Trillions chased private credit after the banks stepped back from risk and the rush left private credit risk your marks may not be pricing in.

I sat down with Daniel Bird, credit analyst and founder of Thornwood Hill LLP, to find where the real danger lives: overconcentration, inflated valuations, and the opacity that lets a weak loan sit quietly on the books.

Daniel traces the line from the global financial crisis, when banks pulled back and private capital rushed to fill the gap, straight into today’s reckoning. We get into how these portfolios get marked, why a mispriced asset is the threat you won’t see until a refinancing fails, and where the secondary market turns “bumps in the road” into the entry points you’ve been waiting for.

You’ll hear why buying seasoned loans can beat originating new paper, how to call your own balls and strikes in an unregulated market, and Daniel’s contrarian read — that all this uncertainty may have left parts of the market cheaper than the headlines suggest.

The turbulence isn’t the threat to your private credit book, not knowing how to read it is.

About Our Guest:

Daniel Bird is the Founder of Thornwood Hill LLP specializing in credit and alternatives asset management. He translates credit data into clear insights that help investors, boards, and founders stay ahead of market turns by spotting stress signals before stocks react. Connect further with Daniel on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-bird-18456a42/.

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First Lien Capital specializes in distressed debt and mortgage workout strategies on residential and commercial real estate. First Lien Resolutions provides Special Assets expertise to banks and funds on portfolio risk, recovery strategies, and profitable arbitrage.

Schedule a consultation with Bill Bymel to REVIVE your portfolio today https://billbymel.com/advisor/⁠⁠⁠.

The Storm: Markets Meet Mother Nature is now officially released and available at Amazon and other major retailers: https://a.co/d/0gPB0yrY

This book and its concepts are drawn from decades of work across real estate, mortgage portfolios, distressed debt, and special assets to open the conversation of how converging forces are reshaping markets and offering the framework for investors and institutions to navigate what comes next.

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Music: Snappy by Jonathan Boyle

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