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- [00:03]
A
All right, Good morning, Doug. According to Trump, the deal is over with Iran. This MOU that had a lot of people hopeful is over. He says to me, I think it's over. It's just a waste of time. And this is all because there were some ships, I guess three ships that were transiting through the Omani portion of the straits that were attacked with Iranian missiles. And then after that, U. S responded to that with its largest strike since April. And then, of course, Iran retaliated again to the US's response with by striking U. S. Military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. So it does seem like the deal's off. Where do you think it goes from here?
- [00:51]
B
Well, I understand, and of course, we have to recognize that all we know is what we're told from various sources, which vary in reliability as well. But I understand that the Iranians have not taken credit for having hit those ships. So for what that's worth, okay, that's number one. But my guess is that this is going to go on and go on and go on, and you can't really believe anything that Trump says because as we've talked about in the past, for all of his virtues, and he does have some virtues, and he has done some good things, and he's definitely not Kamala Harris and her crew. He is a pathological liar with schizophrenic tendencies. And he believes that what he says is the truth. Maybe because he says it, that's true of megalomaniacs, I think. So oil went up a lot, but I think it can go up a lot higher. So good reason to be bearish about everything, because I think this is kind of important.
- [02:13]
A
Well, I don't know what could be more important. I mean, I've described it as, I think, the largest economic cataclysm of my lifetime. Even though we haven't realized any of those costs yet. I mean, it's, it's, it's actually, to me, extraordinary that this all started in late February, and here we are, you know, in July, and there really haven't been consequences. Oil's cheap. Everything seems to be going just fine. We haven't seen a supply chain hit in any obvious way yet. I mean, I haven't really seen reports that crops, you know, are not, are missing out on fertilizer or anything like that. I mean, there's talk of worry about that, but I haven't seen reports that it's, in fact happened. So I, It's a, it's just amazing to me that we haven't experienced economic consequences yet, but it's hard to imagine that they won't come.
- [03:06]
B
Well, the airports and airlines are apparently full. The restaurants seem to be doing well everywhere that I see in my. And everything I hear about as well. People are still driving on the highways from point A to point B in large numbers. I can tell that from driving. So it looks like this is kind of just something that's happening off in the Middle east in countries that most Americans can't find on the map.
- [03:43]
A
I think that's the way it is, that that is what it is like right now. And I just believe it's the calm before the storm. Yeah, because you just can't. We've heard for years the great damage that would be caused by the closure of the strait and yet there isn't any damage yet again. But I think, you know, we do see at the same time the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is getting drawn down substantially. Another 6.4 million barrels last week. It's at its, you know, lowest level since they were filling it up initially. And eventually you got to imagine that there's going to, you know, we run out of that. We run out of that extra supply that we can add to the market, to the US market anyway. And you run out of the above ground reserves that are stored commercially. I mean, we're operating at a deficit, it seems to me. Unless there's been, unless behind the scenes there's been some drop in demand that's so substantial, that would certainly imply at least recession then, which you're not seeing any indicators of that of a drop in demand. But unless that drop in demand has happened, you have to imagine we're all right, it's clear we're running at a deficit. And so when does the, you know, when does there come to Jesus moment with it all? There has to be at some point.
- [05:06]
B
Well, oil is certainly the most important commodity in the world. Everything runs on it. A lot of electricity is generated directly and indirectly through oil. Well, by natural gas mostly being burned. Planes run on it, trains run on it, ships run on it, cars run on it. I mean, price of oil and the availability of oil are just really critical, critical. And I do think that they're being underrated at this point. So what am I doing about it? I'm long bull spreads on oil in the commodities market. Not a lot, but it's just to kind of keep my hand and playing the game. And I remain long grains because grains are very dependent on oil too. I mean, not only the fact that farmers need gas or diesel to plow the ground and plant it and harvest it, all the rest of this type of thing. But fertilizer as well is largely from oil and natural gas, so that prices of the grains have to go up. Incidentally, this is a tangent that I'll just mention. It's that talking about why are the grains not higher than they are right now? And I think we've touched on this in the past, but I'm not sure most people are aware that after World War II. I'm pulling this out of my memory bank so I may stand and be corrected in some details. In the years after World War II, farmers in the US typically got about 40 bushels of corn per acre. Now because of genetic improvements, better pesticides, fertilizers, on and on, it's 160 or 180 sometimes. So it's quadrupled. And another interesting thing is when it comes to wheat, wheat is also quite cheap. The number of planted acres in wheat has fallen. I think the number is like 60% from what it was after World War II for the same reasons. Because if you've looked at a wheat field recently, the wheat, it's not amber waves of grain. I mean these wheat plants are like 2ft tall and they used to be quite high. Same thing has happened with rice and all of the, all the grains. So that's why it's cheaper. But I still think we're reaching the end of the road because farmers aren't making any money on any of this stuff. And this oil thing is really serious in putting the squeeze on farmers.
- [08:20]
A
Gonna be. It seems like it's. If it is the most important commodity in the world and there's a reduction of, I don't know what percentage of the total supply, if it's 15% or 10% even then it's got to have some impact. You know, you would think. But to me, this, all this time period, and I thought this for a while, but it, it's, it reminds me of 2020 with the, you know, in the early days of the pandemic where essentially you could see this tidal wave coming your way if you're paying attention. But it, but the market wasn't awake to it. People weren't awake to it. And then all of a sudden it shows up on your shores and like all of a sudden everything changed. And it seems to me this is like that moment where, you know, where everyone is so complacent about the way things are. I mean, so comfortable. Certainly the price action makes it seem that way. That the last Thing they're expecting is to have any kind of difficulty at all. But in the backdrop of an environment, that's clearly creating real difficulty. I mean, it must, it inherently must create some difficulty.
- [09:35]
B
Maybe most people are thinking, well, there are always wars someplace. This is certainly the case in recent history. And it's like the. Well, it's like the Vietnam War. It went on and on and on, and it didn't seem to affect the markets from day to day because it was like a really big deal, but it was in the background. And it's a really big deal too, but it's shorter.
- [10:03]
A
I think the difference, the difference is there's like two separate issues. There is the war with Iran and then there's the supply chain issue with the Strait of Hormuz. Now they're, of course they're related, but like the war could go on for a long time without really changing anyone's life if it weren't for the straight. Yeah, but the fact that the straight exists changes all the dynamics around all, you know, like the Vietnam comparison dramatically.
- [10:33]
B
And if the war goes on and gets more serious and listening to Trump's recent obliviations, you know, I'm serious wars. We've got to teach these people a lesson. What he's saying right now, perhaps the Iranians will keep it closed and maybe the other straight in that part of the world, the Bab El Mandab, which the Houthis are in charge of, maybe they'll close it too, in sympathy. The Iranians fighting the Great Satan, because the US under Trump is acting like the Great Satan at this point. And maybe if Trump does something really, really nasty to the Iranians, bombs the wrong things, they'll just get tired of this and perhaps they will take out a carrier group with missiles.
- [11:31]
A
Yeah, And I think, I think they've Trump's already crossed the Rubicon with doing something really nasty to them in their mind by killing the Supreme Leader there, you know, because I'm sure you saw some of those pictures about the number of people that came out for his funeral that's happened over the last ten days or so. It's, you know, I've heard upwards estimate of certainly over 9 million. I've heard as high as 15 million people coming out for that event. I mean, it's a shockingly large number.
- [12:03]
B
Yeah. And I've heard that as many as 40 million people are in different places in Iran and warming the morning, the passing of the, of, of Khomeini. And what Trump has done is united a country that was perhaps on the part of falling apart because now they can see that they're under attack and that tends to join people together. Yeah.
- [12:33]
A
And I just, I think people have to remember how after 9, 11, if you were around for that and you experienced that, the, the response of the public was, let's go get those now.
- [12:47]
B
Yeah.
- [12:47]
A
I mean, that's the way that I felt about it, you know, and I was, of course, when we decided to go to Iraq, I was like, that's crazy. That doesn't make any sense. But, you know, I think something, you know, like 70% plus of Americans supported invading Iraq after that. And it's because they were filled with this. If you're gonna. What you've done to us now, we don't even care. Like, we don't even care who dies. Like we're gonna get even with you.
- [13:12]
B
I know people have, people have forgotten on 911 that the Afghans had nothing to do with it at all. And they wanted to be cooperative, as a matter of fact, in finding out who the Mitzgreans were and certainly Saddam Hussein and Iraq. I mean, it was ridiculous to think that he had anything to do with it. But you had to attack somebody and show that you were doing something. This is one of the big dangers of a big government. They have to do something to show that they're effectual. So. Right.
- [13:46]
A
And the p. And the people were demanding it, and they were demanding it like people were pissed. I remember how I felt when I saw it. I was like, some, like, somebody's going to get punished for this. Somebody must be. You know, that's the way I felt about it too, is my natural reaction. Now you have to imagine now put yourself in the shoes of the Iranians and they've had their, their 9, 11 now. And so where they might have been, a lot of people really dissatisfied with the government, really, you know, not happy with their entire structure. But now they feel traumatized like the Israelis after October 7th. And they've gone on the war path since then and, you know, gone way overboard. But like that. It's like those events having a way of traumatizing a society and making them, you know, the blood. Get the bloodlust going. And now so the, the Iranians are filled with that now. And so who before, you know, they've been always responding very kind of tit for tat with everything we've done, kind of. But at this point, their population, I mean, they, they're calling their president a traitor. People there, some of the crowds were because he agreed, he did this MOU with the US and it's like, how can you, you know, like we don't negotiate with terrorists. Like that kind of idea is what the crowd has there, you know, toward the United States after all this. And so it's hard to imagine them backing down and being reasonable and rational at this point. And so what are our options? Our options are we just literally walk away from the situation because this MOU thing isn't working. So we walk away or we choose something that's way worse than that.
- [15:34]
B
Now signing an MOU with the US is very much like if the US has signed an MOU with Japan after the Pearl harbor attack. Attack. I mean, it's perceived the same way.
- [15:48]
A
Right, exactly. And so people, people are really pissed off about that. So if the US is looking for concessions in any way from, from the Iranians, you know, around, like how the straight is managed when the way the Iranians think about it, the MOU says no, we get to decide what happens about who goes through there for These, for this 60 day period of the ceasefire. Like, they're not bending on any of those things. They can't even, they can't politically bend on it. The people who do are likely to be assassinated. Not from the Israelis, but from the Iranians.
- [16:22]
B
Well, and then you have the Israelis, of course, who see Iran as being the last country in the Middle east that stands between them and hegemony in that part of the world because all of their other enemies have basically collapsed. Syria doesn't exist really as a force. Iraq doesn't exist. Of course, Turkey is on the Runway coming up as being the next bet noir for the Israelis. And I understand that the Turks foolishly, I think, are asking the US for F35s. Well, that makes no sense because that's a computer driven airplane. And if the Turks do anything naughty, the US will shut down their air force for them. So anyway they want, never mind the
- [17:19]
A
fact, as I say, never never mind the fact that their operational status is like 25 to 30% of them at any time are actually operationally ready. You know, they're, they're kind of a problem.
- [17:32]
B
It really is. I mean, you pay a hundred or $150 million per aircraft and then the maintenance is what really bankrupts you. And the thing is going to be unreliable to start with. I mean, this is old technology. They shouldn't be, the Turks shouldn't be thinking in terms of that. So. But anyway, maybe Turkey is, is the next country that the Israelis have. The Israelis are in a lot of trouble. I'll. I'll make a bet. I'll take. If somebody will give me the proper odds. I'll bet that Israel isn't going to be around in 10 years in nothing like its current form. Anyway, it's in a lot of trouble. I guess it's, I don't know if it's anti Semitic for me to say that, but I just think it's, I just think it's a fact.
- [18:30]
A
Yeah, I think it's only anti Semitic. If you said that you wanted that to happen, then they might say that. But.
- [18:37]
B
Well, I don't want.
- [18:38]
A
Who knows, who knows the rules these days.
- [18:40]
B
I, I know the rules are. Or whatever they, they say the rules. The rules are. But look, I don't want it to happen. I don't want any of these bad things to happen because it's going to be very unpleasant and very inconvenient and very costly and our personal standards of living are going to drop and it's going to be especially dangerous if you don't join the other chimpanzees hooting and panting looking to kill somebody. Doesn't matter who it is, as 911 proved. So I'm not looking forward to any of this stuff at all. But this kind of stuff happens periodically in world history.
- [19:24]
A
Right, but has there ever been anything that is the equivalent of, economically speaking of the closure of the Strait of Horus? Like, has there ever been anything that's like that at all that gets on that scale?
- [19:37]
B
Yeah, good question. Any one event. And of course it's not just the closure of the straits, but a lot of facilities in and around this great oil and gas productive area have been damaged or destroyed in addition to that. So yeah, it is serious. So is there any other economic event that would be comparable to this ever? You know, I can't think of one, quite frankly.
- [20:10]
A
And yet, Doug, we've experienced no serious negative consequences for it yet.
- [20:17]
B
No, we haven't. There's lots of time bombs that can go off in the financial world. A collapse of the stock market, slower, faster evaporation of the bond market, things like that. That could create chaos financially. Big banks going under, insurance companies. I think this is all going to happen. But that's financial. It's not real world economics. With physical things it's different. It's just digits, right? Yeah.
- [20:53]
A
And on the financial system thing there's all these like second order consequences of, you know, the oil revenues of the Gulf states being down. A lot of them do have debt that needs to be serviced. So you know, of course they have assets they might need to sell in order to service those debts, but those assets and that, that could affect the stock market, you know, because if they have to sell some. But there have been such a constant supplier of new capital coming into the markets, coming in for activity and that you have to imagine that reduction and new money coming in has got to have some impact on the markets too.
- [21:29]
B
I'm wondering if the Middle east isn't going to start running out of money. I understand that the Saudis have finally, I mean, cut their losses on NEOM, their, their 100 mile line in the desert. Yeah, ridiculous and very fever dream. Yeah, yeah, it was so. But they tend to do a lot of things like that. This is what happens when you got too much money that comes in too fast in a society that's not used to dealing with this type of thing. Not that individual Saudis aren't very bright and everything, but society as a whole is backward.
- [22:14]
A
You know. The other thing that comes complicates this whole situation is that the Russia, Ukraine situation is only making this oil situation worse because of the strikes by Ukraine on all these Russian assets. I know that they hit, I think two or three days ago their largest refining facility, which is the first time they hit it. And you know, it's responsible for refining 420,000 barrels a day. And you know that. I don't know what, what's the level of damage? Does it temporarily knock it offline? You know, is it offline for two weeks or is it two months, or is it a year? I don't know. But I mean that's happening in the backdrop and that's again, no negative consequences have we experienced from any of that yet.
- [23:04]
B
Yeah, and they say, and I believe it at this point because of that, that there are gas shortages in Russia as a result of that. So the question occurs, how long are the Russians going to take being used as a punching bag, you know, by this flaky Ukrainian regime?
- [23:28]
A
Well, they've been a lot more aggressive recently with strikes in Kiev. So I mean, they've been more aggressive at least.
- [23:36]
B
Well, and I guess there will probably be counter strikes now because these stupid Europeans are arming, doubling their defense budgets and saying very warlike things to the Russians for no good reason because I can't see that the Russians present any realistic threat whatsoever to Europe. But these European politicians are like plumping for a war. What's the matter with these people?
- [24:07]
A
I don't know. The thing is it's good. You know, as you remind us often, you know, war is the health of the state. So those leaders who are in a really weak politically, you know, don't have a lot of support. It definitely bolsters their position for there to be this huge threat that they have to marshal the resources of the country to go after. You know, that's the only thing I can think of.
- [24:31]
B
Sure. It's. It's like that stupid baby Bush that like to say I'm a war president and mission accomplished making himself into a big deal when he was really never anything but or nothing. Nobody who somehow got elected president. I can't even remember how the baby Bush got elected president. I guess it was because his father was president.
- [24:55]
A
Remember. Remember this. This came down to the hanging. The hanging chads in Palm beach county,
- [25:00]
B
of course, but then. Yeah, of course. But then the alternative would have been Al Gore, who would have been arguably worse. It's like between Trump and Kamala. I mean you just can't. You just can't win.
- [25:17]
A
You can't. Do you think that Trump has the same. Same attitude that Bush had that through war he can be somebody, you know, he can be someone special, maybe be worthy of his head on Mount Rushmore, you know.
- [25:30]
B
Well, you know, it's actually lunacy. Head on Mount Rushmore, talking about that being on a $250 bill. I don't know if they're going to print that or not. Putting his name on the Kennedy center, building the ark to Trump there in D.C. and so many things like that. I mean he's, he's a genuine megalomaniac. We're dealing with the. A person who's got serious mental problems at this point. I think.
- [26:00]
A
What comparable like who's. Which politician historically is comparable to him, would you say in that?
- [26:06]
B
Well, I don't know about modern politicians. Best analogy is probably going back to the Roman Empire or maybe Louis Couture's in France, something like that. But once again, I'll. I'll reiterate that I'll make book he's not going to finish his term. I think it's going to get serious enough that quick that either he's going to be. Either he's going to be impeached successfully or 25th Amendment or any number of things could happen in addition to that it would fault him from completing his term.
- [26:46]
A
H. Well, the 25th Amendment he have to his sycophantic cabinet would have to change their tune quite a bit from where they are now.
- [26:56]
B
Yeah, maybe that's A long shot. But listen, it's a snake pit, so anything can happen when you have these vipers that are sliming over each other. I mean.
- [27:07]
A
Yeah. Anyway, I just wonder, like, what should. Am I overly worried about this straight up remove situation? Because I've been wrong on it so far where it hasn't had any real negative impacts.
- [27:23]
B
I don't think you are. And, and the reason is I don't see why this problem is going to go away. Eventually the market will solve it. More oil and gas will be produced from politically less dangerous areas of the world. And the oil and gas that is produced there will be shipped out by pipeline, things like that. So it'll be solved eventually, but eventually can take a number of years. I don't think we have a number of years. And it could get a lot worse with this mandab, with that the Houthis control and other places that Muslims control, like the Malacca streets and so forth, that if they want to see this as a jihad against the Great Satan. Because, listen, the US Is a bull in a China shop at this point. And I think people want it just to stop. So, yeah, it's possible. It could, could get a lot worse and I don't see why it's going to get better. And of course, this thing with the Russia and the Ukraine, that really could spin out of control if the Russians get tired of being treated like a punching bag. Right.
- [28:43]
A
And if it's a, if it's legitimately causing gas shortages in Russia, which is like the last place you'd expect to have gas shortages.
- [28:51]
B
Yeah.
- [28:51]
A
Then you got to imagine that the sentiment of the Russian people is growing toward, you know, demanding some radical action of some kind in order to stop it.
- [29:03]
B
That's right. Governments have to do something. And what can Putin do at this point? Well, he's got to teach the Ukrainians for sure, and the west in general a lesson that he's not to be trifled with. Yeah, yeah, this is bad. This is bad news. So what are we going to do to as much as we can to insulate ourselves from this. And it's going to be very hard since governments everywhere control everything in this digital world. They know what you own. They can manipulate the markets, as Trump is proving, spending billions and billions of dollars buying commercial corporations, turning the US Into a genuine overt fascist economy. That's what fascism is all about, melding of the state and corporations. So what should you do in the meantime? Well, I remain long oil producers. I'm looking at speculations and physical Oil. As I mentioned earlier, I'm still on gold producers because I don't know if most people even noticed that the largest gold producer, which is Newmont, is selling at a 9 to 1 price earnings ratio at this point. That's very cheap for any stock. But especially for a gold stock it's, it's a historic low. That's true of all the gold stocks at this point. So I'd say steady as she goes. And one thing that you brought up earlier, we were talking is that the semiconductor area is the most overpriced area of a super overpriced bubblicious market. And there's an ETF called Socks, so xs. Yeah. Which is a, a three to one leveraged play on semiconductors. And it hasn't done well in the last little while, has it?
- [31:08]
A
That's an understatement. It's in the last year it is down 97% which basically from let's say about 160 bucks to $4.50 right now.
- [31:25]
B
Yeah. And you said it still has about $140 million in the kitty. So it's. Yeah, it's not going to go out of business. You know, I'd be very tempted to use that as a hedge against a bad stock market.
- [31:43]
A
Yeah. Because these semiconductor. Somebody asked me about what they called the Secret seven which are basically suppliers to the, the, the mega scalers. Okay. So basically these semiconductor like names and you know they were average, they were up like over 200% in the last year. They're trading at a, what was it? I believe like a 46 times earnings, current earnings and you know, on their, even on their future earnings which are counting massive growth, you know, huge future projections for the next year the PE was at 26, so it's not cheap at that level even on forward earnings basis. So how much more can they go up from here? I don't know, maybe they go up another 50% from here, who knows. But at some point that there's going to be some disappointment of some kind because it's priced to perfection, is priced to better than perfection at this point. And then if it does then that semiconductor bear, that bear semiconductor ETF would, should benefit quite a bit.
- [32:59]
B
Yeah, it, it should and it's look at SpaceX, which I really do think is an accident waiting to happen. And I say that as much as I like Elon or as much as I like the idea of space and so forth, what is it? Is it selling it 100 times revenues and you know that's absolutely not going to go on. After the current owners who are locked up that bought it earlier, I think they're going to start hitting the bid in the months to come. And SpaceX could go down a lot. So that's actually not a bad short at this point.
- [33:41]
A
Well, you know it when. So after it became public, it peaked out at like 218, looks like per share. And today it's at 146, still above the offering price.
- [33:55]
B
So.
- [33:55]
A
Yeah.
- [33:56]
B
Yeah. Still. I think it's still a. Still a great short. We're gonna have to. Might want to act on that just to say that. Yeah. So later in the future I can say. Yeah, I would. Short. SpaceX wants to feel like they're right, feel like a hero. I think that's one way to do it. Yeah.
- [34:15]
A
You know, and it just got added to the NASDAQ 100, which, you know, they had to change the rules in order for it to be added. I believe today was the first day that it's counted, or maybe it was yesterday, but it's down today. So even with the inclusion in the NASDAQ 100, it's down. That's not a great sign.
- [34:33]
B
No, it's not. Because as part of the NASDAQ 100, there's a lot of obligatory buying.
- [34:42]
A
Right. Yeah. I don't know. I think we're. I think we're at the edge, the edge of the end, Doug, with some of these. Some of this bubble stuff we've been seeing happening with all of these risks that are only growing with the Strait of Hormuz, the Russian issue. Like, I. I feel like we're close. I know we. You know, you've probably felt this way for a long time.
- [35:05]
B
Oh, yeah.
- [35:06]
A
But have you ever felt.
- [35:09]
B
Yeah.
- [35:10]
A
Can you rate it, though? Like, how does now compare to other times? Other times in, you know, over your investing career, where
- [35:18]
B
you know Bob Proctor, who writes a great letter. He's a very old friend of mine. We think very much alike, although the way he analyzes the market is by drawing lines on charts and using Elliot Wave theory. And I. I don't go in for that stuff. But he's very smart and a shrewd analyst. We used to get together. I haven't been to New Orleans for years, although I'm going back to the New Orleans conference this November, actually. We'd always get together for lunch and talk about how fundamentally gloomy things were academically. And we've been wrong so far, but I got a feeling that a Super Bears are going to wind up being right. And of course, people say, hey, it's just a broken clock. It's right twice a day. I understand that. But that's rather fatuous because there are actually reasons why these things happen, so. Right.
- [36:25]
A
And I can't say you've been wrong all the time, because in the financial crisis, I mean, you. You were bearish then. Right? And it was. And you were right that period.
- [36:34]
B
Anyway, the fact of the matter is, having specialized in resource stocks, which are about the most volatile of all stocks, it's treated me very well so that you can have your academic opinions on all kinds of things, but as long as it doesn't cost you money, it doesn't really matter. And as long as you find a few niches where you can do well, it doesn't matter. So, yeah, I'm pretty happy about the way things have worked out, quite frankly.
- [37:11]
A
Could you. Can you do. Do you have any objective sense of, you know, like, just kind of a vibe about the market today compared with other frothy periods in the past? I mean, does it feel worse? I mean, can you. Can you even. Does it feel not as bad as other times? I mean, do you have any sense of that?
- [37:36]
B
Well, what's my best indicator? I mean, who am I talking to that I can get a grip of the vibe from. Other than reading the media, which is untrustworthy. But then again, it's not, because typically in the past and still today, I guess the best indicator of anything is what's on the front cover of magazines, because for the same reason that when Business Week famously ran their article about the death of Equity back in 1980 shows what's on people's minds and how they're feeling. Okay. That said, I'm on a. I'm on a zoom group once a week with 30 to 40 very sophisticated guys from. They're all financially oriented, but they actually do stuff in various fields from. From oil to the military to technology to all kinds of things. And, yeah, they're pretty bearish. But the reason I got on the group is because they invited me in the book because I'm leather bearer. Yeah. Yeah. What. What's the average guy thinking at this point? I don't know. Listen, this is like that. It's like that musical Camelot where the king is. Does a. A song. What are the people doing tonight? And what's that? And the people are saying, what. What is the king doing tonight? I don't know what the other people are doing, quite frankly.
- [39:21]
A
Yeah. All right. Well, I feel like we're on the precipice of something again, feels that feel to me, just from a vibe perspective. But who knows? It could still go much higher from here. The markets could, I guess. But I think that fundamentally it's time to, like, have less risk, you know, to have more cash on the side if you can, to own hard assets like. Like gold. I think it's good to own that. I just feel like. I feel like there's a tsunami on its way coming from this economic calamity that you couldn't find one that was more significant. You couldn't think of anything that single event that was more significant for the economy, not for the financial markets, for the economy. And it's coming. And eventually there'll be a reckoning, won't there? There has to be.
- [40:14]
B
And on top of that, we're looking at very possibly World War iii. I mean, it's not just financial, it's not just economic. It's the biggie. World War iii. And I don't know what form it's going to take. Could be nuclear, certainly it'll be cybernetic with computers. They can all go down. And that could be almost as bad as nuclear war. And maybe if it gets really serious, it' ideological war. Besides, I don't know what form it'll take. But World War III is. Well, you know what. You know what Einstein said when they asked him what will World War III be like? And he said, I don't know what World War III is going to be like, but it'll be fought with. But World War four will be fought with sticks and stones.
- [41:01]
A
Right.
- [41:03]
B
Right.
- [41:06]
A
All right, well, I guess we'll just have to see. Doug, if you.
- [41:09]
B
If what.
- [41:10]
A
What actually does come of this. But it does seem to me that it's a risky situation we've entered into here in this year, and crisis is coming. I. I think.
- [41:20]
B
But yeah, and I enjoy being here in. On the shore in Virginia, in the US during the summer, but at the same time, feel like a little bit like a scaredy cat anxious to get back to Uruguay or, you know, don't want to die in a nuclear war. At least not right away.
- [41:46]
A
Yeah, and it doesn't. And, yeah, it does feel like it definitely is a bubble down here where none of this matters. None of any of this stuff really matters.
- [41:54]
B
So, no, no, nobody's. Nobody's going to drop a biggie on Punta Della Stay. I mean it.
- [42:01]
A
It's not going to happen.
- [42:03]
B
No.
- [42:04]
A
Not going to happen. All right, Doug. Well, I think we'll leave it there for today. We'll be back on Friday with questions from subscribers. If you've got a question for Doug, you go to crisisinvesting.com there's Ask Doug at the top. And if you're a subscriber, you can just post your question there and we'll cover them when we get together on Friday.
- [42:21]
B
Okay. I look forward to it. And I always look forward to the weekends anyway, so that'll be great.
- [42:28]
A
All right, Doug, we'll talk to you then. Than.