Transcript
A (0:02)
All right. Good morning, Doug. We're back with questions from subscribers to crisisinvesting.com but first we have to discuss, I think, what's going on in Iran. Things continue to develop there. I think the most recent thing is that they seem to have gone the, the nuclear option by not, not with nukes, but by actually targeting the production facilities. So it's not supply disruption, but supply destruction happening there now. So what are your thoughts?
B (0:33)
Well, both are going on because they're attacking the production facilities and refining and the shipping facilities and everything. So that this is, it's actually insane at this point. There's no way that Trump, how can Trump get out of this? If he, if he declares victory and walks off, which is probably the best scenario that he can hope for at this point, he'll left a catastrophic mess, huge destruction that's not going to go away anytime soon. And the Iranians will want to continue punishing the US and charging tolls to get through the as they should. I mean, look, when you launch an unprovoked and secret attack, I mean, this, it boggles my mind if the US Would launch a Pearl harbor type attack while negotiations were going on and in the course of this, try to kill everybody in the enemy regime. Of course that's against the rules of international law, but that's all. Anyway, I had an article a couple weeks ago in International man talking about how international law is just a chimera, means nothing. But everything that Trump is doing is, it's illegitimate, it's shameful, it's stupid, it's counterproductive, and it can only end badly. And at this point, the Iranians, I think the average guy in the street, even, even if they hate the regime, which some of them undoubtedly do, lots of them probably do feel like they can't let the, let the Americans get away with this stuff. And oh, let's talk about the Israelis, because it's really all about the Israelis. This, there was absolutely no reason whatsoever for the US to attack Iran. Sure, they don't, like Americans say death to America because look at all the stupid destructive things that the US has done to them since they overthrow overthrew MOS in 1953. But the fact that people are using harsh words and saying death to America, that's this is, this is not by any means a reason to attack them. So, you know, God or Allah or Yahweh, I'm not sure who exactly one of them or maybe some other God will punish the US for having done this. I mean, this is this is ultra serious. So that's my ultra serious take on it.
A (3:42)
I totally agree. And I still think it's being. We talked about this before, but I really think that the impact of this event, of closing the straight of Hormuz and then now supply destruction, I don't think that people are accurately pricing it in, in any way. The consequences of it. You do see already, you see shortages in places like Thailand and Vietnam. You hear calls for reduction of air travel, especially from Europe to Asia. And in Asia, just because they don't have big enough supplies of jet fuel available to them, prices have gone up already. A lot of. And the government's done things in certain places in Asia where they reduce it to like a four day work week for government employees to save on energy. So you see these. We were worried about climate lockdowns. We're getting energy lockdowns because of this, where people are encouraged to stay home and conserve the fuel because it just isn't there. And, and it isn't a matter of if. Let's say if you could unwind everything that's been done, you still have this now substantial reduction to supply, that'll take years to rebuild and billions and billions of dollars to rebuild. But we're not going to unwind it like Pandora's box is open and the consequences of it are not fully appreciated by everybody. But it will, it will reach out and touch all of us because that's how important energy is.