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- [00:03]
A
All right. Good morning, Doug. Lots of stuff happening, but we're because of a viewer who said we don't bring up this day in history anymore. I know you did some digging and you've got something to share today. So let's start there.
- [00:14]
B
Yeah, I thought it was a nice institution that we let fall by the wayside. By the wayside. And of course, that happens to almost all institutions. They eventually fall by the wayside. But. Okay, so there was something that came to my attention. It's that last month. And of course, we're just on the cusp of last month, so I can still bring this up. William Tyndale, a little known person in Western history, English history also, he was the first person to translate the Bible into the vernacular into English from Greek, which is what he did it from. So this is a big deal because his version of the Bible translated into. When did he do this? He does. 1523, about the time that Henry VIII kicked the Pope by the wayside and. And left the Roman Catholic Church and created the Anglican Church and of course Protestantism. One of the big differences between Protestantism and Catholicism is that Protestants are not only allowed but are encouraged to read the Bible themselves, which is very dangerous, which is why the Catholic Church prohibited laymen to read the Bible. You'll be told what the Bible says. Thank you very much. This is.
- [01:43]
A
And that's why Latin Mass was a thing too, right?
- [01:46]
B
Yeah. More recently, I personally, having grown up as a Catholic, I rather like the Latin Mass because you can actually learn a little bit of Latin when priest is saying these things and I'm not interested. Well, I. I thought that was a redeeming factor for the Mass. I haven't been to Mass for many years, nor do I plan on returning. But anyway, you know, the Catholic Church likes to say that it's unchanging and, you know, a solid rock. But like Karl Marx said. And of course, you're not supposed to say anything good about Karl Marx. And he was an immensely destructive influence, as it turned out. But he pointed out that the church is very flexible and it changes with the prevailing winds, you know, so it doesn't want to be one of those forgotten institutions. Oh. Which it may be becoming. Anyway, anyway, that's. Oh. Getting back to Tyndall, what I wanted to say is, okay, it was important that he gets credit for that. But Sir Thomas Moore, St Thomas More, everybody thinks him as a good guy because he's the guy that was murdered in the cathedral. Okay. Henry VIII killed the cathedral because he remained a Catholic when Henry said everybody had to be an Anglican. So Henry sent out whether it was a misinterpretation of his order or not and he was murdered in the cathedral. St. Thomas More, very famous because he was murdered. But what I found interesting is this, is that when he was in the position of power he sent out, he unleashed the secret police to track down Tyndale who was at that time living in Holland which was a free country. And they tracked down Tyndale and had him tried kangaroo court and. And somehow and executed. So Sir Thomas Moore was considered a hero and a saint was. Was really an anti intellectual wanting to constrain people's thoughts not letting them read the book. Anyway that's kind of interesting. So that's a snippet from past history which I think is worth knowing.
- [04:09]
A
Yeah, I. I had no idea about that. It's fun. It's always interesting when saints are so unsaintly.
- [04:14]
B
Yeah almost always. They're most of religious fanatics, you know that were not of this world that are actually mentally unbalanced. A lot of them are really crazy but they're famous and love. So anyway teach his own and we
- [04:32]
A
had several other things on your list. What was the next thing?
- [04:35]
B
Oh, I know it was yesterday I gave a speech at a luncheon group small for Rand Paul who's here in Argentina at the moment. And Rand had met with Milei the previous day and there were about 20 people this little luncheon and I was invited to give to be the free entertainment for the lunch. Okay. Basically that's what I what I was but since I'm kind of well known down here in some circles so Rand's people asked me to give a luncheon speech and I did. It was basically a takeoff of an article that I wrote for internationalman.com and another speech that I gave same speech to another group here in Argentina a couple of months ago. And basically while I said that Malay's election is a world historic importance, it's unique, it's a big deal. I think he's failing and what disappoints me is that although he's identified himself in an excellent way explaining things as an anarcho capitalist and how that would work and he's identified himself as an enemy of the state in his speeches and he gives a lot of speeches here in Argentina as a parasite, as a predator, as an enemy of the common man. He's really very good. He's really talking the talk perfectly but he's not walking the walk. And I gave six Reasons, serious reasons or examples of how he's doing the opposite of what an ancap would do and therefore giving the philosophy of anarcho capitalism and actually libertarianism a bad name. So that was what my speech was about.
- [06:40]
A
What's the biggest thing? What's the one, one of the six or the biggest one that comes to
- [06:44]
B
mind that Jesus, I mean, he didn't abolish the central bank and they're making a big deal about the fact inflation in Argentina has fallen from 2 or 300% per year down to 30% per year. Good, that's excellent. But if he abolished the central bank, which is the main instrument for the growth of the state, it would have fallen to zero. So I explained that a little bit. Fact that Argentina has 2 million ounces of gold. Theoretically it does. That's what the Argentine government owns, but I researched this myself. Nobody talks about these things. When he was elected, a million of those ounces were stored in Europe, presumably with the bank of England. But okay, that's bad enough, but he took another 440,000 ounces from Argentina and shipped them. It's uncertain where, which is another problem, presumably to the bank of England. Why? People asked why? I said, well, for liquidity purposes and to earn interest, 3% interest. What's the whole purpose of a. So there are a lot of things that could have been, should have been done with that gold to make the monetary system down here anyway. That's inexplicable and irrational. I'll give you another one. Few people are aware of the fact that Argentina bought 24 used F16s, probably 30 or 40 year old planes from Denmark. Okay, now the question I had is what in hell is Argentina going to do with 24 F16s? It's not just the $550 million they paid for them, which is amazing since this is a country where Malaya said correctly, no, I plug, there's no money. So it goes out and sends us money for totally useless goddamn planes. There's nothing you can use those F16s for. Nothing. I mean nothing. Not even patrolling the offshore waters to keep Chinese fishing boats out. It's a wrong plane, wrong way to do it. It's crazy, unexplained, but it happened. Saying he wants to join NATO and form alliances with these NATO countries. Also with the Ukraine, with Israel. I mean, what possible good can that do for Argentina? The answer is nothing, because I've got it involved in some war that NATO or Israel or, or, or the Ukraine is crazy. But he wants to do it. And you know, he should have abolished all foreign exchange controls immediately. No, we still have them. They've been loosened up, but they're still supporting Peso, which is. Same thing is going to happen with peso if he keeps us up as happened with the British pound and George Soros. It's a gift to speculators, so opens the door to more corruption. And there's a bunch of stuff I talked about. Anyway, this is, this isn't supposed to be about, you know.
- [09:53]
A
Yeah, but, but it's interesting because, because you haven't. Because you, you've expressed like strong support for him in the past and I just don't, I don't think you've. Because oftentimes people comment under the videos and say, yeah, and Malay is not. Actually not good. And I just don't think you've.
- [10:09]
B
You.
- [10:09]
A
I don't think you've shared your updated view of it.
- [10:12]
B
I don't think I have. Except in that article on international man.com, which we didn't talk about. Anyway. People get so much stuff. We were talking about this ourselves. There so much stuff that you have to read and listen to. Most people, including myself, can't absorb it all. Otherwise your whole life is doing nothing but reading emails. So anyway, we'll. I, it's good that I got to say this on this little forum. Anyway. Rand is a nice fellow and we got along well, but you know, he's not going to change anything in, in the Senate. So anyway, you know, when you, you,
- [10:53]
A
you mentioned, you told me about earlier this guy who made a manpad for 96 bucks. And when I was, when you mentioned the F16s.
- [11:02]
B
Yeah.
- [11:03]
A
Brought that guy to mind.
- [11:04]
B
Oh yeah. This was, this was wonderful. There's a, a kid, he's like 21 or 22, I think, that fabricated a man pad. That's a. Well, do you have that video?
- [11:18]
A
Yeah, actually, if you keep. You could keep talking about it. I'll just share the video without the sound in the background.
- [11:22]
B
Okay. So he, he put together this with $96 in. In he launching it. Yeah. Great.
- [11:33]
A
This is a.
- [11:35]
B
And he explains how he made it 96 bucks of stuff that you can buy off the shelf, including the rocket engine that he made himself and the chemicals which are garden variety and easy to find. The, you know, the, the nozzle which is important for rockets. The only thing he lacks on this thing is an explosive warhead, which, you
- [12:01]
A
know, would have gotten the ATF at his door, I think.
- [12:03]
B
Yeah. So he did this the right way. But listen, since this is a prototype, a one off, made for $96 by somebody who's never done it before, but is obviously very competent and smart. This is showing how weapons are being democratized on all fronts, not just drones, which is obvious. But here's another military weapon which you could have one too, and second and third iterations. Hey, he can, he can triple his budget.
- [12:38]
A
It's going to be way better.
- [12:39]
B
Way better. Yeah. So, yeah, I just think that was interesting.
- [12:45]
A
Yeah. And it just shows you. And I think we're seeing the consequences of this kind of thinking and with this asymmetrical thinking with what, what the US is experiencing in Iran now. No doubt the US is like bombing the hell out of Iran. No doubt. But at the same time, you know, they have the ability to reach out and strike back still. And I think, you know, that's. And one example of that also on your list was that they, they hit an E3, which is one of these AWACS planes, which the US doesn't have very many of them. And they needed. They, they brought them to the area because the fixed radar was all destroyed by the Iranians already. So they bring in this.
- [13:31]
B
Yeah. And, and this also has to do with methods of warfare. Why should you try to shoot an Awax out of the sky? It's guarded by the F35s that it's feeding information to. So that's kind of crazy the way you do this and also take out the F35s and the tankers, which they did, is you get these things on the ground where they're sitting ducks. You know where they are. They're sitting there. It's easy. And of course they did. And the Iranians, the Americans said their AWACS was damaged. Yeah, I'd say it was damaged. They blew the back part of the plane.
- [14:16]
A
It was in half.
- [14:17]
B
Yeah, yeah, that's, that's kind of, I'd say that's damaged. Okay. But they also, and they don't talk about this so much. They also took out a bunch of tankers and with short range planes like F35s, and frankly, all of our plans, you need tankers. So they blew up a bunch of those too. And they'll get them on the ground. This is why, this is why our aircraft carriers have to be a thousand miles away from the shore. They're afraid to come to shore, but the planes can't fly a thousand miles, so they're useless.
- [14:52]
A
They got to refuel both ways, I think.
- [14:54]
B
Yeah. And these aircraft carriers are, they're basically sitting Ducks. They're relics of the Cold War. They're useless. They're dinosaurs. So the Iranians are proving that. So, I mean, listen, this. This special military operation with Iran is proving to be quite a learning exercise. But I don't think Pete Hagstaff, who basically impresses me, is the kind of kid that reached his peak in junior high when he was captain of the football team. And, you know, he's. He's just a loudmouth and a bully. But Trump likes him because he's a loudmouth and a bully, and he's got some good aspects. He wanted to get rid of Wokenism in the military. Okay, that's good. But that doesn't qualify him to do all this crazy shit that he's doing.
- [15:46]
A
That certainly doesn't. It doesn't. And you're seeing, I mean, some of this, the damage that the US has taken on. You know, even if you think the US Is winning or they're not winning, nobody really can understand unless you. None of us can know. We don't have firsthand experience. But certainly the reported damage, even the damage that the US has reported they've gotten is like, this never happens. I mean, they don't lose these planes. They don't have their, you know, the fifth Fleet blown up. You know, I mean, this just has not happened in the past. And I think it shows the way warfare has changed so dramatically in such a short period of time, and we're not really suited for it at this point. We got to change things around quite a bit.
- [16:35]
B
All we're doing is spending immense amounts of money on assets which are easily destroyed, like the radar installations and so forth. And if you keep prodding the bear, the Iranians have said, well, we're going to prod you back. That's really easy to do by taking out desalination plants, because these places are desert. No water, nobody can live. And blowing up their production facilities and refining facilities. It's. It's so. It's so stupid attacking the Iranians. And at this point, the. The basic idea for attacking them is to open the Straits of Hormuz, which were open before they were attacked. Nobody benefits from this but Israel.
- [17:26]
A
Frankly, Trump went out of his way today to say that it didn't matter if the strait was open or not. That wasn't his objective. And, you know, when we're done, we're just going to leave. Oh, and he says, we're almost done again, we're almost done.
- [17:39]
B
Oh, well, listen, I know there are a lot of Trump supporters. Maybe there's still some left that are listening to us. And I'll emphasize again, I was so happy Trump won, as opposed to Kamala and that idiot she ran with were both avowed communists and would have made things much worse whatever they did. Much worse. So it's not that I, I don't have tds. I mean, I was favorably inclined towards Trump because he's such a skilled liar. All the things he said from Doge right on down, and people actually believe him. I'll have the Ukraine war ended in 24 hours and people still believe this stuff. He, he, he is such a skilled lot, but he's, he says things like a man of people. When the Federal Reserve guy, Powell says things, it's always in Fed speak. What the hell did the guy just say? I don't understand it. And they're both liars, but one speaks in techno jargon and the other speaks in, you know, barroom talk or locker room talk, and that's comprehensible. So I'd say that Trump is a much more skilled liar than Powell is.
- [18:56]
A
And he's also, and sometimes I think he's also very honest. Like, he lets stuff through too, you know, so he's so. And I think that's part of what makes him know why, why he's such a. He's demonstrated that he's lied so many times. Like he's tacoed on Iran, I don't know, at least once a week saying, we're about done. And so that's the latest one today. And of course the markets are up because it's all, it's all over now, you know, and, but I think why he, why he still has, you know, people's attention and still have people still listen to him is because he, sometimes he just says the wildest things. Like, he says things like the truth comes out, or, you know, he just, he says things that are totally unexpected and, and unintentionally hilarious. A lot of it.
- [19:43]
B
Oh, yeah, no, I love that about him. And of course, any good lie has an element of truth that's important to have, not to have a total and complete fabrication only works sometimes, too. So. But it doesn't matter if Trump wants to end the war, because the Iranians at this point have a very justifiable casus belli. I mean, the US and Israel were in talks with them, and what do they do? The US uses that as a, to have a sneak attack. Well, like Pearl harbor, which Trump brought up for the Japanese. Again, listen, they don't believe and they don't want to end the war because these high oil prices have been wonderful for the Iranians and for the Russians and all that.
- [20:36]
A
I know, it's like it's not going to end.
- [20:39]
B
They don't want it to. Why should it? Why should it end? And they need to punish. Because the US Is acting like the Great Satan, launching an unprovoked attack, killing people promiscuously. I mean, listen, we're acting like the great. It's shameful, actually.
- [20:57]
A
You know, and there's. To me, there's. There's. It's almost like two issues you have to peel apart with this whole thing. One is the actual war fighting with Iran, and the second one is the Strait of Hormuz, because one of them has, you know, one of them is just, you know, us. Gets gotten involved with wars my whole life, so that's just what the U.S. does. And, you know, presumably there is a war plan. And, you know, even though that makes no sense to us, you have to assume that there are some. I mean, there are plans for everything at the Pentagon. You have to assume they've got some strategy, whether it'll win or work or not. But the straight of horror moves. As long as that's closed, we have on our hands an economic calamity that was. That is unimaginable in its consequences. And no one seems to be there. Not many people seem to be awake to what's coming, the tsunami that's coming our way because of it. And so whether we're winning the war or whether how we're going to continue to fight that war or whether or not we just leave, that still leaves open this problem with the Strait of Hormuz.
- [22:02]
B
Yeah. And it's compounded by the fact that the uae, the United Arab Emirates, where Dubai is and Abu Dhabi is, have in effect declared war against Iran. You said that they're going to contribute troops to the Marines or whoever, that Trump is going to say this is insane on their part because they're nothing but a bunch of desert Arabs who got lucky having a lot of oil and gas. 85% of the people in the UAE are non UAA people, basically Indians and Bangladeshis and Filipinos who are important to work there, who would impress me as a time bomb that could go off because they're not treated well and there's enough of them to make a difference. And what do they think the Iranians are going to do? You declare? All right, you want to dance? Let's just unload a whole bunch of missiles on all these highrises that you. And you'll see what it's. This is insane.
- [23:11]
A
It is insane. And I, I do believe that the UAE had a bypass pipeline that went around the Strait of Hormuz and that's been blown up. So that might have been their trigger that said that, no, we're going to go to war now.
- [23:24]
B
Yeah. And of course, the Houthis, which are just a rebel group within Yemen, which is not really a country, it's kind of a. They were in a war with the Saudis for about five years. The Houthis won against the Saudis, even though they had an immense amount of expensive equipment that they were able to buy from the Americans. The Saudis have to back off. But now they're saying, well, yeah, maybe we're going to close the Bab El Mandab, which is the Red Sea. So that means everything going through the Suez Canal ain't going anywhere else at this point. So this thing is going to spin out of control further.
- [24:04]
A
Right. And I'd just say it was separate the war thing from the, from the energy thing, too, because it's like whether, whatever happens with the war, whatever you think Trump's intentions with the war plans are, there's this whole issue, this, this fuse that's been lit on the global economy that will cause a, you know, global depression if it, you know, if it continues to compound having to do with the energy getting out of there. So you have, you have that problem with the, with the Houthis. You've got obviously there, you know, the straight over moves. And at the same time, you have Ukraine, which is using US Targeting data, blowing up all these Russian facilities, like massive Russian facilities, you know, some reports where like 40% of all their exports came out of one particular terminal that's been attacked several days in a row and has been seen in balls of fire, you know, on video. So, like, what's going on there? You know, I mean, it's like the, the war plan, I understand you want to do whatever you want to do with Iran. Okay. But you're going to kill the global economy with these moves. And it seems like there's a lot of there, there is control the US has over that. You have to assume they at least don't have to let, let the Ukrainians use their targeting data to blow up the Russian facilities.
- [25:22]
B
Yeah. Why is the US still supporting, maybe not directly, but with targeting data and other indirect ways, this mincing little nothing. Nobody can't even dress himself properly when going out in public. In the Ukraine. It makes no sense whatsoever. It's crazy. I mean, it's insulting. So anyway, the Iranians have no interest in ending this war because they're righteously indignant. For lots of reasons at this point. Lots of reasons. I mean, you blow up a school with 180 school girls, there's no apology, no acknowledgment, which is.
- [26:06]
A
And they double tapped it. They double tapped it.
- [26:08]
B
Double tapped it. I mean, this is actually unforgivable. And word spreads among the Iranian people and they don't like it. They don't like being bombed. They don't. You know, you can like or hate the, the, the a, the aa. I'm no fan of the Ayatollah or, or Muhammadanism or any of that, but the people of that country are Muhammadans and can't blow up an important religious figure and most of the government that many of the people support anyway.
- [26:47]
A
Well, you take the school example. I mean, what would Americans do if someone did that to us?
- [26:54]
B
It would be like, it'd be, it'd be like. Remember the Alamo?
- [26:59]
A
Yeah. So you just have to like, put the shoe on the other foot, you know, be like, how would, what effect would this have on us?
- [27:06]
B
Well, we can't. We can't put the shoe on the other foot. We only, only look at things from our point of view. And anyway, it's not our point of view because. Wait a minute, we've got a little buddy. A little buddy. Its name is Israel and they have nuclear weapons and they really want to see the Iranians wiped out because that's the only state entity that they still have to confront in their part of the world. So is it possible that they will launch a nuclear strike in the Middle east and they don't even have to claim credit for it? They could just say, we don't know who did it. Or maybe it was a rogue American general, General Jack D. Ripper.
- [27:52]
A
What are the odds of that happening, do you think?
- [27:55]
B
Not as low as most people think. Because the Israelis, you know, really want to wipe out the Iranians. They're the only state entity in the area that still exist that are meaningful. So yeah, they want to wipe it out. Well, they can have the great Satan help them.
- [28:15]
A
Are we talking tactical nukes or you think a conventional over Tehran?
- [28:20]
B
I think all you need is a tactical nuke, which is easy to go delivered because they're, you know, they're backpack size. So I don't know how competent Mosag really is, but I think they could probably get one into Tehran or some other area which would perhaps even be more appropriate. And that's game on because the Iranians, you know, you know, they have lots of uranium and it can be enriched to a certain degree. And a lot has been. We say we're going to steal their uranium, uranium and we're going to steal their oil too. Trump has said that. It's incredible. So, yeah, they could, I think they can fabricate neat little bombs, maybe on the dirty bomb level and get them into Israel. I mean, this is, this is not rocket science. And let them off in Israel. Tit for tat. You got to do tit for tat when you're dealing with this type of thing.
- [29:18]
A
You know, even if it were rocket science, the Iranians have proven to be pretty good at rocketry, as it turns out.
- [29:25]
B
That's right.
- [29:27]
A
Yeah, it's. So what are your. How would you. Personally, I feel like people are still, they're not grasping with the economic consequences and forgetting about the war. But just think about the flow of oil and with that and gas also and fertilizer and sulfur and helium and all of those things, all that. They're not coming out of there at all. What does this mean for the economy in your mind?
- [29:56]
B
It's got to be really bad news because the economy is head over heels in debt on lots of levels and it's got to be serviced and interest rates are going up. I mean, a major interest rate Cycle bottomed in 2022 and interest rates have gone up from around zero, which was almost metaphysically impossible, but it happened because of manipulation to, you know, now they're headed up and I think that should the dollar luckily last that long, I guess it will. They're going back up to the levels of the early 1980s, which everybody's forgotten about. The US government was paying 15 to 18% for money back then.
- [30:40]
A
So the risk to the economy. Is this more significant than the oil shock of the 70s? I mean, is it. What do you think?
- [30:50]
B
Yeah, I think it is because the world is much more interconnected now than it was back in the 70s. So bad news in one place can spread to another place. Don't forget that the trigger for the 1929 depression was the failure of a semi obscure Austrian bank. Who would have guessed? But it's a daisy chain, much more of a daisy chain now than it ever was because one bank owes another was another corporation or institution. You fail. Oh, the next guy fails because they're all in debt and the next guy fails because he Owned the other guy's debt. And there are trillions of dollars of private credit, I'm not talking publicly traded bonds, but private credit that have been lent. And that kind of leads us to the latest bubble, which is the building of not just billions, not just tens of billions, but hundreds of billions are being invested apparently in these data centers which are springing up everywhere. And we were talking earlier, I'm asking myself, what are these data centers doing? They're mainly harvesting information about everybody in every possible way. They know everything you've done, you've think you want, you spend, you have everything. Okay, what good is that doing to us? And it's still not earning ser serious money. So they're making all this, these investments, capital they built up and more loans they're taking out. I, I think it's going to blow up. This is, this is pro, it may be the biggest bubble in world history. Just a thought.
- [32:30]
A
Well, we know the private credit market is already breaking down. So like a lot of people have looked at that as, that could be the thing the housing of, you know what housing was for 2008. Private credit could easily be for now. But then you stack on top of that. This AI bubble, the fact that markets are, you know, they're expensive still. And then you added the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and reduction of, is it 10 or 15% of global supply of energy. And how do you not get a recession if not depression out of this? I just can't, I like, I can't figure out a way out of it that wouldn't cause that.
- [33:09]
B
No, I, I, I don't either. Because the US government is astride the world like a colossus and it's bankrupt and getting more bankrupt with, you know, the debt is manifestly out of control at this point. The US government is like a, is like a gambler on tilt. That's what it's like placing more bets, hoping to get lucky. But they're all stupid bets that it's
- [33:37]
A
making they seem insane at this point.
- [33:40]
B
To be honest, it's a good reason not to own bonds or credit instruments of any type. Well, there's always exceptions. Like I own some convertible bonds in successful gold mining companies. Okay, they'll be okay because they're convertible and collect some interest along the way. But I wouldn't own any bonds at this point. But prudent financial counselors tell their clients 40% of your portfolio should be in bonds, okay, that's gonna be more or less a wipeout. And Stocks, all these stocks are grossly overpriced, especially if you're in tech stocks and double especially if you're an AI related stocks, which all the big ones are. So a lot of people can get really hurt the money they're planning on for retirement and all that. So I think there can be a whole bunch of middle class people that going to wind up living under a bridge because the bank is going to foreclose on their house. The bank, hey listen, number one is survive. And that means if you got a cl foreclose on somebody's house, yeah, you're going to do it. But then maybe the government will step in and say no, you can't foreclose and we'll bail the bank out by printing more money. How do we get out?
- [35:01]
A
Either way you end up.
- [35:05]
B
No, I'm. Listen, I'm in Buenos Aires right now. You're in Uruguay, I'll be in Uruguay next week. And I feel much better about being down here where nobody. These problems don't really exist. There's no debt down here because these stupid countries have destroyed their currencies and people work around it. So actually we've got crappy currencies, but they're stable for the moment. But there's no debt, which is great. And you're not involved in this stuff.
- [35:40]
A
Why do you think what markets are supposed to be smart forward looking, you know, the wisdom of crowds that, you know, you know, oil. If you think if a huge portion of the oil supply is cut off that, you know, oil would be. If you would have told me that this is what happened, this Radomor was closed, I think everybody would have estimated that gold would curve. Sorry, gold, oil would be 120, 150 or more a barrel. And you know, but It's. What is it? 95. The WGI is 95 bucks right now. And you know, the S and P still like everything seems fine. You know, it's up today just a bit like it's. Everybody thinks the mark. If you look at the market for what's happening in the world, it's all okay.
- [36:29]
B
Yeah.
- [36:30]
A
So are we wrong or is the market wrong?
- [36:33]
B
Well, like you just said, the, the market, I mean, what's the average iq? I mean depends on where you go.
- [36:42]
A
I mean let's say a hundred
- [36:46]
B
in the Orient, which I think is the best place to be actually it's probably 105. And in Somalia it's like 70. And in the US the latest figures, it's 98. We need to import more Somalis Clearly. Clearly. But it's like a herd of cattle. I mean, they don't think individually. I mean, one panics and the next one panics and they start running and, or like lemmings or, you know, any, any of these herd animals. So the market is often stupid. This is what Benjamin Graham was talking about when he was talking about Mr. Market who experiences, you know, periodic periods of psychosis and I think we're in one now.
- [37:36]
A
Yeah, I was thinking about this. You know, I don't have as obviously nearly as long of an investing career as you do, but in my experience, the major events, the dot com bust, the financial crisis of 2008, the market crash in March of 2020 because of COVID Each one of those was easily seen in advance by me. You know, a basic, I mean, I could see it and, and yet, you know, no one else around me. It seems like most people don't see it until after the market actually crashes and then they go, oh shit, we have a problem now. You know, I mean, I was reading your work and others before the financial crisis and you know, it was. I had enough time to know it was coming, that I could sell my business, buy an apartment in Argentina, move my family, my young family down there before it happened. It was enough advance notice about it. So everyone saw these problems and I think that's where we are again. Like this is at some say, at some point everyone's going to wake up and freak out in the markets and we'll have a liquidity event. Like at least, like March of 2020, I would think.
- [38:49]
B
At least. Yeah, everybody thinks since the market's up today, everything's going to be fine. And this is the one thing that. Listen, I remain super bullish on gold and especially the gold stocks for the reasons that we explain in Crisis Investing, our newsletter, but which I think most listeners should probably subscribe to and not everybody, but I think most of you guys should, it's that even the gold stocks, when there's a real panic, I mean, homestake, this is well known. During the 1929-33 portion of the depression, homestake went up 3, 4, 5 times. What's the number?
- [39:34]
A
A lot.
- [39:35]
B
While everything else was crashing. But I think this time might be a little bit different because everybody's so much in debt and when you gotta pay your debts, you sell anything that there's a bid for. So maybe the gold stocks will get hurt in the short run, which is. I'm kind of lightening up a little bit, even though I'm Bullish. I'm trying to be prudent because in the last few years, I've been over, head over heels, imprudent, 100% all in on these things. They treated me well. I don't want to lose the gains. It's easy to do. So, yeah, I'm taking some money off the table, even though I remain bullish, because the gold stocks are really a lot cheaper than gold at this point, relatively. Or anything, frankly, except oil stocks. Equally bullish on them. Not all, but the ones that are out of harm's way, if you would.
- [40:26]
A
Yeah, for now. You never know where the next drone with all these or manpad might be used.
- [40:31]
B
That's right. I want one of them. But, hey, fit mine with a little warhead too, would you?
- [40:39]
A
Yeah, I. I think he has the three. The, The. The plans. I think he published them, so I think anybody can make it with a 3D printer and his directions.
- [40:48]
B
Oh, yeah, it's. I mean, you know, one girl tells another and he. It's. Well, It's. It's like 3D printed guns, which aren't all that effective because, you know. But this is different.
- [41:04]
A
This is different. I think we're going to see democratized warfare on a level that was probably difficult to imagine even a few months ago. Yeah.
- [41:13]
B
Just in time for something that'll resemble a civil war in the US between the people that live in cities and vote blue and the rest of the country, which is conservative, whether they like Trump or not. Of course, that's another issue. Yeah. Okay.
- [41:29]
A
All right, Doug, I think we'll leave it there for today, and we'll be back on Friday, might have a guest on Friday, so we'll see.
- [41:34]
B
We hope so. With a little bit of luck. Bill Buffert, who writes the blog Chasing Ghosts, which is really excellent, he really knows his stuff about military things in general, so I think he's going to be with us. We'll find out. So, something else.
- [41:54]
A
Okay. All right, thanks a lot, Doug. We'll see you in a couple days.