Podcast Summary: DealBook Summit – Taiwan’s President Warns China Is Getting More Aggressive
Podcast: DealBook Summit
Host: Andrew Ozorkin (The New York Times)
Guest: President of Taiwan
Date: December 4, 2025
Episode Theme:
A rare, in-depth interview with Taiwan’s President, discussing the island’s growing security concerns regarding China, global semiconductor supply chains, U.S.–Taiwan relations, and the global implications of AI and economic development—recorded live at the 2025 DealBook Summit.
Episode Overview
This episode features a milestone interview with Taiwan’s President—his first with Western media after announcing a $40 billion special military budget. The conversation explores heightened Chinese military aggression, Taiwan’s critical position in the global economy (especially semiconductors), evolving U.S.–Taiwan relations, and Taiwan's outlook on the global AI boom and Chinese economic challenges.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Rising Chinese Aggression and Taiwan’s Defense Response
- Increased Military Pressure:
- The President detailed a noticeable uptick in Chinese military drills, now more frequent and intense, extending beyond the first island chain and destabilizing the wider Indo-Pacific.
“China’s military drills targeted at Taiwan are becoming increasingly frequent and intense. They have even moved beyond the first island chain into the second, affecting the wider Indo Pacific region.” — President of Taiwan [02:04]
- The President detailed a noticeable uptick in Chinese military drills, now more frequent and intense, extending beyond the first island chain and destabilizing the wider Indo-Pacific.
- United Front Tactics:
- Besides military maneuvers, China’s influence operations (“United Front” activities) are escalating.
- Special Defense Budget:
- Taiwan’s response is a $40 billion special defense budget aimed at bolstering deterrence and modernizing its armed capabilities, primarily through U.S. arms purchases.
“Peace is priceless and war has no winners... Peace must be secured through strength.” — President of Taiwan [02:38]
- Taiwan’s response is a $40 billion special defense budget aimed at bolstering deterrence and modernizing its armed capabilities, primarily through U.S. arms purchases.
- Economic Resilience Efforts:
- Notably, Taiwan has sharply reduced its economic dependence on China: from 83.8% of outbound investment in 2010 to only 7% last year.
“We are also working side by side with other democracies to reinforce deterrence. Robust preparations are the best way to avoid war and achieve peace.” — President of Taiwan [02:38]
- Notably, Taiwan has sharply reduced its economic dependence on China: from 83.8% of outbound investment in 2010 to only 7% last year.
2. China’s Invasion Timeline and the International Community’s Role
- Preparedness First:
- The President deflected on a specific Chinese attack timeline (“2027” cited by Xi), instead emphasizing Taiwan’s commitment to be ready for any scenario.
“Taiwan’s fundamental principle is that we must be ready first. This is our basic principle.” — President of Taiwan [03:42]
- The President deflected on a specific Chinese attack timeline (“2027” cited by Xi), instead emphasizing Taiwan’s commitment to be ready for any scenario.
- Value of International Support:
- He credited G7 nations, the U.S., and Japan for bolstering cross-Strait stability and called for continued global support for the rules-based order.
“We are grateful to the international community... for their interest in cross strait peace and emphasizing that stability in the Taiwan Strait is essential to global security and prosperity.” [03:42]
- He credited G7 nations, the U.S., and Japan for bolstering cross-Strait stability and called for continued global support for the rules-based order.
3. U.S.–Taiwan Relations and Alliance Confidence
- “Rock Solid” Partnership:
- Underscoring U.S. legislative and executive support (Taiwan Relations Act, Six Assurances), the President asserted Taiwan's confidence in the U.S., even with changing administrations.
“Since President Trump took office, cooperation with Taiwan has not only continued but even expanded... Our relationship truly is rock solid.” — President of Taiwan [05:00]
- Underscoring U.S. legislative and executive support (Taiwan Relations Act, Six Assurances), the President asserted Taiwan's confidence in the U.S., even with changing administrations.
- Broadening Cooperation:
- He highlighted ongoing and future trade negotiations, seeking to both reduce the U.S. trade deficit and deepen economic ties.
4. Ukraine’s War and Its Lessons
- Solidarity with Ukraine:
- Taiwan empathizes with Ukraine, hopes for a quick, dignified conclusion to the war, and draws lessons about vulnerability and international support.
“We hope this irrational and illegitimate war will be over as soon as possible so that the Ukrainian people will no longer have to suffer.” — President of Taiwan [06:10]
- Taiwan empathizes with Ukraine, hopes for a quick, dignified conclusion to the war, and draws lessons about vulnerability and international support.
5. Semiconductors: Strategic Value, Global Ecosystem, and U.S. Ambitions
- Taiwan’s Role:
- The President called Taiwan’s semiconductor sector a “global asset” crucial for AI and innovation, emphasizing the international ecosystem:
“The industry functions as an ecosystem... The US Excels in R and D design... Japan provides materials and equipment... The Netherlands makes advanced lithography systems. Taiwan specializes in logic chip manufacturing and Korea leads in flash memory chips.” — President of Taiwan [07:18]
- The President called Taiwan’s semiconductor sector a “global asset” crucial for AI and innovation, emphasizing the international ecosystem:
- On U.S. Self-sufficiency (Trump's 40-50% Goal):
- He advised that U.S. government action (land, water, talent, incentives) will determine if manufacturing goals are realistic.
“Whether this target of 40 to 50% can be achieved... depends not only on Taiwan’s support, but also on the US Government’s ability to facilitate land acquisition, water and electricity supply, workforce and talent development and investment incentives.” [09:12]
- He advised that U.S. government action (land, water, talent, incentives) will determine if manufacturing goals are realistic.
- Balancing Exports to China:
- The President avoided commenting on U.S. domestic export controls but recalled Taiwan’s own 2000s decision not to move advanced chip production to China—a decision he now sees as correct.
“There was an extensive and thorough discussion... The consensus was that it would be unwise and should not happen... Had Taiwan allowed its most advanced manufacturing to relocate to China, Taiwan would not be what it is today.” — President of Taiwan [10:12]
- The President avoided commenting on U.S. domestic export controls but recalled Taiwan’s own 2000s decision not to move advanced chip production to China—a decision he now sees as correct.
6. The AI Boom and the Chinese Economy
- AI: Bubble or Boon?
- Acknowledging both optimism and skepticism about AI, the President sees opportunity for prosperity—if global leaders cooperate to ensure stability.
“AI era will bring greater convenience... That is why we must take steps to prevent AI from becoming a bubble... necessary measures to ensure AI develops sustainably and has a soft landing.” — President of Taiwan [11:42]
- Acknowledging both optimism and skepticism about AI, the President sees opportunity for prosperity—if global leaders cooperate to ensure stability.
- China’s Economic Weakness:
- Taiwan is on track for 7.37% growth vs. China’s projected 4%—prompting hope that Beijing will focus inward, not on expansion.
“We sincerely hope that as China faces economic pressures, President Xi Jinping will focus not on territorial expansion, but on improving the well being of the Chinese people. Taiwan is willing to help and to cooperate in addressing these economic challenges.” — President of Taiwan [11:42]
- Taiwan is on track for 7.37% growth vs. China’s projected 4%—prompting hope that Beijing will focus inward, not on expansion.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Defense Investments:
"Peace is priceless and war has no winners. While we aspire to peace, we cannot harbor illusions about it."
— President of Taiwan [02:38] -
On U.S. Support:
"Our relationship truly is rock solid."
— President of Taiwan [05:00] -
On Tech Ecosystem:
"Semiconductors are a global ecosystem. It requires worldwide cooperation to be effective."
— President of Taiwan [07:18] -
On AI:
"Leaders around the world... should work together and take necessary measures to ensure AI develops sustainably and has a soft landing."
— President of Taiwan [11:42]
Important Timestamps
- [02:04] – Taiwan’s President on Chinese military escalation
- [02:38] – “Peace is priceless and war has no winners.”
- [03:42] – International support and deterrence
- [05:00] – U.S.–Taiwan “rock solid” relations
- [06:10] – Taiwan’s position on the war in Ukraine
- [07:18] – The global semiconductor ecosystem
- [09:12] – U.S. domestic chip production and feasibility
- [10:12] – Lessons from Taiwan’s advanced manufacturing export policy
- [11:42] – Global AI boom and Chinese economic conditions
Summary
The episode provides a candid and strategic window into Taiwan’s current mindset as it faces increased pressure from China—militarily, economically, and technologically. Taiwan is responding by investing heavily in defense, systematically reducing economic reliance on China, and entrenching itself as a vital node in technology supply chains.
The President’s tone was firm yet measured, repeatedly emphasizing that while Taiwan hopes for peace, it will not be lulled into complacency, and is committed to international partnership and deterrence. Through candid discussion on chips, AI, and international security, the President reinforced Taiwan’s global relevance and its appeal for a united, rules-based approach to maintaining peace and stability.