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- [00:03]
A
All right. Good morning, Doug. We are in polarizing and very confusing times, and I guess that's the topic today that we're going to discuss, starting with pop culture. What'd you read in the newspaper today you'd like to share?
- [00:18]
B
Well, I get the South China Morning News habit I got into when I lived in Hong Kong. I'm not ashamed to get it, which I am when I get the Washington Post, New York Times, although both of them have redeeming characteristics. But reading newspapers is generally a waste of time. I mean, it's. It's the fast food of information or less. It's like eating popcorn or something.
- [00:53]
A
Oh, Doug, too bad you're not on Twitter. You should. You see the extremes of that, actually.
- [00:58]
B
Oh, God, I draw. I. You have to draw the line someplace. Otherwise you absolutely. You won't have a life. You won't have time for a life. Well, anyway, there was an interesting discussion in the South China News Morning Post about the interpretation of two movies. The two movies were Two Broke Girls, which is two famous actresses, I forget who they were, that are trying to make it in New York and failing. I mean, no money, nothing's working. But in the end, things work out. And it's kind of a Horatio Alger story where hard work is paid off after many trials and tribulations. And the second review or subject discussion, it wasn't a review, actually, was the Pursuit of Happiness a Will Smith movie where things are just going terrible. He can't make it just a disaster. And then I didn't see the movie, but at the end, it all works out well. All right, so both of these things. So what. What the discussion was about is that these movies are supposed to be inspirational, saying, don't worry, things are tough, but they'll work out fine. Just like the Horatio Alger novels. 19th century phenomenon. But the guy says, who's writing the article that, no, that's not the way people are taking it today. They forget about the happy ending. Yeah, sure, there's a happy ending if you're one of two famous actresses that are having tough times. Or if you're Will Smith, you. Yeah, but I ain't Will Smith, and it ain't working out for me, these tough times. So the point he makes is that the current zeitgeist, the spirit of the century, is gloomy and things are tough and they ain't getting better because I ain't Will Smith. So.
- [03:05]
A
I think so, too. If you talk to young people, I mean, you know, my. My kids are generally positive and doing Stuff, but their view of the future is. Well, it's very uncertain, very uncertain. And the parts that seem clear to them are not positive. You know, they don't, they don't have the same view that I did growing up, that if I, you know, bad position, but if I busted my ass, you know, if I showed up early, if I, if I, if I did more that I could get ahead. And they don't have that. They do that, but they don't think that that's, that's going to get them anywhere.
- [03:44]
B
No, because it's like they have to fight against the machine. And the machine doesn't care about you. Well, the machine doesn't care about you, in fact. But they feel that way. And anyway, in years past, the thought of a civil war in the US Was considered ridiculous and probably righteously so. I mean, we were a homogeneous society, but now I think that civil war, not just in the U.S. but in a lot of countries in Europe, is looming over us at this point.
- [04:24]
A
You see some tensions in Ireland now relating to fuel prices and protests, and that's very divisive. You know, one of our VIP members is Irish and he was there during those fuel protests and he's like, he's like, it's 50, 50 who support it and who don't, you know, because of the actions of some of these, of the haulers, they call them, and the farmers, they actually blocked a port that, that made it so that a. The incoming fuel ship couldn't land.
- [04:54]
B
Amazing.
- [04:55]
A
So they're a big mistake, you know, like a huge error. They're protesting government taxes, but like, then they're cutting their nose off despite their face.
- [05:05]
B
Yeah. Some similarities with the truckers strike in Canada, which was put down by the government unbelievably by capturing people's bank accounts and punishing people that sent money to the truckers through. I mean, it was actually criminal.
- [05:26]
A
Right. So we see signs of disruption and division and, you know, and I mean, most of the places we see it right now are in the, in just. In the, just in ideas that the ideas are totally incompatible that different people within these countries have. And so you're seeing that right now just a clash of ideas. But it's, you could, you can imagine that it's escalating to or becomes physical clashes at this point.
- [05:57]
B
I think this is all being crystallized around the current special military operation. No, no, that's what the, that's what Putin calls it. What's Trump call it?
- [06:09]
A
An excursion.
- [06:11]
B
An excursion. Right. That's, that's our name for a special military operation in Iran, which is really, really polarizing because there's a, one of the zoom groups that I go on weekly actually is a bunch of rich, well educated, mostly fund managers, but also a bunch of military guys as well. And the subject for discussion yesterday was mainly the what's going on in Iran. And it was quite a, for a very collegial and gamutlik group, it became rather heated and antagonistic. So it's like the battle lines are being drawn.
- [07:06]
A
Well, and as I understand it, what you were telling me is that what triggered kind of some blowback in the group was you simply commenting about the effect it would have on markets.
- [07:18]
B
Well, that's right. I said, look, there's a lot of things that we have to pay attention to today. I mentioned in particular the $40 trillion deficit and being added to at the rate of 2 to 3 trillion dollars per year in current spending. But people don't think about that. What everybody's thinking about now is the current dust up in the Middle east with Iran. As you're allocating your investments, you have to have a view as to what's going on there. It'll determine whether you buy this kind of stock or that kind of stock. I said that my view is that this war is not going to end anytime soon. It's not going to end anytime soon because Trump and his pals, well, the Israelis are completely committed to it and he doesn't want to taco on something this big, this important. But more, much more than Trump, who I mentioned, I think is actually psychologically spinning out. The things that he's tweeted in recent months are borderline insane and certainly highly unseemly for any adult to say, much less the leader of the most powerful country in the world. I mean, they're scary. But I said much more important than that, which is very important, is that the Iranians at this point are not going to allow themselves to be treated as a punching bag. And I'm not defending the regime of the Moors, I'm not defending Mohammedanism. Absolutely not. But the thing is, as a country, look, everybody, everybody, the majority think my country, right or wrong, may or may not like my government, but my country, right or wrong. And the Iranians are not going to roll over on this. So this war is going to continue. And I think it could mutate to other parts of the world because of, well, for instance, the US Counter blockading Iran and turning around six ships. And I had some questions that came up. I asked One of the military guys, what he thought I said, look, what happens if the Iranians who want to see the ships they want go through, okay, delivering, well, to China, for instance? What happens if the Iranians promise a platoon of soldiers on every boat so that they just keep going? How is the US Going to stop it? Well, normally they would send a team on to board the boat and take it over, but it ain't going to happen if there's a platoon of Iranians on the boat to defend it. Now what's going to happen? You warn the Americans we're planning on repelling borders. Are they still going to try to board? And what happens if it's a Chinese ship and the Chinese want that oil now? What's going to happen now you're hunting big game with the Chinese. Anyway, this thing is getting worse. It ain't going away soon. That's my view and that's the way I'm betting in the markets. But I'm not trying to go on too long, man. I'm sorry.
- [10:58]
A
Yeah, no, this is good.
- [11:00]
B
But so one of the guys who's, I've got to say, a rather rabid Zionist on the call, you know, contradicted everything in that, in that scenario, and he believes that Trump is playing 5D chess and, and so forth. I mean, it's a total at loggerheads of worldviews I've used, right, the German term zeitgeist. Another German term is Valtan shaul.
- [11:36]
A
So, yeah, so totally different worldview. Yeah. And I, I, I published an article about this today because I feel like you can see this tension. I mean, I had, I had dinner last night with one of our subscribers and, you know, she was, she was explaining to me a couple of different narratives about that explain the world. And she's like, really confused by him because she said, I could see either of these things being true and I don't really know what to believe, you know, and one of them was that, you know, in the background, secretly, America, Russia and China had already reached a secret pact to essentially regionalize the world and, you know, have their spheres of influence the US Would retreat back to, you know, Monroe Doctrine kind of stuff and etc. They all do that. And she said, she said, yeah, I mean, I guess I could, I could see that, you know, I could see that, that being the case. And then she said, but then another one is, is that, you know, what if, you know, what if Trump is with the globalists and all this and he's just doing the same things you know, she kind of explained that a little bit, you know, that he's not, in fact, you know, working on the better citrus of. Of Americans. And she's like. And I could see that too. And she's like, I just don't know what to believe. And I think that's where we are now. Where our. What my article is trying to talk about is that we, you know, as Michael Yan says, he says information is the highest form of warfare. And we, we are all involved in this war and the information war, especially if you're on social media, you see these things and, you know, it used to be where they were. You know, they wanted narrative control. So, like, you know, they want the official story of 9 11. You know, they want the official story, right? And they would. And. Or during COVID where they were actively then censoring people who were going against the narrative. They're going for narrative control. But it seems like at some point in the last maybe seven or eight months that they gave up on narrative control. Instead, their narrative flooding, like they are flooding the zone with narratives with. With basically different ideas that help explain reality. And. And so I kind of go. I go. And so my basic point is that narratives are super important to humanity. Like, we love narrative. I mean, we love a story, just like you said how, you know, everybody with their country, they might think their government's not great, but, like, their country is good. You know, America, we believe that we're the good guys. You know, that's like, that's part of our story. And it's probably the story of every country, I imagine. And these narratives are super important to human progress, development, creating civilization. Like, you have to have a shared stories. And so we have, like, a thirst for them. Like, we need an explanation. We need to know why. And it has to be some story that we can buy into and that's been weaponized against us. I think, and I go into this in detail in the article, where I think that we're just being flooded with different narratives enough so that you'll find one palatable to you and you'll hold that true no matter what it is, whether it be, you know, something about this, you know, arc as America, Russia, China, deal, whether it be about, you know, that closing of the Strait of Hormuz is actually genius for America, it's going to be good for America and bad for our enemies. Or. Or the idea that the city of London is really the real problem and Trump is secretly just battling them, like, these narratives. And there's a whole Bunch more that are out there. I mean, there's a lot. I just picked three. You know, they're everywhere. And there's a lot of problems. There's a lot of problems with these narratives. I mean, I break down exactly what's. What are the problems with these specific ones. But the thing is, you have to realize this is a human weakness that we all have, and we will accept a narrative if it. If it basically meets three criteria. The first one, that it's plausible, even if extraordinary, but still plausible. And all three of those ones are conceivably plausible. You can hear people make a great case for each of them all the time. Number two, that it's comforting, you know, like, it makes you worry less. You feel like, you know, there's like a. There's a. There's a. There's some sanity at the controls of the world and that it'll be okay. So comforting has to be there. And the third one is that it's gratifying in some way. It's gratifying to you. You know, it's what you want to hear on one side. And also, once you've got this narrative story in your head, you feel like you've got the answer. And that's why you notice the people who tout any of these narratives aggressively online are pompous assholes about them because they believe they have secret knowledge somehow that other fools just don't get. You know, and if you just get with the program, you know, it all makes sense.
- [17:13]
B
And not only that, but they're. But they're morally correct and righteous besides.
- [17:19]
A
Yes. A hundred percent. Yeah, they're gratifying that way. Like, well, we're the good guys. We got this under control. And. And they have somehow superior knowledge that allows them to connect the dots all of a sudden that you are confused about. And it's, you know, it's irritating, but, but, but also, you know, all of these. All of these just. I'll just read a little bit here. But. So, like, all of these are extraordinary claims, but they are plausible. I mean, America does have substantial oil production. It's true that ultimately America, Russia, and China could come to some negotiated settlement where they agree on spheres of influence. And of course, the banking cartel, the City of London thing, which was based at one point in the City of London, has historically worked against the people for its own selfish interests. And, you know, that's the reason why the phrase all wars are bankers wars is so well known. But the trick to all these narratives is they can't be proven or totally disproven at all. So, you know, we are living in extraordinary times where many admit anything is possible. We say it all the time, anything is possible. And any advocate of these narratives could make a compelling case. Just like that lady last night at dinner, she goes, I think this. I go, yeah, that's quite possible. So you agree it's possible. And then you hear the. Another one and you go, yeah, I guess that's totally possible too. And that's, that's a glimpse into the weakness of these narratives. They're wildly divergent narratives, shouldn't be able to exist at the same time in the same place. You know, it doesn't make any sense.
- [18:52]
B
And you know, it's the old saw confusion to the enemy. And I guess we're part of the enemy because they're trying to, they are trying to soak confusion to us. And all these wild claims. Carl Sagan said extraordinary claims demand not just plausible proof, but extraordinary proof. Extraordinary claims deserve extraordinary proof. And so that's another thing, right?
- [19:23]
A
Yeah. And it's like, it's like, well, okay, so if we have a deal with, if we have. And, and all of these, all of these narratives require you to really do a lot gymnastics around the obvious contradictions that exist to them. So you know, they're, they're like, for example, the, the ARC1 with Russia and China. I mean, if we really have a deal with Russia, why are we supplying weapons to Ukraine along with the targeting data so we can kill more Russians every single day? You know, if that were deal like. And their explanation will be, oh no, there's, you don't understand. There's a deeper battle being fought beneath the surface and you got to kind of placate some interests while you're taking down the enemy. It's all part of the plan. It's 5D, trust me, you know,
- [20:17]
B
I know there's at least a semi plausible, semi plausible explanation for all kinds of.
- [20:24]
A
Without evidence. Without evidence for any of those things.
- [20:28]
B
Yeah, that's right. Yeah, it's true. And I know another reason for, for attacking Iran and wiping it out is because all of a sudden it seems in the narrative world they've discovered that the Iranians are Shia Muslims and they're what are called twelvers, where they believe in Iman Ahmadi will come and be a Christ like figure that will cause Islam to reign over the world and all that. And they're maniacs. They want to physically destroy us to bring up, to immanentize the eschatology.
- [21:17]
A
Doug We've heard forever that they're the greatest sponsor of terrorism worldwide. Of course, I've never heard of a Shia terror plot. I've just missed it. It was always the Sunnis in my experience, but.
- [21:29]
B
Yeah, that's right. Well, you know, it's like Gilda Radner said, if it's not one thing, it's going to be something else. It's always something. So, you know, it was the, the communists and then it was, it's just one damn thing after another. So now, and believe me, I'm no fan of Mohammedanism, I prefer to call Islam Mohammedanism actually. But I'm afraid that they're winning and the forces of Christendom are diminishing, banishing, being beaten back. But you're not going to fight. And this is, some people take. Part of the narrative is we have to fight these, these Muhammadans otherwise they're going to conquer us. Well, yeah, I, I suppose because it's an aggressive religion, no question about it. But there's no military answer to, to this because the fact is that Christendom doesn't believe in anything anymore. It doesn't have a religion. I mean, Christianity is dead and dying except in pockets which are fanatical here and there. So yeah, the prognosis is not good. The long term trend, I'm afraid at this point no longer favors Western civilization and its values. Partly because Westerners are so damned confused by all the things that. Well, you're talking about.
- [23:01]
A
Yeah, well, and going back to what you said before, we do not have a shared story anymore. No, we like, we don't have any binding tissue and ideas about ourselves and role in the world that, and you know, the Muslims do.
- [23:17]
B
Yeah.
- [23:18]
A
So, but, but if they, if they win in any way, it's because. It's because of the vacuum we create. Have created.
- [23:26]
B
Yeah. I mean one indicator of that, perhaps a trivial one, but perhaps not, is the fact that in movies there used to be a good guy and a bad guy and the good guy would always win. Certainly Westerns. But Westerns is a genre and that was the essence of Westerns, that theme. They've pretty much gone away. And the movies generally, that's gone away.
- [23:54]
A
Yeah, we no longer hold up that goodness like strong virtues, strong character in any idealized form anymore.
- [24:04]
B
And the heroes in movies today are usually government agents, nihilistic special forces guys that, you know, are fighting for our side. But our side is good only because it's our side.
- [24:19]
A
Yeah. I can't wait till the new series comes out. About blowing up these drug boats, showing those heroes do their work there.
- [24:25]
B
Oh, yeah, I can't wait. And this, this is unexplained. I mean, Trump has gotten away with this and it makes no tactical sense to me. I mean, if you're in a position to blow them up, you're in a position to capture them and capture them. Well, first of all, it's deeper than that. If drugs were legal, which they should be, your body, do what you want with it, they wouldn't have to be doing this stuff anyway. But if you're in a position to blow up the drug boats, you're in a position to capture the drug boats and find out more about what's going on and for instance, be sure that you're killing somebody that's really a bad guy. But they're not doing any of that.
- [25:07]
A
Right. You could take down the whole cartel if you just, you know, if you get some people to turn right, you can follow it up the chain instead of just assassinating people, essentially. But yeah, those basic rules of engagement are all gone at this point. There's just a, it's a, that was a passing fad, I think.
- [25:27]
B
Yeah, if we've got more kill power than they do, well, we're just going to use it promiscuously as if there are no consequences to that. But I think there will be consequences to blowing up all these alleged drug boats. I mean, yeah, some of them are,
- [25:44]
A
but, yes, and, but it's, you know, that it's a pattern of activity. We see it there. We see it, you know, in the way we attacked Iran while we're negotiating with them, we go after their version of the Pope. Kill him in his home, his family, bomb a bunch of schoolgirls. I mean, if you think about that happened in America, like we would never forget if somebody did that to us, a group of school girls. We would never.
- [26:13]
B
If it was accidental and mistaken identity, it wouldn't matter.
- [26:16]
A
It happened and we would never forget.
- [26:20]
B
And I don't think the Iranians. But we don't know because all we really were inundated with American government propaganda. We don't get a lot of Iranian government propaganda here. That's what the Iranians get. But we get all American government propaganda, some of it more credible than others. But, you know, I'm sure the Iranians have not forgotten about that incident in 1988 with the USS Vincennes shooting down in a commercial Iranian airliner flying from Tehran to Dubai with 290 people. And it wasn't really an apology that was even offered for shooting down a commercial airliner. Some comments drive on.
- [27:09]
A
I wonder how many of our viewers even know that happened before you first mentioned to me, I had no idea.
- [27:14]
B
Well, nobody talks about it anymore because of course, what happened in 1989, that's ancient history. What is that 35 years ago, but 290 people in a regularly scheduled flight were shot down by a case of mistaken identity on the part of the Vincennes. And it's not like the captain was promoted, so there was no consequences to it. But you can't shoot down commercial airliners like that.
- [27:43]
A
Yeah. You just gotta ask yourself, as American would, would we forgive or. And forget that like the Americans I know would never forget that. They would never forgive.
- [27:54]
B
That would be, that would be proof that the Iranians were the Great Satan if they shot down an American airliner.
- [28:02]
A
Right. And you know, and like, I don't hear, like hearing people say death to America. Like, I don't like that bothers me to my, it bothers me to hear that. But, you know, you gotta, it is context is helpful after stuff like that happens, you know.
- [28:19]
B
Yeah, it is. But of course, but in the past, in our wars with Germany and Japan and the Korean conflict in Vietnam, we call those people all kinds of horrible things and wanted to, you know, kill the slopes, kill the gooks, kill the, you know.
- [28:42]
A
And we did.
- [28:44]
B
And we did. But I think this Death to America thing, I don't think this is, I'm not sure, but I don't think it's a recurring chant. I think it was something that flourished around the time of the fall of the Shah, who was correctly viewed as an American puppet. And that's when most of those Death to America chants occurred. I don't think there's any, have not been in recent years any mass rallies where everybody's shouting that.
- [29:16]
A
Well, but I think that that could change that. Yeah, that could change. That could change based upon what's happening now. And I mean, you gotta expect there's going to be blowback from this. I mean you, you, the homeland is far less secure today. I'll just say that, yeah, you know, where the, like people have a grudge and they have justification now, they feel, might feel like they have the moral authority to do terrible things to American civilians now. And I think that, that, you know, that wasn't the case three months ago like it is today. And so it's a much more dangerous place, which, you know, I'm really worried about some, some action in the US Whether it be a cyber attack or terror attack or some kind. I think it's inevitable if this continues
- [30:12]
B
or, or maybe a false flag from American fanatics that are trying to get the American public really riled up. That's not out of the question, unfortunately.
- [30:24]
A
I guess I should have said the narrative will be that the Iranians engage in a terror attack or cyber attack every, regardless of who actually initiates it.
- [30:35]
B
Yeah, yeah. So the other thing that we were talking about with some of the military guys were involved in this too, about the six ships that were turned back by the blockade. And so I asked, I said, well, okay, they turned around because of overwhelming force. Okay, I can understand that. And undoubtedly, if they'd kept going, the Americans would have boarded the ships and captured them. Okay, fine. But what if as part of the deal, ships that pass through the straits because they're okay with the Iranians to pass through the strait. What if Iran puts a platoon of soldiers on every boat and the ship now having passed through the strait, and the Americans tell it to heave to, they say, no, we're not. And if you attempt to board us, we're prepared to repel borders.
- [31:42]
A
I wonder if they would sink it. Like they sink that Iranian ship that was participating in a parade in India.
- [31:49]
B
Yeah, of course, that was a teeny weeny little warship, but you can't ship a VLCC tanker just because it doesn't want to be bordered and is a position to defend itself. So then what's going to happen? And certainly if it's a Chinese registered boat that the Americans tried to stop, I mean, how are the Chinese going to react to that? They're not going to like it.
- [32:14]
A
Right. And I think this is the thing, actions have consequences. So a lot of people look at this, this, this blockade that Trump is doing as, you know, somehow a genius move, you know, something that would change the strategic landscape in some big way and maybe give America some advantage. And you know what it. And there are two issues with that. One, we don't know how China and Iran are going to respond to that or how the Houthis will respond to it, you know, and the Red Sea, you know, which could have consequences that make the matters worse. There's the. Also the thing with, we have kind of a schizophrenic policy around it where just recently we unsanctioned all Iranian oil because recognition of the necessity of keeping some oil coming out of the Middle east because basically, because closing of the strait is the greatest economic cataclysm in human history. And will have a blowback for all of us. So keeping some coming out at least was good. But now all of a sudden they're like, no, zero, none is coming out. I find that schizophrenic and weird, you know that. Well, and if nothing else, it's just going to make worse whatever economic crisis is coming our way. But you know, the other thing is I just think people have to separate this. I know they're related, but you have the war in the Iran, which is a localized problem still. Now it might not last that way for long, but then you have the Strait of Hormuz being closed, which again as I said, is an economic catastrophe. And if that's not open, we're gonna have global depression and like that. If you want to, if you're really looking out for the American people, that's got to be open. That's got to be the priority. Even if you have to eat a little crow in order to make that happen. It's like I don't think people understand that there will be fuel shortages. People. And I don't care if you're in America, you think you're fine, you're not. The U.S. imports 5 to 6 million barrels a day from Canada and Mexico primarily, but then also all kinds of refined products too. And so if like by us selling more of our oil to the world, we're not helping our situation, we're only making it worse. We don't have enough already. And the consequences are going to hit there in Covid. The reduction of demand when we all lock down, nobody's traveling, ever staying home was 9 million barrels a day. The closure of the Straight for now it's 47 days. Something like that has been a reduction of 13 million barrels a day. Which means we have to have a reduction of economic activity. Like price doesn't solve that problem. We have to have a reduction of economic activity equivalent or greater than what we had during COVID that's coming. It's baked in the cake, you know it. Even if it's only for a 60 day window, you know, but it's there. And those consequences are so severe and it'll become obvious within weeks to everybody how big of a problem this is. But right now everyone's oblivious.
- [35:40]
B
Yeah, and the markets aren't reacting to this. For instance, as I mentioned before, I'm long corn, cotton and rice in particular in the commodities markets. Why? Because they're the big fertilizer hogs of the grain complex. But they haven't moved. Not really. I mean Nothing's happened with them. And at the same time, oil as we speak I think is about $90 on the near most nearby future. And further contracts going further out are in backwardation. In other words, it gets cheaper in the future, not more expensive. And I'm asking myself, well, that's interesting. Maybe we're wrong because the markets say we're wrong. But then again, maybe the markets, maybe the Fed or other government agencies have their finger on the scale or maybe the average person thinks this is all going to blow over and maybe they're right. I don't think so. That's not the way I'm betting.
- [36:51]
A
Yeah, well, if it blows over, it'll blow over with this like air gap period of 60 days at a minimum. I mean, the wells are shut in right now. They've had to shut in the wells. That has consequences of, you know, to bring them back into production. So, so that's, that's another delay. But even if you assume the shortest possible delay, you know, we're looking at 47 days. If it just opened today and it starts flowing again. And these, because the tankers move at bicycle speed, you know, it takes a long time to get, for them to get there. And the last one already arrived in America. We're not getting any more, you know, from there of the, of the, of that we consume from there. And the last one arrives in Australia, I think, on the 20th, and it's already arrived in Europe, so they're not getting any more. There's this air gap of just not fuel. And so I don't think we need a two years of this in order to cause an economic depression. You know, it could happen fast.
- [37:52]
B
No. And as the lack of fuel and energy causes numerous bankruptcies, businesses to go bankrupt. Those businesses are very hard to unbankrupt. And economic production will go down, welfare roles will go, savings will be eviscerated and so forth.
- [38:15]
A
And tax receipts will get crushed, which
- [38:19]
B
means the federal will have to be printing up much, much more money than they are right now. And Trump seems surrounded by the sycophants that he's thoroughly surrounded with and not getting reliable or any information from people that disagree with them. He impresses me. I think he thinks he's like Caesar. Not that he knows anything about history. I'm sure he doesn't, but he's like Caesar when he came to the Forum that day. And in Shakespeare's play, somebody comes up to Caesar and says, caesar, today is the eyes of March. The eyes of March have come. And he says, and nothing's happened. And, and the other guy says I Caesar, the ides have come, but not yet gone. And that's true.
- [39:05]
A
20, 26, 100%. And you know, and the other thing as I talk about in the article, it's that Trump, despite what people might think, was well aware of the consequences of, of attacking Iran. It was. I, in the article, I share proof that the Iranian parliament, the irgc, both said that they would close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked. CENTCOM commander says there would be the default response, that they would close it if they attacked. Israeli officials and intelligence people also said the same thing all happened this year before the attack. It was a known thing, cause and effect, that the effect would be the straight of Hormuz close, the further effects being gigantic economic consequences. And so he knew and thought it was worthwhile anyway. Or in fact it was his objective to close the straight. And it looks more and more like his objective when he goes. Now we're doing a blockade, you know,
- [40:17]
B
and the only winner from this dust up is really going to be Israel because if Iran is destroyed or defanged, then there are no significant state actors to attack Israel anymore. Unless they antagonize Turkey enough, which they might do yet, but I think that's part of Israel's plan. They had, they had their, their pal, the Great Satan, take out Libya and take out Syria and take out Iraq. Okay, well what's left since they're acting on Lebanon themselves? Well, I, I guess Iran's next on the dance card.
- [41:01]
A
Yeah, well, and I, I did hear a good argument that China could come out of this in a, in a relative strength strengthened position. They do have the largest strategic petroleum reserve of anyone during this period of time. They've actually increased the reserve rather than wherever where we've been tapping it and selling it. So we take our strategic petroleum reserve and we're selling it on global markets right now. You know, they've actually increased theirs and you know, they have reduced their dependence on oil lot more than others. Like they, they have a process for converting coal into diesel. Not to say it would meet all the demand that they have, but I mean, they, they have the facilities to do that. And because the economic blowback is going to be so back to bad, bad for the US with this, even if we have more oil resiliency than most places. I mean, you just think about the fact that, you just think about the fact that the, the foreign holders of the US debt like Japan, which is the biggest holder. I still, I believe that they are. Are having problems with the yen. Might need to shore that up. So that might cause some to sell reserves or because of these incredible fuel costs and their absolute desperation to acquire fuel, they could be sellers of it. And you get a run on the bond market and that's the end. I mean, the game's up.
- [42:36]
B
Well, who really wants to own US Debt anyway? Because it's increasingly manifest that the US government is bankrupt a. And its currency is losing value really rapidly right now. So, yeah, there could be a panic out of the bond market for sure for just that reason.
- [42:57]
A
Well, and no doubt the inflation is going to explode from here, too. So the dollar is going to become more. Even worthless. More worthless over time.
- [43:04]
B
So, yeah, big, big trouble. But, well, hey, listen, it's well known Trump is playing 5D chess. And the stock market, as Pam Bondi said, is close to 50,000. In fact, I think she called the top. It wasn't 50,000 when she said that. She did.
- [43:23]
A
That is perfect timing.
- [43:24]
B
That was the bell ringing.
- [43:26]
A
Yeah, well, and. And also, you know, the City of London is on the run. So you gotta like, you know, you gotta like that part too. Yeah, City of London.
- [43:35]
B
Not to worry. I mean, listen, when I grow up, hopefully I'll learn to play 5G5 Beach House, too.
- [43:42]
A
Yeah, I hope so, too. All right. Anything else you wanted to add today, Doug? It's been from the conversation.
- [43:48]
B
I think we covered a lot of ground here. God, I can't wait to see what happens in the next week.
- [43:53]
A
Yeah, this. It's. At some point, the world is going to wake up to real shortage and it's going to change things for everyone right away. So prepare yourself.
- [44:05]
B
Yeah, but I can wait because it's going to be scary.
- [44:10]
A
It is going to be scary and it's gonna be most scary for those who haven't prepared. So if you got a little time, now's the time. Do what you can.
- [44:19]
B
Yeah.
- [44:19]
A
All right, well, thanks very much, Doug. We'll be back on Friday with more.