not come down. But Donald Trump had an opportunity to build on that. Instead, he created the tariffs that created inflation and higher prices. And then we had the war with Iran that created further higher prices. It is possible that we have maybe seen the worst of it, but it's also equally possible that things get worse from here. We are not making any progress in the Strait of Hormuz, and it may be, and this is what I suspect, that we haven't seen the worst of the gas price increases. And I think this gets to the polling that your astute political observers are talking about, which is Donald Trump came in promising he was going to lower prices, lower mortgage rates. Instead, mortgage rates are higher, they're nearing 7%. Prices are higher and moving at a clip that is above what the Federal Reserve wants, above what most economists think is healthy for an economy. So we may have a little relief in the next couple reports, but we'll have to watch the price of oil here, which is back up again.
[21:40]
Nicole Lapin
Claire, I also Think this is the point where all we use the word grifting, but stealing from the taxpayer to enrich himself and his two sons is what is in the papers every day. And it's increasingly in local papers. The sons are getting so rich quickly and refusing to apologize when asked about it. So there's real saturation of the facts. Again, it's not an attack, it's a fact that they brag about that Donald Trump has made more money than he ever made in his life in the 15 months he's been back in the Oval Office. And his two adult sons have made more money than they've ever made in their lives as first time defense contractors. People are not stupid. They know that that is corrupt.
[22:20]
Claire McCaskill
Yeah, I would say that Donald Trump could easily turn out to definitely be Jimmy Carter, but with no morals. Or Hoover. Hoover with no intellectual capacity, but surpassing every president in our history in terms of his corrupt greed. I mean, just pure greed. And people see that for what it is, whether it's all the gold tchotchkes in the Oval Office to his ridiculous way he's taking payment for inside information on stock trades to all the crypto and taking money from any foreign entity for his crypto with no questions asked. It is unbelievably corrupt. It is so corrupt that people are thinking, well, because it's so much out in the open, it can't be really illegal. Yeah, it can be. He just feels really emboldened by the immunity that the Supreme Court gave him. Time will tell whether that immunity holds up.
[23:25]
Nicole Lapin
Charlie, the realignment on the economy is one of those things that in my political life, you know, you wish that you're working on Republican campaigns when your advantage on the economy is what the Democrats are staring at right now. I mean, it is. People have turned against Republicans on the economy so quickly, the proof points are in their lives. Right. You don't, you don't need to pay for a bunch of ads to tell people how bad things are. The things are in their face in everyday ways, whether they're filling up or not. They see it every time they drive past the gas station, as we talked about the grocery store and a cart of whatever you need for back to school at Walmart or Target is more than it was a year ago, and it's definitely more than it was two years ago. What do you make or what are your thoughts about how the Democrats really keep the focus on those economic realities for Americans ahead of the midterms and ahead of the next presidential.
[24:21]
Charlie Sykes
Well, they ought to be able to do that relatively easily because as you point out, those realities are right in front of the American people. But also remind the American people to pick up on Steve's word. Donald Trump had an opportunity here to turn the economy around and imagine what the economy would look like if we did not have the tariffs, if we did not have the war with Iran, if we did not have the kind of grip. And not only do the American people see the cost of living in that promise broken and see Donald Trump's corruption, they are seeing a system that the inequality has gotten to the point where I don't care how conservative you are, you have to realize that this does not add to stabilization, that people look at the system and they do think that it's rigged. And I think Claire made this point. This leads to a great deal of instability as people flock to the extreme. So I think what Democrats need to do is to find a way to convince the American public that not only do they understand their problems, but that they actually have solutions that will make things better, that will lower the cost of living, that will even the playing field. What Americans want is they want opportunity, they want security, and they want some kind of stability. Donald Trump has given them anxiety, deep inequality and a sense that things have gone off the rails. And I think that, you know, again, all of these things I think play together, the corruption, the inequality, the fail, the broken promise of lowering the cost of living. And I think that that mood is growing and I don't think it's going to change between now and the midterm. What Democrats shouldn't do is to sleep on what the Republican strategy will be, which is, number one, cast them as socialists and communists, as Hillary Clinton warned over the weekend, you know, this can be effective. And secondly, Republicans are going to lean very heavily into culture war issues. But I'm not sure that that's going to be enough to counter the headwinds they're facing on the economy this year.
[26:31]
Nicole Lapin
Steve, what is your sense of how businesses ride out two more years of Donald Trump if Democrats take control of Con?
[26:40]
Steve Liesman
Well, I think it'll matter to them if Democrats do take control of Congress. I think that'll be something that to some might offer some relief from the pressure that they get from the White House to do certain things. Nicole, can I just step out, make a quick statistical point relative to your last question and the last answer there, The Fox News poll you cite cites a four point advantage on the question of our Democrats better than Republicans on the economy. If I was a Democrat, I'd be happy about the change, which was plus 9 points, but I'm guessing that that poll has a 3.1% plus or minus margin of error. So I don't think I'd get out the pom poms and start to celebrate my lead over the Republicans on the economy. I think what was just said that the Democrats have quite a bit of convincing to do. I would call that a fiscal dead heat on the economy. The change obviously in favor of the Democrats, but the idea that it's a four point lead and a 3.1% margin of error is not a tremendous lead.
[27:39]
Nicole Lapin
I guess I would say one. Have you met a Democrat lately? They seem to never have any pom poms, even when they do win. And I mean, it's a good. It's a good point. I mean, I think the way we consume polls here, on our show at least, is directionally, and I think directionally it's seismic. Since Donald Trump descended the elevator, people have felt that his ostentatious and tacky wealth was contagious. I remember when he had his helicopter in Iowa. It is. Just go ahead.
[28:09]
Steve Liesman
Yeah. This is the central question because our CNBC polling also finds. Our last poll a month or so ago found Donald Trump more underwater on the economy than he'd ever been. And in the first term, he was always a boy above water or had better than his overall approval. And the central question that we keep polling about is, is the. Are the negative views of Americans on the economy something that the Democrats will capitalize on or not? In this election,
[28:37]
Nicole Lapin
voters will always give us their answer better than any of us can guess. Steve, Charlie, thank you both so much for starting us off. Claire sticks around for the hour when she and I come back with no way out of the war in Iran and no leverage for Donald Trump, the guy who says he's the world's greatest negotiator. Trump's war of choice in Iran seems to be going nowhere good. We'll look at the dangerous things he could do next.
[29:07]
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[29:37]
Rob Lowe
Hey, everybody, it's Rob Lowe here, if you haven't heard. I have a podcast that's called Literally with Rob Lowe. And basically it's conversations I've had that really make you feel like you're pulling up a chair at an intimate dinner between myself and people that I admire, like Aaron Sorkin or Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, Chris Pratt, Michael J. Fox. There are new episodes out every Thursday, so subscribe please and listen wherever you get your podcasts.
[30:11]
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[30:16]
Nick Confessori
I decided to just focus on the University of Michigan. I obtained internal documents that showed that the school had spent about a quarter of a billion dollars on DEI programs. I spent two weeks in Ann Arbor talking to everybody I could find the unintended consequences of these programs. They had sort of left everybody dissatisfied and this expensive machinery the school had built just imploded. If you're a journalist, you are not on anyone's team. All you're trying to do is figure out as many of the facts as you can gather. The facts are going to guide you to where the story lands. You're not taking sides. I'm Nick Confessori. I'm an investigations reporter for the New York Times.
[30:57]
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[31:03]
Nicole Lapin
firsthand and publish what they find.
[31:05]
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[31:07]
Nicole Lapin
Seek it out if you don't already.
[31:12]
Chris Christie
Look, the real problem here is it was an adventure without a plan. What struck me was that Donald Trump is about to become what he never, ever wanted to be. Jimmy Carter, yes, he is being held hostage by Iran. They are holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage. As a result, they're holding the world economy hostage and it's focused at Donald Trump. And here we are. And it was all voluntary.
[31:45]
Nicole Lapin
Sums it all up. What's notable there is that is Republican Chris Christie, one time supporter, friend and ally of Donald Trump's, describing the war in Iran as it is a disaster of Donald Trump's own making, that Donald Trump is now stuck in a war and an economic crisis that he created that he started with no plan to begin with and more than five months in, little or no options and absolutely no leverage over Iran. Now a defiant Iran is vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the US Meets a sweeping list of steep demands that now includes billions of dollars in war reparations. In recent days, Donald Trump has said he was both prepared to launch the biggest attack since World War II, and he has said that he is convinced that a Deal with Iran is once again imminent. Now Donald Trump is signaling that he's actually in no rush at all to get the United States of America out of the war with Iran. In a new interview with Axios, Trump declared the US Is now, as the kids say, low keying it with Iran and only semi negotiating with them. Those are quotes. Instead, Trump said, quote, we're just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money, end quote. But don't worry, Trump says, because, quote, it will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game. I want to bring in Ann Applebaum. She's of course, a columnist for the Atlantic and the host of the podcast Autocracy in America. Claire's still with us. Ann, which chapter of the autocrat?
[33:24]
Anne Applebaum
I'm sorry, I missed the last part of the question. I mean, I think what we're seeing is. Say that again.
[33:30]
Nicole Lapin
Go ahead. I just said, which part of an autocrat's advantage is starting a war that the country doesn't support and then very publicly losing it?
[33:42]
Anne Applebaum
I don't think it's really to anybody's advantage, whether they're an autocrat or a Democrat. Trump started the war on false premises. He imagined it would work out the same way as Venezuela. Instead, as you've just heard, it's working out a little bit more like America's relation with Iran in 1979. I think the most important thing, though, to note now is that the US Is actually less and less of a participant in the war, so. Or in the negotiations to end the war. So the main negotiation is now going on between Iran and Oman and they are working out in very great detail how to manage the Strait of Hormuz. I presume that the rest of the Middle east is negotiating with them and the US Is now a kind of secondary player. So when Trump says, I'm low keying it, whatever that means, what he is actually saying is that the US Isn't really participating. And it may be that the end game of the war is decided without the United States or with. To the disadvantage of the United States, because they, you know, if the, if Iran and Oman figure out how to control the Strait and then simply make demands of America and the US has no more leverage. We're running out of weapons. We don't have ideas. We don't have as many friends in the Middle east as we used to, then it will get decided without us.
[35:10]
Nicole Lapin
What does that mean in terms of our ability to protect? I mean, America still has troops in the region. There are sailors who have been on the USS Lincoln now for many, many months. I mean, what does that mean for the United States military to take such a backseat?
[35:29]
Anne Applebaum
It means that our troops are in danger because they become sitting ducks. They become part of a game that Iran can play. If they want to put up pressure on the US or they want to put pressure on US Allies, it means that we have less say and less influence in other regional capitals. I think that's starting to happen already. You can see the Gulf states looking for other links, other friends. They're talking to Europeans, they're talking to the Ukrainians actually about how to defend against drones and how to defend against Iran as they begin to lose faith in their alliance with the United States. I mean, this is a long term process and it will play out over many years. But the fact that the US Is now not a reliable negotiator. In other words, what the President says one day he can contradict the next day. And the US Is not a reliable player. So it's unpredictable. It's not clear what its strategy is. It's not a country that anybody can rely on. All of that means that everybody else will begin to hedge and they'll begin to look for ways around dealing with the U.S. how do we, how do we solve this problem without them? And sooner or later, we lose influence in the region and to our detriment.
[36:48]
Nicole Lapin
And they have started a project. I want to get this right. The guardians reporting it like this. An American oil company connected to Donald Trump is preparing to sink wells in remote control Greenland despite not having received permission from the local authorities. As the American president renews his threats to claim the vast Arctic territory, materials to prepare for drilling were brought ashore in recent days on Greenland's eastern coast. This prompted Greenland's government to issue a strong warning that no approval had been granted. From losing a war against an American ally to what, pretending to start one or actually doing things that would start one with an ally. I mean, how do you, how do you assess what's happening in Greenland 1 and how do you take it alongside what Trump has done in Iran too?
[37:39]
Anne Applebaum
So we've all left Greenland aside since the days in January when the Danes were sending troops to Greenland, planning to blow up airport runways just in case the United States was going to invade. But actually there has been a low key, somewhat strange, not exactly covert US Project is the best way I can put it ongoing in Greenland since then, there are a number of US linked companies. The one that you're talking about that The Guardian wrote about has Republican donors as shareholders, has some strange links to the Republican Party of all people. Dr. Phil, the chat show host, has been commissioned by this company to make a documentary about so called the glamour of Wildcat drilling in Greenland. I mean, so there's a, there's an attempt to create a kind of PR effort around the company. And, and as the article said, and as you mentioned from the headline, although they have theoretical permission to drill there because they, they took over a previous company that had that, they don't have specific permission to offload drilling equipment. And so they seem to be doing it in defiance of the government. And so what you're watching is a kind of clumsy, I mean, I would call it a covert operation, except that it's not that covert. It's an attempt to influence Greenland, an attempt to create facts on the ground. And what it will do is create a backlash just like it did in January. But I should say it's one of several similar efforts, many equally clumsy, going on in Greenland now, sort of business people with suspect links being involved in the, in the national conversation there.
[39:22]
Nicole Lapin
It's unbelievable that, Ann, you have to utter the name Dr. Phil involved. I do want to zoom out though, and ask you to give us your sense of where we are as a country and where we're heading. I have to sneak in a quick break first. We'll all be right back on the other side. We're back with Ann and Claire. Ann, I wonder if you could just zoom out and tell us where you think we are with a foreign policy now where we're less central to it and less relevant and less trusted, less respected, with an economy shedding jobs and with another loyalist, perhaps more audacious than the ones atop any other agency. And that's saying a lot when you look at who's at the CIA and the Pentagon. Where is America in your view right now?
[40:18]
Anne Applebaum
For most of our lives, certainly the three of us on this program, we remember the United States as the leader of a large democratic alliance and as a country that promoted the rule of law, as a country that believed in creating a zone of prosperity, of building an economic system, a world system, at least among our allies in Europe and Asia and elsewhere, where countries were treated freely and where everybody was allowed to prosper. And I think that identity, that we were the leading democracy and we were leading a group of other democracies and we believe in the rule of law and in treating other countries fairly that were our allies, I think that identity was very central to who Americans were as well. And Americans got used to the idea that we were a leading nation, that we were doing, if not everything right, that at least we made some efforts and good directions and we had friends in the world. And I think as those things begin to crumble internationally, I think they will affect Americans domestically, maybe in ways that we don't understand. I mean, we. We aren't used to thinking of our country solely and only as a predator nation that goes into Venezuela in order just to take their oil, or as a country who isn't a reliable ally, not even to a country like Denmark, which has been our friend for many decades. And I think that will affect how Americans perceive themselves and how they perceive the country. And I mean, honestly, that's one of the things that worries me the most about our foreign policy, is how it affects our sense of ourselves. And it may take us a long time to recover from the sense that we aren't a leader anymore, we aren't a reliable nation anymore. You know, we treat our friends worse than our enemies.
[42:15]
Nicole Lapin
Yeah. I mean, Claire, there's this cumulative destruction of who people, I think, thought we were destroying. USAID may not have been on the front pages for months and months and months, but people have some awareness that one of the things that chainsaw wielding Elon Musk cut was a program that presidents of both parties touted as helping to eradicate AIDS and malaria and other diseases. The United States of America is losing a war against Iran. And if you don't believe me or Ann or you, you might believe Chris Christie. There are things that now are beyond Trump's wish casting and penchant for lying, that make people, all people, feel terrible about the path that our country's on.
[43:00]
Claire McCaskill
Yeah. For a president who believes that perception is many times way more important than reality, the perception on the world stage now is that we are weaker, that we are not as strong as we were, that we do not have the moral leadership on the global stage that used to be ours. And I think I agree with Ann. It is very, very worrisome that this has occurred. I think it would take a while to overcome it. But also worrisome about this is how many Americans are in denial about it. There are a lot of Americans that are refusing to see what is very plain, and that is that this president has not achieved peace through strength. He has achieved unreliability on the world stage. We can't be trusted. We can't win a war. We declare it is really bad news that we still have a big chunk of Americans that think he's doing just fine.
[44:01]
Nicole Lapin
Yeah, well, shrinking by the day. But I take your point and I share your despair. Ann Appelbaum, thank you so much for joining us on all these stories today. Claire McCaskill, thank you for spending the hour with. After the break, Donald Trump thinks he knows what's best for your kids. The latest executive order he signed this afternoon that also orders his new AG to go after a state that doesn't agree with it. We'll bring that to you next. As if losing the war with Iran and shedding jobs aren't keeping him busy enough. For the third time in less than one year, Donald Trump is calling for fewer vaccines for kids. Last hour, Donald Trump signed a sweeping executive order reducing the number of universally recommended childhood vaccines from 17 to 11. Next to him for the announcement was health secretary vaccine skeptic RFK Jr. Who has driven the Trump administration's campaign against proven life saving vaccines. Despite warnings that this dramatic change in the routine schedule will leave children more susceptible to disease. Trump claimed today, quote, nothing bad can happen from what we're doing, end quote, and announced that his order also, quote, directs the attorney general to advance legal challenges against states that violate children's rights to religious or medical vaccination exemptions, all of it too outrageous for Republican Senator Bill Cassidy to stay silent. Cassidy, who decided cast a deciding vote to make Donald Trump's personal defense lawyer the country's attorney general, posted this a few minutes ago. Quote, I'm a doctor. This executive order is wrong. The president does not have the expertise to make these changes. Maybe you should have pumped the brakes when you could, Senator Cassidy. After the break, Donald Trump's takeover of DOJ is complete thanks to that senator. The danger of what comes now for the rule of law is no longer hiding in the shadows. It's happening. Northern White House continues after a quick break.
[46:10]
Rob Lowe
Hey, everybody, it's Rob Lowe here. If you haven't heard, I have a podcast that's called Literally with Rob Lowe. And basically it's conversations I've had that really make you feel like you're pulling up a chair at an intimate dinner between myself and people that I admire like Aaron Sorkin or Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, Chris Pratt, Michael J. Fox. There are new episodes out every Thursday, so subscribe, please, and listen wherever you get your podcasts.

Summary6 min read

Podcast Summary: Deadline: White House

Episode: “Trump’s Growing Herbert Hoover Obsession”

Host: Nicolle Wallace (MSNBC)
Date: August 10, 2026

Main Theme

This episode explores the political and economic fallout of Donald Trump’s presidency as his approval on handling the economy hits historic lows. The discussion centers on Trump’s increasingly frequent and public comparison of himself to Herbert Hoover—the president most often blamed for the Great Depression—examining why Trump is fixated on avoiding Hoover’s legacy and what that means for the Republican party, voters, and American democracy amid ongoing military and economic crises.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's Polling Collapse and Hoover Obsession

[01:02–03:33]
- Trump’s poll numbers on the economy have reached historic lows, with voters now trusting Democrats more on the economy (Fox News, Wall Street Journal).
- Republicans are reckoning with a generational shift in economic trust, potentially damaging the party’s brand for years.
- Trump repeatedly invokes Herbert Hoover to distance himself from the legacy of presiding over economic disaster.
  - Quote:
    
    “I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover... Rather than possibly going into a depression... I never want to be Herbert Hoover.”
    — Donald Trump [02:51]

2. Economic Reality: Job Losses, Tariffs, and War

[03:33–08:44]
- Steve Liesman (CNBC):
  - The July jobs report shows a loss of 23,000 jobs, reflecting a severe downturn.
  - Two causes:
    - (1) Self-inflicted “speed bumps” (tariffs, Iran war, gas prices).
    - (2) Structural decline: little labor force growth due to anti-immigration policies.
  - Under Trump: 30,000 jobs created per month (vs. 107,000 under Biden).
  - The new economic baseline: even 50,000 jobs added/month is now considered a “good” number.
  - Quote:
    
    “You can go through these cyclical issues and bounce back... But the idea of a secular downturn — that worries me more.”
    — Steve Liesman [05:27]

3. Everyday Economic Anxiety

[08:44–12:09]
- Americans are fixated on basic costs: gas, groceries, and bargain hunting.
- Disconnect between strong corporate profits and widespread financial pain.
- Economic hardship is fueling support for extreme political movements.
  - Claire McCaskill:
    
    “We’re going to have really good corporate profits... That just exacerbates the feeling... That’s what gives strength to the idea we’ve got to upset everything to get anything to happen.” [10:25]

4. The K-Shaped Recovery & Political Instability

[12:09–14:25]
- Charlie Sykes:
  - Economic recovery is benefiting some (“K-shaped”).
  - Voters face anxiety about jobs, especially due to AI; economic instability is leading to political extremes.
  - Trump’s obsession with Hoover reveals his fear of being perceived as a loser, not as corrupt.
  - Quote:
    
    “He doesn’t fear infamy... He fears being portrayed as a loser or as weak, which is why his obsession with Herbert Hoover... is kind of a tell.” [13:39]

5. Business Fear and Market Volatility

[15:00–16:32]
- Business leaders fear unpredictability and Trump’s arbitrary policy decisions.
- Many have benefited from policy concessions in exchange for loyalty but recognize the economic dangers of Hoover-like comparisons.

6. War with Iran: No Exit, No Leverage

[31:12–35:10]
- Chris Christie:
  - Trump is becoming “what he never wanted to be — Jimmy Carter,” trapped in a war with no plan or exit, losing control of the global economy.
  - Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, setting the terms.
- Anne Applebaum:
  - The US has become a bystander, with key negotiations happening without American involvement.
  - American troops and allies are increasingly vulnerable; the U.S. is seen as unreliable.
  - Quote:
    
    “When Trump says, I’m low keying it, what he is actually saying is that the US isn't really participating... the end game of the war is decided without the United States.” [33:42]

7. Corruption and the Trump Family

[21:39–22:20]
- Trump and his sons are profiting more than ever, now as defense contractors.
- The normalization of presidential corruption leads Americans to question if blatant grifting is even illegal.
  - Claire McCaskill:
    
    “Hoover with no intellectual capacity, but surpassing every president in our history in terms of his corrupt greed... It is unbelievably corrupt.” [22:20]

8. Voter Realignment and Democratic Opportunity

[23:24–28:09]
- Americans’ lived experience of economic struggle is shifting traditional party allegiances.
- The margin for Democrats as “better on the economy” is within the margin of error, suggesting a volatile electorate.
- Steve Liesman:
  
  “I would call that a fiscal dead heat on the economy. The change obviously in favor of the Democrats, but... it’s a four point lead and 3.1% margin of error.” [26:40]

9. Foreign Policy Drift & Loss of Leadership

[39:21–42:14]
- The US is losing international trust and its moral high ground due to unreliable leadership and self-serving foreign ventures (ex: drilling in Greenland).
- Americans are struggling to reckon with a new reality where the country is no longer the world’s respected leader.
  - Anne Applebaum:
    
    “It may take us a long time to recover from the sense that we aren’t a leader anymore, we aren’t a reliable nation anymore. You know, we treat our friends worse than our enemies.” [40:17]

10. Trump’s Executive Order: Fewer Vaccines, More Division

[44:00–46:09]
- Trump orders a reduction in recommended childhood vaccines.
- His new Attorney General is tasked with challenging states that resist.
- The move is condemned even by some Republicans as anti-scientific and reckless.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Donald Trump, on avoiding the Hoover label:

“I never want to be Herbert Hoover.” [02:51]
Steve Liesman, on the secular downturn:

“But the idea of a secular downturn ... that’s the one that worries me more.” [05:27]
Charlie Sykes, on Trump’s psychology:

“He doesn’t fear infamy... He fears being portrayed as a loser or as weak, which is why his obsession with Herbert Hoover... is kind of a tell.” [13:39]
Chris Christie, on Trump as Carter:

“Donald Trump is about to become what he never, ever wanted to be. Jimmy Carter, yes, he is being held hostage by Iran.” [31:12]
Anne Applebaum, on U.S. decline:

“We treat our friends worse than our enemies.” [40:17]
Claire McCaskill, on corruption:

“Hoover with no intellectual capacity, but surpassing every president in... corrupt greed.” [22:20]

Timestamps for Important Segments

Trump’s Hoover fixation & polling crisis: [01:02–03:33]
Economic downturn analyzed: [05:27–08:44]
Everyday Americans’ economic pain: [08:44–12:09]
Political instability and “two Americas”: [12:09–14:25]
Business leaders’ fear: [15:00–16:32]
Iran war as dead-end: [31:12–35:10]
Trump family corruption: [21:39–22:20]
Party realignment & polling nuances: [23:24–28:09]
U.S. foreign leadership erodes: [39:21–42:14]
Vaccine executive order controversy: [44:00–46:09]

Tone & Conclusions

Using sharp wit and seasoned political insight, Nicolle Wallace and her panel paint a bleak picture of Trump’s presidency: driven by personal insecurity, marked by corruption, and presiding over profound economic and international decline. The shadow of Hoover serves as a metaphor for the deep anxiety within Trump and among Republicans. With Americans suffering economic pain and disillusionment at home and abroad, the conversation suggests a critical inflection point for both parties and the nation’s identity.

Loading summary

Transcript61 lines

[00:01]
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[00:54]
Charlie Sykes
Never know how.
[01:02]
Nicole Lapin
Hi there everyone. Happy Monday. It's 4 o' clock in the east as Donald Trump's rapidly declining poll numbers on the economy reach the category of officially historically bad. The Republicans who have enabled him are now facing a cold, hard political reality that Donald Trump may have created a generational shift in terms of who voters trust to handle the economy, one that extends far beyond Donald Trump, tainting his entire party in the process. The Wall Street Journal reports this quote with voters negative impressions now hardening, some Republican and independent analysts say Trump and his GOP allies have little time to regain a key asset, their image as the party better suited to handle the economy. For the gop, the fear is that voters who back the party in 2024, believing Trump would ease the cost of living, will either stay home or defect this November. One political scientist at Vanderbilt University tells the Wall Street Journal this quote, the set of events that would need to happen to produce a real change in the Republican Party's fortune is pretty big. The Journal notes this quote for the first time since 2010, Fox News polls find voters citing Democrats as better on the economy than Republicans. Democrats led by 4 points on the question in April and by 9 points by July, whereas the GOP was viewed as the better economic manager by as much as 15 points in 2022 and 2023. Well, how bad is it? It is so bad that at this point, you can't even make it up. Trump is desperately fending off comparisons to the president most Americans associate as the worst of the Great Depression.
[02:48]
Claire McCaskill
Watch.
[02:51]
Donald Trump
I have one primary wish as president in terms of people. I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover. I don't want to be a president that oversees the great worldwide Depression that was Herbert Hoover and it was a terrible thing. Rather than possibly going into a depression, rather than having your favorite president be Herbert Hoover. I never want to be Herbert Hoover. When I didn't say it would cause a depression, I said it could cause a depression. Right? And they said that I don't want to be Herbert Hoover.
[03:33]
Nicole Lapin
For a guy who does not know a lot about history, he sure seems obsessed with Herbert Hoover. NPR is reporting this about Trump's growing Herbert Hoover obsession as his war with Iran continues to put pressure on Americans finances. Quote, behind the scenes and in public remarks, Trump has acknowledged seeking an agreement to end the Iran war in hopes of escaping comparisons to former President Herbert Hoover, the Republican whose name became synonymous with economic collapse after the Great Depression. It is recognition that he may be judged not only by what happens on the battlefield, but by the impacts on inflation, gas prices and voters lives at home. For Trump, that concern is more urgent as the war takes a toll on energy and inflation. The Trump economic message morphing from I alone can fix it to I'm not Herbert Hoover. Bad is where we begin today with some of our favorite reporters and friends. Senior economics reporter for cnbc, Steve Liesman's back with us. Also back with us, Charlie Sykes is the author of the to the Contrary newsletter. And joining us as well, our friend, political analyst, former Senator Claire McCaskill, who's with us for the hour. Steve, first just help us understand where we are in terms of this latest jobs report. Our headline was this US economy loses 23,000 jobs in July as Trump era economy continues to struggle. I think people could tell you this story. They've been able to tell you this story for many, many, many, many months with the tariffs sort of laying the foundation for their economic anxiety. And then the war in Iran maxing it out as their credit cards maxed out and their economic anger maxed out. But tell me what, what it seems like the data has caught up with that lived reality.
[05:27]
Steve Liesman
Well, it's clear that we've had a major downshift in job growth and I think think there's two potential sources there. And actually it's the second one, the one people don't talk about, that is the one that's more worrisome to me. The first downshift in growth for jobs comes from the idea that maybe the economy is cooling some and you've had all of these speed bumps along the way. These are self inflicted speed bumps, if I can mix a couple of metaphors there. The first one being the tariffs. The second one Being the war in Iran and the spike in gas prices. The other element which is more worrisome to me because you can go through these cyclical issues and you can bounce back and things can be okay, is this idea that we have basically decided not to have any labor force growth. You have very little population growth domestically among the native population. And we have decided not to allow many immigrants into the country and kick a bunch out. So what's happened, Nicole, is that the, what you would call the average number of jobs needed in this economy or the amount of labor force available has come way down. And so I was just looking at some numbers. Under Donald Trump, we've created 30,000 jobs a month over the 19 months that you could count he's been in office before that, it was 107,000amonth in the last 12 months of the Biden administration. So there has been a combination of a cyclical downturn where, which is something that can go up and down and maybe less worrisome. But the idea that what you would call in economics a secular downturn, in other words, one that is more permanent and part of policy, that's the one that worries me more.
[07:10]
Nicole Lapin
What could be done about that second one?
[07:14]
Steve Liesman
Well, labor force growth, I mean, that's, you know, how do you do that? Economics can sound, economics can sound very complicated. There's only two ways to grow the economy. You work more or you work more productively. Those two combinations are essentially what give you GDP growth. That's your economics one on one lesson for the day. And the story is that we can grow by being more productive. Maybe AI is going to provide that. But the other part of that equation is labor force growth. And you could have immigration population, you could have native domestic population growth. But when we've decided essentially to both kick out foreigners and deportations and stop immigration and bring that number way down, you lose that. And think about the number of businesses that their business plan is essentially, well, we're going to work really hard. We're going to gain some market share. We're going to be more productive. But we also have this other thing going for us was that the population grows. Well, guess what? We may be in the middle of a major reset here in this country where we don't have population force. I'll give you an example. We sit here and we do 8:30 the first Friday of every month on CNBC. We do the jobs report. A number comes out, it's 100,000. That's pretty good. 150,000, that's pretty good. 200,000. That's a big number. Well, guess what, folks? Reset. Get rid of all those expectations. It comes in at 50 now. That's a good number. Minus 23. Well, maybe now we're flirting with both a secular downturn and a cyclical downturn, and it's something to worry about.
[08:44]
Nicole Lapin
Claire, I think that my sort of lifelong goal is to be able to talk to Steve Liesman on television. And I'm a work in progress on that. But I think that if you're out in the country this summer, if you're at baseball games, if you're at the grocery store, if you're at swim meets, if you're at soccer games, if you're at basketball camp, if you're talking to anybody about anything. You are talking about where the cheapest gas is. You are talking about stuff like where the cheapest packs of chicken breasts can be. People are talking about how expensive life has become. People are talking without shame about bargain hunting. People are commiserating about how quickly it's become this bad, and that's what's happening. And Trump calling affordability a hoax is, you know, politically, the Republicans deserve what they get. But in terms of what they've done to people's sense of economic security, it really is in terms of lived experiences, to borrow Steve's word, absolutely unforced errors.
[10:00]
Claire McCaskill
Yeah. And the thing that I worry about, I understand Steve, is looking at this through the lens of the economy. I'm looking through it as the lens of political reality. And what I worry most about is the disconnect between the policymakers in the White house and the 40 to 60% of Americans that are living paycheck to paycheck. We're going to have really good corporate profits.
[10:25]
Nicole Lapin
Right.
[10:25]
Claire McCaskill
And that just exacerbates the feeling that people have, wait a minute, these corporations are making all this money. These executives are making all this money. These billionaires are getting created at a record pace in America. That's what's giving strength to the movements on the extremes. That's what's giving strength to the idea that we've got to, like, really upset everything in order to get anything to happen for the folks who are struggling. And that's what really worries me. That's when you end up with kind of political upheaval that really does some lasting damage to democracy. So I'm hoping that the Democrats can get back to talking about real policy issues that can make a difference for that 40 to 60% of America. You know, lots of folks watching CNBC are looking at the stock market. But lots of other folks are looking at the monthly bills and realizing they don't have enough to pay them.
[11:21]
Nicole Lapin
Charlie, to Claire's point, let me read you the CNBC reporting. Affordability is a defining challenge for Americans. With food costs leading the way, affordability is the defining challenge when it comes to economic mobility. According to a new report by McKinsey, the survey of 30,000Americans across income levels found that 90% of those polled cited groceries and food prices as a top cost concern, even over other key expenses such as housing and healthcare. Now, that doesn't mean that housing and healthcare have gone down. People are still pretty upset about those. But it means that the thing you need to go do every day or every couple of days, depending on the size of your family, is so in your face. And that's the price you pay at wherever you shop, stop and shop, or wherever you publix, or wherever you're doing your regular family shopping.
[12:10]
Charlie Sykes
Well, I appreciate Claire's point because we really do have two Americas. You ask what is the source of this economic anxiety? People look at the stock market and it's incredibly high. But this is a K shaped recovery where you do have Americans having that lived experience of being concerned. This is the defining issue of this midterm election, the economy. And this administration is incredibly tone deaf about it. Also, Donald Trump backed himself into a corner. He is obsessed with tariffs and he's got himself into a quagmire in Iran. We are three months away from the midterm elections and there's no indication that he's got any exit strategy from either from Iran or from the trade wars that he's launched. Not to mention the fact that many of those people who are worried about paying the bills and putting gas in their car and buying groceries are also concerned about what's going to happen to my job with AI, the AI revolution. And I think all of this does come together in terms of this, this, this almost revolutionary sense of anxiety that we have. Can I make one other sense? We've talked about economics, we talked about politics. I'd like to talk about psychology. This is a really interesting insight into Donald Trump's psychology because it's very rare and of course, we're hesitant to go into the dark recesses of Donald Trump's mind. But you can tell what he really fears most. He doesn't fear infamy. He doesn't being remembered as a corrupt individual. What he fears is being portrayed as a loser or as weak, which is why his obsession with Herbert Hoover, even though he's adopted the Smoot Hawley economic approach, you know, is kind of a tell. What does Donald Trump most fear? He fears being remembered as Herbert Hoover on the economy and he fears being remembered as Jimmy Carter on Iran. And those are the things that are rattling around in his head because here's a guy that just months ago was talking about himself being a new Caesar, Napoleon, Alexander the Great. But you know, when he's alone at 3am Donald Trump is thinking, oh my God, maybe I'll end up as Herbert Hoover, maybe I'll end up as Jimmy Carter. So we're getting a glimpse of what Donald Trump fears the most.
[14:26]
Nicole Lapin
Yeah, I mean, Steve, if you could just pull that thread. I mean, what do you, what do business leaders fear the most? I know that they've sort of been like teenagers consuming his social media and always like reading the most positive thing out of his inane posts, which Iran and most political watchers no longer believe are good for anything but the market seems to cast the most optimistic view on the things he posts. What do, I mean, what do they think about the comparison to Herbert Hoover?
[15:00]
Steve Liesman
Well, first, I think one of the things business leaders fear the most is Donald Trump. Right? I mean, there have been tremendous efforts on the part of the CEOs of the biggest corporations in order to make sure they're not on his bad side. Because policy, business policy, economic policy in the United States right now is very random and tied to the whims of Donald Trump. And that's a very big deal. And that's why you have all of these contributions to all these projects of his. And I guess the returns on those contributions have been in many cases pretty darn good for the business leaders in terms of getting either regulations that they want, regulations passed, regulations removed, as well as government contracts. So that's a big deal right there. In terms of the Herbert Hoover comparison, I really don't even want to go there because it's not a very pleasant comparison when we think about it. It's, it's 20 plus percent unemployment, 25%, I believe, was what happened in the Great Depression. And it went on for many, many years. And I guess the issue right now is we are tremendously extended when it comes to the investment in AI and the stock market. This may turn out just fine and be the huge revolution in technology and business and the economy that everybody hopes for. But it can go badly. And I've been through enough of these to know that it indeed can go badly. And when it starts to crumble if it doesn't come return the results that people expect, it would be very painful.
[16:33]
Nicole Lapin
All right, no one's going anywhere. And I'm going to, I'm going to make one more run at you, Steve, because it's Donald Trump. He's talking about Herbert Hoover for the, you know, it's a rare instance for the comparisons or projections from him himself also had for us. Charlie teased it for us. But there is another president Donald Trump has tried very hard to run from a new warning about turning into Jimmy Carter when it comes to the war with Iran. From a one time close advisor and ally of Donald Trump's. And later in the broadcast, Trump's yes man at DOJ is now officially the country's Attorney general. Todd Blanche's presence sending a chill among those who value the rule of law, the rule of one man, as fears grow about what he will be pressured to do now that he's in the top job officially. All those stories and much more when Deadline White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere.
[17:27]
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[17:57]
Nicole Lapin
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[18:07]
Steve Liesman
you when you're on we're on Ford Pro.
[18:13]
Julian Barnes
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[19:07]
Unidentified Interviewer
And for the average American out there, I mean, polling indicates that they feel an inflation problem, that they are feeling the Costs go up in housing and medical expenses, dining out in the last CPI report. I mean, how do you address that? I mean, you can, you can point to all the numbers you want in the economic data. I don't know if it's a perception problem, but that's what they're feeling out there, right?
[19:28]
Charlie Sykes
Well, absolutely.
[19:29]
Steve Liesman
You know, we understand what people are feeling.
[19:31]
Charlie Sykes
And in part it came about because of the runaway inflation under Joe Biden.
[19:38]
Nicole Lapin
I mean, Steve, back to your point about not wanting to go there with Herbert Hoover. It's Donald Trump that keeps going there with Herbert Hoover. We could have made a match three times that long for all of the obsessive things he says about not wanting to be Herbert Hoover. And we could have made one 10 times that long about all the attacks on Joe Biden's economy. I mean, these are their projections and deflections. And I wonder if any of it is rooted in anything defensively true.
[20:05]
Steve Liesman
Well, I mean, the real facts are that Donald Trump had an opportunity to deliver much lower inflation to the American public. By the time he took office, the inflation that happened under the Biden administration was waning. It was down to about 3% or so. It had come down quite sharply as a result of largely Federal Reserve rate hikes. It's interesting that he hated Jay Powell, but Jay Powell raised interest rates very sharply. The American public lived through a very difficult time in terms of enduring higher prices. But that inflation, which of course I mean the rate of price growth, I don't mean the level of prices because prices did not come down. But Donald Trump had an opportunity to build on that. Instead, he created the tariffs that created inflation and higher prices. And then we had the war with Iran that created further higher prices. It is possible that we have maybe seen the worst of it, but it's also equally possible that things get worse from here. We are not making any progress in the Strait of Hormuz, and it may be, and this is what I suspect, that we haven't seen the worst of the gas price increases. And I think this gets to the polling that your astute political observers are talking about, which is Donald Trump came in promising he was going to lower prices, lower mortgage rates. Instead, mortgage rates are higher, they're nearing 7%. Prices are higher and moving at a clip that is above what the Federal Reserve wants, above what most economists think is healthy for an economy. So we may have a little relief in the next couple reports, but we'll have to watch the price of oil here, which is back up again.
[21:40]
Nicole Lapin
Claire, I also Think this is the point where all we use the word grifting, but stealing from the taxpayer to enrich himself and his two sons is what is in the papers every day. And it's increasingly in local papers. The sons are getting so rich quickly and refusing to apologize when asked about it. So there's real saturation of the facts. Again, it's not an attack, it's a fact that they brag about that Donald Trump has made more money than he ever made in his life in the 15 months he's been back in the Oval Office. And his two adult sons have made more money than they've ever made in their lives as first time defense contractors. People are not stupid. They know that that is corrupt.
[22:20]
Claire McCaskill
Yeah, I would say that Donald Trump could easily turn out to definitely be Jimmy Carter, but with no morals. Or Hoover. Hoover with no intellectual capacity, but surpassing every president in our history in terms of his corrupt greed. I mean, just pure greed. And people see that for what it is, whether it's all the gold tchotchkes in the Oval Office to his ridiculous way he's taking payment for inside information on stock trades to all the crypto and taking money from any foreign entity for his crypto with no questions asked. It is unbelievably corrupt. It is so corrupt that people are thinking, well, because it's so much out in the open, it can't be really illegal. Yeah, it can be. He just feels really emboldened by the immunity that the Supreme Court gave him. Time will tell whether that immunity holds up.
[23:25]
Nicole Lapin
Charlie, the realignment on the economy is one of those things that in my political life, you know, you wish that you're working on Republican campaigns when your advantage on the economy is what the Democrats are staring at right now. I mean, it is. People have turned against Republicans on the economy so quickly, the proof points are in their lives. Right. You don't, you don't need to pay for a bunch of ads to tell people how bad things are. The things are in their face in everyday ways, whether they're filling up or not. They see it every time they drive past the gas station, as we talked about the grocery store and a cart of whatever you need for back to school at Walmart or Target is more than it was a year ago, and it's definitely more than it was two years ago. What do you make or what are your thoughts about how the Democrats really keep the focus on those economic realities for Americans ahead of the midterms and ahead of the next presidential.
[24:21]
Charlie Sykes
Well, they ought to be able to do that relatively easily because as you point out, those realities are right in front of the American people. But also remind the American people to pick up on Steve's word. Donald Trump had an opportunity here to turn the economy around and imagine what the economy would look like if we did not have the tariffs, if we did not have the war with Iran, if we did not have the kind of grip. And not only do the American people see the cost of living in that promise broken and see Donald Trump's corruption, they are seeing a system that the inequality has gotten to the point where I don't care how conservative you are, you have to realize that this does not add to stabilization, that people look at the system and they do think that it's rigged. And I think Claire made this point. This leads to a great deal of instability as people flock to the extreme. So I think what Democrats need to do is to find a way to convince the American public that not only do they understand their problems, but that they actually have solutions that will make things better, that will lower the cost of living, that will even the playing field. What Americans want is they want opportunity, they want security, and they want some kind of stability. Donald Trump has given them anxiety, deep inequality and a sense that things have gone off the rails. And I think that, you know, again, all of these things I think play together, the corruption, the inequality, the fail, the broken promise of lowering the cost of living. And I think that that mood is growing and I don't think it's going to change between now and the midterm. What Democrats shouldn't do is to sleep on what the Republican strategy will be, which is, number one, cast them as socialists and communists, as Hillary Clinton warned over the weekend, you know, this can be effective. And secondly, Republicans are going to lean very heavily into culture war issues. But I'm not sure that that's going to be enough to counter the headwinds they're facing on the economy this year.
[26:31]
Nicole Lapin
Steve, what is your sense of how businesses ride out two more years of Donald Trump if Democrats take control of Con?
[26:40]
Steve Liesman
Well, I think it'll matter to them if Democrats do take control of Congress. I think that'll be something that to some might offer some relief from the pressure that they get from the White House to do certain things. Nicole, can I just step out, make a quick statistical point relative to your last question and the last answer there, The Fox News poll you cite cites a four point advantage on the question of our Democrats better than Republicans on the economy. If I was a Democrat, I'd be happy about the change, which was plus 9 points, but I'm guessing that that poll has a 3.1% plus or minus margin of error. So I don't think I'd get out the pom poms and start to celebrate my lead over the Republicans on the economy. I think what was just said that the Democrats have quite a bit of convincing to do. I would call that a fiscal dead heat on the economy. The change obviously in favor of the Democrats, but the idea that it's a four point lead and a 3.1% margin of error is not a tremendous lead.
[27:39]
Nicole Lapin
I guess I would say one. Have you met a Democrat lately? They seem to never have any pom poms, even when they do win. And I mean, it's a good. It's a good point. I mean, I think the way we consume polls here, on our show at least, is directionally, and I think directionally it's seismic. Since Donald Trump descended the elevator, people have felt that his ostentatious and tacky wealth was contagious. I remember when he had his helicopter in Iowa. It is. Just go ahead.
[28:09]
Steve Liesman
Yeah. This is the central question because our CNBC polling also finds. Our last poll a month or so ago found Donald Trump more underwater on the economy than he'd ever been. And in the first term, he was always a boy above water or had better than his overall approval. And the central question that we keep polling about is, is the. Are the negative views of Americans on the economy something that the Democrats will capitalize on or not? In this election,
[28:37]
Nicole Lapin
voters will always give us their answer better than any of us can guess. Steve, Charlie, thank you both so much for starting us off. Claire sticks around for the hour when she and I come back with no way out of the war in Iran and no leverage for Donald Trump, the guy who says he's the world's greatest negotiator. Trump's war of choice in Iran seems to be going nowhere good. We'll look at the dangerous things he could do next.
[29:07]
VisualDx Advertiser
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[29:37]
Rob Lowe
Hey, everybody, it's Rob Lowe here, if you haven't heard. I have a podcast that's called Literally with Rob Lowe. And basically it's conversations I've had that really make you feel like you're pulling up a chair at an intimate dinner between myself and people that I admire, like Aaron Sorkin or Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, Chris Pratt, Michael J. Fox. There are new episodes out every Thursday, so subscribe please and listen wherever you get your podcasts.
[30:11]
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[30:16]
Nick Confessori
I decided to just focus on the University of Michigan. I obtained internal documents that showed that the school had spent about a quarter of a billion dollars on DEI programs. I spent two weeks in Ann Arbor talking to everybody I could find the unintended consequences of these programs. They had sort of left everybody dissatisfied and this expensive machinery the school had built just imploded. If you're a journalist, you are not on anyone's team. All you're trying to do is figure out as many of the facts as you can gather. The facts are going to guide you to where the story lands. You're not taking sides. I'm Nick Confessori. I'm an investigations reporter for the New York Times.
[30:57]
Tabs Advertiser
Journalists like Nick follow the facts wherever they lead. They go where news breaks, get answers
[31:03]
Nicole Lapin
firsthand and publish what they find.
[31:05]
Tabs Advertiser
That's fact based reporting.
[31:07]
Nicole Lapin
Seek it out if you don't already.
[31:12]
Chris Christie
Look, the real problem here is it was an adventure without a plan. What struck me was that Donald Trump is about to become what he never, ever wanted to be. Jimmy Carter, yes, he is being held hostage by Iran. They are holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage. As a result, they're holding the world economy hostage and it's focused at Donald Trump. And here we are. And it was all voluntary.
[31:45]
Nicole Lapin
Sums it all up. What's notable there is that is Republican Chris Christie, one time supporter, friend and ally of Donald Trump's, describing the war in Iran as it is a disaster of Donald Trump's own making, that Donald Trump is now stuck in a war and an economic crisis that he created that he started with no plan to begin with and more than five months in, little or no options and absolutely no leverage over Iran. Now a defiant Iran is vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the US Meets a sweeping list of steep demands that now includes billions of dollars in war reparations. In recent days, Donald Trump has said he was both prepared to launch the biggest attack since World War II, and he has said that he is convinced that a Deal with Iran is once again imminent. Now Donald Trump is signaling that he's actually in no rush at all to get the United States of America out of the war with Iran. In a new interview with Axios, Trump declared the US Is now, as the kids say, low keying it with Iran and only semi negotiating with them. Those are quotes. Instead, Trump said, quote, we're just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money, end quote. But don't worry, Trump says, because, quote, it will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game. I want to bring in Ann Applebaum. She's of course, a columnist for the Atlantic and the host of the podcast Autocracy in America. Claire's still with us. Ann, which chapter of the autocrat?
[33:24]
Anne Applebaum
I'm sorry, I missed the last part of the question. I mean, I think what we're seeing is. Say that again.
[33:30]
Nicole Lapin
Go ahead. I just said, which part of an autocrat's advantage is starting a war that the country doesn't support and then very publicly losing it?
[33:42]
Anne Applebaum
I don't think it's really to anybody's advantage, whether they're an autocrat or a Democrat. Trump started the war on false premises. He imagined it would work out the same way as Venezuela. Instead, as you've just heard, it's working out a little bit more like America's relation with Iran in 1979. I think the most important thing, though, to note now is that the US Is actually less and less of a participant in the war, so. Or in the negotiations to end the war. So the main negotiation is now going on between Iran and Oman and they are working out in very great detail how to manage the Strait of Hormuz. I presume that the rest of the Middle east is negotiating with them and the US Is now a kind of secondary player. So when Trump says, I'm low keying it, whatever that means, what he is actually saying is that the US Isn't really participating. And it may be that the end game of the war is decided without the United States or with. To the disadvantage of the United States, because they, you know, if the, if Iran and Oman figure out how to control the Strait and then simply make demands of America and the US has no more leverage. We're running out of weapons. We don't have ideas. We don't have as many friends in the Middle east as we used to, then it will get decided without us.
[35:10]
Nicole Lapin
What does that mean in terms of our ability to protect? I mean, America still has troops in the region. There are sailors who have been on the USS Lincoln now for many, many months. I mean, what does that mean for the United States military to take such a backseat?
[35:29]
Anne Applebaum
It means that our troops are in danger because they become sitting ducks. They become part of a game that Iran can play. If they want to put up pressure on the US or they want to put pressure on US Allies, it means that we have less say and less influence in other regional capitals. I think that's starting to happen already. You can see the Gulf states looking for other links, other friends. They're talking to Europeans, they're talking to the Ukrainians actually about how to defend against drones and how to defend against Iran as they begin to lose faith in their alliance with the United States. I mean, this is a long term process and it will play out over many years. But the fact that the US Is now not a reliable negotiator. In other words, what the President says one day he can contradict the next day. And the US Is not a reliable player. So it's unpredictable. It's not clear what its strategy is. It's not a country that anybody can rely on. All of that means that everybody else will begin to hedge and they'll begin to look for ways around dealing with the U.S. how do we, how do we solve this problem without them? And sooner or later, we lose influence in the region and to our detriment.
[36:48]
Nicole Lapin
And they have started a project. I want to get this right. The guardians reporting it like this. An American oil company connected to Donald Trump is preparing to sink wells in remote control Greenland despite not having received permission from the local authorities. As the American president renews his threats to claim the vast Arctic territory, materials to prepare for drilling were brought ashore in recent days on Greenland's eastern coast. This prompted Greenland's government to issue a strong warning that no approval had been granted. From losing a war against an American ally to what, pretending to start one or actually doing things that would start one with an ally. I mean, how do you, how do you assess what's happening in Greenland 1 and how do you take it alongside what Trump has done in Iran too?
[37:39]
Anne Applebaum
So we've all left Greenland aside since the days in January when the Danes were sending troops to Greenland, planning to blow up airport runways just in case the United States was going to invade. But actually there has been a low key, somewhat strange, not exactly covert US Project is the best way I can put it ongoing in Greenland since then, there are a number of US linked companies. The one that you're talking about that The Guardian wrote about has Republican donors as shareholders, has some strange links to the Republican Party of all people. Dr. Phil, the chat show host, has been commissioned by this company to make a documentary about so called the glamour of Wildcat drilling in Greenland. I mean, so there's a, there's an attempt to create a kind of PR effort around the company. And, and as the article said, and as you mentioned from the headline, although they have theoretical permission to drill there because they, they took over a previous company that had that, they don't have specific permission to offload drilling equipment. And so they seem to be doing it in defiance of the government. And so what you're watching is a kind of clumsy, I mean, I would call it a covert operation, except that it's not that covert. It's an attempt to influence Greenland, an attempt to create facts on the ground. And what it will do is create a backlash just like it did in January. But I should say it's one of several similar efforts, many equally clumsy, going on in Greenland now, sort of business people with suspect links being involved in the, in the national conversation there.
[39:22]
Nicole Lapin
It's unbelievable that, Ann, you have to utter the name Dr. Phil involved. I do want to zoom out though, and ask you to give us your sense of where we are as a country and where we're heading. I have to sneak in a quick break first. We'll all be right back on the other side. We're back with Ann and Claire. Ann, I wonder if you could just zoom out and tell us where you think we are with a foreign policy now where we're less central to it and less relevant and less trusted, less respected, with an economy shedding jobs and with another loyalist, perhaps more audacious than the ones atop any other agency. And that's saying a lot when you look at who's at the CIA and the Pentagon. Where is America in your view right now?
[40:18]
Anne Applebaum
For most of our lives, certainly the three of us on this program, we remember the United States as the leader of a large democratic alliance and as a country that promoted the rule of law, as a country that believed in creating a zone of prosperity, of building an economic system, a world system, at least among our allies in Europe and Asia and elsewhere, where countries were treated freely and where everybody was allowed to prosper. And I think that identity, that we were the leading democracy and we were leading a group of other democracies and we believe in the rule of law and in treating other countries fairly that were our allies, I think that identity was very central to who Americans were as well. And Americans got used to the idea that we were a leading nation, that we were doing, if not everything right, that at least we made some efforts and good directions and we had friends in the world. And I think as those things begin to crumble internationally, I think they will affect Americans domestically, maybe in ways that we don't understand. I mean, we. We aren't used to thinking of our country solely and only as a predator nation that goes into Venezuela in order just to take their oil, or as a country who isn't a reliable ally, not even to a country like Denmark, which has been our friend for many decades. And I think that will affect how Americans perceive themselves and how they perceive the country. And I mean, honestly, that's one of the things that worries me the most about our foreign policy, is how it affects our sense of ourselves. And it may take us a long time to recover from the sense that we aren't a leader anymore, we aren't a reliable nation anymore. You know, we treat our friends worse than our enemies.
[42:15]
Nicole Lapin
Yeah. I mean, Claire, there's this cumulative destruction of who people, I think, thought we were destroying. USAID may not have been on the front pages for months and months and months, but people have some awareness that one of the things that chainsaw wielding Elon Musk cut was a program that presidents of both parties touted as helping to eradicate AIDS and malaria and other diseases. The United States of America is losing a war against Iran. And if you don't believe me or Ann or you, you might believe Chris Christie. There are things that now are beyond Trump's wish casting and penchant for lying, that make people, all people, feel terrible about the path that our country's on.
[43:00]
Claire McCaskill
Yeah. For a president who believes that perception is many times way more important than reality, the perception on the world stage now is that we are weaker, that we are not as strong as we were, that we do not have the moral leadership on the global stage that used to be ours. And I think I agree with Ann. It is very, very worrisome that this has occurred. I think it would take a while to overcome it. But also worrisome about this is how many Americans are in denial about it. There are a lot of Americans that are refusing to see what is very plain, and that is that this president has not achieved peace through strength. He has achieved unreliability on the world stage. We can't be trusted. We can't win a war. We declare it is really bad news that we still have a big chunk of Americans that think he's doing just fine.
[44:01]
Nicole Lapin
Yeah, well, shrinking by the day. But I take your point and I share your despair. Ann Appelbaum, thank you so much for joining us on all these stories today. Claire McCaskill, thank you for spending the hour with. After the break, Donald Trump thinks he knows what's best for your kids. The latest executive order he signed this afternoon that also orders his new AG to go after a state that doesn't agree with it. We'll bring that to you next. As if losing the war with Iran and shedding jobs aren't keeping him busy enough. For the third time in less than one year, Donald Trump is calling for fewer vaccines for kids. Last hour, Donald Trump signed a sweeping executive order reducing the number of universally recommended childhood vaccines from 17 to 11. Next to him for the announcement was health secretary vaccine skeptic RFK Jr. Who has driven the Trump administration's campaign against proven life saving vaccines. Despite warnings that this dramatic change in the routine schedule will leave children more susceptible to disease. Trump claimed today, quote, nothing bad can happen from what we're doing, end quote, and announced that his order also, quote, directs the attorney general to advance legal challenges against states that violate children's rights to religious or medical vaccination exemptions, all of it too outrageous for Republican Senator Bill Cassidy to stay silent. Cassidy, who decided cast a deciding vote to make Donald Trump's personal defense lawyer the country's attorney general, posted this a few minutes ago. Quote, I'm a doctor. This executive order is wrong. The president does not have the expertise to make these changes. Maybe you should have pumped the brakes when you could, Senator Cassidy. After the break, Donald Trump's takeover of DOJ is complete thanks to that senator. The danger of what comes now for the rule of law is no longer hiding in the shadows. It's happening. Northern White House continues after a quick break.
[46:10]
Rob Lowe
Hey, everybody, it's Rob Lowe here. If you haven't heard, I have a podcast that's called Literally with Rob Lowe. And basically it's conversations I've had that really make you feel like you're pulling up a chair at an intimate dinner between myself and people that I admire like Aaron Sorkin or Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, Chris Pratt, Michael J. Fox. There are new episodes out every Thursday, so subscribe, please, and listen wherever you get your podcasts.

“Trump’s growing Herbert Hoover obsession”

“Trump’s growing Herbert Hoover obsession”

Podcast Summary: Deadline: White House

Episode: “Trump’s Growing Herbert Hoover Obsession”

Main Theme

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's Polling Collapse and Hoover Obsession

2. Economic Reality: Job Losses, Tariffs, and War

3. Everyday Economic Anxiety

4. The K-Shaped Recovery & Political Instability

5. Business Fear and Market Volatility

6. War with Iran: No Exit, No Leverage

7. Corruption and the Trump Family

8. Voter Realignment and Democratic Opportunity

9. Foreign Policy Drift & Loss of Leadership

10. Trump’s Executive Order: Fewer Vaccines, More Division

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Important Segments

Tone & Conclusions

Podcast Summary: Deadline: White House

Episode: “Trump’s Growing Herbert Hoover Obsession”

Main Theme

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's Polling Collapse and Hoover Obsession

2. Economic Reality: Job Losses, Tariffs, and War

3. Everyday Economic Anxiety

4. The K-Shaped Recovery & Political Instability

5. Business Fear and Market Volatility

6. War with Iran: No Exit, No Leverage

7. Corruption and the Trump Family

8. Voter Realignment and Democratic Opportunity

9. Foreign Policy Drift & Loss of Leadership

10. Trump’s Executive Order: Fewer Vaccines, More Division

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Important Segments

Tone & Conclusions