Digital Social Hour Episode Summary: "How I Built a Sports Betting Algorithm | Chad Bleznick DSH #1148"

Release Date: January 29, 2025

Introduction to Chad Bleznick

In this episode of Digital Social Hour, host Sean Kelly sits down with Chad Bleznick, a seasoned sports bettor and content creator who has carved out a niche in the competitive world of sports betting. With over a decade of experience, Chad shares his journey from being a recreational bettor to developing a sophisticated sports betting algorithm that consistently beats the sportsbooks.

Chad's Journey into Sports Betting

Chad begins by recounting his initial foray into sports betting, highlighting a decade-long passion that only became public through his content creation efforts about a year and a half ago. He emphasizes the importance of confidence and having an edge before sharing his strategies publicly:

Chad Bleznick [01:49]: "Not really, because I like to be confident and sure of what I'm doing. So if I don't have an edge, I don't want to put stuff out there."

This disciplined approach sets Chad apart from many who start sharing their betting experiences without substantial backing, often leading to unreliable or unverified claims.

The Viability of Gaining an Edge in Sports Betting

A central theme of the conversation revolves around whether bettors can indeed gain an edge in sports betting. Chad confidently asserts that while the vast majority of bettors (~97%) lose, there are opportunities for the sharp and disciplined:

Chad Bleznick [02:25]: "For sure, yeah. I mean, most people lose, I would say like the public, probably 97% of people lose. Maybe higher."

Chad elaborates on the nature of sports betting, explaining that successful bettors focus on consistency rather than seeking "locks." He likens the process to maintaining a win rate of around 52-57%, where occasional losses are part of the strategy but long-term profitability is achievable through disciplined betting:

Chad Bleznick [03:21]: "The best sports bettors, they're just trying to win like 57% of the time, which means you're going to lose 43% of the time."

Developing the Sports Betting Algorithm

Chad delves into the creation of his sports betting algorithm, a response to witnessing friends lose against offshore sportsbooks. Dissatisfied with the inefficiencies and uncompetitiveness of these platforms, he decided to harness computer data to systematically outperform the sportsbooks:

Chad Bleznick [17:21]: "I took all information that I had and I built an algorithm in order to beat the bookies."

This algorithm-driven approach allows Chad to eliminate emotional biases, relying instead on data-driven decisions to place bets strategically. He emphasizes the necessity of continuous refinement of the algorithm to adapt to the evolving betting landscape:

Chad Bleznick [23:20]: "Constantly making tweaks, gotta update it all the time depending on what's going on. I'm always looking at it to make sure it's good."

Betting Strategies and Market Analysis

Chad shares his nuanced understanding of different sports markets, favoring college sports over the NFL due to lower betting volumes and greater potential edges. He explains how sportsbooks quickly adjust lines in high-volume markets like the NFL, making it harder to find profitable opportunities:

Chad Bleznick [13:15]: "I like to bet on the small market games because that's where the biggest edges are."

He highlights the importance of timing in placing bets, waiting for lines to shift based on his analysis and market movements to maximize value. For instance, Chad recounts a recent NFL bet where he capitalized on a line movement just before kickoff:

Chad Bleznick [14:23]: "I knew the line was going to move that way, so then I waited... I bet it at seven and now I'm winning."

Chad also touches on the significance of understanding player injuries and other insider information to anticipate line movements, further enhancing his algorithm's effectiveness:

Chad Bleznick [23:37]: "I knew players are injured before that's announced. I would do that every time even though I lost."

Experiences with Sportsbooks and Casinos

Chad recounts his experiences interacting with various sportsbooks and casinos, particularly instances where his successful betting led to limitations or bans:

Chad Bleznick [08:44]: "I was at Boyd Casino and I wanted to bet 10,000 on Boise State against Penn State... they said, we don't want your action anymore. You can't bet here."

He explains that consistent winners are often recognized by sportsbooks, which respond by limiting their betting capabilities to mitigate losses. This necessitates the importance of diversifying across multiple platforms to maintain betting opportunities.

Chad also discusses the challenges of large-scale betting and the constraints imposed by sportsbooks on high-stakes bettors, emphasizing the need for flexibility and multiple accounts:

Chad Bleznick [09:18]: "Most of these books, they act like they're so big and they take all these bets. People think that they take these big bets. They really don't."

Alternative Betting Avenues: Casinos and Slot Machines

While Chad primarily focuses on sports betting, he touches upon alternative gambling avenues like casinos and slot machines. He notes that although there are potential edges in slots, such as specific machines with favorable payout rates, these opportunities require significant time and effort with variable returns:

Chad Bleznick [20:31]: "But I like to do betting because you could bet bigger, but in slots, you can have edges for sure."

Chad advises that while alternative betting can be profitable, it lacks the scalability and systematic advantages that his sports betting algorithm provides.

Insights on the Sports Industry and Player Behavior

The conversation shifts towards broader insights on the sports industry, particularly basketball. Chad critiques the decline in NBA quality, attributing it to players prioritizing personal brands and social media over team success:

Chad Bleznick [30:05]: "It's because the players don't really give a fuck anymore. It's like if you're making 50, 60 million and you get that money guaranteed if you play or don't play or care or don't care, why would you care?"

He contrasts this with European basketball programs, praising their focus on player development and commitment to greatness:

Chad Bleznick [31:00]: "Because when you go to the youth basketball in Europe, they're teaching players to be great."

Chad also discusses the impact of NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals on college sports, suggesting that while they were intended to benefit athletes, they have led to financial imbalances and ethical dilemmas in betting:

Chad Bleznick [32:09]: "There's no market cap or salary cap. So... it's just like a race to the bottom opposite a race to the top."

Chad's Views on Coaching and Game Management

Chad shares his opinions on coaching philosophies, praising tactical minds like Bill Belichick while critiquing others he deems ineffective. He underscores the importance of adaptability and intelligence in coaching, drawing parallels with his analytical approach to betting:

Chad Bleznick [45:56]: "Marcus Freeman is the difference in terms of why they were able to play better."

He also touches upon the role of analytics in modern sports, lamenting that some coaches prioritize personal instincts over data-driven strategies, which can hinder team performance:

Chad Bleznick [45:56]: "They're too old and that they're not smart. The coaches probably want to listen to themselves over the analytics people because they're so dumb."

Conclusion: The Future of Sports Betting and Sports

As the episode wraps up, Chad emphasizes the evolving nature of sports betting and the necessity for continuous innovation to stay ahead. His algorithm represents a blend of data analysis, strategic betting, and adaptability, positioning him as a formidable player in the industry.

Chad Bleznick [23:25]: "I'm trying to figure out the process what makes the most money in the end. And if I could win an extra four or five hundred thousand every year betting sports, I'm happy with."

Chad's insights extend beyond betting, offering a critical perspective on the sports industry's current trajectory and its implications for both bettors and fans alike. His blend of analytical rigor and seasoned experience provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of what it takes to succeed in the high-stakes world of sports betting.

For more information about Chad Bleznick and his betting strategies, listeners can follow him on Twitter and Instagram under the handles @blezbetts and @c_bless, respectively.

Notable Quotes:

• Chad Bleznick [02:25]: "But there's definitely edges to be had."
• Chad Bleznick [03:21]: "The best sports bettors, they're just trying to win like 57% of the time, which means you're going to lose 43% of the time."
• Chad Bleznick [17:21]: "I took all information that I had and I built an algorithm in order to beat the bookies."
• Chad Bleznick [23:20]: "Constantly making tweaks, gotta update it all the time depending on what's going on. I'm always looking at it to make sure it's good."

Chad Bleznick's candid discussion offers a rare glimpse into the disciplined, analytical approach required to navigate and succeed in the competitive field of sports betting. His experiences and strategies provide valuable lessons for both novice and seasoned bettors aiming to refine their own practices.