← Doug Casey's Take
Doug Casey's Take
In a World of Chaos, Let’s Talk Solutions
00:31:25
Navigating Future Uncertainties: Gold, AI, and Crisis Investing with Doug and Matt In this episode, Doug and Matt tackle critical questions from their community concerning the future of gold ownership in a world trending towards digital currencies,...
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- [00:01]
A
All right. Good morning, Doug. We are a little rushed for time because you have a plane to catch to head back to the U.S. but we want to answer some questions for members of the file. So here we go. Number one, one question about owning physical gold in your possession for the future. How are you going to redeem it outside of this predicament that we're encountering of this oncoming stablecoins and the digitization of FinTech? It seems that stablecoin plan will invade the entire world, Global south included, not only the US and so the, I guess the question is, you got gold and you need to, you need some cash for whatever reason, what do you do?
- [00:42]
B
Well, that's kind of the wrong question. I mean the question ought to be what are these people that get bagged with the digital currencies, government digital currencies, what are they going to do? So you've got to turn that question on its head, quite frankly. And from a practical point of view, I suspect that as time goes on and as the monetary system becomes less stable, growing numbers of people, maybe it'll never be large, but growing numbers of people will actually want to settle things up with each other using gold coins or silver coins because I don't think anybody with any sense is going to want to use these government stable coins to any great degree. And I'd say don't worry about it. What do you think, Matt?
- [01:40]
A
I think that there will be opportunities to sell the gold outside of the system if you want to, you know, barter or buy purchasing directly with gold. I think, you know, or maybe in other currencies that are not, you know, these stable coins that still exist. And also I think, you know, you may want to be able to, you may want money in the system. And I doubt they're going to outlaw the sale of gold. And you know, maybe, you know, maybe you do need some money that is in the system and so you could sell it for those stable coins.
- [02:15]
B
But maybe they will outlaw the sale of gold. I mean, Trump won't, I wouldn't think. But whoever comes after him, especially if it's a Democrat, I'd come up with some goofy idea.
- [02:29]
A
Well, I doubt, I doubt they'll do it in Asia though, which means there's a market for it.
- [02:34]
B
Yeah, yeah, that's right. Well, like Yogi Berra said, predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. But we don't predictions around here, we make forecasts which are totally different. Right.
- [02:51]
A
If we had, if we had a supercomputer though, I think we could do.
- [02:54]
B
Predictions well, or even a Magic 8 ball, but I don't even want to them.
- [02:59]
A
We don't have it. All right, let's see. This is, I guess the kind of question for me is this, Matthew. I have questions about international banking. I expect those questions might be answered in your October conference in Uruguay. Is that still open or now filled? And if filled, do you have any plans to do it again? It's not filled yet. It's open for about another 10 days. So if you're interested, now is the time to. Now's the time to sign up to join us. And you can do that by going to Crisis investing link at the top of the page called Uruguay Plan B Conference. Click on that and sign up. And yeah, we are going to talk about international banking and there are still. There are people who will take foreign clients still. Not to say it's not a pain in the ass on the bank's part to do it, but there are banks that do it and we'll be covering that.
- [03:57]
B
Aren't we going to have a representative from one or two banks that will accept American clients also? Or not?
- [04:05]
A
We will likely have them there. If not. I know Jane sent out a report to all of the people who had already signed up about the banking options in Uruguay and the process of signing up for accounts for them. So she sent all that information to people in advance so they understand it. So. But whether or not it makes sense to have a bank representative there, we're still deciding. Because if it's. Is it going to be that much more useful but you know, to have them there or not, we're still deciding, but they could be. And there's another bank that you've been sending me some emails about that it's not an Uruguayan bank, but it's another foreign bank that I have a few questions on. And if the questions come back as I expect, then it's possible that we would have them there.
- [04:53]
B
Yeah, they're very, very substantial. So it would work. Maybe.
- [04:59]
A
Okay, so next question is, have either of you heard of Jim Thompson? He's an American who revitalized the Thai silk industry and was former oss.
- [05:11]
B
I certainly heard about Jim Thompson when I was living in Thailand. And I love these mysterious and exotic people. There aren't enough of them running around the world. Well, there probably are, but the nature of them always changes over time.
- [05:28]
A
So not all of them have a museum, which apparently this guy does in Bangkok.
- [05:34]
B
Yeah, well, he's joined the choir invisible. And he's one of those Guys that you would have loved to have met. But there's a new, there's a new crop every year and you want to try to meet them. It's a good reason to, you know, get out of Podunk or wherever it is you're living in the US or Canada and try to touch base with these people.
- [06:02]
A
It's remark. It's remarkable who you can meet in a five star hotel in any weird location in the world, actually who you'll run into. I found that extraordinary. So.
- [06:14]
B
Yeah, that's right. That's right. In, in the bars of, in exotic cities where there aren't a lot of tourists, that's, that's where you tend to meet them.
- [06:27]
A
So our next question is, he says, I'm seeing supply shortages in parts as simple as medical G tubes and cabling wires and connectors for medical devices. It's been getting worse for months. And I network with other CEOs and they're having the same issue multiple layers down into their supply chain. Nobody is talking about it publicly. If Doug has any insights from his group of connected global individuals and I would love to hear what the heck's going on. I've been wondering if it's tariffs because orders got parked to wait for a favorable time and in the shifting tariffs and the order clerks lose track of the parked orders. But I'm also hearing that everybody is on credit hold and nobody is paying on time. All up and down the supply chain. This can't be just happening in my world.
- [07:22]
B
I don't think it is. We were talking about that the last time or the time before I believe what we met. It makes all the sense in the world when, when chaos is being imposed on the market for political reasons. Tariffs are. Well, it's like that very funny little thing we put up the other day about, you know, copies for six hours of the day. You know, tariffs up 500%. No, I won't do it. Well, maybe I will. Back and forth. How can you plan so? Of course everything's going to get screwed up.
- [08:01]
A
If I'm running a company, the what I'm doing is I'm putting things on ice until I can understand until at least it's legible what's happening.
- [08:11]
B
Yeah, yeah, because you know that these things that are happening aren't going to make things better for you. So it's better to step off the field so you don't get stomped on until you see where things are going.
- [08:25]
A
So I think this is just the beginning what this guy is seeing. I guarantee lots of other people are seeing. And it's. We're at the very beginning of it, not the end.
- [08:36]
B
Yeah. And just as an addendum to that, it's that this is, in good measure, Trump's fault, creating this chaos. But to defend Trump, I mean, we want to be evenhanded about this. Destroying some areas of the US Government, like usaid, which is wonderful, that creates chaos. So there's room for creating chaos, but not in the areas that he's reaching into.
- [09:11]
A
And I will say is that my original thesis on all of this back in February was that they were going to use tariffs as a bludgeon against other countries in order to get them to come to the table in their Mar a Lago accord in order to reconstitute a new financial and trading system. And the truth is, is that the more chaotic it is, the more likely it is you're going to be able to bring those people to the table. Now, that's me in the most positive way I could view what's happening, but it was predictable based upon the, you know, what's been done in the past with tariffs. The tariffs are not the goal. Tariffs are the instrument by which the goal is achieved. And. But you got to get everybody so screwed up by it that they're willing to come to the table and renegotiate totally new terms on everything. So maybe it's working, you know, maybe.
- [10:09]
B
I don't know, maybe it's working. But then again, the whole world is becoming more and more unstable, militarily and demographically, sociologically, financially, all the debt in the world and so forth, it's making it more and more unstable. And I haven't personally mentioned the concept of a greater depression here for some months, but a depression is a period when most people's standard of living drops significantly. And not being able to get the things that you need either to make more stuff like the questioner mentioned, or just buy more stuff because you need it. That's one aspect of the greater depression, in addition to the fact that old distortions and misallocations are liquidated, which is chaotic. So, yeah, you got to see more of this stuff in the next few years. Next few years are going to be. Well, this is what they call the fourth turning. And it makes sense to me. It's going to be wild and unplugged.
- [11:20]
A
And our depression is. I. I normally just think of it as a scarcity of. Of money, but in truth, I guess it's a scarcity of all things.
- [11:30]
B
Yeah. And scarcity of money well, the government's going to know how to solve that problem.
- [11:36]
A
Yeah, but they cannot solve the scarcity of actual.
- [11:40]
B
No, no. And they're the ones creating the chaos that is a one element of a depression. So. Yeah, hold on to your hat.
- [11:51]
A
Let's see what does Doug see happening after the gold rush and the AI rush? Is it mass unemployment? Deflation, semi forced euthanasia, like what they're doing in Canada? Or is it utopia on the horizon? Robots might take a while, but it seems like office workers are heading for UBI serfdom. And what would Doug consider worth investing in at this point? Or is it a play it by year scenario?
- [12:19]
B
Yeah, well my answer to that question would be all of the above. The question is in what sequence? I have no doubt. Not that I'm on the cutting edge of developing robots or AI, but I try to keep track of these things and I don't have any doubt that within five years we're going to have our own little terminators. And of course the government's going to have real terminators too. So that's going to happen. And so many areas where people are working, shuffling papers, that's got to go out the window. Look, this is the, what we're looking at, I think is the biggest thing that's happened and we're still in the early stages of it since the Industrial revolution when everybody had a cottage industry, which sounds really nice, but a cottage industry in those days where you had a, a hand powered loom in your crappy little cottage where you were making fabrics and all those people became unemployed and could only move to the city where they could get jobs in hellish factories with giant looms and so forth. So it was really bad for them, but it was good overall because now fabrics became very, very, very cheap. So it's chaos.
- [13:55]
A
Yeah, I think, yeah. The second. I agree, it's the, I guess they consider the second industrial revolution when it really hit America for starting from like 1870, I don't know, for, you know, really 50 years it continued, you know, but this one's going to be much faster than that was, I think. But like in 1870, the single best, like based upon past experience, the single best situation you could have had was like a small scale family farm because greatest source of continuous wealth, most likely to persevere, going to be fine. And 57% of Americans were all that. And that was virtually wiped out. Now less than 1% of Americans are farmers. But that transition happened super fast where those people had to abandon the farm and move into the city and the equivalent is white collar jobs. Today they're just going to dry up and blow away like the reader suggests. And I think that's going to happen super fast. Which is why you know, to do a plug in our new book which comes out on Monday called the Preparation should be able to buy on Amazon. We talk specifically about a plan that kind of it future proofs you, it makes an individual so that they're not going to be destroyed by the AI future that is coming that is right here. So if you have kids or grandkids and they're going to college, odds are they're they're studying for something that is going to leave them well first with a mountain of debt but totally incapable to deal with the future.
- [15:29]
B
Yeah, you're absolutely right. The only defense against something as radical as what's going on is to make sure that you personally as an individual know as much as possible and are as flexible as possible to adjust to whatever is going to happen because we don't really know how it's going to sort out. And that's what the Preparation is all about. So in fact there were a couple of folks that came over for dinner to my place here in BA last night. We were talking about this book and he made one of, one of them made an observation that said, well, you know, this book, the preparation should not just be for young men of college age, it should also be for anybody that is experiencing, experiencing a middle aged crisis, which is psychological and economic. Because actually who wants to hire a middle aged person? Well, nobody, not really anybody wants to for all kinds of reasons. And so this is a period of major change and you've got to prepare yourself for it so you can roll with the punches.
- [16:53]
A
That's right. I just think that most middle aged people are less likely to do the things that a young person would do, you know, and could do through the preparation. But if they've got the, if they've got the courage that a young man has, you know, they could definitely do it and it would absolutely prepare them for what's coming.
- [17:14]
B
Yeah, this is one of the causes for the so called fentanyl crisis. And my understanding, I've never tried fentanyl from a recreational point of view, but it's an opiate and opiates make you feel warm and comfortable and you don't care about the outside world. So the reason that all. And these are basically middle aged white people that are the crux of fentanyl deaths at this point, because they Overdo it. And the reason that they're taking the fentanyl is to escape from the world and to feel good. So the fentanyl crisis is one symptom of the huge changes that are happening and how uncomfortable it is not to be able to survive. Well, you got to do something about it or else die like a dog in the gutter.
- [18:11]
A
That's right. And that's what we cover in the preparation. Yeah, that's what we cover. So. And then the last part of his question. What would Doug consider worth investing in at that point? Or is it a play by air scenario in this case? I'm gonna do another sale pitch. You should absolutely subscribe to Crisis Investing because our two major themes that we're dealing with this year are, number one, the dramatic reshaping of the global trade and financial system that Trump has underway right now. And number two, this AI revolution that is hitting us faster than anyone can imagine. And we specifically outline the stocks to invest in given all of that. So if you want to know, subscribe to Crisis Investing.
- [18:54]
B
I don't know. This isn't the forum to talk about some of these weird little stocks. I'm not talking about mining stocks. I'm talking about weird little high tech stocks that both you and I have established reasonable positions in.1. And is it going to be the next hundred billion dollar company? I don't know. But we started buying it around 75 cents US so. But I hate to talk about things like that because they're small, liquid, illiquid markets.
- [19:26]
A
Well, this one's very liquid.
- [19:28]
B
Yeah, that's true, it is. But what I'm really afraid of is the old dictum, high tech big wreck. Because in high tech there's so many things that we not only don't know, but we can't know about how a technology will wake up. Will, will work out. But I guess I've got the bit in my teeth about the stock and I do. It seems like the market does as well, but we haven't announced it.
- [19:56]
A
Yeah. Well, here's what we're going to do. One way or another, we're going to do a write up on this particular stock that's going to go out to Crisis Investing subscribers. It might, it's not going to be, probably won't be a whole newsletter like we normally do, but I'm going to get something out within the next week about that. This stock, which I think is incredible and literally changes everything. It's, it's like science fiction stuff. Yeah, it really is. So if you want to know about that? Subscribe to Crisis Investing. So we're pitching this time, guys. Just get. We don't do it usually, but we're doing it this time. The book comes out on Monday.
- [20:30]
B
I.
- [20:30]
A
We're get. But we're gonna do it.
- [20:32]
B
I agree, but I, I hate to be pitching this because it's, you know, it's, it seems so sleazy to be pitching stuff, but God damn it, if, if we've lucked out and find some, found something that really is a hundred to one shot from here, what are you gonna tell people about it? And it blows up in your face. Well, that's embarrassing. But it's happened before, plenty of times, believe me. But I hate to, you know, it's a conundrum. I don't know.
- [21:03]
A
Yeah, and here's the thing. You know, we get criticized, Doug, all the time for not. For talking about the problems, but not talking about solutions. Yeah, that was all the time. So here's the solution. Number one, you need to internationalize yourself. Come to the conference in October. You want to know? That's how you get the first step that. Come, come to the conference. We'll show you. Number it's a pain in the ass to come to. Ergo, I totally get it. But if you want to, if you really understand the need to internationalize yourself, come to the conference.
- [21:33]
B
Yeah, frankly, you've. You've got to get on a plane and see other ship. And the other thing is, you'll meet other people that are thinking the same way, which are people you want to meet, and that's valuable.
- [21:44]
A
So.
- [21:44]
B
Yeah, you're right. I'm sorry to cut you off.
- [21:46]
A
But number two, the air revolution is coming, and it's probably less so for our viewers than it is for your children and grandchildren. And they, if they follow the route that you likely followed, the university route, they're screwed.
- [22:02]
B
Yeah, they are.
- [22:03]
A
And the preparation not only prepares them for the world as it is today, it prepares them for the future in a way that is far and away above their peers, who will no doubt follow the traditional route, go to college and find themselves in a bad situation. So that's a solution. And the third one is how do you actually invest in this stuff? But we don't talk about it here because we talk most. We talk in general terms here, but we talk about specific terms in crisis investing. So that's where our solutions are. So if you want solutions, you can find them. And we're always focused on them because these are all problems that we are experiencing just like all of our viewers. Right. I mean, that's where it comes from. I mean, the Preparation was written because my son was 18 years old and he needed to know an answer of what to do. And it's a book that you'd been wanting to write for well over a decade. So. But it got written because we had. I had a particular problem I really wanted to solve. So.
- [23:08]
B
Yeah. Anyway, so the book will be out Monday. So if you call Amazon today, they won't know what you're talking about. Am I right?
- [23:15]
A
There's nothing there whatsoever and I don't have any control over it. But as of wherever you are in the world at 12:01am you will see it. And it's available there. And it's done in two forms. You know, we expect to have the, the ebook also available by then, but there's the paperback and then there's the hardcover. And the hardcover is expensive, is 100 bucks, $99. We make almost nothing on it the way these things work. But it's also beautiful. It's beautiful. There's a soft cover that's $29.99, and then the ebook will be something less than that. So audiobook also is coming. So. But that'll be available on Monday wherever you are in the world through Amazon. So let's see. Last question. No, actually two more questions here. Uruguay's buyer base is shifting. Is this the kind of diversification that marks the start of a longer bull cycle? He says. In 2020, Punta del Este's foreign buyer market was heavily concentrated in Argentines and Brazilians. Four years later, Europeans are steadily growing their share. US And Canada buyers have gone from almost zero to a visible slice. And I like to think that you and I are personally responsible for a good part of that slice, I have to say. And Brazil's share is slipping, lowering dependency on one neighbor's economy, he says. To me, this looks like insulation against single country risk and a foundation for resilience. If Argentina wobbles, do you see this as a strong Plan B signal or just a temporary rotation?
- [25:03]
B
I think it's a strong Plan B signal. If I was a European especially, well, it doesn't matter. But the Europeans are in the worst shape of the three countries. Canadian or American or European. If I was a European, I would definitely make plans to get the hell out of Europe. For a bunch of different reasons. Your governments over there are really turning authoritarian or worse, locking people up for thought crimes. Actually, it's incredible.
- [25:34]
A
And rolling out continuous new taxes to exit now all of a sudden.
- [25:40]
B
Yeah. And, and the migration of alien people into Europe is changing the character of the continent in all kinds of ways. So, no, Europe is totally, I mean, I guess it'll recover. It's been around for thousands of years and it'll still be around in the future, but it's, it's, it's in for really, really tough times. But so is Canada and the U.S. so, yeah.
- [26:05]
A
Okay, last question for you here today, Doug. Does Doug have any informed speculation about what happens with geopolitical and financial dynamics coming out of months and years of chaos caused by Trump, who's been paying off countries and people to force control and cooperation with his strong arm tactics? And last sentence, he says tariffs and other actions look to be causing countries to distrust and dislike each other more than when Trump is gone. All that pent up anger will then be free to be expressed. Or is it the opposite effect when the strong man leaves the stage? Do strong men have a good history of having good secession events, succession events?
- [26:54]
B
Yeah. No, they don't. I mean, Hitler was a strong man. That didn't end well. Mussolini was a strong man. And we know how he wound up. Almost, almost always it ends back.
- [27:09]
A
Muammar Gaddafi.
- [27:11]
B
Oh, that's, that's a tragic example. And of course, sometimes there are happier endings. Like when Pol Pot left the position of power in Cambodia. His best buddy Hun Sen took over and he was much milder than Pol Pot was, but still not good. I don't know, It's. Well, of course, Mao was a strong man and things got much better under Deng. These things are unpredictable. But, you know, people don't want to live in an unpredictable world. It's, it makes it very hard to build and produce and enjoy when any kind of, you know, chaos can hit you from out of left field and destroy everything that you, you have or thought you had. We're going into a time like that. It's pretty obvious. I hope I'm dead wrong. Okay.
- [28:12]
A
Yeah, I don't think, I don't think the strong man or the, the big man, as Bonner puts it, I don't think the big man politics ends with Trump. I think he's the beginning.
- [28:23]
B
He's the beginning. Just like with the Roman Empire. I mean, Augustus wasn't the end after the chaos of the late republic. He was just the beginning of one strong man after the other. They were called emperors.
- [28:36]
A
Yeah.
- [28:38]
B
What's this about? Trump wants to, whether he wants to or somebody's promoting turning out a $500 bill, which is a good idea, but with Trump's picture on it.
- [28:50]
A
Well, that's still. You know, all this is kind of a lot of rumor, and who knows? But, I mean, he did there has definitely been floated the idea of printing a $500 bill. And I do think that. That clearly we should have a 500 bill. I mean, it's, you know, the way the money's been devalued, that the largest denomination is 100 at this point is insane. When we've had. We used to print $100,000 bills.
- [29:21]
B
That was just for settlement between Federal reserve banks, but $500,000 bills back when that was real money, were in circulation.
- [29:32]
A
500,000.
- [29:34]
B
Oh, $500,000 bills.
- [29:36]
A
Okay, okay, okay. All right. So it makes perfect sense for us to have a $500 bill. To have Trump's face on it is a sign of big man politics, I guess.
- [29:47]
B
Yeah, yeah, it's. It would be a big mistake to put a currently serving president on the money, just like it was a big mistake back in 1909 when they replaced the Indian head penny with the Lincoln penny. I mean, what is this? You're. You're putting a political leader on your money only 50 years after he's died. You know, it's. Having a political leader on your money anyway is a bad idea. You should have an Indian or a buffalo or something.
- [30:23]
A
Symbols of America. Some.
- [30:25]
B
Right.
- [30:25]
A
Symbols. Symbols that have meaning to Americans, you know, they don't have. But not. Not cult of personality, like the long line of Roman emperors.
- [30:34]
B
Yeah, yeah. But we're definitely moving in that direction.
- [30:39]
A
Okay. Yeah, I guess that's it for today, Doug. Just a handful of questions, and like I said, I know you're tight on time, but I think we'll just wrap it up there, let you get to your flight, and we'll be back next Wednesday with more. And don't forget Monday, search on Amazon for the preparation.
- [30:56]
B
Yeah, I can't wait to see how the market responds to our efforts.
- [31:00]
A
I can't wait till you get that book in the hands of a young, ambitious man like my son and see what they do with it. That's what I can't wait to.
- [31:09]
B
Yeah, yeah, we need millions more like maximum doing the kind of things that Maxim is doing.
- [31:17]
A
Yeah. Awesome. All right, Doug, thanks so much for your time. I appreciate it. Have a safe flight.
- [31:22]
B
Thanks, Matt.