Digital Social Hour | Episode #1571

Guest: Ryan McBeth | Host: Sean Kelly
Date: October 15, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode of Digital Social Hour, Sean Kelly hosts intelligence analyst, author, and YouTuber Ryan McBeth for a multifaceted conversation ranging from the future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the myth of “Trump is Pro-Russia,” to Pentagon priorities, military technology, Middle East dynamics, unconventional warfare, and the process of writing alternate history. The discussion mixes global geopolitics, personal anecdotes, and candid opinions, delivering unfiltered insights into the defense world.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. How Will the Russia-Ukraine War End?

[00:00 – 00:33; 38:17 – 43:33]

• Two Likely Scenarios:
  • Russia collapses as a nation, unable to sustain the war.
  • Negotiated settlement—neither Russia nor Ukraine gets all their demands.
  • “I actually believe that second option.” – Ryan McBeth [00:19]
  • “There’s lose and lose more... The question is, who loses more?” – McBeth [35:22]
• Prolonged wars are possible (“Seventy years before [Russia] takes all of Ukraine” [38:02]), but unlikely to last that long in modern times.
• Even if Russia seizes territory, McBeth sees their international isolation and economic problems as a net loss: “Who’s going to trade with them? How do they get their economy back?” [35:38]
• Ongoing analysis: McBeth tracks Russian fuel prices to measure the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries. [36:17]
• Drone Warfare: A glimpse into the future—Ukrainians deploy robotic assault vehicles and AI-enabled hunter-killer drone swarms. [41:43–43:33]
  • “These drones were shooting guns.” [42:28–42:31]
  • “Once you start an AI program, you can’t turn it off.” [43:44]

2. Trump, Russia, and the Real Problem in the Pentagon

[38:40 – 39:57]

• McBeth challenges the narrative of Trump as consistently pro-Russia:
  • “I don’t think Trump supports Russia.” [38:42]
• The real issue, per McBeth, lies with Pentagon leadership, namely Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby:
  • “He has a raging war boner for China, like, bigger than mine.” [39:03]
  • Colby’s focus on China explains disruptions in military aid to Ukraine—resources are prioritized to prepare for a potential China conflict rather than supporting Ukraine.

3. Alternate History—The “Last Republic”

[01:22 – 07:14]

• McBeth’s book imagines a world where Brigham Young and the Mormon pioneers founded an independent nation (Deseret) that persists into the modern era and sometimes clashes with the US.
• Details matter: McBeth travels to research real locations for accuracy, weaving music, history, and political satire into his narrative (“In my novel, Mitt Romney was president of Deseret. Trump was actually a Democrat. And he won two terms after Obama.” [06:12])
• The book investigates social problems, like “Lost Boys” resulting from polygamy, and riffs on present-day immigration debates (“We’re going to build a wall, and Deseret’s going to pay for it.” [06:57])

4. Mormon Missionaries: America’s Linguistic Asset

[02:54 – 04:08]

• McBeth discusses how Latter-Day Saints (LDS) members return from missions fluent in diverse languages, significantly bolstering US military intelligence and translator/interrogator ranks.
  • “We would have a harder time protecting America without the LDS Church based in America.” [02:54]
  • “Their interrogator translators are so crucial to us understanding what is going on in other countries.” [04:08]

5. Chinese Military Power & Parade Optics

[07:25 – 12:15]

• China’s military parades are more about spectacle than substance:
  • “When you look at China and these guys are marching in perfect step, well, that’s because they spent three months rehearsing that. So what are they not doing during those other three months? Training.” [08:21]
• Many vehicles are visually modified (“vis mods”), lacking operational anchor points—suggesting many are for show only.
• New small arms (QBZ 191) are being widely distributed, significant for such a large military (2.2 million personnel [10:21]).
• McBeth predicts US-China conflict within a few years:
  • “We will be at war with China in 2027 or 2028.” [11:12]
  • “When a dictator says something, you believe them… Xi Jinping’s literally said we’re going to invade [Taiwan].” [11:18–11:23]

6. Israel, Palestine, and the Limits of Counterinsurgency

[13:53 – 35:22]

• McBeth shares firsthand reporting in Israel, navigating both the operational side (security briefings, device risks) and the human toll (covering attacks).
• Attempts to apply Iraqi “Sons of Iraq” strategy (arming moderate locals) to Palestine:
  • “I thought, why can’t we do this with the Palestinians? …When I went to Israel and I actually talked with some of the soldiers… I went, oh, I was wrong. We can't do that.” [25:21–25:38]
  • “If we armed moderate Palestinians… as soon as they were done killing Hamas, they would turn right and march right into Israel.” [25:44–25:50]
• McBeth is critical of Israeli leadership and their doctrine:
  • “Everyone at brigade level and above couldn’t find their ass with a flashlight, a map and a four-hour meeting.” [26:26]
  • Conscription leads to a brain drain at upper levels; those unable to do anything else or who are “really good” rise to general.
• Civilian casualties and “acceptable ratios” differ greatly between US and Israeli militaries (“We had an NCV [non-combatant casualty cutoff] of maybe 5. In Israel, at least one brigade was 20 to 1.” [28:12–28:45])
• Discusses the “middle ground” Israel is fighting in—not full counterinsurgency (COIN), not full-scale conventional war—leading to doctrinal confusion and high civilian casualties.

7. Weaponization of Information and the Gaza War

[34:54 – 35:20]

• “Information warfare” is increasingly the battleground—Hamas can’t win militarily, but influences global opinion via civilian casualty narratives.
• “Hamas knows that they can’t win by force of arms. … The only way they can 'win'… is information war.” [35:00–35:20]

8. War Crimes, Law, and the Reality of Modern Warfare

[28:52 – 32:14]

• McBeth delves into what constitutes actual war crimes (e.g., “perfidy” and the legal limits of battlefield deception), and how social media often misinforms or criminalizes actions that are legal under the laws of war.
• Displacement as a component of genocide—debates whether Israel’s choices could be smarter (“If Israel was smart, what they should have done was open the border down at Khan Yunus…” [31:01])

9. Personal Threats, Fans, and Life as an Intel Personality

[16:38 – 21:16]

• McBeth’s growing fame leads to both positive fan encounters and dangerous situations (being stalked, threatened, or assaulted), sometimes requiring him to draw his gun.
• “I had a guy chase me down Route 495 in a Honda Civic… I have my gun out and I'm like, crap, I'm gonna have to… get into a gun battle on 495.” [18:04–18:30]
• He emphasizes never seeking confrontation, despite being well-armed and trained:
  • “When you choose to carry a gun, your very next motivation is never to use that weapon.” [19:07]

10. Tech, Cars, and Everyday Life

[20:01 – 22:10]

• Personal anecdote: Gave up Tesla after negative encounters and technical issues, returns to his favored Ford Ranger:
  • “It was never me. I am a light truck guy.” [21:13]
  • “Tesla… there’s too many crazy people who want to come after me… because I’m driving a Tesla. They don't like Elon Musk.” [21:36]
• Both Ryan and Sean discuss car culture and climate effects on Tesla batteries.

11. The Most Intriguing War: The “Toyota War”

[46:31 – 49:53]

• McBeth’s favorite obscure conflict: Libya’s invasion of Chad—won not by high technology but by the Chadian army’s use of rugged Toyota pickup trucks and machine guns (“technicals”):
  • “We just want pickup trucks and machine guns… and we can win the fight.” [47:13–48:32]
• Explains how these “technicals” became war staples, from Somalia to the Taliban.

12. Reflections on World War II and the Morality of War

[49:53 – 51:56]

• Discussion of “the last good war”—with distinct good vs. evil narrative, and continued cultural fascination.
• Raises moral complexities:
  • “If we lost the war against the Japanese… we probably would have been put up on war crimes charges for dropping incendiary [bombs].” [50:48]
  • More died in Tokyo firebombing than in Hiroshima or Nagasaki. [51:00–51:56]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I wake up and I go to sleep every day thinking about how we can rapidly—and most efficiently—kill Chinese soldiers entering Taiwan.” — Ryan McBeth [12:13]
• “When a dictator says something, you believe them.” — McBeth on Xi Jinping’s Taiwan invasion preparations [11:23]
• “You have to view it in the totality of the circumstance.” — McBeth, on interpreting war crimes and social media coverage [30:29]
• “Everyone at brigade level and above couldn’t find their ass with a flashlight, a map and a four-hour meeting.” — McBeth, critiquing Israeli military leadership [26:26]
• “I've often said whenever you see someone firing a Javelin anti-tank missile, I want you to imagine dropping a Ferrari from a building, like in Ferris Bueller's Day Off.” [40:13]
• “There’s lose and lose more… The question is, who loses more?” — McBeth, on war outcomes [35:22]
• “If you can't pick them up, don't pick them up.” — Army wisdom, as recalled by McBeth [21:02]

Important Timestamps

• 00:00–00:33 & 38:17–43:33 — McBeth on the endgame for Russia/Ukraine
• 11:12 — “We will be at war with China in 2027 or 2028.”
• 26:26 — Scathing critique of Israeli command structure
• 30:29 — Understanding war crimes in Ukraine
• 39:03 — “Elbridge Colby has a raging war boner for China…”
• 40:13 — The real cost of a Javelin missile
• 42:28 — “These drones were shooting guns.”
• 47:13–48:32 — The “Toyota War” and lessons of pickup-truck warfare
• 51:00–51:56 — Firebombing Tokyo vs. atomic bombs

Closing

A fast-paced, no-holds-barred conversation, this episode delivers sharp analysis on global conflicts, the complex interplay of US politics and policy, the changing face of warfare, and the reality of military life in (and out) of the spotlight. McBeth’s experience and wit shine, making this episode a must-listen (or must-read) for anyone interested in world affairs, the military, or the strange possibilities of alternate history.