Real Estate Reality | California Fires, Interest Rates and the Housing Market

Summary

Podcast Summary: Dear Alice | Interior Design
Episode: Real Estate Reality | California Fires, Interest Rates and the Housing Market
Release Date: March 6, 2025

Hosts Jessica Bennett and Suzanne Hall, the creative minds behind Alice Lane Interior Design, welcome Rob Corcoran, a seasoned real estate expert, to discuss the multifaceted impact of the California fires, rising interest rates, and the current state of the housing market.

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1. Introduction and Guest Welcome

[00:12 – 01:23]
Alice Lane opens the episode by welcoming Rob Corcoran back to "Dear Alice," highlighting his expertise in the real estate market across diverse locations. Becky introduces Rob as a favorite guest from a previous top-ranking episode, emphasizing his comprehensive knowledge of market dynamics nationwide.

Notable Quote:
Becky: "We had Rob Corcoran here. We had him on a year ago and y'all went crazy. I think it was one of our top episodes of the year."
[00:22]

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2. Impact of California Fires on the Real Estate Market

[01:31 – 04:15]
Becky initiates the discussion by addressing the significant California fires at the start of 2025 and their repercussions on the housing market. She references Josh Altman's skepticism about the number of homes affected and the likelihood of residents rebuilding.

Rob concurs, detailing the extensive damage—over 11,000 homes destroyed—and predicts that more than 50% of displaced residents may relocate to other states like Utah. He underscores the slow rebuilding process, attributing delays to infrastructure overhauls and stringent regulations.

Notable Quote:
Rob Corcoran: "I think it's going to be one of few that have a brand new home in Los Angeles county near the ocean. So I think for those that do hold on, the price of those homes are going to be out of this world."
[02:17]

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3. Rising Insurance Rates and Their Implications

[04:15 – 07:00]
David raises concerns about escalating insurance rates in the wake of the fires. Rob highlights the alarming increase, with premiums potentially rising by 28-35%, compared to the usual single-digit hikes.

He shares personal anecdotes, such as a client's decision to abandon a horse ranch due to exorbitant insurance costs—jumping from $13,000 to $60,000 annually. Rob warns of a nationwide trend where insurance companies, reacting to disasters, elevate rates across various regions, making property ownership financially untenable for many.

Notable Quote:
Rob Corcoran: "It's extremely expensive... $6,000 probably [in insurance], which I'm telling you before that, if we would have insured that property, if we would have closed that property two months ago before the fires."
[05:04]

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4. Challenges in Rebuilding California’s Housing Infrastructure

[07:00 – 12:06]
The conversation shifts to the logistical nightmares of rebuilding after such extensive devastation. Rob discusses the complexities of overhauling water, sewer, and power lines, predicting a minimum of a decade-long process even without bureaucratic red tape.

He criticizes construction companies’ reluctance to participate in the rebuilding efforts due to California’s challenging regulatory environment, despite the clear need for reconstruction. Rob emphasizes that rebuilding entire communities from the ground up involves more than just constructing homes—it requires comprehensive infrastructure redevelopment.

Notable Quote:
Rob Corcoran: "They want nothing to do with this. It's really interesting."
[09:25]

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5. National Implications: Insurance and Construction Trends

[12:06 – 16:02]
Rob expands the discussion to national implications, noting that regions with similar risks (e.g., Vermont’s forested areas, Montana) might face analogous insurance and construction challenges. He warns that insurance companies' heightened caution could lead to increased premiums and decreased availability of coverage nationwide.

The hosts contemplate the broader impact of natural disasters on real estate, including potential shifts towards more resilient construction materials and methods, though Rob remains skeptical about significant changes in building practices in the short term.

Notable Quote:
Rob Corcoran: "Everyone loves new construction and there's just not a lot of it unless you have a lot of money and live on the coastline. So it's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out."
[04:15]

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6. Current Real Estate Market Dynamics: Low Inventory and High Demand

[20:42 – 27:31]
Becky and Rob delve into the current state of the real estate market, highlighting an unprecedented low in home sales inventory—the lowest since 1994. Rob explains that despite low sales volumes, available homes are selling rapidly due to the scarcity of listings.

He contrasts this with markets like Houston and Arizona, where inventory levels vary, but emphasizes that in most areas, high-quality homes in prime locations are being snatched up quickly, often receiving multiple offers within days. Rob attributes the low inventory to a shortage of available homes and highlights a national deficit of approximately 1.2 million homes needed to meet current demand.

Notable Quote:
Rob Corcoran: "Most people think 5.5%. People look at and say, okay, we're at 5.5%. Let's just sell. Let's wipe out our debt. We have $300,000 left over from all this equity. Let's go buy that next level of home. Right."
[25:08]

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7. Rising Interest Rates and Their Impact on Homebuyers

[27:31 – 41:14]
Rob addresses the high interest rates currently at 7%, making homeownership challenging for middle-income buyers. He elaborates on how rates have historically climbed but acknowledges that they are not exorbitant compared to past decades.

The discussion covers the relationship between inflation and mortgage rates, with Rob predicting a potential drop to around 5% over the next two to three years as inflation subsides. He advises listeners to build strong relationships with lenders now to take advantage of future refinancing opportunities when rates decrease.

Notable Quote:
Rob Corcoran: "The only reason you would do that is because rates drop low enough. So you have..."
[24:23]

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8. Advice for Buyers and Sellers: Navigating a Tight Market

[38:05 – 41:14]
Rob offers practical advice to listeners navigating the current real estate landscape. He recommends establishing connections with lenders early, preparing for potential refinancing, and being ready to act swiftly when more favorable rates emerge.

He emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility and financial preparedness, suggesting that buyers might need to consider second homes or investment properties as part of their strategy. Rob also touches on the resilience of high-net-worth individuals who continue to invest in real estate despite market challenges.

Notable Quote:
Rob Corcoran: "Buy now, keep that rate, keep your relationship with your lender. And then... let your lender know when rates get to about here, please contact me."
[38:18]

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9. Real Estate vs. Stock Market Returns

[34:46 – 36:11]
The hosts briefly compare real estate investments to stock market performance. Rob explains that while the S&P 500 has averaged an 11.5% return over the past 20 years (approximately 7.6% after inflation), real estate has seen a 4-8% increase, depending on the market and property quality.

He advises a balanced approach, suggesting that investors diversify into both real estate and stocks to optimize returns and mitigate risks.

Notable Quote:
Rob Corcoran: "A lot of markets it went higher than... your home just doubled... so if you take the last... it's mind blowing."
[34:46]

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10. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

[41:08 – End]
As the episode concludes, Rob reiterates the importance of proactive financial planning and staying informed about market trends. He underscores that while challenges such as high insurance rates and low inventory persist, opportunities remain for those who are well-prepared and strategic in their real estate endeavors.

The hosts thank Rob for his invaluable insights and hint at a continuation of the discussion in a forthcoming episode, ensuring listeners stay tuned for more expert advice.

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Key Takeaways:

• California Fires: Devastating fires have destroyed over 11,000 homes, with significant long-term impacts on the housing market and insurance industry.

• Insurance Challenges: Insurance premiums are skyrocketing, potentially increasing by 28-35%, making property ownership and rebuilding financially burdensome.

• Rebuilding Hurdles: Comprehensive infrastructure redevelopment and regulatory red tape are delaying the rebuilding process, projecting a minimum of a decade-long recovery.

• National Trends: Rising insurance rates and construction challenges are expected to ripple across the nation, affecting various regions similarly exposed to natural disasters.

• Market Dynamics: The real estate market is experiencing unprecedented low inventory, driving up demand and prices despite high interest rates.

• Interest Rates: Current high mortgage rates at 7% are deterring middle-income homebuyers, but a potential decrease to around 5% is anticipated in the next few years.

• Investment Strategies: Diversifying investments between real estate and the stock market is recommended to balance returns and risks.

• Proactive Planning: Building relationships with lenders and staying financially prepared are crucial for capitalizing on future opportunities in the evolving housing market.

---

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Rob Corcoran: "I think it's going to be one of few that have a brand new home in Los Angeles county near the ocean... the price of those homes are going to be out of this world."
  [02:17]

• Rob Corcoran: "It's extremely expensive... $6,000 probably [in insurance]."
  [05:04]

• Rob Corcoran: "They want nothing to do with this. It's really interesting."
  [09:25]

• Rob Corcoran: "Everyone loves new construction and there's just not a lot of it unless you have a lot of money and live on the coastline."
  [04:15]

• Rob Corcoran: "Most people think 5.5%. People look at and say, okay, we're at 5.5%. Let's just sell. Let's wipe out our debt."
  [25:08]

• Rob Corcoran: "Buy now, keep that rate, keep your relationship with your lender."
  [38:18]

---

Listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the current real estate landscape, informed by expert analysis and real-world examples. Rob Corcoran's insights provide valuable guidance for navigating a challenging market marked by natural disasters, soaring insurance costs, and fluctuating interest rates.

Transcript

[Alice]

Welcome to Dear Alice, a lifestyle approach to interior design.

[Becky]

Hi, everyone. Welcome to Dear Alice. Today we have a favorite of yours and a favorite of ours on the podcast. We have Rob Corcoran here. We had him on year ago and y'all went crazy. I think it was one of our top episodes of the year. Yes. And Rob is a real estate expert.

[Alice]

Yep. In fact. Okay. The best thing about Rob is that he knows everything about the entire market because you own influence free location. So you're actually relocating people from, let's see, Kacha Khan to Miami, like just all over the nation. So you know what? The real estate market's happening in every demographic, which I think is. So the reason, I think why it was such a great episode is because we all, including us three, we're all anxious to know, like, what is like the current, like, I don't know, the temperature in real estate. And like, yeah. And like we've gotten so many questions from our listeners and that's what we do here. We answer your questions. So we wanted to have Rob on the podcast again. I think we're going to make it a yearly thing.

[Rob Corcoran]

Well, thank you.

[Alice]

At least.

[Rob Corcoran]

At least compliment. Come back in. Let's go.

[Alice]

I know. So welcome, Rob. We're so happy to have you.

[Rob Corcoran]

I'm excited to be here. Definitely a big party. Let's get this show on the road.

[Becky]

So, Rob, as you know, 2025 really started out with a bang with those fires in California. I think even though we're recording this from Utah, your primary residence is in Utah. We still are super curious about how this is going to impact all of the markets. And I recently saw a little clip of Josh Altman from Million Dollar Listing, who is a big agent in la.

[Rob Corcoran]

Absolutely.

[Becky]

And he was talking about how he doesn't think that we're going to see those 11,000. How many homes were affected by the fires?

[Rob Corcoran]

Just over 11,000.

[Becky]

He doesn't. He thinks more than 50% of those people, at least 50%, will not rebuild in California and that they'll move to other markets, such as Utah or other places. What are you hearing and seeing on the ground from agents, you know, and what are you experiencing?

[Rob Corcoran]

So I agree with him completely. I talk to. We do business in la, we do business in Orange County. We're starting. We have fielded phone calls, there's no doubt about it, just at my own brokerage from people that are relocating. But I agree 100%. I think it's a long timeline. I was on the phone with one of my agents in Orange county just last night, making sure I have accurate information for today. And he said it's crazy. People in the Palisades are looking on the coast. Of course, that's what they're used to right down in Orange county to look at buying or renting. There are no rentals left. They've pretty much taken them all up. But you know, the other call it 70% of the homes, those are normal everyday people. Your Pacific Palisades homes are average price points around 4 million and obviously it goes up to 100 million. We've all seen them on TV. But the remaining of the remaining amount of those homes are all about $1.4 million. And in Los Angeles, that's nothing. That's a starter home, a nice home that a family's had for 67 years, probably 1100 square feet or something like that. So you do you have a lot of people that I don't think will rebuild right now? From what I was told, you're looking at roughly five years. And I'd be shocked if you can even get a home done in five years. I mean, they're talking about redoing the infrastructure for the fire lines for the future like this. What happened is absolutely horrible, we all know that. But they do have a chance to rebuild. I mean, they're going to rebuild. They have a chance to redo the infrastructure. Right. To make sure something like this, it could happen again, but maybe it's going to be 80% as bad as it was this current last go around. So I completely agree. I don't know what happens to the land that's going to be interesting. Here's the one I don't want to say bright side to this. There's no bright side in what happened, but there are no new homes in California. So for those that do hold on, it's going to be a decade down the road. But my goodness, you're going to be one of few that have a brand new home in Los Angeles county near the ocean. So I think for those that do hold on, the price of those homes are going to be out of this world because everybody loves new construction and there's just not a lot of it unless you have a lot of money and live on the coastline. So it's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.

[David]

How maybe you don't know this, but how are, how are the insurance rates going to affect like the rebuilding in la?

[Rob Corcoran]

I do not know. I know this. I know that the majority of people are underinsured. You can Read all about. It's online. Most companies, like State Farm, is already an issue for us in California, for Californians. But us doing business in California, we're already backing out. They backed out of tens of thousands, thousands of policies, I think a year ago, which is fascinating.

[David]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

And because of earthquakes and exactly this, what happened. But if you read online, if you can get insurance or looking at upping those premiums, anywhere from 28 to 35% is what I've read. Wow. Which is mind blowing. And they're probably.

[David]

Yeah, they were already expensive.

[Becky]

Very expensive for the women out there, like me. What's a normal percentage?

[Rob Corcoran]

A normal percentage of what? For insurance. Gosh, I apologize. I don't. Honestly, I don't know the answer to that.

[Becky]

Like, is it in the tens or the single digits?

[Rob Corcoran]

Oh, I'd say single digits for sure.

[Becky]

Okay. So this is more than triple what it should be.

[Rob Corcoran]

Yeah. And they'd already raised them the last few years on people. We have a dear friend and a client that was looking at buying a horse ranch. It was 10 acres outside of Los Gatos area, and she ended up backing out. The insurance was just out of this world. I mean, it was. I think it was 50, $60,000 a year, and it was only 10 acres.

[David]

Wow.

[Rob Corcoran]

That's not feasible for most people. It doesn't make any.

[David]

That's more than a mortgage payment for most people.

[Rob Corcoran]

And I know that originally it was 13 when she was originally looking at this property. So it's gone from 13,000 to possibly 60. You could chop around, you might find something a little less, but at the end of the day, call it 50 to 60 grand. That's a lot of money for a property like that.

[David]

Do you think that this. The fires in California are going to kind of get insurance companies kind of putting their finger on the pulse of other places in the nation that, you know, like, hey, this might be an issue, and start raising rates.

[Rob Corcoran]

So, funny enough, I just. I had a client reach out from years past and wanted to buy a ranch just outside of Park City, Utah. And we just recorded yesterday and we went down to the wire and trying to find insurance. Never in a million years, in 24 years of real estate, have I ever had a concern of a client getting insurance. Went all the way to the wire because. No, it backs up to the forest. Uinta National Forest, and nobody wanted to insure it. And it was expensive. It wasn't $60,000 expensive. It was extremely expensive, though.

[Becky]

Like more than 60 or less than 60.

[Rob Corcoran]

No, this one, I think came at like 20 or $25,000 a year just to.

[David]

So you're like $2,000 a month just in.

[Rob Corcoran]

Oh, just for insurance, which I'm telling you before that, if we would have insured that property, if we would have closed that property two months ago before the fires. $6,000 probably.

[Becky]

So this is going to be a trend that we're going to see in every. Probably every demographic.

[Rob Corcoran]

Vermont, any property that backs up to a forest. Montana is going to have a difficult time.

[David]

Wow.

[Alice]

Probably any natural disaster. I feel like we like, you know, from North Carolina floods to the fires in la, like, it's just like, boom.

[Rob Corcoran]

So what does that do for people buying homes?

[Alice]

Yeah, exactly.

[Rob Corcoran]

A struggle.

[David]

Changes the game again.

[Rob Corcoran]

Absolutely changes it. Changes the game again.

[David]

Yeah, man.

[Alice]

Even if you, like, you're a landlord, even if, like, you're not even like owning your own property, you own properties other people live in to ensure those properties.

[Rob Corcoran]

Like if those insurance policies double, it makes no financial sense to own that property. Except you're holding on for potential upside gain. Right. Of the property increasing in value. That's all that's left. So really interesting. And that's not everywhere. Yeah, but it's a large part of our country.

[David]

And so. And yeah, that's why I asked that question. Cause I bet insurance companies right now are kind of just like, you know, a little shell shock themselves. And they're like, we need to make sure that we, you know, are protecting their investment too. And that's. So, yeah, they hedge their bets.

[Rob Corcoran]

So they're coming to places like Utah or anywhere in the country, and they're saying, okay, now yours is doubling. It's. It's really interesting. It's gonna be interesting to see how it plays out. You have 11,000 structures, right. I think there are only 67 commercial structures, if I'm correct, quite a few apartment buildings and the rest were all single family residential. So.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

I don't know.

[David]

Are you saying to rent then?

[Rob Corcoran]

What's.

[David]

No, I'm kidding.

[Rob Corcoran]

You know, I know as a licensed real estate agent in the state of Utah. How do I suggest you rent? I'm totally kidding.

[Becky]

Question for you. How do you think that this is going to impact. Well, I'd say the fires, but also, let's say the new administration. How is this going to impact the price of lumber and other and other building materials? I don't know.

[Rob Corcoran]

I. I don't know. I've read about that. Personally, I think the tariffs, this is my opinion. It's Rob Corcoran's Opinion, which doesn't mean much except for this little group right here.

[David]

Oh no, we're putting it in stone.

[Rob Corcoran]

Yeah, you're putting in stone. I think the terrorists tariffs are a lot of fear factor and it's already worked for different situations. Regarding our border. It's already worked within 24 hours. So I think that's. I don't foresee that being a problem. That's just my personal opinion. I don't think it's going to have a problem. We have a great relationship with Canada. They want to keep it that way. I don't think it's going to be an issue at all. I can tell you one thing about rebuilding in Los Angeles, which is interesting though. So very good friend of mine owns a large concrete company in California and I said, you're going to get down there and start building some homes, right. To help out. And their company at their executive meetings backed out and said no, basically we're going to have nothing to do with this. I said, why would you. Look, the reality is the fires are horrible. Horrible. There's still opportunity. Whenever there's a disaster, there's opportunity for someone. It's just the way the world works.

[David]

Right.

[Rob Corcoran]

Good or bad or indifferent. But it's the red tape and everything else that comes along with working in Los Angeles county which they've said they're going to alleviate. We'll see what that looks like. But all that business there, 11,000 structures that they could be pouring concrete for a little piece of it. They're choosing to opt out. They said it's too challenging to work there. They want nothing to do with it. It's really interesting.

[David]

Maybe you don't know this. This is probably more of a construction question too. But you know, like us in Canada are some of the only countries that do like wood framing. Like even Mexico does like you know, cinder blocks or concrete walls and tilt up and all that stuff. Do you see that changing?

[Rob Corcoran]

No.

[David]

Okay.

[Rob Corcoran]

I don't think so.

[Becky]

Even though there could be potential for fire again in the future once they rebuild.

[Rob Corcoran]

Absolutely.

[Becky]

There were still.

[Rob Corcoran]

I will tell you, there's probably a profit thing, right? Oh, absolutely.

[Alice]

It's just cheaper to do.

[Rob Corcoran]

There's a, there's a product out there that dear friend of mine is recently invested in that could. It works. It could change the game. It's how quickly they can get it to market.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

And the way that homes are built. Unbelievable. And when I can share it, I will be happy to share it with you. It's mind blowing technology. I've seen.

[David]

You can say we'll keep it a secret between if you want to know. I'm just kidding.

[Rob Corcoran]

No, but it's good. It's a good thing. The product's already out there. But they don't in order. It's lighter.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

It's less expensive. It's more fire retardant.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

But it's just not. It's not there yet to do that kind of mass production.

[Alice]

And don't you think just like when you're a builder as far as the profitability and like something like an some a new system to adopt, it just takes such a long time which is why we're still framing things the way we frame them.

[Rob Corcoran]

No doubt about it. So it's interesting.

[Alice]

Interesting. Discouraging. I don't know all the things I was going to say just to your point of like rebuilding like along the coastline and like he pulling out. I will say that like any of the homes that we've had, like just as a design center, just like working on new build. Not even new builds. Mostly remodels. Right.

[Rob Corcoran]

Right.

[Alice]

From like California all the way up to Seattle, Portland there. None of them happen. Or they just take so much longer than anywhere.

[Rob Corcoran]

How long?

[Becky]

How long?

[Alice]

I have, I have two prod. Three projects actually between like Seattle and Portland that still haven't broken ground. But we've been working on them like on and off for the last like five, six years. It's crazy.

[Rob Corcoran]

Just gentleman that we just. A client. I just bought a property from him and he lives in Manhattan Beach. Took him six years to build his home. He's like, I will never build a house in California.

[Alice]

The red tape is just nuts to get anything approved, like any permits or anything. It's just like a year plus and.

[Rob Corcoran]

Now less than a year in order to the California Coastal act, they're trying to eliminate a few things to make that a quicker process good. And people are of course an outrage saying, well, why haven't you done this before? This is complete chaos. So maybe things will change for the better. I don't know.

[Alice]

But you're sitting on an ocean, friend. I don't know. It is Los Angeles.

[Becky]

I'll bet you it will change for the better.

[Rob Corcoran]

Yeah, I think it will.

[Becky]

Has to, right?

[Rob Corcoran]

Yeah. I mean the saddest part, as we all know, it's not just the homes, it's the communities. It's those schools, it's where kids play soccer, go to ballet. All the things that's like really the sad part. Right. The museums and all that. So I don't know how you. I mean, they're going to rebuild. Look, for America, it's going to be rebuilt better than last time, which is no doubt about it. Communities will come back. But. Yes. How long is it going to take? I mean, just let's imagine for a second there was no red tape here. There is no red tape. It would still take a decade.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

Going 24 7, it would take an entire decade.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

And by the way, who wants to move into their new neighborhood and have. Okay, so your home gets first built. You're like, I'm back in now. You're going to wait 10 years and watch trucks for 10 years go up and down the road and you'll just.

[Becky]

Keep washing your windows because there's so much construction.

[Rob Corcoran]

Dirt stand dirt. So that's a problem. No dust, no dirt. For real. Yeah.

[David]

I mean, in just like the wild. Like it's. It's not the same. It's not the same neighborhood. Neighborhood.

[Rob Corcoran]

I do believe though, that 20 years down the road when it's all built, it's going to be extraordinary.

[David]

Oh, yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

There's no doubt about they're going to do the right thing. It's just going to take time. And unfortunately, that's where the challenge comes in. If you stay there or do you leave? Right.

[David]

And I mean, the other hard part about it that I haven't. Not a lot of people have talked about, but it's like, it's like, okay, well, let's just move. Like, who can just uproot their entire lives and move? Like you said, like, kids are going to schools, you have a job. Somebody's like, oh, I just moved Utah. It's like, well, what are you going to do there? You know what I mean? I was going to move my construction business there or whatever people.

[Rob Corcoran]

And I don't know how this works, but for those 50%, let's say Josh is right. I totally agree with him. It could even be higher that aren't going to rebuild. I mean, they're sitting in rentals right now or they're their family's home in a one bedroom with three kids. How long can you. There are no rentals, apparently in la. I mean, I'm sure there's a few, but not many of these people have all dispersed and found homes there. Right?

[David]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

Do you just. Let's say you do own your home outright. Do you just cut your losses and you sell that lot for $600,000 and you move on? I think that's probably realistically what you're going to do.

[David]

Yeah, that's.

[Rob Corcoran]

You're out, you get cash. You can go to other states and you can buy a property. Hopefully it's cash or close to it. Really, really sad.

[David]

It really is.

[Becky]

I'm. I don't know how this works. Sue and I obviously know the luxury side of things because that's who our client is. But if you're going to rebuild an 11,000 or 1100 square foot home, these people probably haven't ever had to work with an architect before. Choose a builder. So there's got to be some sort of developer that will come in and offer five, five floor plans.

[Rob Corcoran]

That's what I think.

[Becky]

Right.

[Rob Corcoran]

Almost a track system. They're going to have to.

[Becky]

And we'll build 60.

[Rob Corcoran]

You build 60 from these appliances, wall colors here.

[Becky]

Choose this slab countertop almost like for here in Utah. Ivory homes.

[Rob Corcoran]

Completely agree.

[Becky]

You need people like that to come in and they need to expedite and make this easy because the average homeowner doesn't know how to go through that process.

[Rob Corcoran]

And the nice thing about that is it's not you. Look, your clients are very engaged in what they do every day. Right. They're making change orders, you're giving suggestions and you're doing this. You're 100% right, 90% of those homes. These people would be thrilled if you said and 28 months. Here are your selections. A, B and C. By the way, you do have a brand new home. It's horrible what happened, but at the end of the day, when these homes get built, there are no new homes in Los Angeles county. Unless you're up in Santa Clarita. It's. It's the worst thing could ever happen. But moving forward. It already happened. We know we have to move forward. Everyone's gonna have a new home. And I think you're right. If they go that direction, just like it's a track neighborhood. Yeah, it's gonna go fast, it's gonna go smooth. They don't have to think about much. They need to show up at a four way inspection and they need to show up to close. And however that's going to work is going to be interesting with insurance and what have you. But I totally agree. That's the only way. There is no way to move forward unless you do. Unless.

[Becky]

Unless a lot of these outfits are like your friend in the concrete business. They're like, I don't want to touch this.

[Rob Corcoran]

Right.

[Becky]

So you have to have folks that are really passionate about the rebuild.

[Rob Corcoran]

And so, yeah, that's the other piece. So you've got to have the materials, you've got to have the people. Tractors.

[David]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

The people to build it. You talk about the power line, the sewer lines and all those types of things have all been contaminated. Right. The water lines. My opinion of it, and this is just me, they're gonna have to rip everything out and redo it again. We're talking. And that is going to take more than a decade. That's the reality is I do not think they can make it happen in a decade if they do it right. They've already talked about putting in better fire lines, wider. Right.

[David]

Be smart.

[Rob Corcoran]

Be smart. You'd be crazy not to do it. But you're going to have to install new water lines, you're going to have to install new electrical.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

That is not building a home. That is building an entire community structure, infrastructure from ground up. Just like they would do in South Jordan, Utah, behind us on a. On farmland. No. They have to tear out the concrete for all the pads. 11,000 pads.

[David]

Almost harder than starting from a.

[Rob Corcoran]

It's 5x harder. I can't even fathom how they're going to stage. This is really what it's going to come down to. Right. You can't have one builder going in there, building here and then building here and then build. You can't do that. That would make no sense whatsoever. They need to build, like you said. Great idea. They're going to have to do that. Build multiple homes at a time. Get a community, build 10, 20, 30 homes at a time. Move on to the next 10, 20, 30. It's going to be interesting. We're all going to learn a lot. The whole country is going to learn a lot from a disaster like this.

[Alice]

True developers will do it and then just rent them out also.

[Rob Corcoran]

Yeah. The other thing that I think is interesting is this is my opinion. So I hope I don't get a lot of bad reviews, but some of these people are trying to save their homes. And I understand why you're saving your homes. It's your family. It's memories.

[David]

It's all your stuff, too.

[Rob Corcoran]

If I was in there, if I was in the middle of that, I hate to say it, I want my home to burn down. Because now you're the only home standing. Who's going to buy your home if you wanted to move? No one. You got 10 years of construction we just talked about. Right. But you have smoke within that house and they've already talked about that on the news. I don't even know if Those homes are livable because you've got soot and smoke that is just soaked into that house. I actually think most of those homes will be torn down by the insurance. I hope the insurance companies do the right thing. Most of the homes should be torn down because that's unhealthy. Really, really unhealthy for the people that be moving back in.

[David]

And your surroundings are desolate, too, and just in like a war zone. It looks like hope.

[Rob Corcoran]

Yeah. From it.

[Alice]

Apocalyptic.

[Rob Corcoran]

Rebuild it the best they can. I mean, it's L. A. Where most of those homes are, is a wetland. Right. Kind of talked about this, I know, earlier for the show, but the rains come sometimes, the grass grows. Santa Ana winds come, it burns. It's done it for a million years. And they chose to build homes on it. So I hope they can do something to mitigate this from. They'll never be able to mitigate it from not happening. And it's going to happen again. But maybe it's 10% this time and not, you know, maybe it's a couple hundred homes or 100 homes in 50 years, not 11,000. So.

[Alice]

Yeah, even the water supply issue. I mean, like, the water supply issue.

[Rob Corcoran]

Yeah. I would imagine. I know nothing about this, but I would imagine they're going to take. I wouldn't drink water from anywhere near there. No.

[Alice]

No one should even to put out future fires. Like, they just don't have water. Do you know what I mean?

[Rob Corcoran]

I'm talking about drinking water.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

I mean, that's.

[Alice]

That's more important.

[Rob Corcoran]

It's nuts. I think we'll learn a lot. We always do.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

That's life. But they'll. They'll do the right thing. But I. I can't even fathom 10 years, to be completely frank with you. If they choose to tear up the streets, redo water lines and electrical for that amount of mileage. Oh, my gosh. That could be five years in itself before you could build a home in some places.

[David]

Yeah. So true.

[Rob Corcoran]

Anyway, yeah.

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[Becky]

Let's talk about the market, shall we?

[Rob Corcoran]

Which one?

[Becky]

Well, it's. Well, you're nationwide, so I think the market. Market in general. Adam was telling me, Adam, my husband, he was talking about how he read something recently. I wish I knew the source about how there hasn't been very many homes that have sold. In fact, it's so low that this is the lowest amount of homes that have been sold since 1994.

[Rob Corcoran]

So it's the lowest amount of homes. But every home that's on the market selling. So it's the lowest amount of inventory. Not home sold. Yes, but it's because of lack of inventory.

[David]

Okay.

[Becky]

It's always how they spin it, right?

[Rob Corcoran]

The market. Oh, absolutely. The market is just in most places. You have some markets like a Houston right now, there's an unbelievable amount of homes on the market out of nowhere. Why they have a high inventory.

[Becky]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

Not quite sure. I. To be honest with you, I'm not quite sure on that one. But then you come here and we have absolutely nothing on the market. You go to Arizona is interesting. They kind of slowed down on a lull and all these homes are coming to market. And I just called our agent there and they're like it's hit or miss in pockets. Right. The one thing about today's market is your home better be good. 2 years ago or even last year. We were talking about this last year we were chatting about this. We were kind of at the tail end of craziness.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

If your home's not good, people aren't buying it. That's the difference. Right now. If you have a good quality home well taken care of, in a great location, it will be gone. You'll have 10 offers still, even in Salt Lake City, most likely within a Few days.

[David]

Do you think that's that problem is like derived from rates being so high so like you can't sell. If you do sell your home, where the hell are you going to go, right? What are you gonna buy?

[Rob Corcoran]

No, you're 100%. So you wanna get into rates for a minute?

[Alice]

Yeah, let's do that. Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

This is where dreams come true. I love to go for a ride. Here we go.

[Alice]

Take a sip, y'all.

[Rob Corcoran]

We take a sip. It's water right there. So here's where we're stuck. Middle income America. First time home buyers rates are at 7%. We got down in the sixes and it got exciting for about a day and a half and then we went back to seven. It is hard to buy a home right now. No different than our conversation a year ago. We have low inventory because we have the majority of America's homes that are either paid off or 2.5 to 3.5%. So we have this conversation all the time. What rate is it going to take? The only way for us to change this market, prices are still going up. The only way to change this market is to get inventory. We need inventory. We're about 1.2 million homes short. You can read multiple articles on average. Call it 1.2 million homes short in America as what we need currently. Today there's millions of people looking at buying homes and can't. It's mind blowing. Right. So the only thing.

[Becky]

Can I ask you what the norm is since how long have you done real estate?

[Rob Corcoran]

No, it's been 20 some years. I was used to normal. We never had to look at those stats because we always had enough inventory on the market. Yeah. My guess is before COVID I'm taking complete guess. I bet we were half a million short and now we're almost two two and a half x.

[Becky]

Can I ask you why we're so short? Just a lot of people have interest rates.

[Rob Corcoran]

So everyone love those low interest rates five years ago. 2.5%.

[Becky]

This one too smart.

[Rob Corcoran]

Yeah, There you go. Right?

[Becky]

Yep.

[Rob Corcoran]

So there's a few things. There's a few things that are happening from this. This is so interesting to me. So we need more inventory in the market. What's the only way that that's going to happen?

[Becky]

Multifamily?

[Rob Corcoran]

No.

[Alice]

We all hold hands and we say let's tell.

[Rob Corcoran]

Yeah, thank you very much.

[Alice]

And then we all give you one.

[Rob Corcoran]

Reason you're going to get rid of your two and a half percent rate.

[Alice]

Because I need the inventory to go up. So More people. Give me a better reason.

[David]

More space or.

[Rob Corcoran]

Okay, there you go.

[Alice]

Yeah, yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

The only reason that you.

[Alice]

The logical reason.

[Rob Corcoran]

So there's. The only reason you would do that is because rates drop low enough. So you have. Here's the demographic you have of the United States. You have people. For five years, we had. You have a young family. Great example. We were just talking about your kids. You imagine that you and your wife bought your first home. You're in a condominium. Great. We have one kid. We got a three bedroom condo. Now you have three kids. They're growing. They want a backyard. What do you naturally. What's the natural progression? Hey, honey. We're gonna go buy our first residential home. Oh, awesome. They're $950,000 and there's 10 offers in everyone. How exciting does that sound?

[David]

And rates are 7.

[Rob Corcoran]

And rates are 7. So, by the way, now we have a $1,200 mortgage. We're gonna go buy this home. Yes. We're gonna get some equity in our helmet. It's gonna sell in a heartbeat. But wait a minute now. We just upgraded, and now Our mortgage is $3,400 a month. Why would anybody do that?

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

So few key dynamics that are really, really interesting. One is what have a lot. If you. If any of you guess this, I'll be just so impressed. Oh, gosh.

[Alice]

Okay.

[Rob Corcoran]

What has. What's. What have most people accumulated over the last four years? Money homes.

[Becky]

Yeah.

[Alice]

Equity.

[Rob Corcoran]

Boom. You got debt, right? Inflation. What'd you say?

[Alice]

I said equity. And then I'm like, there you go.

[Rob Corcoran]

Unfortunately, you need equity to wipe out debt. So some of my lending partners are seeing that people are like, when are rates going to drop? When are rates going to drop? I'm going to give you a crazy stat about lenders in a minute. Hang tight. It's good. So people are starting to call. Well, you can't. The rates aren't dropped. When are rates going to drop? Calling the lenders nonstop because they've accumulated $100,000 of credit card debt. And where do most people have money to pay off? The only thing. So the only thing that's going to leave you. Most people think 5.5%. People look at and say, okay, we're at 5.5%. Let's just sell. Let's wipe out our debt. We have $300,000 left over from all this equity. Let's go buy that next level of home. Right. And it goes the other way, too. People that are downsizing.

[Becky]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

The game is the exact same. They're just going the opposite direction. There's still no inventory.

[Becky]

That's what's happening in my neighborhood.

[Rob Corcoran]

There you go, downsizing. Kids are going to college.

[Becky]

They're like, I have seven bathrooms to clean. What am I doing?

[Rob Corcoran]

Why would you do that?

[Becky]

I want to easier life.

[Rob Corcoran]

So you have that dynamic. You have no inventory. You have people that need to pay off debt to move, yet they're afraid to move because they don't want a mortgage to go from 1200 to $3400. We are completely locked. And most, a lot of people feel like 5.5%. People just say, oh, it's worth it. I need to move on with my life. Yeah, I don't think so. I think it's going to get down to five. And I do not see that happening anytime soon. And I talk to lenders all over the country. I don't even see how we get there. Typically speaking, mortgage rates follow inflation.

[David]

Yeah, right.

[Rob Corcoran]

Typically doesn't mean all the time. But for the most part, when we get inflation really dropping, we're going to start seeing those rates drop. I still think it's a couple years of a really challenging time. So.

[David]

Yeah, you think it depresses me and.

[Rob Corcoran]

I want to cry, but I'm not going to do it in the show.

[David]

So you think it's like two to three years or you think it's like five years?

[Rob Corcoran]

I think it'll start in two years. Okay, so I think year three to five could be. We'll see more inventory on the market.

[David]

Let me ask this. So if people are kind of like waiting, being like, okay, let's, you know, the, the new presidential administration gets in, let's see what rates do at the end of the year. It's not going to be at the end of the year. It's going to be two to three years. So do you say bite the bullet, buy now, refi in three to five years or. Because, I mean, in two to three years from now, maybe stuff goes up and you're not saving any money.

[Rob Corcoran]

On the team that just three years ago, thought I saw this, I was a young real estate agent in 2008, 9 and 10, I watched absolute disaster occur in front of us. Yeah, yeah, just hang tight. This thing's gonna explode. And I talked to a few of my friends that are much smarter than me, and they're like, no, there's not. And here's why. Everything I just shared with you, lack of inventory, boom, boom. All these different factors. And now I've really taken the time to educate myself, study it for the last three years. And I don't see any change to this. It is unbelievable, the prices that are still going up in certain markets around the country, most markets, actually. So an administration can only suit. Doesn't matter if it's Republican, Democrat, Independent, doesn't matter. They can only do so much. They can do the right things to turn the ship, which I think is going to happen. Very confident it's going to happen. As a matter of fact, that's why we're seeing spending. I was talking to you earlier about people are very confident in the next few years on where the economy's going and people of high net worth are spending money like crazy right now. They are buying the properties that they've wanted to buy for the last few years and have kind of held off. They are spending right now. It's happening. And where I live in Park City, it's happening in Salt Lake City. And then I started calling around thinking this is just crazy. So I call my agents in Miami and I call agents in la and they're seeing the same exact thing. It's really an interesting time.

[Becky]

So can you give an example of that? Like when you say the properties, like what's the price tag that they're buying and why? Why?

[Rob Corcoran]

Three plus million dollars is kind of.

[Becky]

And this is second homes.

[Rob Corcoran]

Oh, second, third, fourth, fifth homes. Yeah.

[Becky]

Are they buying them just as an investment or do they want to live this lifestyle?

[Rob Corcoran]

Well, we find in Park City a lot of people want to live the lifestyle, but still, for the most part, these are second, third homes or more for them.

[Becky]

You know, they're not that.

[Rob Corcoran]

No, they're passionate. It depends on the client.

[Becky]

Okay.

[Rob Corcoran]

Some. It's truly just another home. The ranch I just sold. Passion beyond, which is so exciting. A whole nother story for another day. Just absolutely awesome, right? The American dream.

[Becky]

Yeah.

[David]

I could be wrong about this. I have heard that if you buy a home in Park City and it is your primary residence that you get a break on property tax.

[Rob Corcoran]

About half.

[David]

Okay.

[Alice]

Really? That's significant.

[David]

Do you think that. That more kind of areas in the country can, could, can and should adopt that to kind of. I don't know.

[Rob Corcoran]

I don't know. That's interesting. I believe. I don't know all the. I've lived there a long time, but really it was to gain revenue. I mean, the school system's amazing up there. They have everything they could possibly want, primarily from all this tax revenue that comes in. You realistically, you have 85% of every home up there sits empty. The average ski home up there is lived in. This is actually sad is 18 days a year. So you have homes from 3 to $52 million that are just sitting empty. Right. Wow. That could actually help a lot of people in Los Angeles, which is kind of interesting for temporary housing. That's a whole nother conversation. I forgot that your question.

[David]

Areas will like Park City will kind of offset.

[Rob Corcoran]

I don't think so. I think that you have to have a reason to be able to adopt it in a location that will. That people don't mind paying 1% on their $10 million home. So is Sugarhouse in Salt Lake City going to be able adopt that? No, there's not a chance. People would be like, thanks so much when I'm out of here. I don't think so.

[David]

Okay.

[Rob Corcoran]

And I'm not sure there very well could be other communities in the United States that do have that. I'm not sure. Something I can look into though, just.

[Becky]

To make people feel good about the rates for one minute, you can say about themselves.

[Rob Corcoran]

Let's go there. What do you want to ask me?

[Becky]

I just, I thought you made a really intelligent comment last time we had you on the podcast, which is 7% interest isn't a bad rate.

[Rob Corcoran]

No, it's not.

[Becky]

I mean, 15% is normal, right?

[Alice]

No, 7% was normal, right.

[Rob Corcoran]

At one time it was 15%.

[Becky]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

Anyone that's 10 or 15 years old and you have the conversation. Well, back when I, yeah. I'm like, but wait a minute, they're not comparing. And I tell people all the time, you're not comparing apples to apples.

[Becky]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

If homes were, if townhomes were still $350,000 for a nice new ivory townhome, sure, 15 would be a stretch, but you could probably pull it off. Now you're at 7% and your homes are 8, $900,000. Totally different game.

[Becky]

Yeah, that's true. Yeah.

[David]

Like in the 80s when it was, you know, 15 plus percent, but homes were like 50, $60,000. So you're like now keep in mind.

[Rob Corcoran]

Too what they made as a living, their wages were lower still. We literally doubled in price within a 24 month period. Yeah. So there's no apples to apples to that. Okay.

[Becky]

I was curious about that. It does feel like it doubled in price.

[Rob Corcoran]

Absolute doubled.

[Becky]

So you legitimately doubled.

[Rob Corcoran]

Oh, no doubt. In most markets at 100. A lot of markets it went higher than.

[Becky]

So do you, when you say inflation coming down, do you think, you think that's going to Come down. Groceries will be less money. Houses will come down in price.

[Rob Corcoran]

Everybody's talking about eggs. Holy cow. There's an egg war out there. Geez. I don't eat eggs, so I'm not worried about it. They made me sick. But that's a whole other conversation too. I do not. I do not think there's a chance in the world that food is ever coming down.

[Becky]

Yeah, what about houses?

[Alice]

Said here, y'all?

[Rob Corcoran]

No, not in the foreseeable future. Anything can happen in a decade.

[David]

But businesses don't like giving money back.

[Rob Corcoran]

If they can sell it. Why would you sell it? We are trained to go to McDonald's. Whatever. Just call it fast food. And you now pay $13 for a. Whatever meal they are putting together these days. Right. Why would they ever go back? Of course the product price is going to drop. Markets ebb and flow. Your business ebb and flows. And furniture prices and all those different things. Right. No way. We go into a restaurant, we expect to fully pay $80 to sit down and have that and maybe dessert for $80. Right. No, there's not a chance in the world. It's ever changing, and it's really sad. I told myself, get into the restaurant business. Everybody's told me, because I'm fascinated. There's so many companies I want to jump into and start.

[David]

I feel the same. Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

Everyone's like, don't ever do it. My friends own restaurants. Don't ever do. I'm like, are you crazy? It's the next gold rush. If you ask me, I could be completely wrong and get a bunch of restaurateurs that are just ripping me apart. This thing goes on.

[David]

But comment if you like. What do you think?

[Rob Corcoran]

No, I don't think. I don't see. We're not going to Chick Fil a tomorrow. And it's like, oh, my gosh, it's 4.99 for a meal. No, it's not happening.

[David]

Having said that.

[Rob Corcoran]

No way.

[David]

Like, kudos. High five to in n out. I don't know how they've done it, but like. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[Alice]

Every single time.

[Rob Corcoran]

And a water.

[Becky]

Yep.

[David]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

$8.

[Becky]

Yeah.

[David]

Don't let that secret, you know.

[Rob Corcoran]

Service is amazing. Spotless, clean, friendly.

[Alice]

Consistency.

[Rob Corcoran]

Consistency.

[Becky]

So good.

[Alice]

Exactly.

[Becky]

I love it. Okay, let's talk for a minute. Yes, let's do it. Has the real estate outpaced the stock market returns in the past 10 to 20 years? Stocks are low maintenance.

[Rob Corcoran]

So that's a question that can be answered, but not really. Oh, and here's why. Okay, so The s and P500 has gone up an average of. It's like 11.5% on average the last 20 years. But after you account for inflation, it's like 7 point, don't quote me. It's pretty close. Like 7.6. Right. Real estate goes up 4 to 8% in the last 20 years. It also depends on what you invest in. Right. So see why I can't really answer that. If you're risky, risk Reward. The last 10 years, you've done really well. I mean, the stock market's gone up. Oh, no. On the stock market, unbelievable. But yes, in real estate too. Your home just doubled. You didn't do anything. You went to sleep, you got up next morning you're like, wait a minute, my little $500,000 home. I say little meaning that in our market, that was somewhat of a starter home is now 900,000 to a million dollars. In some locations. It's mind blowing. So if you take the last. Well, you know, the reality is, if you just took the last five years, I still think the stock market probably outpaced real estate just a little bit. There's so many factors. What you invest in, what you get to write off on owning a piece of real estate. Do you have a mortgage? Do you not have a mortgage?

[Becky]

What you enjoy. Right, right. Like, I'm passionate about homes. I wouldn't be that. I, I don't know even intelligently how to think about the stock market. Right. So I think that's why you can.

[Rob Corcoran]

Have a wealth advisor take care of those things for you. Right.

[Becky]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

But I believe like most to just a little bit in both and you're, you'll be just fine.

[Becky]

Right.

[David]

So getting back to the interest rates you had looked into the camera and you're like, we're going to get to this in a second. I don't think we ever did. So can you go, can you fill us in on that stat you're going to get?

[Rob Corcoran]

Absolutely. So interest rates are high. No one's really refinancing right Now. So in 2021, there were 420,000 lenders in America working every single day to refinance your home, so on and so forth. Guess how many there are today.

[David]

Are we talking companies or people?

[Rob Corcoran]

People. The lender that you would call and say, hey Mike, I want to refinance my house. Let's get the ball rolling.

[David]

420,000.

[Rob Corcoran]

2021.

[David]

2021.

[Becky]

I feel like it's going to be so dramatic.

[Rob Corcoran]

I'm saying 150,150.

[David]

Yeah, I, I was going to, I was going to cut it in half.

[Rob Corcoran]

Okay, so what do you see? You're at 210.

[Becky]

I'm going to be dramatic.

[Rob Corcoran]

Be dramatic.

[Becky]

I'm going to say 68,000.

[Rob Corcoran]

Pretty darn good. Oh, my gosh, 94,000. That shows you. We talked about limited inventory.

[Becky]

What happened?

[Rob Corcoran]

Limited inventory. There's no mortgages, so it's not. One lender said it's crickets.

[David]

It's not as lucrative. So people are.

[Rob Corcoran]

There's no money, there's no homes to sell. It's mind blowing how you talked about the, you made the comment about Adam reading. Yeah, that's, that's what that stems from. So homes are still selling quickly, but there's nothing to sell. Therefore, we've lost 77.8%, the exact number from what I read out of the business. Crazy. So why am I sharing this? Besides, that's fascinating. Stat. Here's why. Get to know your lender. If you own a home right now, get to know your lender. And here's why we talked about rates might be two years. No one really knows. But I believe in two years we're going to see if you're at a 7% interest rate right now and it drops to 5 or 5.5, 5 and a half, you're going to, you save $1,000, $800, 1500amonth, depending on your mortgage. Right. What do you think is going to happen if rates drop tomorrow morning to 5.5%?

[Becky]

They're going to be so busy that they can't take your car.

[Rob Corcoran]

You got it. Thank you very much. Just build your relationship with your lender. Let your lender know when rates get to about here, please contact me. Any good lender will do that for you.

[Becky]

We're missing like two thirds of them.

[Rob Corcoran]

Absolutely. You want a relationship with your lender right now, I promise you. Because otherwise you're just going to be one of 20,000 calls and you might miss out on that rate. So build that relationship. Go back to your old lender and say, hey, I hear that rates might. Well, first of all, ask them what they think. Most likely they're going to tell you. Most likely they're going to tell you. In the next couple of years, things will probably drop. There has to be a certain amount of a drop depending on where your rate is for it to make financial sense to do it. But let's say it goes down to 5.5. Most are at 7. You're 100% refinancing. Build the relationship be on the top of their mind when that thing hits. You're exactly right. There are going to be people that are trying to lock in at these rates and can't. There is no way in the world that people that the 94,000 lenders that are currently licensed today are going to be able to manage that kind of volume.

[Becky]

Did you experience that when you probably didn't. When the rates jumped down to six something for a minute and then went.

[Rob Corcoran]

Back up a little bit, lenders saw a little bit of it, but not much. That wasn't enough of a drop down dramatic because you still got to pay for closing costs. Now most people, when you're refiing right now, which is nice. Most banks, I don't know one that's not. You're getting a free refi because they want to keep your business. They know rates are high, they know they're going to drop.

[Alice]

Yeah.

[Rob Corcoran]

So they want you as a client, which is smart. And that's also. It's helping pushing the market. I think you that asked earlier and I don't think I answered the question, do I buy now or do I just wait? You do buy now because I just don't see. I don't see change. I do not see homes going backwards. There's no way for homes to go backwards with the lack of inventory that we have. So buy now, keep that rate, keep your relationship with your lender. And then boy, oh boy, tell them at 5.5% or 5.2 or 5.8, wherever you feel comfortable. Let's refill, have a conversation with them. I just did this the other day. What does it look like, Danny, if rates get to 5.5? Okay, your mortgage goes to here. What happens if it drops to five? It goes here. How much would it cost me to buy down financially if I'm going to keep my home from 5 to 5.5? Figure out all those numbers. So you know in your mind, all right, this is what we're going to do. 5.3, lock my rate, no questions asked. What do you need to do though to be prepared for that? What do you need to do?

[Becky]

Well, you're going to have to have closing costs and everything on hand.

[Rob Corcoran]

So you need to figure out your closing costs. Depending on your bank, you might, as I just mentioned, you might not have to pay much, but have everything prepared. You know that you need to go to W2S. You know that you need your last two bank statements. All those things that you go through that are kind of a hassle. And a pain and no one likes. Just be prepared. Get it right in front of your lender to make sure you close. I would highly, highly, highly suggest building a relationship with a new lender or your existing that you haven't probably talked to in 10 years. They'll be thrilled to hear from you because they have absolutely nothing to do. No, I'm totally kidding. I'm totally kidding with you. Good. Lenders are doing well right now, but that's 77 of all lenders in America do not exist right now. Just kind of a little tidbit of information.

[Becky]

Okay, yeah, that's great. Yeah, I'm sure listeners would love to know that. Good stuff.

[Rob Corcoran]

That's all I've got.

[Becky]

Thanks, Rob.

[Rob Corcoran]

You're welcome.

[Becky]

Okay guys, this completes part one of our two part series with Rob Corcoran, our real estate expert. We're so, so grateful to him for coming on. And we're going to pick it up next week with the rest of this juicy conversation. But first I want to tell you guys about our trade program. A lot of you are interior designers out there, design enthusiasts. We have a fantastic trade program. We are offering things that aren't offered on the market because we are manufacturing our own product and so we're able bring. What are we doing, like 6,006, 600 of our own SKUs. Yes, yeah, yeah, definitely. So we have so many unique products. We've got fantastic pricing for you. These things are built like tanks. Corey is in charge of making sure these are engineered, built. They're so beautiful. They're available almost always in stock. So make sure and check out that trade program. How do they find the trade program, Corey?

[David]

So you're going to go to alicelanehome.com the Design Services tab and then go down to, to the trade. You can fill out the form there and one of our reps will contact you. It's easy, seamless.

[Becky]

Yeah. So good. Thank you guys for listening. If you have any questions for us, always send those to dear Alice at AliceLaneHome and we'll catch you next time. Hey, thanks for listening. If you like our show, please leave a five star rating.