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Digital Social Hour
Matt Medved: How Prediction Markets Are Monetizing Knowledge | DSH #1767
00:16:23
At ComplexCon, Matt Medved breaks down why prediction markets, AI, and crypto are converging faster than most people realize. Matt shares how platforms like Polymarket are unlocking a new way to monetize expertise, why prediction markets are fundamentally different from traditional betting, and how niche knowledge — politics, music, culture, weather — can now become an edge. The conversation also dives deep into AI’s impact on music and art, how tools like generative AI are reshaping creativity, and why artists who adopt AI will outpace those who don’t. Finally, Matt explains why crypto adoption has entered a new phase, how regulation is changing the landscape, and why digital assets are becoming too embedded in the system to ignore. This episode sits at the intersection of culture, technology, markets, and creativity — and explains what’s coming next. What You’ll Learn 🧠 How prediction markets unlock value from expertise 📊 Why mispriced markets exist — and how to spot the...
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- [00:00]
A
If there are other people who just don't believe in what you believe, but you know, you're right, you get some really interesting mispriced opportunities. I personally think it's like very PvE versus PvP. It's actually like pretty egalitarian because there are new markets popping up for all these different categories. And I feel like it's empowering people to like, if you, if you know your area, go have skin in the game. Yeah, yeah.
- [00:22]
B
There's a lot of crypto bets you can make 100%. I remember when Trump was giving a speech every day, you could bet on how many words he would say.
- [00:28]
A
Exactly. The, the press briefings, all of that. And, you know, I believe that this space is going to disrupt traditional markets.
- [00:39]
B
All right, guys, we're at ComplexCon. Got someone I've talked to for years. Finally meeting him in person today. Matt Medved. We met, man, over five years ago, right?
- [00:47]
A
I think so, man. It's been, we've, we've been dming, you know, love to see the journey, respective content paths and it's great to be here, man. Absolutely.
- [00:54]
B
You're here for the Ape Fest stuff. That's the client, right?
- [00:57]
A
Yeah. So now media, you know, Ape Chain is one of our big partners and so had to come out for apest to support, do some content, you know, all of that. And then they've got the activation here. And, you know, ComplexCon is great because there's so many artists, so many people in like, the luxury, the fashion world, the streetwear world, the music world. Yeah. So it brings like all my worlds together. Absolutely.
- [01:14]
B
There's a lot of intersection here.
- [01:15]
A
There really is, man. There really is. This is my first time back at complex con since 2021, so definitely different time in the markets, but it's been really good bouncing around, seeing a lot of artists that I know doing cool collabs and such, seeing what's up with just like the intersection of culture and technology. Absolutely.
- [01:31]
B
Let's talk prediction markets. So one of my sponsors, Kalshi, actually polymarkets, is sponsored too. You've been crushing it on both of those.
- [01:38]
A
Yeah, I gotta hear, I gotta hear the sauce. Well, you know, for me, man, prediction markets are really interesting because I think prediction markets are a new way of monetizing expertise. You know, there's a lot of people who have interest or have like, deep knowledge of different categories that before there just wasn't a way to unlock that value. Like, for me, for example, I'm a political junkie. I follow the elections, religiously So I started, you know, trading on polymarket last year during the elections when I noticed that they launched these mention markets. And I was like, oh, like, what's Trump going to say? What's Kamala going to say? And, you know, like, I know what a stump speech is. I know the difference between a rally and a town hall. And I was finding all of these kind of like, like, inefficiencies in the market where they were being mispriced, and it did well. And I. What was cool was, you know, I've been following politics for years. There wasn't a way for me to monetize that before. And now we're seeing that permeate culture, you know, like, I, I, like there were. I know some. Some people who cleaned up on the Taylor Swift album launch and, you know, they went and interviewed Swifties who had no idea about crypto, who had no idea about prediction markets, but knew a ton about what her releases were like in the past, knew, like, which singles are going to be the ones to stream the most. All of these different things that, like, you know, that not that knowledge was there, but now there's a way to unlock that value. Yeah. And I think that what's interesting is, you know, I'm not a. I'm not a trader, like, by. By design. I'm not a. I'd never bet on anything until poly market. Well, and so I think what's interesting is it's people like me. It's going to bring in all of these new market participants who previously, like, you know, wouldn't be going on, like the sports books or, you know, DraftKings or whatever. That's very powerful. And so I'm a big believer in it. Yeah. And I think, you know, in terms of the sauce, it's about finding your niche. You know, they always say, like, invest in what, you know, I think that's never more true than prediction markets.
- [03:21]
B
I love that. I will say, when it comes to stock trading, it's hard to find an edge. But with something like this, if you talk to the right people, like you said, Internet people that are really knowledgeable on certain topics, I feel like it gives you a bit of an edge, Right?
- [03:32]
A
Exactly, man. And people are trading, like, some really niche things. Everything from, like, the weather and, like, the peak temperature in different cities on different days. But there are people who are like amateur meteorologists who, like, go deep on that and figure it out. You know, there are charts, there are markets all around the Billboard charts. You know, I was at Billboard for Many years. I have a very good understanding of how those work. Yeah. So that's another area where it's like, oh, like just by like things that I kind of take by default, it's like, oh, I do actually have an edge on these compared to the general public. Right. And what's really interesting about prediction markets too is that there's always a counterparty. Right. Like unlike, unlike the sports betting where there's the sports book and you know you're against the house. There are casinos where it's all algorithmically designed to make you fail. But in this guys, it's like if there are other people who just don't believe in what you believe, but you know, you're right, you get some really interesting mispriced opportunities. And I don't know, I personally think it's like very PvE versus PvP. And I think that it's actually like pretty egalitarian because there are new markets popping up for all these different categories and I feel like it's empowering people to like, you know, if you, if you know your area, go have skin in the game. Yeah, yeah.
- [04:39]
B
There's a lot of crypto bets.
- [04:40]
A
You can make hundred.
- [04:41]
B
I remember when Trump was giving a speech every day, you could bet on how many words he would say.
- [04:45]
A
Exactly. The press briefings, all of that. And it's really interesting now with polymarket and call she, I mean they're just, they're like duking it out right now. Yeah. And you know, I really do believe that this space is going to disrupt traditional markets. I mean, think about it this way. You know, I think every investment, every trade you make in any market is a prediction. Why do you buy Tesla stock? Because you predict that it's going to go up. Right. Or you predict if you sell it because you predict it's going to go down for years. For years people have invested in commodities around what they think is going to happen in world events. You know, back in the day, if you thought there was going to be war in the Middle east, you buy oil futures. Right. Well now with these prediction markets you can actually bet on the outcome itself versus like exposure to a third party asset. Right. I think that's very powerful and I don't think that genie is going back inside the bottle. You.
- [05:29]
B
Yeah, especially now with the whole NBA scandal. I feel like people are looking for better ways to invest their money.
- [05:34]
A
Right, exactly. And what's interesting too about polymarket specifically is that it's all transparent on chain. Right. So like if a big whale insider Comes in and like and bets a lot. People notice that because they see it and you know, that creates conversation. People understand this might be an insider, things like that. So there's like, there isn't the black box that exists with like traditional casinos and sports books. Like, you know, don't know who's betting, you don't know what they're betting or how it's going in. Everything's on chain there. Absolutely.
- [06:00]
B
Now, I know you're also big in the music industry.
- [06:02]
A
Yeah.
- [06:03]
B
Do you think the future of music is going to have a lot of AI involved?
- [06:07]
A
Absolutely, man. And I'm very bullish on it, you know, to me. So, you know, I, I, I founded Billboard Dance built that, you know, ran Spin magazine as editor in chief, Exit Roots sold by that. So I've been deep in the music side for a while. I DJ and produce music and I think that the rise of AI music generative AI music.
- [06:27]
C
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- [07:33]
A
You know, pro programs and platforms like Suno and Udio are going to absolutely change the music industry. They're not ready for it. Yeah, I like right now what took me weeks as a producer takes me hours. Damn, it's crazy, man. You can create your own samples, you can create your own loops. Anything you can imagine comes out. And what's also very powerful, powerful unlock. I'm a by ear musician, so for me, like I grew up hearing music in my head. I'll play a little piano, played a little viola. I wasn't particularly great at Those. But, you know, like, those weren't the right tools for me to get the music out of my head. And I remember I used to have to, like, hit a key, be like, oh, laboriously, like, what's the note in my head? Is it this key? Is it that key? And then Ableton launched. Ableton, I had launched audio to midi. And all of a sudden I could sing the music in my head and it would immediately do the midi.
- [08:17]
B
No way.
- [08:18]
A
Yeah. So that was a huge unlock for me. That's when I released my marshmallow remix. Started to, like, really kind of gain traction with my music. But AI is like that on steroids. That's because now I can literally do an entire arrangement that I have in my head. I can bring it to life with AI so quickly. I'm working on a musical right now, and I'm literally bringing it to life fully arranged with AI vocals doing all the different parts. And it's like, it creates. It's. You can create a fully fleshed out demo. Yeah. Now, obviously I'm gonna go and. Yeah, I'm gonna go and like, create that musical with real performers and real musicians and all of that. But I can get. I can go from ideation to an execution of it that people can understand so much quicker now. Yeah. And I don't think that genie is going back inside the bottle either, man. And so it's interesting because, you know, I always say this, like, AI is a tool, like anything, right? Yeah. Like a viola is a tool, a piano is a tool. Turntables, you know, electronic music, you know, all of the tools that go into that, they're all tools. They unlock different elements of creativity. To me, I've always said, like, you know, AI especially when it comes to, like, AI Art, we do a lot of that with NOW Media. AI Art, it's like, it's a camera for your imagination. And now with AI Music, it's like a microphone. Yeah. And so what I think you're gonna see is the rise of all these producers and artists who come from unconventional backgrounds or have non traditional skill sets who had all this genius inside if they're gonna be able to unlock in new ways because they're using these tools. And so, like, that, to me, is very exciting obviously too. Look, with the rise of AI Music, there's obviously a lot of those tracks that are going to be flooding the streaming services right now. I know they're kind of doing a balancing act of trying to figure out how do we get rid of the slop, but how do we retain the stuff that's actually valuable and interesting? But I think in the future AI is just going to be considered a tool that if you're not using it, it's like, well, aren't you using pro tools? Like, aren't you using Ableton? Aren't you using midi? Like, it's just going to be a part of every producer's hair kit and we're going to normalize it because people are just going to grow up in a world where AI is just part of the workflow for sure.
- [10:20]
B
I was playing around with Sora last week. Have you tried that one?
- [10:22]
A
Yeah. Sora is super powerful, man. Yeah. And on the music side, Suno is taking the cake. I do all my stuff in Suno. Yeah. Yeah.
- [10:29]
B
It feels like it levels the playing field for everyone, right?
- [10:32]
A
Exactly. They're not super expensive programs. Exactly. And so. And you know, like, you know, I come from the dance music world. Yeah. So like the rise of guys like Martin Garrix, Avicii, that whole EDM wave, it was, it was because of what exactly you're saying there was a democratization of access to digital technology. All of a sudden these kids in their bedrooms could have access to like industry standard software. All that. All they needed was an Internet connection and like a working knowledge of BitTorrent. Right. And so like, that's how you had the rise of all of those artists. Now we're seeing the same thing in the visual space with art, we're seeing the same thing with music. And there's an accessibility now. And, you know, what does it mean when anybody can bring an idea to life? What does it mean when you can make an industry standard song from a. From a text prompt? Well, it means that the great ideas are going to be the differentiators. And so I always say, like, AI is not going to replace artists, but artists that are using AI are going to absolutely outpace the artists that are not facts.
- [11:27]
B
Let's end off with crypto. I know you're big in crypto now. We got crypto, credit cards. It feels like it's becoming really mainstream now, right?
- [11:34]
A
Absolutely, man. I have like. So I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013. I was the top signal of that market. Right. It cost like two weeks later, 20k price. 900. 900? Yeah. And then it crashed down to like 250. Yeah. And then like 16 to 18 is when I got into Ethereum. All that, my journey, you know. Then with the rise of NFTs, I was like, okay, finally it's the, it's the, you know, technology I believed in for a long time, disrupting fields. I'm actually passionate about art, music, culture in a way that can empower creators. Now the level of regulatory credibility that we're seeing, the embrace of the crypto space of digital assets by the current administration is like nothing I thought was possible within that time frame because I remember in 2013 the entire financial system was saying that bitcoin was a joke, a scam, a threat to the established order. And now you have Grayscale, Blackrock, VanEck, all of the biggest financial services basically, you know, opening the doors, opening the floodgates, launching their own stablecoins, getting into the games with ETFs. And what we're seeing is an institutionally driven cycle. And there are, there are a couple bills before Congress right now. One of them just passed, the genius bill, very important for stablecoins. The other one, the Clarity act, will essentially codify all of the, all the things, all the changes that have been made at the SEC so that people understand crypto is not a security. You know, we have solid regulatory ground to build on because, you know, the previous administration basically had a war on crypto. Like Gary Gensler's SEC was very adversarial. Now under Paul Atkins, absolutely embracing it. But what the one thing is, is if, if a different administration comes in and feels differently, they can reverse all that stuff with the sec, unless it's codified into law. So what you're going to see, man, is that when they actually codify this, when they pass the Clarity act, you're actually going to see a ton of institutional capital that's currently on the sidelines pour in because they can afford to wait, they think in like 12 to 18 month cycles, but they want to, they want to pour in once. There's absolutely no regulatory risk. Yeah. So that's really important for them. Right. And so I think we're on the precipice of like an entire, like a golden age in crypto. And you're always going to have like the, the day to day the pendulum, the ups and downs. It's volatile for a reason, but I'm incredibly bullish on the future of digital assets. I think we're all living our lives more digitally and now that you have these massive institutions embracing this, it's almost become like too big to fail. Yeah.
- [14:01]
B
One of my favorite NFTs I have is Chubby Cattle. Yeah, have you heard of that one?
- [14:04]
A
I've heard of it, yeah.
- [14:05]
B
They have like restaurants around the country and every time you show it, you get a discount, you get free appetizers. It has real utility.
- [14:11]
A
Yeah.
- [14:12]
B
So, like, I've ended up making money on it because I eat there so much. I love that, you know.
- [14:16]
A
Yeah. And, you know, I'm still a big believer in that space. I know that, you know, you know, everyone's like, oh, the NFT bubble burst. Look, we're never going to see a 2021 repeat itself again. But if you have to look at that, at the, at the adoption arc of technology, it took more than a decade for Bitcoin to go from its birth to being accepted by the, by the traditional institutions, the financial system, the NFT space is still very new. And Nathan. Right. And so I think as we zoom out, we're going to continue to see it bend towards progress, that arc. And the thing is, is in an increasingly digital world, you cannot tell me that unique digital assets are not going to be more important and more valuable in the future. Right? We've seen this even outside of the blockchain context when it comes to Roblox, when it comes to Fortnite to Counter Strike, you know, there was all this stuff with the skins recently, you know, that. That's not going out. Like, that's not going anywhere. Right. And so. But where. I think it's going to get really interesting. I mean, one of the reasons that we rebranded from NFT now to NOW media was we recognize that the culture, the digital culture movement is bigger than any one medium, Right. I come from the music side, so NFT's arc reminds me a lot of MP3s. When MP3 players first came out and it was new technology, everybody was talking about MP3s and, you know, then it kind of moved from the conversation from what they are to what they do, right? You know, the Apple ipod, you know, had the 1,000 songs in your pocket moment, which, like, put that tech on the map for, like, your average consumer. By now, people. Now people don't talk about MP3s anymore, but they still use them every day. They're still streaming them all those things. And that, I think is a success because that's how, you know, technology has really hit mainstream, is when you're not talking about the tech itself, but about what it creates, right? And we think we're going to see the same thing with NFTs underneath the surface, right? Because as. As things are built on blockchain rails, there's going to be unique assets. Those are going to be NFTs. We may not talk about them as such. And I actually think that's a good thing.
- [16:05]
B
Yeah, I agree. Matt, it's been fun, man. Where can people find you?
- [16:08]
A
Yeah. @Matt Medved on Twitter, Instagram and the company's Now Media. Now Media on the same platform. Otto.
- [16:14]
B
Check them out, guys.
- [16:15]
A
Peace.
- [16:17]
C
I hope you guys are enjoying the show. Please don't forget to like and subscribe. It helps the show a lot with the algorithm. Thank you.