Podcast Summary: "Ørsted’s Andy Brown: 'We should think in centuries.'"

Podcast: Der Große Neustart
Host: Sibylle Barden
Guest: Andy Brown (President, Energy Institute; Vice Chairman, Ørsted)
Date: December 10, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode features Andy Brown, a transformative leader in the global energy sector, discussing the state of the world’s energy system, the challenges and opportunities in the shift to renewables, and the leadership qualities required to navigate systemic transition. From dissecting global data trends to sharing personal stories of change and resilience, the conversation centers on how to power society sustainably—not just for decades, but for centuries to come.

Main Discussion Points and Insights

1. State of the Global Energy System

[02:12 – 04:00]

• Global energy demand increased nearly 2%—the highest across all sources since 2006.
• Fossil fuel consumption is still rising, leading to a 1% increase in CO₂ emissions.
• Decarbonizing electricity, full electrification, and tackling hard-to-abate sectors are vital.
• Renewables grew by 16%—9x the rate of total energy growth in Europe.
• The three biggest electricity sources: nuclear, hydro, and wind (with gas fourth).
• Electrification increased 4.2%, mainly due to air conditioners and data centers, less so via EVs and heat pumps.
• China leads:
  • 6.4% electricity growth (equal to Germany’s entire grid)
  • 57% of new global renewables and 2/3 of global EV sales
  • New demand mostly met by low-carbon sources.

Quote:

“We haven't made a transition yet, we're in addition. But there are some really strong signs.”
— Andy Brown [04:00]

2. Why Decarbonize Electricity?

[04:08 – 04:55]

• Only 20% of end-use energy is electricity; decarbonizing it is necessary but not sufficient.
• The ultimate aim: a world that is “very electrified” and powered by green electricity.

Quote:

“If you are going to imagine a zero carbon world, it's a world that is very electrified... Electricity is only twenty percent of final energy use today."
— Andy Brown [04:20]

3. China’s Double-Edged Role

[05:19 – 06:58]

• China’s scale is vast—generates as much electricity as the US and Europe combined, but with lower GDP.
• China is both the largest CO₂ emitter (mostly coal-dependent) and the world’s green tech engine—leading in solar, batteries, rare earths, and renewable deployment.
• China is at an inflection point: its CO₂ emissions are set to peak and soon decline.

Quote:

“China is just on the verge now of peaking and then starting to decline on its CO₂ emissions. That is really big news.”
— Andy Brown [06:44]

4. Trends in Renewables and New Demands

[07:03 – 09:06]

• Solar is the “star” with 28% growth last year—outpacing wind and spreading into the developing world.
• AI/data centers: project to require up to 10% of US electricity by 2035, but globally only 3-4%. Air conditioning demand will likely surpass data centers, especially in hot and developing countries.

Quote:

“The growth of air conditioners could well be taking more electricity from the system than data centers.”
— Andy Brown [07:55]

• Rising affluence and global warming drive soaring air conditioner adoption:
  • Indonesia: 15% of households have ACs today; forecasted 50% by 2035.

Quote:

“The whole issue of very hot cities, of fatalities due to excessive heat becomes a bigger and bigger problem. And the one solution... is to put a machine on it, which is an air conditioner.”
— Andy Brown [09:38]

5. Political and Economic Headwinds

[10:26 – 15:24]

• Recent years: political will and market forces have weakened—especially in the US and capital markets, which now prioritize returns over transition.
• Shift in investor attitudes:
  • In 2021, companies couldn’t attract capital without transition plans.
  • Now, markets ask energy companies to focus on profits.
  • Shell and BP have retreated from renewables.
• Infrastructure transition costs are staggering:
  • Need $4-5 trillion per year (currently $2 trillion/year on green energy).
  • Grid investments must double to keep pace with new generation.
  • Political challenge: balancing cost, competitiveness, and transition pace.

Quote:

“It's how you can get through this one off infrastructure transition change and still keep that political will to transition the economy to a new energy system.”
— Andy Brown [13:33]

6. Ørsted: Case Study in Transformation

[15:24 – 19:02]

• Ørsted transitioned from coal-intensive energy company to global renewables giant:
  • Sold off oil & gas, rebranded (from DONG).
  • Led in offshore wind; capitalized on rapidly falling costs, low interest rates, government backing.
  • By end-2020, Ørsted's market cap eclipsed BP's.
  • Offshore wind now roughly cost-competitive with wholesale electricity prices—subsidies mostly phased out.

Quote:

“It's a great story of a company taking the right choice for the environment, but also picking up an investment cycle that was extraordinarily strong.”
— Andy Brown [18:19]

• Leadership required “bold but not reckless” decision-making, deep sector understanding, and the ability to manage risk.

Quote:

“It's about going in with your eyes open but making sure you're better than anyone else.”
— Andy Brown [19:41]

7. Managing Complexity and Crisis

[20:49 – 23:50]

• Project risk increased after 2023: Ørsted had to terminate Ocean Wind 1 due to cost inflation and regulatory complexity, leading to a massive $4B write-off.
• Management pivot: introduced tighter stage-gate controls, supply chain vigilance, “green light” policies before commitments.

Quote:

“If you don't do that and the project becomes non-executable, it's very, very expensive to extract yourself.”
— Andy Brown [22:45]

8. Role of Government and Market Frameworks

[23:50 – 27:35]

• Public-private support is critical, especially for capital-intensive industries with long revenue streams (e.g., offshore wind projects with >35-year timelines).
• Stability via contracts for difference (CFDs), like the UK’s 15-year fixed-price model, is vital for bankability.
• Regulatory uncertainty, especially “flip-flopping” (e.g., UK government cancelling CCS support at the last minute), is highly detrimental.

9. Carbon Capture and the Promise of Negative Emissions

[27:35 – 33:43]

• IPCC estimates require up to 10 billion tons of CO₂ removal annually by 2050—realistically unlikely at current pace.
• Ørsted’s bioenergy and CCS initiative in Denmark: captures emissions from biomass plants, liquefies and ships CO₂ to Norway for injection (Northern Lights project)—creating “negative CO₂” electricity.
• Projects depend on government and private buyers (e.g., Microsoft), and require high carbon prices (€150-200/ton).

Quote:

“Without a global CO₂ price, it's going to be hard to see the amount of CCS that we need.”
— Andy Brown [29:32]

10. Leadership, Purpose, and People

[33:52 – 46:23]

• Purpose- and mission-driven companies are more resilient, attract better talent, and outperform profit-first firms.
• Enabling culture is crucial: “Changing culture is much more difficult than changing strategy.”
• In Shell’s Pearl GTL mega-project (over 54,000 workers at peak), joint culture around care and safety led to historic achievements in quality and productivity.
• Developing talent and empowerment is a core leadership legacy.
  • Example: Helping Wael Sawan (Shell’s CEO) unlock his own potential.

Quote:

“The most important thing you leave behind is people are developing the talent... for that company to be stronger when you leave it than when you arrive.”
— Andy Brown [43:29]

11. The Leadership Skillset for Transformation

[46:23 – 49:26]

• Core: skill transfer between sectors, empowerment, clarity of vision, and a sense of purpose—especially in sustainability.
• Cautions against binary thinking (“fossil fuel execs can’t lead new energy” is a fallacy).
• Changing direction (“transitioning back to fossil fuels”) is easy on paper but wrenching for employees invested in a greener mission.

Quote:

“Changing strategy is easy; changing people’s sense of purpose is much harder.”
— Andy Brown [47:45]

12. Personal Compass and Motivation

[50:56 – 52:44]

• Andy is driven by impact—on talent, on the transition, on future generations—not financial targets.
• Views energy as the “lifeblood” of prosperity; strives to help retool global energy for centuries, not just decades.

Quote:

“It's going to be essential that we create a sustainable energy system and everyone thinks in decades. And I think we should think in centuries about what this looks like.”
— Andy Brown [55:50 and again, bookending the conversation]

13. Personal Footnotes: Life, Resilience, Family

[52:44 – 55:41]

• Lived in 8 countries, 4 children born in 4 countries, credits his wife for supporting his career and global mobility.
• Survived major heart surgery (5 bypasses), a result of stress, which led to new perspective and humility.
• Recounts support from colleagues, stresses balancing work and life, and the grounding effect of family and health.

14. Looking Forward: The Need for Global Consensus and Urgency

[55:41 – END]

• Humanity must retool energy for the long term (centuries).
• Without restored global consensus on urgent climate action, we'll exceed 2°C warming—significant change likely only when crises become unavoidable for the majority.
• Optimistic on the ingredients (“renewables in abundance”), but calls for a collective “acceleration” and a joined-up effort akin to the Paris Agreement.

Quote:

“We all need to do what we can... But I think we do need to see change happen. I'm concerned that change will only happen when it becomes so desperate for people. There are no other alternatives.”
— Andy Brown [58:29]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

1. On systemic thinking:

   “We should think in centuries about what this looks like.”
   — Andy Brown [00:00 and 55:50]

2. On transformation:

   “We haven't made a transition yet, we're in addition. But there are some really strong signs.”
   — Andy Brown [04:00]

3. On leadership and complexity:

   “Go in with your eyes open, but make sure you're better than anyone else... when the world wants a commodity like offshore wind and you’re better, you will lead.”
   — Andy Brown [19:41]

4. On personal impact:

   “Can I have an impact... can I help talent? My impact in the moment is, how can I help drive an energy transition?”
   — Andy Brown [51:06]

5. On risk and resilience:

   “Flip-flopping of government support is so damaging… it cost us a lot of money and… wasted effort.”
   — Andy Brown [32:52]

Key Timestamps

• 02:12 — Global energy trends and data breakdown
• 04:20 — Decarbonizing electricity: Why it’s primary
• 06:44 — China’s emissions at a turning point
• 07:46 — AI/data centers vs. air conditioning: electricity demand
• 10:26 — Political and economic headwinds (markets, policy)
• 15:24 — Ørsted’s transition: case study and leadership
• 20:49 — Managing complexity: Ocean Wind 1 write-off
• 27:35 — Carbon capture’s uncertain future
• 33:52 — Purpose-driven teams and company culture
• 43:14 — Developing talent: the legacy of mentorship
• 49:26 — Leadership in times of uncertainty
• 51:06 — Andy’s personal compass
• 55:50 — “Think in centuries”—final macro perspective
• 58:29 — Urgence and consensus for climate action

Conclusion

Andy Brown’s interview serves as both diagnosis and prescription: global energy systems are at a pivotal moment, with promising trends but historic obstacles in culture, markets, and politics. The story of Ørsted showcases what's possible, but also the fragility of progress in the face of uncertainty. Above all, Brown champions a purpose- and people-driven approach: resilient leadership, systemic vision, global collaboration, and, ultimately, thinking not just in decades, but in centuries.

For deeper engagement and actionable ideas, listeners are encouraged to reflect on Brown’s century-scale proposition and the urgent call for both individual and collective acceleration.