Operation Hummingbird

Summary

DOUBT: The Case of Lucy Letby – Episode 3: Operation Hummingbird

Host: Amanda Knox (iHeartPodcasts)
Date: March 10, 2026

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Overview

In this episode titled "Operation Hummingbird," Amanda Knox delves into the launch and development of the police investigation that led to nurse Lucy Letby being accused—and ultimately convicted—of murdering and attempting to murder infants at the Countess of Chester Hospital. Knox, drawing from her own harrowing experience with wrongful conviction and trial by media, explores the machinery of suspicion, the process of police inquiry, the risk of tunnel vision, and the crucial role of expert testimony. The episode interrogates if Letby’s case is as clear-cut as commonly believed, raising essential questions about bias, evidence, and the criminal justice system in high-profile cases.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Arrest of Lucy Letby

[03:25–05:56]

• Amanda watches Letby’s arrest video for the first time, describing Lucy’s “shocked” expression and reflecting on the meaning we project onto such moments depending on our preconceptions.
• Knox parallels her own arrest—her shock, helplessness, and the surreal transformation from an ordinary person to a suspect in custody.
• Quote:

  “It's the ultimate like being rendered small.” – Amanda Knox [05:16]

Escalating Suspicion at the Hospital

[12:46–14:43]

• Doctors at the Countess of Chester Hospital are increasingly frustrated as several external reviews fail to validate their suspicion that an insider (Lucy) is responsible for unexplained collapses and deaths.

• Michelle Warden, a former neonatal nurse, tells Amanda that from the beginning, the staff’s suspicion was focused not on accidents or mistakes, but on possible malice.

  Quote:

  “From the first moment that they pointed the finger at Lucy, they were not thinking that Lucy had made a clinical mistake... They were definitely considering that this was a malicious act.” – Michelle Warden [13:28]

The Alarm Raised – The Baby K Incident

[14:43–15:31]

• Dr. Jayram claims to have witnessed Lucy watching as a baby nearly died, a memory that “will be in my nightmares forever.”

• The podcast questions why, if Dr. Jayram was so suspicious, he didn’t immediately inform authorities or document the episode.

  Quote:

  “If you seriously think you've walked into a nursery where somebody's about to murder a baby, you just get in your car and drive to the police station, wouldn't you?” – Amanda Knox, paraphrasing skepticism [15:24]

Police Hesitation and Conviction Grows

[15:31–17:14]

• The police remain unconvinced until Drs. Breary and Jayram present their case directly to Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes.

• The police open an investigation code-named Operation Hummingbird.

  Quote:

  “The very fact that the police, after listening to us for less than 10 minutes, realized that this is something they had to be involved with, to me, speaks volumes and I could have punched the air.” – Dr. Jayram [17:14]

Concerns of Bias, ‘Marking Their Own Homework’

[18:28–20:00]

• Dr. Phil Hammond, a retired doctor and journalist, criticizes the police for relying heavily on the internal medical team’s own reports, noting bias and a lack of independent assessment.

• Hammond describes “gaming the information” in internal emails among the doctors aiming to “pique the interest of the police” by highlighting Letby’s presence at every incident.

  Quote:

  “They were the ones... who raised concerns, and the police allowed the doctors to investigate these deaths and mark their own homework.” – Dr. Hammond [18:46]
  “Should we highlight explicitly for these cases that LL was in attendance... I think for the police to have their interest piqued, we need to have that.” – Dr. Jayram, quoted email [19:33]

The ‘Welsh Wizard’ Joins Operation Hummingbird

[21:32–24:25]

• Dr. Dowie Evans, a retiree with decades of neonatal experience—nicknamed ‘the Welsh Wizard’—proactively offers to consult for police.
• Dr. Evans says he approached the records “unbiased”—wanting to see all data, not just suspicious cases.
• However, Dr. Hammond points out Evans’s rapid certainty, noting “within 10 minutes of looking at the notes of the baby, I knew this was inflicted harm,” underscoring the risk of early, untested conclusions.

The Dangers of Tunnel Vision and Confirmation Bias

[29:18–31:48]

• Amanda explains “tunnel vision”—when investigators are so focused on a theory that contradictory or exculpatory evidence is ignored. She relates this to her own past as a suspect.

• John Sweeney (journalist) points out that the case against Letby was built on a foundation where she was always the inevitable focus, questioning how “alternative explanations” may have been prematurely dismissed.

• Sweeney and Amanda both highlight the peril of erroneous convictions based on such bias.

  Quote:

  “What happens if they're wrong... if the doctors have improperly excluded other alternative explanations?” – John Sweeney [31:26]

Statistical Analysis and the Flawed Casework

[32:08–35:49]

• Dr. Jane Hutton, a statistics professor, is asked to retro-fit probabilities to match investigators’ suspicion (e.g., “Can you come up with a figure of one in a million for probability of somebody being on duty?”).

• She resists such cherry-picking and insists on rigorous, wider data collection to properly assess deaths in the unit.

• Hutton was ultimately sidelined and only heard of developments when Letby was arrested.

  Quote:

  “That's completely the wrong way to do it.” – Dr. Jane Hutton [32:47]
  “You need to be very aware of cognitive bias and the risk of people looking for evidence.” – Dr. Jane Hutton [35:22]

The “Damning” Written Evidence

[39:22–40:01]

• Police find Letby’s personal notes, including confessions such as:
  “I don't deserve to live. I killed them on purpose because I'm not good enough to care for them... I am evil. I did this.”

• Investigators and prosecutors perceive these as near-irrefutable proof, but Amanda implies the full truth behind such admissions may be more complex.

  Quote:

  “That's a very striking visual piece of evidence for the jury. So we got that very early on.” – Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes [39:22]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I do know that feeling of shock and just helplessness and how suddenly you go from being a regular person... and now the world is completely changed.” — Amanda Knox [04:33]
• “Doctors are human, so we're suspect of the same biases and temptations as everyone else.” — Dr. Phil Hammond [18:46]
• “Tunnel vision... a species of confirmation bias. It’s a very dangerous problem, one at the heart of many wrongful convictions, including mine.” — Amanda Knox [29:18]
• “Well, all the graph shows is Letby was present when she was present. It doesn’t actually show you anything other than that.” — Dr. Jane Hutton [36:46]
• “Why Lucy? Why are they targeting her?... Why me? What was it about me that made the entire world think... I was some kind of insane murder orgy?” — Amanda Knox [36:56]

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Important Timestamps by Segment

| Time | Segment | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:25 | Amanda watches Letby’s arrest, discusses shock and out-of-body feeling | | 12:46 | Doctors’ frustration and fixation on malicious acts behind deaths | | 14:43 | Dr. Jayram recounts the Baby K incident | | 15:31 | Police skepticism and the fateful meeting w/ Drs. Breary & Jayram | | 17:26 | Launch of Operation Hummingbird | | 18:28 | Dr. Hammond’s criticism on doctors marking their own homework | | 19:33 | Internal emails about highlighting Letby in police evidence | | 21:32 | Introduction of Dr. Dowie Evans (“Welsh Wizard”) | | 23:58 | Evans’s stated desire for unbiased investigation | | 29:18 | Amanda discusses tunnel vision and wrongful convictions | | 32:47 | Dr. Hutton challenges the statistics framing of the police | | 36:46 | Statistical evidence and Hutton’s critique of the “staff presence” graph| | 39:22 | The discovery of Letby’s notes—“I am evil. I did this.” |

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Tone and Language

Amanda Knox’s narration is personal, reflective, and often empathetic, especially when drawing connections with her own experiences of being accused and misunderstood. Throughout, there is a palpable skepticism about institutional certainty and a focus on due process and reasonable doubt. The featured experts and commentators offer a mixture of clinical detachment, cautionary skepticism, and, at times, incredulity toward the handling of both evidence and analysis.

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Summary

"Operation Hummingbird" deconstructs the narrative around Lucy Letby’s arrest and the investigation that followed, probing the risk of confirmation bias, reliance on flawed or incomplete evidence, and the circular logic that can emerge when suspicion begets proof. Knox’s experience as a victim of wrongful conviction drives the inquiry: Was Letby targeted out of confluence of suspicion, coincidence, and statistical error rather than clear guilt? The episode ends with the ominous introduction of Letby’s own written words—potentially damning, yet contextually ambiguous—setting the stage for deeper questions about guilt, confession, and system integrity in subsequent episodes.

Transcript

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So I'm about to sit and watch the arrest of Lucy Letby. It's the first time I've seen it as I don't love to go out of my way to see people getting arrested. All right, let's see how this goes.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

In two seconds. Yes.

[Amanda Knox]

Yeah.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Thank you.

[Amanda Knox]

It's 6:00am Lucy is wearing a powder blue hoodie, matching sweatpants. She's letting the officers inside. Eleven minutes later, it's recording again and we can see Lucy being led out of the house in handcuffs. She looks just shocked. We are all seeing the same facial expression, but what meaning are we imbuing to it? Depending on what you feel about her. You think, oh, she's in shock because she's being accused of a crime she didn't commit. Or she's in shock because she thinks she, she was gonna get away with it. I don't know, Lucy. I do know that feeling of shock and just helplessness and how suddenly you go from being a regular person who has the ability to just open a door. Right? That's something that immediately is triggering for me is the memory of suddenly not having access to the world the way that a normal person has access to the world. And now the world is completely changed and shifted around. I remember the actual moment they put handcuffs on me. They. They told me that it was a mere formality. It's just a bizarre moment of change that you don't really understand going from being a free person to a person in custody, it's. There's nothing really that compares to that. It's the ultimate like being rendered small.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

I'm just going to put you in the back seat over here. Take a seat in there for me, Lucy. I'll move up to you. I just had knee surgeries. Oh, right. Okay.

[Amanda Knox]

Watching this, it brings me back to the day I was arrested. I was so in shock that I didn't even realize what was happening. It was so unfathomable to me that I could be accused that I believed the police when they told me they were taking me somewhere for my own protection. Even as the handcuffs clicked on my wrists, it still didn't click for me. It wasn't until several days later, after repeatedly crying myself to sleep in a prison cell, that I was escorted to a makeshift courtroom in the prison where a judge told me I was accused of murder. Only then did I finally understand what was happening to me. I don't know what Lucy Letby felt the day she was arrested, but in the video of her arrest released by the police, that dazed expression, it gives me chills. But for whatever confusion Lucy Letby may have been feeling, a much more straightforward narrative was starting to emerge in the media.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

A woman who worked at the Countess of Chester Hospital has been arrested on suspicion of murdering eight babies and attempting to murder another six.

[Amanda Knox]

As part of the investigation, the Cheshire police search Lucy's home, her parents house and Lucy's office at the hospital. They seize her diaries, her computer, her phone and paperwork she has stashed under her bed. What they find will become key evidence against Lucy at her trial. One item in particular seems so damning it could well be irrefutable proof that Lucy is exactly what the doctors suspect her of being a serial killer. The next day, Lucy's name and the accusations against her were will make the front page of every major newspaper, every news show and every radio broadcast. From this moment on, Lucy Letby is a character in her own life story. This is the moment Lucy loses hold of her own narrative. I'm Amanda Knotts and From Vespucci and iHeart podcasts, this is the case of Lucy Letby. Episode three Operation Hummingbird.

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[Amanda Knox]

It's been nearly two years since the death of Baby A. Doctors on the neonatal unit at the Countess feel like they are banging their heads against the wall. So far they've had two external reviews and a third is underway. But still, none of the reviews are coming to the same conclusion as the doctors.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

They're saying we've got a problem. The facts are we've had an increase in deaths and we think it's her.

[Amanda Knox]

Michelle Warden is a former neonatal nurse at the Countess. She never worked with Lucy, but she knew a lot of the people who did. And she says the doctors in charge were ready to blame Lucy very early on.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

From the first moment that they pointed the finger at Lucy, they were not thinking that Lucy had made a clinical mistake or there'd been an accident all the way along. They'd only had on average three deaths a year. They were definitely considering that this was a malicious act, I think because they were saying there were so many and saying, oh, these are unexplained collapses.

[Amanda Knox]

Just a side note for those who are not familiar in this context A collapse is a sudden deterioration in a baby's health, a drop in vital signs, a change in heart rate or if they stop breathing. For the doctors, the sheer number of deaths while Lucy Letby was on shift are looking like much more than mere coincidence. And it needed the police. But still, none of the hospital administrators agree. That is, until Dr. Jayarum tells them a story that, if true, is the firsthand account of attempted murder.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

That is a night that is etched on my memory and will be in my nightmares forever.

[Amanda Knox]

Dr. Jayram tells hospital administrators that two years prior he had walked in on Lucy watching a baby nearly suffocate to death. But a question remains. Why didn't he just call the police?

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Then he suddenly came up with this idea that he caught her virtually red handed with Baby K. But he didn't document anything in the notes and he didn't tell anybody for over 12 months. Now, if you seriously think you've walked into a nursery where somebody's about to murder a baby, you just get in your car and drive to the police station, wouldn't you?

[Amanda Knox]

After initial conversations with hospital higher ups, the police are still skeptical that there even is a case. But after receiving an email from Dr. Jayram, a detective decides to meet with the doctors.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

I met with Stephen Breary and Ravi Jayram and asked them to explain to me in the very short timescale we had why I should or should not take this forward to be investigated.

[Amanda Knox]

This is a quote from Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes of the Cheshire Constabulary, read by an actor. It's from an interview he did on a podcast hosted by the UK tabloid the Daily Mail.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Although they are very, very fragile, very delicate babies that need care, there's no expectation of death, there's no expectation of collapse.

[Amanda Knox]

Detective Hughes looks like he could be a character in a Guy Ritchie movie. He's bald, barrel chested with a close trimmed beard. He has a kind of Jason Statham vibe about him. In interviews and press conferences about the case, he wears a suit that barely contains him and a somber expression. During their initial meeting, Dr. Breary and Dr. Jaram tell Detective Hughes that although babies on the unit are fragile, one thing they don't do is die suddenly. Of course, it's not like babies never die in a neonatal unit, but the doctors explain they usually know when it's going to happen. The doctors go on to explain just how unusual these deaths were, and Detective Hughes leaves the encounter convinced there's a case. Here's Dr. Jayram during his ITV interview.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

The very fact that the Police, after listening to us for less than 10 minutes, realized that this is something that they had to be involved with, to me, speaks volumes and I could have punched the air.

[Amanda Knox]

Finally, the police open an investigation into the deaths at the Countess and codename it Operation Hummingbird. The following series of events would forever change the hospital and everyone on that unit would from staff to parents. A narrative would take hold and there was no going back from here. This is now a murder case and at the helm would be Detective Hughes as senior detective. Here he is again, this time in a promotional video put out by the police themselves.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

What I was presented with was effectively a number of reports written in medical jargon.

[Amanda Knox]

It's a lot for the detective and his team to get their heads around, but thankfully the Countess pediatricians are on hand to answer questions. When I sat down with Dr. Phil Hammond, I asked him about this moment in the investigation.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

I don't like it. In a proper scientific investigation, you'd say, okay, we're going to get someone independent to look at this.

[Amanda Knox]

If you recall, Dr. Hammond is a retired doctor and medical columnist for Private Eye, a popular current affairs magazine in Britain, and He's written over 30 articles about the Letby case.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

I think the first thing to say is that doctors are human, so we're suspect of the same biases and temptations as everything else. I think the biggest failure in that is the police allowed the doctors to investigate these deaths and mark their own homework.

[Amanda Knox]

Dr. Hammond says that it is clear the doctors wanted the police to see things their way and to ignore other issues that were plaguing the unit. He tells me about the flurry of emails the seven senior pediatricians from the Countess were sending each other right as the police investigation was getting underway.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

They're saying, you know, we've got to make sure the police act on this and we'll cut this bit out. And here are my suggestions. What are yours? And it's clearly they're gaming the information. They actually say, we want to pique the interest of the police.

[Amanda Knox]

Specifically, Dr. Jayaram writes in one of those emails, quote, should we highlight explicitly for these cases that ll was in attendance and in close proximity to the incubators? This is, after all, the basis of our concerns. And I think for the police to have their interest piqued, we need to have that.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

And I think that's just wrong. They shouldn't be investigating. But they were trusted as doctors. They were the ones who raised concerns.

[Amanda Knox]

One of the things I've had to wrap my mind around is that good People make mistakes. The consultants like even the doctors who were sort of cherry picking information to make it palatable to the police, they were going off of a what seems like a gut feeling and out of concern for patients.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

I think in my interactions with Dr. J.R.M. when I first started investigating this, he appeared to me to be very genuine in his beliefs. However, they spun the information, they removed bits about the babies being really sick and them not having enough staff.

[Amanda Knox]

Detective Hughes felt the doctor's help was so invaluable that he would go on to publicly praise their contributions. In an interview with the Observer, Hughes is quoted as saying the doctors were the golden thread of the investigation. But it wouldn't be accurate or fair to say that detectives based their entire investigation on the information provided by the doctors. Far from it. In fact, Operation Hummingbird doesn't truly kick off until detectives are introduced to a completely different doctor. A doctor who's never set foot in the Countess of Chester Hospital, but one who becomes independent, indispensable to the investigation. He's the man reporters would take to calling the Welsh Wizard.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Dear Amanda, I enclose a letter I sent to Private Eye yesterday.

[Amanda Knox]

This is an email I received from Dr. Dowie Evans last year, read by an actor. I had been briefly corresponding with him in October of 2024 and again in 2026, but he never responded to giving me a formal interview. But that didn't stop him from sharing his thoughts via email.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Dr. Hammond has no experience of medico legal practice and as far as I know, has no pediatric or neonatology experience. He's best known as a stand up comedian and writes for satirical magazine Private Eye.

[Amanda Knox]

As you can tell, he's not Dr. Hammond's biggest fan.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

The Eye is not really qualified to engage on matters as sensitive and complicated as the murder of little babies.

[Amanda Knox]

Dr. Evans is in his 70s, a grandfather living out his retirement in his beloved Welsh countryside. He has white hair, fair complexion, gold rimmed glasses and a rotating supply of cardigans. Early one Sunday morning in 2017, an article in the Sunday paper catches his attention and in true Dr. Evans fashion, he's inspired to fire off an email. Dear Nick, Nick is a contact at the National Crime Agency, a sort of clearinghouse that connects expert witnesses with police departments.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

I've read about the high death rate for babies in Chester and that the police are investigating. Do they have a pediatric neonatal contact? I was involved in neonatal medicine for 30 years.

[Amanda Knox]

Dr. Evans has been out of clinical practice for nearly a decade, but he keeps busy by working as an expert witness, mainly on cases of medical malpractice and child abuse.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

If the Chester police have no one in mind, I'd be interested to help. Sounds like my kind of case.

[Amanda Knox]

The police agree. Dr. Evans begins work on Operation Hummingbird as an expert witness in the summer of 2017. Here he is talking on the Raj Prasad in Conversation podcast.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

I said if you suspect somebody or you suspect some people, don't. I don't want to know. This is July 2017. What I need is to get the notes of every baby who's died and every baby who's collapsed from January 2015 to July 2016. Not just the suspicious ones or the ones you can't explain. I want all of them.

[Amanda Knox]

That attitude, he goes on to say, allowed him to approach the task of investigating in a completely unbiased way. But the records from the police investigation, the ones detailing Dr. Evans involvement in the case, they tell a different story, according to Dr. Hammond.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

And he said, within 10 minutes of looking at the notes of the baby, I knew this was inflicted harm and the police thought, oh, and it was his certainty.

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[Amanda Knox]

what you're chasing because you've always had the drive. Now go earn the degree.

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[Amanda Knox]

As long as there have been police and investigations, there has been tunnel vision. Tunnel vision is when investigators get so focused on one theory, they may inadvertently ignore or even deliberately suppress evidence that doesn't fit. You can think of it as a species of confirmation bias, the human tendency to look for evidence that confirms an established belief that or favored theory and to discount evidence that contradicts it. It's a very dangerous problem, one that is at the heart of many wrongful convictions, including mine. Even after the true perpetrator's DNA was identified in and on the body of my roommate, the investigators and the prosecutor, who already believed I was somehow involved, ignored exonerating evidence, like the fact that none of my DNA was ever found in the room where the murder occurred. But they also magnified the importance of irrelevant evidence, like the fact that my DNA was found in the bathroom, the bathroom I used every day. It was tempting to think at the time that they were simply out to railroad me, no matter the cost. But I've learned to see that malice isn't necessary to explain that behavior.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Justice can make mistakes because the machinery is run by human beings, and human beings make mistakes.

[Amanda Knox]

John Sweeney from episode one. The former war correspondent with the unruly dog. He has done a very deep dive into the investigation into Lucy Letby's case.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

I do not believe that the police did a proper job when they took the advice of an expert who knocked on their door.

[Amanda Knox]

John says that from the very beginning, Lucy was the person at the end of the tunnel. And those with the power to accuse her, charge her, and then prosecute her saw nothing and no one else. And he believes that included their star witness, Dr. Evans, aka the Welsh Wizard.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Essentially, the statistics don't make sense. They're wrong. The idea of somebody being locked up, the idea of me being locked up for a crime that didn't happen or that you're entirely innocent of, that's. That's a terrible, terrible thing. And what happens if they're wrong. What happens if the doctors have improperly excluded other alternative explanations?

[Amanda Knox]

John believes that Dr. Evans only helped reinforce the police's tunnel vision, that he was irresponsible with the way he interpreted the evidence supplied by investigators, especially the information gathered that showed Lucy was at work for every suspicious incident.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

You know, you've got to be quite careful with the statistics of it.

[Amanda Knox]

John Sweeney is not the only one with that opinion. This is Dr. Jane Hutton, a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

I've been interested in mathematics for a long time and also in using mathematics to address problems in the real world.

[Amanda Knox]

Dr. Hutton, like Dr. Evans, was hired by the Cheshire Police to consult with their investigation into Lucy Letby.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

The first I knew, but for sort of background noise, was in about April 2018, when I was asked to get involved.

[Amanda Knox]

Dr. Hutton recalls that investigators were asking her to find numbers that fit their theory.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Their initial thing was, we'd like you to help us understand the statistical issues and we would like you to calculate a probability of one member of staff being present. Can you come up with a figure of something like one in a million for probability of somebody being on duty? So I said, well, that's completely the wrong way to do it.

[Amanda Knox]

That's like asking a fingerprint analyst, can you come up with an explanation for why these two prints match, instead of asking them to determine if they are a match or not? As Dr. Hutton goes on to explain, when it comes to the neonatal unit and infant deaths, finding a cause of death isn't always straightforward. For Dr. Hutton, looking at neonatal deaths is a bit like being asked to explain the exact cause of death of a very old person.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

You know, it can be slightly tricky to think, was it the kidneys or the liver or the lungs or the heart or the brain, so you don't always get a very clear cause. And also, if you're going to talk about an unexpected collapse of anybody in intensive care, you're in intensive care because you're seriously ill and unstable.

[Amanda Knox]

And as Hutton says, the babies in the Countess neonatal unit were sick babies.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

The best you can be is stable. Contrary to what was said in the trial that the babies were. Well, if they were well, they were taking up places they didn't need.

[Amanda Knox]

Dr. Hutton adds that the information she was given on the babies who died or collapsed was not only insufficient, but also incomplete.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

For example, all the deaths and look at all the factors of the deaths, and then you might say, okay, we want to look at twins who didn't die or we want to look at triplets who didn't die or so on. So you've got a comparison group.

[Amanda Knox]

Without all the needed information, rigorously and properly collected, Dr. Hutton could not determine anything.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

So I basically said, that is not what I will do because that is the wrong thing to do. I can tell you what the correct approach is, and I did at some meetings, discussing the correct approach, what was needed and so on.

[Amanda Knox]

I'll be the first to admit that my brain isn't wired for math and statistics. But even I can tell you you don't need a PhD in statistics to understand what was lacking here. Basically, Hutton needed a bigger sample size. She needed more information on the babies and their mothers, the pregnancies and the outcomes. For Hutton, cherry picking the evidence that way is a recipe for tunnel vision.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

You need to interpret them correctly. You need to be very aware of cognitive bias and the risks of bias in people looking for evidence.

[Amanda Knox]

But Dr. Hutton says her warnings seemed to fall on deaf ears.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

And then essentially it went quiet. And I would get the odd trickle of, oh, we're waiting for the Crime Prosecution Service. They might have different views about evidence, so just went silent.

[Amanda Knox]

In fact, the next time Dr. Hutton heard anything substantial about the Lucy Letby case was when Letby was arrested.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

You don't start by assuming that there's murder when you have no evidence.

[Amanda Knox]

Doctor Hutton might have had real trouble with the task she was given by the police, but Dr. Dowie Evans, he would go on to be the prosecution star witness. Just before the trial, the doctors at the Countess helped police piece together a graph. On one side of the graph, the babies who had collapsed or died. On the other, a list of the nurses on staff. And right down the middle, under Lucy's name, a column of X's. She was there for every single suspicious incident. But for Dr. Hutton, that graph proved nothing.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Well, all the graph shows is Letby was present when she was present. It doesn't actually show you anything other than that.

[Amanda Knox]

You know, one thing that this, this raises is the question of why Lucy, Why are they targeting her? I'm back speaking with journalist John Sweeney. Is it just because she's conveniently a young woman who's there at the wrong place at the wrong time? Like, why are the police willing to assume, you know, criminal intent or criminal fault, criminal wrongdoing? I mean, and I ask this also from a very personal place, right, because I also, you know, to this day, am like, why me? What was it about me that, like, made the entire world think that I was some Kind of insane murder orgy. Why? Why?

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

So what happens with Lucy is I think she's just like you were. You were very unlucky and I think she was very unlucky and she was the wrong woman in the wrong place. And then you've got the police. Now the police, like nailing mass murderers, you've learned from bitter experience. So you've got to come out and you've got to come out fighting. You do, because otherwise you.

[Amanda Knox]

The narrative is this boulder that rolls down the hill and you can't stop it the more momentum it gets. It's true. It's fair to ask why Lucy was the target. From our work and other investigations into her case, it's clear there are problems with the investigation. And the tunnel vision of the police seems obvious, but not completely unfounded. Even if it didn't prove that she was guilty, Lucy was in the wrong place at the wrong time a lot. And I can see how that might give rise to suspicion. And there was more, because on the day that the police searched Lucy's house and office, they discovered something that seemed like definitive proof of her guilt. On post it notes on sheets of paper and in her diaries were words and scribbles written by Lucy that pointed to the evil the police believed lived inside the young nurse.

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

Basically, here's a note saying, I don't deserve to live. I killed them on purpose because I'm not good enough to care for them. And then in capital letters, leaping out at you, I am evil. I did this. That's a very striking visual piece of evidence for the jury. So we got that very early on.

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And of course you look at that

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

and you think, ah, well, this could be game over already here. You know, this person's literally confessed to what she's done.

[Amanda Knox]

Next on Doubt the case of Lucy Letby. Physical evidence cannot lie. Insulin testing from this laboratory should not be used as evidence of poisoning.

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They knew that what they were doing

[Amanda Knox]

was not the proper way and should not be used as evidence in the

[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

case, but yet they did it anyway. And then finally, judge comes in. All rise. We all stand up and that's, that's the start of the court day. Here was a woman accused of the. The murders of seven babies. You were going to see her. In.

[Amanda Knox]

The case of Lucy Letby is brought to you by Vespucci Iheart Podcasts and Knox Robinson Productions. I've been your host, Amanda Knox. This episode was written by Clusy de Oliveira, Kathleen Goldhar and Natalia Rodriguez. The co producers were Clusy de Oliveira and Lucy Ditchmont. The assistant producer was Ami Gill. Senior producer is Natalia Rodriguez. Audio mix by Tom Biddle. The theme music was written by Tom Biddle. Story editing by Kathleen Goldhar. Legal advice was provided by Jack Browning. The producers at iHeart Podcasts are Chandler Mays and Katrina Norville. The executive producers were Joe Meek, Amanda Knox, Christopher Robinson, Daniel Turkin and Johnny Galvin. Thank you for listening.

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[Amanda Knox]

schedule sounds like this.

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[Amanda Knox]

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[Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes]

So drive into Take five and let

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