Decoder with Nilay Patel: The Movement to Take Down Tesla

Date: March 20, 2025
Host: Nilay Patel, Editor-in-Chief, The Verge
Guest: Ed Niedermeyer, automotive journalist, author, and Tesla Takedown protest organizer

Overview

In this episode, Nilay Patel dives deep into the growing protest movement aimed at Tesla, its connection to CEO Elon Musk's political role, and broader questions about Tesla’s business fundamentals. Joined by automotive journalist Ed Niedermeyer, a leading voice in the Tesla Takedown movement, the conversation examines Tesla’s myth versus its reality, the effectiveness of protests, and the uncertain path forward for the company.

Main Themes

• The unraveling of Tesla’s public myth and brand amid Musk’s political ascent
• How protest movements are leveraging Tesla’s business vulnerabilities
• Discrepancies between Tesla’s narrative and financial/technological realities
• The challenge of rehabilitating Tesla’s image in a polarized, politicized climate

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tesla’s Image Versus Reality

[05:00]

• Myth v. Reality: Tesla has always thrived on a strong mythos—technological superiority, environmental mission, and investment potential. Ed Niedermeyer argues these were largely facades:
  • The battery swap tech was hyped but not truly deployed.
  • Diesel generators were used to fake green charging.
  • Core profitability has always been questionable.
• Quote:

  "There was the mission facade, there was the technological leadership facade and there was this, you know, profitability facade. All of which kind of turned out to not really be the case."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [06:03]

2. Tesla’s Business Model

[07:10]

• Tesla promised a disruptive auto business model, but fundamentally still relies on selling cars.
• Revenue from software and services (like FSD/autonomy) remains a distant hope, repeatedly delayed.
• Quote:

  "The idea that Tesla has changed the fundamental economics of the car business is not true."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [08:01]

3. The Political Context and Stock Weakness

[10:26]

• Musk, now deeply entwined with the federal government, is a polarizing figure (especially after aligning with Trump and major federal cuts).
• Tesla's stock price has begun to reflect deeper business issues, not just Musk’s politics.
• Protesters are capitalizing on existing business vulnerabilities (slowing sales, thin margins, lack of product innovation) to amplify pressure.
• Quote:

  "What I've been trying to help people understand is that this is not an ordinary boycott situation. This is a business whose core fundamentals are already nosing over."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [11:11]

4. The Collapse in Tesla Demand

[14:41]

• Exploding demand during the pandemic led automakers to emulate Tesla—but much of the demand was driven by hype and a unique, now-fading tech-elite market.
• The move from positive to ambiguous tech sector sentiment has hurt Tesla.
• Overpromising and underdelivering on EVs and self-driving have led to disillusionment.
• Quote:

  "One of the downsides... is that when you overhype things and there's disillusionment afterwards, you can put the whole trend at risk."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [15:54]

5. Shifting Politics of Tesla Ownership

[20:13]

• Early adopters were wealthy, left-leaning coastal consumers. Musk’s rightward pivot isn’t expanding his market—it’s defensive, to avoid legal scrutiny.
• Most Tesla buyers, even those now politically right-leaning, dislike overt partisanship.
• Quote:

  "Elon's involvement in politics is not about selling more vehicles, it's about playing defense, not offense. It's about avoiding the consequences."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [20:52]

6. Technical Realities & Autonomy Hype

[23:50]

• Full Self Driving (FSD) is not coming to fruition; technological hurdles are vast and unlikely to be solved via Tesla’s current approach.
• Tesla’s FSD vision reflects what people want to imagine but not technical plausibility.
• Humanlike, versatile robots (like “Optimus” or full L5 autonomy) are science fiction, not imminent business opportunities.
• Quote:

  "What's being sold is not technologically plausible at all... The simple version is the reason that this has gone on for eight years and isn't already universally recognized as the biggest fraud in Silicon Valley history is that it's what's being sold is not technologically plausible at all."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [23:53]

7. Leadership Vacuum at Tesla

[26:29]

• With Musk distracted, there’s no clear day-to-day leader. Top remaining talent is loyal, not necessarily visionary or innovative.
• Tesla’s culture now prizes loyalty to Musk over independent expertise or dissent.

8. Organizing the Tesla Takedown Movement

[28:40]

• The protest movement is decentralized and grassroots, starting online (mostly Blue Sky) with local, organic gatherings.
• Ed sees himself as someone illuminating the company’s vulnerabilities, not a central organizer.
• Protesters come from diverse backgrounds and motivations, unified by wanting to disrupt Musk’s “empire.”
• Quote:

  "It's up to people to use whatever tactics they want to sort of capitalize on that opportunity... people who are not otherwise political protesting kind of people suddenly want to find ways to get involved."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [29:30]

9. Is SpaceX Really a “Business”?

[30:20]

• SpaceX isn’t publicly traded, rarely profitable, and relies on constant fundraising.
• Much of its launch business is propped up by launching its own Starlink satellites, a cycle that doesn’t signal sustainable, market-driven demand.

10. Signs Protest Is Working

[32:33] [35:24]

• European Tesla sales are plunging; U.S. awaits clear Q1 data.
• Protesters report strong support from Tesla drivers, with resellers hesitant due to falling values.
• Growth of protests and ever-larger, more diverse crowds suggest surging momentum.

11. Protests' Effect on Tesla’s Narrative and Valuation

[37:44]

• Protests alone aren’t the sole driver, but compound existing negative business trends and investor doubts.
• Tesla’s stock has always been a “momentum play,” so perception shifts can become self-fulfilling.
• Quote:

  "When the valuation is so dependent on momentum, the reversal of these trends is everything. The hedge funds are absolutely paying attention to each one of these trends. And as they build up, at some point they're just going to accept this thing has reversed."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [38:52]

12. Addressing Violence and Decentralization

[42:05]

• Recent vandalism/arson incidents are not connected to organized protests, which remain peaceful.
• The movement remains decentralized, but some organizing infrastructure is developing.
• Violence reflects powerlessness in electoral politics—not the aims or methods of protest leadership.
• Quote:

  "The psychology could not be more different from those who are going out and doing violence. And I do disavow the violence. I don't think it's effective, but I think it's worth noting. What we haven't seen is any protest turn violent."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [42:23]

13. Can Tesla (or Musk) Recover?

[44:09] [45:55]

• Success for the protest isn’t a stock number but breaking the financial and political feedback loop, e.g., forcing Musk into margin calls.
• Unlike Ford or VW, Tesla’s board remains fully controlled by Musk; any decoupling or sale looks unlikely unless the company is at the brink.
• Quote:

  "The whole company is as much... It's Elon's meme coin is really what, what Tesla stock is in so many ways... I just don't see how he gets out."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [46:11]

Most Memorable Quotes

• "As nice as it is to think that Tesla is this, you know, beautiful, wonderful thing that, that we've all wanted to believe it is for so long, that, that the underlying reality is, is quite different."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [05:42]

• "Protests are amplifying trends already moving in the wrong direction."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [11:11]

• "What’s being sold is not technologically plausible at all... We know what works, okay? And we know that it’s been eight years since they promised that this software is the software update away. And we know that that hasn’t worked out. It’s not technologically possible."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [23:53]

• "I would be terrified if I were Elam [Musk]."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [35:20]

• "The real question is, is the US going to be... down by 10% due to competition, or is this going to be 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90% in some European markets that we're seeing?"
  — Ed Niedermeyer [32:55]

• "The goal? I'd love to see Elon get margin calls, get forced to sell, and then he has to sell off all of his empire at fire sale prices to get himself out of this cash crunch. That's the goal."
  — Ed Niedermeyer [45:12]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:12] – Introduction & context: protests and Tesla’s deteriorating public image
• [05:00] – Tesla’s myth vs. reality
• [07:10] – Auto industry economics and Tesla’s failed “platform” aspirations
• [10:26] – Linking protest effectiveness to business fundamentals
• [14:41] – Exploding and collapsing Tesla demand
• [20:13] – Tesla’s shifting political demographic and strategic missteps
• [23:50] – The reality of Tesla’s Full Self Driving and automation ambitions
• [26:29] – Who is running Tesla now?
• [28:40] – Origins and organization of the Tesla Takedown movement
• [30:20] – The reality behind SpaceX’s business
• [32:33] – Are the protests shifting sales and sentiment?
• [35:24] – Protesters’ vibe and public support
• [37:44] – The interplay between protest, narrative, and Tesla’s valuation
• [42:05] – Addressing violence; distinction between protest and vandalism
• [44:09] – What does protest “success” look like?
• [45:55] – Can Tesla ever recover its reputation?

Tone & Language

The conversation is frank, incisive, and slightly irreverent—mirroring Ed Niedermeyer’s direct style and The Verge’s critical, tech-savvy audience. The mood shifts between business analysis, political commentary, and protest movement energy.

For Further Listening

• Insight into EV adoption cycles and hype
• Analysis of Silicon Valley overpromise trends
• Deep dives into Tesla’s financial disclosures and regulatory pressures

Conclusion

This episode offers a rich, unflinching look at the forces converging on Tesla as both a brand and a business. With Ed Niedermeyer's expertise, listeners get an inside view of the rapidly shifting narrative around Tesla, why ordinary protest might have extraordinary impact now, and how the fate of an automaker became a proxy battle for technology, hype, and democracy itself.