Doug Casey's Take | Episode: "Fast Boats and Market Crash"

Date: September 5, 2025
Host: Matthew Smith
Guest: Doug Casey (Best-selling author, speculator, libertarian philosopher)

Overview

In this episode, Doug Casey and host Matthew Smith dive into two timely topics: the U.S. Navy's destruction of a Venezuelan "fast boat" in international waters, and the looming specter of a significant market crash. Doug pulls no punches offering controversial perspectives on U.S. interventionism, the war on drugs, Trump’s presidency, and prudent financial strategies for turbulent times. The discussion also touches on personal questions from listeners about investment timing, currency risk, plan B destinations, and preparing for global upheaval.

Fast Boats: U.S. Military Action and International Law

[00:01–07:12]

• Incident: The U.S. Navy destroyed a Venezuelan "fast boat" with a Hellfire missile, allegedly involved in drug trafficking.
• Doug's Reaction: Shock at the lack of an attempt to stop or inspect before destroying.

  "They just assumed that since it had three outboard motors and it was heading north from Venezuela, that they must be up to bad intentions and they sent a hellfire missile to it... To me, this is criminal." — Doug Casey (00:19)

• Legal and Moral Concerns:
  • Action took place in international waters.
  • Sets a dangerous precedent for suspicion-based military strikes.
  • If another nation did it, there would be global outrage.
  • Military response for a potential future crime, not immediate threat.

  "It's a military action, apparently based upon a potential violation of U.S. law at some point in the future. And that's a really dangerous precedent." — Matthew Smith (04:25)

• Comparison & Critique:
  • U.S. actions are normalized; others would face condemnation.
  • Doug suggests the U.S. is "out of control" under Trump’s administration.

  “If the Russians had done something like that... it would have been a worldwide outrage, I’m sure.” — Doug Casey (04:50)

War on Drugs & Fentanyl

[02:41–04:08]

• U.S. Interests Misplaced:
  • Questions the rationale of targeting drug shipments as an existential threat.
  • Critiques the effectiveness and morality of interventionist drug policy.

  "By reducing the supply of fentanyl to the US, all it's going to do is increase the cost retail in the US... The whole thing is screwed up from top to bottom." — Doug Casey (03:47)

• Personal Choice Argument:
  • Asserts the government shouldn’t police what substances adults choose to use.

Trump, Authoritarianism, and Political Choices

[05:19–07:12]

• Signs of Overreach:
  • Doug sees Trump as “truly out of control,” acting unpredictably.
  • Discusses the grim choice between "Hitler or Stalin" when asked about alternatives like Kamala Harris.

    "You want to choose Hitler or Stalin? Who do you prefer?" — Doug Casey (06:44)

  • Criticizes U.S. foreign policy as hypocritical and dangerously militarized.

Market Crash: Timing, Indicators, and Strategy

[07:15–14:04]

• Listener Q&A:
  • How to spot when a crash is imminent and when to exit markets.
  • Doug cites historical overvaluation and references PE ratios, dividend yields, and CAPE as warning signs.

    "The stock market is now at one of its all time highs... Is this a good time to be in the stock market? Especially when there are all these red flags flying?" — Doug Casey (08:13)

  • September, October considered historically dangerous months—but so are all the others, referencing Mark Twain.
• Where to Invest Instead:
  • Doug argues for small positions in under-owned, unknown stocks in obscure markets with high yields.

  "If you have small positions in under-owned unknown stocks in obscure markets... any one of them could turn into the next Microsoft." — Doug Casey (11:45)

  • Commodities, especially resources like oil, gold, silver, as the only cheap assets left.
• Market Dynamics:
  • Noted that mainstream funds can't own obscure assets even if they like them, increasing opportunities for independent investors.
  • Memorable moment: likening the market to the ship's self-destruct scene from "Alien."

    "My favorite scene from the original movie Alien is when Sigourney Weaver sets off the bomb... That's what it feels like." — Doug Casey (13:07)

Currency Risk, Plan B Destinations, and Investment Vehicles

[14:07–19:59]

• Should Listeners Leave the Dollar?

  • Gold mining and commodity stocks: currency denomination doesn’t matter as much as underlying value.

  "It doesn't really matter what currency they're denominated in because if it's a weak currency, they're just going to earn a lot more in that weak currency." — Doug Casey (14:46)

  • Producing gold mines are "coining money" at current prices.

• Plan B Destinations for Australians:

  • Norfolk Island and New Zealand (South Island preferred), considering mildness and manageability.
  • Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, praised for affordability and lifestyle, though notes regional differences in culture.

• Investment Timeframes:

  • Ideally, hold forever (Buffett-style), but resource stocks are cyclical—look for 3–4 year cycles.

Global Real Estate & Silver Questions

[19:59–25:16]

• Morocco as an Investment (Listener Experience):

  • Listener surprised by Tangier’s development and relative value.
  • Doug cautious—acknowledges change but lacks up-to-date knowledge; sees Morocco as mellow among Muslim countries.

• Silver Storage:

  • Bars are more practical and cheaper for offshore storage; coins/junk silver for personal possession.

    "Bars would be the way to go because it's a speculative vehicle and I'm sure you're holding those bars because you're looking for silver to go to $200 an ounce, which it probably will." — Doug Casey (24:52)

Should the U.S./Trump Intervene Abroad Against WEF ‘Stooges’?

[25:16–27:58]

• Doug’s Take:

  • It’s not the U.S.’s business to interfere in other countries, even if their governments are corrupt or oppressive.

    "Our business is to look out for number one and not dissipate our wealth and take a chance on getting into a war because we don't like somebody else's stupid government." — Doug Casey (26:56)

  • Cites the practical impossibility of changing multiple governments through intervention.

• Assessment of U.S. Allies:

  • Lambasts Canada, Australia, UK, and to a lesser extent, New Zealand, for authoritarian drift.

Return to the Fast Boat Incident & U.S. Decline

[27:58–33:20]

• Recap of U.S. Strike:

  • Trump proud of "decisive action," but Doug sees it as criminal and setting a bad precedent.

    "It really is shocking that just because... There's a boat moving fast, moving from Venezuela... just blow them up. This is actually, it's a crime." — Doug Casey (28:30)

  • Proper procedure would have been interception, not destruction.
  • Doug strongly disclaims proxy for the U.S. to kill at random.

    “There are some people that just need killing, quite frankly, but I don't give the US Government my proxy to go out and killing people at random.” — Doug Casey (30:14)

• Broader Implications:

  • Rebranding "Defense Department" back to "War Department" is simply calling a spade a spade.
  • The U.S. is likened to "Wile E. Coyote," over the cliff but not yet fallen—a “fool’s paradise.”

What Comes Next – and What To Do

[33:20–34:52]

• The Outlook:
  • Predicts the next year will bring recognizable, unpleasant change—especially in markets and economic stability.
  • Advises individuals to focus on their own safety and well-being:

    "Sauve qui peut. He who can should save himself." — Doug Casey (33:37)

• Recommended Preparation:
  • Casey recommends his own book on preparation (not named but implied as essential).
  • Individual and family responsibility prioritized above activism or political solutions.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "If the US Government does it, oh, okay, it's fine. But if anybody else had done it..." — Doug Casey (00:19)
• "There might have been some interesting information that could have come out of it from these guys and it was just, it was just murder, that's all." — Doug Casey (01:56)
• "I think Trump might be getting out of control, quite frankly, truly out of control." — Doug Casey (04:54)
• "Who do you want to choose? Hitler or Stalin?" — Doug Casey (06:44)
• "Stock market is now at one of its all time highs... so is this a good time to be in the stock market?" — Doug Casey (08:13)
• "[Commodities are] the only thing in the world that's still cheap today." — Doug Casey (11:55)
• "If people don't own it, they can't sell it." — Attributed to Chris McIntosh per Doug (12:46)
• "[U.S. government is] exactly like Wile E. Coyote when he runs off the cliff and keeps running." — Doug Casey (31:47)
• "He who can should save himself." — Doug Casey (33:37)

Key Takeaways

• Military Overreach: U.S. foreign interventions are setting dangerous norms and represent creeping authoritarianism.
• Market Overvaluation: Stocks are perilously priced; real value now lies in obscure, resource-based assets.
• Self-Reliance: Individuals must take personal responsibility and prepare, as politics and collective solutions lag behind reality.
• Cynicism on Politics: Choices between leaders likened to picking between "Hitler or Stalin"—no optimism for meaningful reform.
• Practical Prep: Seek safe haven destinations, diversify outside mainstream assets, and prioritize real assets and personal freedom.

Segment Timestamps

• 00:01–07:12: Fast boat incident & U.S. military policy
• 07:15–14:04: Signs of market crash & investment strategies
• 14:07–19:59: Currency risk, Plan B countries, time horizons
• 19:59–25:16: Morocco real estate & silver storage advice
• 25:16–27:58: U.S. foreign policy toward WEF-aligned governments
• 27:58–33:20: Return to fast boat, U.S. decline, consequences
• 33:20–34:52: What to do now & personal preparation
• 34:53–35:01: Wrap-up

This summary aims to capture the essence, tone, and advice provided in the episode for listeners seeking actionable insights and unfiltered commentary from Doug Casey.