Iran & Epstein Fallout

Summary

Doug Casey's Take – “Iran & Epstein Fallout” (February 20, 2026)
Host: Matthew Smith | Guest: Doug Casey

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran, the ongoing fallout from the Epstein scandal, shifting dynamics in mainstream media, the state of U.S. politics and executive power, and a rapid-fire Q&A covering global investment risks and societal trends. Doug Casey, known for his candid and often controversial libertarian viewpoints, unpacks these topics with his trademark acerbic wit and philosophical detachment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Aggression Toward Iran and Executive Overreach

• Escalation in the Middle East:
  Smith opens by highlighting near-inevitable U.S. military action against Iran ([00:02]). Doug frames the situation as both reckless and unnecessary, criticizing Trump as "Israel’s puppet at this point" ([00:51]), and questioning the rationale behind U.S. involvement:
  • “Absolutely zero threat to the United States. Although obviously Netanyahu would like to see Iran taken out because it's the only threat to Israel. So Trump is Israel's puppet at this point. It's absolutely disgusting.” – Doug Casey ([00:51])
• Congressional Abdication:
  The hosts discuss the absence of Congressional oversight or public debate:
  • “There's a total surrender to executive power… Congress sucks.” – Matthew Smith ([02:14])
• Risks of Escalation:
  Doug warns of the danger: Iranian retaliation could threaten U.S. naval assets and destabilize Israel, potentially even implicating nuclear weapons ([04:06]). He underscores the complexity of Iran's ethnic makeup and the risk of full-scale regional destabilization ([03:05]).
• Military Costs & Futility:
  Smith comments on the logistical strain and immense costs, e.g., “$3 million apiece” Tomahawk missiles ([05:51]), and the supply chain fragility (rare earths) ([06:09]).

2. Media Landscape: Washington Post and “Woke” Institutions

• Washington Post’s Layoffs:
  Casey notes that after Bezos limited political endorsements, the Post suffered mass subscriber loss and newsroom resignations ([07:28]). Recent cuts gutted nearly half the newsroom. Doug attributes these woes to the Post’s previous “nutball crazy leftist” tilt, now shifting to centrist blandness ([09:08]).
  • “If Bezos is smart—and he is—AI will do most of the paper in the future.” – Doug Casey ([09:52])
• Survival of Traditional Media:
  The hosts ponder if the Post can compete with other left-leaning outlets like the NYT when stripped of its distinctiveness ([10:24]).

3. Societal Reflections: Scouts, the Fed, and Political Theater

• Scouting America (formerly Boy Scouts):
  Casey is surprised the merged Scouts aren’t as “woke” as expected, praising the practical approach of the U.S. Navy granting Eagle Scouts E3 status ([10:56]).
• Federal Reserve Satire:
  On potential appointee Kevin Warsh, Doug quips about preferring “Kevin Costner,” emphasizing that the Fed chair’s main qualification is “being a skilled and practiced enthusiastic liar” ([13:16]).
  • “Whoever is going to be the head of the Federal Reserve has got to be a skilled and practiced enthusiastic liar and doesn't have to know anything about economics.” – Doug Casey ([13:16])
• Cabinet “Typecasting”:
  Doug derides Trump’s appointment strategy as focused on physical presentation over merit ([14:33], [17:51]).

4. Epstein Scandal Fallout

• Pam Bondi’s Congressional Testimony:
  Casey describes Bondi as “an aging Barbie doll,” mocking her deflection tactics in testimony and Trump’s public praise for her combative style ([16:05]).
• Epstein Release & Implications:
  Doug opines that Trump—and many elites—are deeply implicated and expects a sprawling international scandal when unredacted files emerge ([18:38]).
  • “It’s clear to me, for lots of reasons, that Trump is up to his eyeballs…” – Doug Casey ([18:38]) He notes the transatlantic nature of the scandal, connecting it to European aristocracy and banking dynasties ([19:53]).
• Societal Detachment:
  Both agree on the virtue of living in the Southern Cone (Uruguay/Brazil) to stay “insulated” from such tumult ([20:27]).

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Q&A HIGHLIGHTS (with Timestamps for Key Segments)

• Deagle Report and Population Collapse ([21:20]):
  Dismissal of original predictions; Casey skeptical as numbers haven’t materialized. “Yogi Berra said, it ain’t over till it’s over.” (Casey, [22:59])

• US Dollar and Immigration ([23:30]):
  Mass emigration from US is unlikely, as alternatives are lacking. US remains “the bastion of Western civilization…as bad as things are everywhere else” ([23:46]).

• Retiring/Migrating to El Salvador ([26:45]):
  Cautiously negative: While safer under Bukele, underlying social issues persist. “It still has all of it, doesn’t have the gangs…That seems to me to be a time bomb waiting to go off.” (Casey, [26:54])

• Europe’s Capital Gains Tax (Netherlands) ([32:19]):
  36% tax on unrealized gains is “so destructive” and “incredibly stupid.” Advisors should “get out (of Holland) at that point” ([33:29]).

• Rare Earth National Security ([35:28]):
  US has not meaningfully replaced China in rare earth processing; years away from supply chain sovereignty ([36:15]).

• US Legal Environment & Lawfare ([36:57]):
  Anecdotes on personal experience with frivolous lawsuits. AI is set to transform law both as a tool and a threat, with cost bifurcation between elite lawyers and the public ([39:10]) and speculative use by the IRS for automated audits ([41:04]).

• Democratic Control & Investing ([42:04]):
  If Democrats win control, Casey contemplates greater capital flight due to fears of “wealth seizure.” However, macro realities like debt override administration specifics ([43:00]).

• Seasteading ([44:10]):
  Casey dismisses the viability for most: “It sounds to me like a survival type situation…like a prison type of situation” ([44:57]).

• Buying Property in Hong Kong ([48:04]):
  No current opinion, but reminisces profitable past investment.

• US Stocks Amid Dollar Decline ([49:34]):
  U.S. stock market is “overpriced by every conventional measure;” better value found in gold, silver, and mining stocks ([50:17]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Trump is Israel’s puppet at this point. It’s absolutely disgusting.” – Doug Casey ([00:51])
• “Congress sucks. I don’t know how to explain it.” – Matthew Smith ([02:14])
• “If Bezos is smart and he is smart…I guess AI will do most of the paper in the future.” – Doug Casey ([09:52])
• “Pam Bondi…she’s a stock, a sock puppet, but she’s actually an aging Barbie doll.” – Doug Casey ([16:05])
• “It's clear to me…Trump is up to his eyeballs…” – Doug Casey ([18:38])
• “36% tax on unrealized gains—it's incredibly stupid.” – Doug Casey ([34:04])
• “If the communists take over the US, do I really want to invest in anything in the US?” – Doug Casey ([42:04])
• “Stock market can go higher or it can crash, I don't know…But mining stocks…are very cheap still.” – Doug Casey ([50:15])

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Tone

The conversation is urgent, irreverent, and deeply skeptical of mainstream narratives, political institutions, and corporate media. Doug Casey’s language is iconoclastic, often sardonic; Matthew Smith steers with a mixture of dry humor and concern.

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• Iran conflict analysis and executive overreach: [00:02]–[06:46]
• Washington Post layoffs & AI media future: [07:21]–[10:24]
• Federal Reserve & Cabinet appointee satire: [13:07]–[15:44]
• Epstein fallout and Trump's allies: [15:44]–[20:27]
• Q&A: Deagle Report: [20:44]
• Q&A: Dollar status/immigration: [23:30]
• Q&A: El Salvador, Argentina, censorship rumors: [26:45]–[29:47]
• Q&A: Leasing robots, AI, future of work: [29:55]–[32:19]
• Q&A: Euro capital gains/US policy drift: [32:19]–[34:04]
• Q&A: Legal environment, lawfare, AI in law: [36:57]–[41:45]
• Q&A: Democrat control, investment policy: [42:04]
• Q&A: Seasteading and city-state projects: [44:10]–[47:44]
• Q&A: Hong Kong real estate and final investment takes: [48:04]–[51:18]

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Summary

This episode offers a no-holds-barred critique of contemporary politics, geopolitical risks, and societal trends, with Doug Casey’s signature blend of skepticism, libertarian philosophy, and speculative insight. Key takeaways include warnings about executive overreach, skepticism regarding official narratives and media viability, cynicism about the U.S. political class and legislative process, and advice for navigating global risks—tailored for seasoned and contrarian investors seeking to protect and grow their wealth amid political and financial turbulence.

Transcript

[A]

All right. Good morning, Doug. We got questions from subscribers to Crisis Investing. But first, some big news stuff to talk about, I think, and want to get your take on Iran. It seems like we've kind of crossed that threshold where military action is almost certain at this point. What are your thoughts?

[B]

Yeah, they have at least two carrier groups hanging around the area, but the question I have is they had six carrier groups hanging around when they invaded Iraq. But then again, even Trump isn't so boldly stupid that he would actually launch a land invasion on Iran. Well, it impresses me as likely a good way to have those two carriers sunk and other naval assets. So what's he hoping to accomplish? And why is Iran being attacked there? Absolutely zero threat to the United States. Although obviously Netanyahu would like to see Iran taken out because it's the only threat to Israel. So Trump is Israel's puppet at this point. It's absolutely disgusting.

[A]

Yeah, it seems that way. And you know, the funny thing is there's no congressional involvement, and you don't even hear any outcry from Congress people about it either. You know, it's like they've totally let it all go. Oh, yeah, we have. We're supposed to decide we're going war, but we're just. We're just ignoring that now.

[B]

You're absolutely right. You think that somebody would raise a flag and say, wait a minute, this is a major deal against a. A big country, not just a little dogshit country like invading Grenada or something of that nature. This is a big deal, and nobody's talking about that at all. Trump doesn't have the right to start, which could turn into a major war because the Iranians are lined up with the Russians and the Chinese and getting a lot of weapons from them. It could spin out of control quite easily. Right.

[A]

It's just this. There's a total surrender to executive power, it seems, you know, like Congress sucks. I don't know how to explain it.

[B]

They're completely worthless. They only get elected in order to grift once they're in office and pass out favors so that they can cash in after they're out of office, if not while they're in office, like Pelosi demonstrated, among others.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, it does. Well, so. So it seems like the. The plan is just shock and awe, you know, and try and blow up as much stuff as possible and leave the country. What? Hopefully decapitate the leadership and leave it in, like, completely broken. So it turns into Syria, I guess. I mean, I guess that's the that's the plan.

[B]

I guess the ideal scenario is that the different ethnic groups that constitute Iran, because it's only 50% ethnic Persians, the rest are Afghans and Azerbaijanis and Arabs and Kurds and what have you. So if it breaks up into a bunch of little countries, there won't be any possible threat to Israel anymore at that point, some anyway. It's, we have absolutely no business whatsoever messing around there. And I, I think there's an excellent chance that if Trump launches a real attack, an air attack, missile attack against Iran, Iran will counterattack. And our naval assets, including those two carriers, are genuine risk. And Israel is really going to get beat up as well.

[A]

What are the chances that somebody uses a nuke in this situation?

[B]

Well, only Israel has nukes. They say they.

[A]

And we.

[B]

Right. This is just, you know, this thing will have to be resolved eventually because technology keeps advancing and, you know, as long as Israel's there, there's going to be problems. Right,

[A]

Right. Well, yeah. So you're, you're. So you'd place the odds of this actually happening at what, what, like, what are the chances that it does go forward at this point in your mind? Seems certain to me, but I don't know.

[B]

From what I read, the Iranians aren't about to back down when it comes to doing what they're told. In essence, disarming and otherwise doing what they're told. So Trump has to do something, because you can't put all those assets someplace and then have them go away without getting something for the effort. So the odds are extremely high, I'd say. Yeah.

[A]

I mean, you know, I was reading some stats on the, you know, F22s, and it's like there's 40 hours of maintenance for every flight hour. So imagine all the maintenance that is going to be that required on those aircraft simply just to get them over there. And they've moved over squadron many squadrons of them, so. But it'll probably be the single largest, you know, air assault ever. You know, it seems like it's, it seems like it's going to take it to a whole new level.

[B]

Yeah. And all of the ships will launch Tomahawk missiles, which is kind of like the go to short range missile. And, and Those go for $3 million apiece. That's actually $3 million as well. It's a lot of money.

[A]

Not only that, but to re. To, to recreate them, we require rare earths we cannot get.

[B]

Yeah, I can't wait to see what happens. Well, I really would like to just turn off the news. Because here on the farm in Uruguay, not so far from where you are, although you're in Brazil right now, we're about as safe and insulated and isolated from that stuff as we can get. So why am I cluttering my mind up with it anyway?

[A]

Well, that's a good point. I mean, truthfully, why color your mind with any of this stuff? You know, for entertainment purposes, I guess, a little bit. And, you know. Yeah, that's about the only reason I can justify it.

[B]

I think at this point, monitoring news is just about bad things that are happening to people that you don't know on the other side of the world. That's what the news is. So it's. That's bad karma, actually. And you should expose yourself to bad karma. Things that are meaningful right in front of us. So I'm ashamed of myself. But anyway, having said that, yeah.

[A]

Okay, well, a couple other news items you want to talk about. The Washington Post. What was it about? That.

[B]

Well, as an ex Washingtonian myself, having lived there for many years, I've always subscribed to the Post, and especially living here in Uruguay, they offered a ten dollar annual subscription. So I said, okay, that's cheap enough that I just can't pass it up. So I've been subscribing to it for years. But then you'll recall when Bezos told them that they couldn't endorse Kemala, they lost something like 300,000 subscribers, which kind of broke the back of their subscription model, I think. And then what happened next? A lot of the newsroom resigned because Bezos told them that they, you know, they, they can't like be a local edition of the Daily Worker, which really, it was comical. I mean, before the election I used to read the Post for amusement because. Because these people were absolutely nutball crazy leftists. So a bunch of them left and now a bunch more. What are the statistics on this?

[A]

Well, they. So they announced some recent layoffs. It's a total. One third of their staff was laid off. But the newsroom cuts are really substantial. It's almost. That's roughly 45% of the total newsroom. So all the journalists was cut in the most recent round of layoffs. Which leaves them with, I believe, what is the number, like roughly 425 journalists in the newsroom still, which is hard

[B]

to explain in that they also, I understand, have cut coverage of sports and local news and books. So what the hell are all those people doing there? Especially since most of the news is picked up from Places like Reuters and AI and not AI, but up. Right. So there's a lot.

[A]

Yeah. It's interesting because. Yeah, you have some like really prolific bloggers, you know, who write every single day. And what are these? What are they? I mean, how many original articles do they produce a day at the post? Is it 30 even? I'd be surprised.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. My guess is that, well, if Bezos is smart and he is smart, I guess AI will do most of the paper in the future.

[A]

Yeah, I wonder how much it's doing right now. You got to imagine it's contributing in some way.

[B]

Reading the Post, it's like a normal paper at this point. It has a mildly left of center editorial policy, but it's not rabid as it was a year ago. I mean, it was outstandingly rabid a year ago. Now it's just like an ordinary paper. So.

[A]

Yeah, which, which from a business standpoint, you gotta like wonder if it's. They can survive like that because they look, they lost a big part of their market and if they're just the same as anything else, I mean, do they, will they even survive?

[B]

Might as well just subscribe to the New York Times, which is. Has a notably more leftist bent than the Post does, which is quite a change.

[A]

Right. And you also had something about the Scouts you wanted to.

[B]

Well, I've monitored the Scouts since I was a Scout and since they merged kind of, I guess with the Girl Scouts, it's now Scouting America, not the Boy Scouts of America. So I went on their website to see how woke it had become and I was kind of presently pleasantly surprised that it wasn't from the looks of their website anyway, not noticeably woke. They still have, you know, all of the Scout motto and all this. That's all unchanged from the old days. I don't know what their handbooks and their literature is like, but I thought that was interesting. And as I went down that rabbit hole, I was, I was amused or surprised to find that if you become an Eagle Scout today, the Navy will autumn. Upon entrance to the Navy, you'll become an E3 automatically, which impresses me as a smart policy on the part of the Navy because if you become an Eagle Scout, jump through all the hoops and get the merit badges and the rest of this that you have to do for it. I mean, you have set yourself apart as somebody who's a self starter and can do things and learn things and the right kind of stuff, basically. So that's nice if you, if you want to join the Navy to Come in as an E3 as opposed to a E1 swabby. And I wasn't an Eagle Scout. I'm ashamed to say I was one merit badge short of becoming an Eagle Scout because I, I joined scouting late, didn't get all my merit badges before I went off to high school. And at that point I wasn't, you know. Yeah. Anyway, it doesn't matter.

[A]

Well, I bet you most of the people who are Eagle Scouts are actually on the officer track for the military anyway. Honestly, that's probably where most of them end up.

[B]

Yeah. Same type. That's. That's right, exactly. So anyway, and what do you think

[A]

of as we haven't discussed this Kevin Warsh character, the presumed future head of the Federal Reserve?

[B]

Well, there was Kevin Warsh who is the presumed coming head of the Federal Reserve and there was another Kevin who was a high up fetty. But my view is that why didn't they appoint Kevin Costner? Because whoever is going to be the head of the Federal Reserve has got to be a skilled and practiced enthusiastic liar and doesn't have to know anything about economics. So why not get Kevin Costner and get somebody that can really put forward, you know.

[A]

Yeah, plus bring some, bring some star power to the table.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. So anyway, whoever is, whoever is running the Fed, his, his hands are tied because there's two or three trillion dollars a year that have to be financed, plus all the shorter term debt that's going to roll over before the year's over. Right.

[A]

I think that number is like 10 trillion this year that has to be refinanced.

[B]

Yeah, something like that. Plus $2 trillion of new debt to finance the government's budget deficits. So I don't know what the Federal Reserve can do about that. They have to buy the debt in print. That's all there is to it. So.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Yeah, I think Trump ought to get. One thing about Trump is all the people that he's hired, I think almost all of them are very presentable. They're, they're like, they're Pete Hagseth. Yeah, exactly. That's right. That's, that's the model. And, and Pam Bondi. And none of these people, I mean, no way would he get somebody like Janet Yellen who looks like she should have been working in back of a deli counter slice or Janet Reno. Right. For ag, who is, you know, a hardcore bulldike. I mean, there was one joke I really enjoyed when she was in offices because Chelsea, before she got her nose and chin job was very Homely. And so the joke was, who's. Who's Janet Reno's. Who's Janet Reno's father? Well, Bill Clinton. No, no, no. Who's Chelsea Clinton's father? Well, Bill Clinton. No, it's Janet Reno. Yeah.

[A]

You can see more resemblance there, for sure. Yeah. Well, speaking of Pam Bondi, what do you think of, you know, she's gotten a lot of press recently because of her testimony she had to give to Congress. Congress. She was very combative and, you know, defending the administration, I guess, in the wake of the Epstein fire. Miles.

[B]

Yeah, she's a, I'd say she was a stock, a sock puppet, but she's actually a, an aging Barbie doll. I mean, she really is. And I thought it was so funny, that performance when they, she, she tried to deflect the conversation from the victims of Epstein, too. So what we should be talking about is the dow is at $50,000. And then, then her talking points included the current S and P and the current nasdaq. I mean, this is, this is just so shameful that it's actually stupid. So what I did like, the part I liked about her performance is that she called out these Congress critters and treated them with the respect that they deserve, which is absolutely none, with the exception of Massey, who is perhaps the only decent human being in the House at this point.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, it was. Yeah. Online, the. At least what I saw is that people had pretty negative assessment of her handling of all that. But the next day, Trump, you know, published his true social post. Just totally loved it. Said she crushed everybody there. And, you know, she, she did, she did what was her job, which was by, you know, by Trump, Sanders, which is to go in there and just attack and insult everybody.

[B]

That's right. And her job, as far as he's concerned, is to be a press secretary more than an Attorney general.

[A]

So she's acting more like that because she's doing a lot more press hits than she is indictments. So.

[B]

Yeah. Well, one thing, one good thing that can be said about the Trump cabinet, apart from the fact that they're all just shameful sycophants, is that they're all physically very presentable and typecast.

[A]

Typecasted.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. To give a, give a good impression regardless of what they do or believe, but at first glance, good impression.

[A]

Yeah, totally. I completely agree. Now, what do you, what do you think? So I know you've had some time to at least read some accounts of the Epstein release. Like, what's your take on that whole thing? At this point, based upon what you've, you know, been able to piece together from various summaries and such.

[B]

Well, I have not been a follower and as a. I mean, I've only absorbed all this Epstein stuff because you can't. We're swimming in a cesspool of Epstein stuff, so how can you not become aware of these things? But I haven't gone down a lot of Epstein rabbit holes, but it's clear to me, for lots of reasons, that Trump is up to his eyeballs and thus having been an old friend of Epstein's and having been a notorious ladies man in the old days. So it'll all come out and hopefully all the redactions which will, you know, which have been made after they finally said, oh, there's no Epstein files and there's a couple, you know, couple documents, we'll release them tomorrow. And, you know, they're all. I think when they all come out, assuming they. They will, Trump is going to be up to his eyeballs and hopefully hundreds of other scumbags will as well. And it'll be a major scandal that will rock the US and the world as it is in England with Prince Andrew and, and other important people in Europe more than the US Oddly enough.

[A]

Yeah, it definitely ties to old Europe for sure. I mean, you've got royalties, royalty in there from multiple countries. Obviously the Rothschild banking dynasty is implicated a couple of times directly, you know, for.

[B]

So, yeah, it's too bad that the peasants no longer have torches and pitchforks to take down the Rothschilds and all their, all their, all their friends in Europe. That may or may not happen. Probably not, but.

[A]

Probably not.

[B]

Yeah, I'd like to. Can't wait to see what happens. It's one nice reason to be down here in the Southern cone of South America, where we're as isolated and insulated from this kind of stuff as you can be anywhere in the world, probably.

[A]

Yeah, that's definitely nice. Okay, well, let's get to some of these questions. Doug, the first one says he has a question about the Deagle Report, which we did a podcast that in 2022 actually, and I think it was our most watched one. Well over a million views. And then we were just talking about the report, and as he says in our. In your analysis, you mentioned that you were unsure whether it was a serious forecasting exercise or a demoralization operation. He said, now that we're past 2025, what's your current opinion?

[B]

Well, the Deagle report, of course, projected that many of the world's countries would be seriously depopulated. Like 50% loss of population by about now hasn't happened even with the COVID hysteria followed by the vaccine hysteria. So I don't know, was Deagle's timing off or was it. I don't you have an opinion on this?

[A]

Because I, yeah, I, I mean, you know, I was suspicious of the report only in that it lacked so much detail, you know, there wasn't it just. And these obviously crazy assertions. But you know, in, in the wake of everything that happened with COVID it didn't seem like it was totally impossible, you know, for once. I mean, it would have seemed completely outlandish a few years before that. But in light of what was happening, it did seem like it was possible. And you know, with the, the world still very chaotic situation. So I think unexpected things could occur. You know, still that, that drive this and I, you know, I wouldn't bet on it for sure, but it's weird that he, at least he did indicate directionally through those population statistics, indicated the turmoil the world would be in, I think. And you know, that part is definitely wrong as held true, I think. But yeah, I, yeah, I don't really have any other thoughts other than that.

[B]

Well, I buy that. Like Yogi Berra said, it ain't over till it's over. And it ain't over, in fact is still warming up for at least the next three years while Trump is in office. And I'll just say again, he ain't going to finish out his term. I'll lay money on that. In fact, I ought to go on one of the betting sites and actually lay some money on that before the odds, you know.

[A]

Yeah. Before it becomes self evident, I guess. Yeah.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Okay, next question. If the US dollar loses its global status, will that lead to mass immigration out of the or a voluntary cessation of immigration into the U.S. if so, would that scenario be gradual or sudden?

[B]

Yeah. Immigration out of the U.S. mass immigration. No. To where, to where. Because for what it's worth, the US is still the bastion of Western civilization where as bad as things are everywhere else, Europe, namely, and Canada. Where are you going to go? I mean, mass immigration, I mean, yeah, I think smart people will get a crib in a stable place just in case things go really majorly bad, but bigly bad, I guess I should say, in the era of Trump. But no, that won't happen. And maybe people won't immigrate to the US so much anymore because it's kind of dangerous being a Foreigner in the US you might be rounded up and your papers may not be in order.

[A]

Yeah, I'll say that. A handful of people here in Brazil I've spoken to over the last day all say they, first of all, they love the United States. They always start off like that. And I don't know if it's just to be blight or whatever, but they start off like that, but all end up talking about how downhill the U.S. is, like, and, you know, they also have family members that are in the US they lived. These few people I'm talking about lived in the US at one point. And, you know, they just see the trajectory it's on. And I think it. Part of that is obviously the immigration crackdown that's occurred recently. But, you know, one of the guys I spoke with is, you know, real conservative guy, you know, like a huge Bolsonaro supporter, you know, I think would definitely support Trump. And, you know, he was just saying, talking about how things have just gone downhill in the country, but he lived there for 19 years, and he was just saying, you know, his brother is still there, and he talks about all the inflation and how much harder it's just to get by at this point than it has been in the past. So it's weird. Like, the sense of. The few people I've talked to have all universally had this view that the US Is going downhill, you know, that they can see it and it worries them.

[B]

Yeah, well, I'd have to. I'd have to agree with them. And what's going to turn it around? It's not going to be Trump's import tariffs, for what it's worth. Not that I care about the trade deficit at all, because I have a trade deficit with my local grocery store. Serious trade deficit. It's not really. It's the wrong monitor to look at, but Trump's tariffs, which have created chaos in many ways. The trade deficit is up from what it was a year ago before you put them on. So we've got a headless horseman Running the U.S. right.

[A]

Okay. Doug, what are your thoughts on moving or retiring to El Salvador?

[B]

Well, having been to El Salvador before Bukele took over, I thought it classified. It was an archetypical shithole. Only above Haiti in the Western hemisphere. But Bukele has apparently turned the place around totally. But I don't think I'd want to. I don't think I'd want to, want to go there because it still has all of it. Doesn't have the gangs. You got 60,000 or so gang members locked up and, you know, like chock a block, horrible prisons. How long you could keep those people there? Forever. I mean, that seems to me to be a time bomb waiting to go off. And apparently the place is very safe now because of that. And they're keeping the bad guys off the streets, but it's got a very high population and. And the sociological problems that resulted in the gangs being created I don't think have been solved at all, that I can tell. So despite the fact that it's the crypto capital of Latin America, I guess they say, no, I would not put El Salvador on my shopping list. But go down and take a look and listen. I should go down and take a look under the new regime, see if I change.

[A]

It'd be interesting to see it, but it's like the setup is still unstable. It's new and good, but unstable.

[B]

Yeah. Yeah. Okay. The best place to be in Latin America is a southern con. And that means Argentina. Under. Under. Under. Although I understand. I haven't seen this on paper yet, but I've been told that Melee has passed an executive order that says. And I. That if you say anything against Israel or Jews, that you can get up to 12 years in jail. Have you seen that on paper?

[A]

I haven't, but I'm going to look it up after the call.

[B]

Yeah, it's just at the rumor stage for me, but I understand it's real. That's very disturbing because libertarians don't pass laws about what you can say. Even if what you're going to say is hateful, quote unquote, or horrible.

[A]

Like totally disgusting by every. Everyone agreeing. It's still. That's a statist view. The state should shut you up.

[B]

Yeah. So I'm not as happy with Malay as I used to be, but we'll track this down and find out what degree of trust.

[A]

I don't know if it's true. Yeah, okay. Doug, do you envision a future where people will lease their robot?

[B]

Yeah, that's the only way to do a robot because who's gonna maintain.

[A]

Oh, I. I thought he meant like lease out your robot.

[B]

No, I. Well, it doesn't sound like. I mean, when robots are available, are you going to buy them or lease them?

[A]

Yeah, you probably will. You probably. Actually, they probably will be sold on a. On a plan, you know, anyway, for. For updates and stuff like that. So, yeah, that's probably the way it will be sold. A monthly subscription.

[B]

Yeah, that's the way everything is sold these days, quite frankly, especially I think really high tech thing like a robot. But yeah, they can shut it down for you at any time if they don't like you. So. Probably. Probably.

[A]

Yeah. Yeah.

[B]

I don't know.

[A]

Technology advances enough people will be able to, you know, piece them together like C3PO or something, you know, it's true.

[B]

Hack their own robots so that it's actually theirs.

[A]

Yeah, I think we'll get there eventually, you know, once soon.

[B]

I. I know if we're still doing this in five years, there's an excellent chance both you and I will have robots standing at our shoulder.

[A]

Yeah. I thought I might have had one by the end of last year, but I'm glad I didn't end up buying one because they're so much better now and I just would want to make sure I'd get part of those updates, you know, I wouldn't want to. Yeah, so. But they look very interesting.

[B]

And apparently there's scores of robot companies in China that are all working as hard as they can to turn out fantastic products that, you know, they'll be indistinguishable from humans before this is over. Yeah.

[A]

I don't know if you saw the big Chinese New Year. They had a bunch of them just like they did last year, doing a dance, doing, you know, performing. And the improvements of them are year over year in their dexterity and movement is. It's actually shocking. You're like, is this even real? Watch them do kung fu.

[B]

I've seen the robots kung fu fighting with each other. I mean, it's quite amazing. Yeah.

[A]

Really is so scary. At the same time in the Terminator, you know, future dystopia we're moving into, but, you know, also very cool.

[B]

Arnold turned into a friendly Terminator.

[A]

All right, so with the Netherlands introducing 36% tax on unrealized capital gains, how does Doug think this unfolds? Is this the first step towards socialism in Europe? I think we've already had the first step towards socialism in Europe.

[B]

That's in the distant rearview mirror at this point. But yeah, with increasing.

[A]

Oh, actually I think there's more. So with increasing inflation, national debt, unemployment in the US should we watch out for similar policies making their way to the US in the future? If so, how can we prepare?

[B]

Well, it gets down to having a second or third passport and nationality. And listen, why is anybody still living, Anybody with any money, I should say still living in Holland, if at the end of year, every year they assess what you own? I presume it's just stocks, but God forbid it's real estate too. And tax you on the increase in value which I mean you have to

[A]

get out at that point if you want to, if you want to keep your assets more than over a three year time horizon.

[B]

Right, that's right. And don't forget that Ursula, she Wolf of the eu is from Holland, I believe. She's not a, not a German. That would be she, the ss. This is Ursula, she Wolf of the eu.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, it's, yeah, it's bad. I mean that's so, so destructive. I don't know. I can't even imagine what they're thinking, you know, in doing that. It's so, so self destructive.

[B]

It's incredibly stupid. So.

[A]

Well, they're talking about the same idea of doing something similar, although a lower amount in California.

[B]

Yes. And I'm sure that New York will be next with horrible people that are. The trend is still in motion and Trump is not turning it around. In fact, Trump is accelerating it in many ways. People are forgetting that really the only good thing about Trump is that he's a cultural conservative kind of, kind of. He doesn't, he doesn't, at least in his own mind, he doesn't want to overturn the basis of American civilization. He'd like he says. Right.

[A]

Which, which I, which you know, after Biden, I mean I appreciate that, you know

[B]

he's got some good elements but

[A]

yeah, it's going the wrong direction. Okay, so next question. What real inroads do you think the US has made on replacing Chinese rare earth processing capability anytime soon for a critical mission application? Or is Trump's and company's effort more like trying to get oil out of Venezuelan tar?

[B]

Well, I don't have any so called rare earth plays in my portfolio and we did have in crisis investing recommendation on mp which did that triple for us back then, I think got up, I think 250.

[A]

250%, I think was, I think the peak.

[B]

Yeah, so that's pretty good. But other than that I don't know of any company.

[A]

Do you know? But do you think because they've done a lot of things, made deals the state has with companies and you know, they've announced, you know, the vault and other things. But do you think, what do you think on the ground? Has there been anything really done to really shore up those supply chains that you're aware of?

[B]

I try to keep up to date on who's digging stuff out of the ground or planning to and I unaware of anything major that's happened so far.

[A]

Yeah, it does Take time, though. That's one thing, right? It certainly would take time.

[B]

Yeah, it takes years and years and years. And then after you dig up the rare earth, then you got to process it, which of course is. Everybody's become aware of the fact the processing of these things is as much of a bottleneck as finding the deposit and digging it out.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Since most Western countries are now very litigious and becoming more so by the day, have Matt or Doug ever been law fared against, and if so, how are you able to overcome it?

[B]

Well, I've been very fortunate because my entire life so far, I'm proud to say I have never sued anybody or been sued with the exception of a proxy battle that I was involved in, which isn't quite the same thing.

[A]

Yeah, I got sued once. I would say it was lawfare I used to own. I used to have a domain name business where I was buying thousands of domain names every day, and I'd only hold them for a very limited time, sometimes three or four days, and then I wouldn't own them anymore. It was just kind of this weird loophole, and domains years ago doesn't exist anymore. But one of the domain names I had owned for four days, three years prior, I got sued by some, you know, lawyer who did this professionally, basically out of California, was for violating spam laws. Now, I didn't send any spam and I didn't even own the domain name during the period which the spamming occurred. But because I was in the domain's history, I was the only party that could be identified. He sued me. And what was amazing to me is that you present the information to the judge, you expect him just to, like, toss it. No, it goes on to more levels, you know, so ultimately we track down the person who did the spam and we depose them in order to get myself out of the lawsuit.

[B]

Did they ever compensate you for that good deed or the legal fees that you incurred? Anybody? Nope. No.

[A]

Cost me about 35 grand. I mean, it was a while ago, too, so it'd be a lot more money now, but, yeah, and it was a huge. It was. It was totally unbelievable. I mean, I didn't have no party to it, but I was just drawn into it. So that was one time I caught the term Lawfare didn't exist then, but that's certainly what I'd call it.

[B]

Yeah. And I wonder, with AI turning out to be able to do many things that lawyers do, the degree that's going to replace lawyers, although at the same time, There was an article in one of the papers or someplace yesterday that top lawyers are now competing with each other for how much they can charge. We're talking $3,500 or more an hour.

[A]

I saw that. I saw that. And that's so funny. In the era where you have, you know, the legal costs kind of being pushed down to zero because of AI, but it's all about, you know, the name. You want this guy, you know, and so people will actually pay more. And this is the unique thing, you know, like there's a commodity law work will get pushed down to zero or close to zero. But then for this name brand stuff that has a human behind it, those prices are probably going to go way higher in that environment, actually.

[B]

Yeah. With the bifurcation of society where you have the ultra wealthy, they don't. You really, if you're a multi billionaire, you actually don't care about thousands of dollars an hour. It's, it's a trivial rounding error. But it's the middle class again that is going to get caught in the vice.

[A]

Yeah. You know, and I think about the, you know, this lawyer in California that sued me, this is what he did. Like this was his job, you know, he, for on his own behalf. He would sue people like this all the time. And so, you know, so he made a great livelihood for himself. And you could imagine with AI though how you could automate that, you know, you could automate these filings and you can imagine the lawfare actually could probably, will probably explode in this environment.

[B]

You know, it's actually worse than that. I'm not talking about lawfare per se now, but it's been alleged that the IRS will be able to assign an AI to every taxpayer. So your, all of your financial affairs will be analyzed with an AI and you'll have to deal with an AI

[A]

to pay with a basically a constant digital auditor.

[B]

Yeah, I guess that's going to be possible. This is, this is really, really bad news. Wow.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

I haven't thought about that.

[B]

But you're right, it's, it's logical.

[A]

Yeah, it really is. Wow, that's, that's terrible. Okay, next question. If Democrats gain unified control next cycle, would you change your current portfolio allocations in any material way?

[B]

God. So maybe getting more out of the US I was going to say, if the communists take over the U.S. do I really want to invest in anything in the US and even though it's still the most relatively free and productive country in the world, it's a real, it's A real conundrum. It's a real problem.

[A]

Yeah. I guess what you worry about is you worry about the legal changes they might make and the wealth seizure stuff that would probably occur. But in terms of set that aside, you know, fundamentally we're betting on, you know, economic realities occurring, you know, so they'll occur under every administration. I mean, the debt is unserviceable, the dollar must be diminished in order to possibly stave off collapse. And in those cases, portfolio works.

[B]

Yeah. And maybe people like Peter Diamondis are right that it's going to be so prosperous because of AI and robots and the things that they create that a lot of this will become academic. I don't rule that out.

[A]

Yeah, I don't rule that out.

[B]

That's that I'm not selling my gold anytime soon.

[A]

Yeah. It's just that in between period where we are today and that period of abundance that is going to be quite brutal no matter what. I mean, just like the Industrial revolution. Right. The people, like everyone got reoriented at the end of it and was maybe more prosperous afterwards, but there was a lot of destruction in between.

[B]

Yeah. Yeah. And I think that's the area we're moving into right now, politically and financially and economically and probably militarily. You can see them right now.

[A]

Certainly does. Let's see. Doug, what do you think of seasteading?

[B]

I'm not crazy about boats, frankly. I hate the idea of a cruise ship. Maybe I just hate the idea of the kind of people that seem to show. Yeah, that's it. I don't know. Look, anything's possible if you have enough capital to make your standard of living what you'd like it to be.

[A]

Yeah. You'll have a tr. You'll have a major trade deficit though.

[B]

Yeah. And I. I think seasteading is, as it's been tried is basically you get a sophisticated raft offshore and I don't know if that sounds. That sounds to me like a survival type situation. Yeah.

[A]

Or a prison type of situation.

[B]

That's right. Because after a while, whatever coast guard is in question sees you floating around out there and decides to round you up and there's nothing you can do about it. Right.

[A]

There were some people that tried this off the coast of Thailand a few years ago, if you remember, and they.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, exactly. And I was marginally involved in kind of a semi seasteading thing where this was the Republic of Minerva, which was founded off of 100 miles or so I guess off of Tonga, where they had these reefs that were above water at low tide. And so they were claimed and became the Republic of Minerva. So that's a whole other story where they minted coins which were one ounce of silver and, and grant grains, not grams of gold with the goddess Minerva on it was unique. First gold on silver coin. And I marketed those coins with my friend Bob's. Bob Kephart. And I wonder what they. I don't even have one left. I should buy one just for old timestake because they were so good looking. Republic of 35 coins.

[A]

I'll have to look it up and see if I can find them for sale. All right.

[B]

Anyway, yeah, it's, it's tough in today's world.

[A]

Yeah. Although there is a move for these like, city state ideas among the tech guys. Like, they like this concept and are kind of pushing for it in different ways. You know, where they have different, you know, independent governing zones or whatever. Like what's the place in Honduras?

[B]

Oh, that's called. What is that called?

[A]

Starts with an R, doesn't it?

[B]

No, no, no. It's called. They have had all kinds of problems with the Honduran government because the previous regime said it was fine, but this regime doesn't like it, so they want to break the deal. I don't know what's happening. I actually, I get, I get a blog from them like once a month and I look at it and it's uncertain to me what's going on. But they've built a lot of stuff there and everything, so I don't know,

[A]

it's possible in the future, but you got to have this powerful state supporting it or else it won't work, you know?

[B]

Yeah. Or else, you know, have a, a private military company that stands at the ready to straighten things out.

[A]

Requires a lot of capital to field your own army.

[B]

This is a, this is a multi billionaires game.

[A]

Yeah. All right, two last questions for you, Doug. Hong Kong is still governed by common law and has been through a process of deflation since 1999 and May likely become a financial center for precious metals in China over the next decade. So on this basis and as a former resident, would Doug consider buying property in Hong Kong today?

[B]

Well, having lived there for years and experienced a bull market in Hong Kong real estate. Fantastic bull market, actually. But I'm gone from Hong Kong and I'm not up to date on what prices of Hong Kong real estate are relative to prices of Shanghai real estate or, or whatever. Actually, it would have been better if, if I'd bought something in Macau because that, that became like Gambling Central Las Vegas on steroids. I mean that would have been a real score.

[A]

But you did have a huge score on your Hong Kong real estate. If I recall.

[B]

It went from 85, 000 for a really nice location to I think we sold it for like 1.2 million 10 years later.

[A]

Can't complain about that. Nice place to live the whole time.

[B]

Yeah, it was, it was a great, it was a great deal. I have no idea what that, that apartment which is right on the water above the, you know, we're on the 13th floor above the Hong Kong Yacht Club. So it was a great view of the harbor. Don't know where to know what it's worth now.

[A]

All right, last question. So with the direction the dollar is moving, should we avoid U.S. stocks?

[B]

I don't want to be involved in U.S. stocks.

[A]

But not for, do not for reasons of the dollar, though there are probably other reasons.

[B]

Right. Well, I think they're overpriced by every conventional measure. The US stock market is really overpriced. All that money that's being created by the Fed to finance the deficits has to go someplace. And all that money is making big corporations more profitable than they would be. Normally. So yeah, stock market can go higher or it can crash, I don't know.

[A]

But it's expensive now though. We know that.

[B]

Anyway, I, I think that the gold and silver and other mining stocks by all historical parameters are very cheap still. Still. And they're going to go a lot higher and that's the way I'm playing it.

[A]

Right. And so see what the trend is.

[B]

The trend's my friend. I can see the trend on the big stock market, but it's too close to the end of the story as far as I'm concerned. Right.

[A]

Yeah. And so his question about the, you know, the dollar moving down, so avoiding stocks, I mean in fact the dollar moving down is what is really buoyed stocks. Right, U.S. stocks. Yeah. So theoretically that, you know, like in Weimar, Germany. Right. The stock market went up substantially as they were destroying their currency there. So who knows, we could give.

[B]

I'd rather take advantage of it with mining stocks where it's double buoyed by the strength of gold and silver and underpriced.

[A]

Exactly.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. Okay, well, I'm will come to buy ordinary US Stocks, but you know, I don't want to. I don't feel like doing it at the end of a 40 year bull market particularly. No.

[A]

Seems like bad timing. Okay, well, that's all we have for today, Doug. Thank you very much. And if you want to know, by the way, viewer, I want to know about some specific recommendations we have for stocks in the gold, silver and other resource area. Subscribe to Crisis Investing CrisisInvesting.com that's where we cover that. So, Doug, thank you very much. I hope you have a great weekend.

[B]

Yeah, well, I know you will have a fun weekend up in Sao Paulo. So see you next week when you're back on Back on the Land.

[A]

All right. Thank you, Doug. I appreciate it. Talk to you soon.