Avoid These Costly Poker Mistakes: Insider Tips | Phil Galfond DSH #786

Summary

Digital Social Hour Episode Summary

Title: Avoid These Costly Poker Mistakes: Insider Tips | Phil Galfond DSH #786
Host: Sean Kelly
Guest: Phil Galfond
Release Date: October 6, 2024

---

Introduction

In this episode of Digital Social Hour, Sean Kelly welcomes renowned poker professional Phil Galfond to discuss the intricacies of poker strategy, common mistakes to avoid, and insights into the high-stakes poker world. The conversation delves into the balance of skill and luck in tournaments, the ethics of buying action, experiences with poker scandals, and Galfond's personal journey in the poker landscape.

---

High Roller vs. Low Roller Tournaments

Phil Galfond begins by addressing the perceived difference in skill between high roller and low roller tournaments. He clarifies that the distinction isn't solely about the buy-in amount but significantly about the field size.

Phil Galfond [00:04]: "It's not about the buy-in so much as it's about the field size. When you play in a tournament with 40 people, the long run doesn't take as long."

Galfond explains that smaller fields lead to quicker results, making luck a more substantial factor in determining profitability. In contrast, larger tournaments with thousands of players require sustained performance over time but offer more consistent returns for skilled players.

---

Poker Luck vs. Skill

The discussion emphasizes the role of luck in individual tournaments versus skill's impact over the long term. Galfond humorously estimates that big tournaments are "96% luck" and notes that while skill does contribute, especially for professionals, luck dominates in the short run.

Phil Galfond [01:05]: "It's like almost all luck. There's a little element of skill, and then over time, that little element of skill shows itself in the long run where pros win over time."

He uses the example of Daniel Negrona, a player who experienced a decade-long drought before winning another bracelet, illustrating how luck can overshadow skill in specific instances.

---

Buying Action in Poker

Sean and Phil explore the concept of buying action in tournaments, where players invest in another's tournament entry in exchange for a percentage of the winnings. Galfond shares his experiences and ethical considerations regarding this practice.

Phil Galfond [05:25]: "But also, like, in my career, I've never done that. I've just like sold the extra pieces to friends."

He discusses how buying action can be a strategic way to manage bankrolls and mitigate risks, especially in high-stakes environments. However, Galfond points out that transparency is limited, and the poker community relies heavily on self-policing to maintain ethical standards.

---

Cheating and Ethics in Poker

The conversation shifts to the topic of cheating in poker, acknowledging its presence but stressing that most players compete fairly. Galfond recounts historical cheating scandals, such as the Ultimate Bet incident, and recent vulnerabilities exploited in online platforms like GG Poker.

Phil Galfond [10:58]: "There's a lot of luck involved, but also people have good days and bad days."

He emphasizes the importance of secure platforms and vigilant oversight to minimize cheating, noting that while major sites have robust security, high-stakes games remain vulnerable to sophisticated exploits.

---

Online vs. Live Poker

Galfond expresses a preference for online poker over live games, citing his introverted nature and the uninterrupted flow of online play as key reasons.

Phil Galfond [11:33]: "There's something about poker where, like poker for me, I just absolutely love it and I love diving into the problem-solving of it."

He highlights the increased speed and multitabling capabilities online, which contrast with the slower, more socially demanding live games. Galfond also discusses the evolving landscape of online poker, especially post-Black Friday, and how platforms like YouTube and Twitch have revitalized the poker community.

---

Phil Galfond's Poker Career and Matches

Phil shares anecdotes from his poker career, including high-stakes games at casinos like Aria and his experiences in both tournaments and cash games. He recounts his journey in Pot Limit Omaha (PLO), his specialty, and his challenges in adapting to different poker formats.

Phil Galfond [28:16]: "In tournaments, stacks change all the time. You're always having to adjust the way that you play."

He also details his infamous "Galphin Challenge," a series of heads-up matches where he overcame significant early losses to ultimately secure victories, demonstrating resilience and strategic adaptation.

---

Coaching and Future Plans

Transitioning from active play, Galfond discusses his passion for coaching and mentoring upcoming poker players. He emphasizes the importance of not just teaching strategies but also addressing the holistic aspects of maintaining a professional poker career, such as mental health and productivity.

Phil Galfond [36:00]: "I've really fallen in love with it. So I've long taught. I've been a poker coach, like, through training videos for about 15 years."

Galfond highlights his focus on helping players manage the psychological and lifestyle challenges of professional poker, leveraging his extensive experience to guide others toward sustainable success.

---

Conclusion

Sean Kelly wraps up the episode by thanking Phil Galfond for his valuable insights into the poker world. Galfond remains active in the community through various platforms and continues to influence both seasoned players and newcomers with his expertise and commitment to the game's integrity.

Phil Galfond [46:00]: "Probably the best place is Twitter or X. [...] Phil Galfond and on YouTube as well at Phil Galfond and Instagram. Phil Galfond and philgalfond.com for the newsletter."

---

Notable Quotes

• Phil Galfond [00:04]: "It's not about the buy-in so much as it's about the field size."
• Phil Galfond [01:05]: "It's like almost all luck. There's a little element of skill..."
• Phil Galfond [05:25]: "I've just like sold the extra pieces to friends."
• Phil Galfond [11:33]: "I just absolutely love it and I love diving into the problem-solving of it."

---

Where to Follow Phil Galfond

Stay updated with Phil Galfond’s latest endeavors and insights:

• Twitter/X: @PhilGalfond
• YouTube: Phil Galfond
• Instagram: Phil Galfond
• Website: philgalfond.com

---

This episode offers a comprehensive exploration of the strategic and psychological facets of poker, enriched by Phil Galfond's extensive experience and candid reflections. Whether you're a seasoned player or new to the game, Galfond's insights provide valuable lessons on navigating the complexities of high-stakes poker.

Transcript

[Unknown Host]

Would you say there's more skill, though, in the high roller tournaments than low tournaments?

[Phil Galfond]

In a sense there is, but it's not about the buy in so much as it's about the field size. When you play in a tournament with 40 people, the long run doesn't take as long. So if you don't get first, second, third or fourth, you're. You're not making money. And that takes a lot of luck to get there.

[Unknown Host]

All right, guys, got a poker pro here, Phil Galfon. Thanks for coming on, man.

[Phil Galfond]

My pleasure.

[Unknown Host]

Thanks for having me during the main event, too. So I appreciate it.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, no problem.

[Unknown Host]

Day one went well.

[Phil Galfond]

Day one went really well. Yeah. I mean, but, you know, it's a really long tournament. I try to not get excited about it till day four.

[Unknown Host]

Right.

[Phil Galfond]

Because at this point, you know, 10,000 people or so play, and it's just like, if you're good, you have a lottery ticket to like, you know, one out of 2,000, and if you're average, it's one out of 10,000. But it's just you. It's such a long grind. And, you know, any individual tournament is so much luck that I try not to get, you know, emotions tied up in it. I. I try not to get too attached.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah, you were saying off camera, 96% luck for these big tournaments.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, I mean, I made that number up. But that's like any, any individual tournament that you play is like almost all luck. There's a little element of skill, and then over time, that little element of skill, you know, shows itself in the long run where, where pros win over time. But especially as a tournament pro, which I've never been, you can go a long time without winning.

[Unknown Host]

Wow. And we just saw it with Negrona, right? Ten years.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. I mean, so he managed, he just came back and won like a really awesome bracelet. I think it's his seventh after, you know, winning six, you know, but way back, he's continued to win in tournaments, win money in tournaments, most years. And he actually is one of the only people I know of that posts his results publicly at the end of each year. But he'd had that drought in the World Series of Poker. Um, and I mean, I think that's the perfect example of somebody who's a great player, who's continuing to show that he's a great player because he's winning overall. But, but in World Series of Poker tournaments, even though he plays a lot of them each year, he, he didn't want one for. He didn't Win one for a decade. Um, and that's just. Yeah, like luck. Luck plays a big, big role.

[Unknown Host]

Would you say there's more skill though in the high roller tournaments than low tournaments?

[Phil Galfond]

So in a sense there is because. But it's not about the buy in so much as it's about the field size. So when you play in a tournament with 40 people, the long run doesn't take as long because it's not as much of a crapshoot. The money's not all like, like when you play, let's say a 3,000 person tournament, all the money is in the top like four spots. So if you don't get first, second, third or fourth, you're, you're, you're not making money. And that takes a lot of luck to get there. But when you play a 40 person tournament, yeah, all the money's still in, you know, the top four spots, but you get there much more often. And so the long run doesn't take as long.

[Unknown Host]

Okay. I just assume because the people are better if they could afford the higher buy ins.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, well, they're definitely better and they're. It, it's a, it's a tougher field to play in by quite a bit. But you know, in, in the, like, in the, in the huge tournaments, a pro's edge can be really high. So you'll look at it like there are two, two stats that you track as a tournament player, again, which I'm not. But one is ITM percentage in the money percentage and the other is roi. So return on investment. And so. And in like a high roller tournament, somebody's ROI over a long period of time. I mean people are guessing their ROIs, but it's going to be, you know, they're making, you know, maybe 10%. So 110%, you know, a year. No, no, no. So like an individual tournament. So let's say they buy in for 200k.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah.

[Phil Galfond]

And they're one of the better players in the field. On average, they'll win 20k.

[Unknown Host]

Okay.

[Phil Galfond]

But, but the, the average takes a long time to hit.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah.

[Phil Galfond]

In a, in a big tournament like the main event, I mean, people think that, people speculate that you can have, you know, 300, 400% ROI. I remember I was, I was sitting in a cash game, high stakes cash game at aria. This was 15 years ago or so, and I, I believe it was J.C. tran. And I forget the other player he was talking to, but he was trying to back this other player for the main event. And the other player was Asking the table like, is this a good deal? He was, he was giving him 70%, which means I'm going to give you 10k and you get to keep 70% of the winnings. I'm only going to keep 30%, which means, like, I think you're a huge, huge favorite to make that a profitable investment for me. And I was just like, yeah, you have to take that. That's, that's too good. And then JC took 10k out of a stack and pushed it towards me and like, I could afford to play in the main event. This is a big, a big bigger cash game. But I was just like, yeah, that's too good. So I took it. So one year I was backed in the main event because, because it just happened in a cash game and he was offering a really good deal. But that shows you how much of an edge people think that, that a great player can have in the main.

[Unknown Host]

How'd you do?

[Phil Galfond]

I didn't cash.

[Unknown Host]

Oh, I see. Was he pissed?

[Phil Galfond]

No, no.

[Unknown Host]

They're used to losing, I bet.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. And I mean, when you, like part of being a poker player, even if you don't back other players, a lot of times you'll, you'll take pieces of each other. So in tournaments you'll often have like, people swap 1% or 2% in these high roller tournaments or like in a big field tournament, like 5%, so.

[Unknown Host]

Oh, really?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. And so, and also, you know, people play in games, whether it's cash games or tournaments, and it's just like a little bit too big for their bankroll and they're trying to be responsible.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah.

[Phil Galfond]

And so one thing they can do is sell money or, sorry, sell a percentage of their action at a markup.

[Unknown Host]

I've seen that.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. But also, like, in my career, I've never done that. I've just like, sold the extra pieces to friends. And then when they play something that's a little too big for them, they sell me it back at face value. And what I always say, like, sometimes when I buy action from somebody, they'll come back and say, like, sorry, I lost. Come on. And sometimes they'll say, sorry, like I, I blew this. Like, I made this mistake. And I always say every poker player makes mistakes all the time. And if I'm investing in you, I'm investing in the fact that I believe you'll make fewer mistakes than other people, but it's not because I don't think you'll make mistakes. I'm investing in, in the good and the bad.

[Unknown Host]

Right.

[Phil Galfond]

And so people in poker who have done enough of that understand that not only is there a lot of luck involved, but people have good days and bad days, good hands and bad hands.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. I didn't know you could buy people's action in the same tournament as you.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Kind of spread your money out.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, you can spread your money out. It happens a lot. There's like a, so there's a, Sometimes people, especially in the high rollers, because there's kind of smaller fields, there are people who watch, who complain about it because they think it's like unethical. And if you were swapping like 40% in a 40 person tournament, I know that that would be. Because there are spots that would come up where it's just like, you would be incentivized to collude.

[Unknown Host]

Right. You could fold a good hand.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, yeah. But at 2%, at 3%, at 5%.

[Unknown Host]

Just, you're not gonna run into them.

[Phil Galfond]

It just, well, like you, you might run into them in a small person field, but if you've swapped 3%, it just kind of doesn't matter. It doesn't change the way you play. So it doesn't give other players an unfair disadvantage.

[Unknown Host]

That makes sense. Yeah. It's not like you're back in their whole.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Bankroll. Because that probably wouldn't be allowed, right?

[Phil Galfond]

No, I mean, there are no rules against it because you don't need to disclose it.

[Unknown Host]

Oh, wow.

[Phil Galfond]

There's no, there's no way anybody would know unless you want them to. So there are no technical rules against it. But, you know, the poker community does a lot of self play, policing and calling out.

[Unknown Host]

I noticed.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

People that do that.

[Phil Galfond]

Yes.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. Doug Polk, man.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. There's drama. Yeah, there's drama. You know, every, every month there's a new. I know, a new drama bomb.

[Unknown Host]

I was upset with the Tom Dwan one because I grew up in Jersey, where, where he grew up, and I was like one of my favorite players.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, no, I mean Tom, like, early on, he was one of my best friends in poker.

[Unknown Host]

Oh, wow.

[Phil Galfond]

He, he taught me a lot, especially when I moved from no Limit hold him to plo. And like he had been playing it for a few years. I, I, I didn't know anything. And it was actually, he's, he's a very generous person. And I just remember I had known him for like six months because we ran in the same circle of poker friends, but I didn't really know him that well. And he, he was telling me I should get into plo. And I was like, well, you know, I don't know the first thing about it. He's like, oh, just watch me play. And then he, like, I sat down next to him as he played for six hours. And that's something that, you know, someone of that stature like to just give that away without thinking about it is, is really kind.

[Unknown Host]

Right, right. That's interesting. So you got to know him personally.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Were you shocked when all that stuff came out or.

[Phil Galfond]

I, I mean, you hear things when you're part of the poker circles and there are, people have different side of the story. There was like the, the one, there were a few different things, but I think like two people involved in the drama or you know, Peter Jetton and Harolobus. And I'm friends with both of them too. So like, it was all, I was sad to see it was friends fighting. Yeah. But yeah, I don't know, it's, I feel confident like Tom and I don't hang out as much as we used to, but I just like, I got to know him so, so well back then. I'm confident that, that he's, he's a good person who means well. And I think sometimes like what it sounded like happened, he can be like, he can be aloof and so he can lose track of things. He can also like, think that it's gonna, think that some things are gonna come together and he's gonna be able to.

[Unknown Host]

Optimistic.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. So I, I think that it's, it's accidental. It's still, you know, like if, if we're to take let's say Peter's story at face value, which I have no reason to distrust him. It's still not fair to Peter. But I, I, I don't think Tom does those things intentionally if that's, if that's what he did, which, you know, I don't know.

[Unknown Host]

And a lot of cheating.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, there's always, I mean any, like, any, any activity where there's a lot of money to be made will bring some cheaters, scammers.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. Have you run into any in your games?

[Phil Galfond]

You usually don't know when you get cheated there? No, I mean, I, I do know. I've been, I've been, I've been not paid. Okay. Many times. But as far as actual cheating, other than going way back to like, I don't know if you're familiar, but like the ultimate bet super user scandal, which was like 18 years ago or something, where there was cheating and then people got refunds. So I, I know that I was cheated because I got a refund from the site. Other than that, no, nothing. I don't, I don't know. Of times I've cheated, I've been cheated, but I, I probably have been.

[Unknown Host]

There was a site recently online that got exposed. Right. Dog expose a site.

[Phil Galfond]

There was, I'm trying to think. So there was a, there was a vulnerability that was exploited in GG software. I mean, GG is the biggest site.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah.

[Phil Galfond]

And apparently, and I, again, I want to, I want to be careful because like, this is my hazy recollection of, of what was said by, by all parties. But it's. What I think happened was they pushed an update to the software and it, it opened a vulnerability that somebody who was actually like a hacker, a developer, figured out how to exploit. And because of this vulnerability, he could see cards that were going to come before they came.

[Unknown Host]

Wow.

[Phil Galfond]

And it's a huge edge. Yeah. Yeah, it's a massive edge. And it's unclear how long he exploited that for, at least to me, I don't, I don't know. But they did figure it out and, and close it. And so, yeah, like, it, the ultimate bet scandal was actually like an inside job, somebody at the company who could see everybody's cards. So that's like, Whereas this, this recent, more recent GG scandal is, was just an oversight, like an accident.

[Unknown Host]

Got it.

[Phil Galfond]

By the developers that somebody, you know, like, I, I'm not a, I'm not a hacker. I, I wouldn't have been able to exploit it, but because somebody had these skills and noticed it, then. Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Do you prefer playing online or in person?

[Phil Galfond]

I prefer online.

[Unknown Host]

Really?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. I, I, there's something about, I mean, part of it is that I'm introverted. I just like being at a live poker table for like 12 hours and just like, even just the social element, I get burnt out. But there's also something about poker where, like poker for me, I just absolutely love it and I love diving into the problem solving of it. And so when I'm playing online and I'm just thinking through each and every decision, I, I get into this flow state that is just so fun. And when I'm playing live, I don't get into that because I'm just interrupted. I have to think about like, okay, my posture, what's my face look like? Am I moving correctly? Oh, I have to talk to this person now. And I have to talk to this person now. It just like breaks the flow and it break. It's. There are a lot of things that distract from just, like, the purity of the game that I love. Wow.

[Unknown Host]

I never saw that point of view, but that makes sense. There's a lot of factors in person, right?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Because people are so good at tells at your level.

[Phil Galfond]

Oh, yeah. So you have to, like. Yeah. It's funny. Like, after a day of poker, live, like, my body hurts. I'm just, like, sitting stiff like this.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. You know, I didn't even know they were looking at your posture.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. I mean, here's the thing. I think a lot of people are terrified. Like, a lot of amateurs and even people who play a decent amount are terrified that players are going to pick up tells. Again, I'm making up a number. But, you know, 95% of people out there who think that they're picking up tells are not. They're just, like. They're seeing noise. There's confirmation bias. And, you know, like, they say, oh, he. He moved his. Like, he moved his chips this way. I think he's weak. And then he shows down a weak hand. They're like, yes, I knew it. I was right. And then the next time it happens, they show down a strong hand, and they, like, ignore that. And so they think they have these tells that they don't. But there are some people who are very elite at tells, and those people can be dangerous.

[Unknown Host]

Phil Ivey, right?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

I mean, that dude is a machine.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, he is, I think. I mean, so we. We all just have to guess who's. Who's great at tells, by the way that they play. And, I mean, some people talk about how they're good at tells, and then, you know, how it's a big part of their game. Others don't. But I think Phil Hellmuth's another one, just based on the way that I see him play. There's a lot of some. Some way or another, he's guessing pretty well what other. What other people have.

[Unknown Host]

Interesting. I mean, there's no arguing with his results.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

He might be the go of tournaments.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. World Series of Poker bracelets. Nobody's. Nobody's close to him. And it's impressive. I mean, it's impressive for many reasons, but it's impressive that, you know, he was somebody who did it kind of before my generation and continues to, you know, every. I don't know how many. Every year or two.

[Unknown Host]

Right.

[Phil Galfond]

Managed to win another bracelet.

[Unknown Host]

How many people are still around from your generation?

[Phil Galfond]

So my generation, I'm about to turn 40, and this. My generation was like the online boom, which was so 2003. Chris Moneymaker won the World Series of Poker. And that coincided with a lot of online poker sites popping up around, you know, within a year or two of that. And just like that, that event, like it was a TV poker boom, which led to the online poker boom. And there are a ton of players still around for my generation, a lot of them. And a lot of, A lot of top players came, like most top players these days, I would say. Is that true? At least I think half came from my generation.

[Unknown Host]

Oh, wow.

[Phil Galfond]

More or less.

[Unknown Host]

So they're still around.

[Phil Galfond]

Okay, they are.

[Unknown Host]

Because I, I look at the old TV shows and I'm like, which one of these guys are still around and making money? Because poker is a really tough game to be profitable. And.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, so I can, if, if you watch TV back then, Poker on TV back then, like the High stakes pokers, which is my favorite, which was just the best. A lot of those guys are not around anymore. And that was a generation before mine who kind of started. Basically the way I split the generations is who started playing online by. By playing online and who started by playing live. Got it before online happened. And so a lot of people from that generation aren't around anymore, partially. I mean, some did very well and retired and moved on to other things. But others, it got too tough because players who came up online, they had so many more tools to learn with. And the natural selection process was just so much more powerful because there were so many more people playing online. So the ones that rose to the top had to rise to the top in a much tougher environment. And so they just, you know, got sharpened along the way. And when you're pulling from that large of a base of people who try, you're going to find more elite people.

[Unknown Host]

Absolutely. Have you seen the skill level go up every year?

[Phil Galfond]

There was a big gap, honestly. So in 2011, we call it Black Friday in the poker world, where online poker shut down in the US and at that point there stopped being. I mean, basically that was kind of marked the end of the poker boom. Back then, the, the poker shows on TV were largely funded by the online poker sites. So in some cases they actually just paid for the production. They paid like game show network to put the show on. In other cases, they were the commercials. So therefore, you know, the networks could get. Make money from the commercials and then put the shows on. So when they got shut down in the US which was far and away their biggest market, about half of, so like half of revenue from online poker sites, which were global, came from the U.S. wow. So when that was shut down, they. They got crushed and the poker boom kind of stopped. And there was a long lull in new players coming up, and only in the last several years has it picked up again. It's because of YouTube. So at first it was TV, but then the money was gone, so the networks were not producing more shows. But then on YouTube, you don't need a network to put your show on. And a lot of people kind of started. Well, there were two. There were Twitch streamers and then there were vloggers that kind of started it. And now there are a whole bunch of different kinds of poker YouTube channels. I have one that's more educational than. Than vloggy.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. I feel like guys like Brad Owen. Really?

[Phil Galfond]

Yes.

[Unknown Host]

Revitalize poker, right?

[Phil Galfond]

Absolutely. And. And now when you like anybody. So my wife plays a lot of tournaments. She's a poker player too. And I don't get out there as much, but she says, like, anytime she sees somebody who's like under 24, she gets curious, like playing in a reasonably high buying tournament, she's like, how did you find poker? How'd you start out? And then it's almost always YouTube.

[Unknown Host]

Wow.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. And now there's like these lodges, right?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Streaming games.

[Phil Galfond]

Tons of streaming games. Yeah. Yeah. That's become really big. Yeah. So first it was the bloggers. Now, I mean, people still. Still do those. Those vlogs, but I do think streaming is now getting. Yeah. More than massive.

[Unknown Host]

There's million dollar games being streamed now.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

It's insane.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, it's. Right. And these are the types of games that used to be on, you know, cable, but back when. When I was younger, and now, you know, they just stream them for free.

[Unknown Host]

Nuts. What's the highest buying game you've played?

[Phil Galfond]

I played in a game. The blinds were 2,000, 4,000, so it was 400,000 minimum.

[Unknown Host]

Oh, my gosh. Were you freaking out a little bit.

[Phil Galfond]

So it was like a. So I had regularly played in 500 1000, which is $100,000 buy. And that was normal for me, but I'd never played even double that. And this was quadruple, and it was a private game, which I never get into, but there was just this, like, I had a friend reach out and he's like, okay, this huge game was running, but people are leaving and they're actually open seats. So sometimes they run private games in casinos and they block people until there are just no more people to fill the seats. And then it's kind of open and sometimes what happens is then pros fill the seats and the game breaks. People leave, but. But sometimes they continue for a while. And so friends were like, hey, there's a seat. And I was like, okay, I don't have 400k with you right now. And I'm like, you need a few buy ins. So like I had, I don't know, I probably had like 300k in my account there. And so I had to contact like six friends and was like, okay, do you want a piece? I need some money right now. And it was like a huge hassle to, to get all of it together and get there. And then, you know, I lost a couple small pots. I lost like $150,000 and the game broke in like 20 minutes, so.

[Unknown Host]

20 minutes?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Damn. Yeah, that's nuts.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

400K buying. And that was just at a casino casually.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, it was Arya.

[Unknown Host]

Oh my gosh. I didn't know the games got that big over there.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, they, they don't these days. So there was, they used to have a private game that ran there. I mean, semi private game that ran there all the time is usually like $100,000 buy in, but sometimes got bigger. But these days I don't know of any that, that run in casinos. And like the, the public poker rooms, a lot of them have gone into, you know, apartments or, or homes.

[Unknown Host]

Why did the casinos kind of get away from that, you think?

[Phil Galfond]

I think it's more that the people who ran them to avoid things like what happened. Like people, you know, seats would open and people would get in. Whereas if you can go in somebody's home, you know, they control the environment. Pros can't show up and knock on their door and get into the game. The, the benefit of having it at a casino, in addition to the amenities, is that you can have more confidence that the game is safe there. There are a lot of stories of home games being cheated, and certainly not all of them are, but there it happens a lot more often in home games. Whereas in a casino they have all these security measure measures and it's not that it can't happen, but it happens.

[Unknown Host]

Much, much more rarely, especially with that much money involved. Yeah, I mean, hundreds of thousands of dollars, sometimes millions.

[Phil Galfond]

Yes.

[Unknown Host]

I've heard of home games getting in the millions.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Which is nuts.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. No, they get huge. The biggest games are, you know, you know, run out of casinos in people's homes.

[Unknown Host]

Do you still play a lot right now?

[Phil Galfond]

Right now? No, because I kind of have nothing to play. So. But before we Hopped on. I was saying I don't really play tournaments. Tournaments are not my thing. I play cash games and cash games have all gone private. And so the only thing, if I wanted to play high stakes now in a public game, it's. It's basically just tournaments are my only option.

[Unknown Host]

Wow. Because you're too good, you won't get invited? Basically, yeah.

[Phil Galfond]

I mean, there are some games who, they don't really care who they play with and they will invite you, but they haven't called me. And yeah, usually what happens is there's a host who runs a game and they either make money from the game, like rake, or, or they make money playing in the game, or they. Maybe they don't play in the game, but they back a couple of people in the game and they make money that way. And so they don't want good players in unless you're going to have a good player that they have. Have a piece of potentially. And so, yeah, it's. They try to. Sometimes pros get in and. But usually it's just because they're friends with the people in the game and they like their presence there.

[Unknown Host]

Makes sense.

[Phil Galfond]

But not, not too many of them.

[Unknown Host]

Usually in other sports, it seems like there's rivalries, but in poker, it seems like you guys are all friends. Is that true? Like all the top guys?

[Phil Galfond]

I mean. Yeah, it's kind of interesting how it works because you make friends with, you know, your, your peers and then sit down across the table from them and take a lot of money from them, you know, lose a lot of money to them and then go have dinner. Yeah. I mean, there, there are. Not everybody loves each other. There, there are people who dislike each other, but I wouldn't say there are rivalries in the same way that there are in other sports. Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah, I noticed that. It's fascinating to me. Like, you take 100 grand for someone, go get catch right after.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Nothing happened.

[Phil Galfond]

Like, I would imagine that. I guess, I don't know, other than. I don't know this world other than watching, you know, fictional TV shows. But I would imagine, like, lawyers might have the same kind of thing where.

[Unknown Host]

I respect.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. It's just like, yeah, this is the job. I'm going to try my best. You're going to try your best. Like, as long as we're playing fairly, this is the game. Like, this is what we signed up for. We're two people. We. We understood the rules, we sat down at the table and we're going to try to take each other's Money while we're at the table, but then, yeah, we can be friends.

[Unknown Host]

Makes sense. Have you been profitable the whole way through every year?

[Phil Galfond]

I had a, let's see, one or two years. I had like a break even year. I had a slightly losing year, but yeah, it's been 20 years.

[Unknown Host]

That's impressive.

[Phil Galfond]

Mostly profitable. Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

That's like unheard of in poker.

[Phil Galfond]

I feel like in, in tournaments it's actually not as, not as unheard of as you might think. In tournaments there are more losing years than in cash games and you do kind of have some control over it. It's actually, it's pretty annoying if, if you live in the US because if you have a, let's say a winning year, you know, you pay taxes on your winnings and if you have a losing year, you know you can't carry those losses forward.

[Unknown Host]

Right.

[Phil Galfond]

So like if I lose 500k this year, then I make 500k last year. I'm actually down money because I've paid tax on the 500k I won and I didn't get any back on the 100k I lost. So you. Actually, there's, there's an element of strategy where it's like, okay, it's, it's October. How am I doing on the year? And like, what risks can I take? Because you just really don't want to have a losing year.

[Unknown Host]

That makes sense. Same with crypto, though.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah, I've lost it. I mean, it's down bad right now.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. But you can, I think in crypto, and I might be wrong, you can carry losses forward at least. Like capital, like so like capital gains, which is long if you've hold. Held for over a year. Yeah, I know that like capital gains and capital loss you can carry forward.

[Unknown Host]

I think it's so minimal what you can carry though.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Like, I think if I don't know the exact number, I don't want to misquote it, but I remember I lost a lot and they were like, you can carry over this amount and it was so little that didn't really matter.

[Phil Galfond]

Interesting.

[Unknown Host]

You know, similar with stocks, I think.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. So that changes the strategy.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. But 20 years and only one losing year, man. Congrats.

[Phil Galfond]

Thank you.

[Unknown Host]

For real, you've really found. And you love the game. It's like you found that perfect.

[Phil Galfond]

I love the game right now. I, I don't have games to play. It's kind of sad, but I, I'll like it ebbs and flows. Especially the, the kind of like very high stakes poker. Economy, it just changes. Like what. Where the action is. Like the last few years it has been high stakes tournaments and, and home games, cash games. In years past it's jumped around and, and you know, it might go back online and you never know.

[Unknown Host]

Have you played against Alan Keating yet?

[Phil Galfond]

No, actually I, I mean have we ever. Maybe, maybe like 15 years ago, but no.

[Unknown Host]

Wow. He's everywhere now.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

What about Nick Erball?

[Phil Galfond]

I haven't played against him either. I, I arbitrated a match between him and Matt Berkey which was quite an adventure.

[Unknown Host]

Who won that?

[Phil Galfond]

Matt Berkey won. It was, it was million dollar heads up match.

[Unknown Host]

Damn.

[Phil Galfond]

And, and because they had a rivalry, there's a lot of smack talk beforehand and finally someone issued a challenge.

[Unknown Host]

That's respect though.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

May the best man win.

[Phil Galfond]

It's funny. So I've played a lot of heads up matches, never stemming from a rivalry, but there are a lot of matches that have started as kind of like poker beef, that often what happens is they play and then afterwards they gain respect for each other. And so the biggest one that happened was Daniel Negrano, Doug Polk, I saw that. So like they, they really disliked each other. And after the match I think both gained respect for each other. And I, I, I don't really know their, you know, friendship status, but I think it like certainly the, the way that they felt about each other changed as a result of playing against somebody. And I've played a lot of challenges. Like that's the main poker I've played in the last four years has been heads up really like months at a time. Challenges. Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Wow.

[Phil Galfond]

Cause that's like the most fun to me. So like I love, I love hand reading across multiple streets. I think I was telling you that before we hopped on, but I also just love breaking down the tendencies of one person and like really trying to figure out how they think and how they feel and adjusting them. And so a one on one match over like three months is just like I love it.

[Unknown Host]

That's the most skill right there. Right.

[Phil Galfond]

I mean you could, it's the most interesting skill. I think like that's the part I find most interesting tournaments where you know, you end up just like getting all in pre flop a lot. I think that's a much less interesting like I don't have fun with that. However, tournaments are super dynamic because the stack sizes vary all the time. So like cash games, you're usually deep stacked and so there's not a lot of variation hand to hand in terms of how that affects strategy. But in tournaments, stacks change all the time. So you're always having to adjust the way that you play because, oh, now there's a big stack on my left. Oh, now I don't have as many chips.

[Unknown Host]

Got it.

[Phil Galfond]

And, and as you approach the money, there's a icm, it's called, which comes from independent chip model. Doesn't matter. But basically, you know, if we're playing a, a tournament and there are three of us left and we all have even stacks and you know, first place pays a million, second place pays 500k, third place 250k. If you and I get all in on a coin flip, we both lose because the player who's left automatically moves up into the top two spots. And so in tournaments you don't want to take certain risks and depending on what, what the stack sizes are, how close you are to the money, how big the pay jumps are, it changes strategy all the time. So I think tournaments are extremely skillful. There's so much to think about, but it's not the skill that I find interesting.

[Unknown Host]

Right. What's your heads up record?

[Phil Galfond]

So these. So I issued a like, it was called the Galphin Challenge. And this was kind of in my return to poker after like focusing on business for a few years. And I played, I organized a series of matches that were extended and the first one was a really tough one against an online player called Benny Viti. Nobody knew his real name. I know his name, but I don't think anybody does just because we talked to arrange the match. And it was a 25, 000 hand match which I thought was going to take a couple months. It took like three months. And it started out terribly. Oh yeah, like with, it started out as bad as it could go. And it was, it was really tough because this was like my return to the spotlight.

[Unknown Host]

That was your first match back and.

[Phil Galfond]

I just like lose and lose and lose. So this was a $20,000 buy in, 100, 200 blinds. And I was down after like 10,000 hands. I was down 45 buy ins.

[Unknown Host]

Wow.

[Phil Galfond]

Which was. Well, it was 900k. We were playing in euro so like over a million U.S. holy crap. And I, at that point we had a side bet where I was risking like 200k on the who wins the, the match. But at that point I'm like not going to come back and win. It's just too far out. There were betting markets but they had closed at that point because it was just too astronomical. And I thought about quitting at that point, I actually took some time off and decided if I wanted to continue. And I continued and kind of just. It. Long story short, it was kind of just like it was seeming like this fairy tale where I started and I started winning and then continue to win, and continue to win. And I'll. Before I know it, you know, I'm not down a million. I'm down 500k.

[Unknown Host]

Okay.

[Phil Galfond]

And now I'm down 300k. And we got to a point with about 2,000 hands left in the match, and we were back to even.

[Unknown Host]

Wow.

[Phil Galfond]

And so, like, the. The. Obviously at the beginning, there was a lot of luck going on in his favor. We both don't know who the better player was. You know, usually when the bi. When like the swing is that big, it's going to be because you're outmatched. But you never really know, like, the chances of that happening. If I were the favorite were like 1% or 2%.

[Unknown Host]

Dang.

[Phil Galfond]

But it's still possible. But then also on the return, the. The flip side is true. So anyways, then it was anyone's game. And it actually came down to the last, like, 50 hands.

[Unknown Host]

Holy crap.

[Phil Galfond]

So the way that the structure works, because there's a side bet, if you're up enough money, at some point you could just kind of like effectively take a knee and fold the rest of your hands. Like, so just pay the blinds and you're automatically going to win. You're going to win the $200,000 side bet. And I thought that was going to happen at like, you know, 500 hands left or a thousand hands left. But it was just so close throughout, like the whole time. And it was 50 hands left that I made like a full house over full house against him and won a pot. That put me, like, just over the edge and I could fold the last 50 hands.

[Unknown Host]

Wow.

[Phil Galfond]

And so that it was like, it was such a storybook ending. Like, you couldn't have written it any better.

[Unknown Host]

What a comeback then.

[Phil Galfond]

And so I won that, and then I won the next four. So I'm five for five.

[Unknown Host]

Holy crap.

[Phil Galfond]

In those matches so far, I have one with Daniel Jungle man Cates.

[Unknown Host]

You beat Dan Cates?

[Phil Galfond]

No, we're actually halfway through and we're like, dead even if you beat him.

[Unknown Host]

I mean, not much better people than him in the world.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, he's fantastic. He's fantastic at every game. So these matches were all in pot Omaha, which is my specialty. If I played. If I played Dan and had something no limit hold him, he would he'd beat me up. I have. That hasn't been my game for, like 15 years.

[Unknown Host]

Got it. So, Omaha, what's. What's that game look like?

[Phil Galfond]

So it's dealt like hold'em, except you have four cards instead of two and you have to use two of them.

[Unknown Host]

Got it.

[Phil Galfond]

So in hold'em, you could end up using just one of your cards and the board, but in Omaha, you have to use two, and it's pot limit instead of no limit, which means you can only bet up to the amount that's in the pot. You can't. You can't over bet.

[Unknown Host]

Interesting.

[Phil Galfond]

And I kind of found that game, like I was saying earlier, I learned it at the very beginning from Tom. Tom Duan. And it was just because online, the highest stakes games had kind of moved from no limit over to plo. And I liked to follow the high stakes games because I wanted to keep playing big. And so I learned it and it just kind of stuck for me. Something about it. I don't know. Um, so, yeah, that became my specialty. And actually, I love no limit hold'em, but I've had no opportunities to really, like, learn it again and, like, no reason to learn it again and play it.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. Do you use those analyzers?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. Yeah. You ha. You have to use solvers to play at a. I shouldn't say that. I think you should. You'd be silly to not use them if you want to play at a very high level.

[Unknown Host]

Oh, wow.

[Phil Galfond]

But I also think that beginners should not start out that way.

[Unknown Host]

It's too complicated for beginners.

[Phil Galfond]

It's too complicated. They're going to misapply everything. Because what. What a solver will give you is it'll give you the exact strategy that it would play in any given conditions. But poker is so big. There are so many ways that the action can go. There are so many different flop combinations with turn and river and so many different hands that you can have that there's just like, nobody can memorize it. There's no chance. So what you have to do is not, like, look at the strategies and memorize them. You have to look at the strategies and say, okay, why is it doing this? Why is this the right way to play with these hands? And then what are those heuristics that I can take away? And then when I'm in a hand, not try to think back, oh, what was it doing here? Think back to, oh, well, what, like human logic can I use to. To figure this spot out?

[Unknown Host]

Interesting. So you're kind of thinking like an AI almost.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. Because they don't tell you how. They don't give you reasons for what they do. They just say, play this hand this way. Kind of like, you know, the chess engines. I think I. I know chess engines are more advanced. Maybe they explain more now. I don't know. But yeah, it's just like, this is the move.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah.

[Phil Galfond]

I don't know why it's the move. You got. You got to figure it out. But. And so the way to study with solvers, in my opinion, to. To get the information out faster and actually have it usable as a human with our. Our limitations for our weak human minds, is to figure out kind of what it's thinking, even though it's not thinking in the same way we do.

[Unknown Host]

Do you analyze all your losses with solvers?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, I mean, I look back at. Not all of them. No. I tend to look at spots that I found interesting. So there are some times where, you know, you feel like you played a hand really well and you're pretty confident that you understand the spot, but it just didn't go your way that time. Um, but when I'm playing a hand and I find myself in a spot, I'm just like, I'm lost here. Uh, that's when I. I get really interested in my study.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. When you get a weird bluff or something.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. Something that just. Yeah. You can't. Yeah. It's confusing.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah.

[Phil Galfond]

It's unique.

[Unknown Host]

You play chess, too?

[Phil Galfond]

I don't. I mean, I know the rules, but. No.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. I'm a chess player. I noticed a lot of them are switching to poker, though, right now.

[Phil Galfond]

A lot of. Yeah, a lot of chess players play poker. A lot of Magic the Gathering.

[Unknown Host]

Magic the Gathering, Yeah. Wow.

[Phil Galfond]

A lot of. A lot of pros started in. In Magic the Gathering. Long time ago. Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Interesting. I guess it is strategy.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

I don't know how that game works, but.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, I actually don't know.

[Unknown Host]

I remember those cards growing up. They were all, like, shiny and stuff.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Wow. Man. So what's the next move for you?

[Phil Galfond]

So right now, like I was saying, I don't have games to play. I'm playing the main event right now kind of for fun, because, I mean, it's the most fun tournament of the year. But I have started doing group coaching.

[Unknown Host]

Okay.

[Phil Galfond]

And I've. I've really kind of fallen in love with it. So I've long taught. I've. I've been a poker coach, like, through. Through training videos for about 15 years. Like, I. And I've always just taught like high level strategy to pros and through videos. And I, I love to teach and it comes naturally to me, so I've always done that. But this group coaching experience is new and I'm really focusing a lot more on teaching poker players instead of like the actual skills to play poker and strategy, like everything surrounding being a professional and having a good kind of life and career while playing poker professionally. Because, you know, I'm almost 40 now and I've kind of lived through it and I've gained a lot of experience that I wish I had had when I was 25.

[Unknown Host]

Right.

[Phil Galfond]

And so catching some people when they are 25, when they're 30, they haven't learned these lessons. And I mean I've coach people older than me too in this program, but I've just like really enjoyed working with people more directly.

[Unknown Host]

That's cool. The intangibles, right? That's not really talked about or taught anywhere. I've never seen it taught anywhere.

[Phil Galfond]

It's rare. So there are mindset coaches that will focus on performance and they have, I mean in a lot of sports they'll have these like sports psychologists or in poker. One who I work with now, Elliot Rowe, he's the most well known. He does like hypnotherapy. Um, and I would do that, you know, pre session during my galfon challenges to, to get ready for the day.

[Unknown Host]

Wow.

[Phil Galfond]

Um, but yeah, what I'm doing is not so much that, but it's more kind of just like holistic approach to like being efficient, productive, performing and studying and like not making mistakes.

[Unknown Host]

Right. Cause they're an athlete. That's the way I see it. Absolutely. You gotta take care of your body, your mental health.

[Phil Galfond]

You do. And that's something we didn't, we didn't real. A lot of poker players these days are very healthy. Fifteen years ago that was not the case. You know, it was mountain Dew and gummy worms.

[Unknown Host]

Facts smoking at the table back then. Yeah, yeah. Now I feel like any mental edge can give you a huge edge.

[Phil Galfond]

I believe so. Especially when you're playing the type of poker I do where it's usually against a pro one on one. And you know, we both think we're the better player. One of us is wrong. Who knows? But I know that I could show up on a given day and be the better player by quite a bit and then show up on the next day and be the worst player. The so much of the edge comes from figuring out these nuanced spots in a way that you can only figure out if you're just like reaching that top 10% of your brain. Wow. And so yeah, there are times where just in an individual hand I'll figure something out and I'll be like, okay, this is like a. Figuring that out in this moment we're in a 20k buying game just made me 8k. Like really just this one decision right here. And so and those are the decisions you miss if you're like autopiloting, if you're not all the way focused and those just, that's where the win rate comes from is in tough games now if you're playing in, in softer games, you can autopilot. Doesn't matter because people's mistakes are going to just, just kind of throw it. They're going to throw money at you.

[Unknown Host]

Right.

[Phil Galfond]

But when you're playing against pros who are really good, it comes from outmaneuvering them in, in some really tricky spots.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. Because they've seen everything. Right. So have you. So it's about those little details.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. They're not like they're not going to make a huge mistake.

[Unknown Host]

Right.

[Phil Galfond]

And I'm not going to make a huge mistake. So it's about figuring out what kinds of mistakes your opponent's making and adjusting to them both. Like adjusting your overall strategy. But also then in an individual hand think about, okay, so if he were to, to get here and play this spot correctly, he would have to bluff all of these hands and you'd have to value bet all of these hands. And I don't think he would have played these hands this way on a previous street and I don't think he knows to bluff this, this and this because like what I've, what I've seen from him, you know, and so then I real something that goes from like a break even caller fold decision goes to like a very clear fold and call would have been a huge mistake. Wow.

[Unknown Host]

So you're analyzing that many hands.

[Phil Galfond]

Oh yeah, yeah. So like thinking about your opponent's range of hands, all the hands that they could play that way is, is kind of the name of the game in, in high level strategy. It's just, you know, there's an element I think on you know, poker on TV and movies, people think you just look at the person, you're like, I know you have but those kind of things are pretty rare. Yeah, it's okay. I think you could have ace king or ace queen or ace jack or jack's plus or I think you'd have, you Know, middle set or bottom pair, or. I think you'd have a missed straight draw, and you think of all of the hands that they could have, and then you think of other actions and say, okay, well, which of their actions have. Have led me to want to eliminate some of these hands? And so you're like, okay, so he did that on the flop. Cross that one out. Cross that one out. Okay, on the turn, he did this. He wouldn't do that with this hand. He wouldn't do that with this hand. And. And I think the biggest edges in poker by far, and actually, like, the most fun for me is when my opponent is trying to represent a hand that they think they can have, that I know that they can't have. So, like, when you know better than your opponent how they would play a certain hand, that's. That's when the huge edges come. And that's like, what I love.

[Unknown Host]

It's really the game within the game, man. Yeah, I didn't know that much went into it. Holy crap. I got a player for you after your match with Kate that I think would be a good match.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Martin Cabral. Have you heard of him?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, yeah, I know, yeah, yeah, he laughed.

[Unknown Host]

So is there some story there?

[Phil Galfond]

No, no. He's just like, sometimes I've played with people like live, who I think I've had an edge on, but just the kind of just sitting across the table from them for that long is kind of unpleasant enough that I don't think it's worth it.

[Unknown Host]

I think that's part of his game, though.

[Phil Galfond]

I do, too.

[Unknown Host]

I think he does it on purpose.

[Phil Galfond]

It's. It's unclear to me. I mean, I think that's likely. Yeah, you have to have some element of that in your personality to. But yeah, yeah, I think he.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. Cuz what he did last year was hilarious. I mean, I know a lot of people were pissed, but when he was standing and looking at the cards, I.

[Phil Galfond]

Mean, the thing about that, I. I was. I mean, I wouldn't say I was pissed and I wasn't playing in the tournament. I didn't have any. I didn't have a dog in that fight. But I do think, like, I felt like that was crossing a line because it's one thing to annoy people, and I mean, that's annoying, but it's. It's one thing. But I felt like what he was doing there was making people feel like he was cheating. And so I think he probably wasn't cheating, but I feel like that's a. That's over the line to make people feel unsafe in the game.

[Unknown Host]

I could see that. Yeah. Dan Smith, I think said he might be cheating or someone called him out.

[Phil Galfond]

A lot of people thought. Yeah. Like the way a lot of the things that he did seemed like somebody who was cheating. I mean, I'm obviously speculating. I don't think he was, but I think he was making people think he was.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. I wonder how we do in your style. I've never seen him play that style.

[Phil Galfond]

Like online. Oh, plo or online or both Online.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. I've only seen them in person.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Because some people suck online. Right. And they're really good in person.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah. So. Yes and no. The thing about that, a lot of people say that they're like, I'm good, I'm good live. And then I go online and I lose. And they either say it's because I'm bad online or because the games are rigged or something like that. Really what it is is that online games are much tougher at the equivalent stakes. So like the, the rule of thumb that I use is, is that the online games are like the equivalent of 10 times higher the stakes live.

[Unknown Host]

Wow.

[Phil Galfond]

So if you're playing like one, two blinds online, that would be like 10, 20 live and those are more equivalent. And so what happens is people play 5, 10 live, they go into 5, 10 online and just they get massacred. Because like 5, 10 online is like 5100 live. It's.

[Unknown Host]

Why is it so much like 10x?

[Phil Galfond]

I think the best way to think about it is from the perspective of the player and kind of like my earn rate. So when I play live, I play maybe you know, 30 hands an hour. And when I play online, depending on what I'm playing. But I could play like If I'm playing six handed games and I could play like six of them, then I'm probably playing or like 500 hands an hour.

[Unknown Host]

You're playing six games at once?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah.

[Unknown Host]

Holy crap.

[Phil Galfond]

And so if I had the same win rate, you know, playing 30 hands an hour versus 500 hands an hour, I'm, you know, I'm making almost 20 times as much playing online. And so that's kind of why you. Because then if the games were the same quality, everybody would go online.

[Unknown Host]

Right.

[Phil Galfond]

And so the games get tougher and so it reaches this equilibrium of where you know, okay, I can make kind of the same amount. So playing live or online, you know, I could, I could play all these tables of 510 online or I could play that one table of 5100 live and it kind of equals the same hourly rate.

[Unknown Host]

That's a good way of looking at it. Wow, I never would have thought that to be honest.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, yeah, A lot of people, yeah, they think it's, you know, online's rigged or everybody's cheating or just like I just, when I don't see the person, I can't figure it out. And I think it's just. No, they, they hop into the same stakes online and it's much tougher.

[Unknown Host]

They probably have really good anti cheat by now because I know on the Chess.com app they ban cheaters within minutes.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, they, they do have, it depends on the site. So like the bigger sites have very good security. Generally people still get away with it for a while sometimes. Generally that happens at the highest stakes only because I think so when people are, when people are cheating at lower stakes, they're usually like, there's a bot ring. So they have, they have a bot that like 100 accounts have.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah.

[Phil Galfond]

And that is easier for the site to detect because they can see patterns that like all these accounts are playing similarly. They can look at financial data and like account identities and just see patterns. And so like those can get caught easily. The, the cheaters that have gone on and cheated for a longer period of time are players in high stakes games who have, you know, paid a developer 150k to build them something custom that nobody else is using. And so their patterns are a little different. They also can like, they don't have to always listen to what, what the bot tells them to do because they can use their own mind as well if they're decent at poker. And so that does become harder to detect. The sites are pretty good at it. They catch most cheaters for sure, but there's a risk.

[Unknown Host]

Yeah. Where could people find you, man, and keep up with your World Series run?

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, probably the best place is Twitter or X.

[Unknown Host]

All the poker gods are on X.

[Phil Galfond]

Yeah, it seems to be the place. Yeah. Poker players hang out. Yeah, that'd be X.com Phil Galfond and on YouTube as well at Phil Galfond and Instagram. Phil Galfond and phil galfond.com for the newsletter.

[Unknown Host]

Perfect. We'll link everything below. Thanks for coming on, man.

[Phil Galfond]

Oh yeah, my pleasure.

[Unknown Host]

That was fun. Thanks for watching guys. See you tomorrow.