DealBook Summit: The 2024 Elections – What Happened and What’s Next?

Overview

In the December 11, 2024 episode of the DealBook Summit hosted by The New York Times, a panel of esteemed business and policy leaders delves into the intricacies of the 2024 U.S. election cycle. Recorded live in New York City, the discussion navigates through pivotal topics such as presidential pardons, the politicization of the Justice Department, media influence, party realignment, and voter sentiment. The panel comprises notable figures including Sarah Longwell, Major Garrett, Jason Miller, Kevin McCarthy, Anita Dunn, Alexis McGill Johnson, Van Jones, Jonathan Karl, Margaret Hoover, Kellyanne Conway, and Andrew Ross Sorkin.

1. Presidential Pardons and the Justice System

Hunter Biden Pardon Controversy

The episode opens with Major Garrett posing a critical question to Anita Dunn regarding President Biden's recent pardon of his son, Hunter Biden. The pardon, described as sweeping and unprecedented in modern times, parallels President Ford’s pardon of Richard Nixon.

• Major Garrett [03:00]: “President Biden for months said he was not going to pardon his son Hunter. He did so on Sunday and did so with a sweeping pardon... why did it cover such an expansive time period?”

Sarah Longwell’s Perspective

Sarah Longwell addresses the complexity surrounding the pardon:

• Longwell [04:08]: “I absolutely agree with the president's decision here. I do not agree with the way it was done. I don't agree with the timing, and I don't agree, frankly, with the attack on our judicial system.”

She emphasizes Hunter Biden’s personal struggles and redemption, while criticizing the pardon’s timing and its implications on public trust in the judiciary.

Politicization of the Justice Department

The discussion shifts to the broader topic of Justice Department politicization, with Jason Miller and Kevin McCarthy expressing contrasting views.

• Jason Miller [06:14]: “President Trump has said... Those will be looked at on a case by case basis... when we talk about who's going to be doing that, Pam Bondi is a very serious player coming in to take over the DOJ.”

• Kevin McCarthy [19:03]: “Abortion was not the only issue. It was a central issue. Connecting... to men's concerns, which I think came a little late.”

Anita Dunn defends Merrick Garland and the DOJ’s impartiality, countering claims of political weaponization.

• Anita Dunn [09:21]: “The only person who's been convicted by this Justice Department, who had a special counsel was the president's son, the President of the United States.”

Van Jones on Public Perception

Van Jones challenges the narrative that the DOJ was weaponized against Trump, citing public opinion polls.

• Van Jones [09:50]: “The American public weighed everything... They want the economy back. They want the secure border.”

2. Democratic Party's Strategic Missteps

Decision to Run Again and Party Realignment

Major Garrett questions President Biden’s decision to seek re-election despite initial statements about transitioning power to a new generation.

• Major Garrett [12:52]: “Was President Biden right to run again in the first place after suggesting that he would be a transitional figure...”

Sarah Longwell and Jason Miller provide insights into the Democratic Party's internal dynamics and public perception.

• Longwell [13:10]: “Given his decision to run, was not a decision that was really a tough call for him...”

• Jason Miller [14:46]: “The party has a future. Last time we got trapped in... we have to oppose everything all the time... We have to take people's economic pain seriously.”

Economic Messaging and Voter Disconnect

Kevin McCarthy highlights the importance of economic issues and abortion in the midterm elections, suggesting that Democrats fell short in addressing men's concerns.

• McCarthy [19:03]: “Economic messaging as it relates to abortion was critical...”

Sarah Longwell points out the Democratic Party’s loss of credibility among lower-income voters and the inability to effectively communicate solutions to economic hardships.

• Longwell [54:51]: “The Democratic Party's biggest problem... people don't think we are representing them when it comes to the core issue for them, which is the economy.”

3. Media Influence and the Digital Age

Mainstream vs. Digital Media

Kellyanne Conway and Sarah Longwell discuss the shifting landscape of media consumption, emphasizing the rise of digital platforms over traditional mainstream media.

• Conway [28:38]: “Donald Trump understood... he gets on it... eight came from the Trump campaign...”

• Longwell [40:25]: “Digital is the new media... holding those in power to account...”

Authenticity in Communication

Panelists debate the significance of authentic communication versus scripted media engagement, with Jason Miller advocating for genuine interactions to resonate with voters.

• Miller [35:58]: “Donald Trump lets you have an emotion besides shame...”

• Longwell [81:34]: “Kamala Harris did not feel authentic. She felt like a regular politician...”

4. Voter Sentiment and Party Coalitions

Economic Dislocation and Cultural Shifts

The panel explores how economic challenges and cultural divisions have reshaped voter behavior, leading to increased support for Trump.

• Maggie Haberman [58:42]: “It's not historically coincidental that the two times we have had non-consecutive reelected presidents were times of tremendous economic dislocation.”

• Jason Miller [75:38]: “Men are hurting... we can’t provide for anybody... there is a rebellion in this country.”

Immigration and Border Security

Immigration remains a contentious issue, with discussions on Biden’s policies and their impact on voter sentiment.

• Longwell [78:54]: “The administration should have moved more quickly once Title 42 was no longer in effect to get control of what was happening there.”

• Van Jones [80:25]: “Elon Musk was what was happening on the border. This is another reason why Republicans are winning Hispanic vote.”

5. Future of the Republican Party and Trump's Influence

Trump's Preparedness and Administration Readiness

The conversation turns to President Trump's readiness for a second term, highlighting his preparedness and the strategic planning of his administration.

• Andrew Ross Sorkin [89:03]: “He has a chief of staff that's in place... President Trump is ready to hit the ground running.”

• Jason Miller [90:23]: “Trump is the most powerful person in human history...”

Influence of Personalities like Elon Musk

Van Jones discusses the role of influential figures such as Elon Musk in supporting Trump’s agenda and their impact on the political landscape.

• Jones [59:03]: “Elon will not equate himself to be a Republican or Democrat... he has to support policies.”

6. Media Coverage and its Impact on the Election

Bias and Objectivity in Reporting

The panel critically examines media bias, with Kellyanne Conway accusing mainstream media of vilifying Trump, while panelists debate the role of objective journalism.

• Kellyanne Conway [47:35]: “The View definitely did her in just by asking her a simple question.”

• Maggie Haberman [49:13]: “The presidency is an institution... if you get emotionally involved in it, not only is that journalistically erroneous, Trump will manipulate you.”

Role of Digital Platforms in Shaping Narratives

Discussions highlight how digital platforms have become pivotal in shaping public perception and political narratives, often bypassing traditional media channels.

• Alexis McGill Johnson [40:06]: “Digital is how we hold those in power to account...”

7. Moving Forward: Strategies for the Democratic Party

Authenticity and Engagement

Anita Dunn and Sarah Longwell advocate for the Democratic Party to embrace authenticity and actively engage with voters’ real-life concerns to rebuild trust.

• Dunn [89:11]: “The Democratic Party is now populated by a lot more of these college educated voters...”

• Longwell [73:21]: “Voters don't want that anymore. And people are going to have to adjust to that terrain.”

Inclusive Messaging and Redefining Movements

The panel emphasizes the need for inclusive messaging that uplifts all communities without resorting to dehumanizing binaries.

• Jason Miller [71:08]: “We can lift up poor black and brown folks without putting anybody down.”

• Dunn [77:21]: “Immigration was an issue that was seen as something to be managed as opposed to really addressed.”

Conclusion

The DealBook Summit episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 elections, highlighting the complex interplay between political strategies, media influence, voter sentiments, and party dynamics. Key takeaways include the critical examination of presidential pardons, the necessity for the Democratic Party to realign with voters’ economic and cultural concerns, the transformative role of digital media in politics, and the enduring influence of Donald Trump’s political machinery. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the panelists underscore the importance of authenticity, inclusive policies, and strategic communication in shaping future electoral outcomes.

Notable Quotes:

• Sarah Longwell [04:08]: “I absolutely agree with the president's decision here. I do not agree with the way it was done. I don't agree with the timing, and I don't agree, frankly, with the attack on our judicial system.”

• Jason Miller [35:58]: “Men are hurting... And the masculinist culture tells you, don't cry because boys don't cry.”

• Kellyanne Conway [28:38]: “…eight came from the Trump campaign, five in the last week alone.”

• Van Jones [89:03]: “For the first time, we don't have to run these things. Let our rebels have a chance.”

• Maggie Haberman [49:13]: “The presidency is an institution. If you get emotionally involved in it, Trump will manipulate you.”

Production Credits:

• Produced by: Evan Roberts
• Edited by: Sarah Kessler
• Mixing by: Kelly Piclo
• Original Music by: Daniel Powell
• DealBook Events Team: Julie Zahn, Hilary Kuhn, Angela Austin, Hayley Hess, Dana Prokowski, Matt Kaiser, Yenwei Liu

Special Thanks: Sam Dolan, Nina Lassom, Ravi Matu, Beth Weinstein, Kate Carrington, Melissa Tripoli.

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