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Alex Monahan: What if placing 8,000 bets a year wasn’t reckless—but calculated? | DSH #1437
00:59:35
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- [00:00]
A
It's all crazy, right? So like NBA, NFL, they gotta be rigged. But from a better's perspective, I don't really care because if you're not in on the rigging, like it's 50, 50 to be for you against you. Last year I think I placed 8,000 total bets. So like maybe some are ranked against me, some for me. I have some good beats.
- [00:27]
B
Okay, guys, got Alex from Odds Jam here. We're going to talk about the sports betting and gambling space. Thanks for coming on today, man.
- [00:33]
A
Of course. I'm pumped.
- [00:35]
B
Yeah, you've got a lot of experience in this space. You know, you built and sold the company. How long have you been in this space for?
- [00:41]
A
I guess it depends how you categorize gambling. Like I started my career in trading. I was a poker player for a bit before, like more recreational. But odds Jam, I guess we started in April of 2021.
- [00:55]
B
Oh, it's pretty recent.
- [00:56]
A
Yeah, yeah, we were acquired three and a half years later. So pretty recent, like in the industry, but had been following it for a while for sure.
- [01:05]
B
Three and a half years to get acquired. I feel like that is rapid for most companies, right?
- [01:09]
A
Really quick. Yeah. I mean, yeah, it didn't feel that short during some parts of the company, but yeah, it did happen pretty, pretty fast.
- [01:20]
B
For those that don't know what odd Jam is, could you briefly explain what that company does?
- [01:26]
A
Yeah. So we're basically like a Bloomberg terminal for sports betting. That's kind of the way I think about it. Like, you know, when sports betting legalized in the US I was living in Pennsylvania, which I think was the second state, like Pennsylvania, New Jersey border. I think it was the second state to legalize online sports betting. And you know, like at the time I was a trader and I was super used to like seeing data. Right. Like every single day. What does everybody have in on Wall Street? A Bloomberg terminal. So like when I started sports betting, I would say there wasn't that. There wasn't a lot of good content. It's a lot of guys being like, oh, Lakers money line, you know, That's a lock. LeBron James, whatever. There was a lot of content like that. A lot of people selling picks, a lot of handicappers as they're called. But there wasn't really like a data tool and with hundreds of sports books, points bet, FanDuel, I mean such a long list. Do you bet on sports?
- [02:23]
B
I don't. I had a little stint in college where I did FanDuel and I got.
- [02:27]
A
Wrecked and having best I was going to say you're missing out. But now there's hundreds of books. All these new markets, like player props used to not be super popular. Like, now people love betting on triple doubles, points, rebounds, steals. Like, you can bet on anything, right? There's even sites like prediction markets where you can bet on the weather. You can bet like, you can literally bet on anything nowadays.
- [02:48]
B
Wow. You could bet on the weather.
- [02:49]
A
Is Elon gonna block Trump? You could, you could bet on that on certain sites, which is crazy. So, like, the point is, is there's a lot more data than just who's winning this game. Lakers or Thunder or whatever. Pacers or thunder. Probably. Probably a little bit better to say so. Yeah. We kind of set out to build like a Bloomberg terminal for sports bettors and also like an API. So we have other businesses, big bet trackers, stuff like that. Media companies who insert widgets into articles kind of based off our data. So it's very different. Like, so a lot of people will be like, oh, you sell picks, right? And it's like, I mean, I personally, I like to gamble. I like to bet on sports, so I bet on bets for sure. But like, we're not a picks company. Yeah. Know what I mean? We're like the data company.
- [03:38]
B
How many profitable sports bettors have you ever met in your life?
- [03:41]
A
Honestly? A lot.
- [03:43]
B
Really?
- [03:43]
A
A lot. Yeah.
- [03:46]
B
That's a shocking answer.
- [03:47]
A
That, that, that, that is. I mean, I would say most people lose, right? But it's a fact that sports betting is like one of probably the only forms of gambling where you can win long term, right? Roulette. There's no professional roulette players. Anyone who says they are is like lying, right? Like red or black. That's. That's not a thing. Every time you play roulette, you're just basically losing 5% of your money. So it's crazy to me when, you know, I'm sitting at the wind right now. People are throwing down $1,000 on roulette. It's like you're basically just burning 50 bucks, right? Every hand you play sports betting, you can absolutely win. You can absolutely get an edge. Most people don't. I'm not saying it's easy. It takes a lot of time, but you can, like, you've had Elf on the show. Who, who actually is how we got connected. Who? You know, he. He like watched a lot of my content. He's a user of Odds Jam. Kind of started doing it as a side hustle. Right. I mean, I'm sure he elaborated more on, on his podcast. But now he's doing all these crazy things and content. Making a ton of money, sports betting, you know, using odds jam, you know, crushing it, meeting girls, doing all these crazy things. So definitely. Even Golden Tate. You know Golden Tate, Football player, I heard of him. NFL player, Super Bowl.
- [05:01]
B
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- [07:06]
A
Am so.
- [07:06]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [07:07]
A
Super smart dude, super sharp, super data oriented, super mathematical now and you know, you're tired from the NFL, a Super bowl, had a great career. Yeah. And he, he's like a user of the product, crushing the books, making a lot of money. So like, there's a lot of people who, again, it's not easy. Most people are really lazy. So probably like building a podcast, right? Like, like anything great in life. Like it, it, it, it's not super easy, but you can make money gambling. Yeah, right. It's like proven there's very simple strategies. And honestly, like the strategies that make money, sports betting, they're not even that complicated. I think, you know, probably other guests have talked about this, but like, sports betting is kind of a rigged game. If you go into a casino, they determine your max bet size. So like you take, you know, FanDuel Sportsbook, Vandal Sportsbook, you sign up, you have a new account, they'll let you bet a certain amount of money, right. This isn't the stock market. It's not super liquid. You can't bet a billion dollars. You know, Gilgis Alexander steals, but you can get some money down. And then they either do two things, right? If they start to think you're winning better, sharp better, they cut you down. Lower, lower, lower your bet size. If you're losing better, they increase it. They make you a vip. They send you to games like, so really there's no way to win forever or make a scalable amount of money. Which is why, like, you don't see really like hedge funds, right. Betting on sports or it's not a big thing because, you know, the markets are, it's not big enough. You know, I think most people can scrape by if you really put in the work and you understand the strategies you can make similar to elf well into the six figures, but making a million dollars a year, sports betting, 2 million. Like BS and I'm sure, you know, there's a lot of touts, I would say on the Internet who make it seem easy. Vegas Dave Mozzie versus who are like, you know, I went in CAESARS, I bet 250 grand on the Bengals to cover. They covered, you know, I'm him. Like, that's, that's not like, like that's why the industry gets, you know, a bad rep. You know, nobody can bet 250k. If you have a pulse in general on any sportsbook in the US Right. Like online sportsbook that's not a thing. So. Yeah, but you can definitely make money, right? It's one of the rare, rare few forms of gambling, I would say, where you can really actually make money and like make a meaningful amount of money and there's, you know, there's a reason the company was bought for 160 million. It's like the data is valuable and, you know, people make money with the product.
- [09:49]
B
Have you ever seen someone legit that sold pics though?
- [09:53]
A
For sure.
- [09:54]
B
Really?
- [09:54]
A
For sure, for sure. But not most of them. I, I mean, just being in the industry, I have met handicappers who quite literally have told me to my face almost on a. I'm honestly almost bragging about it, saying I just pick randomly every single NBA game and then all I do is. So that's 0% of my day is researching, studying, looking at odds, learning about strategies. It's all marketing, all marketing. It's all, you know, if you can get the Instagram reels to blow up, your discord is going to get more people in it. So are there cappers who are good? For sure, but usually the, the nerdy dudes who spend all their time betting and researching lines. You know, it doesn't really go hand in hand with like having a massive Instagram following or being an expert in marketing.
- [10:43]
B
I'd imagine AI is going to help with that research process for most people. Right?
- [10:46]
A
Yeah, I mean AI is going to, AI is going to be crazy to see definitely the future, but right now it's like not good with real time data. So I've played around with it a lot and we use it to, I use it to simplify my workday and also like parts of the company and coding even it helps make easier like all sorts of things. But it's not good with real time data. Like if you ask it what are the odds on, you know, this game and a player's injured, it's not going to be like up to date. So definitely AI is going to transform sports betting. Probably the least interesting industry it will transform.
- [11:26]
B
But yeah, yeah, I use it every day. But I, I know people are saying it's going to replace day traders and like sports betters. I don't know when that's going to happen. Maybe down the road.
- [11:36]
A
Definitely could. I mean, I feel like when I was trading people, you know, like trading firms have been growing. Technology makes it easier but like they're still trading firms, like still a very good job, well paid, they're growing a lot of them. But dude, I don't know What AI is going to do, it'll for sure be crazy. But yeah, personally in sports betting right now, I don't think it's particularly useful.
- [12:04]
B
How many casinos are you limited from right now?
- [12:11]
A
Most, I would say because you're considered a sharp.
- [12:13]
B
Right.
- [12:13]
A
Yeah. In some ways. And some books I would say limit more aggressively than others. So some books will be like three bucks. Right. Like you're basically done. So what you'll see a lot of people do like I would say the hustlers, the elfs of the world, the you know, previous guest he had on. And you know, certain people are more entrepreneurial. Again, it goes back to like not being lazy. Like certain people will sign up their friends, their mom, cut deals with them so they can like keep getting action down. But other books don't limit that aggressively kind of payment for information. Like they're willing to take a little bit of sharp action so they can improve pricing and you know, maximize profits. Even better off squares, dumb sports betters. So I would say it's kind of like some books are more aggressive than others.
- [13:02]
B
Yeah.
- [13:03]
A
In terms of limits. And it also depends on the betting market, all sorts of stuff like that, you know, you're going to be able to get more money down on the NBA finals compared to, you know, Korean baseball player props, you know. Yeah.
- [13:18]
B
Have you bet on anything weird like that Korean baseball or ping pong or anything?
- [13:21]
A
Dude, absolutely.
- [13:22]
B
Really?
- [13:22]
A
Absolutely. All sorts of weird stuff. Especially during COVID man, I was going to say UFC was definitely the most fun. Like when I still had my full time job. I was, I was telling you before the podcast, like literally ran into Volkanovsky, did not recognize him, I was pretty sure like on the golf cart to the Wynn golf lounge. And I just like. But I loved betting on the ufc. I guess that's the point. Yeah, like knockouts, betting on a dude to get knocked out. I mean there were fights I would be talking to my friend who like was also a trader and, and we bet a lot and we'd be like we made more money betting on this dude to get knocked out. Then he got for showing up and getting knocked out. Like I loved ufc. Just like, you know, that's where the.
- [14:09]
B
The sports betting market is at though. Like the betters, there's more volume there than the actual athletes are getting paid now.
- [14:15]
A
Okay, yeah, not, not maybe for, you know, just Alexander, but yeah, for, for some, for sure.
- [14:21]
B
I'd say for the average salary player, for sure. Like the average NBA salary is, I don't know what it Maybe not NBA actually, but NFL, I feel like. For sure.
- [14:30]
A
Yeah, it definitely depends. And it depends on the sports better. Like, I'd say anybody who claims they can make $1 million a year sports betting easily is questionable just because of limits. Right. And I'm talking about, like, doing this repeated repeatedly and like, in a way that is actually reasonable. It's like, sure, maybe could you convince a casino to let you bet 1.1 mil, just play it on the Super bowl, win $1 million. But I'm talking about, like, if you were betting every single day, like, trying to get an edge.
- [15:01]
B
I hope you guys are enjoying the show. Please don't forget to like and subscribe. It helps the show a lot with the algorithm. Thank you.
- [15:08]
A
Yeah, maybe online sports books like the Fanduels Prize Picks, DraftKings of the world, limit faster to limit more aggressively compared to in person physical like you have in Vegas. But I don't know. I haven't spent enough time here.
- [15:23]
B
Maybe someday you'll see. Do you trust. Yeah. Do you trust the online crypto casinos or. No.
- [15:30]
A
Overall, yeah. I mean, a lot of people will say, oh, they're gonna like, steal me out of my 2k if I end up winning. But like, I mean, realistically, depending on the one. Right. But like, most of these. A lot of these books have built up reputations over 30 years. So, you know, like, I wouldn't feel too worried with like 20k in the account and betting that and expecting them to pay it out personally. But to be fair, like, I definitely think there's people who, who get screwed over. Like, there's big talk right now about some guy won like A$10 to win a million par. Like something crazy.
- [16:10]
B
Damn.
- [16:11]
A
Something crazy like that. Like that may not BE Exactly. Or 100,000, whatever, but he gave it out. And I don't know, like, apparently he didn't get paid out by FanDuel, whatever. But that's very rare. I mean, I feel like books in general, if they have a gross error, like, let's say they list, you know, Patrick Mahomes to win MVP next year, the sports book glitches out. It's plus a million, right? You can bet like a dollar to turn it into tens of. Like, obviously the book is going to void that bet. They'd go out of business otherwise if enough people see it in time and it's a clear error. So, I mean, there are. I mean, I don't want to sound like I'm siding with the sports books, but, like, you know, there are times it's like, okay, like, this book's not going to go out of business because they had a glitch that, like, a very few informed amount of customers took advantage of. But I mean, in general, like, sketchy things happen in sports betting, for sure. People not getting paid out books, you know, But I would say, overall, I feel safe personally with my money in it. In basically any sports book.
- [17:15]
B
Yeah. Because I'll see viral videos of, like, someone trying to cash out at the casino at Caesars or whatever, and they won't do it. But you also don't know the context.
- [17:21]
A
Yeah.
- [17:21]
B
What happened before.
- [17:22]
A
A lot of times it's like they're not letting you do it because, like, you haven't uploaded your id and they need that. It's not always malicious. I mean, obviously for social media, people maybe like to make it seem that way or people flip out, like, oh, my gosh, I can't get my money out. And it's like, dude, they, like, tell you they need your Social Security, like, the last four of your social to hit the withdrawal button because for, like, whatever tax reasons. So, like, a lot of times it's not malicious and it's just people not doing instructions.
- [17:53]
B
Vegas, they fought a whole case about that.
- [17:55]
A
Yeah.
- [17:55]
B
Federal case years ago.
- [17:57]
A
You had him on.
- [17:58]
B
He's been on. But, yeah, he got in trouble because he tried to cash out and he didn't want to provide his ID or something. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [18:07]
A
I mean, exactly. Stuff like that, like, it happens to me all the time. Some books definitely make it hard. It's like, to put money in easy.
- [18:15]
B
Yeah.
- [18:15]
A
You want to put in ten grand, they'll take your money. Withdrawing. We need a bank statement. We need, you know, proof of address. We need a picture of your id. We need you to go here. Some books are brutal with that, but again, I'm no expert in. I have no idea what regulations are required of them to verify identity, so.
- [18:37]
B
I don't know, they might tighten up after what happened with Ohtani and Resorts World too.
- [18:41]
A
Yeah. Yeah. Ohtani definitely gambled. I did. I love watching Ohtani. I love going to Dodgers games, but I. I definitely think he did.
- [18:52]
B
Why are you so convinced?
- [18:53]
A
I mean, I just don't think you can, like, casually. I mean, Ohtani is not Jeff Bezos, so, like, I don't think you can, like, casually lose track of that much money. I mean, it would be shocking. It was like, even now, I think his salary is. I may be an idiot. Right. This may be wrong, but I think It's. He's paid $1 million a year, but then he gets a lump sum of like 690. It's not like this guy is a liquid billion in his checking account.
- [19:21]
B
He deferred it contract.
- [19:23]
A
So I don't know, the whole thing sketchy.
- [19:28]
B
It makes you question if one of the top athletes is betting, how many of the like lesser known athletes are betting?
- [19:35]
A
Yeah, and I've talked to athletes because we have some who use odds jam again. I talked to Golden Tate again. It's like a lot of guys get, it's just most aren't stupid, right? Like John Tay Porter, you know, telling people to bet his own unders. There's like perfect evidence of it. It's like, I mean, you know, most people aren't that stupid. The murders are only solved at a 50% rate. So I can't even imagine for illegally betting the rate they're actually able to catch people. But again, I kind of said this before, like if games are rigged, if players are rigging themselves to bet the over the under, you know, it happens. I, I, I'm 100% certain it happens. Mainly because of college player props. There's the, there are the, these new peer to peer sites. So essentially they don't have limits. You can bet however much money you want, but you'll see somebody come in to a peer to peer site, okay, and try to bet 30k on some random dude, right? Like we're not talking about Cooper flag, right? We're talking about a random player. They'll try to bet like 30k on him to go over or under. It's like, you know, if that much liquidity is entering a very small market, it's like, okay, like I feel like this is his roommate at his frat house, right, who like knows he actually has a sprained leg and is probably going to be on reduced minutes. Like, you know, there's things like that that are happening. I'm 100% positive. I mean, I know, right? Like, I mean I used to live next to athletes when I was in college and like, I mean, I don't know, like, especially if you're very close with them, it's probably pretty easy to pick up things. 100% inside information that's not priced into the market baked into the odds the same way. Like, you know, if you're really good friends with Jeff Bezos, maybe you could get some inside info on Amazon insider trade. But I don't even know if there's regulation for that in sports betting. Like if you live with a dude who's a star running back and, you know, he's injured. I don't think there's regulations for you can't bet on him to go under for as much money as you want.
- [21:44]
B
Yeah, I think it has to be their direct family or something.
- [21:46]
A
Yeah. I mean, again, I'm not 100% positive, but it definitely happens. John Tay Porter's crazy. Tim Donahue is crazy. It's all crazy, right? So like, NBA, NFL, they got to be rigged. But from a better perspective, I don't really care because if you're not in on the rigging, like, it's 50, 50 to be for you. Against you. Last year, I think I placed 8,000 total bets. So, like, maybe some are rigged against me, some for me. I have some good beats, lucky wins some bad beats, like, kind of averages out.
- [22:20]
B
Yeah.
- [22:21]
A
And that's the perspective I have.
- [22:22]
B
Yeah. Yeah. It's interesting because it could be rigged on the player level and the ref level.
- [22:26]
A
Yeah.
- [22:27]
B
Are there ref bets? Like, how many fouls?
- [22:31]
A
Maybe, Maybe on a prediction market. Have you heard of, like, Kalshi Poly Market?
- [22:35]
B
They sponsor the Pod Kalshee.
- [22:37]
A
Really? Yeah, it's my ex girlfriend's company.
- [22:39]
B
Oh, really? Yeah, a girl started Kalshi.
- [22:42]
A
Co founder. Yeah.
- [22:43]
B
Holy crap. That's, like, shocking, because I just assumed, I guess it's a little sexist, but, like, a male would start a sports betting company.
- [22:49]
A
Well, it was. Yeah, it was. Yeah. Two people. But we do a little work with them now, so, you know. But yeah, like, probably. I mean, if you can bet on Elon blocking Trump after all the whatever. Like, I don't even know what you'd call political.
- [23:06]
B
Who knows if that was real, too.
- [23:07]
A
Yeah, exactly.
- [23:07]
B
I've heard some wild theories that that was planned.
- [23:09]
A
Yeah, exactly. So.
- [23:13]
B
You never know if you're just in the numbers. You don't really care, right?
- [23:17]
A
Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think, like, even when we sold odds Jam, like, first day, it's like you get the money. I just pushed it all, like, immediately into the market.
- [23:28]
B
Like, all of it. You didn't save any?
- [23:31]
A
Not really. I mean, I actually got this advice when I was at SIG when I was. When I was working as a trader, Susquehanna, which is a great job, by the way. I literally took it.
- [23:43]
B
You.
- [23:43]
A
You. There's like, big articles about it. It. It's a trading firm, and they teach you poker. Like, part of your great job where you're paid absurdly well is, you know, you got to play poker.
- [23:53]
B
Really?
- [23:54]
A
Yeah, because they believe it, like, helps you and you would get fired if you were crappy, really, if you made a decision, they would. They would test you after every hand. Why did you do this? Why did you do this? And if you were just like, oh, I don't know, bro, like, I just wanted to bluff, you'd get fired.
- [24:08]
B
Wow.
- [24:08]
A
Like, it was ruthless. But they want to see your decision making. Why did you decide to bet? Why did you decide to bet that this much? Why? The same. The same reason with trading, they can't have their quant traders being like, I don't know, man. I just felt like buying Facebook and, like, whatever, you know, like, it's like, everything. Very analytical, logical, data driven. I don't really know where I was getting with that, but I think just like, that's where I learned sports betting. That's where people taught me sports betting. You know, a lot of really smart people. And I think very similarly. I just got the advice initially, like, take your income, put 80 into tech stocks, put 20% into crypto. And, like, I mean, crypto's up like a thousand percent more since I started.
- [24:52]
B
Hello, Ron.
- [24:53]
A
Yeah, so that was actually the seed capital for.
- [24:56]
B
For. For. For.
- [24:57]
A
For odds. Jam was probably Ethereum's run up. Now it's gone down, but I think.
- [25:01]
B
It went up, hit 4k.
- [25:03]
A
Yeah, it went like 200 to 4k. I think I got the 20x and then sold some Start odds. Jam.
- [25:09]
B
Nice.
- [25:10]
A
I think, like, yeah, like, you can pump the market one. Like, I don't know. It's like. And I think the day I put a ton of money into the market, like, it went down. Yeah, 1%, 2%, whatever. But it's like, whatever. Like, now it's back up. Like, it's random. Who cares? Like, over the course of the long run, like, it's better to invest your money as opposed to be sitting in cash.
- [25:31]
B
Way better.
- [25:32]
A
So I don't really think about it. Right. I don't know if the market's up today or down, because I don't care. Like, I think you just make money. You put 80% into equities, 20% into crypto. Maybe if you're old, put some in treasuries, but, like, it's hard to go wrong with that. It's just like. And then you just leave it and you don't think and you don't be a freak about, like, the same way, really. When I was sports betting, like, when I was still working at sig, like, I would go to bed with 20k bet fresh out of college, you know, didn't have A ton of money. But, like, knew my bets had an edge and just wake up the next day and check. But didn't. A lot of it is building up that even at Sig, they encouraged you to, like, flip a coin with your peers for, like, $2,000. And they knew it was a lot of money to us, like, fresh out of college, everyone's broke. I mean, you're starting to make money, but because it, like, builds up your tolerance to variance, like, over the course of the long run, it's a coin. It's 50, 50. You're not going to make money, you're not going to lose money. But you learn to. If it shows up tails two times in a row, you're not like, oh, crying, right? Like, you build up the, like, logic that, like, okay, like, you know, it's fine.
- [26:43]
B
What an interesting company culture. That sounds like a very Company, very fun place to work for, actually.
- [26:47]
A
Sick company. Yeah, it was really hard to quit, for sure.
- [26:50]
B
Was that the toughest decision you've had to make?
- [26:52]
A
Yeah, at the time, it really was, because I really liked my job. I mean, you're paid a lot of money, got to play poker. It's sick. Like, if the Eagles win the super bowl, they, like, gave you 5K. Or the Phillies, like, it's a very great company culture. Was only working, like, 40 hours a week. So I loved it. And you're gam. Like, as a trader, you are gambling other people's money. That is what you are doing as a quant trader, right? Like, you are getting paid a very good salary to gamble other people's money. The founders, the partners, whatever, depending on the firm.
- [27:26]
B
So you consider a gambling. Not calculated investment gambling, really?
- [27:30]
A
I would say it's gambling the same way. I think, like, Phil Ivey, Daniel N. You. Is that where you pronounce his name? But, like, they're gamblers. They're just gamblers with an edge. You can call them investors. But then I feel like you start to sound a little stupid. I think the difference in some ways between gambling and. And investing is like, I think of gambling, like, trading day trading, being more active. Like, you are, like, you are trading in and out of things, right? Whereas investing, like, maybe you put your money in a, you know, 401k and, like, leave it. Like, I don't consider that really gambling, but I think, like, poker, right? Quick hits are gambling. And you can be a negative edge gambler or a positive edge gambler. At sig, they are market makers. So, like, they just, you know, we set prices right? Like a dollar bid 120 offer. Right. You can, you can sell it to me for a dollar or you can buy it from me for 120. Just liquidity providers bid ask spread type thing similar to a sportsbook. Right? Sportsbooks, you can bet on either team, you know, Thunder or Pacers. And like they just charge the vague. They just charge a spread around fair value. It's the same thing as a trader. So you're essentially a sportsbook. And yeah, I mean I think it's like 99.9% of retail traders who trade against SIG lose long term Robinhood accounts. We absolutely kill them. They can't beat the badass spread. Stock market, impossible to beat options. You're going to get killed, basically. I mean again, it's 99.9%.
- [29:00]
B
What if you just.
- [29:01]
A
999%. Right, but that's investing. That's not.
- [29:04]
B
Oh God, you're talking about day trading.
- [29:06]
A
Yeah, I'm talking about the people who try to flip in and out of calls and think they're options. That's 90. I literally think the stats of what percentage of Robinhood like brokerage are beat. It's like over 99.9 long term by market makers. You're getting killed. Markets are too efficient. There's no opportunity. Sports betting on the other hand, you have hundreds of books all setting their own lines. Markets very inefficient. They have. It's kind of weird because I know I talked about limits which are a bad thing. If you're a sports better, you want to be able to bet as much as you want always. So you don't have to create new accounts and sign up friends and family like a lot of these guys end up doing. Um, but like obviously if books couldn't limit people or discriminate based on how smart a customer is, there would be no opportunity. They would sharpen up overnight because they can't get killed by really smart people like Elf. If Elf could bet $10,000 a bet, he would, but he probably can't most places. So it's kind of like if there weren't limits, then there would also be no opportunity. The same way the stock market. There's equal opportunity for all, but there's really not. You're at such a big data tech disadvantage if you're not a trading firm. 99.9 something percent of people lose money trading against market makers long term. And again, that's very different from investing. But I'm not talking about like buying bitcoin and holding it or the S&P 500 or QS or, you know, whatever. I'm talking about like the degenerates who wake up on a Tuesday morning and try to, you know, trade call options in and out of positions on United Airlines. It's like we were making. I mean, you make disgusting money off those people.
- [30:50]
B
It's like a dream client for you guys.
- [30:53]
A
Yeah, but liquidity providers. Yeah, that's what market makers do. And I learned a lot about gambling because essentially, as a market maker, you're the sportsbook. You're charging spreads, you're adjusting lines, adjusting prices. That's line movement, you know, in sports betting. So you like the. I would say sports betting and trading are the exact same thing. Right. And. And you're seeing the intersection with companies like Kalshi and like Poly Market, where it's trading. All right. You can bet on, like, a lot of people think of sports betting as completely different, but it's not. And companies like Calshi, where it is much more trading focused, kind of highlight that.
- [31:35]
B
I feel like you could get an insane edge on some of the bets on Kalshi. Like, because I'm in. I have on politicians and stuff and I know they have a politics tab. Like, I just feel like you could get crazy edges on that, you know, probably.
- [31:46]
A
I mean, I think.
- [31:48]
B
I'm not trying to shut all your asses company or anything. No, no, no.
- [31:51]
A
Abs absolute. Well, that's very different. I mean, Kalshi, I wouldn't call. Most of these markets don't have that much liquidity if you're betting on Elon to unblock or block his Twitter. If you put down $5,000, you could move the line by, you know, whatever. You can't get that much action down. It's not trading in and out of Apple stock where you could buy 50 million right now and the price may not even move by a cent. So, yeah, I mean, there's gotta be huge edges on these platforms. I mean, in hindsight, not to get political, but I think, obviously in hindsight, I think it was really obvious Trump.
- [32:28]
B
Was going to win and he was underdog at first.
- [32:30]
A
Yeah, you could have gotten him at like +130. It's like, I mean, there's that huge article of the French whale who did the neighbor survey. You read that?
- [32:39]
B
No. What happened?
- [32:40]
A
This guy basically was like, people, because Trump is very controversial, people won't tell you what they're going to vote for, but they'll tell you if you ask them, hey, who do you think your neighbor's voting for or who do you think your friends are voting for? People would be like Trump at a much higher proportion. So basically, like, whatever. He figured that out, figured out Trump was going to win every swing state with very high confidence and he ended up making 60 million. He's the one. He's the one who drove the line movement towards Trump.
- [33:08]
B
I think I saw an article about him.
- [33:10]
A
So, I mean, in hindsight it's like, damn. Like I'm sitting here like, betting on sports and, you know, grinding out edges and running this company. Like, all I had to do was do the obvious and. Exactly. It's always obvious in hindsight. But I mean, yeah.
- [33:28]
B
Did you bet on the NBA playoffs this. This season?
- [33:31]
A
Yeah, I went to a couple of the games. I went to a lot of the NBA playoff games, actually. A lot of fun. And I bet on them.
- [33:39]
B
You bet on every single one?
- [33:42]
A
No, I was actually on the Pacers the last game.
- [33:44]
B
Damn, if Holly Barn didn't get injured, they might have had a shot.
- [33:49]
A
I know, obviously. Really? No, I got the shorts on right now. Can't see them, I guess, but yeah, no affiliation to the team, but I thought they were fun.
- [33:59]
B
I was rooting for them because of C Bless. Did you see that, that parlor? Oh, 125k.
- [34:04]
A
Crazy madness, dude. But I mean, it was a great NBA Finals.
- [34:10]
B
Like, yeah, seven games.
- [34:13]
A
I mean, it's good for us. The longer the series goes, more basketball, it's. It's good for the industry, period.
- [34:19]
B
Because baseball, I mean, too many games, right?
- [34:22]
A
Nobody really cares about baseball.
- [34:23]
B
Is the liquidity in baseball, Is there enough?
- [34:25]
A
Yeah, there's enough. It's just like, I mean, nobody really cares.
- [34:30]
B
Even the players don't care compared to.
- [34:32]
A
Yeah, even the players don't care. Ohtani. But like, I think it's just like in compared to betting interest of the MLB versus the NFL, like just content. Everything. Betting volume, it drops drastically on every sports book. Yeah.
- [34:48]
B
What's. What sport gets the most action? Is it soccer? Is it soccer? Football? I guess NFL.
- [34:54]
A
I mean, I'm a big Commanders fan. Shout out to my boy, Jaden Daniels, Washington Commanders. I'm a big NFL fan, but also like sports betting in NFL definitely gets the most betting volume. But then, then NBA, then probably baseball, then NHL.
- [35:12]
B
Like maybe soccer's not even up or.
- [35:14]
A
Actually, what am I saying? College football. Well, if we're talking about us, soccer volume is not high.
- [35:19]
B
Oh, okay.
- [35:20]
A
It's internationally. Yeah, exactly. But I think as a sports better you just like, dude, I don't. I mean I do love my teams, but also like you, much more are invested with your money. Like, I would literally be so excited for a guy to get knocked out who I had, you know, nothing against. Yeah, I mean, that used to be my Saturday night routine is like doordash, chick fil a bet 15k on the UFC and you know, get a six pack of Coronas and just like watch the fights.
- [35:50]
B
You've come a long way.
- [35:52]
A
It was great. But that, you know, I started out sports betting with arbitrage, got into kind of got bored, started taking more risk with betting that's called positive ev betting and super accessible Again, a lot of time. Most people are very lazy. They get limited on a sports book. They're like, this isn't worth my time. But then you have the guys like Alf who hustle and, you know, end up making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year with odd jam or you know, just another whatever, like data. Like you can do this manually. It just kind of takes more time.
- [36:23]
B
And you have all the data on your customers, so you actually see how much they're making. Right? Yeah, that's. That's pretty fascinating.
- [36:29]
A
Yeah, we. Yeah, exactly. People always think it's too good to be true. I mean, people always be like, I hit one bet off odds jam and it lost. And it's like, yeah, but like, dude, you're missing the point. Like, we are not a handicapper. We are the Bloomberg terminal. If you don't think data is important in the 21st century, like, like it's like, I don't know how to help you.
- [36:50]
B
That's why companies get bought. It's for data.
- [36:52]
A
Yeah, exactly. I mean, we had a lot of customers and also a lot of good data and a lot of tech. And like, obviously our customers think it's valuable and you know, we have low churn and people pay us and they pay us for a long time. But like, I mean, it's like, yeah, I think so many people, it just doesn't click right the same way. Like, there's a difference between a Bloomberg terminal and joining a discord where they tell you buy Facebook now, pay me $200 a month. Like, it's very different. So, you know, you need a Bloomberg terminal to even compete the same way. I feel like you need access to data or at least access to a certain level of knowledge and understanding of how sportsbooks set odds, lines, prices, adjust prices to even consider gambling. It's just most people, I mean, they're lazy, right? There's a reason, like guys like Mozzie versus who are like, yo, I'm 50. And oh, it's like most unrealistic shit I've ever heard. It's like, yeah, man, I'm 50. You know, on my last, like, you know, 50 bets and it's like, dude, like, I think I saw Vegas. Dave at one point said he had a perfect MLB season. It's like, that's like statistically impossible, bro. Like, but you know, people, people like easy, nobody likes grinding. And the guys who crush it are grinders like Elf who make six figure sports betting. They're not lazy. They see the power. Like the power of sports betting is really daily compounding. And by that I mean, like, if you can get a 1% profit margin, right? Similar to being a day trader, if you could have a 1% profit margin on your day trades and you could do 10 trades a day, right, that's 10%. So. And it's kind of the same thing in sports betting is if you can make $20 risk free on an arbitrage bet. Arbitrage, like the main strategy that people like to use on odds jam. It's like when two books have such different odds, you can like trade it really quickly. You got to move fast in and out of the discrepancies to guarantee a profit. And long story short, like, the power of that is like you get the money back that night. You hit five arbitrage bets for $20. That's a hundred dollars, that's $3,000 a month risk free. And that's like what appealed to me, you know, is when I started sports betting in it and it legalized and some people I worked with were doing it and telling me about it is like, holy moly, I can go home, right? Like, sure. People will say, start a business, right? Like you can start a business and make a hundred dollars a night. And it's like, well, most businesses are never profitable. And also, I just graduated college and like, no, I don't want a boss. No, I don't want employees. Like, I just want something I can flip on my computer and do and make money from. And that's arbitrage, right? You hit 10 arbitrage bets a day for $10. Don't be fucking lazy. It's a hundred dollars a day, $3,000 a month. And like, that's what appealed to me. And that's how you get hooked on it. And then you're like, what other gambling strategies? The same way. I'm sure Elf talked about all these weird edges he's doing and ways he's making money because once you get hooked then are like, damn, I can beat these books. Make $100 a day risk free, super easy. It's like, how else can I make money? And that's where things get interesting with all sorts of stuff. But yeah, sports betting market crazy.
- [40:01]
B
Let's dive into some of those stories. You probably heard some crazy industry stories, crazy gambling stories. What's. What comes to mind for you when you hear that?
- [40:10]
A
Yeah, I would say in terms of crazy industry stories, I mean the one making waves right now is this dude who won the huge parlay and Vandu hasn't paid him or his Discord subscribers. There's stuff like that. Like dude, I mean, I don't know in terms of sportsbooks just like being dumb. I remember when they initially launched and they partnered with colleges, dude, like points bet paid University of Colorado Boulder, I think $2 million to market it to students which like, you have to know this is a PR disaster in the making. I know for a fact I get messages from college kids who live with college football players. You can now bet on college props who know inside information and tell you. I've even heard inside NFL information and just not acted on it. People DM me on Twitter like, yo man, like I'm actually like a trainer for this, you know, whatever. And like this happened. Like there's definitely crazy things like that. Sports betting is a crazy industry. There's a lot of money to make. Which is why, you know, it was a hard decision to quit my job. But like, yeah, I mean, I don't know. I remember, I forget where I heard it. I think it was from my co founder but it's like you don't get a lot of shots in a game. Like if you're Connor McDavid and you're the Oilers and you're competing in the Stanley cup, right. You don't get 50 chances to score, bro. Like you get a few. So I think sports betting being new, really knowing sports betting, really knowing gambling, trading, being young, a little more hip to social media maybe and marketing compared to like 50 year old men. It's like, okay, like there's not many 24 year olds. I was at the time trying to start companies but like, or start a law firm. But like crypto sports betting, like there are things that are young men.
- [42:02]
B
Yeah.
- [42:02]
A
You know, young woman, crypto for sure. Young games. Right. You don't see many 80 year old men, you know, doing the next big thing in crypto. I could be wrong and respectful.
- [42:11]
B
You're not Wrong. I was at bitcoin conference last month. It was all young, young cats.
- [42:14]
A
I mean, even sports betting. So. So definitely not the case in sports betting. So I kind of thought like, damn, this good shot and we'll make some money. I was getting limited on sportsbook, so I was like, gambling is actually the better I've gotten and the more knowledgeable, the less money I'm making because of these limits, I don't really feel like, you know, contacting 45 of my friends to keep getting accounts and keep betting through them. Like, this seems complicated and like you could do it easily and I could have made it how to, how to be a great side hustle. But I was like, well, pretty easy. If you can just like create a product, there's no good tools, there's no good data, there's no good content. This industry, so stupid. It gets so many idiots and scammers in it. If you can do something halfway decent, you can probably grow the crap out of it. So I just thought it was like, yeah, this probably, probably a good shot. And I was spending, yeah, I mean, yeah, I was spending a ton of time sports betting, researching sports betting. Like it definitely, especially during COVID when there's nothing to do, like, it can definitely consume your life, right? Gambling is fun. It's super fun. Super fun. So it's definitely a thrill. So. Yeah, I don't even remember the initial question.
- [43:32]
B
I don't know either. I was invested in your story though. Parlay. P baby. You do any parlays?
- [43:37]
A
Huh?
- [43:38]
B
You do any parlay bets or you.
- [43:39]
A
Think I do parlays? The math behind parlay is pretty simple. Okay? They got a horrible rep. Most people, okay, 97% of people lose money. Sports betting, a parlay is just a combination of bets. So let's say the average sports better loses about 5%, which I think is accurate. 5 to 10% on a single bet. On a straight bet for a two like parlay that goes, it doubles, right? They're going to lose about 10%. So that's why parlays for dumb betters, right? Like you get killed because every leg you add, you're compounding the juice. But you can also do the opposite if you're better with an edge. A plus ev parlay, you know, if two bets are plus ev profitable, then you know it's going to be plus ev and a parlay. It's not like a parlay fundamentally changes the odds or the math behind sportsbooks and just makes you lose. All it does is increase variance. It's all parlay does. So I bet on parlays because they're fun and people like them when I'm, you know, I'll do live streams from time to time and stuff like that where I share my bets. But yeah, I mean I do do them. They're fun for sure.
- [44:52]
B
Any crazy parlays you hit?
- [44:53]
A
Yeah, I hit for 60k last year on Judge and Ohtani.
- [44:57]
B
Nice.
- [44:57]
A
Only off of. Because I was limited on the book. I could only get down like a few K spread across different bets, but they were mispricing Ohtani and Judge to go yard. I thought there was like a 20% edge. Like I did a video about it, I talked about it on stream. So I was like, screw it. I'm betting my max 4,000 bucks. They're probably not going to go yard. I was actually in LA at the time and I remember just like being on the phone after Judge went yard and Otani was up. I think it was like the eighth inning. And like I knew too because I promoted the crap out of it after Judge went yard that like a lot of people had tailed it. So that ended up hitting. And you can find the clip. Jake Paul made a video that's like, you know, Alex, congrats. But whoever mispriced this, I'm going to fire him.
- [45:44]
B
Better.
- [45:44]
A
Yeah, exactly. So Jake Paul made a video. I got the shout out from him. So that was pretty cool because I gained like probably like 10k Twitter followers.
- [45:52]
B
Yeah, I thought Better was an interesting, interesting move for Jake Paul, actually.
- [45:57]
A
Smart. I mean the thing is, is most sports betters are really dumb. I assume the profit margin of his book, given that it's. You can, you can't even do straight picks. You need multiple picks in an entry. I assume his average profit margin per wager, given what I know about the industry, is probably for that type of product, 15, 20%.
- [46:15]
B
Wow.
- [46:16]
A
Pretty easy.
- [46:16]
B
So if you get 10 million in bet sizing, you're getting 15% of that. That's a money printer.
- [46:22]
A
It's a money printer.
- [46:23]
B
So is that there are.
- [46:26]
A
I mean, I can't. Yeah, I mean I think if it were known how much some of these gambling companies were making, a lot of people would be shocked.
- [46:35]
B
Well, stakes numbers have been partially revealed. Those guys are printing.
- [46:40]
A
I mean there's a reason Drake will make full videos about it for God know. I don't know what he has of the company. 1%, 2%. But yeah, a lot of money. A lot.
- [46:50]
B
Wow.
- [46:50]
A
A lot, a lot of money. A lot of stupid sports Betters Would.
- [46:54]
B
You ever go down that route in the future, starting your own?
- [46:57]
A
There's so many different types of sports books at this point. There are sweepstakes books. There's fantasy sites that you know are like better picks where they're similar, but they're not sports books in the eyes of the law. There's peer to peer sites, betting exchanges, there's prediction markets. I'm not completely morally opposed to it, you know, doing like, I think an exchange. It's like peer to peer, I mean, but obviously no plans at all. But I do, I do, I do. I disrespect people who like do those things. No, I mean, I mean it is a form of entertainment. Like I think we all agree in Vegas, like it's a fun city to be in. And I totally get the appeal of yeah, I want to gamble with my friends and play poker and I probably don't have an edge. I'm probably not going to make money. I'm probably not plus ev. But like, I don't give a shit. I'm going to have fun. I'm going to get free drinks. Like life's good.
- [47:55]
B
Yeah.
- [47:55]
A
So I mean. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, right.
- [48:01]
B
I'm pretty similar. I used to have an issue with it, but then I thought about it more and I'm like, the casino is providing a lot more than just gambling.
- [48:06]
A
Totally.
- [48:07]
B
They're providing like restaurants and atmosphere drinks.
- [48:10]
A
Totally.
- [48:11]
B
I saw.
- [48:11]
A
I paid thousands of dollars for sports tickets. Sometimes it's like, I mean, you know, like people can spend. I mean, I think the problem is very similar to alcohol. Right. Like, or anything in life. Like some people can't control it. Junk food. Right. Like you get the people who become alcoholics and ruin their lives and whatever. And it's horrible. But should we ban alcohol? And it's like, I do think it's the same thing in gambling. You have the people who. It's like, dude, you are clearly a losing sports better. All you're doing is depositing money. Like in now you're going to take out your daughter's college fund and now you're going to get a hit piece about gambling in the New York Times, you dumb ass. Like, I don't think that means fanduel is evil. It doesn't. It means this guy like has a problem. And like people have problems with everything. Do you know how many people lose money day trading? Nobody talks about that. You know how many people get smoked trying to day trade crypto.
- [49:08]
B
Oh, wrecked.
- [49:09]
A
Wrecked. Trying to. Trying to do the next, you know, Wall street bets, like, dude, like market makers. These trading firms are printing money. Nobody cares. But, like, you know, same thing. I guess in some ways with sportsbooks, like, there's some people who just. They don't learn. Like, there's certain people who just like. I mean, it sounds horrible to say, and I guess it's just having an addiction, but it's not an addiction where you, like, grow. It's not like, oh, I'm losing. Maybe I should, like, understand why. No, it's just like, I need to double down on Thunder minus eight and a half. And it's like, how is that the way your brain works?
- [49:43]
B
Yeah.
- [49:45]
A
The same way I think, like, when I see these clowns, like, Vegas day being like, I'm 82 and oh, it's like, who is falling for that? But, like, people do.
- [49:53]
B
Vegas Dave, I will say, has made a lot of money.
- [49:56]
A
I.
- [49:57]
B
Not off.
- [49:58]
A
I'm 100% confident that he makes money selling picks A ton.
- [50:03]
B
Like, way more than I thought.
- [50:05]
A
Yes, I 100% believe you. However, I do think that I do have a bit of a problem with. Because I think it's just. You lie.
- [50:18]
B
That's why I asked you, like, how many of these guys that sell pics are legit? Because at a certain level, when you're selling that many picks, aren't you going to move the market? When you're. When there's that many people in your community betting on that pick, aren't you going to move the lines?
- [50:32]
A
Dude, you can if you look. Because I bought picks for a bunch of these discords, it'll just be half Thunder, plus or minus nine and a half, half pacers plus nine and a half. Just people picking random out of. Out of a barrel. Like there's nothing going on. So, like, it probably somewhat balances out. But I mean, the thing is, is none of this is informed action. So none of the accounts that are paying for Mozzie versus picks even have a pulse. FanDuel will probably take their action all day long. Right. Just true. So I don't know how much line movement it actually leads to because they're not sharp. These aren't smart dudes betting into markets. I mean, again, and you know, I respect the ability to market, but I do think it's largely the acting. Like, it's easy and you can. It's just, it's.
- [51:26]
B
I love good marketing. I don't like lying. Like, when you're lying about the record, I have a problem with that.
- [51:31]
A
Yeah, exactly. Like, exactly.
- [51:34]
B
But if you're in, like, marketing and flexing and totally being honest with the numbers. I don't care.
- [51:39]
A
Yeah. I don't even care about, like, yeah, market your wins. Like, nobody's stupid. Like, you should market, you know, when you hit big or on a big streak. But I think, like, the, like, yeah, man, I'm just like 82 and, oh, I never lose. It's like, that's like, yeah, that's like. I mean, it's unfortunate, but there's. There's people who just don't have that, who don't have any distrust in society, who are just like, oh, my God, All I need to do.
- [52:04]
B
Yeah.
- [52:05]
A
Is buy Vegas Dave's picks for $1,000 a day and, like, put money on them. I mean, there's also touting services. Have you heard of those?
- [52:14]
B
What is up?
- [52:15]
A
It is when it's very simple. And they will sell email lists back and forth between each other. You have, let's say, you know, an email list of a million people. Like odds jam. Million people, right? You have 500,000 people. You send thunder 500,000 pacer spread. One of them's gonna win, one of them's gonna lose. They're equal and opposite outcomes. The 500,000 that you won, you send them another bet. I'm gonna give you another free pick next game over or under, split them up 250. Now you have someone who you've convinced 250,000. You've hit both in a row. You just send them the other 750,000. You sell that email list to another tout. 250,000. Yo, I know the future with sports. Buy my picks. $1,000 a day. They think you're a genius because you won the last two. That is huge business here. Huge. You have no idea. No idea. But syndicates, I mean, the Sharper Betters, I mean, they're a big deal, too. We have a lot of syndicates who pay for odds jam data fees.
- [53:16]
B
What's a syndicate like?
- [53:18]
A
I guess like a collective group of betters hammering lines at the same time is probably the simplest way.
- [53:24]
B
Got it.
- [53:25]
A
Probably the simplest way. I'd say that. But yeah, limits suck. I really think to long term make a ton of money sports betting, you need constant funnel of new accounts. And you could pretty easily make the easiest $200,000 of your life and a few hours a day betting while games are going on. If you can just get some new accounts. But I don't think that's discouragement for people not to sign up. Every single one of my Friends, if they come to Virginia for a week, I can make them easily $10,000 just doing the sportsbook signup bonuses. Because most of these books, sports books, know the average customer loses $2,000 a year off of us.
- [54:02]
B
Wow.
- [54:02]
A
So most of them run like, pretty lucrative deposit matches. Some are only. You put in a hundred, you get a hundred for free. Some are bigger. But, like, if you did every sports book in a mathematically optimal way, I gave a YouTube video breaking it down. But like, if you traveled to every state, which I used to do, you can make 18 grand. When sports betting legalized in Colorado, Sports Illustrated launched SI Sportsbook and they had a $7,500 risk free bet. Your first bet, you lose, you get your money back up to 7.5k.
- [54:36]
B
Wow.
- [54:36]
A
So what you could do is just bet thunder on Sports Illustrated. You could hedge on a different book. I literally flew to Colorado for a weekend, paid for the entire trip, plus some. Because if you go through the math behind like hedging that it's worth 5K, like, it's crazy. And that's only one sportsbook in Colorado. So, like, there's real money you can make, you know? Even my sister, like just signed up, helped her sign up for sportsbooks, made her a quick five grand. She bought fucking Bottega Veneta bag something, something like that, like the new Gucci, apparently. But like, it's like, is she ever going to bet on sports again? No. She pro sports better?
- [55:15]
B
No.
- [55:15]
A
But is she up 5k on sportsbooks and is that sick? Like, yeah.
- [55:19]
B
Wow. Yeah. That's awesome, man. Anything else you want to close off with here? Where can people sign up for Odds Jam and learn more about you?
- [55:25]
A
Also, I'm on Twitter Alex Monahan. I'm on YouTube. Odds Jam, Alex Monahan. I'm trying to think what we didn't talk about, man. We talked about Odds Jam. Yeah. We have some sick customers. Golden Tate Elf, I know you've had on. You should get Golden Tate on.
- [55:42]
B
Love to get him on.
- [55:46]
A
Yeah, Honestly, not much else. I think this was great. I had a lot of fun.
- [55:51]
B
And we'll do a part two, bro. That was awesome. That was great. Thanks for hopping on. We'll link everything below. Check them out, guys next time.