DealBook Summit: The Global Re-Order
The New York Times | December 6, 2025
Host: Nicholas Kristof
Guests:
- David Petraeus (KKR, former CIA Director/General)
- Avril Haines (former Director of National Intelligence)
- Fareed Zakaria (CNN, Columnist)
- Mark Esper (former Secretary of Defense)
- Chris Coons (U.S. Senator, Delaware)
- Ehud Barak (former Prime Minister of Israel)
- Samantha Power (former USAID Administrator)
Overview
In this sprawling and urgent roundtable from the 2025 DealBook Summit, top policy leaders and commentators grapple with the year’s seismic global shifts: the challenges to post-WWII global order, emerging “hotspots” from Ukraine to Gaza, the threat and opportunity of China, and the evolving role of U.S. alliances. Far from a victory lap, the panelists assess highs and lows of a year that felt, in Fareed Zakaria’s words, like “weeks when decades happen.” President Trump's return looms large across every discussion. The mood is clear-eyed, sometimes grim, but not without hope for new structures of global cooperation.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
I. Year in Review: Highs and Lows (00:44–10:30)
Panelists pinpoint watershed moments of 2025—both triumphs and disasters—for the U.S. and world order.
Highlights:
- China-U.S. Fentanyl Cooperation (Host, 00:54): President Trump's progress on limiting fentanyl exports is lauded as a rare life-saving initiative.
- Collapse of USAID (Host, 01:23, Samantha Power, 09:45): The destruction of USAID—a fount of humanitarian aid—becomes a recurring “low point.”
- China Trade Progress & European Defense Build-up (Petraeus, 02:15): "The China trade framework... and the enormous increase in commitment by Europeans to spending on their own defense."
- Peace in Eastern Congo (Avril Haines, 02:47): Noting little-reported progress, "a little known high... is the work that’s continued to provide peace to the eastern Congo..."
- Abandonment of Ukraine (Zakaria, 03:46): "For me, would be the essential abandonment of Ukraine..." Morally indefensible, strategically disastrous.
- Normalization with Saudi Arabia (Zakaria, 04:11): Restoration of U.S.-Saudi ties as a “necessary” realignment, controversial among panelists.
- Border Security; Lack of China Strategy (Esper, 05:03): High on U.S. border security, low on U.S. strategy with China.
- NATO Investment; Gaza Hostage Release (Coons, 06:03): Values-based highs, countered by lows of ongoing humanitarian crisis, USAID loss, and pardoning of January 6th rioters.
- Israel’s Strike on Iran; Domestic Democratic Crisis (Barak, 07:04): Praises the Israel-U.S. operation against Iran, laments Israel’s slide toward autocracy.
- Diplomatic Ambition vs. Humanitarian Retreat (Power, 08:51): Advocates for “diplomatic ambition,” but is haunted by the destabilizing legacy of USAID’s dismantling.
Notable Quote
“The high was President Trump's emphasis with China on fentanyl... likely to save thousands of American lives. The low is the destruction of USAID, costing by one estimate 88 lives every hour of the Trump presidency for the next three years.”
— Nicholas Kristof (Host), 00:54
II. Middle East: Gaza, Iran, & U.S.-Israel Relations (15:01–30:47)
Gaza—Paths Forward?
Discussion begins with the grim reality of Gaza post-October 7th and limited optimism for Palestinian statehood.
- Ehud Barak (15:31): Cites “a new landscape” after Israel-Iran strikes, but criticizes Israel’s government for blocking viable postwar options:
“You cannot navigate war war. It’s not an end to itself, it’s a means to an end. The end is always political.”
- Chris Coons (18:42): Warns that Democratic support for Israel hinges on tangible progress for Palestinians:
“Biden might be the last Zionist Democratic president unless there is a basic change in trajectory.”
- Zakaria & Petraeus (20:21, 21:38): Skeptical about Palestinian political unification and Gaza’s prospects, highlight absence of credible local leadership, and security dilemma.
- Petraeus (21:38): Dissects Israeli operations:
“Israel has done clear and leave operations instead of clear, hold, build and gradually transition... no development of a Palestinian vetted, trained and equipped security force.”
Iran & Nuclear Deterrence
- Avril Haines & Barak (26:10–30:47): Iran’s nuclear setback may be significant but fragile; transitions could just as easily lead to greater instability. Barak is skeptical of optimism:
“Iran is still a threshold nuclear power... probably the size of this hole to enrich it to weapon grade.”
Saudi Arabia—Realpolitik vs. Human Rights
A pointed debate on U.S. priorities:
- Power (31:42): Criticizes Trump’s embrace of MBS and what it signals for U.S. values:
“If the free world gets to the point where we are willing so to compartmentalize... our own conscience causes us to belittle the very individuals who we once would have stood up for, I think they're in madness lies.”
- Zakaria (34:28): Argues MBS has matured, transforming the region, especially with regard to religious reform:
“He took on the religious establishment in Saudi Arabia... They now preach a kind of moderate, live and let live version of Islam.”
III. Humanitarian Crises: Sudan & Global Aid (37:42–41:58)
- Sudan (“the world’s greatest humanitarian catastrophe”): Senator Coons and Samantha Power stress the void left by U.S. and Western disengagement, the need for civil society, and new levers of influence through Gulf states' interests.
“If what comes out of this most recent meeting is President Trump discovers there’s a crisis in Sudan and decides to engage... That would be a good outcome, even though a very complicated path.”
— Sen. Chris Coons, 38:07
IV. Ukraine & The New Age of War (41:58–57:37)
Who’s Winning?
- Petraeus (42:38): Russia is fragile; Ukraine innovates with drones, “a country without a navy” tying up the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
“They have already sunk 35% of the Russian Black Sea fleet, is basically tied up in a port as far from Ukraine as they can get at this moment.”
- Haines (47:03): “We need to... lean in, to support Ukraine in this moment in order to get them more leverage so that we can actually achieve a deal...”
Trump & U.S. Policy
- Zakaria (48:54):
“Trump doesn’t like Ukraine... We've conceded most Russia's demands even before negotiations have begun.”
Strategic Lessons—Drones & Industrial Base
- Esper & Petraeus (50:39, 53:30): Drones and rapid battlefield innovation have changed the game. America’s “industrial age procurement system” is outpaced by Ukraine’s nimble, tech-driven adaptation.
- Barak (54:13): Sees a coming long ceasefire, not peace; existential stakes for Europe and Russia both.
V. U.S. Intervention, Venezuela, and the “Responsibility to Protect” (57:37–63:52)
- Coons & Power caution against U.S. “gunboat diplomacy” in Venezuela, urge that stability and welfare of the people outweigh regime change impulse.
“Any kind of moral absolutism without filtering it through consequences, that’s not morality.”
— Samantha Power, 63:52
VI. China: The Global Peer Challenger (64:04–74:40)
The Peer Rivalry
- Zakaria (64:12): China, a true peer competitor, now exceeds the U.S. in key areas (batteries, AI, robotics, manufacturing).
“We cannot compete with China on all these issues by ourselves... We could, if we created an ecosystem of our allies...”
- Esper, Haines, Coons (66:52–72:13): Biden gets credit for alliance-building (the Quad, AUKUS), yet worry Trump's moves have undermined U.S. advantages; critical need to maintain AI chip leadership—not “give them Nvidia H200 and Blackwell chips.”
- Haines: Predicts a shift from U.S.-centric alliances to more networked, distributed security arrangements.
- Coons (70:53): “Talent, energy, and chip design. We've got an advantage in one. We shouldn’t hand it away.”
VII. Taiwan & South China Sea—Is War Likely? (73:04–75:37)
- Barak & Zakaria (73:19, 73:44): Downplay likelihood of imminent war; blockade more probable than invasion; economic deterrence is key:
“What deters Xi Jinping is the idea that he would lose access to the markets and technology of the United States, of Europe, of Japan.”
- Petraeus & Esper: Emphasize importance of shoring up “the twin elements of deterrence”—capability and credibility with allies.
- Broader message: Asian regional actors, not just Washington-Beijing axis, will shape the outcome.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “There are decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen.”
— Fareed Zakaria, citing his book (00:44) - On Israel & Iran:
“The ring of fire or the rogue axis led by Iran... had been broken. Not knockout, but a huge shattering.”
— Ehud Barak (07:04) - “If Russia wins [in Ukraine], there is no way for Europe to avoid Putin making Russia great again.”
— Ehud Barak (56:26) - “China is indeed the greatest threat we face this century, and it’s far more difficult, far more complex and far more dangerous than the USSR ever was.”
— Mark Esper (68:54) - “If the free world gets to the point where we are willing so to compartmentalize but yet our own conscience... I think they're in madness lies.”
— Samantha Power (31:42) - On innovation:
“The Ukrainians... are innovating in software on a weekly basis. Hardware, it takes a few weeks. ...Of course, they’re fighting for their very survival.”
— David Petraeus (53:30)
Key Timestamps
- 00:44 – Opening round: panelists’ highs & lows of the year
- 15:01 – Gaza: prospects for peace, the “morning after” war
- 21:38 – Petraeus: Israeli military strategy and its limits in Gaza
- 26:10 – Iran’s nuclear future and regime change analysis
- 31:11 – Saudi Arabia: Realpolitik vs. human rights debate
- 37:42 – Sudan: humanitarian crisis and international inaction
- 41:58 – Ukraine: who’s “winning,” Russian fragility, western aid
- 53:30 – Drones and defense innovation lessons from Ukraine
- 63:52 – Venezuela: American intervention, R2P doctrine in doubt
- 64:04 – China: peer competition, chips, and alliance strategies
- 73:04 – China-Taiwan crisis: war or deterrence?
- 75:37 – Closing reflections on interconnected crises
Tone & Takeaways
The panel is urgent, candid, and frequently sobering but offers nuanced hope in networked alliances, technological vigilance, and assertive diplomacy. Consensus emerges on the dangers of U.S. withdrawal and the need for renewed alliances in the face of resurgent autocracy and multipolar challenge. The destruction of established institutions and humanitarian tools is seen as not just a loss of American power, but of moral leadership. Technology and alliance management are the new battlegrounds. The return of great power competition is real—and the stakes global.