
Two of the leading experts on anti-obesity drugs say the drugs are heralding a new era in medicine and could soon be used to treat a raft of other conditions. David Ricks, the chair and chief executive of Eli Lilly, and Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford, obesity medicine physician at Massachusetts General Hospital/Harvard Medical School, talk through the groundbreaking role of GLP-1 medications in transforming the treatment of obesity, and how the drug could potentially be used to treat alcohol use disorder or other addictions.
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David Ricks
What did oral contraception do for women? Right. It allowed people to control their reproduction. Maybe the dream scenario here is we can use these medicines to control like our urges and including food. But maybe other things that would be, I think, a breakthrough across health.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
This is Andrew Ross Sorkin with the New York Times, and you're listening to interviews from our annual Dealbook Summit Live event recorded on December 4th in New York City.
I've been excited about this conversation for a very, very long time. When you think right now about the most significant innovations of our lifetime, those with potential to change humanity and our health, one of them is, of course, the new blockbuster drug class of drugs called GLP1s. And that's the conversation I really wanted to have today. You know these names like Ozempic, Manjaro, Wegovy, Together they're projected to generate more than $20 billion in annual sales. And the promise of GLP1s is beyond weight loss. Early studies suggest it may help with Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, liver disease, kidney failure, even sleep apnea. And we're learning more every single day. And so to explore all of this and, and what it means for society, please join me in welcoming the following people. David Ricks is here. He's the CEO of Eli Lilly. It's the world's most valuable pharmaceutical company, more than $750 billion. Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford is here. She's a leading expert on obesity. She's a professor at Harvard Medical School, physician at Massachusetts General Hospital. And as I said at the very beginning of the day, she happens to be Oprah's go to expert on this very topic. So thank you both for being here. I saw you a couple months ago when we were talking about how this may very well be a miracle drug. And that's what it feels like, that's what it seems like to a lot of us. And I just want to really understand whether it is in your mind and how far you think it really can go in terms of what it is capable of, because we've seen what it can do for weight loss, but we're really now talking about it doing a lot more than that.
David Ricks
Yeah, well, you know, we've been working in the space for a long time. We launched the first GLP1 medication in 2005. And when I say that, a lot of people find that odd because this feels like a very new story. But a lot of drug development happens that way as we kind of stumble and sometimes discover our way into new spaces. We basically, this GLP1 is a hormone that our guts secrete after we eat. There are other hormones like it, by the way, which is going to be part of the story, that signal satiety to your brain. They signal metabolic factors in terms of how you process food. We've learned how to harness that to make a medicine that decreases appetite and causes people to lose weight, also controls many metabolic factors we know about. We use them first in diabetes, now we're using them in weight loss. We now have cardiovascular evidence. And you talked about in your opening many, many other potential uses. Those studies are underway, and in a big way, Lilly. Right now we have 100 clinical trials going on with this mechanism in various diseases.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Doctor, when did you. When did you realize this was something?
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
Well, we've known about this for quite some time. I think that, you know, he really touched on something. We think about the GLP1 receptor agonist as a new thing. 2005 obviously, was over almost 20 years ago. We're about to go into the new year. And when we think about that medication, that was Exenatide, which was the first GLP1 receptor agonist used for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. So we knew about these, and we were using these medications in those individuals. But what we saw in those initial studies was the signal for the loss of adiposity. Adipose is this metabolically active organ that is fat. And we started to see that signal in those early clinical studies that patients were losing adiposity. Now, of course, the degree of adipose distribution and loss was much less compared to what we're seeing now in the studies, particularly if we're looking at the medication that Lilly has, which is a dual agonist, a combination of the GLP1 receptor agonist, and a GIP, which is a glucose insulinotropic polypeptide. You try to say that three times fast. Now, that medication, of course, is a combination medication under the name of Tirzepatide, the trade names Manjaro and Zepbound, where we see 22.5% total body weight loss compared to the early days of exenatide, where we didn't See that. But when we are saying, oh, we don't know anything about how these medications will work or they're too early for us to tell, that's really a lie. Right. We have over 20 years of data where we can see clinical trials that demonstrate the utility.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
What else is it doing? It's not clearly just a weight issue. As we're talking about all of these other things, it seems to be about inflammation. It seems to have all sorts of other impacts. So what is that?
David Ricks
Well, so how we think about it and Doctor, can jump in, but is there's these direct effects of lower weight and that's a lot about metabolism, which is use of energy. And those affect systems like your heart, stroke, diabetes. The things we think about in terms of lipids, glucose metabolism and lowering your weight changes all of that in a positive way. Most of that evidence is now published and built. And we know being leaner is good for all those conditions. We also now know getting leaner using a medicine does the same thing. I think what you're getting at are these secondary effects. You mentioned inflammation. We have a pilot study, our competitor Novo just did a very interesting study which showed knee pain reduction that would have made it the most effective drug for pain that we've seen in the last 20 years. Now, some of that must be mechanically offloading weight on the knee, but some of it is also this anti inflammatory effect. How that's working exactly still needs to be further kind of studied and looked at. But I think that's fascinating because inflammation is a whole nother category of disease, beyond metabolic effects that afflicts adults in very significant ways.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Doctor, are you seeing it impact other things? I mean, the folks that you've prescribed this to clearly, who, by the way, I should tell you, you're not supposed, but you told me the other day that you cannot call people or say that it's for obesity. It's for people who.
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
No, people. People with obesity.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
People with obesity.
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
All of you listening? Because I know it's a lot of reporters in here, you know that. You guys are listening. Please delete the word obese out of your vocabulary. Okay, so you guys want you to hear that obese is a label. Obesity is a disease. People have obesity. We should be using person first language and respecting these patients. 75% of Americans. 75%. That's the number that came out in the Lancet just two weeks ago. 75% of Americans have overweight and obesity. Okay, I'm going to say that again. 75% of Americans have overweight and obesity. That is three quarters of the country. When we don't recognize this and we call persons obese, that is stigmatizing. Persons with obesity, like persons with diabetes, persons with heart disease or aids.
David Ricks
Yeah.
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
Persons with cancer. So not an obese person, a person with obesity, a person with overweight or obesity.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
The natural follow up, which is you just said there's 70, 75% of the country.
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
Unfortunately, 75% of the United States currently has overweight and obesity, which means only 25% of our persons currently in the United States today, December 4, 2024, do not have overweight and obesity.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
So do you think that 75% of the country should be on these drugs?
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
I'm not. I'm just saying that we do have a problem. You can say, houston, we have a problem, but we do have a problem. And when we talk about prevention, which I'm all about, we have to recognize that we already have 75% of the country with overweight and obesity. So when we're dealing with this, we have to recognize the problem is already here.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
So, I mean, people talk about this market being obviously huge.
David Ricks
Yep.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
What percentage of this country, as an example, do you think will ultimately be on some version of these drugs?
David Ricks
Yeah, I think it's reasonable to think about a pretty high percentage now. What is high? Yeah. What is that? If we look at the peak use of like statins in the U.S. it was, you know, something like a fifth of all Americans. So I think the advantages, the health advantages of incretins, GLP1 medications are probably as good or better than statins. So you can make an argument it could go higher than that. But there is, of course, an affordability and payment issue. You probably want to get to think about that right now. The major problem we see is that many, many employers, probably some in this room don't cover insured with their insured plan obesity medications. Even though, as the doctor said, it is a disease that needs to change. And until that does, there's just a limit on the number of people who out of pocket pay for these medications.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
So let me ask you though, specifically about that and I can, I'm going to quote Bernie Sanders, I tell you to appreciate that he said there is no rational reason other than greed why Manjaro should cost $1,069 a month in the US but just $485 in the UK$94 in Japan. Even with the modest price reductions for zepbound, millions of Americans will still be unable to afford the diabetes and, and weight loss. Drugs they desperately need. What has to happen to make them cheaper?
David Ricks
So let me unpack that. First of all, in the US we have an archaic system where the net price is not the list price. All those other prices are actually what the government pays. In our system, 1060 is only what individuals pay if they don't have a copay card. But our average price is, let's just say, around $500. It's still above those levels, but the way we think about access, and in Japan's a good example, is whoever walks into their doctor and says, I think I may need one of these medications, and the doctors agrees and it's on label, they get the medicine, they get it for very low, out of pocket, usually a few dollars, and there's no prior authorization, there's no qualifications, and they get it for the rest of their life. They don't have to wait till their plan renew, etc. That's what we would call open access. And I think, and I'll say this on stage here, if any employer, if anyone in the US Wants to create that setting, we can match those prices. It's not about profiteering on the back of Americans. It's about a system where we have to give a slice of every bit of our revenue all the way down and then fight with the patient to gain access to the product. And even then, it renews every year and they have to go through the process again. So if we knew we could have volume, we can price against that.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Doctor?
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
Yes.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
What do you think of that?
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
You know, I think that we have some work to do. I think that we could work to get better access to these therapies. What we do know is that I fight every day to make sure that my patients can get access to the medications. And I know that it's a fight that works against my patients. Typically insurers, I fight with. I can tell you that I decide with my patient that, let's say Lilly's drug is the best drug for them, but the insurers fight back against me. They'll say, no, this isn't the best drug. I don't think that this is appropriate because of the price or, or we just don't want to approve this medication for whatever reason. So I think a lot needs to be done within the American health care system to ensure that the best drug is being utilized for the appropriate patient.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Right. Talking about appropriate patient, there is a question about some of the people who are using this drug, at least today. You know, where I believe the most per capita Use of this drug is.
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
The Upper east side. I wonder where that might be located.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
So what do you think is going on with that? I mean, is it. Is that a real problem?
David Ricks
So I think in media circles, when we talk to Wall street analysts, I hear that a lot. So I looked up the data. The average body mass index, that's the complicated score we use to see if someone's obese. Over 30 is obese. The average on Zepbound right now is 37 in America. So just like I'm 6 foot 1, 185. To be BMI of 37, I'd have to weigh 285. So I think that is obese. That's the average person on our drug. There probably are people who don't need it and are accessing it. We have a point of view about that, which is that especially in a shortage situation, which we've gone through right now, not the case, but that seems wrong to us and we should direct the medicine to those who need it most. That's what we're trying to do.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
We'll be right back.
Adam
Hear that? That's what it sounds like when you plant more trees than you harvest. Work done by thousands of working forest professionals like Adam, a district forest manager who works to protect our forests from fires.
Keeping the forest fire resistant, synonymous with keeping the forest healthy. And we do that through planting more than we harvest and mitigate those risks through active management. It's a long term commitment.
Visit workingforestsinitiatiative.com to learn more.
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Andrew Ross Sorkin
Do you think that we're all in Some way going to be on these drugs. You know, either you're working on a pill form.
David Ricks
We are. Next year we'll get new data.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Not a shot. Yeah, people who are trying to control their urges and addictions and other things. I mean that's the other question mark about all of this. Whether we're all going to be taking some, some version of this.
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
Well, I do think that we see different use case scenarios for these medications. Right now we've been talking mostly about cardiometabolic health. What do I mean by that? Obesity, diabetes. I just gave a conference at the National Academies of Medicine and September where we're starting to look at different use case scenarios. Things like alcohol use disorder, opioid use disorder. We also were talking about things like Parkinsonism, Alzheimer's disease. So we're going to see different disease processes begin to come into the mix. When we're looking at GLP1 receptor agonists that get outside of the cardiometabolic sphere. But even when in the cardiometabolic sphere we are looking at things that were mentioned, things that we used to call fatty liver disease, which is now called metabolic associated sceototic liver disease. Just to make things a little bit more complicated for all of you when you're reporting and what we call now mash, which used to be called nash, it's metabolic associated steatotic hepatitis. Of course we're talking about HFpEF, which is heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. We're seeing significant differences there. We're seeing so many different potential benefit with obstructive sleep apnea. We're going to see so many different use case scenarios with these medications that I think that we are going to see broad scale.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
That's the downsides though because I was going to say we talk about Ozempic face the loss of muscle mass. I mean it sounds like there are. It's not a panacea.
David Ricks
No, no drug is. We make all kinds of medicines. Every effective drug has side effects. They need to be used under the supervision of a doctor. These the primary one because we have 20 years of data that we do see is nausea, GI upset when you initiate the drugs. But through titration that can be minimized. People have a history of pancreatitis should not use these drugs, otherwise on this. And we've studied tirzepatide more than any other medicine in the history of Lilly and we're an old company, we don't see warning signs that you would worry about pregnancy. We don't have data on those are the things we warn patients on. But just back to your original question. There's a whole pipeline of these things coming. We have 11 ourselves, there's probably 60 in the industry. People will pursue them for all those uses you've mentioned, and some of them only for those uses. So I think in five years we could find ourselves with a pill that is a GLP1 or like mechanism that is for people who have alcohol use disorder or do use opioids in an extreme. There is an antihedonic effect here where it suppresses your. Would you.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Would you short alcohol companies and food companies?
David Ricks
Well, we have a lot more factories to build before we get to that. Right now we're seeing about 7, 8 million Americans on these every month. We need to get that number way up to short those companies. But in a way, you know, maybe those behaviors which aren't good for us, we'll do less of and that will have consequences.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
What do you make of the muscle loss and things like that and how much should people be concerned about that?
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford
Well, I think we're going to see some new medications that are coming down the pike that will help with muscle building. So there'll be some changes and shifts. I can tell you that several of the companies, including Lilly, are looking at some things to help with muscle mass and we're going to see some modifications and lifestyle modifications. So how do we encourage patients in terms of their regimens, in terms of building how much strength training are they doing, how much protein supplementation are they having in their lifestyle to ensure that they're retaining lean muscle? As we're seeing the muscle potential for muscle loss with these medications.
David Ricks
Maybe an analogy that's interesting as you think about breakthroughs in medicine and I was saying backstage, what did oral contraception do for women? It allowed people to control their reproduction. Maybe the dream scenario here is we can use these medicines to control like our urges and including food, but maybe other things. And that would be those studies are going to happen and we'll know the answer to that. But that would be, I think, a breakthrough across health.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
We're going to run out of time. But let me ask you one question. As a CEO of a major pharmaceutical company in this country, rfk.
David Ricks
Yeah.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Junior is potentially about to be your.
David Ricks
Time to go.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Is about to become your regulator depending on what happens in Washington. And I'm just curious what your reaction to that name and that appointment is.
David Ricks
Yeah, I mean he's obviously said and and acted on things that are what we would call anti science. Now on the other hand, I think the reason Trump embraced him and the reason he had enjoyed some popularity was this interesting mix. A little bit of this antisense, but also pro health. So, like all new things, we will start with a blank sheet of paper and say, we're pro health. I've got 44,000 employees wake up every day trying to make America healthy again. So we can get behind that. Now, what the specifics are, we'll have to talk about, but a world without medicine isn't a good world.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
But are you worried about. I mean, he has literally talked about telling folks, you know, if you work at the fda, you know, save your bags, pack your bags, save your documents.
David Ricks
That's concerning. FDA is the gold standard regulator in the world, and we're the only country on earth that does primary data review, meaning when the company creates data, only the FDA reviews every digit of that data. No other regulator on earth does it. I think that's a value to society we need to keep. We'll argue that strongly with our new regulator.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
We are over time, but I do want to thank you.
David Ricks
Great to be here for this fabulous conversation.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
It is changing the world. Thank you very, very much. Thank you.
Dealbook summit is a production of the new york times. This episode was produced by evan roberts and edited by sarah kessler. Mixing by kelly piclo. Original music by daniel powell. The rest of the dealbook events team includes julie zahn, hilary kuhn, angela austin, haley hess, dana perkowski, matt kaiser and yenhui liu. Special thanks to sam dolnick, nina lassom, ravi mattu, beth weinstein, kate carrington and melissa tripoli. Thanks for listening. Talk to you.
Host: Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times
Guests: David Ricks (CEO, Eli Lilly) & Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford (Harvard Medical School; Obesity specialist)
Date Recorded: December 4, 2024
This episode, recorded live at the New York Times DealBook Summit, centers on the transformative impact and future promise of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs—like Ozempic, Mounjaro, and Wegovy—that are redefining the boundaries of pharmaceuticals, wellness, and human health. Host Andrew Ross Sorkin leads a dynamic conversation with David Ricks (Eli Lilly CEO) and Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford (obesity medicine expert and Harvard professor), exploring these drugs’ expanding clinical uses, societal and ethical considerations, accessibility challenges, and the changing language and stigma around obesity.
On the scope and potential of GLP-1s
“When you think right now about the most significant innovations of our lifetime... one of them is, of course, the new blockbuster drug class of drugs called GLP1s.”
— Andrew Ross Sorkin [01:08]
On language and stigma
“Obese is a label. Obesity is a disease. People have obesity. We should be using person-first language and respecting these patients.”
— Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford [06:52]
On U.S. drug pricing
“It’s not about profiteering on the back of Americans. It’s about a system where we have to give a slice of every bit of our revenue all the way down and then fight with the patient to gain access to the product.”
— David Ricks [10:08]
Vision for GLP-1s beyond food
“Maybe the dream scenario here is we can use these medicines to control our urges... not just food, but maybe other things. That would be, I think, a breakthrough across health.”
— David Ricks [18:27]
| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-------------|------------------------------------------------------| | 01:08 | Sorkin introduces GLP-1s and outlines their potential| | 02:39 | Ricks explains the history and mechanisms of GLP-1s | | 03:42 | Dr. Stanford on early use for diabetes & weight loss | | 05:22 | Ricks and Stanford on inflammation and new indications| | 06:52 | Dr. Stanford on person-first language and stigma | | 07:56 | 75% of Americans have overweight or obesity | | 08:53 | Ricks predicts large-scale adoption—affordability issues| | 10:08 | Ricks on international vs. U.S. drug pricing issues | | 11:17 | Stanford on daily struggle for insurance coverage | | 12:27 | Addressing “vanity” prescriptions and equality of access| | 15:05 | Stanford lists upcoming indications for GLP-1s | | 16:26 | Side effects, upcoming muscle-building advancements | | 18:27 | Ricks draws analogy to the impact of oral contraception| | 19:18 | Ricks on regulatory challenges and the FDA |
The discussion is candid, forward-looking, and occasionally humorous, especially when tackling misconceptions or the difficulties in American healthcare bureaucracy. Both guests blend scientific rigor with a clear advocacy for patient well-being and systemic change.
GLP-1 drugs—years in the making but only now widely appreciated—are poised to reshape not just obesity care, but potentially the entire landscape of chronic disease management, addiction, and even behavioral health. With their broadening clinical promise comes intense debate over access, cost, and the cultural meaning of obesity itself. Pharma leaders and obesity experts alike foresee a near future where these therapies are as prevalent as statins, but only if regulators, insurers, and society can resolve who pays, who gets treated, and how we talk about weight, wellness, and health.
End of Summary