Doug Casey's Take – “Iran & Epstein Fallout” (February 20, 2026)
Host: Matthew Smith | Guest: Doug Casey

Episode Overview

This episode delves into escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran, the ongoing fallout from the Epstein scandal, shifting dynamics in mainstream media, the state of U.S. politics and executive power, and a rapid-fire Q&A covering global investment risks and societal trends. Doug Casey, known for his candid and often controversial libertarian viewpoints, unpacks these topics with his trademark acerbic wit and philosophical detachment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Aggression Toward Iran and Executive Overreach

• Escalation in the Middle East:
  Smith opens by highlighting near-inevitable U.S. military action against Iran ([00:02]). Doug frames the situation as both reckless and unnecessary, criticizing Trump as "Israel’s puppet at this point" ([00:51]), and questioning the rationale behind U.S. involvement:
  • “Absolutely zero threat to the United States. Although obviously Netanyahu would like to see Iran taken out because it's the only threat to Israel. So Trump is Israel's puppet at this point. It's absolutely disgusting.” – Doug Casey ([00:51])
• Congressional Abdication:
  The hosts discuss the absence of Congressional oversight or public debate:
  • “There's a total surrender to executive power… Congress sucks.” – Matthew Smith ([02:14])
• Risks of Escalation:
  Doug warns of the danger: Iranian retaliation could threaten U.S. naval assets and destabilize Israel, potentially even implicating nuclear weapons ([04:06]). He underscores the complexity of Iran's ethnic makeup and the risk of full-scale regional destabilization ([03:05]).
• Military Costs & Futility:
  Smith comments on the logistical strain and immense costs, e.g., “$3 million apiece” Tomahawk missiles ([05:51]), and the supply chain fragility (rare earths) ([06:09]).

2. Media Landscape: Washington Post and “Woke” Institutions

• Washington Post’s Layoffs:
  Casey notes that after Bezos limited political endorsements, the Post suffered mass subscriber loss and newsroom resignations ([07:28]). Recent cuts gutted nearly half the newsroom. Doug attributes these woes to the Post’s previous “nutball crazy leftist” tilt, now shifting to centrist blandness ([09:08]).
  • “If Bezos is smart—and he is—AI will do most of the paper in the future.” – Doug Casey ([09:52])
• Survival of Traditional Media:
  The hosts ponder if the Post can compete with other left-leaning outlets like the NYT when stripped of its distinctiveness ([10:24]).

3. Societal Reflections: Scouts, the Fed, and Political Theater

• Scouting America (formerly Boy Scouts):
  Casey is surprised the merged Scouts aren’t as “woke” as expected, praising the practical approach of the U.S. Navy granting Eagle Scouts E3 status ([10:56]).
• Federal Reserve Satire:
  On potential appointee Kevin Warsh, Doug quips about preferring “Kevin Costner,” emphasizing that the Fed chair’s main qualification is “being a skilled and practiced enthusiastic liar” ([13:16]).
  • “Whoever is going to be the head of the Federal Reserve has got to be a skilled and practiced enthusiastic liar and doesn't have to know anything about economics.” – Doug Casey ([13:16])
• Cabinet “Typecasting”:
  Doug derides Trump’s appointment strategy as focused on physical presentation over merit ([14:33], [17:51]).

4. Epstein Scandal Fallout

• Pam Bondi’s Congressional Testimony:
  Casey describes Bondi as “an aging Barbie doll,” mocking her deflection tactics in testimony and Trump’s public praise for her combative style ([16:05]).
• Epstein Release & Implications:
  Doug opines that Trump—and many elites—are deeply implicated and expects a sprawling international scandal when unredacted files emerge ([18:38]).
  • “It’s clear to me, for lots of reasons, that Trump is up to his eyeballs…” – Doug Casey ([18:38]) He notes the transatlantic nature of the scandal, connecting it to European aristocracy and banking dynasties ([19:53]).
• Societal Detachment:
  Both agree on the virtue of living in the Southern Cone (Uruguay/Brazil) to stay “insulated” from such tumult ([20:27]).

Q&A HIGHLIGHTS (with Timestamps for Key Segments)

• Deagle Report and Population Collapse ([21:20]):
  Dismissal of original predictions; Casey skeptical as numbers haven’t materialized. “Yogi Berra said, it ain’t over till it’s over.” (Casey, [22:59])

• US Dollar and Immigration ([23:30]):
  Mass emigration from US is unlikely, as alternatives are lacking. US remains “the bastion of Western civilization…as bad as things are everywhere else” ([23:46]).

• Retiring/Migrating to El Salvador ([26:45]):
  Cautiously negative: While safer under Bukele, underlying social issues persist. “It still has all of it, doesn’t have the gangs…That seems to me to be a time bomb waiting to go off.” (Casey, [26:54])

• Europe’s Capital Gains Tax (Netherlands) ([32:19]):
  36% tax on unrealized gains is “so destructive” and “incredibly stupid.” Advisors should “get out (of Holland) at that point” ([33:29]).

• Rare Earth National Security ([35:28]):
  US has not meaningfully replaced China in rare earth processing; years away from supply chain sovereignty ([36:15]).

• US Legal Environment & Lawfare ([36:57]):
  Anecdotes on personal experience with frivolous lawsuits. AI is set to transform law both as a tool and a threat, with cost bifurcation between elite lawyers and the public ([39:10]) and speculative use by the IRS for automated audits ([41:04]).

• Democratic Control & Investing ([42:04]):
  If Democrats win control, Casey contemplates greater capital flight due to fears of “wealth seizure.” However, macro realities like debt override administration specifics ([43:00]).

• Seasteading ([44:10]):
  Casey dismisses the viability for most: “It sounds to me like a survival type situation…like a prison type of situation” ([44:57]).

• Buying Property in Hong Kong ([48:04]):
  No current opinion, but reminisces profitable past investment.

• US Stocks Amid Dollar Decline ([49:34]):
  U.S. stock market is “overpriced by every conventional measure;” better value found in gold, silver, and mining stocks ([50:17]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Trump is Israel’s puppet at this point. It’s absolutely disgusting.” – Doug Casey ([00:51])
• “Congress sucks. I don’t know how to explain it.” – Matthew Smith ([02:14])
• “If Bezos is smart and he is smart…I guess AI will do most of the paper in the future.” – Doug Casey ([09:52])
• “Pam Bondi…she’s a stock, a sock puppet, but she’s actually an aging Barbie doll.” – Doug Casey ([16:05])
• “It's clear to me…Trump is up to his eyeballs…” – Doug Casey ([18:38])
• “36% tax on unrealized gains—it's incredibly stupid.” – Doug Casey ([34:04])
• “If the communists take over the US, do I really want to invest in anything in the US?” – Doug Casey ([42:04])
• “Stock market can go higher or it can crash, I don't know…But mining stocks…are very cheap still.” – Doug Casey ([50:15])

Tone

The conversation is urgent, irreverent, and deeply skeptical of mainstream narratives, political institutions, and corporate media. Doug Casey’s language is iconoclastic, often sardonic; Matthew Smith steers with a mixture of dry humor and concern.

Timestamps of Important Segments

• Iran conflict analysis and executive overreach: [00:02]–[06:46]
• Washington Post layoffs & AI media future: [07:21]–[10:24]
• Federal Reserve & Cabinet appointee satire: [13:07]–[15:44]
• Epstein fallout and Trump's allies: [15:44]–[20:27]
• Q&A: Deagle Report: [20:44]
• Q&A: Dollar status/immigration: [23:30]
• Q&A: El Salvador, Argentina, censorship rumors: [26:45]–[29:47]
• Q&A: Leasing robots, AI, future of work: [29:55]–[32:19]
• Q&A: Euro capital gains/US policy drift: [32:19]–[34:04]
• Q&A: Legal environment, lawfare, AI in law: [36:57]–[41:45]
• Q&A: Democrat control, investment policy: [42:04]
• Q&A: Seasteading and city-state projects: [44:10]–[47:44]
• Q&A: Hong Kong real estate and final investment takes: [48:04]–[51:18]

Summary

This episode offers a no-holds-barred critique of contemporary politics, geopolitical risks, and societal trends, with Doug Casey’s signature blend of skepticism, libertarian philosophy, and speculative insight. Key takeaways include warnings about executive overreach, skepticism regarding official narratives and media viability, cynicism about the U.S. political class and legislative process, and advice for navigating global risks—tailored for seasoned and contrarian investors seeking to protect and grow their wealth amid political and financial turbulence.