Doug Casey: This Is "Ultra Serious"

Summary

Podcast Summary: Doug Casey's Take — “This Is ‘Ultra Serious’”

Episode Date: March 20, 2026
Host: Matthew Smith
Guest: Doug Casey

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Overview

This episode dives into the fallout from recent major turmoil in the Middle East—specifically, the escalating Iran conflict, U.S. involvement, and intensified global economic consequences. Doug Casey, known for his contrarian and libertarian takes on geopolitics and investing, analyzes the implications of supply destruction in global energy markets, exposes government narratives, critiques the Trump administration, and answers wide-ranging audience questions on politics, investment, and societal dynamics.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Iran Conflict and Global Energy Destruction

• Immediate Focus:
  The conversation opens with the deteriorating situation in Iran, emphasizing not just supply disruption but actual destruction of critical facilities.
• Impact Across Asia:
  • Energy shortages and price jumps are already hitting countries like Thailand and Vietnam.
  • Governments instituting four-day workweeks to save fuel, along with “energy lockdowns.”
    • “We were worried about climate lockdowns. We're getting energy lockdowns because of this.” (Matthew, 04:09)
• Pandora’s Box Metaphor:
  Both agree the consequences are irreversible and underappreciated globally.
• Ripple Effects:
  • Economic devastation in the UAE, notably Dubai’s tourism, finance, and remittance sectors.
  • Potential regional bank failures due to capital flight.

2. Trump Administration Critique & American Propaganda

• “Ultra Serious” Take on U.S. Policy:
  Doug lambasts the Trump administration’s actions as “illegitimate, shameful, stupid, counterproductive.”
  • “This is ultra serious. So that's my ultra serious take on it.” (Doug, 02:51)
• Propaganda & Public Ignorance:
  • Doug argues U.S. citizens are fed lies, projecting historical parallels to the Iraq war and Afghanistan.
    • “The average American is really quite stupid at this point.” (Doug, 05:41)
• Speculation about Intentions:
  Matthew wonders aloud if the chaos was deliberate:
  • “Maybe destruction is the goal. Chaos is the goal, because that is the outcome from it.” (Matthew, 06:44)

3. Trump’s Personal Branding and Behavior

• Notable Moment—Trump Merchandise:
  • The pair lampoon Trump’s on-air pitches for branded watches and a proposed gold commemorative coin—likening his behavior to an emperor with no restraint.
    • “Can you imagine anybody with any dignity while they're in office, while they're the president, you know, pedaling a watch?” (Doug, 10:22)
    • “Trump wants to do that while he's still in office, for God's sake... He really thinks he's an emperor that can do anything.” (Doug, 11:09)

4. Military and Economic Consequences

• Escalating U.S. Military Involvement:
  • Citing loss of military hardware, drained capacity, and rumors of boots on the ground.
  • “They've doubled the number of Marines on the way... they seem itching to use them.” (Matthew, 12:25)
• Massive Spending Increases:
  • Additional military appropriations requested, bloated budgets, and missed opportunities for government downsizing.

5. Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Risks

• Commodities Outlook:
  • Doug explains move into corn and possibly rice ETFs due to shocks in fertilizer and energy prices—advises caution and due diligence.
    • “I bought a bunch of corn ETFs, because A, corn is cheap in real terms, and B, the fact that fertilizers are being extremely affected by this.” (Doug, 19:01)
• Mining Stocks:
  • Strong case for buying gold/silver miners at record-low sentiment and valuation:
    • “The average PE ratio of major miners is something like 12 to 1, which is almost unprecedented.” (Doug, 30:10)
    • “They're very cheap relative to gold and silver. So I would start edging in to these stocks now.” (Doug, 30:47)
    • On investor fear: “That feeling you’re having about miners at this point is what essentially 96% of investors feel. They want nothing to do with miners.” (Doug, 45:12)

6. Societal & Philosophical Notes

• Resignation and Integrity in Government:
  • Discussion about public officials (Tulsi Gabbard, Joe Kent) who stayed or resigned amidst the crisis.
• Red-Pilling Younger Generations:
  • Listeners ask about exposing youth to contrarian truths; the hosts stress ethical responsibility, providing hope, and dialogue:
    • “You can't just destroy the house they're living in. You have to show them what a proper house looks like…” (Doug, 34:53)
    • “It sounds like the way you’re going about this is by asking them questions, which is much, much better…” (Doug, 36:14)

7. Practical Investment Questions

• Storing Cash:
  • Doug parks capital in brokerage sweep accounts, but warns of systemic risk:
    • “The only thing that you really own is the gold coins in your own possession and maybe the title to the real estate that you have.” (Doug, 37:14)

8. Audience Q&A & Quick Takes

• Living in Argentina/Uruguay in Crisis:
  • Doug favors flexible personal preferences; isolation or urban life are choices, but crisis type matters.
• Drone Delivery:
  • Both view Amazon/Walmart drone delivery as transformative for consumers—double-edged, but net positive technology.
• Falkland Islands:
  • Doug is negative on living there unless highly prepared; key upside could be future energy windfall.
• Pepe Escobar as a Source:
  • Doug and Matt agree he's now more a “party line” amplifier for BRICS powers rather than an objective journalist.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On American foreign policy and propaganda:

  • “Most of what the Trump administration is saying to Americans and the world, it's basically lies and prevarications and obscene, overly enthusiastic projections.” (Doug, 05:27)
  • “This is a complete disaster... who knows how bad this thing with the war is going to get?” (Doug, 11:18)

• On investment sentiment:

  • “They’re cheap, very cheap relative to gold and silver. So I'd start edging into these stocks now. Don't try to pick a bottom...” (Doug, 30:47)
  • “The gold miners bullish percent index... is at 3.7 right now. People hate these stocks right now.” (Matthew, 31:04)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:00 – 05:20: Iran conflict, supply destruction, global economic ripple effects
• 05:21 – 07:50: U.S. propaganda, administration critique, question of chaos as policy
• 09:00 – 12:00: Trump-brand watch & coin controversies, leadership as self-promotion
• 13:00 – 16:30: Escalating U.S. military engagement, fiscal recklessness
• 19:00 – 20:00: Doug’s commodity strategy – moving into corn/rice ETFs
• 30:00 – 32:30: Sentiment and timing for gold/silver miners; strategy for buying in
• 33:00 – 36:45: Ethical dilemmas in “red-pilling” youth; importance of positive alternatives
• 37:02 – 37:38: Where to park funds amid system fragility
• 40:21 – 42:17: Slogans vs reality in Iran—can the U.S. achieve control?
• 45:54 – 46:22: Catalysts behind 10x–100x miner stock moves (the “magic drill hole”)
• 47:41 – 49:08: Preview of upcoming Hydrograph interview, possible 100x opportunity

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Tone & Takeaways

The tone is candid, irreverent, and at times biting—consistent with Doug Casey’s brand. There’s a clear libertarian skepticism toward power, central authority, and mainstream narratives. The hosts advise practical, independent action—whether speculation or self-reliance—and repeatedly stress the importance of critical thinking, preparation, and questioning received wisdom. The underlying message: These are ultra serious times, and acting accordingly is not optional.

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End of summary.

Transcript

[A]

All right. Good morning, Doug. We're back with questions from subscribers to crisisinvesting.com but first we have to discuss, I think, what's going on in Iran. Things continue to develop there. I think the most recent thing is that they seem to have gone the, the nuclear option by not, not with nukes, but by actually targeting the production facilities. So it's not supply disruption, but supply destruction happening there now. So what are your thoughts?

[B]

Well, both are going on because they're attacking the production facilities and refining and the shipping facilities and everything. So that this is, it's actually insane at this point. There's no way that Trump, how can Trump get out of this? If he, if he declares victory and walks off, which is probably the best scenario that he can hope for at this point, he'll left a catastrophic mess, huge destruction that's not going to go away anytime soon. And the Iranians will want to continue punishing the US and charging tolls to get through the as they should. I mean, look, when you launch an unprovoked and secret attack, I mean, this, it boggles my mind if the US Would launch a Pearl harbor type attack while negotiations were going on and in the course of this, try to kill everybody in the enemy regime. Of course that's against the rules of international law, but that's all. Anyway, I had an article a couple weeks ago in International man talking about how international law is just a chimera, means nothing. But everything that Trump is doing is, it's illegitimate, it's shameful, it's stupid, it's counterproductive, and it can only end badly. And at this point, the Iranians, I think the average guy in the street, even, even if they hate the regime, which some of them undoubtedly do, lots of them probably do feel like they can't let the, let the Americans get away with this stuff. And oh, let's talk about the Israelis, because it's really all about the Israelis. This, there was absolutely no reason whatsoever for the US to attack Iran. Sure, they don't, like Americans say death to America because look at all the stupid destructive things that the US has done to them since they overthrow overthrew MOS in 1953. But the fact that people are using harsh words and saying death to America, that's this is, this is not by any means a reason to attack them. So, you know, God or Allah or Yahweh, I'm not sure who exactly one of them or maybe some other God will punish the US for having done this. I mean, this is this is ultra serious. So that's my ultra serious take on it.

[A]

I totally agree. And I still think it's being. We talked about this before, but I really think that the impact of this event, of closing the straight of Hormuz and then now supply destruction, I don't think that people are accurately pricing it in, in any way. The consequences of it. You do see already, you see shortages in places like Thailand and Vietnam. You hear calls for reduction of air travel, especially from Europe to Asia. And in Asia, just because they don't have big enough supplies of jet fuel available to them, prices have gone up already. A lot of. And the government's done things in certain places in Asia where they reduce it to like a four day work week for government employees to save on energy. So you see these. We were worried about climate lockdowns. We're getting energy lockdowns because of this, where people are encouraged to stay home and conserve the fuel because it just isn't there. And, and it isn't a matter of if. Let's say if you could unwind everything that's been done, you still have this now substantial reduction to supply, that'll take years to rebuild and billions and billions of dollars to rebuild. But we're not going to unwind it like Pandora's box is open and the consequences of it are not fully appreciated by everybody. But it will, it will reach out and touch all of us because that's how important energy is.

[B]

Yeah. And of course, Americans are subjected to propaganda from our own government. Oh, everybody's subjected to propaganda from their own government. But the way I read it, most of what the Trump administration is saying to Americans and the world, it's basically lies and prevarications and obscene over overly enthusiastic projections. I mean, it's, it makes, it makes no sense at all. And, and this is going to come, and this comes back to bite them at some point when people realize, wait a minute, these people were lying to us really overtly. And it's a bigger deal than the lies that we're told to get the US into the wars in Iraq, nuclear weapons and all that, that was total. And attacking Afghanistan, which the Afghans had nothing to do with it, and said that we'll be happy to turn over Osama to you under, you know, reasonable conditions. So it's amazing. The average American is really quite stupid at this point.

[A]

Well, I do have to say it appears, just looking online, that Trump's lost a lot of his supporters in this. I mean, a lot have just been pushed away from It. And, you know, I just, how do I say it? I mean, it's so obviously deeply destructive that my conspiratorial mind is like, well, maybe, maybe that was the goal. Maybe destruction is the goal. Chaos is the goal, because that is the outcome from it. And you can't imagine that everyone is that stupid that this was. You know, they say things like, oh, we never at Trump says we didn't think that they would attack the Gulf countries. I mean, that wasn't fair. Like, come on. Like, they, they said they were going to do that, that they were going to attack these bases if, if they were attacked. So it's, it's crazy, honestly. So I'm just think chaos is the goal.

[B]

Well, they've created that because they've totally destroyed the major industry of Dubai, which is tourism and enjoyment and construction and all that. That's gone for a long time.

[A]

And finance as a finance hub.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, exactly. And that, and that's going to have consequences down the road because all those poor Indian and Pakistani and Bangladeshi Filipino workers aren't going to be able to ship money back home to their remittances to their home. You know, the daisy chain of consequences is long and it's unpredictable. And there's an excellent chance it could be getting worse at this point. Not, not better, but worse.

[A]

Well, you know, just from a finance perspective, there was the UAE Investment Authority. I don't remember which exact branch of government it was, but like, they had to step in already with the banks with liquidity because a lot of people who had moved their money there, you know, were moving money out. Yeah, you know, so much money there. So you see, you could see a bank failures there. I think it's, it's a high probability that in fact that you're going to see some bank failures there because people move trying to move their money out.

[B]

Ah, well, there's so much to talk about here. And Trump seems to be completely oblivious. I was unaware until you showed this to me before the show that Trump is pedaling a watch. I mean, I still can't believe it. But you say it's true.

[A]

Well, I, Well, I wasn't even sure it was true, but let me, why don't I share that with people just so that if people haven't seen this, apparently he was buying ads like on Fox News for this. And I don't watch Fox News, so I can't say personally, but this is the commercial.

[C]

It's President Donald J. Trump and it's Trump time. Check out this red beauty it's one of my new watches. Wear it proudly on your wrist, and everyone will know exactly what it's for, who it's for, who it represents. It's really going to be something special. It's for your favorite president. Get your watch [e-mail] these make a great gift. It's Trump time.

[A]

It's Trump time. So I thought it was possible that maybe that was an AI ad when I showed it to you. So it's like, you know, someone trolling him or something. But I go to get trump watches.com and I can order them, so it's. It's legit. Now. How much money is this bike, could he possibly make from this? And how much does it cost him in terms of credibility?

[B]

He really is just thoughtless and out of control, and I don't know what to make of it. It's unseemly. Can you imagine anybody with any dignity while they're in office, while they're the president, you know, pedaling a watch? I mean, I can't even believe it's happening.

[A]

Yeah. And I wish I showed you this. When you mentioned something about a commemorative coin. Can you tell people about that?

[B]

That is even more shameful. So Trump is trying to get the US to mint a commemorative gold coin showing him on it. Now, when you look at the history of the Roman Empire, it became an empire before it became an empire. It was absolutely awfully bored to put a current emperor or anybody who was still. You couldn't put people's faces on the national currency. That was not done. But Trump wants to do that while he's still in office, for God's sake. It's not. He's not even waiting until he's out of office to have a bushwater commemorative coin to be made for him while he's in office. I mean, he's. He's out of control. He really thinks he's an emperor that can do anything. And this is going to resound very badly very soon domestically and internationally for him. I mean, it's going to blow up. I think he may wind up. They may use the 25th Amendment to get rid of them. And I'm talking about the Republicans and his Cabinet, not just the normal thing, which will be the Democrats impeaching him and all this type of thing, which is going to happen for sure when they lose in the midterms. This is a. This is a complete disaster. And, of course, who knows how bad this thing with the war is going to get?

[A]

Yeah, looks, looks Awful just watching it come down the pipe because the consequences are rippling from there. You know, that's like the epicenter of the problem. And so it's hit Asia first with prices and shortages, but it's going to affect everybody. And it seems clearly going to put boots on the ground there somehow too. I mean, they've got, they doubled the number of Marines on the Marines on the way. And you got the airborne forces ready at any point, you know, to go somewhere, so they seem itching to use them well.

[B]

And they've reported that we've lost five F15s at this point. Those are $100 million plans, more or less.

[A]

And one F35 and one F35, they claim. The US claims it was just damaged and was able to land. And the Iranians say that they it crash landed.

[B]

There's a dispute, but who knows what the facts are. And they've lost a bunch of tankers as well that were taken out. But I'm sure the US Reports a minimum of the damage that's being done to American forces and our bases around the Middle east as well.

[A]

Well, and then there was that aircraft carrier that had a laundry fire that now has 600 of 600 sailors, like sleeping in makeshift conditions because it destroyed this, this laundry fire destroyed so much of their, you know, of their facilities.

[B]

Yeah. What really happened? I mean, we don't know what really happened. A laundry fire sounds suspicious for something that size.

[A]

Yeah. That went on for 10 hours. You know, were they trained to fight fires on the ship? All the time.

[B]

Right, exactly. Yeah. So. Well, I, I just hope that they don't invade, but it's probably the only way they can capture the straight is to, is to have the Marines take over the opposite shore and probably push out. Yeah, exactly. So, so stupid. So stupid on Trump's part, you know, and I'm sure that there are people that are Trump supporters that are shaking their hands and think that we suffer from Trump derangement syndrome, but I supported Trump. Well, I don't believe in voting for ethical reasons, but given a choice between him and Kemala, it was definitely seemed like Donald was the guy, especially with Doge, which, which real cause for optimism. And Doge has totally disappeared without a trace. Meanwhile, he, he's spending like a drunk sailor.

[A]

They're asking for another 200 billion now for what's happening in Iran.

[B]

Well, that's after, after increasingly the military budget by 50% and not really getting any, getting rid of any of the agencies in question, like the Department of Education. No changes there. And that, that stupid thing that they almost abolished, it's still there. What is that? The international Aid agency?

[A]

Yeah, usaid.

[B]

Right, exactly.

[A]

It was just moved under the State Department.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. So they just know Trump. Trump is going down the toilet really rapidly. He's way, way above his competence level and all the people around him are sycophants, afraid to say anything because they might lose their crappy government jobs. I'm ashamed of Tulsi Gabard, for one. Sure, she's a leftist domestically, but it seemed like she has some backbone and wouldn't put. No, she's.

[A]

Well, she should have resigned.

[B]

She should resign. Like, what's the chap that did resign?

[A]

Joe Kent. Yeah, exactly. I mean, that's your only choice when you're in those circles. If, if you can't. If what? If you disagree with what's happening, you can't change it. This is your way to communicate that to the public, you know, this is your way to take a stand. Yes, it has consequences, but it's like, it's like so obviously the right thing to do if it goes against your conscience. And if it doesn't, obviously it doesn't go against Tulsi's conscious.

[B]

Yeah. And I'm not sure why Dan Bongino resigned from his position in the FBI. Was it because of something like this or was it because he knew he was swimming in waters above his head?

[A]

I think he came out to be able to, you know, thinking he was going to go back on his podcast and start fighting, you know, the, the administration's ideas from the outside again, you know, and then. But his show's been a huge bust. He's just, he's just a gigantic embarrassment now coming out in the public and. But he didn't leave under, you know, any kind of protest that he did publicly. So it, so, you know, it's not at all related and I think to what Joe Kent did, you know, where it was. Resignation out of protest.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. I can't keep these people's names straight in my mind because to me, they're all non entities. They really should be NPCs. I don't even like to remember what

[A]

their names are, you know, and the thing is, you people might accuse us of tds, but you have to understand the thing that we're, that when we're saying these bad things about Trump and that bad things are going to probably happen to Trump, meaning him being impeached or 25th amendment, it's, it's because what he is Doing is going to hurt us. It's the impact it has on us that's the problem. You know, you can see the consequences for us, for us all. Any American people all over the world, in fact, are being. Are going to be negatively impacted by this. So it's not like an attack. Trump is, you know, the executive in charge, so he bears the responsibility of it. But the consequences of it are all beared by all of us. And that's the problem. It's not a political question of whether you're a Democrat or, you know, whether you, you know, or that you'd rather Kemala be president. It's just like, holy shit, you're destroying a lot of things. This is dangerous.

[B]

Yeah. You just have to do the best you can to insulate yourself from this. So one thing I think I mentioned last time is that I bought an ETF, and I usually don't like ETFs, but in the case of commodities, they're the most practical way to play the game. So I bought a bunch of corn ETFs, because A, corn is cheap in real terms, and B, the fact that fertilizers are being extremely affected by this. It's not just oil and gas directly, it's fertilizers, which corn, which you need.

[A]

So I need a lot for corn especially.

[B]

Yeah, and. Yeah, exactly. I'd probably. I'll probably go. Go along a few rice contracts as well, because rice is a nitrogen hog. It has to be fertilized. Fertilized rice is quite cheap. So that could be a very good speculation. But don't take commodity advice that's verbal without researching these things or any investment

[A]

advice for that matter. Yeah, that's right. Okay, Doug, let's get to some of these questions. If there were a severe global crisis of sorts, I think there is, and you could live anywhere you wanted, but only in Argentina, where would you choose?

[B]

Well, look, that's real. It's up to. How do you like the weather? I mean, you can live in the south, where it's like Alaska. You can live in the north, where it's tropical jungle. You could live in the big city like Buenos Aires. You could live in the west, like Salta, where it looks like the Four Corners area of the U.S. so what do you like? I don't know. One weird place in Argentina that most people haven't been to, but it's really interesting. Ciudad del Este at the Triple Frontera between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. It's kind of like the Wild west, which I kind of like. Actually, so, look, it's a big country. You got to come down here and take a look. And it depends on what you like.

[A]

Yeah. It also would depend on the nature of the global crisis. Right. Because, you know, if it was another Covid like thing, you wouldn't really want to be in Buenos Aires. It was really locked down. But you'd rather be on your. On a ranch in Salta or something, right?

[B]

Yeah, exactly. Hard to answer question, but I think that's as good as you can get for an answer what we just talked about.

[A]

Okay, Next question is how come we don't do this day in history anymore? Said, for example, this was the other day. He said, on this day in 44 BC, Julius Caesar is stabbed to death by 30 Roman senators. The conspirators hope the assassination will help restore the imperiled Republic. It doesn't.

[B]

Yeah, well, mea culpa, mea culpa. Mea maxima culpa. So, listen, I've fallen down and Encyclopedia Britannica has changed their format a little bit, but that's not an excuse, so. Yeah, I'll try to remember to do that, because I kind of like that feature we used to have.

[A]

Yeah, okay.

[B]

My fault.

[A]

Okay, thanks for the reminder. The next question is, are there any plans to hold a Uruguay Plan B conference this year? We haven't planned on it, but, you know, been considering it. There have been a lot of requests. So it's still possible we could toward the end of the year, but as of right now, there's nothing on the calendar. Let's see. What's Doug's take on the Iran conflict being used for the Great Reset?

[B]

Look, I don't think that Trump wants to see the Great Reset. I mean, he's doing pretty well in the old World, so does he really want to upset things? I don't think so. I think this is just a stupid idea that really went bad, and it's unrelated to what may or may not be the Great Reset. That's my view, but who knows?

[A]

Yeah, I have. I think. I think it is part of it, personally. But remember, this is the guy behind Operation Warp Speed.

[B]

Oh, yeah, right.

[A]

Which was leg one of the Great Reset.

[B]

Yeah, you're right. And anecdotally. Just anecdotally, because they don't publish statistics, the medical establishment doesn't want to talk about it, but there's lots of anecdotal evidence that a lot of young people are suffering from all kinds of heart and God knows, other cancer and other problems that weren't There before statistically unusual and highly anomalous. So Trump doesn't want to talk about that either. Well, none of the people involved in it too, no.

[A]

But at the World Economic Forum that he was recently at, he bragged about Operation Warp Speed again and actually said that it was a Department of Defense operation. That's what he said.

[B]

That's what he said.

[A]

That's what he said. And what's happening right now happens to be a defar. Department of Defense operation. So I don't know. I mean, there are a couple, you know, you have to kind of put it together, but there's no guarantees. But if you're the great reset or certainly. Well, I look at the COVID thing and I go, there was wanton destruction. Like that whole thing was so insane wanton destruction. What do we have now? So insane wanton destruction.

[B]

Now it was criminality on a global scale. It's shameful. This is the type of thing that happens when you have somebody who is an egomaniac that's put into the position that Trump is in. It turns into a megalomaniac.

[A]

Let's see. So does Doug have any thoughts on the drone delivery business emerging out of Walmart and Amazon?

[B]

I think it's probably the way of the future. What do you think?

[A]

I think so too. And I think for consumers it's going to be fantastic. I think it's, it's very cool. I mean, you know, all this technology can be used for bad and good and that's one of the really good things it could do.

[B]

Yeah, it's, it's really a double edged sword. But all technology is and always has been. But on the whole, it's a very good thing, right?

[A]

I mean, we wouldn't be having this conversation without it. I mean.

[B]

Precisely.

[A]

Okay. Does Doug have any new thoughts on the Falkland Islands either as a future refuge, oil investment or gold investment?

[B]

Well, I haven't been to the Falkland Islands. Max has, of course, when it was sailing. But I think the only way I could be induced to go to the Falkland Islands would be with a large capital investment to build a really comfortable house, kit it out with everything that I wanted, including a really great greenhouse and a couple guys to keep stuff growing in it. And at that point, if you just want to cocoon, stay inside all the time. Okay, that's. But other than that. Yes. The advantage of living in the Falkland Islands is that at some point called the Falklanders will share mightily in the offshore oil and gas deposits around the Falklands. Almost certainly, unless they're conquered by somebody, anything can happen. But that's the only way I would consider it.

[A]

Yeah, just Max's feedback on the place was very barren. It's just barren, isolated and extremely windy is kind of the impression I got from him.

[B]

Yeah. And if you don't get along with your neighbors, and you may not because they're pretty isolated and probably have, you know, very provincial views, you're in trouble because it's. You're in the middle of nowhere.

[A]

Nowhere to go. Yep. Okay, let's see. In 2010, there were 13 episodes of a season number one called Rubicon, but there never was a season number two. It's available on Amazon prime in the deep 2000 and tens. The Deep State wasn't the topic of conversation that it is today. Have you either one of you watched that show? I haven't seen it, no.

[B]

I haven't either, but worth looking for. I'll take a look at it, put

[A]

it on the list, see what it's about. Okay. Doug, what's your assessment of Pepe Escobar and Captain Roy Harkness, who seemed to have specific information about the Iran war that I have not seen anywhere else?

[B]

I don't know Pepe Escobar or I don't know either one of them personally. Our friend Michael Yan is a fan of Pepe Escobar, I believe, and so is Larry Gordon, but that's all I can say. I mean, I. I've read some of his columns in the past, but don't recall them, what he was saying. So don't know.

[A]

In the recent years, he's become, you know, very less objective and more of a. Seemed like a champion of the BRICS countries. And so whatever the, whatever the whatever was the party line of the BRICS countries, whether it be China or Russia, it was. Is like he's just kind of reporting or repeating that information. So it's. It. It hasn't. I haven't found him. I don't read him as much as I used to or listen to him as much as I used to because I just wasn't getting really new information. I was just getting whatever that side of the conflict wanted you to think. So, you know, he, he has great sources. So who knows, you know, he could be providing valuable information.

[B]

Lots of sources, a lot more than there used to be with just abc, NBC and cbs. There's thousands blog sites out there.

[A]

The next question right now, I'm waiting to put money into Sprott Gold Miners Fund. With all this Iran chaos, it just seems like Something has to hit the market and cause a pullback. Would you two wait for a dip before getting. Before gold goes on another tear. If you don't own the Sprott, any of these gold miners yet, would you wait to buy or would you buy now?

[B]

Look, they're pretty cheap right now. I mean, I think we pointed this out in the last podcast that the average PE ratio of major miners is something like 12 to 1, which is almost unprecedented or unprecedented. Well, just about for North American miners. So that they're cheap relative to other stocks. They're cheap, very cheap relative to gold and silver. So I would start edging in to these stocks now. Don't try to pick a bottom, but buy some now maybe with 20% and buy 20% next week and see what, see, don't jump in all at once. But I'd be a buyer because they're just cheap and, and I think they are going a lot higher because nobody is involved in them at all at this point. Everybody hates them.

[A]

Yeah. Let me show you. This is the gold miners bullish percent index, which basically is a measure of sentiment for gold miners. And this is on a scale of a hundred. It goes up to a hundred, you know, in terms of sentiment and it is at 3.7 right now. Which isn't an all time low in sentiment, but I mean it's really close to it. Which basically means that people hate these stocks right now. They hate them.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. They really would rather buy Nvidia and things of that nature.

[A]

Right. So that's when you. That's when sentiment wise, that's an opportunity. When you see that it's not doesn't come that often. So. So Doug, in your early investing journey, was there a moment when it all clicked, when you kind of truly understood how markets work?

[B]

No. There have been times when I realized how stupid I was, how little I knew, which was helpful. But there was no magic moment that where everything clarified and crystallized before my eyes. My answer is no. Was mainly about gradually trying to learn from mistakes.

[A]

Yeah, that makes sense to me too. All right, what's Doug's opinion on red pilling the younger generations? He says I volunteer at a bird rehab and most of them are liberal minded normies in their teens and early twenties. We have great conversations regarding geopolitics, economics and philosophy. I come at them from an ancap point of view, but it mostly ends with them feeling very demoralized. I never push. I mostly just ask questions. But am I doing them harm or is it better they. Or is it better that they've heard it from someone that never than never at all who gets to tell them Santa doesn't exist.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. That's an interesting question. I'm sure that Socrates encountered the same conundrum. It's that because, as you'll recall, he was executed for two things. Number one, corrupting the youth with wrong ideas or. And the second thing was denying the existence of the gods. And if you deny global warming and the whole panoply of things, these are our current gods, actually, so it's dangerous. Being Socrates, you could be deemed an enemy of the state. And actually, you might be ruining these young people's lives where they could be fat and dumb and happy, live normally and die peacefully, or they wake up and they have an uncomfortable, troubled existence, and the. They're executed. I mean, so take your choice. I mean, I come down on this. Listen, I do it because I find it very amusing. And I think it's good karma to tell the truth. Well, okay. My version of the truth. Okay. But so congratulations, you're doing the right thing. That's. That's, that's my opinion. Just.

[A]

Yeah. I do think, though, you have to. You have to. If they're coming out totally demoralized, like, you know, everything is a lie, or, you know, that how you think the world works, it doesn't work. And then you don't show them any kind of a hopeful path, then I do think it can be counterproductive.

[B]

That's a good. That's a good point. You can't just destroy the house they're living in. You have to show them what a proper house looks like and helps them to build it. So when you want to show them that the current judicial system is totally corrupt and ineffective, you have to show them the ancap solution to a judicial system and everything else. So that might be helpful. That'll give them a beam of hope.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. And they also, just like, you have to, you know, they have their own hopes, dreams, and ambitions for the future. So almost like if you're just talking about these abstract concepts, like the way the world is run, which is, you know, basically an abstraction to us. It's not exactly our experience. And they, they just, you know, you. They get demoralized because you're just like, knocking down all of those realities for them but not showing them how in their real world they can do something. They can make something happen for themselves. They can actually succeed and be happy and live a good life. I think it's a big mistake. And the young People do turn off from that completely and, you know, they become nihilistic. Really?

[B]

Yeah, you're. You're right. It's very good. It sounds like the way you're going about this is by asking them questions, which is much, much, much better than giving them lectures and revealing the truth from on high.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So it's excellent you're asking questions. But I would supplement that with making positive suggestions of how a free market is better and why, how that's good for them personally.

[A]

Right. How they can win.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. Okay. Where do you park your short term funds for paying big expenses or waiting for opportunities for future Investments? T bills, CDs, money market. Other.

[B]

I just leave it in my brokerage account where they pay a daily interest on the cash balance, that's all.

[A]

Yeah, it's like a sweep account or something, I guess.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. But all, all these accounts are dangerous today. I mean, the government can do absolutely anything today to, to ruin your day. So really the only thing that you really own is the gold coins in your own possession and maybe the title to the real estate that you have.

[A]

Hope. So first he gives this guy gives us a compliment. He said Doug and Matt have been excellent at cutting through all the noise with the current Iran conflict. I have a serious question as I cannot reconcile the situation over the past few days. He says if the Iran military navy weapons manufacturer is 100% obliterated. Obliterated is the term they like to use. Then how is Iran still launching missiles and blocking the Strait of Hormuz? Obviously the first casualty of war is the truth. So I'm just trying to figure out who is lying. My intuition is Trump is exaggerating the truth and or Israel has hacked the missiles the missiles launches to make it look like Iran.

[B]

Well, look, part of the propaganda is the Iranians are evil and stupid and incompetent and they don't know how to hide their stuff. Or.

[A]

And in addition, Doug, they're also at the same time unbelievably dangerous.

[B]

Yeah, that's right.

[A]

A real danger to us right now. And incompetent.

[B]

Exactly. And it doesn't matter. They're on the other side of the world. Yes, all those things. So look, one of the problems with the current situation is that we're entirely too involved in what other people are doing. Our government on the other side of the world with their government, we have no control on whatsoever. So it's very distracting. I'm very unhappy about it, among other things, because I wind up following all these trivial News feeds instead of like listening to a course from the teaching company or, or a really good podcast, perhaps.

[A]

So, yeah, well, listen, listen. I mean, we hear from the War Department, though, that we're winning and obliterating everything. And if, if that's true, then that means that the US Wants the Strait of Hormuz to be closed and wants this damage to occur to its installations. You know, if the U.S. is winning and has control, means the U.S. this is going toward the U.S. plan, which I don't think that seems weird that that would be the plan. So I think it implies that Iran can still deliver serious blows regardless of us leveling housing blocks and, you know, buildings and structures all over the country.

[B]

I don't think the US actually has a, a coherent plan. I mean, maybe the plan was it's going to go down like Maduro went down or it'll just collapse because it was ready to collapse anyway. Like Cuba is going to be the case, but I don't think that's the case. I. Iran's been there for 2500 years and it's not going away.

[A]

Okay, next question. And we just got a couple more. Carbon Streaming Corp. Has doubled in the last 12 months, is the low end. And is Doug still holding? Marin Katusa is now CEO. Has Doug heard of any new developments?

[B]

No, I. I get Marin's newsletter and there's no news there. Congratulations to Marin for kicking out the management which was looting the company. But look, I got into it. I never recommended it. I don't think I ever would have recommended it because I thought the whole carbon thing was stupid from the get go. But I bought a bunch of shares in a private placement back when Marin was promoting it because it was a bubble that was blowing up and I blew out all of my free trading shares. So actually I haven't lost any money on it, even though what I still have is basically warrants and you look some stock which isn't free trading. I can't remember why. But look, I don't believe in any of this carbon stuff. It's a total scam. It's ridiculous. It's part of the green revolution, which makes no sense, scientific or economic sense. And you know, Marin's made a few mistakes and that's, that's one of the big ones. But he's doing the best he can to rectify it. So kudos on that part, on that point.

[A]

Okay, let's see. Obvious question. I'm sure others have as well. Some of my miners have been significantly less profitable positions, especially silver Due to demand destruction from industries scaling back. If the Epstein War, what he calls it, continues to develop and spiral, would it be wise to get out while there's any gains on the table or am I missing a factor that would cause fundamentals to improve? Let's talk about mining stocks.

[B]

Look, the fundamentals for the metals are spectacular. Copper is a major deficit and if the world is to electrify, there's got to be. You've heard this all over the Internet, people like Frank Justra and Robert Friedland about the story of why copper is a good place to be. And the same is true of just about all of the metals. Mining is a, for decades has been known as a, you know, a crappy capital intensive, low return industry. And all of these metals, I mean if you like an industrial stuff society and I think we all do, we need them but they're not being mined. They're all cheap. They're all, in my opinion they're all going up. So don't worry about lack of use. I mean most silver you'll recall was used in photography not so long ago, I mean a generation ago. Now almost none of it's used as photography but silver is close to all time highs because it's a high tech metal we've talked about in the past. And the miners, I'll say it again, are very cheap relative to the metals. So yeah, listen, I'm still very long in all these things. I don't think the uptrend has changed to a downtrend. I don't, yeah, just you know, nothing goes up straight forever.

[A]

But I'll just say that our, the questioner is basically reflecting the sentiment chart here.

[B]

Yeah, yeah.

[A]

Where it feels like I won, it's time to get out. It's only going to get worse. This is, you know, this is the, this is why this is here. Your question makes perfect sense to me

[B]

and I got another question for him. It's that you get out of the miners, what are you going to get into? What's cheap? Well, oils, they're the only other thing.

[A]

Yep. And maybe some of the fertilizer companies and you know, like corn, you know also there were some stuff like that. Yeah.

[B]

Basically commodity related stuff.

[A]

It's all, all commodity related stuff.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

100%.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So but the biggest thing is you're that feeling, you're feeling about like oh I might with the miners at this point is what essentially 96% of the 96% of investors feel that way. They want nothing to do with miners.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. All of our psychologies go back and forth between fear and greed, fear and greed. And it could happen on a weekly

[A]

basis, daily now with a new cycle, I think.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. So the primary trend for commodities and metals and mining stocks is still up. So that's.

[A]

Yeah, the last question was related. It's what are the typical catalysts that made a junior miner stock suddenly go from 10x or go up 10x or even 100x in the past? You know, what was the primary catalyst that would drive these things?

[B]

The drill hole. A magic drill hole where, you know, the prospector finds that he found what he was looking for. It's like being on an Easter egg hunt. Chances that you're finding the Easter egg are small.

[A]

But, but I, and I, but I assumed that all happened within the backdrop of an existing bull market.

[B]

Has to be, has to be in a. Has to be a bull market. Yeah, exactly.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

And we're, we're in the early stages of a bull market and companies are raising money and they're doing drilling. So they're going to find some Easter eggs and that might set off a gold rush. So listen, I'm not trying to be a broken record, but there's nothing I would like more than to sell all these mining stocks because mining is a crappy business and find a different, more stable business. But right now I don't know a better place to be.

[A]

Well, Anil, we talked. I don't want to mention his name, but we talked to a very sophisticated mining investor who has a lot of skin in the game last week. And when we were just talking about the market, he said he wasn't. He said he didn't think we'd yet even entered the bull market. Do you remember last week when he. I don't want to mention his name, but he was like. And he's involved heavily and has a lot of amazing track record and we've

[B]

known him for decades and he's got excellent judgment. Always had excellent judgment. He's a smart guy. So, yeah, that's the way.

[A]

It's not just you, Doug. It's not just your opinion.

[B]

Oh, no, it's not.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Oh, one other thing on what is it Tuesday or Wednesday? I guess we're going to have an interview that we're going to put out with Kevin Bramble, who's the largest shareholder, I think, of Hydrograph, a company that some of you may or may not have heard of. Well, it's been in the crisis investing newsletter. It's done really well. And I guess Kevin is going to present the case for hydrograph, turning into 100 to one shot from here. Well.

[A]

Which is extraordinary. That's extraordinary, given how far it's already gone.

[B]

Yeah. And I own shares, and I know you do, too, but I want the session to be questioning Kevin's premises, because if we're really looking at a potential 100 to 1 from here. Yeah, you want to own it, but we'll see what Kevin, how he defends the proposition.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, it'll be interesting. I mean, he's a big. He's. I mean, he invested big time in it, obviously. It's got plenty of skin in the game, and it is like, the best evangelist out there for the company.

[B]

And he was. He was one of the central committee of Sprott, too, so he's quite sophisticated, and he's been around the block many times.

[A]

Right. Yes. Should be a fun conversation. So that'll be next Wednesday, so.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Okay. All right, well, I think we'll leave it there. Doug, you have a great weekend in Buenos Aires, and we'll see you next week.

[B]

Thanks, Matt. You, too.