Loading summary
Transcript103 lines
- [00:02]
A
All right. Good morning, Doug. We're back with questions from our subscribers. If you would like to ask Doug a question, the best thing to do is subscribe@crisisinvesting.com Doug, you were just telling me about this podcast you watched before we get to questions yesterday with our friend Mike Ferris at Coffee and a mic. What you were saying about that.
- [00:25]
B
Yeah, well, who's got time to listen to all the podcasts that are out there? It's like a full time job, you know, it's like if you listen to podcasts all day, you don't have a life, frankly.
- [00:37]
A
That's true.
- [00:37]
B
Yeah, but, so, but I did take an hour and 20 minutes to listen to On Coffee and a Mic because he had a chap named Ted Postle who's an MIT professor and he's quite expert when it comes to weapons and war histories and all this type of thing. And I listened to it for an hour and 15 minutes at double speed, which is, I think, how you should listen to most podcasts. And it was excellent, guys. A wealth of knowledge. And that was one. So I actually learned some hard facts, number one. And number two, he was cogent and he was a critical thinker and I agreed with basically 100% of everything he said. And to give you the bottom line, he looks at this war as being an unmitigated catastrophe that's going to end badly, which is kind of my bottom line too.
- [01:42]
A
Yeah. And we've been talking about the last few times we've gotten together is like people don't recognize yet the disaster it's going to be. And I don't know what it'll take for people to wake up to it.
- [01:52]
B
Yeah, yeah. What will it take? Will it take the Israelis dropping an A bomb on, on Tehran or something like that? Well, who knows?
- [02:05]
A
Yeah. Or, or they, or that they, their flight gets canceled because they can't get jet fuel for it, or they show up to the pump and they, it's not their day, they return with their license plate number. Know it takes something like that, I think, before people wake up.
- [02:21]
B
Yeah. There's a big adjustment to go on. And just the fact that the world does run on petroleum and petroleum prices go up, it jams the prices. Well, if the, if it's true, and I suspect it is true, that the average guy in America has zero savings and is living from paycheck to paycheck, what happens when he loses his job and all the prices have gone up as a result of this stupid war? Well, I don't Know, do we have enough bridges to accommodate all these people to sleep under when they lose their houses?
- [03:02]
A
I think people don't understand the economic calamity that's coming our way. I think that's. They just can't see it yet and aren't doing anything while they still can to prepare for it. Unfortunately, yeah.
- [03:12]
B
I mean, we've dodged the bullet a number of times in the past. Will we be able to dodge this bullet? I don't know, because it's not like we've had any competent presidents at all. But I'm afraid that Trump is. I think he's over the edge, frankly. I mean, reading his tweets, I mean, they're actually ravings of a crazy guy. I mean, I've just got to say it. And the fact that it's not just what he says, it's the fact that he capitalizes things here and there in the other place. You know, this is, this is not only saying I don't understand the English language, but it's saying I'm psychologically unstable. People that do that type of thing.
- [04:02]
A
Yeah, well, you say we haven't. Whether we'll not dodge the bullet. Seems to me this dot. This bullet is much more like a nuke coming to us, you know, coming our way and that. You can run away, but it won't matter how far you go, it's going to hit you. I mean, it's so big. I don't think people understand the economic consequences. Forget about assuming the war is all settled. It gets settled magically, somehow. The economic consequences are so massive, I, I don't think they can be avoided.
- [04:31]
B
No. It's going to readjust the world economy. I just totally readjusted. And. And it's like a kid's kaleidoscope. You know, when the kid turns his kaleidoscope quarter turn, it's all going to look different, but you don't know how it's going to look different. It's unpredictable. Even though you know all the little pieces that are there, you don't know how they're going to realign.
- [04:52]
A
Right. Yeah. Well, they say like petroleum is in. Is like 45,000 products, you know, every.
- [05:00]
B
Absolutely everything.
- [05:04]
A
So. So that makes it impossible to predict. But it's going to be chaos. It's coming, so get ready. Okay. Doug, it's getting these questions. The first one is how does the expected serious increase in energy prices affect the probability of mining operation or, sorry, profitability of mining operations?
- [05:24]
B
You did a little bit of research in that when we Were talking earlier and of course, mining diesel, it's all about diesel is the biggest single ongoing expense for mining operations, for talking about hard costs. And so diesel's doubled and what's that going to do for all in sustaining costs? What did you come up with, like 10 to 15%?
- [05:54]
A
Yeah, it was 10. The range was 10 to 25%, depending upon the particular mine. You know, if it's above ground or underground, is it copper or gold? But 10 to 25% increase in ASIC costs?
- [06:08]
B
Yeah. So not good. But the margins are so high with goldware. Does it where it is right now? I don't think it's anything to worry about.
- [06:21]
A
Okay. All right. So if you wanted to start up a new business or service today, how would you determine what people want? Well, I'll just say that the easiest thing to do with this is to look at pain that people have or problems that people have. Don't even think about wants, think about needs. Like what. What problems do people actually have? Or which problems do you personally experience as you get a little older, this is better. As you start to have and you start having extra money, you realize the different pain points in your life and focus on solving those pain points. I think that's the easiest way to pick a service or product for a new business. What do you think, Doug?
- [07:07]
B
Yeah, I completely agree. And I would supplement that with what service? If you pinpoint that, is it one that you can effectively provide? And I'd once again draw people's attention back to our book, the preparation, so that you're in a position. If you do what we say in the preparation, hopefully when you're college age or high school age, you're in a position to do something about the things that you find that you pointed out.
- [07:41]
A
Okay, Doug, if you were to start your investing journey today from scratch in the current market environment, how would you approach it?
- [07:51]
B
It's perverse. I approach it exactly the way I did when I was starting out. And when I was starting out, I got involved in resource stocks and mining and oil and gas, all that kind of thing. Because those things were really cheap way back then, and now they're really cheap again. It's like the clock has come around full circle. So I guess that's the area I get involved in. The only caveat I'd offer is that you don't want to stay in one place forever. Well, I haven't, but, you know, I should have blossomed out further faster into other areas of the market. You don't want to become A one trick pony because the market moves on.
- [08:46]
A
Right. Especially with resources because they're so cyclical.
- [08:49]
B
Right, exactly.
- [08:50]
A
You want to go somewhere else when it's in the down cycle.
- [08:54]
B
But, but right now, because they're so cyclical and they're at a low of cyclicality, I, that's where I would be. I, I wouldn't try to get into. Well, maybe you get into AI because for it's going to change the world, but as an investor, no, I'm totally uninterested in it.
- [09:15]
A
Right. Okay. And all Doug, in all your international travel over the years, could you talk about your top most dangerous encounters and how, how you made it out of the situation?
- [09:30]
B
I've actually thought about that a number of times in the past and it occurs to me that Americans are, have come to think that the rest of the world is dangerous. You got all these crazy people that, you know, dress with rags around their heads and stuff like that and you know, carry guns, you know, on the streets and all that. All this is true. But I, the truth of the matter is I've only had, as I thought back about it, encounters with other people, the, the local indigenous. Was it dangerous? Yeah, two times really kind of scared me. One time was in Haiti when we were driving at night, not in Port au Prince, but on the way to Capahn actually. And we went through a checkpoint and Jesus, these, these, you know, these stupid Haitian soldiers, they all pointed their guns at us and slammed on the brakes and that was scary because, you know, these are, you know, primitive people that are scared. It's a night after all, you know, who are we? So that was one and the other time was kind of edgy. Was. Is one time I was in the Congo in Katanga and there were a bunch of young Congolese soldiers hanging around and I think they were all on dope of some type because their eyelids were drooping and they were, you know, and you don't know what they're going to do to a couple of mzungos that are there now we're wearing suits, which is good, which means we're probably politically corrected and these guys would think twice about that. But you know, these, these guys, you know, the armies in these third world countries are more dangerous than common street criminals because they actually think that, well, they actually have power and they can get away with shit. The street criminals can't. So nothing happened there. But you know my friend Bo Keely, do you know Bo, if you've met him?
- [11:41]
A
Yeah, yeah, I don't, I haven't met him, but I've, I do know who he is and I've read some of his stuff.
- [11:46]
B
Yeah, so he's a professional hobo and he's been all around the world, backpacking, riding trains. He rides trains everywhere. In fact, you know, the two train trips that I took were with him. So. And one thing that he, he, and this is probably the only thing that was really serious in his. And he, he's hanging out at the lower ranks, the lower levels of society. I mean, where all the crumb bums and the losers are. And he was in a, he was in a sleazy bar in Venezuela. He's obviously the gringo. And a guy walks up to him with a, you know, a knife and holds it on him and starts, you know, poking around in his clothing looking for money that the gringos got hidden. So it cost him, cost him all or most of his money. And it was dangerous because, you know, who, who knows what kind of a psychopath you were dealing with. But he's been everywhere in the lowest realms of society. And that's the only really dangerous thing that's happened to him. And those are the only really dangerous things that have happened to me. And other dangerous things have happened, a number of them. But they were because of my own stupidity and positions that I put myself in which I shouldn't have done. I mean, like on mining trips, I. God, walking across bamboo bridges with I. I mean, I must have been crazy. Anyway, don't worry about it. You're not going to be in any more danger abroad than you are in the US Basically, is my view.
- [13:40]
A
Okay, outside of betting on early stage holes in the hole in the ground companies, what are the downsides of doing private placements? We talk about private place placements a lot. We share some of the private placements that you do. It's a big part of your investment strategy. We share them with our VIP subscribers. But what's the downside of these private placements?
- [14:02]
B
Well, they're illiquid for four months, generally speaking. So you buy it, you got to hold it for four months. And that can be scary sometimes and your money's tied up for that period of time. The other thing is, is when you're doing a private placement, the company's raising money. Well, why is it raising money? Because it needs money. And it's dangerous giving money to companies that need money. That's a real big risk of the mining business in general. So. But you're rewarded, on the other hand by being able to buy the Stock at a discount, sometimes meaningful. And also you get a warrant which doubles your profit, assuming that things work out the way you'd like.
- [14:56]
A
Right. So like the typical deal, if you buy something at 20 cents a share, then you might get a warrant which is a right to buy in the future for up to a year, two or three years, it depends. For 30 cents or something like that.
- [15:10]
B
Yeah, exactly. It varies. Yeah, that's a big deal. That's a massive bonus to do and that's why I do it. Take the risk.
- [15:22]
A
Got it. Okay. Doug, what's the biggest opportunity regarding the Iran war? Such as the affected commodities like oil, gas, fertilizer, farmers, food production, like the corn. Bet. I'm looking for the most asymmetric bat, extreme upside potential with little downside risk.
- [15:46]
B
Yeah, I don't know. I have a friend from Lithuania. I ought to reach out to him because he was interested and I think he has gone to Iran a number of times to size things up and see actually what is happening on the ground because we don't get any on the ground information from Iran. It's like, it's, it's like an information blackout. We don't know what's going on at all.
- [16:14]
A
And not just in Iran. You could say the same thing of Israel and UAE and everywhere else. Like they all.
- [16:20]
B
That's right. All these, all these countries have locked down their communication. It will put you in jail if you're seen taking pictures or transmitting stuff over the Internet. It's, it's absolutely horrible. So, and once again I think about, you know, one of my great regrets in life is when I had a chance, and I did, to go with the New Zealand ambassadors polo team on a junket to Iran where we were going to play polo in three Iranian cities. And that would have been fantastic to, you know, take a really close look at Iran. Get, get to meet the kind of people that play polo in Iran and, and so forth. So anyway, any country, any country where they play polo seriously is. It's got to be not that bad. So, you know, I can't. Listen, if you, if you say anything kind about Iran or anything that's not actively hostile towards Iran, I mean you can get a lot of trouble in the US now, but they're just the devil of the month. That's all. That's what I think. All this.
- [17:29]
A
And there's not, is there? But you don't see any obvious like trading opportunity with it. There's nothing that jumps out. I mean, you've talked about oil stocks before and You've talked about corn, you know, that investment in corn, but there's not anything really that jumps out to you in this super chaotic environment. And it's the weird market response so far that stands out to you?
- [17:54]
B
No, there's not, other than the things we've talked about. And the reason is, is that we don't have any first hand knowledge about what's going on there.
- [18:06]
A
Okay, next question. They asked if, they said in our next chat if they might explore some of the implications, slash predictions of what Professor John suggests in this recent interview. Shared the interview and I know you only watched a little bit of it, but do you have any impressions on this Professor Jean?
- [18:28]
B
And yeah, he's a. I guess he's an American professor of Chinese.
- [18:35]
A
Canadian. Canadian, yeah.
- [18:37]
B
Anyway, I've listened to one of his presentations in the past and I was very impressed and haven't listened to his conversation with Tucker, so I don't know what he said, but I did listen to the first two minutes of it where he kind of sums up his bottom line. And his bottom line is that this war is going to go on for a long time. And that's my opinion too. I mean, Americans have gotten into the habit of thinking that, oh, wars, oh, I know, that's like Grenada, we were there for like four days or, or like Panama, you know, I don't think so. This, this is, this is hunting big game. So. And, and these Iranians are mightily, mightily pissed off and for very good reason, historically and currently. And they're not just going to roll over. And even if Trump walks away, it takes two to tango. And I think it was Nietzsche that said you may not be interested in war. Speaking about Trump, maybe he's not interested in war anymore since it's turned into a clusterfuck, but war is still interested in you. So he's gonna have to deal with this now for we're gonna have to deal with his stupidity for years. Because starting this war, which was criminal, I mean, a surprise attack during negotiations, what kind of stupidity is that? Anyway, that's what John was talking about, I think.
- [20:13]
A
Yeah, it's weird. You, I guess you do it to gain some small tactical advantage, but what do you cost yourself and strategic advantage by doing something like that? The sneak attack.
- [20:25]
B
Yeah, yeah. Whose idea was that? Was it Trump or Hexith or maybe was Kristi Noam. Maybe it was her idea or Netanyahu's or maybe. Yeah, very probably. In fact, almost certainly. I mean, this war is all about Israel getting rid of their Last, their last remaining state adversary in the Middle east, and they can't really do it. So. Yeah, yeah, we'll. We'll have our. Our big Satan do it.
- [20:58]
A
Yeah. Well, they've already announced if there is a ground invasions, the Israeli army will not participate.
- [21:05]
B
Well, first things first, after all.
- [21:11]
A
All right, questions for Matt. It says you've had past success in the music royalty business. Could you talk about the success and that it's still a good. Is it still a good business to get into today? Well, what I did is I created a platform called Royalty Exchange where people can buy and sell royalty streams. So that's what the business was that I created. But as far as music royalties themselves, I think that they're amazing. I mean, I own some of the Dire Straits catalog, for instance, which has been a fantastic investment for me, generating a lot of income. So I think they're good. But it's very. It's a very niche thing. And frankly, I don't know if there's many other ways to even get involved with music royalties other than through royalty exchange. It's just very hard to find these. These kinds of deals anywhere else. So that's my answer.
- [22:03]
B
Ah, Dire Straits. One of my very favorite rock bands.
- [22:07]
A
Yeah. Well, it's amazing. They've been disbanded for 35 years and their royalties still go up in value, I mean, generate in their income generation. So it's kind of amazing. So, Doug, what's your take on the neighborhood country, Brazil, and what's the outlook for that country?
- [22:25]
B
Well, I've been there half a dozen times, been through most of Brazil. A lot of Brazil. A lot of Brazil, not most of it. It's a giant country. And my opinion is that Brazil really should break up into at least two, maybe three or four different countries by region and ethnicity, because Northeast Brazil is totally different in every way from the south of Brazil or Sao Paulo is. So I like Brazil. I mean, it's. I'm a fan. But you. You go there quite a bit, Matt. So you got.
- [23:10]
A
Yeah, I just go to Sao Paulo. It's just big city, so it's got amenities that we don't have here in Uruguay. But, I mean, the crime is real there. You have to be alert, you know, for basic street crime, because it's definitely there. And, you know, I hear people complain about the government a lot there. The government's. The bureaucracy of doing anything seems to be pretty massive. You know, sometimes it's hard for us to pay people in Brazil for things, you know, when we're there. Just because the capital controls or however they have their system set up is so bureaucratic and Byzantine really to get through. I think it makes it kind of a hard, definitely a hard place to do business, but. And there's a lot of discontent with the government. I mean they have, they have a really strong like left, right split, kind of like in the US where there's these major divisions which maybe sows the seeds for what you're talking about the place breaking up into multiple parts in the future.
- [24:09]
B
Yeah. Anyway, I, it's. If you're going to travel to South America, try to put Brazil on your, I hate to say bucket list, but it's worthwhile seeing.
- [24:23]
A
Yeah. And as an American, you will need a visa though, because, you know, it's, they do make it a little harder for Americans to visit because the, the US Requires Brazilians to have a visa if they visit the US and so Brazil reciprocates and says, all right, bringing do that to us, then we'll do it the same to you. It's not a hard process, but you have to do it.
- [24:45]
B
Yeah, well, travel's I think going to get harder, at least cyclically all over the world with visas and expenses and international dust ups between countries. So personally, I'm glad I've seen the world for what that's worth, when it was pretty easy.
- [25:05]
A
I think the golden age of consumer travel is past us at this point.
- [25:12]
B
I think it has, yeah.
- [25:15]
A
All right. Doug, do you think that Covid made people more skeptical of vaccines or just more likely to question what they're told, like with travel vaccines, etc.
- [25:27]
B
Well, as those who have listened to our conversations for some time know, I have a, a low opinion of my fellow humans when they are aggregated into a mobs, certainly. And yeah, I guess so because the, because you know, these turbo cancers and these heart attacks and various other things that have happened to young people from out of, you know, this is anomalous. I mean people, some people have got to be asking themselves if there's a cause and effect with the great vaccine. Hysteria, Covid hysteria.
- [26:11]
A
They should. But I can't think of a single person that I know or that I've seen publicly who was vaccinated yet say that it was a mistake. You know, I mean, there have been some vaccine injured people, I guess, that have said this, that, not that I know all the ones I know are vaccine injured can actually make the connection for some reason between two things.
- [26:33]
B
So yeah, it's certainly, it's certainly not a, not a groundswell yet so. And listen, you go places and there are Americans that are still wearing masks to this day, like a kind of a totem that primitive people would wear to magically defend them.
- [27:01]
A
Yeah, I think the people who might have been on the had some vaccine skepticism just a little bit even. I think those people are totally reinforced and radicalized in their position. But I'm not sure that like the 70 or 80% of people who are vaccinated have fundamentally changed their views in any way. I haven't seen any evidence of that anyway.
- [27:24]
B
No. Well, they're NPCs, so what do you expect?
- [27:28]
A
Sad to say. All right, so this is kind of a next one, is kind of a commentary on the recommendation we gave about corn. He says, I farm and I farm in the Midwest US and worked for deer. There are 95 million acres of corn growing every year. It's what I call a fake industry. Corn and its downstream markets are virtually 100% subsidized. It's a socialist play to control land and launder money into the industrial agricultural complex. Corn is an industrial commodity, not food in any sense. They can't find enough places to stuff it. You'll find it in building insulation and kitty litter. By USDA's reports, 40% goes to the completely subsidized ethanol market, 22% goes to other industrial uses and high fructose corn syrup. The amount that goes to live livestock feed is unknown because they throw it in the other category that makes up the rest. Corn is a terrible investment. When USD collapses, the ethanol industry will collapse and other industrial uses of corn will easily switch for livestock feed. It's just a filler and has no nutritional value anymore. It's destroyed most of America's most fertile farmland in rural communities. That's my take. What do you think?
- [28:46]
B
Total, total agreement, total agreement with his analysis of this. I mean, it's absolutely criminal what the US government has done to farmers and corn in particular. So I think all of the facts that he stated are worthwhile repeating because they're correct. But on the other hand, the government's not going to disenvolve itself from, from this industrialized vegetable. And it's funny, the average American who knows who's way off the farm and hasn't been near a farm for his whole life, when he thinks about corn, he thinks about the sweet corn that you buy down at the Safeway and that's not the corn we're talking about out there in the fields that is turned into ethanol, which is an idiotic uneconomic disastrous for the engines that it's put into. It's awful. I mean the Brazilians run a lot of their cars on ethanol but it's from sugar cane and it's. It actually from an economic sense because sugar cane is one thing, corn something else. Tropical area, non tropical area. And anyway the government's so involved. Everything he said is absolutely correct. But I'm into, I'm for buying corn and actually all of the, all of it, the whole thing. I. Rice, soybeans, wheat. I think they're all going to go way up in the future. So corn, I think something that I like in particular because it's, it needs fertilizer. Soybeans don't so much so which means
- [30:39]
A
it's gonna be more scarce.
- [30:40]
B
Yeah, I, I agree. So that's comment but what were you going to say Matt? Because yeah. Foreign country too.
- [30:49]
A
Yeah. If he started off asking if you've ever driven through the Midwest during the summer and I know you have and you know I grew up there so. And it's total and it's. The corn has expanded so much in this mono crop monstrosity compared to what it used to be when I grew up there. But the thing is like even just the other day the US government signed a waiver that essentially allows them to increase the ethanol component in gasoline to 15 so to E15 for me 10 so that, that the way they're actually planning to handle part of this fuel crisis that is coming our way is by putting in more ethanol. So not to say it's stupid and it should collapse and maybe ultimately it will, but I don't think in the near term there's any chance of it.
- [31:40]
B
Yeah. And just parenthetical comment is if you have a choice of using E10 or E15 gas for your car or not, don't because it's, it's very bad for the running parts of your engine that come in contact with it. Foreign
- [32:06]
A
with the looming possibility of escalation when the war with Iran, it makes me wonder about the best methods of avoiding a government issued draft. What would you recommend is the best draft avoidance methods for Americans of normal means? Was this something you had to deal with for any Vietnam War?
- [32:22]
B
Yeah, we all had to deal with it during the Vietnam War. But the way I got around it was that listen, I was signed up for the Marine PLC program. That's how stupid I was. But two things happened. Number one, when I took my draft physical which is a degrading experience, I was 1y because of problems with one knee and a broken femur previously. Anyway, so I, I was only eligible to be drafted in the event of a national emergency. I wasn't 1A or 4F, 1Y was in between. And the other thing was, and this is really kind of funny, it was a leap year. There were 366 days in it. And my number in the draft lottery was 365 out of 366.
- [33:25]
A
Wow, that's a lucky draw.
- [33:28]
B
I had aces back to back. So, yeah, so I got, I got lucky.
- [33:35]
A
Yeah. And I think you got to wait and see what the rules are, exactly what the policies are before you can even think of a strategy to deal with it. Just have to wait and see. Hopefully it doesn't happen. So, Doug, the next question is, for the folks that are close to retirement age and have been saving for retirement by means of a 401k, what would you recommend they do to avoid losing everything in the oncoming economic collapse? Many don't want to pull money out early as they'll be penalized. What do you think?
- [34:05]
B
God, it's funny, even if you're successful in your 401k where you're dividends and interest and capital gains compound tax free, while it's still in there, when you withdraw it, you're going to pay, I don't know, it depends on your tax bracket. 35% plus a 10%. So you're going to give half of, half of what you've been saying to the government. It's perverse.
- [34:31]
A
Yeah, it's a tough decision to make. I mean, lose 45% in early withdrawal because you're trying to avoid capital controls of some kind or it's, yeah, it's a tough decision.
- [34:42]
B
I don't know, it's, it's, it's, it's funny. Trump said, I mean, Trump says all these things he used to, they get people excited. Says, I want to get rid of the income tax. We can, we can get rid of the income tax. Remember he said that, of course, the
- [35:02]
A
IRS we're going to get rid of.
- [35:04]
B
Yes, of course. And it's possible if you cut government spending by, you know, 80%. Yeah, you could, in fact, and, but he shoots his mouth off without thinking about anything. He's such a, an enthusiastic liar. I mean, it's actually shameful anyway. Look, I don't know how you solve these problems. It's a tax problem you got. I can't speak to that.
- [35:35]
A
All right, let's see. Does Doug think that Trump's plan to devalue the dollar, revalue gold prices and potentially lose the global reserve currency status. Do you think that's still the plan says a lot has changed. Doge seems to no longer in the picture. And then we have the attack on Iran.
- [35:58]
B
Those. It's like we've got an anti Doge going on with spending expanding, not decreasing. What do you think? I think the situation is hopeless at this point.
- [36:17]
A
Yeah. And listen, whether you think it's is planned necessarily or not, so take it one by one, devalue the dollar. Well, that's the only thing that can be done. Right. That's the only tool the government has.
- [36:30]
B
That's right.
- [36:32]
A
So that's happening now. Whether or not they fix the dollar to a gold price in the future or not. The dollar is being revalued in gold as we speak. And while it's down from a ties, it's still, you know, a lot higher than it was when he came into office. So that seems to be happening. And then the global reserve currency status because there was a lot of arguments by the Trump administration about the burdens of the reserve currency, the Triffin's dilemma and all that, that it wasn't all just a, it wasn't all 100% benefit to the U.S. that's, that's the case his economic advisors were making. And so there was thoughts that, you know, maybe they don't want to be reserve currency status, you know, so it does seem like we are losing the reserve currency status little by little, chipped away because you have this. Even the whole, the whole system is based upon the petrodollar system which, you know, required that dollars are, you have to have dollars to buy oil. And then the beneficiaries of those oil sales would then reinvest those dollars into the treasury market and later the stock market. And that seems to get, that seems to be really clogged up right now simply by the fact that the major nations doing that participating in it are not able to sell their oil now at the same level. So they don't have the dollars to recycle back into Treasuries or back into the stock market. So that is chipping away at the reserve currency status, isn't it?
- [38:07]
B
Yes, it is. On top of the fact that they don't want to buy Treasuries, they want to get rid of their Treasuries. They can see them as being hot potatoes. So that's all falling apart. And the reserve currency status of the dollar has been massively abused by the US where we Print up trillions of dollars and give them to the nice foreigners. We give them that paper and they give us Mercedes and Sony's and cocaine and other stuff that we buy from abroad. But they're not gonna, that's gonna go away. It's like if, if you're a Brazilian and tried to do that. Nobody wants Brazilian Reals. I mean they're good in Brazil, but really nowhere else. And the US is going to be that way too. So the US is going to go, the world is going to go back to gold because none of these governments can or should trust each other. Their, their fiat paper currencies. That's what's going to happen.
- [39:07]
A
Okay, that's too bad. Doug, Would it make sense to take profits on numismatics when the time is right? They don't hold any emotional attachment. I want to take some profits on the next leg up. Is there any reason to keep them long term?
- [39:24]
B
Is there going to be a next leg up? I'm not sure of that because we were talking about this before and it's that kids don't collect coins anymore because coins really are just slugs. They don't exist really. We're going out of circulation everywhere in the world. So the habit of collecting coins is pretty much a dead duck. And the same for stamps. You know, stamps are. Nobody uses them, nobody cares about them. So as, as the boomers get old that collected stamps and coins, their stamp and coin collections will go onto the market and the question is going to be to whom? Nobody's really interested in stamps and coins. If they. So I, I'd hit the bid, frankly. And if you have a Beanie Baby collection, I'd hit the bid on that too. And I speak as an ex stamp and coin collector.
- [40:28]
A
Okay, Wait, sorry, I lost my place in these questions. One second. That says just a couple more. So everyone is anxiously awaiting the next Higher High Ground novel. But I really like to hear if there's any consideration or work on the preparation for young women. We've done a little bit of work on it. I wouldn't expect anything soon, but it is, there is work being done on it.
- [41:00]
B
Good.
- [41:02]
A
Yeah. I will say though, a lot of, a lot of girls are doing the, the preparation. I mean they may make adaptations as they go, but I, I have seen, I don't know, several at least that are. That are doing it. So I like, I don't, I think most of it applies to a girl just like it would to a boy. There some adaptations maybe, but I think fundamentally it's the same. And certainly girls have been drawn into it and are taking advantage of it
- [41:28]
B
already, as it should be. Every girl should be capable of becoming Lara Croft, if you would.
- [41:37]
A
Right. Okay. So here's a UK investor. He asked if there's any advantage or disadvantage to buying Hydrograph on either the Canadian or U.S. exchanges. Is there a better. Some of these, a lot of these mining stocks and hydrograph 2 that we talk about are traded on Atlaya. They have a US over the counter listing and they have their main listing in Canada. If you have a choice of investing in either, what should you do?
- [42:08]
B
Well, Hydrograph is really making a change moving from Canada to the U.S. so I think that's fine to buy in the U.S. but generally speaking, if the primary listing of something is in a given country, you want to buy it if possible in that country. Because if you buy it in a secondary market where it's not really traded, you know, there's a currency conversion cost and there are legal frictions and all that to sign it up to. So yeah, it's better to have an account in the country where it. But Hydrograph is becoming an American company now, so that's been obviated that problem.
- [42:51]
A
Okay. All right, last question. Also related to Hydrograph. This is from a subscriber to Crisis Investing. So they received our recommendation on Hydrograph and they say they asked us if we'd review the buy up to price for it because they did invest when we recommended it and once it doubled, they took their Casey free rides that sold half. So they got all their initial investment back. Says but I'm keen to buy more, but I'd prefer to do it with your guidance. So I'm wondering if there's a buy up to price that's changed.
- [43:26]
B
You know, this is a very, very speculative situation. I mean, if Kevin Brambo is right, and he might be. The story tells cogently. I mean it could be 100 to one shot from here. But on the other hand, high tech, big wreck, anything can go wrong. Change in the technology, something. So this is, this is like a. It's a lottery ticket, but I still own mine. But you know, it's a lottery ticket.
- [44:04]
A
Yeah, it's a real spot.
- [44:05]
B
If you go to zero, it could.
- [44:08]
A
Exactly. It's a speculation which is why it's important to do the Casey free ride. And if you've got still, you know, half your position there and you're, you know, you're in the black with the position, I mean just write it and see where it goes and you don't have any. You don't have to worry about the downside risk from where you are.
- [44:25]
B
Yeah. With things like this, it reminds me of a. Of a crypto fund that a friend of mine put together. And so I invested in it. And not so long after we put our money into. Went seven to one. And I told them, because I was an advisor to the fund, I said, listen, I'm an advisor. So let me give you some advice. It's gone seven to one in like six months or something like that. Why don't you give everybody their money back? In fact, give them twice their money back. Everybody will think you're a hero for the rest of your life. And you'll still have, let's see, seven to one give out. You'll still have about five times what you initially had to speculate in these things. But no. So he should have taken a free ride. And. And now the thing is melted down to like 50.50cents on the dollar. What we wish. So instead of doubling your money. So, yeah, it's good to take money off the table with speculative deals.
- [45:28]
A
Okay. All right, good. Well, that's all the questions for today. Doug, is. I think we'll wrap it up here and be back next week, next Wednesday with more.
- [45:38]
B
Fantastic. Matt, have a good weekend.
- [45:40]
A
Yeah, you too, Doug. Thank you very much.